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This article examines the political and performative function of the deforestation 'reference level' within Guyana's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) agreement with Norway. It argues that the establishment of, and continual negotiations around, the reference level rate illustrate how the Guyana-Norway REDD+ agreement was always more about ensuring the programme's 'success' than materially reducing deforestation in Guyana. By setting the 'reference level' at 0.275% per year in 2010, far above Guyana's historical rate of 0.02%, Guyana's successful performance in terms of 'avoiding deforestation' against this inflated level was all but guaranteed – even as 'business as usual' forest use continued on the ground. The fact that the reference level was high moreover allowed Norway to claim that it had 'contributed' (through its REDD+ payments) to higher 'avoided emissions', even though there was never a clear relationship between its payments and Guyana's deforestation rate throughout the programme. The 'performative' nature of the programme was meanwhile confirmed in 2019, when Norway disbursed the entire remaining balance from the US$250 million originally pledged to Guyana, despite the fact that Guyana had infringed the adjusted reference level 'floor' of 0.056% in several years of the programme. The article concludes that if meaningful solutions for 'avoiding deforestation' are to be developed, especially in the context of a new centrality for offsetting within the global 'net zero' agenda, 'success' must mean more than achieving results on paper and resources must be committed that are commensurate with the scale of the stated policy challenge. • Guyana's REDD+ programme with Norway is examined. • The REDD+ deforestation 'reference level' is central to ensuing programme 'success'. • The ultimately 'performative' nature of the programme is underlined. • 'Avoiding deforestation' must mean more than merely achieving results on paper. • Resources must be commensurate with the scale of the stated policy challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyse peer punishment patterns in a cross-country framed field experiment. • First-order cooperation is associated to prosocial punishment. • Excessive forest use (free riding) is associated to antisocial punishment. • Prosocial punishment reduces free riding; antisocial punishment increases it. • Indonesian participants punish twice as often as those from Brazil and Peru. The conservation of common-pool resources (CPRs), such as tropical forests, is a key challenge of development and environmental policies. Peer sanctioning of excessive resource use increases the cost of free riding and may be an effective way to ensure sustainable management of CPRs, but it entails individual costs to punishers. This paper examines peer punishment patterns and impacts in a cross-country framed field experiment (FFE) with homogeneous and heterogenous agents. The FFE is conducted with 720 forest users in Brazil, Indonesia, and Peru. We first examine the relationship between the appropriation of the common-pool resource (first order cooperation) and peer punishment choices (second order cooperation), distinguishing between prosocial and antisocial punishment. A small share (18.2%) of the participants behaves as self-interested payoff maximisers (homo economicus) , while the largest group (26.1%) cooperates in both the appropriation and punishment decisions (homo reciprocans). Across countries, receiving prosocial punishment, defined as punishment of free riders, increases cooperation, while receiving antisocial punishment reduces cooperation. There are, however, important inter-country variations. In Indonesia, the marginal costs of non-cooperation are higher than in the Brazilian and Peruvian sites, and agent heterogeneity significantly increases peer punishment frequency. We conjecture that the higher punishment frequency in Indonesia is linked to stronger equality norms and a willingness to enforce them. Although peer punishment boosts cooperation across all our study sites, the research highlights how peer punishment patterns and impacts are linked to the institutional and cultural contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental degradation and economic development are two of the most pressing issues facing the world today, and public policy that aims to address one of these may unintentionally affect the other. I study the effect of an increase in environmental law enforcement on local economic conditions in rural Brazil. In the first part of this paper, I use data on more targeted anti-deforestation law enforcement activities, guided by satellite alerts, and link that to local forest conversion. I then exploit the staggered introduction of a policy that increases monitoring and enforcement in municipalities with a history of high deforestation, and link this to a range of economic development outcomes. I find that more targeted law enforcement reduces conversion rates of forest to farm land. Furthermore, economic conditions in municipalities with stricter monitoring improve, indicating that environmental enforcement and economic development need not be at odds. • Targeted law enforcement in Amazon Biome of Brazil reduces deforestation. • Economic conditions in municipalities with stricter deforestation-monitoring improve. • GDP per capita is higher, and number of recipients of income support lower in targeted municipalities. • Environmental enforcement and economic development need not be at odds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Access to affordable mobile phones continues to be a policy focus, yet understanding of its impacts on the environment is limited. • We focus on rural households in Uganda (2009–2013) and find that mobile phone ownership is linked to increased deforestation. • A 1% increase in the share of households owning a mobile phone was associated with a 1.2% increase in deforestation within a 5-kilometer radius. • Households whose main source of income is not agricultural production may be driving the increased deforestation with more crop cultivation area (45%). • Our deforestation results are equivalent to 16,000 tons of lost carbon storage over two years, valued between $3 and $11 million. Increased access to information technology changes economic opportunities and may indirectly lead to changes in rural households' land use and the local natural environment. With the expansion of service coverage and decreasing cost of mobile phone service plans, particularly in Africa, it is critical to understand the implications of the rapid uptake of mobile phones on the environment. In this paper, we estimate the relationship between mobile phone adoption and deforestation in rural areas of Uganda over the 2009 to 2013 period. We exploit heterogeneity in household adoption of mobile phones using four rounds of the Uganda National Panel Survey (2009, 2010, 2011, and 2013). We find that a 1% increase in the share of households owning a mobile phone is associated with a 1.2% increase in deforestation within a 5-kilometer radius of these households. At the household level, those acquiring a mobile phone see an average of 8% increase in crop cultivation area, driven by households whose main source of income is not agricultural production. These results suggest that mobile phone adoption may lead to sizeable adverse impacts on the environment via an expansion of crop cultivation areas. The estimated increase in deforestation translates to approximately 16,000 tons of lost carbon storage over two years, valued between $3 and $11 million. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a rapidly developing country, Indonesia faces a challenge in improving air quality that is made more difficult by frequent forest fires linked to deforestation and volcanic eruptions. This paper analyses the link between development and air pollution in 30 Indonesian cities from 2002 to 2019. Air quality is measured using two novel regional air quality indicators (AQIs) for PM 2.5 and PM 10 estimated from weather observations and NASA satellite data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Results from an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) analysis, based on a dynamic panel data model, show that forest fires and volcanic activity have significantly worsened regional air quality in Indonesia. The model also shows that the EKC hypothesis is rejected for Indonesia as cities have followed a monotonically increasing trend in air pollution with respect to economic growth. An additional 1% of economic growth increased long run pollution as measured by AQI PM 2.5 and PM 10 by 0.35% and 0.46%, and forest fire events by 0.11% and 0.06%. A partial Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) of forest fires shows that particulate matter pollution is excessive. Decreasing the frequency of forest fires by 1% would generate a net benefit of between US$17 million to 145 million. The lower estimate of the health benefits exceeds the agricultural benefits of forest fire without accounting for other non-market costs due to forest fires. Our results imply that, as Indonesia grows economically, air quality is likely to continue deteriorating. Further, regions affected by regular volcanic activity and wildfires should apply tighter emission standards to controllable point source emissions from industry and non-point source emissions such as agricultural forest fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important initiative of climate action, REDD+ has been increasingly discussed in global policy arena. But delay in wider scale yet full-fledged implementation and its poor performance have raised suspects and pushed REDD+ toward in a long line of "conservation fad". In this paper, we have discussed the following ten questions to REDD+: (1) Does REDD+ address major causes of deforestation? (2) Does REDD+ contribute to global emissions reduction? (3) Does REDD+ recognize the inherent capacity of local people to manage their forests? (4) Does REDD+ respect the rights of indigenous people and local communities? (5) Does REDD+ justify the local governance and countries' sovereignty? (6) Does REDD+ ensure the transparency in program design and architecture? (7) Does REDD+ give credits to the carbon sequestering communities? (8) Does REDD+ supply sufficient reasons to justify the current carbon price? (9) Does REDD+ achieve climate goals through the voluntary carbon markets? and (10) Does REDD+ ensure sustainability of the ongoing projects? While discussing the questions, we have referred to global environmental issues of deforestation, emissions, transparency, decentralized governance, indigenous and local communities, voluntary carbon market, price effect, and other various contemporary sustainability issues. We argue that REDD+ could be a low-hanging fruit and act as a complimentary action to achieve its climate goal if it can address the issues raised under those ten questions. • We have raised and discussed ten important issues for REDD+ to be successful • REDD+ is popularly discussed yet highly debated conservation initiative • Forest centric activities would be inadequate for achieve climate goals through REDD+ • Voluntary carbon market is a challenge for successful REDD+ institutions • REDD+ should secure resource ownership and management authorship of locals [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Channel dynamics of pseudomeandering rivers is poorly known. • The study river reacted very rapidly to sediment supply changes. • Deforestation resulted in an increase of sediment supply and in a braided channel. • Reforestation and gravel mining caused river incision and a low sinuosity channel. • Post mining sediment supply increase was a key factor in shaping channel morphology. Typically, pseudomeandering rivers are gravel-bed streams considered unstable and prone to turning into braided or meandering channels under the effect of external forcings. Channel changes of pseudomeandering rivers have not been investigated in detail so far. This paper analyses the response of a pseudomeandering river (the Cecina River in western central Italy) to variations of sediment supply resulting from streambed material mining and land use change throughout the last two centuries. Old maps and 11 sets of aerial images from 1954 to the present of four representative sites were used to measure the variation through time of bankfull width and channel sinuosity. The changes in the number of bends, chute channels, bank erosion, bend extension, migration and retraction were recorded and the main processes which favoured pseudomeandering river channel changes were investigated. The old maps indicate that in the first half of the XIX century, the study river had probably a braided morphology in response to the increase in sediment supply following the liberalization of deforestation. From the beginning of the XX century to the present, the river had a predominantly single thread, pseudomeandering morphology which did not change during about 20 years of intense gravel mining (the 1960s – mid-1980s) when the main response of the river was channel incision and narrowing. A few years after bed material extraction stopped the river started to widen, to increase channel sinuosity and consolidate its pseudomeandering morphology. The study confirms that marked variations in sediment supply are more effective than floods in triggering river channel changes. The study also shows that the pseudomeandering configuration is less unstable than previously highlighted in other scientific works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation is cutting trees of forests on a huge scale, often resulting in loss of habitat of millions of wild animals. About 30% of earths land is still covered with forests but due to deforestation we are losing them at the rate of about half the size of England per year. In forests, tree cutting activities are illegal but due to shortage of manpower and other resources, governments are not very successful in curbing this menace. One way to stop this is to detect the tree cutting process in an early stage so that timely measures can be taken to stop the same. The simplest method of early detection of tree cutting is to regularly monitor the forest area either manually or using some automatic techniques. As tree cutting generates lot of noise, it can be detected by regularly monitoring the acoustic signals inside the forest. An acoustic signature can provide valuable information about the activities of any intruder inside the forest. This paper proposes an algorithm for automatic detection of tree cutting in forest. The proposed algorithm is based on distance between parameters, along with K-means clustering, GMM and PCA for comparison. The efficiency of proposed algorithm is 92%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper performs the first meta -regression analysis of Chinese aid effectiveness using 1,149 estimates from 29 studies. • Chinese aid is positively associated with economic outcomes in recipient countries. • Chinese aid correlates with deforestation and negative perceptions of China among citizens, albeit negligible in size. • Sub-sample MRAs detect publication selection bias in the Chinese aid effectiveness literature. • Heterogeneity is driven by differences in the choice of data, estimation method, and authors' institutional affiliation. This paper employs a meta -regression analysis of 1,149 estimates from 29 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing's foreign assistance is positively associated with economic outcomes in recipient countries, but correlates with deforestation and negative perceptions of China among citizens, albeit negligible in size. We also show that studies that fail to uncover empirical effects that conform to researchers' expectations are less likely to be submitted or accepted for publication. Differences in the choice of data, estimation method, and authors' institutional affiliation explain the heterogeneity among Chinese aid effectiveness estimates reported in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Results using entropy balancing show that EITI implementation reduces deforestation. • The treatment effect is more significant according to the stage of EITI adoption. • The treatment effect is more significant if we include governance indicators. • The role of EITI in financing sustainable development and combating deforestation. • Further studies could focus on property rights, forest communities and green spending. The exploitation of extractive industries poses a serious threat to the environment. However, the exploitation of extractive industries through an equitable and transparent resource tax regime can also finance alternative livelihoods that can prevent forest loss in the short, medium, or long term. Through two main channels, this paper assesses the "treatment effect" of implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) standard on deforestation in resource-rich developing countries. The first concerns a fair and transparent resource tax regime and environmental payments that can prevent forest loss. The second consists of improving citizens' institutions and living standards through increased government revenue. This study is the first to provide an empirical impact assessment of EITI standards on deforestation. Using a sample of 83 resource-rich developing countries from 2001 to 2017, we use entropy balancing methods to address the self-selection bias associated with EITI membership. Compared with the non-EITI country, the results show that implementing the EITI standard significantly reduces the loss of forest cover by approximately 300–760 ha. Additionally, the magnitudes of the effects are larger and more significant if we include institutional indicators that are more important for EITI-compliant countries. This result supports the conclusion that EITI, but not a panacea, is an effective policy program for limiting the negative impacts on forests partly caused by extractive industries. This study provides clear guidance to both the EITI Board and the EITI National Committees, and more generally, to the governments of extractive resource-rich developing countries on the vital role of the EITI in combating forest cover loss and sustainable development finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We employ nearest neighbor matching to obtain a balanced sample of pixels from certified and non-certified forests. • We estimate Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) and Two-Way Fixed Effect Models (TWFE) with the matched pixel-level data. • Inviting oversight by FSC reduces the probability of deforestation in private properties designated for sustainable forest management. • The greatest potential of forest certification lies in regions with low governance capacity and high deforestation pressure. • Scaling up of certification in new areas can make real contributions to protecting forests and mitigating and adapting to climate change. In the American tropics, logging is almost always highly selective, leaving most of the forest standing and available for future harvest under sustainable forest management. However, forest that has been logged is often more accessible to deforestation agents such as farmers. Thus, areas legally designated for sustainable forest management in reality may be more susceptible to illegal deforestation. Third-party certification of sustainable forest management is one strategy for protecting such forest. In this paper, we estimate the effect of certification by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) on deforestation, drawing on data from the years 2001 to 2019. We observe strong selection effects resulting in systematic differences between certified forest areas and other forest areas designated for sustainable forest management, and we find that after controlling for those selection effects, inviting oversight by FSC reduces the probability of deforestation. Our study design compares forests "treated" with FSC certification to "control" forests designated for sustainable forest management but not (yet) certified in the two Brazilian states of Pará and Rondônia. Adopting pixel-based analyses, we first create a matched sample of treated and control pixels and then estimate GLMM models, with two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models as a robustness check. We find that where forest managers have obtained certification and thus invited oversight by FSC auditors, rates of forest loss are lower (although the results are not fully robust across regions). The estimated effects vary across regions, likely due to varying socioeconomic and policy contexts and competing land uses. We conclude that especially in settings of low governance capacity and high deforestation pressure, certification can contribute to long-term forest conservation by reducing deforestation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We use difference-in-differences estimators suitable for heterogeneous effects. • The study finds no evidence that DRC's logging concessions increase or decrease deforestation and forest degradation. • The study finds no evidence that logging concessions reduce deforestation in high deforestation pressure areas. The Congo Basin is home to the second largest tropical humid forest in the world and an important participant in climate change mitigation. While the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) boasts the largest proportion of Congo basin forests, it is also the main contributor to forest loss. Industrial logging concession is a forest management model that is likely to expand in the DRC in the coming years as the Government recently announced the probable end of the 2002 moratorium on logging concessions. It is thus crucial to understand whether this model can further the DRC's deforestation reduction efforts. The literature suggests that the effect of titling forestland on avoided deforestation and forest degradation is generally limited, unless environmental restrictions are enforced. The DRC's 2002 forest code introduced a new logging concession model that includes requirements to submit and implement Forest Management Plans (FMP) and increase benefit-sharing with communities. Our paper evaluates the impact of this new model of concession contracts signed in 2011 and 2014 on deforestation and forest degradation. We use remotely sensed data series to estimate difference-in-difference models. We ensured baseline parallel trends in deforestation and similarity in baseline characteristics between control and treated units. We find no evidence that deforestation and forest degradation is significantly different between logging concessions and control areas, even for concessions that had their FMP accepted. Our study highlights the need for evaluating the impact of FMPs once they are fully implemented, the importance to improve degradation outcome variables and to conduct complementary studies analyzing impact pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale and pace of land tenure change for agricultural development, often known as 'land grabbing' or 'global land rush,' are historically unprecedented. Control over millions of hectares of land has shifted over the past decade for the production of food, fiber, and biofuel. However, the rapidly growing body of research on land tenure change provides few rigorous assessments of deforestation across multiple countries with distinct biophyisical and socioeconomic characteristics. In this paper, based on spatial boundaries of land transactions (LTs) in Cambodia, Ethiopia, Liberia, and Peru, we investigate their association with deforestation using a pixel-based matching approach. Our findings suggest that the context, size, and distribution of LTs and the associated deforestation patterns vary substantially across the four countries. Land tenure change significantly accelerates deforestation in Cambodia and Liberia, but such acceleration is insignificant in Ethiopia. In Peru, we observe the opposite trend, where areas adjacent to LTs experience higher deforestation than areas within. Our analysis reveals how patterns and outcomes of LTs are linked to country characteristics and contexts, and suggests that sweeping generalizations about positive or negative consequences of LTs on deforestation and possibly other socioenvironmental outcomes need to attend more closely to specific patterns and drivers of LTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a deforestation theoretical framework, with socio-economic determinants and politically motivated armed actors • The case study, Colombia, is a global biodiversity hotspot, currently threatened by its long-term internal armed conflict • The theoretical structure is tested using a wide set of spatiotemporal panel regression specifications • In Colombia, different armed actors have had different and contrasting spatiotemporal effects on deforestation This paper assesses the impact of the Colombian internal armed conflict on local development processes and deforestation during 2000–2018. The paper develops a theoretical framework of the deforestation process, as determined by the spatiotemporal patterns of socio-economic and conflict related variables. These determinants are examined using a system of spatial dynamic panels by land-use activity, and emphasizing interactions and spatiotemporal lags. The theoretical approach is innovative and applicable to other cases where political, economic and ideological interests interact in deforestation processes. In addition, the methodological structure of our spatial panels allows us to determine the effect of armed conflict agents' and socio-economic structures, combined and in isolation. Our results formally verify that different armed actors' strategies and ideologies, determine different and contrasting spatiotemporal patterns of deforestation/conservation, in the context of structural socio-economic determinants in Colombia. We argue about the need of context-specific modelling in any microeconomic or agent-based analysis of deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linking weak governance and forest degradation has received increasing attention in scientific and political spheres. Deforestation remains a global matter as a major agent of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, for endangering the lives of several plant and animal species, and for triggering political disputes involving land tenure and rural violence. Political factors are acknowledged to have a direct impact on forest resources management. Corruption and weak governance are able to deflect policies to private interests, and encourage illegal logging and unlawful allowances to forest degradation even in protected areas. However, the effects of corruption and weak institutions in forest management are still uncertain. This paper offers empirical-based evidence about the relationship between institutional factors and forest cover conversion. The role of weak institutions is explored by employing a logistic model of recent high-resolution global remote sensing data from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC) from 1992 and 2015. We assess the cross-country associations of the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and the World Bank Government Effectiveness (GE) index while controlling for physiographic and structural variables. Results are robust and show, as expected, that difficult access areas pose considerable barriers to forest conversion, and regions of high agricultural suitability are more likely to be converted from forests to agricultural fields. Furthermore, higher government effectiveness with stronger political enforcement, policy design, and lower corruption perception are significantly related to a lower probability of deforestation. Further elaborating governance and corruption indicators with emphasis on forest management/conservation can potentially improve the accuracy of local and cross-country quantitative land use studies. Our findings support the continuous understanding of weak institutions in deforestation debates. The paper highlights the need to fight corruption and to build strong institutions into effective policy strategies. • The study exams the cross-country relationship of institutional indices and high-resolution forest conversion. • Higher government effectiveness and lower corruption perception are significantly related to lower deforestation. • Institutional effects remain consistent when testing for country groups, various sampling sizes and replications. • Results point to the need to strengthening the fight against corruption within forestry conservation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Deforestation-induced rainfall changes negatively impact soybean and maize yields in Brazil. • Soybean and maize yields could have been 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation. • Agricultural efficiency improvements insufficient to counteract rainfall-changes effects on yields. • Study underscores the vital role of forest preservation for agricultural resilience and food security. • Forests' critical role in regulating the water cycle highlighted in the face of climate change. Whereas the global demand for food, fiber and energy is increasing, the capacity of ecosystems services to sustain agricultural production is being compromised worldwide. Brazil is a global food supplier that has benefitted from agricultural intensification in the past decades. At the same time, expansion of cropland has led to deforestation that, in turn, is increasingly affecting rainfall patterns thereby influencing crop yields. This study examines how loss in forest cover has impacted agricultural yields through change in rainfall. To do so, we use modelled data on changes in rainfall patterns due to deforestation as input to a crop model. We assess yield changes within the soybean-maize double cropping system, the country's most relevant agricultural system, in five states within the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Findings revealed that soybean and maize yields would have been respectively 6.6 % and 9.9 % higher per year in the last decade if rainfall patterns hadn't been altered by deforestation from 1982 onwards. Although agricultural efficiency improved between 2011 and 2020, it was insufficient to offset the negative effect of altered rainfall on yields. Our paper reveals the link between deforestation and crop yields, emphasizing the need to preserve forest cover for agricultural resilience and food security. It reinforces the critical role of forests in regulating the water cycle, particularly in the face of climate change-induced warmer and drier conditions that can impact agricultural production and other human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses to what extent it would be possible to ensure food availability to the world population by 2050 with two objectives: healthy diets and no farmland expansion. Assumptions were made to project exogenous demand and supply variables. Climate change impacts on crop yields, grazing use intensities and maximum cultivable areas were taken into account. Cropland and pastureland needs were then estimated for 21 regions using a global biomass balance model. Simulation results established for two sets of crop yield projections ('moderate' versus 'high' growth) show that several regions (India, Rest of Asia, Near- and Middle-East countries and North Africa, as well as West Africa in the case of 'moderate' yield growth) would be constrained by their maximum cultivable areas with no deforestation. Our scenarios would be technically infeasible because of additional pastureland needs notably in sub-Saharan Africa. As a consequence, we analyse to what extent additional levers could reduce pastureland needs in sub-Saharan Africa. [Display omitted] • Farmland areas in 2050 were estimated assuming healthy diets and no deforestation. • MENA and Asia (except China) would be constrained by their available cultivable areas. • The scenarios would be infeasible because of increases in pastureland needs in SSA. • The additional levers analysed would not reduce pastureland needs sufficiently to prevent farmland expansion in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Community managed forest concessions combined with certification performed as well as, and in some cases better than private industrial concessions in reducing forest loss in the Maya Biosphere Reserve. • Community forest management combined with forest certification can be an effective policy tool for reducing deforestation. • The extent to which deforestation is reduced varies based on group characteristics. This paper examines the role of community forest management coupled with mandatory forest certification in Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR). Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification aims to promote sustainable forest practices and increase economic returns for harvesting certified timber through price premiums gained through eco-labeling and specialized access to international markets. Guatemala established community and industrial forest concessions in the reserve as a way to stem rampant deforestation in the region in the 1990s. Concessions are required to obtain FSC certification to maintain their harvesting rights to the forest. The communities that manage the concessions vary across a number of cultural and socio-demographic characteristics, such as income, educational attainment, and previous forest experience. Some community concession members have lived in the region for multiple generations and have historically depended on the forest for their livelihoods, while other groups are comprised of more recent migrants that come primarily from agricultural backgrounds. The differences among the community forest groups, along with the private industrial concessions, allow for a robust examination of the impact of forest certification across different institutional approaches to forest management. Using Hansen's forest loss data from 2000 to 2017 for Guatemala, we employ a random effects model to compare the effectiveness of the community and industrial concessions in reducing deforestation compared to a matched control group. Additionally, we test whether the benefit of increased market access that comes with FSC certification further decreases deforestation. Our findings suggest that sustainable forest management practices have continued to reduce forest loss in the MBR, just as well, if not more so than the industrial concessions, but the impact varies based on community characteristics. The market access component of FSC certification also impacts deforestation, although the effect is small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we employ for the first time a Bayesian process-tracing approach to assess the role of different interventions designed to halt deforestation. We applied the methodology to six initiatives implemented between 2006 and 2019 in the municipality of São Felix do Xingu, namely: (i) institution of protected areas, (ii) environmental monitoring and enforcement, (iii) credit restrictions, (iv) commodity agreements, (v) multi-stakeholder processes, and (vi) value chain projects. Bayesian process tracing is an alternative to traditional counterfactual approaches that allows the gleaning of in-depth insights into 'causal chain' mechanisms and complex interrelationships in individual cases, rather than identifying common or cross-cutting features across different cases. Contrary to traditional process-tracing methodologies, the Bayesian approach provides analytical transparency and replicability through a formal and fine-grained assessment of the strength of the evidence. We assessed 31 individual pieces of evidence, developed using data collected through a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods. We grouped these into interventions spanning three periods of time and traced the causal mechanisms linked to their success or failure. In total, we developed nine theory components. Our results reveal that we are practically certain that four theory components are true. We are also reasonably certain or highly confident that four other theory components are true, and only cautiously confident that one component is true. Drawing on the nine components, we offer a composite theory explaining deforestation outcomes. Our findings provide four implications for global debates. Namely, they provide a strong case for the importance of conceptually distinguishing: the types of actors targeted (e.g., smallholder or medium-to-large landholders) and the frontier status (i.e., whether interventions take place in active frontiers or in consolidated areas). They also prove that interventions may be well implemented for a certain period but can lose effectiveness over time. Finally, our findings call attention to synergies among interventions, and in particular to the combination of regulatory interventions to halt frontier expansion with market-based approaches to incentivize non-deforestation behaviour. • Effectiveness of interventions to halt deforestation is not constant over time. • Effectiveness depends on whether interventions take place in active frontiers or in consolidated areas. • Effectiveness also depends on whether interventions target smallholder or medium-to-large landholders. • Greater effectiveness is achieved through the combination of regulatory interventions with market-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common drug policy in source countries -forced eradication- has unintended consequences in multiple dimensions. Aerial spraying in particular, has social and environmental costs including, increased violence, deforestation, and adverse health outcomes. However, there is less evidence of the unintended consequences of illicit crop substitution programs, another widely used intervention. This paper illustrates an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world, namely increased violence against social leaders. Examining the recent Colombian illicit crop substitution program implemented in 2017, this paper estimates the effect on violence towards social leaders employing an event study econometric strategy. The program increased the rate of social leader killings by 481% and the probability of a killing by 122%. The findings reveal a greater effect on municipalities where leaders oppose the expansion of illicit crops, where organized crime does not hold consolidated power, and where there is a presence of illegal armed groups. This study contributes to the literature on antidrug policies by providing empirical evidence of unintended consequences for local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is evidence that suggests that both the creation of Protected Areas (PAs) and indigenous Reserves (IRs) has helped to reduce deforestation. Nevertheless, there are some overlapping zones between these institutions in the Colombian Amazon that have not been studied. Are these overlaps affecting the deforestation in the IRs? How are the indigenous communities responding to these overlaps? In this paper I estimate the impacts of these overlaps on the deforestation inside the IRs using a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methodology. I use important determinants of the location of PAs and deforestation to create a valid counterfactual within the IRs. My results suggest that the overlap significantly reduces the deforestation, but that there is a differential effect depending on the IR's size. These results suggest that the extra legal restriction imposed by the central government favor the territorial control inside the IRs. This paper provides a starting point to analyze the current relationship between the central government, the indigenous communities and how it affects deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest conversion for farming remains an issue of scientific and societal concern due to its growing impacts on biodiversity and climate change. Therefore, scientists and policymakers emphasise the urgent need to find a balance between forest conservation and agriculture. Meanwhile, across tropical Africa, subsistence farmers account for nearly two-thirds of forest conversion to farms annually. These farmers' perceptions and experiences about forest conversion may offer alternative perspectives about the problem and how to tackle it. However, such viewpoints remain scanty in the sustainable forestry literature. This paper employs narrative policy analysis to disentangle the stories that underpin farming by forest-fringe communities (FFCs) in protected forests. The FFCs' narratives were identified through fieldwork in 12 forest communities of Southwestern Ghana and juxtaposed with forest regulators and cocoa sector actors' narrativization of forest conversion in Ghana. The results indicate that a combination of factors incite FFCs to farm in protected forests, but the perceived need to respond to food insecurity is the most crucial factor. In the absence of strong grassroots organisations, FFCs cannot convey this crucial need to the forest policy arena, leaving it largely unaddressed in forest policy. Thus, forest encroachment has become a tool for FFCs to resist forest conservation, and generally, as a means for their survival. The paper proposes food security corridors (FSCs) as an integrated landscape management option that can enable FFCs and other policy actors to negotiate and institute food security and conservation goalswithin communities trapped in blocks of forest reserves. The potential FSCs hold to overcome forest conversion for subsistence farming can be unleashed when governments, development partners invest to refine and pilot the concept. Overall, the paper contributes to the land-use conflict literature, showing how context-specific food insecurity can accelerate deforestation. Forestry sector actors need to guard against oversimplifying their assumptions about forest conversion in order to find pragmatic and sustainable solutions to the problem. • Smallholder farmers account for about 65% of forest conversion to farmlands in tropical Africa. • The experiences of these farmers have often been neglected in forest policy formulation. • Disentangling the farmers' narratives show food insecurity is most crucial reason why they farm in protected forests. • Food security corridors offer an opportunity to produce food permanently in forest-fringe communities. • Governments and development agencies need to invest to refine and pilot FSCs in communites trapped by protected forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The side effect of the expansion of agricultural activities in the Brazilian Cerrado resulted in a loss of its native vegetation, biodiversity decline, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent expansion has mainly occurred in the northern Cerrado, a region known as MATOPIBA, which is the latest agricultural frontier in Brazil and is largely cultivated for agricultural commodities. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of Cerrado vegetation and agricultural areas in the Cerrado – MATOPIBA (CM) region between 1990 and 2017. Moreover, we analyse the planted area expansion of soybean and other important crops for the region and their productivity, and examine how pasturelands have changed over time. We also present a map of private rural lands and analyse whether they comply with the national Forest Code (FC) regarding in-farm areas of natural vegetation that ought to be preserved by law. Finally, we estimate how much of the current deforestation rates could be avoided in the CM region if the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) or the FC are implemented. Results show a loss of almost 8.4 Mha of the Cerrado vegetation in the study area and an expansion of 4.3 Mha of agricultural lands between 1990 and 2017. Our analysis indicates that soybean planted areas expanded by 326% between 2000 and 2017 and that soybean average productivity increased from 2483 kg/ha in 2000 to2906 kg/ha in 2017. In addition to soybean, other crops also contributed to the agribusiness economy in the CM region, with corn being the crop with the greatest expansion of planted areas over the same period (643,443 ha), and cotton the cultivation with the highest increase in productivity (from 2300 kg/ha to 3822 kg/ha) in these 17 analysed years. Pasturelands expanded from 6.4 Mha in 2000 9.8 Mha in 2017. In 2018, private rural properties consisted of only 7188 large properties and occupied 19.5 Mha, whereas small and medium properties accounted for 136,586 farms and covered a total of only 17.5 Mha. With respect to the national FC, the deficit of preservation areas in the CM region, in relation to the agricultural area of each municipality, totalled almost 1.4 Mha in 2017, with large properties responsible for 57% of this deficit. Looking at the policies and mechanisms to protect the native vegetation of the CM region, we have that 17,219,250 ha can still be deforested on the rural properties in this region; and, if the SoyM was expanded to the Cerrado – MATOPIBA region, almost 900,000 ha covered by native vegetation on the categories of farms selected would have been prevented to be converted to soybeans since 2010. The findings from this paper provide a comprehensive understanding of the land use and land cover changes and of the Cerrado deforestation patterns in the CM region for the last decades, and gather information on conservation policies in place to suggest improvements. Several datasets were combined, mainly focus on quantitative analysis, to investigate the geospatial dynamics of natural and agribusiness areas in the study region, and suggest the need to reinforce the preservation of Cerrado native vegetation areas, particularly those that are liable to be legally deforested. • There are 21.5 Mha of native vegetation covering private rural properties. • 17.2 Mha of these vegetation areas can be legally deforested. • Legal mechanisms are not strong enough in the study region, as 4.3 Mha of native vegetation is liable to be legally deforested. • Agricultural areas expanded by 645% in the CM region between 1990 and 2017. • In 2020, the CM region was responsible for 64% of the Cerrado's deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest certification, originally introduced to promote sustainable forest management and protect forests from threats such as deforestation, has become a large-scale market tool. There is no consensus in the literature on the impact of forest certification on exports. Few studies have analyzed the impact of forest management certification on exports, and none have analyzed this effect at the firm level, taking into account firm heterogeneity. The current paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the impact of the difference in the level of forest management certification between an exporting country and importing or destination countries. In particular, we determine how this impact differs by firm size. Our study focuses on the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC). We use a panel of exports of wood and wood products at the level of French firms. We find that when the level of forest management certification in the exporting country increases relative to that of the importing countries, exports increase; but this occurs to a lesser extent as firm size increases. This result is robust to the various additional analyses. For example, an increase in the difference in the share of PEFC-certified forests by 0.15 is associated with a 90% increase in the value of exports. We also find heterogeneity by product category, geographic area, and income level of destination countries. Our study highlights the role played by forest certification on exports and the need to develop forest certification in a market-driven manner. [Display omitted] • We analyze the impact of forest management certification on exports. • We use a panel of wood and wood product exports at the level of French firms. • We conduct an empirical analysis and find heterogeneous effects. • Exports are increasing with a higher share of certified forests. • Forest certification must be developed with market requirements in mind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After 2010, refugees through the World peaked at the highest level since WW II. Most of this increment was realized between 2011 and 2015 years in the effect of the Syrian conflict and the Arabic spring, and refugee problem that is an important problem for the world emerged. This problem was analyzed in the macroeconomic dimension, in the health dimension by different studies. However, the energy and environmental economy dimensions of this problem has not been adequately analyzed. This paper explored the cointegration and Granger causality between the refugee population, traditional energy consumption(firewood, charcoal, and coal), economic growth, environmental pollution, and deforestation by the tests of Fourier Bootstrapping ARDL (FBARDL) and Granger causality with the Fourier method in the period 1985–2020 in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Uganda. Firstly, whether the series is stationary was investigated by using Fourier unit root tests. Then, the FBARDL test determined the evidence of cointegration among the variables. Finally, by applying Granger causality with the Fourier method, the evidence of unidirectional causality running from the refugee population and traditional energy consumption to deforestation and evidence of unidirectional causality running from the refugee population and traditional energy consumption to environmental pollution were determined. The analysis results draw attention to the impacts of the increasing refugee population on deforestation, and environmental pollution. Governments must develop their long-term environmental policies in the context of the effects of refguee population on sustainability. • The impacts of refugees on deforestation and sustainable environment were explored. • BARDL and Granger causality tests developed with the Fourier method were employed. • Unidirectional causality from the refugee to deforestation and CO 2 emissions was determined. • The results draw attention to the impacts of the increasing refugee population on sustainable environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The countries of the global south are characterized by high levels of biodiversity. In addition, these countries have suffered -and will suffer- even more ecological pressures due to agricultural production, mainly monocultures. When considering areas of high biodiversity with highly intensive agricultural systems, the scientific literature highlights the role provided by Ecosystem Services (ES) both to monocultures and from monocultures to their contexts. In this sense, the objective of this paper is to provide a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to understand the relationship between monocultures and ES in the global south. Furthermore, in this research we provide a context analysis to broaden the understanding of the implications of monocultures in this region. We provide correlations between trends in monocultures harvested areas and forest cover in the countries identified through the SLR. Our SLR identified information from 15 countries and 11 monocultures. We found several negative correlations between harvested area and forest cover, mainly in megadiverse countries. In addition, we depicted trade-offs and synergies related to monocultures. We conclude that more research is needed in this regard, especially since there is great interest in monocultures for economic development in the global south, and this area will support world food production in the future. • We review eleven crops in fifteen countries. • Most of the fifteen countries have high levels of national biodiversity index. • Deforestation is correlated to crops growing in the period 2005–2019. • Regulating ecosystem services are the most affected by the monocrops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian Amazon is suffering from serious deforestation that may lead to catastrophic consequences for the world's climate and biodiversity. Preventing illegal deforestation activities is an emergent and crucial mission for the world. Recently, automated monitoring systems using Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) appear as a promising solution to combat deforestation. However, the quality design of such systems considering the deforestation prevention impacts remains under-explored. In this paper, we propose a socio-ICT (Information Communication Technology) model that enables to analyze the deforestation prevention impacts of a UAV-based monitoring system quantitatively. The socio-ICT model uses a causal loop diagram to formulate the relations among system quality measures and key performance indicators (KPIs) associated with deforestation prevention. Through the numerical study, we estimate the effectiveness of the UAV monitoring system by annual deforestation rate and CO 2 gas emissions. Our analysis shows important design trade-offs need to be considered when planning UAV-based monitoring systems. • Impacts of UAV-based deforestation monitoring are quantitatively analyzed. • Socio-ICT model combines a system-level quality model with a social impact model. • A large monitoring area by many drone flights causes a decreased visiting frequency. • The maintenance period and the activity exposure time are significant factors. • A design tradeoff between drone autonomy and detection accuracy is identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deforestation is depletion of the forest cover and degradation in forest quality mainly through repeated fires, over-exploitation, and diseases. In a forest ecosystem, occurrence of wildfires is a natural phenomena. The curse of global warming and man-made interventions have made the wildfires increasingly extreme and widespread. Though, extremely challenging due to rapidly changing climate, accurate prediction of these fire events can significantly improve forestation worldwide. In this paper, we have addressed this issue by proposing a deep learning (DL) framework using long short term memory (LSTM) model. The proposed mechanism accurately forecasts weekly fire alerts and associated burnt area (ha) utilizing historical fire data provided by GLOBAL FOREST WATCH. Pakistan is taken as a case study since its deforestation rate is among the highest in the world while having one of the lowest forest covers. Number of epochs, dense layers, hidden layers and hidden layer units are varied to optimize the model for high estimation accuracy and low root mean square error (RMSE). Simulation results show that the proposed method can predict the forest fire occurrences with 95% accuracy by employing a suitable hyperparameter tuning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The way vegetation is officially named, classified, and identified has critical implications for ecosystems and biodiversity conservation. Yet little attention is given to how such issues hinder the efficacy of laws mandating environmental conservation on private land. In the Brazilian Amazon where half of the land is now already under private tenure or is available for future land-uses, differences in vegetation mapping and interpretation directly affect the level of protection in private rural properties, especially in transition areas where forest and savanna areas intermingle. Since Brazil's Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) attaches a higher percentage of protection to forest-located properties, landowners may be tempted to use conflicting mappings and different vegetation classifications to claim their properties are located in areas other than forests to reduce their conservation requirements. In this paper, we compare three official vegetation databases and examine different law interpretation scenarios to assess the extent to which the level of private conservation may fluctuate. We found a difference of up to 430,000 km2 of protected vegetation (an area the size of Iraq) according to the database and vegetation characteristics chosen. This technical ambiguity may lead to make additional deforestation legal or reduce sharply the amount of vegetation to be restored for these areas, if left unaddressed. Clarifying the database and criteria used to define forest is critical, especially as Brazilian states may make different choices in that regard, and cases in which loopholes are exploited occurred in the recent past. Given the importance of this region for global biodiversity conservation and climate, we highlight the urgent need to: (1) support additional research to clarify vegetation characteristics and location; (2) agree on a harmonized methodology to determine forests for NVPL implementation, and (3) explore alternative criteria for defining forests when databases conflict. • Accurate native vegetation mapping is key to private forest conservation. • Uncertain vegetation classification weakens compliance with Brazil's forest law. • Study provides scenarios exploring the implications of multiple vegetation databases. • 430,000 square kilometers of the Brazilian Amazon are at risk of reduced protection. • Both deforestation and native vegetation restoration are affected by this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the policy changes occurring in the forest and palm oil sectors of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, through the lens of the transformational change concept. The aim is to first examine whether Sabah is transforming and, if so, to identify the determinants enabling or hindering the change. To determine if Sabah is transforming, we used two criteria: - (i) an ambitious change in the policy framework, that promotes forest conservation and sustainable use, and is moving away from business-as-usual activities; and (ii) the level of implementation of the policies that we identified as supporting transformational change. We found that Sabah very likely did intend to transform. We made this conclusion based on comparing changes in policies occurring in Sabah, and we decided if it is ambitious by primarily comparing Sabah's policies with other Malaysian states, the federal government, and internationally. We showed that: (i) Sabah decided to use voluntary international certification standards (private market instruments) like FSC and RSPO, while the other Malaysian states did not; (ii) they decided to protect more forest compared to national and international targets; and (iii) Sabah is an early mover as the state is one of the first in the world to adopt the RSPO Jurisdictional Approach. But intention needs to be followed by implementation, and this is where the state falls short. The policies in Sabah were not fully implemented because of the patronage system where the more powerful actors used their power to continue with business-as-usual activities, there is frequent political turnover in Sabah, and the state faced difficulty in meeting international standards. Our research shows that local leadership and a local transformational change coalition (civil society actively working in Sabah) mainly prompted the transformational change, although the promises of economic gains and better reputation also played a role. We conclude by emphasising the change must be made more compelling for political leaders, as part of a broader institutional structure, not only through the narrow focus on reducing deforestation but through the development of a more sustainable and equitable national economy, and that consumer countries should play a role in reducing pressures on forest by providing incentives to a state that manages its natural resources sustainably. • Sabah adopted a series of ambitious policy measures to move away from unsustainable exploitation of its forest resources. • One ambitious policy was the RSPO jurisdictional approach which if implemented, is transformational. • Sabah's implementation of transformational policies fell short because of the patronage system in the state. • Local leadership and civil society prompted the transformational change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The end-Triassic mass extinction (ETE), one of the five largest mass extinctions, occurred at 201.6 Ma. It was characterized by dramatic declines in marine and terrestrial ecosystems and was approximately synchronous with the eruption of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Loss of marine biodiversity is linked to extreme global warming while the cause of floral destruction in terrestrial ecosystems remains open to debate. In this paper, biomarker records of higher plants are reported from terrestrial facies in the Haojiagou section of the high palaeolatitude Junggar Basin, northwest China. Strata around the ETE interval are marked by sharp increases in the abundances of cadalene, retene, pimanthrene and furans, which are synchronous with "fern spikes". These results are interpreted as indicating the demise of land vegetation and the enhanced burial of higher plants, consistent with palynological evidence for the loss of floral diversity. The fluctuations in the abundance of n -alkanes series and conversion of n -alkanes peak patterns coincide with wildfires indicated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Based on integrated stratigraphic correlation, the increased burial of higher plants, wildfires and CAMP volcanism are synchronous both in the Haojiagou section and other classic Triassic-Jurassic boundary sections globally. We propose that widespread deforestation may be due to CAMP-derived acid rain and the rapid and large-scale demise of vegetation may have provided moisture-free fuels for wildfires. • Higher plant biomarkers are first reported in a high palaeolatitude terrestrial basin across the Triassic-Jurassic transition. • Similar biomarker features are witnessed at worldwide marine and terrestrial sections, suggesting a global deforestation. • Extensive deforestation and wildfires during the ETE period could be initially caused by the CAMP-originated acid rainfalls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing global demand for natural rubber is driving deforestation due to the expansion of rubber plantations, with consequences for biodiversity, carbon storage, and local communities. There has been little attention given to these issues in Sri Lanka, where rubber production is central to economic growth. Although private initiatives and government regulations aim to reduce deforestation associated with these plantations, it is unclear if these measures effectively protect forests or limit associated risks in the supply chains of companies purchasing Sri Lankan rubber. This paper uses the TRACAST methodological framework and remote sensing to track natural rubber supply chains from Sri Lanka to the U.S and to identify hidden deforestation risks resulting from this trade. We estimate 196 km2 of forest were converted into rubber plantations between 2006 and 2016, including protected forests located in an emerging rubber frontier in southeast Sri Lanka. Our analysis identifies rubber traders and multinational tire manufacturers as key actors that hinder the traceability of rubber back to the plantations. This opacity increases the potential for unsustainably produced rubber to enter global supply chains of transnational corporations such as Loadstar (Michelin) and Nike. Most of these corporations have sustainable procurement policies, but the effectiveness of these policies is compromised by the lack of supply chain transparency. Integrating public and private sector management through inclusive multi-stakeholder initiatives and multi-level land use governance can help overcome these hurdles, prevent future deforestation, and assist Sri Lanka in moving towards more sustainable rubber production. • Deforestation in Sri Lanka due to rubber plantations is understudied. • Remote sensing indicates 196 km2 of forest became rubber plantations (2006–2016). • Exports of rubber from Sri Lanka is flowing into global corporate supply chain. • These rubbers flows are a risk for corporate sustainability. • Better public and private governance can curb deforestation from rubber plantations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We propose a new forest prediction model and use actual deforestation data for optimization and verification. • Use the XGBoost method to reconstruct deforestation intensity data. • Deforestation hotspots in China are mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions. • Our model provides certain reference information for forest disaster prevention and forest management. Forests are important for the global carbon cycle, hydrothermal balance, and climate change. Human activities can exert a significant impact on forest ecosystems, thereby having the potential to alter their physical and chemical properties and thus affecting carbon, water, and heat budgets, and climate change. The historical reconstruction of the disturbance of global forests can help us understand the processes and patterns of human activities and global change. In this paper, we construct a deforestation prediction model using a Spearman correlation coefficient and implement the XGBoost method, using Python 3.6, for the reconstruction of deforestation intensity data from 2000 to 2019. Secondly, the selection of the driver indicators is done by using extreme difference regularization to unify the magnitude, and the potential deforestation area risk index is calculated in the form of equal weights. Finally, the actual deforestation data were used for optimization and validation. The model shows that the deforestation hotspots are mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of China and that there are large differences in deforestation in different provinces. In the future, the fine spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation in China during the historical period can be quantitatively reconstructed, which can provide some reference information for forest disaster prevention and forest management in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The creation of a satellite rapid alert programme (DETER-A) in 2004 was a cornerstone of the Brazilian government's strategy to reduce deforestation. This programme allowed authorities to detect and respond rapidly to periods of deforestation. Due to the fact that the policy instrument was based on multispectral remote radar, weather-related obstacles posed a continuous impediment to the study of deforestation. This paper investigates to what extent cloud cover has reduced the effectiveness of the DETER-A program to detect deforestation. To test this hypothesis, survival model analysis is undertaken on satellite data derived measures of local deforestation. The emphasis is on the state of Maranhão, which is separated into two areas by an arbitrary line of demarcation (Legal Amazon delimitation) where the forest on one side is covered by the satellite monitoring program while the other is not. The results suggest that following the implementation of the satellite monitoring program, there was more deforestation in those years with more cloud persistence in the area covered by the program. Counterfactual simulations indicate that the absence of clouds would have prevented deforestation equivalent to almost 7% of the study region, which is equivalent to 73 million tonnes of CO 2 with a value of US$ 366 million. If the current monitoring system was replaced with the experimental policy instrument DETER-C/DETER INTENSO, cloud cover would be less of an impediment to deforestation detection. • Maranhao in Brazil is divided by an artificial line that separates it in two parts with two different deforestation monitoring policies. • Hence, it provides an ideal setting in which to study the impact of cloud cover on deforestation rates. • When a satellite monitoring programme is in operation, more deforestation occurs during years with greater cloud cover. • Highlights Improved satellite monitoring technologies may have a substantial effect on deforestation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We need to understand how environmental perturbations propagate through watershed systems. • Current watershed models do not fully reflect current status of process understanding. • An integrated watershed modeling capability is needed to address national water challenges. Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across watershed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nation's water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts and anthropogenic changes such as deforestation and urbanization propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key issue in understanding tropical forest disturbance is what drives farmers practicing customary shifting cultivation to clear crop fields in old-growth forest over secondary forest fallows. These farmers typically hold a stock of secondary forest fallows that can be used for cropping in rotation, built up over time in part through initial clearing of old-growth forest. In this paper we examine the most recent field cleared by 2046 indigenous and folk peasant households in 138 communities along three major rivers of the Peruvian Amazon to identify the factors that influence their choice of field location (upland or lowland forests) and type of forest cleared (old-growth or secondary). Data are drawn from a large-scale household and community surveys and remote sensing analysis of Landsat and ArcGIS Worldview imagery. We find that rates of old-growth forest clearing are low and that such land quickly returns to secondary forest cover: about 31% of households cleared forest on the upland (terra firme) but only 8% of households cleared upland old-growth forest. Regression modeling results identify the contextual, historical and household factors that influence the choice to clear upland forest (old-growth or secondary). Access to lowland for floodplain agriculture is associated with lower rates of old-growth forest clearing and higher educational attainment of household heads with increased clearing. Analysis of household land portfolios points to the importance of the size of land holdings, the degree of upland orientation, and the number and age of fallows held at the time of the forest clearing decision in clearing old-growth forest on the upland. Measures to reduce old-growth forest loss around Amazonian communities are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing land-use following deforestation is vital for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. In this paper, for the first time, we assess the potential of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal deep learning methods for large-scale classification of land-use following tropical deforestation using dense satellite time series over six years on the pan-tropical scale (incl. Latin America, Africa, and Asia). Based on an extensive reference database of six forest to land-use conversion types, we find that the spatio-temporal models achieved a substantially higher F1-score accuracies than models that account only for spatial or temporal patterns. Although all models performed better when the scope of the problem was limited to a single continent, the spatial models were more competitive than the temporal ones in this setting. These results suggest that the spatial patterns of land-use within a continent share more commonalities than the temporal patterns and the spatial patterns across continents. This work explores the feasibility of extending and complementing previous efforts for characterizing follow-up land-use after deforestation at a small-scale via human visual interpretation of high resolution RGB imagery. It supports the usage of fast and automated large-scale land-use classification and showcases the value of deep learning methods combined with spatio-temporal satellite data to effectively address the complex tasks of identifying land-use following deforestation in a scalable and cost effective manner. • We classify land-use following deforestation at continental and pan-tropical scales. • Using reference data we test six different spatio-temporal deep learning methods. • Continental models performed better compared to the pan-tropical model. • Pan-tropical spatio-temporal models performed better than spatial or temporal ones • Our results suggest higher spatial than temporal homogeneity at the continental level [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical deforestation has typically been characterized as a process with persistent environmental costs (in the form of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss) and short-lived economic benefits (in the form of one-off timber harvests and agricultural fertility boosts). However, this characterization is largely based on agronomic study of tropical soils, and does not fully capture the long-term agricultural potential of cleared land. Landowners can make investments to improve fertility and raise productivity, extending the time horizons over which agriculture is profitable. Whether they choose to make these investments depends on available technologies, the relative prices of inputs and outputs, and the cost of the alternative strategy of clearing additional forest. There is little evidence on how agricultural productivity in the tropics changes over time for individual farmers, because regional development processes confound changes in land productivity when aggregate data are used. Understanding the trajectory of returns to land after tropical deforestation matters because the effectiveness of policies to limit deforestation, promote reforestation, and encourage agricultural intensification all depend on the values of forested and deforested land to farmers and the time horizons over which those values are maintained. This paper estimates the contributions of forested, newly-deforested, and long-deforested land to total property values reported by smallholders in established agrarian settlements in the western Brazilian Amazon. We find—during a decade in which the Brazilian government significantly strengthened its enforcement of forest laws—that deforested land retained its value, the value of forested land increased relative to cleared land, and the value of newly cleared land declined. • We estimate the trajectory of land values after land is converted from forest to agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon. • Deforested land has retained its value over periods of more than 15 years after deforestation. • The relative value of standing forest increased during a period of stronger forest protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Many firms buying forest-risk products made zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs). • To achieve conservation goals, ZDCs may exclude vulnerable producers from markets. • Following 7 policy design principles can achieve effectiveness-access equity synergies. • We evaluate 28 ZDC implementation mechanisms in 4 leading forest-risk commodities. • Companies should better support vulnerable producers in achieving compliance. In response to the clearing of tropical forests for agricultural expansion, agri-food companies have adopted promises to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains in the form of 'zero-deforestation commitments' (ZDCs). While there is growing evidence about the environmental effectiveness of these commitments (i.e., whether they meet their conservation goals), there is little information on how they influence producers' opportunity to access sustainable markets and related livelihood outcomes, or how design and implementation choices influence tradeoffs or potential synergies between effectiveness and equity in access. This paper explores these research gaps and makes three main contributions by: i) defining and justifying the importance of analyzing access equity and its relation to effectiveness when implementing forest-focused supply chain policies such as ZDCs, ii) identifying seven policy design principles that are likely to maximize synergies between effectiveness and access equity, and iii) assessing effectiveness-access equity tensions and synergies across common ZDC implementation mechanisms amongst the five largest firms in each of the leading agricultural forest-risk commodity sectors: palm oil, soybeans, beef cattle, and cocoa. To enhance forest conservation while avoiding harm to the most vulnerable farmers in the tropics, it is necessary to combine stringent rules with widespread capacity building, greater involvement of affected actors in the co-production of implementation mechanisms, and support for alternative rural development paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We explore stakeholders perceptions on REDD+ finance in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam. • Actors agree that the lack of finance is not the most significant challenge. • Addressing funding gaps alone will not help to advance REDD+ policies. • Effective REDD+ implementation requires improved forest governance. • Recognizing and addressing drivers of deforestation are essential for REDD+ success. Financing REDD+ is complex, due to the need to seek answers not only to the question of who should finance REDD+, but also who should benefit from it. This paper examines the perceptions of REDD+ stakeholders in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam on different aspects of financing: who should finance REDD+ and who should receive REDD+ benefits for what. Our findings show these issues are political, driven by economic considerations at national level and – despite the narrative of inclusive, participatory decision making – are largely determined by governments. Lack of finance was thereby not always considered by national policy actors to be the most significant challenge during 2010–2019; rather other issues – like lack of knowledge on REDD+ by relevant actors; ineffective coordination between state agencies, the private sector and civil society; unclear tenure rights; ineffectively addressing the main deforestation drivers; low law enforcement capacity; and unclear benefit-sharing mechanisms – have also been perceived to impede REDD+ implementation and payment distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]