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Accurate solar radiation nowcasting models are critical for the integration of the increasing solar energy in power systems. This work explored the benefits obtained by the blending of four all-sky-imagers (ASI)-based models, two satellite-images-based models and a data-driven model. Two blending approaches (general and horizon) and two blending models (linear and random forest (RF)) were evaluated. The relative contribution of the different forecasting models in the blended-models-derived benefits was also explored. The study was conducted in Southern Spain; blending models provide one-minute resolution 90 min-ahead GHI and DNI forecasts. The results show that the general approach and the RF blending model present higher performance and provide enhanced forecasts. The improvement in rRMSE values obtained by model blending was up to 30% for GHI (40% for DNI), depending on the forecasting horizon. The greatest improvement was found at lead times between 15 and 30 min, and was negligible beyond 50 min. The results also show that blending models using only the data-driven model and the two satellite-images-based models (one using high resolution images and the other using low resolution images) perform similarly to blending models that used the ASI-based forecasts. Therefore, it was concluded that suitable model blending might prevent the use of expensive (and highly demanding, in terms of maintenance) ASI-based systems for point nowcasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans, is a major disease of the potato crop with a strong negative impact on tuber yield and tuber quality. The control of late blight in conventional potato production systems is often through weekly application of prophylactic fungicides, moving away from a sustainable production system. In support of integrated pest management practices, machine learning algorithms were proposed as tools to forecast aerobiological risk level (ARL) of Phytophthora infestans (>10 sporangia/m3) as inoculum to new infections. For this, meteorological and aerobiological data were monitored during five potato crop seasons in Galicia (northwest Spain). Mild temperatures (T) and high relative humidity (RH) were predominant during the foliar development (FD), coinciding with higher presence of sporangia in this phenological stage. The infection pressure (IP), wind, escape or leaf wetness (LW) of the same day also were significantly correlated with sporangia according to Spearman's correlation test. ML algorithms such as random forest (RF) and C5.0 decision tree (C5.0) were successfully used to predict daily sporangia levels, with an accuracy of the models of 87% and 85%, respectively. Currently, existing late blight forecasting systems assume a constant presence of critical inoculum. Therefore, ML algorithms offer the possibility of predicting critical levels of Phytophthora infestans concentration. The inclusion of this type of information in forecasting systems would increase the exactitude in the estimation of the sporangia of this potato pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing of lake water quality assumes there is no universal method or algorithm that can be applied in a general way on all inland waters, which usually have different in-water components affecting their optical properties. Depending on the place and time of year, the lake dynamics, and the particular components of the water, non-tailor-designed algorithms can lead to large errors or lags in the quantification of the water quality parameters, such as the suspended mineral sediments, dissolved organic matter, and chlorophyll-a concentration. Selecting the most suitable algorithm for each type of water is not a simple matter. One way to make selecting the most suitable water quality algorithm easier on each occasion is by knowing ahead of time the type of water being handled. This approach is used, for instance, in the Lake Water Quality production chain of the Copernicus Global Land Service. The objective of this work is to determine which supervised classification approach might give the most accurate results. We use a dataset of manually labeled pixels on lakes and reservoirs in Eastern Spain. High-resolution images from the Multispectral Instrument sensor on board the ESA Sentinel-2 satellite, atmospherically corrected with the Case 2 Regional Coast Colour algorithm, are used as the basis for extracting the pixels for the dataset. Three families of different supervised classifiers have been implemented and compared: the K-nearest neighbor, decision trees, and support vector machine. Based on the results, the most appropriate for our study area is the random forest classifier, which was selected and applied on a series of images to derive the temporal series of the optical water types per lake. An evaluation of the results is presented, and an analysis is made using expert knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rain type classification into convective and stratiform is an essential step required to improve quantitative precipitation estimations by remote sensing instruments. Previous studies with Micro Rain Radar (MRR) measurements and subjective rules have been performed to classify rain events. However, automating this process by using machine learning (ML) models provides the advantages of fast and reliable classification with the possibility to classify rain minute by minute. A total of 20,979 min of rain data measured by an MRR at Das in northeast Spain were used to build seven types of ML models for stratiform and convective rain type classification. The proposed classification models use a set of 22 parameters that summarize the reflectivity, the Doppler velocity, and the spectral width (SW) above and below the so-called separation level (SL). This level is defined as the level with the highest increase in Doppler velocity and corresponds with the bright band in stratiform rain. A pre-classification of the rain type for each minute based on the rain microstructure provided by the collocated disdrometer was performed. Our results indicate that complex ML models, particularly tree-based ensembles such as xgboost and random forest which capture the interactions of different features, perform better than simpler models. Applying methods from the field of interpretable ML, we identified reflectivity at the lowest layer and the average spectral width in the layers below SL as the most important features. High reflectivity and low SW values indicate a higher probability of convective rain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New computational methods have emerged through science and technology to support the diagnosis of mental health disorders. Predictive models developed from machine learning algorithms can identify disorders such as schizophrenia and support clinical decision making. This research aims to compare the performance of machine learning algorithms: Decision Tree, AdaBoost, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and k-Nearest Neighbor in the prediction of hospitalized patients with schizophrenia. The data set used in the study contains a total of 11,884 electronic admission records corresponding to 6933 patients with various mental health disorders; these records belong to the acute units of 11 public hospitals in a region of Spain. Of the total, 5968 records correspond to patients diagnosed with schizophrenia (3002 patients) and 5916 records correspond to patients with other mental health disorders (3931 patients). The results recommend Random Forest with the best accuracy of 72.7%. Furthermore, this algorithm presents 79.6%, 72.8%, 72.7%, and 72.7% for AUC, precision, F1-Score, and recall, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the use of machine learning algorithms can classify hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in this population and help in the hospital management of this type of disorder, to reduce the costs associated with hospitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the relevant penetration of solar PV power plants, an accurate power generation forecasting of these installations is crucial to provide both reliability and stability of current grids. At the same time, PV monitoring requirements are more and more demanded by different agents to provide reliable information regarding performances, efficiencies, and possible predictive maintenance tasks. Under this framework, this paper proposes a methodology to evaluate different LoRa-based PV monitoring architectures and node layouts in terms of short-term solar power generation forecasting. A random forest model is proposed as forecasting method, simplifying the forecasting problem especially when the time series exhibits heteroscedasticity, nonstationarity, and multiple seasonal cycles. This approach provides a sensitive analysis of LoRa parameters in terms of node layout, loss of data, spreading factor and short time intervals to evaluate their influence on PV forecasting accuracy. A case example located in the southeast of Spain is included in the paper to evaluate the proposed analysis. This methodology is applicable to other locations, as well as different LoRa configurations, parameters, and networks structures; providing detailed analysis regarding PV monitoring performances and short-term PV generation forecasting discrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate identification of crops is essential to help environmental sustainability and support agricultural policies. This study presents the use of a Spanish radar mission, PAZ, to classify agricultural areas with a very high spatial resolution. PAZ was recently launched, and it operates at X band, joining the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) constellation along with TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X satellites. Owing to its novelty and its ability to classify crop areas (both taking individually its time series and blending with the Sentinel-1 series), it has been tested in an agricultural area of the central-western part of Spain during 2020. The random forest algorithm was selected to classify the time series under five alternatives of standalone/fused data. The map accuracy resulting from the PAZ series standalone was acceptable, but it highlighted the need for a denser time-series of data. The overall accuracy provided by eight PAZ images or by eight Sentinel-1 images was below 60%. The fusion of both sets of eight images improved the overall accuracy by more than 10%. In addition, the exploitation of the whole Sentinel-1 series, with many more observations (up to 40 in the same temporal window) improved the results, reaching an overall accuracy around 76%. This overall performance was similar to that obtained by the joint use of all the available images of the two frequency bands (C and X). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding forest dynamics at the stand level is crucial for sustainable management. Landsat time series have been shown to be effective for identification of drastic changes, such as natural disturbances or clear-cuts, but detecting subtle changes requires further research. Time series of six Landsat-derived vegetation indexes (VIs) were analyzed with the BFAST (Breaks for Additive Season and Trend) algorithm aiming to characterize the changes resulting from harvesting practices of different intensities (clear-cutting, cutting with seed-trees, and thinning) in a Mediterranean forest area of Spain. To assess the contribution of airborne laser scanner (ALS) data and the potential implications of it being after or before the detected changes, two scenarios were defined (based on the year in which ALS data were acquired (2010), and thereby detecting changes from 2005 to 2010 (before ALS data) and from 2011 to 2016 (after ALS data). Pixels identified as change by BFAST were attributed with change in VI intensity and ALS-derived statistics (99th height percentile and forest canopy cover) for classification with random forests, and derivation of change maps. Fusion techniques were applied to leverage the potential of each individual VI change map and to reduce mapping errors. The Tasseled Cap Brightness (TCB) and Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) indexes provided the most accurate results, the latter being more precise for thinning detection. Our results demonstrate the suitability of Landsat time series and ALS data to characterize forest stand changes caused by harvesting practices of different intensity, with improved accuracy when ALS data is acquired after the change occurs. Clear-cuttings were more readily detectable compared to cutting with seed-trees and thinning, detection of which required fusion approaches. This methodology could be implemented to produce annual cartography of harvesting practices, enabling more accurate statistics and spatially explicit identification of forest operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land fragmentation and small plots are the main features of the rural environment of Galicia (NW Spain). Smallholding limits land use management, representing a drawback in local forest planning. This study analyzes the potential use of multitemporal Sentinel-2 images to detect and control forest cuts in very small pine and eucalyptus plots located in southern Galicia. The proposed approach is based on the analysis of Sentinel-2 NDVI time series in 4231 plots smaller than 3 ha (average 0.46 ha). The methodology allowed us to detect cuts, allocate cut dates and quantify plot areas due to different cutting cycles in an uneven-aged stand. An accuracy of approximately 95% was achieved when the whole plot was cut, with an 81% accuracy for partial cuts. The main difficulty in detecting and dating cuts was related to cloud cover, which affected the multitemporal analysis. In conclusion, the proposed methodology provides an accurate estimation of cutting date and area, helping to improve the monitoring system in sustainable forest certifications to ensure compliance with forest management plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last several decades, thanks to improvements in and the diversification of open-access satellite imagery, land cover mapping techniques have evolved significantly. Notable changes in these techniques involve the automation of different steps, yielding promising results in terms of accuracy, class detection and efficiency. The most successful methodologies that have arisen rely on the use of multi-temporal data. Several different approaches have proven successful. In this study, one of the most recently developed methodologies is tested in the region of Galicia (in Northwestern Spain), with the aim of filling gaps in the mapping needs of the Galician forestry sector. The methodology mainly consists of performing a supervised classification of individual images from a selected time series and then combining them through aggregation using decision criteria. Several of the steps of the methodology can be addressed in multiple ways: pixel resolution selection, classification model building and aggregation methods. The effectiveness of these three tasks as well as some others are tested and evaluated and the most accurate and efficient parameters for the case study area are highlighted. The final land cover map that is obtained for Galicia has high accuracy metrics (an overall accuracy of 91.6%), which is in line with previous studies that have followed this methodology in other regions. This study has led to the development of an efficient open-access solution to support the mapping needs of the forestry sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial catastrophe resulting from the out-of-pocket payments necessary to access and use healthcare systems has been widely studied in the literature. The aim of this work is to predict the impact of the financial catastrophe a household will face as a result of out-of-pocket payments in long-term care in Spain. These predictions were made using machine learning techniques such as LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) penalized regression and elastic-net, as well as algorithms like k-nearest neighbors (KNN), MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), random forest, boosted trees and SVM (Support Vector Machine). The results reveal that all the classification methods performed well, with the complex models performing better than the simpler ones and showing no evidence of overfitting. Detecting and defining the profiles of individuals and families most likely to suffer from financial catastrophe is crucial in enabling the design of financial policies aimed at protecting vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]