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The pulp and paper industry is the most energy intensive industry in Sweden. Most of the energy usedaims to supply the large amount of heat to the production processes that is required to produce pulp andpaper . By increasing the energy efficiency of paper mills, there is great potential to reduce productioncosts and reduce its environmental impact. This project involves mapping, analyzing and investigation ofmeasures that can contribute to increased thermal efficiency of an internal heating network at Holmen’spaper mill, Braviken. The heating network, called VVG, utilises excess heat from the pulp and paperproduction and supplies heat to production processes and premises at the factory. When the heat demandof the VVG-system exceeds the available recovered heat, heat from live steam is transferred. This projectaim at identifying measures with potential to reduce demand of live steam supply. The project started bymapping the entire VVG-system to identify which consumers are included and how it is connected. Thenthe consumers were studied and data was collected to determine their power and energy demands. Basedon the mapping and collected data, proposals for measures that have the potential to increase thermalenergy efficiency were noted which in turn can reduce the need for live steam supply. The measures havebeen focused on reducing the return temperature of the VVG-system and reducing the heat demand of thesystem. Reduced return temperatures are achieved by more efficient use of the existing heat flow. Thisleads to increased heat recovery potential which means that more excess heat can be utilised.The proposed measures that were identified as having potential to contribute to reduction of the returntemperatures of the VVG-system are as follow: • Utilising return flows with high flow rates and high temperatures to provide other consumers inVVG with heat. This allows the hot flow to be used instead of going directly into the return line. • Eliminate short circuits in

Energisektorn står idag för en tredjedel av de globala växthusgasutsläppen och på senare tid har tillgången på energi blivit en alltmer kritisk fråga då energisystemets utveckling har en avgörande roll för att nå nationella och internationella klimatmål. Energipolitiska styrmedel reglerar bland annat att företag och energisystemets utveckling går i rätt riktning och på grund av att många faktorer behöver inkluderas är energipolitiken ett komplext arbete. Tidigare studier visar att flertalet energipolitiska styrmedel har varit effektiva i syfte att minska klimatpåverkan från industriella verksamheter. Att som företag vara uppdaterad på förändringar inom energimarknaden och utvecklingen av energipolitiska styrmedel har kommit att bli viktigt då de påverkar verksamhetens energianvändning. Den svenska industrisektorn är en central användare av energi, där massa- och pappersindustrin står för omkring hälften av den totala energianvändningen inom Sveriges industrisektor. Energi är en integrerad fråga i massa- och pappersindustrin med utmaningar gällande miljöpåverkan, resursutnyttjande och hantering av förändrade energipriser. Ökad energieffektivitet för energiintensiva industrier är dessutom en viktig del i den globala klimatomställningen. Att integrera energimanagement i verksamheten är ett verktyg för att genomföra energieffektiviseringsåtgärder. Tidigare forskning och modeller för implementering av energimanagement i industriella verksamheter inkluderar däremot inte energirelaterad omvärldsbevakning, vilket skapar utrymme för vidare forskning. Denna studie syftar till att genom en omvärldsbevakning identifiera hur nuvarande och framtida energipolitiska styrmedel påverkar kemiska massa- och pappersbruk, med avseende på el som energibärare. Vidare undersöks hur förändringar på elmarknaden kan komma att påverka den kemiska massa- och pappersindustrin. Resultatet analyseras med utgångspunkt från ett befintligt ramverk för strategiskt arbete med energimanagement. Avslutnin, Today, the energy sector accounts for a third of the global greenhouse gas emissions. The supply of energy has recently become an increasingly critical issue as the development of the energy system plays a crucial role to achieve national and international climate goals. Energy policy instruments regulate the development of companies' energy use and the energy system, but since several factors need to be included the field of energy policies is complex. Previous research shows that energy policy instruments have been effective to reduce the climate impact of industrial activities. Due to the constant development of the energy market and modifications of energy policy instruments, enterprises need to stay updated on these changes as they affect the business's energy use. The Swedish industrial sector is a central user of energy, where the pulp and paper industry accounts for about half of the total use of Sweden's industrial sector. Therefore, energy is an integrated issue in the pulp and paper industry with current challenges in terms of environmental impact, resource utilization, and changing energy prices. Increased energy efficiency in energy-intensive industries is important for confronting climate changes and energy management is a tool for implementing energy efficiency measures. However, current energy management literature and models for implementation in industrial firms do not include energy-related external environmental monitoring, which enables further research. The aim of this study is by conducting an external environmental analysis, identify how current and future energy policies affect the chemical pulp and paper industry, concerning electricity as an energy carrier. Furthermore, the study also seeks to investigate how changes within the electricity market affect the chemical pulp and paper industry. The results are analyzed based on an existing conceptual framework of energy management. Finally, an organizational perspective is applied to a company

Electric drones as an autonomous mode of transport are scaling up to transform last-mile goods delivery, raising an urgent need for assessing impacts of drone transport from a systems perspective. In this paper, we conduct systems analyses to assess the environmental, economic, and delivery time impact of large drones for delivery scenarios to pick-up centers between mid-size cities predominantly in rural areas, and deliveries within city limits compared with electric and diesel trucks. Results show that large drones have lower emissions than diesel trucks for deliveries in rural areas and that drones dont compete with electric trucks, mainly due to the high energy demand required for take-off and landing for each delivery. Furthermore, we show that electric drones are an economically more cost-effective option than road-bound transport modes such as diesel and electric trucks due to the high degree of automation, and also provide the fastest delivery times. Our analysis provides unique insights that drones can address rapid electrification and emergency applications due to low costs, high flexibility, and fast operations. However, for regulators and practitioners to realize it as an emission-friendly option it is necessary to determine the optimal size of drones, particularly for use cases in urban areas, avoid very low landings for deliveries, and have home deliveries instead of pick-up points., Funding Agencies|We sincerely thank the drone manufacturers, logistics companies, and County Insurance in Sweden for their inputs on quantitative values assumed in this paper.

In man-made energy systems like the electricity system, new concepts have the potential to influence and shape the development of the system. Sometimes the influence leads to a positive development and in other cases the new concept may lead into disadvantageous pathways. In this paper we argue that when a new concept is introduced, it may give rise to an unhinged paradox. An unhinged paradox implies that introducing a new concept, such as a new governance or management model, might lead to unintended consequences where some parts or the whole system become more unstable, or less resilient or unhinged . The transition of energy systems includes many "wicked " problems, i.e., aspects that are difficult to foresee the outcome of. The need for a rapid transition with an urgent need to implement new concepts together with a lack of or delayed feedback loops may give rise to wicked problems and unhinged systems. This unhinged paradox is likely to be found even beyond the scope of energy systems and will be further discussed in this paper in relation to the deregulation of the energy market, improved energy efficiency and energy flexibility.

Recent studies claim that national policies fall short of the ambitious goal to limit global temperature increase to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, revealing an ambition gap between current commitments and those needed to reach climate neutrality. To bridge this gap, commitments must increase more than fivefold to achieve the necessary reduction in GHG emissions. Voluntary initiatives (VIs), gaining interest as an approach to support the Paris Agreement's ambition, have the potential to bridge the commitment gap and limit the expected temperature increase to 2°C if all their voluntary commitments to climate neutrality are fulfilled. While decarbonizing the manufacturing sector is crucial for climate targets, no prior study has explored the theoretical potential of industry-related VIs to bridge the gap for industrial decarbonization. This paper addresses this gap by examining the potential contribution of these VIs, analyzing criteria related to arena and agenda creation, operationalization, and accountability. By applying the transition management framework innovatively, the study investigates eighty-three industry-related VIs led by both state and non-state actors. The research process, involving the development of an analytical framework, VIs selection, data collection and validation, categorization, and analysis, provides insights into how the design affects VIs' potential for industrial decarbonization. The main findings highlight, firstly, the need for clearly defined and measurable targets, enhanced commitments, and robust accountability mechanisms, especially for non-state actor-led initiatives. Secondly, increased participation from energy-intensive sector companies due to their pivotal role for GHG emission reduction. Lastly, collaboration between state and non-state actors is critical for bridging the decarbonization gap in manufacturing industries. Additionally, the similarity between VIs and voluntary agreement programs (VAPs) is highlighted, with VA, Towards a theory of energy management through contrasting case studies from the shipping and the manufacturing sectors

Energy efficiency (EE) is our "first fuel" and an essential resource in reaching climate goals, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, increasing security of supply, and many other "Multiple Benefits." However, by their nature, savings are intangible. Demand-side EE measures are typically decentralized, heterogeneous, and small-scale opportunities. The difficulties in measurement and verification (M&V) of "Negawatts" are an important and often overlooked barrier to their greater application.M&V is a prerequisite to assess the performance of any energy, water, or CO2-saving measure, and to quantify the savings into physical and monetary units for reporting, re-financing, GHG accounting, or other purposes. However, in practice, M&V is often perceived (particularly by clients) as cumbersome, incomprehensible, and costly.In the broader context, energy cost savings alone are often not a sufficiently strong project driver because they lack strategic relevance for decision makers. As "Multiple Benefits" of EE become better understood, the value of quantifying savings to a high degree of accuracy may be declining, creating opportunities for more flexible M&V standards.As a new methodology, this conceptual paper proposes to combine simplified M&V (sM&V) for individual EE measures with quality assurance instruments (QAIs) to verify functionality. This "sM&V + QAI" approach is less cumbersome, less costly, and easier to comprehend than standard M&V approaches, particularly by clients, financiers, and other non-M&V experts. It has been reviewed by international experts and successfully tested and evaluated in the field. Multiple case studies are reported to verify its practical feasibility., Funding Agencies|Linkoping University

Sweden aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. The need to immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to achieve climate targets affects industry directly. The pulp and paper sector is responsible for more than 50% of industrial energy use in Sweden. Increased energy efficiency is expected to contribute significantly to the reduction of primary energy use. The recovery and utilisation of industrial excess heat (IEH) has been identified as an important potential contribution to energy efficiency in industry. Previous research based on top-down studies has estimated the availability of IEH for entire sectors, and bottom-up results for many case studies are available. While top-down studies lack detailed information on the profile of the excess heat available, bottom-up studies have limited coverage. Detailed information about excess heat amounts and temperature levels is required for the assessment of the potential of the various heat recovery technologies that are available. The aim of this thesis is to present, in a series of steps, methods to systematically analyse an industrial process to obtain a detailed profile of the excess heat available under various process conditions, to aggregate results that can be generalised to whole industrial sectors, and to obtain IEH recovery potentials using different technologies. The assessment of the utilisation options for IEH recovery is complemented with an analysis of system aspects that could affect profitability and global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An energy-targeting procedure combined with optimisation has been applied to six case studies of kraft pulp and paper mills in Sweden. This method obtained IEH profiles that were used in a regression analysis to estimate the IEH availability and electricity generation potentials from low and medium temperature IEH using organic Rankine cycles (ORC). A comparison of profitability and global GHG emissions between ORC electricity generation using IEH and small, Sverige siktar på att uppnå klimatneutralitet till 2045. Behovet av att omedelbart minska utsläppen av växthusgaser för att nå klimatmålen påverkar industrin direkt. Massa- och papperssektorn står för mer än 50% av den industriella energianvändningen i Sverige. Ökad energieffektivitet förväntas i hög grad bidra till att minska primärenergianvändningen. Återvinning och utnyttjande av industriell överskottsvärme (IÖV) har identifierats som ett betydande potentiellt bidrag till energieffektivitet i industrin. Tidigare forskning baserad på top-down studier har uppskattat tillgängligheten av IÖV för hela sektorer eller regioner, och bottom-up resultat för många fallstudier finns tillgängliga. Medan top-down studier saknar detaljerad information om profilen för tillgänglig överskottsvärme, har bottom-up studier begränsad täckning och precision. Detaljerad information om överskottsvärmemängder och temperaturnivåer krävs för att bedöma potentialen hos flera värmeåtervinningstekniker. Denna avhandling syftar till att i en serie steg presentera metoder för att systematiskt analysera en industriell process för att erhålla en detaljerad profil av tillgänglig överskottsvärme under olika processförhållanden, för att aggregera resultat som kan generaliseras för hela industrisektorer, och att erhålla återvinningspotentialer för industriell överskottsvärme med hjälp av olika teknologier. Bedömningen av olika möjligheter att använda industriell överskottsvärme kompletteras med en analys av systemaspekter som kan påverka lönsamhet och globala växthusgasutsläpp. Ett energimålsförfarande kombinerat med optimering har tillämpats på sex fallstudier av massa- och pappersbruk i Sverige, med produktion baserat på sulfatmassa. Med denna metod erhålls IÖV-profiler som används i en regressionsanalys för att uppskatta tillgängligheten av IÖV och potentialen för elproduktion från låg- och medeltempererad IÖV med organiska Rankine-cykler (ORC). En jämförelse av lönsamhet och globala växthusgasutsl

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather system, they can be used to propagate this uncertainty through to subsequent wind power forecasting models. However, as weather ensemble systems are known to be biassed and underdispersed, meteorologists post-process the ensembles. This post-processing can successfully correct the biasses in the weather variables but has not been evaluated thoroughly in the context of subsequent forecasts, such as wind power generation forecasts. The present paper evaluates multiple strategies for applying ensemble post-processing to probabilistic wind power forecasts. We use Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) as the post-processing method and evaluate four possible strategies: only using the raw ensembles without post-processing, a one-step strategy where only the weather ensembles are post-processed, a one-step strategy where we only post-process the power ensembles and a two-step strategy where we post-process both the weather and power ensembles. Results show that post-processing the final wind power ensemble improves forecast performance regarding both calibration and sharpness whilst only post-processing the weather ensembles does not necessarily lead to increased forecast performance., Funding Agencies|Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [EXC 2064/1, RTG 2153, SFB/TRR 165]; Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft

This paper focuses on multi-family buildings in a Swedish city district, erected between 1965 and 1973, which are now in need of renovation. For the two types of multi-family buildings in the district, tower buildings and low-rise buildings, dynamic energy use is predicted by using an energy signature method. The energy signature is then used to calculate the primary energy use number of the building stock, according to calculations methods dictated by Swedish building regulations. These regulations are also used to assess which multi-family buildings are in need of renovation, based on the buildings primary energy use. For buildings that need energy renovations, it is simulated so that the energy use of each multi-family building complies with these same building regulations. The proposed methodology for simulating energy renovation also determines new energy signature parameters, related to building heat loss coefficient, balance temperature and domestic hot water usage. The effects of simulated renovation are displayed in a duration diagram, revealing how a large-scale renovation affects the districts heat load in different annual periods, which affects the local district heating system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed before and after simulated energy renovation.

Being an environmentally friendly fuel obtained from rapeseed oil, biodiesel is used extensively in Europe. However, the dependence structure between global crude oil prices and the European prices of biodiesel and rapeseed oil is understudied and unclear. In this paper, we address this gap by utilizing asymmetric copulas and cross-quantilogram approaches on daily data. The results of the DCC-Student-t copula indicate that during bearish periods the conditional connectedness between crude oil prices and biodiesel (rapeseed oil) prices are stronger than during bullish periods, indicating increased co-movement with a decline in crude oil prices. The application of cross-quantilogram indicates that an increase in crude oil price positively influences biodiesel prices reflecting an asymmetric dependence structure among the assets. There is evidence of shifts in the dynamics of quantile dependency during periods of financial and economic turmoil. Overall, the results show a significant dependence between the global crude oil market and the European markets of biodiesel and rapeseed oil in specific periods and under specific market conditions, which have important implications for policymakers and investors.

According to the European Commission’s 2050 Climate Strategy, renewable electricity is the most important driver for decarbonising the energy system. The intermittent nature of wind and solar creates a demand for dispatchable electricity production that can contribute to a stable and steady supply all year. This supply can be provided, for example, by biomass boilers with combined heat and power production. This paper analyses the potential for small-scale electricity production in Organic Rankine Cycle systems (ORC) in different geographical contexts. The focus is on installing ORC systems with existing biomass-fired boilers in district heating (DH) systems or industry, and with industrial excess heat streams. Economic and climate effects are studied in three countries with different climates and energy-market conditions, namely Sweden, the United Kingdom and Brazil. The results show that there is the potential to install ORC systems around the world that are both economically viable and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Equipment size has a large effect on the profitability of the investments. Moreover, the benefits of tax exemptions and certificates for renewable electricity production significantly impact profitability, particularly for smaller equipment sizes., Funding: Swedish Energy Agency [44911-1]

A sustainable building sector with a more energy-efficient and decarbonized building stock is important for mitigating climate change. This paper contributes to knowledge on how to increase energy efficiency investments by presenting a nationwide survey on the perception of barriers and drivers for energy efficiency among 216 professionals in the Swedish building sector. This study explores economic, behavioral, and organizational conditions and analyzes the conventional dependencies on (1) type of ownership and (2) size of the organization, but also adds analysis on (3) degree of urbanization, (4) climate zones and (5) profession. Together these dependencies enhance a custom design of policies and measures. The findings show that hidden costs and bounded rationality were prominent barriers due to problems to acquire and analyze information, which needs to be addressed. In addition to the economic driver to reduce cost, several behavioral and organizational drivers were emphasized. There were distinct economic differences depending on the type of ownership and size of the organizations. Well-developed organizational structures were important factors for energy efficiency, which policies and measures should address. Differences were seen between organizations operating in rural areas and more densely populated areas. An improved indoor climate was important in northern climate zones., Funding: Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth through the European Regional Development Fund

Making buildings more energy efficient is an important part of achieving the European Union's energy and climate goals, which several directives, policies, and measures has addressed over the years. This paper aims to study changes over a 10-year period in perception on barriers to and drivers for energy efficiency in the Swedish building sector and identifying success factors. The data collection consists of surveys conducted in 2010 and 2020 among organizations that mainly build, own, and manage multi-dwelling buildings. Besides the overall result, special focus is given to changes depending on type of ownership, size of organization, and organizational hierarchy. Lack of time or other priorities and slim organizations remain the most important barriers, which is most evident among small organizations. Reducing cost remains the major driver. The uncertainty surrounding a rising energy price has diminished and cost-effective solutions are more adaptable. More capital for energy efficiency is available, particularly in the private sector. Furthermore, the result acknowledges the impact of regulatory measures. The study recognizes a connection between organizational development and the integration of energy efficiency in an organizations’ agenda. Future challenges are related to hidden costs and knowledge acquisition., Funding: FORMAS a Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development [2022-01941]; Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth; European Regional Development Fund

Information Communication Technology (ICT) centers play a vital role as essential facilities within our digitalized society. Energy efficiency holds great significance in the ICT sector, driven by the rising energy costs and to reduce the environmental impact. Simultaneously, it is essential to ensure a sufficient cooling supply for servers. Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used to analyze patterns in large datasets, facilitating valuable insights that are difficult for humans to analyze alone because of the complexity and size of the datasets. The aim of this research is to characterize cooling patterns and explore how AI-driven clustering algorithms can be used to identify cooling operational statuses. The research object is an ICT room situated in Linköping, Sweden, and operated by the global telecommunications company Ericsson AB. The ICT room has Liquid Cooling Packages (LCPs) for water-based cooling.The results show that the average cooling power density in the ICT room is 6.98 kW/m2, and the interquartile range is 8.26 kW/m2. The results also demonstrate the potentialities in using AI-based clustering algorithms, K-means in the presented research, to uncover insights related to cooling operational statuses. Furthermore, the results show that it is suitable to divide the data points into four clusters, providing a detailed description of the characteristics of the dataset. The identified clusters differ with regards to variables, among other, such as LCP return air temperature and temperature difference between chilled water supply and return. This is beneficial in identifying undesired operational statuses of LCPs, e.g., low temperature difference between chilled water supply and return, which is an indicator of a poor cooling performance.

The European Commission has been recognized DH technology of essential importance to reach the sustainability. A flexibility in the fuel mix, and possibilities of industrial waste heat utilization, combined heat and power (CHP) production and energy recovery through waste incineration, are only some of the benefits which characterize DH technology. The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the possible business strategies which would enable for DH to have an important role towards future sustainable energy systems. The study includes a system approach where DH is seen as a part of an integrated system which consists of transport‑, industrial-, and electricity sectors as well. Converting energy for running the industrial processes from fossil fuels and electricity to DH and delivering excess heat from industrial processes, would make the industry less dependent on fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based electricity, as well as increase energy efficiency and reduce production costs. Reducing the electricity use in the industry sector while at the same time increasing the CHP production in the local DH systems would (1) replace fossil-based electricity production with electricity in biomass- or waste-fueled CHP plants, and reduce the capacity requirements from the national electricity grid (i.e. it would reduce the pressure on the bottle necks in the grid). Furthermore, by operating their central controlled heat pumps and CHP plants depending on the intermittent electricity production variation the DH companies may enable an increased share of intermittent electricity production in the national electricity grid.