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Background the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing. Objective to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD. Methods data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges. Conclusions our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA associates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients has not been fully elucidated.Methods: We enrolled 2974 patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) from a prospective, observational CHB cohort to investigate the effect of serum HBV RNA, measured at study entry (baseline), on HCC development, using Cox regression analyses.Results: During median follow-up of 4.4 years, 90 patients developed HCC. Patients with detectable baseline HBV RNA (n = 2072) exhibited significantly higher HCC risk than those with undetectable level (5-year HCC incidence estimated by Kaplan-Meier method: 4.1% versus 1.8%, P = .009; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.21, P = .005). HBV RNA levels of 609-99 999 and ≥100 000 copies/mL were associated with incrementally increasing HCC risk (aHR = 2.15 and 3.05, respectively; P for trend = .003), compared to undetectable level (<609 copies/mL). Moreover, patients with single-detectable either HBV DNA or RNA and double-detectable DNA and RNA had 1.57- and 4.02-fold higher HCC risk, respectively, than those with double-undetectable DNA and RNA (P for trend = .001).Conclusions: High-level HBV RNA is associated with increased HCC risk in NAs-treated patients. Achieving undetectable HBV RNA may contribute to better clinical outcomes, indicating it could be a valuable endpoint of anti-HBV treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]