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What role has labor-saving technological change played in the recent past in charting out the trajectory of employment? Have we already transitioned into a new technological regime where production technologies are more invasive upon labor's terrain? In this study, I provide empirical evidence to answer these questions. Using industry-level data from 12 advanced economies for 1970–2007, I show that capital goods did not become more effective in labor-saving after 1980 or 1990. Similarly, the strength of the relationship between employment and output did not decline after 1980 or 1990. While many recent econometric studies have estimated the number of workers displaced due to industrial robots with which the media and public are highly preoccupied, there is nothing new in the fact that production technologies are labor-saving and displace workers. The importance of demand side factors and structural change (mainly deindustrialization) in determining employment patterns is often neglected, leading to a misleading assessment of the impact of labor-saving technologies on employment. • It is not new that automation is labor-saving or displaces labor. • Deindustrialization is a secular dynamic that depresses manufacturing employment. • No acceleration in within-labor-saving effect of capital goods since around 1980 or 1990. • No weakening in the strength of the relationship between employment and output since around 1980 or 1990. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The article proposes an empirical analysis of Brazilian deindustrialization from a Marxian perspective. • Inter-regional input-output analysis is the quantitative instrument used to measure deindustrialization indicators. • Two critical situations indicating structural change are proposed. • The results indicate a process of deindustrialization in Brazil between 1995 and 2010. • The results show that the primary sector is gaining ground in the dynamization of Brazilian capitalism. The article brings new indicators that reinforce the thesis that the Brazilian economy went through a process of deindustrialization. Based on the guiding principle of Marx's reproduction schemes, the instrument of inter-regional input-output analysis was used as empirical method. The output multipliers obtained from the Leontief and Ghosh models were used as indicators for measuring structural changes. Critical situations that can show whether there were structural changes in the sectors of the economy, considering both the local economic activity and its relationship with the world economy, are presented. The main results confirm the existence of a deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy. However, it was found that, in absolute and relative terms, the reduction in the capacity of the Brazilian manufacturing to drive the economy oscillated between moments of greater and lesser intensity. Furthermore, strong indications that the Brazilian primary sector is becoming an enclave were found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Manufacturing share in India's GDP has increased by about 16 percentage points between 2003 and 2018. • Dominant contribution to increased manufacturing GDP share is made by petroleum refining. • There has been a tremendous increase in the real value-added share of ICT equipment industry. • For assessing properly the performance of manufacturing, double-deflation of GDP is essential. Contrary to a widely held impression that the share of manufacturing in India's GDP has long stagnated, the paper claims that it has increased significantly. Measured at the prices of different goods and services prevailing in 2004-05, and deflation applied separately with input prices as well as output prices to account for differential input price trends, the GDP share of manufacturing has increased during the post-reform period from about 17 per cent in 1993-94 to about 32 per cent in 2018-19. The paper notes that the concept of real share in GDP relates to the volume effect and represents the change in the share of the volume of manufacturing activity out of the volume of all economic activities in the Indian economy. Some explanation is provided for the apparent stagnancy of the share of manufacturing in India's GDP at current prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Examine industrial trends in six Central American economies, and find that the industrial employment share has declined by an average of 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades. • Decline not due to a trade-driven deindustrialization but rather due to an increase in barriers that restrict the efficient flow of labor across sectors. • Policy interventions targeting these barriers could potentially lead to significant industrial expansion, but the economic impact may be marginal, with aggregate output projected to increase by 3.2 percent or less. • Boosting productivity could be a more prudent growth strategy. This paper analyses industrial trends in six Central American economies by assembling and harmonizing sectoral data from multiple sources. Industrial employment share has declined by an average of 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades. Contrary to a trade-driven deindustrialization hypothesis, which suggests that cheaper imports have replaced domestic production of industrial goods, the findings indicate that this decline is primarily driven by an increase in barriers that restrict the efficient flow of labor across sectors. The paper argues that policy interventions that target these barriers could potentially lead to significant industrial expansion. However, the economic impact of such policies may be marginal, with aggregate output projected to increase by 3.2 percent or less upon eliminating these barriers. Moreover, this approach also carries risks, as it may introduce new distortions that could further hinder economic efficiency. Perhaps a more prudent growth strategy will be to concentrate on boosting productivity, which though challenging, directly affects the output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Exports of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) depend on industrialization. • Premature deindustrialization harms capacity building at KIBS. • A KIBS export-led development strategy is not an alternative to industrialization. • Productive specialization in the service economy is path-dependent. • National Innovation Systems (NIS) need to be shaped by industrialization to foster KIBS. The transformation of the services sector and the deindustrialization of most economies have increased support for a KIBS export-led growth strategy for premature countries. However, the literature on deindustrialization argues that premature countries develop non-dynamic services mostly, which casts doubt on the viability of that strategy. This article theoretically and empirically analyzes this hypothesis. Using evolutionary and neo-Schumpeterian arguments, we point out the relevance of the path dependency of the productive structure throughout the complex transition from an industrial economy to a service economy. The empirical section analyzes the importance of the previous industrialization of a country to be a successful KIBS exporter. It finds that countries that achieved a high level of industrialization before deindustrializing are more likely to export KIBS than those countries that did not achieve advanced industrialization. Science-based and specialized suppliers manufacturing are of key importance for the development of KIBS capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Deindustrialization may emerge in both developed and developing countries. One dimension of the industrialization trend is regional deindustrialization in a country. • Analyzes inter-state deindustrialization trends in the U.S. by dividing states into three income level groups (high, middle, and low). • Determines the turning points of inter-state deindustrialization in the U.S. and the difference in the rate of deindustrialization. • Conducts both time-series and panel data methodology. • Results show that the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization, which is historically observed in developing countries at a very lower GDP per capita income levels than developed countries, might exist at the regional level even in a developed country. The phenomenon of deindustrialization may emerge in both developed and developing countries. Besides deindustrialization is observable in different regions of a country. This study analyzes inter-state deindustrialization trends in the United States (the U.S.) from 1977 to 2017 by dividing states into three income level groups (high, middle, and low). Instead of specifying the factors, we determine the turning points of inter-state deindustrialization and the difference in the rate of deindustrialization by applying both time-series and panel data methodology. The results suggest that the deindustrialization hypothesis is valid in 38 out of 50 states, DC, and the U.S. at the country level. Furthermore, our results show that deindustrialization curves in lower-income states reach a turning point at lower per capita income levels and at an earlier time-span compared to higher-income state groups. Our findings indicate that premature/early deindustrialization, which is commonly stated for developing countries in the literature is also valid for different regions in a developed country, the U.S. in our case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The pandemic-crisis effects on Brazilian manufacturing industries are investigated. • An input-output model is employed to address its sectorial composition and linkages. • The pandemic-crisis has further harmful effects on knowledge-intensive industries. • EIHC promotes high-tech industries, while it showed higher degree of import dependence. • COVID-19 may be crucial to rethink industrial policy space within societal purposes. The COVID-19 crisis represents a turning point to rethink industrial policy spaces and countries' productive autonomy, especially for developing economies, such as Brazil, that call for new ways of thinking about manufacturing within societal purposes. Using an input-output model, the paper explores the pandemic-crisis-effects in the case of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. We find that the pandemic-crisis has harmful effects on the Brazilian productive structure, revealing the dependence on imports of the Brazilian Health System. Reductions in manufacturing gross output and value-added are mainly seen in knowledge-intensive subsectors, followed by job losses and tax revenue reduction. We suggest that the pandemic points to some roads to reindustrialization and resilience, given the reorganization of international production networks and the growing dependence on imports in key manufacturing sectors. Thus, the potential role of the manufacturing sector to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth reveals the importance of building productive capacity beyond the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four decades on from the onset of deindustrialisation in the UK and other late-capitalist societies, industrial places are again emerging as key objects of policy discourse. Under the dual pressures of decarbonisation, and the recognition of 'left behind' regions as potential hotspots for feelings of political marginalisation, new strategies for clean growth are emerging, aiming to boost local economic and environmental performance. Presenting data produced via biographical interviews and deliberative workshops in Port Talbot, South Wales, we explore how experiences of life in one of the UK's most significant manufacturing towns has shaped local feelings towards four place-based scenarios for industrial and energy systems decarbonisation. Drawing on the rich literatures detailing the cultural and emotional impacts of deindustrialisation, we illustrate how situated experiences of industrial dependence and decline shaped how Port Talbot residents made sense of visions for the town's future. In so doing we show how, in the face of industrial decline, alternative aspects of place emerged as locus points of emotional and cultural identification, 'public things' (Honig, 2017) in which alternative hopes for the future are invested. As emergent policies for clean growth become enacted in concrete projects, we argue for a clearer focus on experiences of and relationships embedded in industrial places, to ensure such strategies meet the desires of local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the scale, causes and timing of significant episodes of industrialization and deindustrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa. Recent studies have argued that the turning point of manufacturing output and employment shares tends to occur "prematurely" in this region (Rodrik, 2016). We perform our analysis using panel data methods for fractional responses and data from a variety of sources for a panel of 45 African countries. Our results overwhelmingly do not support the common finding that Sub-Saharan Africa countries have begun to deindustrialize prematurely. Moreover, we document meaningful heterogeneity across subregions of Sub-Saharan Africa with the Southern region being the only subregion that witnessed limited deindustrialization. However, this deindustrialization of the southern subregion does not appear to be occurring prematurely. The study also explores the potential role of Dutch disease and resource-curse hypotheses in understanding Sub-Saharan Africa's manufacturing experience in resource rich countries. We conclude that manufacturing remains a viable and reliable path towards structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa. • The scale, causes and timing of industrialization and deindustrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa are investigated with a panel of 45 countries. • The share of manufacturing in economy-wide employment is rising, while the manufacturing value added share seems to be more or less stagnating. • Using manufacturing value added share as a measure of industrialization, we find no evidence of deindustrialization in sub-Saharan Africa. • Industrialization through manufacturing remains a leading and reliable path towards structural transformation in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In Von Thünen (1826) , manufacturing decentralization is refining raw products into final products. • In List (1841) , decentralization can only happen if: savings in transport cost covers the increase in fixed of a second plant. • We update this approach to recent trends of manufacture relocation, labeled as "deindustrialization". In the model of agricultural land use and rent of Von Thunen (1826), manufacturing decentralization is viewed as the refining (or "distilling") of an agricultural commodity near the cultivation site, which substitutes for its transport to an industrial mill located in the Town. As Friedrich List (1841) added, this substitution is economically feasible only if the savings in transport cost following from in site refining cover the increase in fixed costs associated with a second industrial plant. We update this approach aiming to rationalize some stylized trends of manufacture relocation nowadays, which are jointly labeled as "deindustrialization". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper examines the dynamics of deindustrialization in developed countries during the 1970–2015 period, investigating the patterns and factors underlying manufacturing employment growth in 12 developed economies. • The paper shows that deindustrialization is a persistent pattern that experienced a significant structural change in the post-1990 period, in which the acceleration of globalization with the rise of North-South trade appeared to have a significant effect. • Industries with higher relative labour productivity are significantly more resistant to deindustrialization, particularly in the post-1990 period, and this effect is stronger for low-tech industries. • Deindustrialization tends to be more severe in countries with larger populations and a deficit-prone trade balance, and these links have become more pronounced in the post-1990 period. This paper examines the dynamics of deindustrialization in developed countries during the 1970–2015 period, investigating the patterns and factors underlying manufacturing employment growth in 12 developed economies. The study discloses seven key findings with valuable policy insights. In particular, the paper shows that deindustrialization is a persistent pattern that experienced a significant structural change in the post-1990 period, in which the acceleration of globalization with the rise of North-South trade appeared to have a significant effect. Furthermore, industries with higher relative labour productivity are significantly more resistant to deindustrialization, particularly in the post-1990 period, and this effect is stronger for low-tech industries. In addition, deindustrialization tends to be more severe in countries with larger populations and a deficit-prone trade balance, and these links have become more pronounced in the post-1990 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The participation of manufacturing in the GVA of many advanced economies is continuously decreasing. The purpose of this work is to contribute to the dialogue around the drivers of such trend. In order to do so, we use input-output analysis for decomposing the variation in the manufacturing share as the sum of the effects of the variation of various possible drivers of deindustrialization: prices, domestic demand, technology and external trade; and we calculate these effects through a dynamic-hierarchical structural decomposition analysis. As a result of the analysis, we identify certain regularities: (a) variations in prices and domestic demand are the two most important factors explaining deindustrialization; (b) a process of substituting domestic production by imports also contributes to deindustrialization; (c) exports make a positive contribution to the participation of manufactures in the GVA but, after the 2008 crisis, this contribution does not offset the negative contribution of substitution by imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty has been an important impediment to development in developing countries, and its eradication is a common human mission. Although the literature has extensively analyzed the determinants of poverty in developing countries, little attention has been paid to the impact of deindustrialization. Based on this, this paper collects cross-country panel data for 44 developing countries from 1990 to 2018 and systematically examines the effects and mechanisms of deindustrialization on the incidence of poverty based on a fixed-effects model, and then identifies the hindering factors and causes of deindustrialization in the process of poverty reduction in developing countries. The empirical results show that deindustrialization increases poverty in developing countries, and a 1 % increase in the share of services relative to manufacturing in developing countries is associated with a 0.417 % increase in the incidence of poverty, all else being equal, and its effect is stable, even after accounting for endogeneity. Mechanistic analysis suggests that deindustrialization exacerbates poverty through three channels: depressed economic growth, lower quality of employment, and loss of traditional manufacturing jobs. Further research finds that the effect of deindustrialization on poverty is more pronounced in countries that are likely to have premature deindustrialization, and that lower agricultural productivity and labor migration across gradients are important causes of premature deindustrialization in developing countries. Therefore, low middle income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, need to focus on guarding against a possible increase in the proportion of the population living in poverty due to shrinking manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

5A scenic spots represent world-class tourist attractions, the highest level of officially certified scenic spots in China. This study uses the establishment of 5A scenic spots as a quasi-natural experiment to evaluate their impact on the local environment and economic growth using the difference-in-difference method. The results indicate that the establishment of 5A scenic spots is associated with an 11.2% drop in the local total volume of SO2 and a 10.5% drop in unit volume (total volume divided by area). This effect was larger in more economically developed cities. Emission reduction was achieved by the deindustrialization of industrial structures rather than the improvement of pollution control technology. It was mainly realized by a substantial drop in the number of newly added key polluting enterprises approved by local governments. Furthermore, deindustrialization associated with 5A spots benefited the tertiary industry, but hindered the secondary industry. The net effect of 5A spots on local GDP was positive on average. These findings indicate that the establishment of 5A scenic spots can reconcile the goals of environmental protection and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]