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Interest in regional economic issues coupled with advances in administrative data is driving the creation of new regional economic data. Many of these data series could be useful for nowcasting regional economic activity, but they suffer from a short (albeit constantly expanding) time series which makes incorporating them into nowcasting models problematic. Regional nowcasting is already challenging because the release delay on regional data tends to be greater than that at the national level, and 'short' data imply a 'ragged edge' at both the beginning and the end of regional data sets, which adds a further complication. In this paper, via an application to the UK, we investigate various ways of including a wide range of short data into a regional mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) model. These short data include hitherto unexploited regional value-added tax turnover data. We address the problem of the two ragged edges by estimating regional factors using different missing data algorithms that we then incorporate into our MF-VAR model. We find that nowcasts of regional output growth are generally improved when we condition them on the factors, but only when the regional nowcasts are produced before the national (UK-wide) output growth data are published. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The case of R v Stringer and Dean provides a unique insight into issues of dishonesty and possible jury nullification in offences designed to control corporate misbehaviour. The jury were unconvinced of the defendants' dishonest state of mind in the first (and to date only) case to be tried under the UK's cartel offence. This was despite no attempt being made to dispute the existence of the cartel or present evidence in their defence. The paper asks whether the trial highlights flaws in the concept of dishonesty or reflects a broader problem of jury nullification in offences relating to corporate misconduct. It concludes that although dishonesty is unpredictable and can be easily challenged in the context of business misconduct, there is also a significant danger that juries question the legitimacy of treating cartels and other forms of business misconduct as crime, regardless of how an offence is designed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern computed tomography (CT) databases are becoming an accepted resource for the practice and development of identification methods in forensic anthropology. However, the utility of 3D models created using free and open-source visualization software such as 3D Slicer has not yet been thoroughly assessed for morphoscopic biological profiling methods where virtual methods of analysis are becoming more common. This paper presents a study that builds on the initial findings from Robles et al. (2020) to determine the feasibility of estimating sex on stereolithic (STL) 3D cranial models produced from CT scans from a modern, living UK population (n  = 80) using equation 2 from the Walker's (2008) morphoscopic method. Kendall's coefficients of concordance (KCC) indicated substantial agreement using cranial features scores in an inter-observer test and a video-inter-observer test. Fleiss' Kappa scores showed moderate agreement (0.50) overall between inter-observer sex estimations, and for observer sex estimations in comparison to recorded sexes (0.56). It was found that novice users could virtually employ morphoscopic sex estimation methods effectively on STL 3D cranial models from modern individuals. This study also highlights the potential that digital databases of modern living populations can offer forensic anthropology. Key points First example of Walker's (2008) method applied to a living UK population. Open-source software is a valuable resource for crime reconstruction approaches. Male scoring bias was observed in method application. Forensic anthropologists would benefit from virtual anthropology training to use and interpret 3D models. Digital databases offer more ethical, diverse, modern populations for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Radiation Protection Council (RPC) was established in 2019, under the Royal Charter of the Society for Radiological Protection. The RPC holds the registers for three grades of professional registration—Chartered, Incorporated and Technical Radiation Protection Professional. Individual radiation protection practitioners may apply for registration through any society or organisation that has been accepted as a Licensee of the RPC. This paper will give an overview of the criteria used for registration at each level, along with the benefits of professional registration to individuals, employers, the radiation protection profession and the public. We will discuss the operation of the RPC and share the experience of its establishment, identifying key issues and potential pitfalls for other Societies wishing to go down this route. Future expectations for professional registration will be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background COVID-19 brought additional challenges to Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) decision-making, which was already a contentious issue. In the UK, reports of poor DNACPR decision-making and communication emerged in 2020, including from the regulator, the Care Quality Commission. This paper explores the experiences of people who discussed DNACPR with a healthcare professional on behalf of a relative during the coronavirus pandemic, with the aim of identifying areas of good practice and what needs to be improved. Methods a total of 39 people participated in semi-structured interviews via video conferencing software or telephone. Data were evaluated using Framework Analysis. Findings results are presented around three main themes: understanding, communication and impact. Participants' understanding about DNACPR was important, as those with better understanding tended to reflect more positively on their discussions with clinicians. The role of relatives in the decision-making process was a frequent source of misunderstanding. Healthcare professionals' communication skills were important. Where discussions went well, relatives were given clear explanations and the opportunity to ask questions. However many relatives felt that conversations were rushed. DNACPR discussions can have a lasting impact—relatives reported them to be significant moments in care journeys. Many relatives perceived that they were asked to decide whether their relative should receive CPR and described enduring emotional consequences, including guilt. Conclusion the pandemic has illuminated deficiencies in current practice around DNACPR discussion, which can have difficult to anticipate and lasting negative consequences for relatives. This research raises questions about the current approach to DNACPR decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides distribution free tests for detecting sample selection in conditional quantile functions. The first test is an omitted predictor test with the propensity score as the omitted variable. In the case of rejection we cannot distinguish between rejection due to genuine selection or to misspecification. Thus, we suggest a second test using only individuals with propensity score close to one. The latter relies on an 'identification at infinity' argument, but accommodates cases of irregular identification, and neither of the two tests requires a continuous exclusion restriction. We apply our procedure to test for selection in log hourly wages using UK survey data and derive an extension of the tests to the conditional mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forensic entomology contributes important information to criminal investigations. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate the hatching time of fly larvae based on the temperature profile at the crime scene and on experimental data on larval development, where larvae are exposed to a constant temperature. We develop a dynamic model to estimate the growth curve under time-varying temperature profiles and the corresponding hatching time at the crime scene. Asymptotic properties are provided for the proposed estimators, and we explore their robustness via simulations. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on data from two criminal cases from the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homelessness and precarious living conditions are on the rise across much of the Western world. This paper exploits quasi-exogenous variation in the affordability of rents due to a cut in rent subsidies for low-income households in the United Kingdom in April 2011. Using comprehensive district-level administrative data, we show that the affordability shock caused a significant increase in financial distress, evictions, property crimes, insecure temporary housing arrangements, statutory homelessness, and actual rough sleeping. The most notable rise in statutory homelessness is driven by families with children, lone parents, individuals with existing health conditions, and as a result of having been evicted. We estimate that the fiscal savings were low and shifted toward the local administration: Savings by the central government were partially offset by an increase in council spending to meet statutory obligations for homelessness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a quantitative general equilibrium evaluation of the repeal of Britain's Corn Laws in 1846. Using a detailed input-output matrix of the British economy in 1841, we find the abolition of Britain's tariff on imported grain left overall welfare roughly unchanged as the static efficiency gains are offset by terms-of-trade losses. Labourers and capital owners gained a slight amount at the expense of landowners. Combining these changes in factor payments with the different consumption patterns across income groups, we find that the top 10% of income earners lost while the bottom 90% of income earners gained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today's technological frontrunners are tomorrow's economic champions. In order to triumph in the global innovation race, nations go to great lengths to boost domestic innovation. An increasingly popular instrument of such government support is known as the 'R&D tax incentive'. Scholars have particularly noted its greater incentive impact on small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, correct use of this fiscal tool remains clouded by legal and economic complexities, often leading to misallocation of tax money. This study draws on the rich experience of the UK as a seasoned lawmaker in this field, to derive internationally transferrable policy lessons and principles that may be used in assessing and optimizing the potency of research and development tax incentives for SMEs. Following a theoretical analysis of the historical legal developments, annual government statistics, literature, and policy papers, this study argues that policymakers must take into account appropriateness, cost-efficiency, and accessibility in the design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of machine learning as an input into decision-making is on the rise, owing to its ability to uncover hidden patterns in large data and improve prediction accuracy. Questions have been raised, however, about the potential distributional impacts of these technologies, with one concern being that they may perpetuate or even amplify human biases from the past. Exploiting detailed credit file data for 800,000 UK borrowers, we simulate a switch from a traditional (logit) credit scoring model to ensemble machine-learning methods. We confirm that machine-learning models are more accurate overall. We also find that they do as well as the simpler traditional model on relevant fairness criteria, where these criteria pertain to overall accuracy and error rates for population subgroups defined along protected or sensitive lines (gender, race, health status, and deprivation). We do observe some differences in the way credit-scoring models perform for different subgroups, but these manifest under a traditional modelling approach and switching to machine learning neither exacerbates nor eliminates these issues. The paper discusses some of the mechanical and data factors that may contribute to statistical fairness issues in the context of credit scoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the local impact of various forms of fiscal and monetary support for UK-based companies in the context of disruption caused by COVID-19 and associated public health restrictions, including support for household incomes (and therefore private consumption) via the 'furlough' scheme, the Covid Corporate Financing Facility and various national and local business support schemes. It shows that the economic crisis associated with the pandemic has been construed to justify interventions that preserve the spatially uneven status quo of the UK's model of economic development, protecting business from harms arising, apparently, from the public's reaction to the pandemic. To some extent, COVID-19 has been treated as a localised phenomenon that the national economy requires protection from. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous development of hydrogen-electrolyser and fuel-cell technologies not only reduces their investment and operating costs but also improves their technical performance to meet fast-acting requirements of electrical grid balancing services such as frequency-response services. In order to project the feasibility of co-locating a hydrogen-storage system with a wind farm for the dynamic regulation frequency-response provision in Great Britain, this paper develops a modelling framework to coordinate the wind export and frequency responses to the main grid and manage the interaction of the electrolyser, compressor, storage tank and fuel cell within the hydrogen-storage system by respecting the market mechanisms and the balance and conversion of power and hydrogen flows. Then the revenue of frequency-response service provision and a variety of costs induced by the hydrogen-storage system are translated into the net profit of the co-location system, which is maximized by optimizing the capacities of hydrogen-storage-system components, hydrogen-storage levels that guide the hydrogen restoration via operational baselines and the power interchange between a wind-farm and hydrogen-storage system, as well as the capacities tendered for low- and high-frequency dynamic regulation services. The developed modelling framework is tested based on a particular 432-MW offshore wind farm in Great Britain combined with the techno-economics of electrolysers and fuel cells projected for 2030 and 2050 scenarios. The optimized system configuration and operation are compared between different operating scenarios and discussed alongside the prospect of applying hydrogen-storage systems for frequency-response provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop an inferential method based on conformal prediction, which can wrap around any survival prediction algorithm to produce calibrated, covariate-dependent lower predictive bounds on survival times. In the Type I right-censoring setting, when the censoring times are completely exogenous, the lower predictive bounds have guaranteed coverage in finite samples without any assumptions other than that of operating on independent and identically distributed data points. Under a more general conditionally independent censoring assumption, the bounds satisfy a doubly robust property which states the following: marginal coverage is approximately guaranteed if either the censoring mechanism or the conditional survival function is estimated well. The validity and efficiency of our procedure are demonstrated on synthetic data and real COVID-19 data from the UK Biobank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following Greta Thunberg's school strike in Stockholm in August 2018 and the October 2018 'declaration of rebellion' by activists in the UK, 2019 saw several climate protest movements rise to public attention, including Fridays for Future (FFF), Extinction Rebellion (XR), and the US Sunrise Movement. What is striking about them is that they rather bluntly refer to science in their campaigns. In this paper, we present an in-depth and comparative study of how the new climate protest movements relate to scientific evidence. Employing a narrative analysis of different types of data (websites, press releases, and media coverage), we study the movements' understandings of 'the science' as well as of science's role in policy processes. We find that the movements in their initial phase predominantly rely on science for their legitimation and adopt a scientific worldview with very little 'green ambivalence'. Notably, FFF and XR hold a deficit model of existing climate communication and enact roles as science communicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education has recently been identified as a sector of concern by the UK National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC). In 2021, the NCSC reported that universities and higher education institutions (HEI) had been exponentially targeted by cyber-criminals. Existing challenges were amplified or highlighted over the course of the global pandemic when universities struggled to continue to function through hybrid and remote teaching provision that relied heavily on their digital estate and services. Despite the value of the sector and the vulnerabilities within it, higher education has received relatively little attention from the cybersecurity research community. Over 2 years, we carried out numerous interventions and engagements with the UK higher education sector. Through interviews with cybersecurity practitioners working in the sector as well as roundtables, and questionnaires, we conducted a qualitative and quantitative analysis of threat intelligence sharing, which we use as a proxy for measuring and analysing collaboration. In a unique approach to studying collaboration in cybersecurity, we utilized social network analysis. This paper presents the study and our findings about the state of cybersecurity in UK universities. It also presents some recommendations for future steps that we argue will be necessary to equip the higher education sector to continue to support UK national interests going forward. Key findings include the positive inclination of those working in university cybersecurity to collaborate as well as the factors that impede that collaboration. These include management and insurance constraints, concerns about individual and institutional reputational damage, a lack of trusted relationships, and the lack of effective mechanisms or channels for sectoral collaboration. In terms of the network itself, we found that it is highly fragmented with a very small number of the possible connections active, none of the organizations we might expect to facilitate collaboration in the network are playing a significant role, and some universities are currently acting as key information bridges. For these reasons, any changes that might be led by sectoral bodies such as Jisc, UCISA or government bodies such as NCSC, would need to go through these information brokers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elites often use merit to explain, justify, and make sense of their advantaged positions. But what exactly do they mean by this? In this paper, we draw on 71 interviews with elites in Denmark and the UK to compare self-justifications of meritocratic legitimacy. Our results indicate that while elites in both countries are united by a common concern to frame their merits as spontaneously recognized by others (rather than strategically promoted by themselves), the package of attributes they foreground vary significantly. In the UK, elites tend to be "talent meritocrats" who foreground their unique capacity for ideational creativity or risk taking, innately good judgment, and "natural" aptitude, intelligence, or academic ability. In contrast, in Denmark, elites are more likely to be "hard work meritocrats" who emphasize their unusual work ethic, extensive experience (as a signal of accumulated hard work), and contributions outside of work, particularly in civil society. We tentatively argue that one explanation for this cross-national variation is the role that different channels of elite recruitment play in amplifying legitimate notions of merit. In the UK, for example, elite private schools act to nurture ideas of exceptionalism and natural talent, whereas in Denmark elite employers socialize the connection between hard work and success. These findings suggest that nationally specific understandings of merit can have quite different implications for the legitimation of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the literature on domestic abuse focuses on those in intimate partner relationships or ex-partners, however, in the UK the Home Office definition also includes those in familial relationships. The Domestic Abuse, Stalking, and Harassment and Honour-Based Violence Risk Assessment assumes homogeneous risk factors across all relationships. This paper therefore examines the risk factors for repeat victimization of domestic abuse by relationship type between the victim and perpetrator in a UK police force. Using police-recorded domestic abuse incident and crime data, a logistic regression model found that the most similar repeat victimization risk profiles for 14,519 victims were amongst partners and ex-partners, with both relationships demonstrating the greatest degree of gender asymmetry, compared with other familial relationships. Physical violence was the strongest predictor of repeat victimization and was a statistically significant predictor for ex-partners, partners, and all familial relationships. Coercive behaviour was also a significant predictor for all relationships apart from partners, but not at the same magnitude as physical abuse. Recognizing the difference in risk by relationship type may assist the police in deciding the most appropriate response and interventions to reduce the risk of further harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the question of how police-related AI projects and data projects in general are normatively assessed in the UK. After locating data ethics in relation to policing ethics, I shall consider the workings of perhaps the leading regional data ethics committee in the UK. I go on to consider the approach of another committee that might in the future provide national data ethics advice for the police. Finally, I summarize the normative ethics frameworks in use in the two committees and their heavy reliance on the concepts of necessity and proportionality. I suggest that these concepts may have to be supplemented by systematic thinking about varieties of harm and the way in which severe harm may generate obligations to prevent it, where prevention may be assisted by AI models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households' eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Lowering the strength of alcohol products could lead to less alcohol being bought and drunk. In its prevention White Paper, the UK Government aims to promote a significant increase in the availability of alcohol-free and low-alcohol products by 2025. Methods Through descriptive analysis and ARIMA modelling of >4 million alcohol purchases from 69 803 British households, we study the potential impact of lower strength alcohol products in reducing household purchases of grams of alcohol over 2015–2019. Households are divided into predominantly beer, wine or spirits purchasers. Results Over 5 years, there were decreases in purchases of grams of alcohol within beer amongst beer-purchasing households and increases in purchases of grams of alcohol within wine and spirits amongst, respectively, wine- and spirits-purchasing households. Almost all the changes were due to beer-purchasing households buying less regular strength beer, and wine and spirits-purchasing households buying, respectively, more regular strength wine and spirits, rather than increases in purchases of no- and low-alcohol products. Conclusions In general, lower strength alcohol products have not contributed to British households buying fewer grams of alcohol over the 5-year follow-up period during 2015–2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a dynamic latent factor model to investigate the determinants of not in education, employment or training (NEET) status among adolescents in the United Kingdom. We bring together within one framework various determinants of NEET status, such as educational achievements, non‐cognitive skills, family socio‐economic factors, aspirations, mental health and local labour market conditions. We model the educational progress over multiple periods through the life of the young person, up to the completion of compulsory schooling. By taking into account this progression, we can determine the direct and indirect impacts of different determinants of NEET status, and the stage in the life of the young person at which each determinant is important. Our findings suggest that cognitive ability (as measured by educational achievements) remains the key predictor of NEET status. Further, while a range of individual and family factors determines NEET status, the impact of most of these factors is largely indirect, through ability formation and not necessarily direct. To gauge the relative contributions of various determinants, we conduct simulations to predict the probability of the young person being NEET under different scenarios and assumptions. The exercise indicates that the effects of aspirations of the young person, their school engagement, and the local youth unemployment rate on the likelihood of the young person being NEET are as large as boosting their cognitive skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the UK, the introduction of austerity measures for public services has intensified the thinking around inter-organizational collaboration between emergency services and other public and/or private sector organizations. Theoretically, while collaborative benefits are held up as beacons that drive organizations to participate in inter-organizational arrangements, a high number of such arrangements fail. In this paper, we explored the factors that influenced the collaboration process in the context of developing 'collaborative information infrastructures', from an organizational and collaboration level perspective, via a multiple case study approach. Our findings offer insights into how policymakers and public managers could improve their practices by considering their approach towards, and impact of, these factors when implementing collaborative projects in information technology and information systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prevention and elimination of modern slavery is a priority of this era, eliciting responses at an international level and in domestic laws. The duty of organisations to ensure transparency in their supply chains is the strongest representation of corporate responsibility in this field. Less attention has been given to the current/potential role of insolvency mechanisms, in relation to companies' commission of modern slavery offences, and in relation to their failure to comply with their supply-chain obligations. This paper engages with this novel question by examining the proposition to incorporate a directors' disqualification sanction into the United Kingdom framework governing companies' modern slavery supply chain obligations. This represents an opportunity, insofar as the disqualification regime is ostensibly well-placed to address weaknesses in companies' compliance with their responsibilities. However, it represents a challenge in that adoption and implementation would have to navigate drawbacks such as the limitations of existing grounds for disqualification and potential weaknesses in the design and enforcement of a bespoke sanction. Moreover, it should confront uncertainty as to whether disqualification is an effective tool for preventing misconduct by the professional/executive class of managers at the helm of large companies. Increased emphasis on regulating the human rights obligations of companies makes it imperative that this question is addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade-disseminated Phytophthora species are implicated in a recent upsurge of Phytophthora diseases in the UK and the establishment and spread of these pathogens in the wider UK environment via diseased propagation material. The costs and benefits of introducing best practices in the nursery sector and for society at large were explored in relation to avoiding potential impacts of introductions of new pathogens in the wider woodland environment. The analysis formed part of a wider project on the drivers of introduction and spread of Phytophthora species and opportunities for mitigation by plant nurseries. The effect in reducing the risk of introductions of new pathogens is not easily quantified, but the shorter the interval between avoided outbreaks, the greater the benefit of introducing best practices. The maximum interval between avoided outbreaks for the benefits to exceed the costs from a nursery perspective can be estimated. The results indicate that the benefits of introducing nursery best practices are unlikely to outweigh the costs from a nursery perspective where Phytophthora alone is considered. The analysis is extended by also considering benefits in reducing risks of Xylella. Scenario analysis based upon modelling harvested wood and carbon impacts is then used to investigate potential costs that would be expected to be borne by society in the event of the introduction and spread of a new Phytophthora species affecting either oak or Sitka spruce stands in Britain. The results indicate the magnitude of the externality involved, with the cost of an outbreak affecting oak estimated at around £500 million and one affecting Sitka spruce at £11 300 million. While approaches taken in the paper are exploratory, there seems a strong case for some social incentives or control in the nursery sector, to reduce the probability of new diseases infecting British forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we develop a method based on model-X knockoffs to find conditional associations that are consistent across environments, while controlling the false discovery rate. The motivation for this problem is that large datasets may contain numerous associations that are statistically significant and yet misleading, as they are induced by confounders or sampling imperfections. However, associations replicated under different conditions may be more interesting. In fact, sometimes consistency provably leads to valid causal inferences even if conditional associations do not. Although the proposed method is widely applicable, in this paper we highlight its relevance to genome-wide association studies, in which robustness across populations with diverse ancestries mitigates confounding due to unmeasured variants. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by simulations and applications to UK Biobank data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the development of the impact of family background on young people's political engagement during adolescence and early adulthood in order to test a number of hypotheses derived from the impressionable years and family socialization perspectives. The study analyses data of the British Household Panel Study and Understanding Society to assess these hypotheses. Political interest and voting intentions are used as outcomes of political engagement. The study finds parental education to have no effect on initial levels of these outcomes at age 11 but to be positively related to the change in these outcomes between ages 11 and 15. This indicates that the effect of parental education becomes stronger over time and that social disparities in political engagement are widening significantly during early adolescence. In contrast, parental political engagement is positively related to initial levels of voting intentions at age 11 but not related to the change in voting intentions between ages 11 and 15, which supports the hypothesis drawn from the family socialization perspective. Neither parental education nor parental political engagement are related to post-16 changes in political engagement. These results point to early adolescence as a crucial period for the manifestation of social inequalities in political engagement. They provisionally suggest that the influence of parental education runs through educational conditions in lower secondary and that these conditions could play an important role in amplifying the said inequalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sound of our speech is influenced by the places we come from. Great Britain contains a wide variety of distinctive accents which are of interest to linguistics. In particular, the 'a' vowel in words like 'class' is pronounced differently in the North and the South. Speech recordings of this vowel can be represented as formant curves or as mel‐frequency cepstral coefficient curves. Functional data analysis and generalised additive models offer techniques to model the variation in these curves. Our first aim was to model the difference between typical Northern and Southern vowels /æ/ and /ɑ/, by training two classifiers on the North‐South Class Vowels dataset collected for this paper. Our second aim is to visualise geographical variation of accents in Great Britain. For this we use speech recordings from a second dataset, the British National Corpus (BNC) audio edition. The trained models are used to predict the accent of speakers in the BNC, and then we model the geographical patterns in these predictions using a soap film smoother. This work demonstrates a flexible and interpretable approach to modelling phonetic accent variation in speech recordings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Given the globally ageing population, care homes have an important role in delivering palliative and end-of-life care. Advance care planning (ACP) is promoted to improve the quality of end-of-life care in this setting. While many professionals can be involved in ACP, little is known about what influences multi-professional involvement and how multi-professional working impacts the ACP process in the UK. This study investigated multi-professional practice in relation to ACP in nursing homes. Design and methods An ethnography was undertaken in two UK nursing homes using multiple methods of data collection: observations, interviews and document review. Participants included the following: nursing home residents (n  = 6), relatives (n  = 4), nursing home staff (n  = 19), and visiting health and social care professionals (n  = 7). Analysis integrated thematic analysis, mapping of resident ACP trajectories and documentary analysis. Findings This paper suggests that multi-professional and relatives' involvement in ACP was disjointed. Continuity and coordination were disrupted by misalignment of visiting professional and nursing home organisational structures. Findings show a 'knotworking' approach to teamwork and power imbalance between nursing home staff and visiting professionals, such as general practitioners. While residents wished their relatives to be involved in their ACP, this was not formally recognised, and limited support existed to facilitate their involvement. Conclusion The structure and organisation of multi-professional and relatives' involvement in ACP led to fragmentation of the process. This marginalised the voice of both the resident and nursing home staff, thereby limiting ACP as a tool to enhance quality of end-of-life care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This paper presents insights into patient experiences of changes in workforce composition due to increasing deployment in general practice of practitioners from a number of different professional disciplines (skill mix). We explore these experiences via the concept of 'patient illness work'; how a patient's capacity for action is linked to the work arising from healthcare. Methods We conducted four focus group interviews with Patient Participation Group members across participating English general practitioner practices. Thematic analysis and a theoretical lens of illness work were used to explore patients' attempts to understand and navigate new structures, roles and ways to access healthcare. Results Participants' lack of knowledge about incoming practitioners constrained their agency in accessing primary care. They reported both increased and burdensome illness work as they were given responsibility for navigating and understanding new systems of access while simultaneously understanding new practitioner roles. Conclusions While skill mix changes were not resisted by patients, they were keen to improve their agency in capacity to access, by being better informed about newer practitioners to accept and trust them. Some patients require support to navigate change, especially where new systems demand specific capacities such as technological skills and adaptation to unfamiliar practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a significant diversity in approach to 'resilience' in the context of mental health recovery following experiences of psychosis, varying from clinically measurable outcomes to a personal trait within a recovery 'journey'. Given the contested nature of resilience within mental health literature, this study aimed to complete a scoping review to synthesise understandings of resilience by individuals with experiences of psychosis. Drawing on the holistic and person-centred principles that underpin social work approaches to mental distress, these perspectives are considered in the statutory, policy and critical contexts of British social work, establishing learning for practice. A meta-synthesis of qualitative studies was completed, drawing on searches of five databases (Social Care Online, APA PsychInfo, Cinahl, Medline and Web of Science), identifying twelve relevant papers. A thematic analysis identified three overarching themes (personal, social and professional factors) and eight associated sub-themes (personal responsibility, use of experience, coping strategies, peer support, social relationships, contribution, relationships with professionals and structured support). The study identifies systemic and life-course approaches as empowering service user engagements with psychosis, recovery and resilience, suggesting that the social work profession is well placed to engage with resilience enhancement in the context of mental health recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forum shows that I correctly diagnosed the place that 'people's war' has in the historiography of the Second World War; that, if anything, I underestimated the grip that the connected series of beliefs about 'people's war' have come to have over some historians of the British Second World War; and how difficult it is to start a conversation about framing assumptions and the nature of the historiography of the war. In this response I aim to get above the din of detail and try to understand the underlying positions being taken by the respondents. I will try to tease out their rather hidden assumptions, in order to clarify better what is at issue and at stake, thereby making a fresh attempt to take this discussion forward. I will also extend the discussion by considering works that have already rejected the conceptualisation of 'people's war' defended in this forum. I hope that my original paper and the forum itself will together make the case that we need fresh ways of thinking about the British Second World War, as well as suggest that new ways are already in being and that the concept of 'people's war' as currently used by many historians needs to be abandoned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

'Right to Buy', a large-scale natural experiment whereby incumbent tenants in public housing could buy properties at heavily subsidised prices, increased the United Kingdom homeownership rate by over 10 percentage points between its 1980 introduction and the 1990s. This paper studies the impact of this reform on crime by leveraging exogenous variation in eligibility for the policy. Results show that Right to Buy generated significant property crime reductions. Behavioural changes of incumbent tenants and renovation of public properties were the main drivers of this crime reduction. This is evidence of a novel means by which subsidised homeownership and housing policy can reduce criminality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the United Kingdom and the EU in December 2020 on UK–EU trade in goods up to December 2021. The 2016 referendum introduced uncertainty, but new trade barriers between the United Kingdom and the EU were not put in place until the new agreement, the TCA, entered into force in January 2021. Using a set of different econometric techniques, and looking up to the end of the first year of the implementation of the TCA, we find no evidence that the 2016 referendum had any impact on aggregate UK–EU trade relative to comparator trade flows. On the other hand, our results show that the TCA reduced UK trade with the EU, but asymmetrically for exports and imports. After a sharp drop of around 41% in January 2021, UK exports to the EU quickly recovered in the following months. This pattern of recovery was not the case for UK imports from the EU, which were negatively impacted throughout 2021, with a cumulative loss over the first year of implementation between −24% and −28%. Asymmetric effects between exports and imports do not appear to be driven by difference in product composition of the two flows. Instead, we find evidence that a plausible explanation for these differential effects is the relative importance of the EU market for UK firms, in comparison to the importance of the UK market for EU firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the impact of digital technology on professional work? This paper addresses this question by developing a theory on professional jurisdictional control, which we define as a profession's power to maintain or shift from existing jurisdictional settlements in the face of external disturbances. Digital technology is a disturbance, and who ends up undertaking digital tasks depends on the nature of professional jurisdictional control. With protective jurisdictional control, the profession engages in full or subordinate jurisdiction, delegating new tasks to subordinate semiprofessionals. By contrast, with connective jurisdictional control, the profession prefers settlements by division of labor or advisory links, enabling equal-status professions to work together. Using a large and representative database of online job postings, we find evidence for this hypothesis. Empirically, we deploy three ways to gauge the nature of professional jurisdictional control: first, by comparing traditional law firms and alternative business structure firms in the UK; second, by contrasting the US (with protective jurisdictional control) and the UK; and third, by examining the legal sector (in which the legal profession dominates) and non-legal sectors. We also find that protective (connective) jurisdictional control is associated with lower (higher) pay premia for digital skills, consistent with theory. Our findings highlight the mediating role of professional jurisdictional control to inform the future of work debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migrants in the UK from the Central and Eastern European states that acceded to the European Union in 2004 and 2007 often have close proximity to precarity. This contribution illustrates that the positioning of the migrants in the casualised labour market has not occurred by accident but has been brought about by the (disingenuous) way in which nationals of the accession states were permitted access to the UK labour market. The positioning has been further maintained through the increasingly restrictive direction of the intertwined EU-UK response to claims for support from vulnerable EU migrant citizens. This piece presents the idea of 'confined labour market citizenship' as a way to understand the way many migrants have experienced working and living in the UK in the years following EU enlargement. This concept, it is argued, is able to capture: the role of the UK state as it regulated post-accession migration rules and implemented laws relating to social security entitlement; the influence of the broader EU framework on free movement and citizenship of the Union; and the impact of employers 'on the ground' in creating and exacerbating conditions of precarity and exploitation. The analysis throughout the paper exposes how EU8 and EU2 migrants have served as scapegoats for the result of the Brexit referendum, deflecting attention from the instrumentalisation of the migration issue by politicians. They have also been guinea pigs, testing out a confined version of EU citizenship with less tolerance for those in precarious and insecure work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity rates in the United Kingdom, and around the world, are high and rising. They are higher, and rising faster, amongst people growing up and living in deprivation. These patterns raise potential concerns about both market failures and equity. There is much that policy can do to address these concerns. However, policy can also do harm if it is poorly targeted or has unintended consequences. In order to design effective policies we need an understanding of who we are trying to target, and for what reasons. This paper provides an overview of some of the evidence, and some recent policy initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current COVID-19 pandemic confines people to their homes, disrupting the fragile social fabric of deprived neighbourhoods and citizen's participation options. In deprived neighbourhoods, community engagement is central in building community resilience, an important resource for health and a prerequisite for effective health promotion programmes. It provides access to vulnerable groups and helps understand experiences, assets, needs and problems of citizens. Most importantly, community activities, including social support, primary care or improving urban space, enhance health through empowerment, strengthened social networks, mutual respect and providing a sense of purpose and meaning. In the context of inequalities associated with COVID-19, these aspects are crucial for citizens of deprived neighbourhoods who often feel their needs and priorities are ignored. In this perspectives paper, illustrated by a varied overview of community actions in the UK and The Netherlands, we demonstrate how citizens, communities and organizations may build resilience and community power. Based on in-depth discussion among the authors we distilled six features of community actions: increase in mutual aid and neighbourhood ties, the central role of community-based organizations (CBOs), changing patterns of volunteering, use of digital media and health promotion opportunities. We argue that in order to enable and sustain resilient and confident, 'disaster-proof', communities, areas which merit investment include supporting active citizens, new (digital) ways of community engagement, transforming formal organizations, alignment with the (local) context and applying knowledge in the field of health promotion in new ways, focussing on learning and co-creation with citizen initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an integrating decision support system (IDSS) for food security in the United Kingdom. In ever‐larger dynamic systems, such as the food system, it is increasingly difficult for decision makers (DMs) to effectively account for all the variables within the system that may influence the outcomes of interest under enactments of various candidate policies. Each of the influencing variables is likely, themselves, to be dynamic subsystems with expert domains supported by sophisticated probabilistic models. Recent increases in food poverty in the United Kingdom have raised the questions about the main drivers of food insecurity, how this may be changing over time and how evidence can be used in evaluating policy for decision support. In this context, an IDSS is proposed for household food security to allow DMs to compare several candidate policies which may affect the outcome of food insecurity at the household level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure is central to many aspects of policy, and this focus has survived the impact of Covid-induced expenditure. The paper examines the scope for Brexit to allow infrastructure planning to be more devolved, consider demand-side and nature-based solutions, and become more competitive. It concludes that Brexit offers the opportunity for a more system-based approach to infrastructure planning and delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the possible distributional impacts of new trade barriers associated with the new Trade and Cooperation Agreement governing relations between the UK and EU after Brexit. We use a model of labour demand that incorporates input–output links across industries, and that allows for demand substitution by firms and consumers and worker reallocation across industries. We find that workers' exposure is moderately increasing across the earnings distribution. Exposure is greater for men than for women as they are more likely to work in manufacturing industries that are relatively harder hit by new trade barriers. Looking across areas, we find that exposure to new Brexit trade barriers is uncorrelated with measures of local deprivation and the impacts of the recent Covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the key questions facing immigration policy-makers is which jobs should be eligible for work visas. This question has dominated discussions about the post-Brexit immigration system, which has focused in particular on the issue of shortages. While the UK government resisted calls to open labour migration routes in low-wage or low-skilled jobs with high demand for foreign workers, workers in middle- and high-skilled jobs that are deemed to face a labour market shortage can qualify with significantly lower wages. This paper examines the arguments for and against using immigration policy to prioritize labour migration in 'shortage occupations'. It argues that the idea is politically appealing but problematic in practice. Shortages are more difficult to measure satisfactorily than policy-makers may imagine, and different methodologies produce different results. This makes it unwise to develop an immigration policy that depends too heavily on the notion that the shortage list is an accurate reflection of what is really happening in the labour market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant yet overlooked aspect in many states' extraterritorial migration control efforts is their immigration liaison officers (ILOs) posted to foreign jurisdictions, who make decisions and take actions abroad to support their country's immigration goals. Importantly, this occurs within an interconnected system of nation-states, requiring mid-level officials from multiple states to co-operate. Yet, there is very little analysis on what happens in these foreign jurisdictions where officials from across national and organisational boundaries interact and negotiate the management of migration flows. This article aims to fill this gap by drawing on empirical research on the UK's overseas immigration liaison network. Analysis is based on original interviews with Home Office officials, Freedom of Information requests, and documentary research. I find that UK ILOs are a main contact point between the country they represent, local authorities in the host state, and Global North counterparts from other states, making them key sites for the transnational exchange of information, 'intelligence' and 'know-how'. In this way, they are like 'knowledge brokers', contributing to a 'global–local diffusion' of ideas. Despite power hierarchies, this is not a one-way transfer from the Global North to the South. Instead, I find Global South actors are also key subjects in this process. By going beyond policies on paper and formal inter-state agreements, this study offers important insight into a largely hidden yet central part of a state's extraterritorial migration control: informal spaces of negotiation between mid-level officials from across national and organisational boundaries who negotiate and contest migration control practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background vaccination uptake in the UK and increased care home testing are likely affecting care home visitation. With scant scientific evidence to date, the aim of this longitudinal qualitative study was to explore the impact of both (vaccination and testing) on the conduct and experiences of care home visits. Methods family carers of care home residents with dementia and care home staff from across the UK took part in baseline (October/November 2020) and follow-up interviews (March 2021). Public advisers were involved in all elements of the research. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results across 62 baseline and follow-up interviews with family carers (n  = 26; 11) and care home staff (n  = 16; 9), five core themes were developed: delayed and inconsistent offers of face-to-face visits; procedures and facilitation of visits; variable uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine; misinformation, education and free choice; frustration and anger among family carers. The variable uptake in staff, compared to family carers, was a key factor seemingly influencing visitation, with a lack of clear guidance leading care homes to implement infection control measures and visitation rights differently. Conclusions we make five recommendations in this paper to enable improved care home visitation in the ongoing, and in future, pandemics. Visits need to be enabled and any changes to visiting rights must be used as a last resort, reviewed regularly in consultation with residents and carers and restored as soon as possible as a top priority, whilst more education needs to be provided surrounding vaccination for care home staff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a risen interest in heat recovery systems for building applications due to concerns about the energy crisis and global climate change. In this paper, the intention to understand the performance of a window thermoelectric heat pump/heat recovery system (Ecopump) for heating has been developed. An overview to the prototype design, heat transfer model, experimental parameters and environmental feasibility is discussed. The variation of MATLAB modelling results followed the same regularity as the experimental results. The MATLAB model along with Revit has been used to simulate the Ecopump's performance when installed in a sustainable house in the UK. From the calculation, Ecopump can provide 670 kWh heating energy and reduce 90.6 kg CO2 emissions per year. The proposed Ecopump system combined with window frame could be a promising technology to enhance space heating for domestic buildings while reducing energy consumption during daily ventilation. Further in situ experiments should be conducted to explore its comprehensive performance in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses promissory discourse for genome editing and human health in the UK, attending to the articulation of public goods and their beneficiary publics. Focusing on promissory reasoning about an emerging technology field as anticipatory and ethical considerations as integral to such debates, the notion of ethical regime as a mode of governance is applied to the concept of promissory regime. By analyzing key documents and interviews with opinion leaders—thus focusing on the discursive dimension—an enabling promissory ethical regime for genome editing and its contestation are identified. This regime posits scientific knowledge production now, and improved treatment or prevention of hereditary diseases later, as key goods of genome editing for human health and as a sociotechnical project worthy of support. Specific publics are created as beneficiaries. These publics and goods play out as ethical rationales for the promissory governance of the emerging field of human genome editing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Real-world secukinumab gastrointestinal-related adverse events (GIRAE) data during treatment for AS and PsA are lacking. We aimed to obtain this through baseline evaluation of pre-existing IBD rates and predictors of GIRAE. Methods Patient electronic and paper records commencing secukinumab from 10 UK hospitals between 2016 and 2019 were reviewed. GIRAE after initiation were defined as: definite [objective evidence of IBD (biopsy proven), clear temporal association, resolution of symptoms on drug withdrawal, no alternative explanation felt more likely], probable (as per definite, but without biopsy confirmation) or possible (gastrointestinal symptoms not fulfilling definite or probable criteria). Results Data for all 306 patients started on secukinumab were analysed: 124 (40.5%) AS and 182 (59.5%) PsA. Twenty-four of 306 (7.8%) experienced GIRAE after starting secukinumab. Amongst patients who developed GIRAE, four (1.3%) had definite, seven (2.3%) probable and 13 (4.2%) possible IBD. All definite cases were patients with AS and stopped secukinumab; two had pre-existing IBD and two (0.7%) were de novo cases of which one required surgical intervention. Seven patients (2.3%) had pre-existing diagnoses of IBD prior to initiation, of which five patients experienced GIRAE. Conclusion Absolute rates of new IBD in patients starting secukinumab are low. The majority of patients developing new GIRAE did not develop objective evidence of IBD or stop therapy. For patients with pre-existing IBD and AS the risk of GIRAE is much higher, and prescribing alternatives should be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development of genome-wide association studies, how to gain information from a large scale of data has become an issue of common concern, since traditional methods are not fully developed to solve problems such as identifying loci-to-loci interactions (also known as epistasis). Previous epistatic studies mainly focused on local information with a single outcome (phenotype), while in this paper, we developed a two-stage global search algorithm, Greedy Equivalence Search with Local Modification (GESLM), to implement a global search of directed acyclic graph in order to identify genome-wide epistatic interactions with multiple outcome variables (phenotypes) in a case–control design. GESLM integrates the advantages of score-based methods and constraint-based methods to learn the phenotype-related Bayesian network and is powerful and robust to find the interaction structures that display both genetic associations with phenotypes and gene interactions. We compared GESLM with some common phenotype-related loci detecting methods in simulation studies. The results showed that our method improved the accuracy and efficiency compared with others, especially in an unbalanced case–control study. Besides, its application on the UK Biobank dataset suggested that our algorithm has great performance when handling genome-wide association data with more than one phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1964, the UK government imposed an arms embargo on South Africa, which it maintained until the end of the white minority rule. What explains this embargo? Using mainly archival evidence, this paper demonstrates that domestic political dynamics in the United Kingdom mediated the influence of the transnational anti-apartheid and anti-colonial struggles on the British government. The United Kingdom imposed and maintained this embargo due in part to a domestic advocacy network, whose hub was the Anti-Apartheid Movement. The paper provides a comprehensive explanation of an important issue in British foreign policy, the anti-colonial struggle, and Southern Africa's history. There are theoretical implications for foreign policy analysis concerning the role of advocacy networks, interactions between local and global activism, the role of political parties' ideology and contestation, the effects on foreign policy of changes in a normative environment, the effects of norm contestation, and normative determinants of sanctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Despite insistent calls for more and better evidence to inform action to reduce health inequities, applied health research sensitive to these inequalities is rare. Recognising this problem, the Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Research and Care in the North West Coast (England) developed the Health Inequalities Assessment Toolkit (HIAT) to support those involved in health research to integrate equity into their work. Objective This paper reports on an evaluation of the extent to which HIAT enhances the equity focus of the work of users. Methods The evaluation used semi-structured interviews, focus groups and workshops (n  = 131 respondents including Public Advisers, university, NHS and local government partners). Routine data included HIAT feedback forms. Findings HIAT can help to strengthen the equity focus of applied health research by: increasing understanding of how socioeconomic inequities impact on health; building capacity for integrating equity into all aspects of research, implementation and capacity building; stimulating thinking on action to address local structural drivers of health inequalities; and increasing understanding of the positive contribution public involvement can make to research. Conclusion If we are to advance health equity goals delivering research and training needs to be combined with political commitment to create more equal societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]