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Power pooling has emerged as a regional strategy for accelerating generation capacity expansion in West Africa with the aim of leveraging vast domestic energy resources and promoting investment in regional power infrastructure. As part of their climate action pledges, most West African countries have committed to increasing the shares of variable renewable energy (VRE), particularly solar photovoltaic and wind power, in their generation mix. It, however, appears that approaches to utility-scale capacity expansion planning tend to overlook the inherent temporal intermittency and spatial variability of VRE-based generation. Moreover, despite influencing the techno-economic rationale for grid expansion and off-grid electrification, as well as the trade-offs between high renewable supply areas and grid expansion, the spatial distribution of demand has been overlooked in planning approaches, leading to conservative and weak prospects for the contribution of utility-scale VRE. Such inconsistencies with the region-wide potentials and policy ambitions highlight that it is paramount for West Africa to design its power pooling such that spatial and temporal fluctuations of VRE supply are duly considered in capacity expansion planning while taking advantage of complementarities between VRE supply and national electricity demand profiles. To address this, the present paper applies a long-term generation capacity expansion model, OptGen, soft-linked to a least-cost operation module, the SDDP tool, which is enhanced by geospatial electrification analysis using the OpeN Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET), to a subset of four member countries of the West African Power Pool – Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Mali – for the 2023–2040 time horizon. The results highlight that current frameworks lead to missed opportunities for bridging the supply-demand gap in all countries, not only in terms of VRE generation capacity, but also of cross-border power trade. • Long-term capacity expansion planning and dispatch models are soft-linked. • The spatial and hourly distributions of demand and renewables supply are considered. • The 10% limit on renewables share used in the regional master plan is not optimal. • The current system operation is not conducive to optimal cross-border trade. • The relaxed transmission scenario yields higher dispatch factors for renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cocoa production is a leading driver of deforestation in the humid-tropics of West Africa. Reconciling climate change mitigation with livelihoods of farmers requires identification of production strategies to concurrently improve yield and profit while curtailing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Using a 2021 plot-survey conducted in Ghana's Eastern region, we evaluated yields, GHG emissions, and value of production (VOP) (a profit indicator) across a typology representing the diversity of systems at plot-level. The typology was constructed by first stratifying plots according to shade levels and variety (hybrid vs. Amazonia) which resulted in three systems: Hybrid sun , hybrid variety under full-sun (little to no shade); Hybrid shade , hybrid and moderate shade (13–25 shade trees ha−1); and Amazonia, Amazonia under predominantly moderate shade. Next, factor analysis and clustering were used to group plots within each system according to cocoa yield, vegetation, management, and (local) climate conditions. Cluster analysis showed that fertiliser, weeding, pruning, hand pollination, cocoa tree density, and shade tree densities of differing heights were most influential for determination across systems. Hybrid shade had the highest net GHG removal rate at −6.8 ± 1.7 (± 95% CI) Mg CO 2 eq ha−1 yr−1: 48% and 127% higher (emissions more negative) respectively over Amazonia and Hybrid sun. Hybrid shade additionally had the highest average and least variable VOP among production systems at 669 ± 564 USD ha−1 yr−1, compared to Hybrid sun and Amazonia at 404 ± 442 and 213 ± 280 USD ha−1 yr−1 respectively. These results point to hybrid cocoa grown under moderate shade of 13–25 shade trees ha−1 as optimal for reconciling climate change mitigation with development in West African cocoa. • Study concurrently evaluates financial profits and GHG balances (N 2 O & CH 4 emissions, CO 2 removals) in West African cocoa. • Plot-level indicators are evaluated across a typology obtained from sample-stratification and clustering. • Hybrid cocoa under moderate shade (13-25 shade trees ha-1) had GHG removal increment of 127% over same variety without shade. • This system too had higher mean profits, thus best reconciling GHG mitigation and economic development for the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science. • There are very different ideas of how to know and govern futures in the present. • Suggestions for actions in the present are quite technocratic and linear. • Anticipation largely relies on western funding, science and technologies. • International involvement is presented as technical assistance and apolitical. • Plural and critical anticipation is missing to open up and democratize futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]