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We show, for the first time over Italy and over part of the central Mediterranean Basin, the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on the strokes forecast for a long period. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at convection allowing horizontal resolution (3 km). We carried out a two-seasons experiment (summer 2020 and fall 2021) providing the forecast of lightning and precipitation for the next 6 h (nowcasting), considering two sub-periods (0-3 h and 3-6 h) for verification. The LDA is done through a nudging scheme that increases the water vapor mass in the mixed-phase region based on observed flash density rates and simulated graupel mixing ratio. No changes are made to the model run if spurious convection is predicted or no flashes are observed. LDA can trigger convection missed by the control forecast, without LDA, and/or can redistribute the strokes predicted to be more consistent with observations. LDA has a positive impact on strokes forecast, improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. This improvement is however confined to the first three-hours of forecast with negligible to negative impact for longer time ranges, in line with other studies. The improvement pattern is different in summer and fall, depending on the convection development. The analysis of the Fraction Skill Score shows the usefulness of the forecast for practical purposes, considering the current areas used by the Civil Protection Department to issue meteorological alerts for intense convective events over Italy. Finally, it is shown that the forecast at the short-range (0−3 h) using LDA can improve the strokes forecast issued on the previous day, not using LDA, and the methodology of this paper can be applied to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching. A brief examination of rainfall forecast shows positive impact of LDA at the short-range (0-3 h), with neutral impact for longer time ranges. The different impact of LDA on the strokes and precipitation forecasts is also highlighted. • Lightning data assimilation improves the lightning and precipitation forecast for the first three-hours in summer and fall. • The pattern of improvement is different in summer and fall. • The very short-term forecast refines the previous day forecast as the storm is approaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the first detailed analysis of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC) strokes characteristics from the Lightning Detection Network (LINET) over Italy and the Central Mediterranean area, a lightning active area in south Europe. We study the strokes over a 13-year period from 2010 to 2022, aiming to understand how it varies with different temporal scales (hourly, monthly, seasonally, and yearly), surface types (sea and land), and ground levels (0–100 m ; 100–200 m ; 200–400 m ; 400–800 m ; 800–1200 m ; 1200–2000 m and above 2000 m). We found that the stroke's maximum activity was observed in August; specifically, July has the maximum activity over the land with a maximum diurnal peak in the afternoon, while in September, the convection shifts over the sea with a secondary daily maximum in the morning. The largest current intensities are observed in January, over sea and during nighttime. Moreover we found that stroke current intensities, polarity and IC height emissions are influenced by ground altitude level. Our paper provides new insights into the spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of lightning over Italy and the Central Mediterranean area, which can be useful for improving weather forecasting, climate modeling, risk assessment, and damage mitigation strategies in this area. • Orography has strong impact on lightning density, polarity, intensity and discharge height. • Vigorous convection develops over the land in summer and over the sea in autumn. • Overall stroke density reaches its peak in August. • Atmospheric instability decreases the breakdown threshold increasing weaker strokes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]