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Predicting electricity production from renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic installations, is crucial for effective grid management and energy planning in the transition towards a sustainable future. This study proposes machine learning approaches for predicting electricity production from solar photovoltaic installations at a regional level in Italy, not using data on individual installations. Addressing the challenge of diverse data availability between pinpoint meteorological inputs and aggregated power data for entire regions, we propose leveraging meteorological data from the centroid of each Italian province within each region. Particular attention is given to the selection of the best input features, which leads to augmenting the input with 1-hour-lagged meteorological data and previous-hour power data. Several ML approaches were compared and examined, optimizing the hyperparameters through five-fold cross-validation. The hourly predictions encompass a time horizon ranging from 1 to 24 h. Among tested methods, Kernel Ridge Regression and Random Forest Regression emerge as the most effective models for our specific application. We also performed experiments to assess how frequently the models should be retrained and how frequently the hyperparameters should be optimized in order to comprise between accuracy and computational costs. Our results indicate that once trained, the model can provide accurate predictions for extended periods without frequent retraining, highlighting its long-term reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The differential diagnosis between uterine leiomyosarcomas and leiomyomas based on imaging represents one of the major challenges for gynecologists and radiologists. Currently, only histological examination can definitively resolve doubts in suspicious cases. The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning model that can support clinical decision making. One of the proposed approaches, i.e., using the general linear model (GLM) classifier, has been patented by our team and has demonstrated good performance in retrospective analyses, with predicted area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity on the test set ranging from 0.78 to 0.82, from 0.78 to 0.89, and from 0.67 to 0.87, respectively. The next step will involve validation at other medical centers and its prospective application. Background: The accurate discrimination of uterine leiomyosarcomas and leiomyomas in a pre-operative setting remains a current challenge. To date, the diagnosis is made by a pathologist on the excised tumor. The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning algorithm using radiomic data extracted from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images that could accurately distinguish leiomyosarcomas from leiomyomas. Methods: Pre-operative CECT images from patients submitted to surgery with a histological diagnosis of leiomyoma or leiomyosarcoma were used for the region of interest identification and radiomic feature extraction. Feature extraction was conducted using the PyRadiomics library, and three feature selection methods combined with the general linear model (GLM), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers were built, trained, and tested for the binary classification task (malignant vs. benign). In parallel, radiologists assessed the diagnosis with or without clinical data. Results: A total of 30 patients with leiomyosarcoma (mean age 59 years) and 35 patients with leiomyoma (mean age 48 years) were included in the study, comprising 30 and 51 lesions, respectively. Out of nine machine learning models, the three feature selection methods combined with the GLM and RF classifiers showed good performances, with predicted area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity ranging from 0.78 to 0.97, from 0.78 to 1.00, and from 0.67 to 0.93, respectively, when compared to the results obtained from experienced radiologists when blinded to the clinical profile (AUC = 0.73 95%CI = 0.62–0.84), as well as when the clinical data were consulted (AUC = 0.75 95%CI = 0.65–0.85). Conclusions: CECT images integrated with radiomics have great potential in differentiating uterine leiomyomas from leiomyosarcomas. Such a tool can be used to mitigate the risks of eventual surgical spread in the case of leiomyosarcoma and allow for safer fertility-sparing treatment in patients with benign uterine lesions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and monitoring the ecological quality of coastal waters is crucial for preserving marine ecosystems. Eutrophication is one of the major problems affecting the ecological state of coastal marine waters. For this reason, the control of the trophic conditions of aquatic ecosystems is needed for the evaluation of their ecological quality. This study leverages space-based Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument imagery (OLCI) to assess the ecological quality of Mediterranean coastal waters using the Trophic Index (TRIX) key indicator. In particular, we explore the feasibility of coupling remote sensing and machine learning techniques to estimate the TRIX levels in the Ligurian, Tyrrhenian, and Ionian coastal regions of Italy. Our research reveals distinct geographical patterns in TRIX values across the study area, with some regions exhibiting eutrophic conditions near estuaries and others showing oligotrophic characteristics. We employ the Random Forest Regression algorithm, optimizing calibration parameters to predict TRIX levels. Feature importance analysis highlights the significance of latitude, longitude, and specific spectral bands in TRIX prediction. A final statistical assessment validates our model's performance, demonstrating a moderate level of error (MAE of 0.51) and explanatory power (R2 of 0.37). These results highlight the potential of Sentinel-3 OLCI imagery in assessing ecological quality, contributing to our understanding of coastal water ecology. They also underscore the importance of merging remote sensing and machine learning in environmental monitoring and management. Future research should refine methodologies and expand datasets to enhance TRIX monitoring capabilities from space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the occurrence of erosive rain events and quantifying the corresponding soil loss is extremely useful in all applications where assessing phenomenon impacts is required. These problems, addressed in the literature at different spatial and temporal scales and according to the most diverse approaches, are here addressed by implementing random forest (RF) machine learning models. For this purpose, we used the datasets built through many years of soil loss observations at the plot-scale experimental site SERLAB (central Italy). Based on 32 features describing rainfall characteristics, the RF classifier has achieved a global accuracy of 84.8% in recognizing erosive and non-erosive events, thus demonstrating slightly higher performances than previously used (non-machine learning) methodologies. A critical performance is the percentage of erosive events correctly recognized to the observed total (72.3%). However, since the most relevant erosive events are correctly identified, we found only a slight underestimation of the total rainfall erosivity (91%). The RF regression model for estimating the event soil loss, based on three event features (runoff coefficient, erosivity, and period of occurrence), demonstrates better performances (RMSE = 2.30 Mg ha−1) than traditional regression models (RMSE = 3.34 Mg ha−1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy surgery has steadily increased in the treatment pathway of breast cancer (BC) patients due to its potential impact on both the morpho-functional and aesthetic type of the breast and the quality of life. Although recent studies have demonstrated how recent radiotherapy techniques have allowed a reduction of adverse events related to breast reconstruction, capsular contracture (CC) remains the main complication after post-mastectomy radio-therapy (PMRT). In this study, we evaluated the association of the occurrence of CC with some clinical, histological and therapeutic parameters related to BC patients. We firstly performed bivariate statistical tests and we then evaluated the prognostic predictive power of the collected data by using machine learning techniques. Out of a sample of 59 patients referred to our institute, 28 patients (i.e., 47%) showed contracture after PMRT. As a result, only estrogen receptor status (ER) and molecular subtypes were significantly associated with the occurrence of CC after PMRT. Different machine learning models were trained on a subset of clinical features selected by a feature importance approach. Experimental results have shown that collected features have a non-negligible predictive power. The extreme gradient boosting classifier achieved an area under the curve (AUC) value of 68% and accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values of 68%, 64%, and 74%, respectively. Such a support tool, after further suitable optimization and validation, would allow clinicians to identify the best therapeutic strategy and reconstructive timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afforestation is one of the most effective processes for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and combating global warming. Landsat data and machine learning approaches can be used to map afforestation (i) indirectly, by constructing two maps of the same area over different periods and then predicting changes, or (ii) directly, by constructing a single map and analyzing observations of change in both the response and remotely sensed variables. Of crucial importance, no comprehensive comparisons of direct and indirect approaches for afforestation monitoring are known to have been conducted to date. Afforestation maps estimated through the analysis of remotely sensed data may serve as intermediate products for guiding the selection of samples and the production of statistics. In this and similar studies, a huge effort is dedicated to collecting validation data. In turn, those validation datasets have varying sampling intensities in different areas, which complicates their use for assessing the accuracies of new maps. As a result, the work done to collect data is often not sufficiently exploited, with some validation datasets being used just once. In this study, we addressed two main aims. First, we implemented a methodology to reuse validation data acquired via stratified sampling with strata constructed from remote sensing maps. Second, we used this method for acquiring data for comparing map accuracy estimates and the precision of estimates for direct and indirect approaches for country-wide mapping of afforestation that occurred in Italy between 1985 and 2019. To facilitate these comparisons, we used Landsat imagery, random forest classification, and Google Earth Engine. The herein-presented method produced different accuracy estimates with 95% confidence interval and for different map classes. Afforestation accuracies ranged between 53 ± 5.9% for the indirect map class inside the buffer—defined as a stratum within 120 m of the forest/non-forest mask boundaries—and 26 ± 3.4% for the direct map outside the buffer. The accuracy in non-afforestation map classes was much greater, ranging from 87 ± 1.9% for the indirect map inside the buffer to 99 ± 1.3% for the direct map outside the buffer. Additionally, overall accuracies (with 95% CI) were estimated with large precision for both direct and indirect maps (87 ± 1.3% and 89 ± 1.6%, respectively), confirming (i) the effectiveness of the method we introduced for reusing samples and (ii) the relevance of remotely sensed data and machine learning for monitoring afforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between weather conditions and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The analysed data of CVD hospital admissions were part of the database of the Policlinico Giovanni XXIII of Bari (southern Italy) within a reference period of 4 years (2013–2016). CVD hospital admissions have been aggregated with daily meteorological recordings for the reference time interval. The decomposition of the time series allowed us to filter trend components; consequently, the non-linear exposure–response relationship between hospitalizations and meteo-climatic parameters was modelled with the application of a Distributed Lag Non-linear model (DLNM) without smoothing functions. The relevance of each meteorological variable in the simulation process was determined by means of machine learning feature importance technique. The study employed a Random Forest algorithm to identify the most representative features and their respective importance in predicting the phenomenon. As a result of the process, the mean temperature, maximum temperature, apparent temperature, and relative humidity have been determined to be the most suitable meteorological variables as the best variables for the process simulation. The study examined daily admissions to emergency rooms for cardiovascular diseases. Using a predictive analysis of the time series, an increase in the relative risk associated with colder temperatures was found between 8.3 °C and 10.3 °C. This increase occurred instantly and significantly 0–1 days after the event. The increase in hospitalizations for CVD has been shown to be correlated to high temperatures above 28.6 °C for lag day 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afforestation processes, natural and anthropogenic, involve the conversion of other land uses to forest, and they represent one of the most important land use transformations, influencing numerous ecosystem services. Although remotely sensed data are commonly used to monitor forest disturbance, only a few reported studies have used these data to monitor afforestation. The objectives of this study were two fold: (1) to develop and illustrate a method that exploits the 1985–2019 Landsat time series for predicting afforestation areas at 30 m resolution at the national scale, and (2) to estimate afforestation areas statistically rigorously within Italian administrative regions and land elevation classes. We used a Landsat best-available-pixel time series (1985–2019) to calculate a set of temporal predictors that, together with the random forests prediction technique, facilitated construction of a map of afforested areas in Italy. Then, the map was used to guide selection of an estimation sample dataset which, after a complex photointerpretation phase, was used to estimate afforestation areas and associated confidence intervals. The classification approach achieved an accuracy of 87%. At the national level, the afforestation area between 1985 and 2019 covered 2.8 ± 0.2 million ha, corresponding to a potential C-sequestration of 200 million t. The administrative region with the largest afforested area was Sardinia, with 260,670 ± 58,522 ha, while the smallest area of 28,644 ± 12,114 ha was in Valle d'Aosta. Considering elevation classes of 200 m, the greatest afforestation area was between 400 and 600 m above sea level, where it was 549,497 ± 84,979 ha. Our results help to understand the afforestation process in Italy between 1985 and 2019 in relation to geographical location and altitude, and they could be the basis of further studies on the species composition of afforestation areas and land management conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A personalized approach is strongly advocated for treatment selection in Multiple Sclerosis patients due to the high number of available drugs. Machine learning methods proved to be valuable tools in the context of precision medicine. In the present work, we applied machine learning methods to identify a combined clinical and genetic signature of response to fingolimod that could support the prediction of drug response. Two cohorts of fingolimod-treated patients from Italy and France were enrolled and divided into training, validation, and test set. Random forest training and robust feature selection were performed in the first two sets respectively, and the independent test set was used to evaluate model performance. A genetic-only model and a combined clinical–genetic model were obtained. Overall, 381 patients were classified according to the NEDA-3 criterion at 2 years; we identified a genetic model, including 123 SNPs, that was able to predict fingolimod response with an AUROC= 0.65 in the independent test set. When combining clinical data, the model accuracy increased to an AUROC= 0.71. Integrating clinical and genetic data by means of machine learning methods can help in the prediction of response to fingolimod, even though further studies are required to definitely extend this approach to clinical applications [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite being a natural ecological process, wildfires are dramatic events that, accelerated by global change, could negatively affect ecosystem services depending on their severity level. However, because of data processing constraints, fire severity has been mostly neglected in risk analysis (especially at regional levels). Indeed, previous studies addressing fire severity focused mainly on analyzing single fire events, preventing the projection of the results over large areas. Although, building and projecting robust models of fire severity to integrate into risk analysis is of main importance to best anticipate decisions. Here, taking advantage of free data-processing platforms, such as Google Earth Engine, we use more than 1000 fire records from Western Italy and Southern France in the years 2004–2017, to assess the performance of random forest models predicting the relativized delta normalized burn ratio (rdNBR) used as proxy of fire severity. Furthermore, we explore the explanatory capacity and meaning of several variables related to topography, vegetation, and burning conditions. To show the potentialities of this approach for operational purposes, we projected the model for one of the regions (Sardinia) within the study area. Results showed that machine learning algorithms explain up to 75% of the variability in rdNBR, with variables related to vegetation amount and topography being the most important. These results highlight the potential usefulness of these tools for mapping fire severity in risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise and accurate delineation of flooding areas with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multi-spectral (MS) data is challenging because flooded areas are inherently heterogeneous as emergent vegetation (EV) and turbid water (TW) are common. We addressed these challenges by developing and applying a new stepwise sequence of unsupervised and supervised classification methods using both SAR and MS data. The MS and SAR signatures of land and water targets in the study area were evaluated prior to the classification to identify the land and water classes that could be delineated. The delineation based on a simple thresholding method provided a satisfactory estimate of the total flooded area but did not perform well on heterogeneous surface water. To deal with the heterogeneity and fragmentation of water patches, a new unsupervised classification approach based on a combination of thresholding and segmentation (CThS) was developed. Since sandy areas and emergent vegetation could not be classified by the SAR-based unsupervised methods, supervised random forest (RF) classification was applied to a time series of SAR and co-event MS data, both combined and separated. The new stepwise approach was tested for determining the flood extent of two events in Italy. The results showed that all the classification methods applied to MS data outperformed the ones applied to SAR data. Although the supervised RF classification may lead to better accuracies, the CThS (unsupervised) method achieved precision and accuracy comparable to the RF, making it more appropriate for rapid flood mapping due to its ease of implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Miscanthus holds a great potential in the frame of the bioeconomy, and yield prediction can help improve Miscanthus' logistic supply chain. Breeding programs in several countries are attempting to produce high-yielding Miscanthus hybrids better adapted to different climates and end-uses. Multispectral images acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Italy and in the UK in 2021 and 2022 were used to investigate the feasibility of high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of novel Miscanthus hybrids for yield prediction and crop traits estimation. An intercalibration procedure was performed using simulated data from the PROSAIL model to link vegetation indices (VIs) derived from two different multispectral sensors. The random forest algorithm estimated with good accuracy yield traits (light interception, plant height, green leaf biomass, and standing biomass) using 15 VIs time series, and predicted yield using peak descriptors derived from these VIs time series with root mean square error of 2.3 Mg DM ha−1. The study demonstrates the potential of UAVs' multispectral images in HTP applications and in yield prediction, providing important information needed to increase sustainable biomass production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern farming causes a decline in the recycling of the soil's inorganic matter due to losses by leaching, runoff, or infiltration into the groundwater. The Soil System Budget approach was applied to evaluate the net N budget at the catchment and sub-catchment levels of the Tiber River (central Italy) in order to establish the causes for different N budgets among the sub-catchments. Statistical Entropy Analysis (SEA) was used to evaluate the N efficiency of the Tiber River and its sub-catchments, providing information on the dispersion of different N forms in the environment. The total N inputs exceeded the total outputs, showing a low N retention (15.8%) at the catchment level, although some sub-catchments showed higher N retention values. The Utilized Agricultural Area was important in the determination of the N balance, as it was linked to zoo- and agricultural activities, although the Random Forest analysis showed that the importance ranking changed with the land use. The low N retention of the Tiber catchment was due to the soil characteristics (Cambisols and Leptosols), loads from atmospheric deposition, biological fixation, and the livestock industry. The SEA simulations showed a reduction of the N released into the atmosphere and groundwater compartments from 34% to 6% through a reduction of the N loads by 50%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]