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Keywords Family business; Globalization; Economic changes; Bibliometric analysis Highlights * The acceleration of globalization has put forward new requirements on corporate strategy. * This paper highlights the innovative measures of the family business in the context of globalization and identifies the frontiers in this field. * The impact of globalization on family business continues to be a critical issue of research. * According to multiple methods, such as the descriptive analysis, the bibliographic coupling analysis, the co-citation analysis, and the co-occurrence analysis, the evolution, characteristics, and hot topics of family business are summarized. * From the analysis results, family businesses have been actively seeking change to adapt to the new stage of globalization. Abstract Accelerated globalization has created new requirements for corporate strategies. Understanding the statistical relationship between economic globalization and family business development is important in advancing the theory and practice in this field. This study aims to explore economic changes and their influence on the family businesses when globalization thrives. To achieve this, we utilize a bibliometric analysis with visualization tools: VOSviewer and R Bibliometrix. The relevant literature from 1900 to 2021 is collected using retrieval formulas from the Web of Science Core Collection. First, this study analyzes the literature from multiple aspects, including authors, citations, journals, keywords, and countries, to define the features of the publications. Then, bibliographic coupling, co-citation, and co-occurrence analyses are conducted. The results show the evolution of the literature related to family businesses with globalization. Furthermore, the current challenges and popular issues are discussed for future research. This paper highlights the innovative measures of family businesses in the context of globalization and identifies the frontiers in this field. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China (b) Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China (c) Juraj Dobrila Univ Pula, Fac Econ & Tourism Dr Mijo Mirkovic, Preradoviceva 1-1, Pula 52100, Croatia * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 1 February 2022; Revised 5 August 2022; Accepted 9 August 2022 Byline: Hangyao Wu (a), Zeshui Xu (b), Marinko Skare [mskare@unipu.hr] (c,*)

Keywords Transportation; Heuristics; Swap-body; Transfers; Mixed integer programming Highlights * We introduce the vessel swap-body routing problem. * We investigate the impact of body transfers on the search space and the solution quality. * We provide an instance set generated based on real-world data. * We introduce a mixed integer programming formulation. * We introduce heuristics for solving the instances. Abstract This paper introduces the Vessel Swap-Body Routing problem (VSBR), a generalization of the pickup and delivery problem with time windows, which considers freight distribution between ports located throughout an inland waterway network. Subject to time windows and precedence constraints, each customer request is associated with a number of containers and must be served via a single body. Bodies are capacitated components that cannot move independently and must therefore be towed by a vessel. Bodies can be transferred between vessels at customer locations or transfer points in order to reduce overall costs. Vessels and bodies can end their routes at any location, meaning they do not need to return to a depot. Moreover, every vessel-body combination is permitted, which greatly expands the size of the solution search space. Although body transfers constitute a fundamental component of this real-world problem, the flexibility such transfers engender poses a huge logistical challenge to the human planners tasked with efficiently scheduling vessel routes. In this paper we model the VSBR as an optimization problem and introduce complementary approaches for solving it. We propose a mixed integer programming formulation and a heuristic approach with tailored neighborhoods for body transfers. To help stimulate further research, a set of instances is introduced based on real-world data and benchmarks are made publicly available. Author Affiliation: (a) KU Leuven, Dept. of Computer Science, Leuven.AI, Leuven B-3000, Belgium (b) Department of Computing, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Brazil * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 25 May 2021; Accepted 4 February 2022 Byline: Vinícius S.M. Gandra [vinicius.gandramartinssantos@kuleuven.be] (*,a,b), Hatice Çalik [hatice.calik@kuleuven.be] (a), Túlio A.M. Toffolo [tulio@toffolo.com.br] (b), Marco Antonio M. Carvalho [mamc@ufop.edu.br] (b), Greet Vanden Berghe [greet.vandenberghe@cs.kuleuven.be] (a)

Keywords Productivity and efficiency; Production functions; Convex non-parametric least squares; Causal models; Deconfounding Highlights * In this paper we consider Convex Nonparametric Least Squares (CNLS) when productivity is introduced. * When productivity shocks are known to the producers, input choices are endogenous and estimators of production function parameters become inconsistent. * As CNLS has excellent properties in terms of approximating arbitrary monotone concave functions, we use it, along with flexible formulations of productivity. * We estimate inefficiency and productivity growth in Chilean manufacturing plants. * Unlike the Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions, the CNLS system is found to admit a causal interpretation. Abstract In this paper we consider Convex Nonparametric Least Squares (CNLS) when productivity is introduced. In modern treatments of production function estimation, the issue has gained great importance as when productivity shocks are known to the producers, input choices are endogenous and estimators of production function parameters become inconsistent. As CNLS has excellent properties in terms of approximating arbitrary monotone concave functions, we use it, along with flexible formulations of productivity, to estimate inefficiency and productivity growth in Chilean manufacturing plants. Inefficiency and productivity dynamics are explored in some detail along with marginal effects of contextual variables on productivity growth, inputs, and output. Additionally, we examine the causal structure between inefficiency and productivity as well as model validity based on a causal deconfounding approach. Unlike the Cobb-Douglas and translog production functions, the CNLS system is found to admit a causal interpretation. Author Affiliation: Montpellier Business School & Lancaster University Management School, LA1 4YX, UK Article History: Received 5 July 2021; Accepted 8 February 2022 Byline: Mike G. Tsionas [m.tsionas@lancaster.ac.uk]

Keywords Productivity and competitiveness; Subsidies; Endogeneity; Semiparametric smooth coefficient models Highlights * A semiparametric smooth coefficient model framework investigates both neutral and non-neutral effects of subsidies. * An original econometric model incorporates the endogeneity of subsidies. * A bias correction identification procedure takes into account the censoring feature of subsidies. Abstract This paper examines the effect of government subsidies on firm-level productivity. The subsidy-promoting policies are oftentimes justified on the ground that subsidies increase the recipient firms' innovation and productivity. We develop a novel (semiparametric) method to structurally identify the firm-level productivity in the presence of subsidies. Unlike previous studies, we assume that subsidies are endogenous. To correct for the endogeneity problem, we use a switching regression in our semiparametric production function. Our method provides an improved framework for estimating the production function with endogenous and/or censored variables. We apply our method to study the effect of subsidies on firm-level productivity in the Chinese machinery industry, using panel data from 1998 to 2007. We find strong empirical evidence that subsidies have a positive effect on firms' persistent productivity. Subsidies may allow firms to invest more on research and development (R&D) and thus improve productivity. Using the available R&D data, we find evidence to support this explanation that more subsidies are associated with higher R&D investment. We also carry out a decomposition analysis to separately examine the subsidy effect on output via the input channel and the persistent productivity channel. Opposite effects are found from the two channels and overall subsidies have a positive effect on a firm's output. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China (b) Department of Economics, State University of New York at Binghamton, NY, USA (c) Department of Economics, Oakland University, MI, USA (d) University of Stavanger Business School, Norway * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 26 January 2021; Accepted 13 February 2022 (footnote)[white star] We would like to thank the Editor, Professor Mike Yearworth and three anonymous referees, whose comments substantially improved the paper. We also would like to thank Professors Shunan Zhao, Brian Hardaker, Ivan Korolev, Qiankun Zhou, Zhezhi Hou, and David Slichter for their helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. Byline: Mingyang Li [mli134@binghamton.edu] (*,a,b), Man Jin [mjin@oakland.edu] (c), Subal C. Kumbhakar [kkar@binghamton.edu] (b,d)

Keywords Deep learning; 6G; 5G; Federated learning; Reinforcement learning; O-RAN; Zero-trust architecture Abstract In this position paper, we discuss the critical need for integrating zero trust (ZT) principles into next-generation communication networks (5G/6G). We highlight the challenges and introduce the concept of an intelligent zero trust architecture (i-ZTA) as a security framework in 5G/6G networks with untrusted components. While network virtualization, software-defined networking (SDN), and service-based architectures (SBA) are key enablers of 5G networks, operating in an untrusted environment has also become a key feature of the networks. Further, seamless connectivity to a high volume of devices has broadened the attack surface on information infrastructure. Network assurance in a dynamic untrusted environment calls for revolutionary architectures beyond existing static security frameworks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first position paper that presents the architectural concept design of an i-ZTA upon which modern artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can be developed to provide information security in untrusted networks. We introduce key ZT principles as real-time Monitoring of the security state of network assets, Evaluating the risk of individual access requests, and Deciding on access authorization using a dynamic trust algorithm, called MED components. To ensure ease of integration, the envisioned architecture adopts an SBA-based design, similar to the 3GPP specification of 5G networks, by leveraging the open radio access network (O-RAN) architecture with appropriate real-time engines and network interfaces for collecting necessary machine learning data. Therefore, this work provides novel research directions to design machine learning based components that contribute towards i-ZTA for the future 5G/6G networks. Author Affiliation: (a) Marconi-Rosenblatt AI/ML Innovation Laboratory, ANDRO Computational Solutions, LLC, Rome, 13440, NY, USA (b) Department of Electrical Engineering, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo, 14260, NY, USA * Corresponding author at: Marconi-Rosenblatt AI/ML Innovation Laboratory, ANDRO Computational Solutions, LLC, Rome, 13440, NY, USA. Article History: Received 19 February 2022; Revised 26 July 2022; Accepted 3 September 2022 Byline: Keyvan Ramezanpour (a), Jithin Jagannath [jjagannath@androcs.com] (a,b,*)

Keywords Network function virtualization; Virtual network function allocation; Service function chain; Network resilience; Redundancy; Network diversity Abstract This paper proposes an optimization model to derive a resilient virtual network function allocation in service function chains aiming to reduce the end-to-end (E2E) latency during the migrations from the primary functions to backup functions. The model considers k-fault tolerance assurance and the satisfactions of service requirements under different error patterns in this model. The allocation provided by the proposed model ensures that the processing ability satisfies the requirements even though there are k failed nodes in the network. Diversity splits a single virtual network function (VNF) into a pool of replicas with different specifications. The diversity of both primary and backup functions is considered. Redundancy is used for recovering the failed functions. We formulate the proposed model as a mixed integer linear programming problem to select suitable replicas from the pools of replicas and decide the locations of these replicas for both primary and backup functions. The objective of the proposed model is to minimize the sum of the maximum E2E latencies among functions under all possible failure patterns which have k node failures. The numerical results show that the proposed model reduces the E2E latency between the pair of primary and backup VNFs with ensuring the resiliency of the functions compared with baseline models in the examined cases. Two approximate approaches are developed to reduce the computation time of solving the proposed model with a limited performance penalty. We derive theorems to give the bounds of maximum resiliency in the proposed model. Author Affiliation: Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 23 February 2022; Revised 10 August 2022; Accepted 11 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] Funding for this research was provided by: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (21H03426, 21J21552). A part of this paper was presented in Kang et al. (2021) at IEEE International Conference on Communications 2021 (ICC 2021), June 2021. Byline: Rui Kang [kang.rui.74z@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp] (*), Fujun He [fujunhe@ieee.org], Eiji Oki [oki@i.kyoto-u.ac.jp]

Keywords Multiple objective programming; Branch and bound; Combinatorial optimization; Linear relaxation; Warm-starting Highlights * Develops a branch-and-bound algorithm for multi-objective integer problems. * Uses the linear relaxation as a lower bound set in the algorithm. * Warm-starts the linear relaxation using information from the father node. * Warm-starting the linear relaxation improves efficiency considerably. * Reports extensive computational results. Abstract In this paper we propose a generic branch-and-bound algorithm for solving multi-objective integer linear programming problems. In the recent literature, competitive frameworks has been proposed for bi-objective 0--1 problems, and many of these frameworks rely on the use of the linear relaxation to obtain lower bound sets. When increasing the number of objective functions, however, the polyhedral structure of the linear relaxation becomes more complex, and consequently requires more computational effort to obtain. In this paper we overcome this obstacle by speeding up the computations. To do so, in each branching node we use information available from its father node to warm-start a Bensons-like algorithm. We show that the proposed algorithm significantly reduces the CPU time of the framework on several different problem classes with three, four and five objective functions. Moreover, we point out difficulties that arise when non-binary integer variables are introduced in the models, and test our algorithm on problem that contains non-binary integer variables too. Author Affiliation: Department of Economics and Business Economics, School of Business and Social Sciences, Aarhus University, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 5 August 2021; Accepted 31 January 2022 Byline: Nicolas Forget [nforget@econ.au.dk] (*), Sune Lauth Gadegaard, Lars Relund Nielsen

Keywords Long-Run Risk; Short and Long-Run Required Capital; Risk Profile; Microprudential Supervision; Pension Fund; Low Carbon; Transition Risks Abstract One of the objectives of the recent microprudential regulation is to separate the computation of required capital for short-run and long-run risks. This paper provides a coherent framework to define, compute, and update these components. The approach is developed in greater details in the context of the transition to low-carbon economies. A numerical example is given. Acronyms ACPR, Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution; BC, British Columbia; BIS, Bank for International Settlements; DICE, Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy; EACDPF, Energy-Augmented Cobb-Douglas Production Function; EBA, European Banking Authority; ES, Expected Shortfall; EU, European Union; ESG, Environmental, Social and Governance; GHG, Greenhouse Gas.; GHGRP, Greenhouse Gas Emission Report; GICS, Global Industry Classification Standard; HCF, Hydrofluorocarbon; HLCCP, High Level Commission on Carbon Prices; HS, Harmonized System; HSBC, Hong-Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation; IAM, Integrated Assessment Model; ICS, Industry Classification System; ILS, Insurance Linked Security; IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IR, Investment Responsable (fund); ISIC, International Standard Industrial Classification; NACE, Nomenclature des Activités Commerciales et Économiques; NGFS, Network for Greening the Financial System; OECD, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; PFC, Perfluorinated Hydrocarbons; RCC, Required Capital Call; SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission; SLB, Sustainability Linked Bonds; SREP, Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process; UIC, Uniform Integrable in Cesaro (sense); VaR, Value-at-Risk Author Affiliation: (a) University of Toronto (Canada), Toulouse School of Economics, CREST (France) (b) CREST (France) (c) University of Lausanne (Switzerland) * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 21 December 2021; Revised 21 July 2022; Accepted 29 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Banque de France or the ACPR. The first author gratefully acknowledges financial support of the ACPR Chair 'Regulation and Systemic Risks', and the ERC DYSMOIA. We are grateful to anonymous referees and the editor (Giulia Iori) for useful comments and suggestions. We also thank participants at the 20th International CREDIT conference and at the 15th Financial Risks International Forum. Replication codes are available upon request. Byline: C. Gouriéroux [christian.gourieroux@ensae.fr] (a), A. Monfort [alain.monfort@ensae.fr] (b), J.-P. Renne [jean-paul.renne@unil.ch] (*,c)

This paper studies the extent to which biased policy preferences, motivated by narrow institutional mandates, affect the gains from coordination between monetary policy (which may respond to financial imbalances) and macroprudential regulation (in the form of capital requirements) in responding to financial stability considerations, and whether these mandates can be set optimally. Numerical experiments show that, depending on the degree of bias in policy preferences, coordination may not entail burden sharing (in the sense of one policymaker reacting more, and the other less, aggressively to financial stability concerns) and may not be Pareto improving relative to the Nash equilibrium--even though it may generate significant gains for the economy as a whole. The optimal institutional mandate, based on maximizing household welfare under coordination, internalizes the impact of the cost of each policymaker's own instrument use on policy decisions. As a result, there may be an inverse relationship between the degree of bias in preferences and the instrument manipulation cost. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, United Kingdom (b) Economics Group, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 24 August 2021; Revised 10 March 2022; Accepted 28 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to several colleagues, participants at various seminars, and especially two anonymous reviewers for many helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are our sole responsibility. Appendices B, C and D are available upon request. Byline: Pierre-Richard Agénor (a), Timothy P. Jackson [timothy.jackson2@liverpool.ac.uk] (*,b)

Keywords Empirical methods; Count data; Poisson regression Abstract This paper assesses different econometric approaches to working with count-based outcome variables and other outcomes with similar distributions, which are increasingly common in corporate finance applications. We demonstrate that the common practice of estimating linear regressions of the log of 1 plus the outcome produces estimates with no natural interpretation that can have the wrong sign in expectation. In contrast, a simple fixed-effects Poisson model produces consistent and reasonably efficient estimates under more general conditions than commonly assumed. We also show through replication of existing papers that economic conclusions can be highly sensitive to the regression model employed. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Texas at Austin, McCombs School of Business Austin, TX, United States (b) University of Houston, Bauer College of Business Houston, TX, United States (c) University of Georgia, Terry College of Business, Athens, GA, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 11 April 2022; Revised 10 August 2022; Accepted 12 August 2022 Byline: Jonathan B. Cohn [jonathan.cohn@mccombs.utexas.edu] (a), Zack Liu [zliu@bauer.uh.edu] (b), Malcolm I. Wardlaw [malcolm.wardlaw@uga.edu] (*,c)

Keywords Inequality; Bankruptcy; Climate change; Natural disaster; FEMA; SBA Abstract Outside of flood hazard zones, households must decide whether to insure or rely on disaster assistance to manage flood risk. We use the quasi-random flooding generated by Hurricane Harvey, which hit Houston in August 2017, to understand the implications of flood losses for households with differing access to insurance and credit. Outside the floodplain, credit-constrained homeowners experience a 20% increase in bankruptcies and a 13% increase in the share of debt in severe delinquency in flooded blocks relative to non-flooded areas. Treatment effects are universally insignificant inside the floodplain, implying that flood insurance mitigates the financial impact of flooding across the credit distribution. Disaster assistance, on the other hand, does not appear to counteract the role of initial inequalities on post-disaster credit outcomes. We find SBA disaster loans and, more surprisingly, FEMA grants to both be regressive in allocation. Our results highlight that averages mask important heterogeneity after disasters, which challenges existing narratives of how effectively Federal disaster programs mitigate the financial burden of natural disasters. Author Affiliation: (a) Finance Department, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder, 995 Regent Dr, Boulder, CO 80309, USA (b) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Institute for Economic Equity, USA * Corresponding author at: Finance Department, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder, 995 Regent Dr, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. Article History: Received 1 October 2021; Revised 29 November 2021; Accepted 29 November 2021 (footnote)[white star] Toni Whited was the editor for this article. For their valuable feedback, we thank Asaf Bernstein, Ben Collier, Tony Cookson, Justin Gallagher, John Lynch, Sarah Miller, Amiyatosh Purnandam, Tess Scharlemann, Toni Whited, two anonymous referees, as well as representatives at FEMA and SBA. This paper benefited from discussions with participants at the Urban Economics Association meetings, Midwest Finance Association meetings, Federal Reserve Data Research Conference, University of Colorado, University of Michigan, APPAM, AREUEA, MFA, Summer Conference on Consumer Financial-Decision Making. The views expressed in these papers are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. No statements here should be treated as legal advice. Byline: Stephen B. Billings [stephen.billings@Colorado.edu] (a), Emily A. Gallagher [emily.a.gallagher@colorado.edu] (*,a,b), Lowell Ricketts [lowell.r.ricketts@stls.frb.org] (b)

Keywords Corporate culture; Values; Norms; Leadership; Corporate governance; Incentive compensation; Informal institutions; Intangible assets; Risk-taking; Myopia; Innovation; Firm value; Productivity; M&A valuation; Integrity; Trust; Ethics; Compliance; Earnings management; Intrinsic motivation Abstract Ninety-two percent of the 1348 North American executives we survey believe that improving corporate culture would increase firm value. A striking 84% believe their company needs to improve its culture. But how can that be achieved? Our paper provides some guidance by documenting the following: executives' views on what corporate culture is and how it operates, distinguishing between stated values and everyday norms; the extent to which culture is perceived to influence value creation (productivity, mergers), ethical choices (compliance, short-termism), and innovation (creativity, risk-taking); and a list of obstacles that can prevent culture from being where it should be (inattentive leaders, misaligned incentive compensation). Finally, we provide evidence that the executives' survey responses are consistent with external data. Author Affiliation: (a) Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708 USA (b) National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 02138 USA (c) Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, 95053 USA (d) Columbia Business School, New York, NY, 10027 USA * Corresponding author at: Finance Department, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 100 Fuqua Drive, Durham, NC 27708, USA. Article History: Received 26 June 2019; Revised 27 July 2022; Accepted 27 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] Toni Whited and Bill Schwert were the editors for this article. We thank CFO magazine, Fuqua's Center on Leadership and Ethics (COLE), and Columbia Business School External Relations for their partnership in conducting the survey; the results presented herein do not necessarily reflect their views. We are especially grateful to our research team of 61 RAs who helped transcribe interviews, discover CXO emails, send personal invitations to participants, classify responses, and check tables. We thank the following people for providing helpful feedback on the survey instrument: Sigal Barsade, Charles Calomiris, John Core, Cesare Fracassi, Paul Ingram, Simi Kedia, Hamid Mehran, Thomas Noone, Susan Ochs, Charles O'Reilly, and Suraj Srinivasan. We thank an anonymous referee, Alon Brav, Francois Brochet, Diego Garcia, Simon Gervais, Marina Niessner, Kelly Shue, David Yermack, Luigi Zingales, workshop participants at American Finance Association Meetings, Utah Winter Finance Conference, American Accounting Association Meetings, NBER Summer Institute, Tel Aviv Finance Conference, Conference on Financial Economics and Accounting, Mountain Finance Conference, Journal of Accounting and Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference, International Atlantic Economic Society Conference, Duke University, University of Virginia, Rice University, Yale University, Aalto University, Hanken School of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis, University of Illinois, Indian School of Business, Temple University, Rutgers University, Norges Bank, Baruch College, and Fordham University for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of the paper. Replication data can be downloaded at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/corporateculturesurveydata Byline: John R. Graham [john.graham@duke.edu] (*,a,b), Jillian Grennan [jgrennan@scu.edu] (c), Campbell R. Harvey [cam.harvey@duke.edu] (a,b), Shivaram Rajgopal [sr3269@gsb.columbia.edu] (d)

Keywords Bio-pharmaceutical industry; New product development; Firm performance; Portfolio diversity; Sourcing; TCE; Offshoring; Outsourcing Highlights * This paper develops the Sourcing Portfolio Diversity construct and examines its antecedents and impact on firm performance. * Data on clinical trials was used to test sourcing portfolio of new product development in the bio-pharmaceutical industry. * Our empirical findings confirm our claim that greater sourcing portfolio diversity enhances firms' performance. * We find that diversity of technological applications and product pipeline are related to diversity in sourcing portfolios. Abstract This paper examines the antecedents and performance outcomes of sourcing portfolio diversity in firms' new product development (NPD). Sourcing portfolio diversity measures the degree to which a firm uses multiple sourcing choices along both organizational and geographic dimensions including domestic in-house sourcing, domestic outsourcing, captive offshoring, and offshore outsourcing. We extend transaction cost economics (TCE) to the portfolio level of analysis and predict that sourcing portfolio diversity in NPD is driven by heterogeneity in two transactional characteristics--technological application diversity, reflecting asset specificity, and variance in project-stage uncertainty. We also argue that the positive effect of sourcing portfolio diversity on firms' financial performance is driven by aligning sourcing portfolio configuration with the sources of transactional heterogeneity, increased strategic agility, and complementarities between individual sourcing choices. Our empirical study of NPD in the bio-pharmaceutical industry confirms our predictions. We contribute to research on sourcing and NPD by conceptually building and empirically establishing relevance of the sourcing diversity at the portfolio level of analysis and bringing the question of sourcing strategy to the forefront of NPD portfolio management concerns. Author Affiliation: Department of Business Administration, The Williams School of Commerce, Economics and Politics, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, VA, United States Department of Management, John Chambers College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, United States Department of Management and Global Business, Rutgers Business School, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 15 March 2021; Revised 3 June 2022; Accepted 8 June 2022 Byline: Pooja Thakur-Wernz [pthakur-wernz@wlu.edu] (*), Olga Bruyaka [olga.bruyaka@mail.wvu.edu], Farok Contractor [farok@business.rutgers.edu]

Keywords Celebrity endorsement; Eye-tracking; Meaning transfer; Match-up hypothesis; Serial mediation model; Destination marketing Highlights * Examines the effectiveness of different types of celebrity endorsement. * Combines eye-tracking techniques with self-report method. * A source celebrity is more effective in eliciting tourist responses. * Examines a serial mediation model underlying the main effect. * Examines the moderating role of regulatory focus. Abstract Celebrity endorsement has become ubiquitous in international destination marketing, but studies have rarely assessed the differences between the effects of endorsement by a local celebrity vs. a celebrity from tourist source countries (source celebrity). To bridge the literature gap, this paper draws on meaning transfer theory and match-up hypothesis to examine the effectiveness of these two types of celebrity endorsement by exploring the underlying mechanism. By carrying out a pretest and three experiments, the eye-tracking results and lab experiments show that international destination marketing involving a source celebrity (vs. local celebrity) can significantly increase tourists' visual attention to the advertising destination scenery, positive attitudes toward the destination and intentions to visit. Furthermore, a serial mediation model of celebrity endorsement [right arrow] celebrity--tourist congruency [right arrow] tourist attitude toward celebrity [right arrow] tourist response is also identified. Finally, this paper empirically examines the moderating role of regulatory focus on the celebrity endorsement effect. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 Xingang W Rd, Guangdong, China (b) Department of Tourism, Sport & Hotel Management, Griffith University, Parklands Dr, Gold Coast, QLD 4222, Australia (c) School of Business, Sun Yat-sen University, 135 Xingang W Rd, Guangdong, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 5 February 2021; Revised 15 June 2022; Accepted 18 June 2022 (footnote)1 Yaoqi Li is a Professor at the School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, China. His research interests include occupational stigma and tourist behavior. He also serves as the head of Department of Hotel Management at Sun Yat-sen University. (footnote)2 Biqiang Liu is a PhD candidate in the Department of Tourism, Sport & Hotel Management, Griffith University, Australia. His research interests include tourist experiences and tourist behaviour. (footnote)3 Lishan Xie is a Professor at the School of Business, Sun Yat-sen University, China. Her research interests include services marketing, hospitality and tourism management. She also serves as the director of Centre for Service Business Administration at Sun Yat-sen University. Byline: Yaoqi Li [liyaoqi3@mail.sysu.edu.cn] (a,1), Biqiang Liu [biqiang.liu@griffithuni.edu.au] (b,2), Lishan Xie [mnsxls@mail.sysu.edu.cn] (c,*,3)

Keywords Marketing networks; Distributed micro manufacturing; AI mediated consumption; Innovation clusters; Distributed marketing platforms Highlights * Business environments have become hyperturbulent due to exponential growth in knowledge and disruptive technologies. Interfirm marketing networks have to evolve more resilient structures by distributing functions closer to the sources of turbulence. * Manufacturing is being postponed and distributed closer to consumption. * Consumer markets are increasingly mediated by intelligent devices and algorithms. The markets are approaching perfect information and perfect heterogeneity. * Innovation is being distributed in clusters of technology firms and multiplex ecosystems. * The marketing hub at the center of the interfirm network is evolving into a technology platform and organizer of distributed manufacturing franchises. Abstract Interfirm networks are fundamental to market organization. The business environment is experiencing disruptive changes--uncertainty is increasing to levels of turbulence due to exponential growth in knowledge and technologies. There is a growing gap in our understanding of how all the changes are affecting the structure of interorganizational networks. This paper makes the case that networks are likely to reorganize around four strategic foci--distributed micro manufacturing, AI mediated consumption, distributed innovation, and distributed marketing. Our analysis suggests that the distributed networks will employ more polyarchic market mechanisms than the hierarchical or relational mechanisms of the past, and marketing will evolve a horizontal strategic posture, as well as reintegrate production but in a distributed micro-manufacturing framework. Author Affiliation: (a) The George Washington University School of Business, 307 Funger Hall, 2201 G Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052, United States (b) S. C. Johnson Distinguished Professor of Marketing, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University (emeritus), Evanston, IL, United States Article History: Received 13 August 2021; Revised 9 June 2022; Accepted 15 June 2022 (footnote)[white star] The authors thank two editors and two reviewers for their careful analyses and suggestions for the development of this paper. Byline: Ravi S. Achrol [achrol@gwu.edu] (a), Philip Kotler [pkotler@aol.com] (b)

Keywords Customer participation; Interpersonal attraction; Customer citizenship behavior; Shared interpersonal similarity; Task outcomes Abstract This paper addresses the lack of clarity on the linkage between customer participation (CP) and customer citizenship behavior (CCB) by using reinforcement theory to investigate the mediating role of interpersonal attraction (IPA) and the moderating effect of three types of reinforcers (people, task, and environment) in the impact of CP on CCB. Dyadic data from a field survey of both customers and designers from an interior design institute confirms the mediating role of IPA, particularly under high level of shared similarity between customers and employees, and when the task outcomes are better than expected. Moreover, the effect of IPA on CCB is stronger when customers perceive the organizational climate as highly customer-oriented. Besides extending the CP and CCB literature by exploring the impact of IPA on CCB with CP as a mediator and several reinforcers as moderator, this paper also suggests how service firms may influence their customers' citizenship behaviors. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Marketing, School of Business, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong (b) Division of Business Administration, College of Business and Economics, Hanyang University ERICA, South Korea (c) School of Management and Marketing, Faculty of Business and Law, Curtin University, Perth, Australia (d) Arden University, United Kingdom * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 19 June 2021; Revised 8 June 2022; Accepted 12 June 2022 Byline: Kimmy Wa Chan [kimmychan@hkbu.edu.hk] (a), Taeshik Gong [goontz@hanmail.net] (b), Piyush Sharma [piyush.sharma@curtin.edu.au] (c,*), Candace Chu [cchu@arden.ac.uk] (d)

Keywords Wireless networks; Proactive caching; Multipath routing; Energy saving; Integer linear programming; Simulated annealing Abstract The ever-continuing explosive growth of on-demand content distribution has imposed great pressure on mobile/wireless network infrastructures. To ease congestion in the network and to increase perceived user experience, caching of popular content closer to the end-users can play a significant role and as such this issue has received significant attention over the last few years. Additionally, energy saving is treated as a fundamental requirement in the design of next-generation mobile networks. However, there has been little attention to the overlapping area between energy saving and network caching especially when considering multipath routing. To this end, this paper proposes an energy-efficient caching with multipath routing support. The proposed scheme provides a joint anchoring of popular content into a set of potential caching nodes with optimized multipath support whilst ensuring a balance between transmission and caching energy cost. The proposed model also considers different content delivery modes, such as multicast and unicast. Two separated Integer-Linear Programming (ILP) models are formulated for each delivery mode. To tackle the curse of dimensionality we then provide a greedy simulated annealing algorithm, which not only reduces the time complexity but also provides a competitive performance. A wide set of numerical investigations reveal that the proposed scheme reduces the energy consumption up to 75% compared with other widely used caching approaches under the premise of network resource limitation. Sensitivity analysis to different parameters is also meticulously discussed in this paper. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Information Science and Engineering, Shandong Normal University, Changqing District, 250358, Ji'nan, China (b) Center of Telecommunication Research, Department of Engineering, King's College London, Strand, WC2R 2LS, London, UK * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 8 January 2022; Revised 30 July 2022; Accepted 6 August 2022 Byline: Yantong Wang [yantong@sdnu.edu.cn] (a,*), Vasilis Friderikos [vasilis.friderikos@kcl.ac.uk] (b)

Keywords Supply chain management; Multi-channel distribution; Manufacturer encroachment; Systematic literature review; Multi-channel supply chain Highlights * Reviews the literature on the manufacturer's perspective of multi-channel distribution systems. * Develops a conceptual framework for analysing the literature. * Investigates determinant factors of the manufacturer for introducing a direct channel. * Classifies network designs according to different design options for distribution systems. * Explores possible strategies that the manufacturer adopts to alleviate conflicts with its retailers. * Investigates operational decision problems in a multi-channel distribution setting. Abstract To reach more customers, many manufacturers utilize multiple distribution channels consisting of a direct and an indirect sales channel. In particular, the strong growth of internet sales (or e-commerce) has driven companies to redesign their distribution channels to take advantage of the opportunities e-commerce offers. Opening a direct sales channel, however, also leads to managerial challenges. The most significant one is channel conflicts that manufacturers encounter when adding a direct channel to an existing traditional channel. Manufacturers that engage in direct selling may compete with their extant independent retailers. Competition between manufacturers and retailers starts when the former intrude into the market (segment) that was traditionally served by the retailers via manufacturer-owned stores and online sales, which is commonly referred to as manufacturer or supplier encroachment. This paper aims to provide a systematic and exhaustive review of multi-channel distribution systems in a combined forward and reverse supply chain where the manufacturer competes with its independently-owned intermediaries (retailers or wholesalers). First, to organize our discussion, all works obtained during the literature search were classified and evaluated in accordance with a proposed conceptual framework. The paper then discusses the sampled works and evaluates possible research gaps. Finally, based on the analysis of the literature, managerial implications and promising future research directions are proposed. Author Affiliation: Institute of Production and Supply Chain Management, Technical University of Darmstadt, Hochschulstr. 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 26 April 2021; Accepted 3 December 2021 Byline: Nail Tahirov, Christoph H. Glock [glock@bwl.tu-darmstadt.de] (*)

Keywords Data envelopment analysis; Technical efficiency; Properties; Convex optimization; Second-order cone programming Highlights * Certain well-known slacks-based measures are generalized. * The Hölder means are applied in the generalization process. * The new general measure satisfies many standard properties. * In particular, it satisfies the unique projection property for benchmarking. * The computational implementation of the measure is also shown. Abstract The measurement of technical efficiency is a topic of great interest in microeconomics and engineering. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the existing techniques for measuring technical efficiency. One of the challenges related to DEA is to introduce a 'well-defined' efficiency measure. Overall, it means that the technical efficiency measure should satisfy a list of mathematical and economical properties. Regarding this point, an unresolved question in the DEA literature to date, is whether any measure can satisfy both Indication, also called Pareto-efficiency identification, and uniqueness of the projection point generated by the corresponding efficiency optimization model. With this issue in mind, this paper introduces a new family of measures, inspired on the Range-Adjusted Measure (RAM), which satisfy a list of six properties. This family of measures will be called Generalized Range-Adjusted Measure (GRAM). Additionally, we show in this paper how GRAM can be implemented from a computational point of view and we also provide an economical interpretation of its dual program in terms of (shadow) profit maximization. Finally, an empirical example extracted from the literature serves to illustrate the new methodology. Author Affiliation: Center of Operations Research, University Miguel Hernandez of Elche. Avda. de la Universidad, s/n, Elche 03202 Alicante, Spain * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 16 March 2021; Accepted 2 January 2022 Byline: Juan Aparicio [j.aparicio@umh.es], Juan F. Monge [monge@umh.es] (*)

Keywords Location; Leader's problem; Multipurpose shopping; Consumer choice Highlights * A follower's retail store location problem from the literature is extended. * Best locations for a first and a second entrants are determined. * An exact ad-hoc procedure is adapted to solve small instances. * A new bi-level reactive GRASP procedure finds solutions to larger instances. * The effect of leader's foresight in both the market and the customers is estimated. Abstract This paper extends the follower's retail store location problem of Marianov et al. (2018) to include the leader's decisions. The leader locates its stores knowing that a follower will enter the market later offering a different product. Both maximize their markets given that customers can purchase none, one or two non-essential products on the same trip. The paper determines the best locations for a first and a second entrants through exact and approximated procedures. It turns out that, by locating with foresight, a first entrant can increase the total business in an area for himself and subsequent entrants. We solve the binary programming bi-level resulting problem for small instances by adapting an ad-hoc procedure. Furthermore, a new bi-level reactive GRASP procedure finds solutions for instances of up to 100 nodes in under 3,600 s of CPU time. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Engineering Sciences, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile (b) Department of Electrical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería (ISCI), Santiago, Chile (c) Faculty of Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada (d) PhD Program in Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Chile * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 6 May 2021; Accepted 7 January 2022 Byline: Armin Lüer-Villagra [armin.luer@unab.cl] (a,*), Vladimir Marianov (b), H.A. Eiselt (c), Gonzalo Méndez-Vogel (d)

Keywords DDoS attack; Cloud; DEHO; SVM; KPCA; Databases; Data samples; Cyber security Highlights * Proposing SVM based DEHO classifier to detect DDoS attack for the cloud computing environment. * Utilizing KPCA algorithm to obtain optimal features for further detection of normal and attack or malicious data. * Performing experiments for four different databases namely NSL-KDD, UNSW-NB15, ISCX IDand CIC-IDS2017 databases to determine the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Abstract Distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks is rising exponentially and creates a severe threat to security. Generally, the DDoS attack may appear uncomplicated but they are hard to prevent and considered as one of the most significant cybersecurity issues. Hence, addressing against DDoS attacks turns out to be imperative. The major goal of this paper involves the optimal detection of data samples as normal data samples and malicious/attacked data samples. This paper proposes a security algorithm against DDoS attacks by employing four significant phases namely the Database training phase, Data pre-processing phase, Feature selection phase and Classification phase. Initially, the data samples are to be trained before using it for attack detection. Later, the sample group is created for every file and the data samples are pre-processed in the data pre-processing phase. Secondly, in feature selection phase, the selected features are optimized by employing kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) to obtain optimal features. Later, in the classification phase, a support vector machine-based discrete elephant herding optimization (SVM-DEHO) classifier is utilized to detect the data sample as normal data and attacked or malicious data. Finally, the proposed approach is examined for four different databases namely NSL-KDD, UNSW-NB15, ISCX ID and CIC-IDS2017 databases respectively. The experimental analyses are performed for various simulation metrics and the outcome reveals that the detection system performances are high using SVM-DEHO approach than other approaches. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Presidency University, Bengaluru, India (b) School of Computing Science and Engineering, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, India (c) Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Vardhaman College of Engineering, Hyderabad, India * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 12 May 2021; Revised 23 April 2022; Accepted 28 June 2022 Byline: Gowthul Alam MM [gowthulalam2005@gmail.com] (a,*), Jerald Nirmal Kumar S (b), Uma Mageswari R (c), Michael Raj TF (b)

Keywords Mobile crowdsourcing; Privacy protection; Blockchain; Edge computing; Federated learning; Localized Differential Privacy Abstract With the rapid popularization and development of the Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G networks, mobile crowdsourcing (MCS) has become an indispensable part in today's society. However, when task participants submit tasks, they are likely to expose their data privacy and location privacy. These privacy will be maliciously attacked and exploited by attackers (external attackers and untrusted third party). With the rapid increase of MCS data throughput, traditional cloud platforms can no longer meet the huge data processing needs. To solve these problems, this paper proposes an MCS federated learning system based on Blockchain and edge computing. This paper uses federated learning as the framework of the MCS system. The system protects data privacy and location privacy by using the Double local disturbance Localized Differential Privacy (DLD-LDP) proposed in this paper. Because the sensed data exists in multiple modalities (text, video, audio, etc.), this paper uses the Multi-modal Transformer (MulT) method to merge the multi-modal data before subsequent operations. To solve the problem that the third party is untrusted, we utilize Blockchain to distribute tasks and collect models in a distributed way. A reputation calculation method (Sig-RCU) is proposed to calculate the real-time reputation of task participants. Through conducting experiments on real data sets, the effectiveness and adaptation of the proposed DLD-LDP algorithm and Sig-RCU algorithm are verified. Author Affiliation: (a) School of Computer and Control Engineering, Yantai University, 264005, China (b) The Yantai Key Laborary of High-end Ocean Engineering Equipment and Intelligent Technology, Yantai, 264005, China (c) Department of Software Enportraitgineering & Game Development at Kennesaw State University (KSU), 1100 South Marietta Pkwy, Marietta, GA 30060, USA (d) Department of Computer Science, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA * Corresponding author at: School of Computer and Control Engineering, Yantai University, 264005, China. Article History: Received 14 February 2022; Revised 3 July 2022; Accepted 17 July 2022 Byline: Weilong Wang (a,b), Yingjie Wang [wangyingjie@ytu.edu.cn] (a,b,*), Yan Huang [yhuang24@kennesaw.edu] (c), Chunxiao Mu (a,b), Zice Sun (a,b), Xiangrong Tong (a,b), Zhipeng Cai [zcai@gsu.edu] (d)

Keywords Problem structuring methods; System dynamics; System perception; Causal Loop Diagrams; Boundary Critique Highlights * Sustainability challenges require coordinated effort from multiple organisations. * Differences in system boundaries are unavoidable in multi-organisational settings. * Ambiguity in system boundaries could reduce the effectiveness of decisions. * This research compares stakeholders' perceptions of system boundaries. * The comparison uses a novel type of thematic analysis of Causal Loop Diagrams. Abstract Differences in system boundaries and problem framings are unavoidable in multi-organisational decision-making. Unstructured problems, such as the grand challenges, are characterised by the existence of multiple actors with different perspectives and conflicting interests, and they require a coordinated effort from multiple organisations. Within this context, this paper aims to understand stakeholders' perceptions of system boundaries and problem framings, and their potential effects on decision-making by systematically comparing different stakeholder groups' causal maps around the same shared concern. Bridging notions from Operational Research, System Dynamics and Organisational Studies, the comparison is based on a novel type of thematic analysis of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) built with each stakeholder group on their perceptions of a given system. The proposed integrated approach combines qualitative with quantitative analysis, such as the centrality of the variables and the structure of the CLDs. Such CLDs comparison provides an intuitive way to visualise differences and similarities of the thematic clusters of variables, underlining factors influencing the shared concern. This could be considered a starting point for more shared understanding as well as more integrated holistic perceptions of the system and, consequently, a more systemic decision-making. Furthermore, for the sake of replicability, this paper also presents a qualitative participatory System Dynamics modelling process aimed to define the key aspects of a problem for each group of stakeholders to support a collaborative multi-organisational decision-making process. The research is based on the activities carried out for an urban regeneration case study in Thamesmead, London, United Kingdom. Author Affiliation: Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, The Bartlett Faculty of The Built Environment, University College London, UK * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 31 December 2020; Accepted 19 December 2021 Byline: Irene Pluchinotta [i.pluchinotta@ucl.ac.uk] (*), Giuseppe Salvia, Nici Zimmermann

Keywords Transportation; Hazardous material transportation; Routing; Routing-scheduling; Network design; Comprehensive review Highlights * Providing a comprehensive but microscopic review on hazmat transportation problems. * Classifying the papers from an OR viewpoint. * Providing a detailed discussion on the role of transportation modes in hazmat transportation problems. Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive review in the domain of hazardous material transportation from an Operational Research point of view. The paper's focus lies on hazmat routing, routing-scheduling, and network design problems. The objective of this review paper is twofold: (1) reviewing the models' assumptions, objectives and constraints, decisions, input parameters, basic modeling/solution techniques, and case studies, and (2) highlighting the underlying features and challenges in designing the models with different transportation modes. Besides, the most significant research gaps in the literature are identified through a systematic in-depth review at a micro-level. Finally, a set of promising future research directions is proposed upon from the authorities could draw better decisions. As a key finding after performing this review, we believe that a considerable number of promising future research directions consist in hybridizing different problems, i.e., amount to borrowing some key properties from a problem and integrating them into another problem. This has led to valuable research studies in the literature of hazmat transportation problems. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (b) Lab-STICC, UBL, IMT Atlantique, Brest F-29238, France (c) CIRRELT and Département de mathématiques et génie industriel, Polytechnique Montréal, P.O. Box 6079, Station Centre-Ville, Montréal H3C 3A7, Canada (d) Centre of Excellence in Supply Chain and Transportation (CESIT), KEDGE Business School, Bordeaux, France (e) Department of Transportation Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 9 February 2021; Accepted 24 November 2021 Byline: Seyed Sina Mohri (a), Mehrdad Mohammadi [mehrdad.mohammadi@imt-atlantique.fr] (b,*), Michel Gendreau (c), Amir Pirayesh (d), Ali Ghasemaghaei (e), Vahid Salehi (e)

Keywords combinatorial optimization; Assembly line balancing; Multi-manned workstations; Dependent task times, Ad-hoc heuristic; Relax-and-Fix Highlights * A MALBP-1 variant with dependent task times is studied * A heuristic that solves a partition problem with constraints is presented * HEUR_PART gets better results than any other procedure published for this variant * An improved mathematical model is proposed Abstract This paper aims to study a variant of the multi-manned assembly line balancing problem (MALBP), which considers the possibility of multiple workers simultaneously performing different tasks at the same workstation. In most cases it is assumed that task times are deterministic. This paper takes into account possible interferences between workers and deals with the MALBP with task times depending on the number of workers at the station. Different procedures are developed: resolutions on the basis of a mathematical model, two Relax-and-Fix procedures, a heuristic based on solving a partition problem with constraints (named 'HEUR_PART') and a set of other variants of the HEUR_PART procedure. The computational experiments indicate that HEUR_PART and the HEUR_PART_SGL variant are the proposals that perform best. Additionally, we show that they obtain better results than the ones published in the literature. Author Affiliation: Institute of Industrial and Control Engineering (IOC), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Av. Diagonal 647 (Building ETSEIB), 11th floor, Barcelona 08028, Spain * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 12 January 2021; Accepted 1 December 2021 Byline: Enric Andreu-Casas, Alberto García-Villoria [alberto.garcia-villoria@upc.edu] (*), Rafael Pastor [rafael.pastor@upc.edu]

Keywords Game theory; RFID; Inventory inaccuracy; Supply chain management Highlights * This paper examines RFID strategies under horizontal and vertical competition. * The powerful supplier has the incentive and is more inclined to adopt RFID than the follower. * When competition increases, the suppliers are more likely to forgo using RFID. * The equilibrium RFID adoption strategy can bring all members to the Pareto outcome. Abstract Radio frequency identification (RFID) technology has proved to be an effective way to eliminate inventory inaccuracy, which is very prevalent in many industries. Inspired by the case of Wal-Mart facing difficulties when it required its suppliers to adopt RFID, this paper investigates RFID adoption strategies in a decentralized supply chain with two competing suppliers and a dominant retailer facing inventory inaccuracies. The two suppliers first sequentially determine whether to adopt RFID. Then, the supply chain members sequentially set their pricing policies under the wholesale price contract. We characterize the optimal wholesale prices, retail prices, and profits under different RFID adoption strategies and further examine the equilibrium results of RFID adoption. Our findings reveal that when only the powerful supplier uses RFID, the follower's profit first increases and then decreases as the inventory availability rate increases; however, when only the follower supplier adopts RFID, the profit of the powerful supplier that forgoes RFID increases as the inventory availability rate increases. Importantly, inventory inaccuracies and tag costs have substantial effects on the equilibrium RFID adoption strategy under upstream competition. The powerful supplier has the incentive and is more inclined to adopt RFID than the follower. Under intense upstream competition, suppliers are more likely to forgo the use of RFID. The equilibrium RFID adoption strategy can bring all supply chain members to a Pareto optimal outcome when both inventory availability rates are low or one is close to 1 while the other is low. Author Affiliation: Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, 200237, Shanghai, China * Corresponding author at: 130 Meilong Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200237, China. Article History: Received 21 January 2021; Accepted 3 December 2021 Byline: Feng Tao, Liang Wang, Tijun Fan [tjfan@ecust.edu.cn] (*), Hao Yu

Keywords Assignment; Dormitories; Stable matching; Many-to-many matching; Incentive compatibility Highlights * Socio-economic and academic achievements considerations in the assignment process of student-groups to dormitories. * Stable assignment under common preference-lists of dormitories over the student-groups. * Polynomial time algorithm for assigning student-groups to dormitories. * Polynomial time algorithm for listing all the stable assignments. * Incentive compatibility issues in student-groups assignment. Abstract This paper generalizes results of former papers on the assignment of students to dormitories, under an entrance criterion, by allowing students to apply in groups. A group-application means that its applicants ask to be assigned to the same dormitory, and otherwise they prefer living off-campus. The underlying assumption in our model is that the dormitories share a common preference over the student-groups, which is given by a strictly increasing ranking of their credit scores. The definition of a quasi-stable outcome is adjusted in order to incorporate student-group applications, and we prove that such an outcome always exists. Furthermore, a polynomial-time algorithm that finds all the quasi-stable outcomes is proposed. Apparently, not all properties of the single students' model continue to hold under group-applications. Finally, we consider the incentive compatibility property of the proposed algorithm, and describe a specific quasi-stable outcome for which no subset of student-groups can gain by misrepresenting their preferences over the dormitories. Author Affiliation: Coller School of Management, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 18 February 2020; Accepted 30 December 2021 Byline: Nitsan Perach [nitsan.perah@gmail.com] (*), Shoshana Anily [anily@tauex.tau.ac.il]

Keywords Bargaining; Outside option; Commitment; Price skimming; Coase conjecture; Positive selection Abstract This paper studies a bargaining problem in which the buyer's valuation and outside option are private information. We show that there exists a non-stationary equilibrium in which the seller can secure full commitment profit (from the optimal sales mechanism that exhibits price skimming) if and only if the buyer's outside option takes a zero value with positive probability (non-negligibly zero outside option). Our innovation is to show that (i) both the Coasean reversion and positive selection are necessary for the seller to secure the full commitment profit and (ii) the Coasean equilibria may coexist with positive selection despite their claimed incompatibility if the non-negligibly zero outside option exists. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong (b) Department of Mathematical Economics and Finance, Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 30 August 2021; Revised 25 July 2022; Accepted 4 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are deeply grateful to Yeon-Koo Che, Ying Chen, In-Koo Cho, Johannes Hörner, Ilwoo Hwang, M. Ali Khan, Jinwoo Kim, Stephan Lauermann, Frances Xu Lee, Qingmin Liu, Juan Ortner, Larry Samuelson, Yasuhiro Shirata, Andrzej Skrzypacz, and Renkun Yang for their thought-provoking correspondence and discussion. We also thank the participants of various seminars and conferences. This paper has also benefited from the careful reading and constructive comments of the editor and anonymous referees. The work described in this paper was supported by a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CityU 21506616). Byline: Dongkyu Chang [donchang@cityu.edu.hk] (a), Jong Jae Lee [piuslee83@gmail.com] (b,*)

Keywords Corporate cash management; Corporate life cycle; Learning; Singular control Abstract We study a dynamic model of a firm whose shareholders learn about its profitability and, face costs of external financing and costs of holding cash. The shareholders' problem involves a notoriously challenging singular stochastic control problem with a two-dimensional degenerate diffusion process. We solve it by means of an explicit construction of its value function, and derive a corporate life-cycle with two stages: a 'probation stage' where it is never optimal for the firm to issue new shares, and a 'mature stage' where the firm resorts to the market whenever needed. The cash target level is nonmonotonic in the belief about profitability and reaches its highest value on the edge between the two stages. This solution leads to new insights into the firm's volatility and its payout ratio which depend on the firm's stage in its life cycle. Author Affiliation: Toulouse School of Economics, University of Toulouse Capitole (TSM-R), 1, Esplanade de l'Université, 31080 Toulouse Cedex 06, France * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 25 September 2020; Revised 13 July 2022; Accepted 16 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Marzena Rostek (the editor), an associate editor, an anonymous referee for numerous insightful suggestions that greatly improved the paper. We thank the participants at the Conference in Honor of Jean-Charles Rochet, Toulouse, May 2018; the workshop on stopping time problems and game theory in Finance and Economics, Stony Brook, July 2018; the Math. Finance Seminar at the University of Bielefeld, October 2018; and the TSE-P Conference, New Challenges in Insurance, Paris, September 2019. An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title 'Integrating profitability prospects and cash management'. We thank the participants at the EFA conference, Oslo, August 2016; Cambridge corporate finance theory symposium, September 2016 where we presented an earlier version. The authors gratefully thank the 'Chaire Marché des risques et création de valeurs, fondation du risque/Scor'. This research benefited from the support of the 'FMJH Program Gaspard Monge in optimization and operation research' and from the support provided to this program by EDF. The authors acknowledge funding from ANR under grant ANR-17-EUR-0010 (Investissements d'Avenir program). Byline: Jean-Paul Décamps [jean-paul.decamps@tse-fr.eu], Stéphane Villeneuve [stephane.villeneuve@tse-fr.eu] (*)

Keywords Testing theories; Risk aversion; Nash equilibrium; Quantal response equilibria; Level k theory; Cognitive hierarchy theory Abstract We collected data on one-shot play for a representative selection of two-player two- and three-strategy games with unique and completely mixed strategy predictions and propose a new method to compare theories of one-shot play 'out of treatment' that allows a direct likelihood comparison: Competing theories are calibrated with pre-existing data using different games and subjects. Most theories in most treatments have predictive power. No theory is uniformly best. Considering risk aversion significantly improves predictive power. Nash equilibrium with risk aversion is among the best predictors of play in four of six treatment groups: the exceptions are the behavior of individuals in the asymmetric own-payoff player positions in games of a matching pennies and rock-scissors-paper variety. Author Affiliation: (a) Vienna Center for Experimental Economics, University of Vienna, Austria (b) Department of Economics, University of Graz, Austria * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 5 August 2020; Revised 17 December 2021; Accepted 14 September 2022 (footnote)[white star] Philipp is grateful for the hospitality of the economics department and the DR@W lab at the University of Warwick. Christoph is grateful to the economic theory group at CalTech for providing an inspiring setting to work on this paper in the winter and spring terms of 2018. We are grateful to Luciano Andreozzi, Ulrich Berger, Drew Fudenberg, Michael Greinecker, Christian Koch, Kevin Leyton-Brown, Annie Liang, Felix Mauersberger, Wieland Müller, Tom Palfrey, Karl Schlag, and Daniel Sgroi as well as seminar audiences at Paderborn, Bielefeld, Innsbruck, Keio, and Vienna for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank James Wright for providing us with the many parameter estimates and Hans Manner for pointing out and explaining the Vuong test to us. We are especially grateful for the many great comments by the editor, Marciano Sinischalchi, and two anonymous referees that have substantially improved our paper. We acknowledge support received through a grant from the German Research Foundation (DFG, grant number: KU 3071/1) as well as the financial support by the University of Graz. Byline: Philipp Külpmann [philipp.kuelpmann@univie.ac.at] (a,*), Christoph Kuzmics [christoph.kuzmics@uni-graz.at] (b)

Keywords Loss aversion; Dutch auctions; Revenue equivalence; Personal equilibrium Abstract We study Dutch and first-price auctions with expectations-based loss-averse bidders and show that the strategic equivalence between these formats no longer holds. Intuitively, as the Dutch auction unfolds, a bidder becomes more optimistic about her chances of winning; this stronger 'attachment' effect pushes her to bid more aggressively than in the first-price auction. Thus, Dutch auctions raise more revenue than first-price ones. Indeed, the Dutch auction raises the most revenue among standard auction formats. Our results imply that dynamic mechanisms that make bidders more optimistic raise more revenue, thereby rationalizing the use of descending-price mechanisms by sellers in the field. Author Affiliation: (a) UTS Business School, Australia (b) University of Queensland, Australia (c) Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF, Italy (d) University of Bonn, Germany * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 29 June 2021; Revised 21 February 2022; Accepted 30 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to the editor (Marzena Rostek) and two anonymous referees for several suggestions that vastly improved the paper. For helpful comments, we also thank Jeff Ely, Akifumi Ishihara, Michihiro Kandori, Botond Koszegi, Simon Loertscher, Marco Pagnozzi, Daisuke Nakajima and audiences at the 2019 Sydney Workshop on Experimental Economics and Theory, the 2019 Organizational Economics Summer Symposium in Sydney, University of Tokyo, Queensland University of Technology, University of Technology Sydney, University of Queensland, University of Sydney, the Berlin Theory Colloquium, University of Amsterdam, University of Mannheim, the 2020 Australasian Economic Theory Workshop in Adelaide, the 2020 EEA virtual congress and the 2021 virtual Hitotsubashi Summer Institute. Rosato gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Australian Research Council (ARC) through the ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE180100190. von Wangenheim gratefully acknowledges funding by the German Research Foundation (DFG) through CRC TR 224 (Project B03). The first two authors also thank the 'healthy' Café in Manly for its great hospitality while some of the work on this paper was completed. Byline: Benjamin Balzer (a), Antonio Rosato [a.rosato@uq.edu.au] (b,c,*), Jonas von Wangenheim (d)

Keywords Behavioral inequality; Human capital investment; Behavioral bias; Intergenerational mobility Highlights * Socio-economic (job and education) background shapes perceived efficacy. * Agents underestimate the probability of intergenerational mobility. * We build a theoretical model to capture macroeconomic implications of such beliefs. * Biases may influence under confident parents to over invest in education. * The biases may lower income inequality. Abstract This paper introduces perceived self-efficacy beliefs in an overlapping generations model and studies the effects of behavioral anomalies on human capital investments and aggregate inequality. These beliefs are not inherent but based on a person's socio-economic background. Ex ante children are homogeneous, but parents are biased about the returns to their children's education. Based on parental education and job status, parents may be over or under confident but otherwise, they are rational. We witness spillover effects that shift the incentives to educate children from the pessimistic parents to unbiased parents. Biases may induce or hinder investment. Over investment by one parent type may even crowd-out investments of other parent types. We find interesting effects of biases on the aggregate economy when parental warm glow is not low. Author Affiliation: (a) Jindal Global Business School, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonepat, Haryana 131029, India (b) Ashoka University, Plot 2 Rajiv Gandhi Education City, Sonepat, Haryana 131029, India * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 26 December 2020; Revised 30 July 2022; Accepted 1 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] An earlier version of this paper was titled 'The Glasses are Tinted: Self-Confidence and Poverty Trap'. We acknowledge useful comments from an anonymous referee, Mausumi Das, Sayantan Ghosal, Parikshit Ghosh, Ajit Mishra, Dilip Mookherjee, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Tridip Ray, Prabal Roy Chowdhury, Sudipta Sarangi, and Arunava Sen and participants of Delhi Theory Workshop at Indian Statistical Institute and seminar participants at Delhi School of Economics and Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi. Dyotona Dasgupta acknowledges postdoctoral fellowship funding jointly provided by the Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics and the Institute of Economic Growth during 2019-20. All errors are our own. Byline: Dyotona Dasgupta [dasgupta.dyotona@gmail.com] (*,a), Anuradha Saha [anuradha.saha@ashoka.edu.in] (b)

Keywords Electoral cycles; Political selection; Voting; Macroeconomic forecasting Abstract This paper documents the existence of electoral cycles in GDP growth forecasts released by governments. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are rational and from manipulation of voters' beliefs if they do not expect the incumbent to be biased. Using high-frequency forecaster-level data from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden, we document that governments overestimate short-term real GDP growth by 0.1--0.3 percentage points. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics and Finance, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies, Uppsala University, CESifo, CIFREL, Largo A. Gemelli 1, Milan 20123, Italy (b) Payments Department, Sveriges Riksbank and Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies, Uppsala University, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm SE-103 37, Sweden * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 7 September 2021; Revised 18 July 2022; Accepted 11 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We would like to thank the editor Daniela Puzzello, an anonymous associate editor, and an anonymous referee as well as Eva Mörk and Mikael Carlsson for extensive feedback. We would also like to thank Enghin Atalay, Alessandra Bonfiglioli, David Cesarini, Matz Dahlberg, Sirus Dehdari, Mikael Elinder, Peter Fredriksson, Nils Gottfries, Georg Graetz, Christoph Hedtrich, Sebastian Jävervall, Mathias Klein, Jesper Lindé, Torben Mideksa, Gisle Natvik, Oskar Nordström Skans, Sven Oskarsson, Vincent Pons, Luca Repetto, Olli Ropponen, Johanna Rickne, Uta Schönberg, Anna Seim, Anna Thoresson, Janne Tukiainen, Erik Öberg, and the participants at seminars held at Uppsala University, Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies (UCFS), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, the 76 th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF), the 35 th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (EEA), and the 33 rd Annual Congress of the Italian Society of Public Economics (SIEP) for their dialogues and comments. Financial support from Handelsbankens Forskningsstiftelser is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of Sveriges Riksbank. Byline: Davide Cipullo [davide.cipullo@unicatt.it] (*,a), André Reslow [andre.reslow@riksbank.se] (b)

Keywords Agenda setting; Media; Kidnapping; Terrorism; FARC Abstract This paper suggests news coverage of a proposed prisoner exchange program (the Acuerdo Humanitario/AH) systematically affected FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) operations in the early 2000s. We propose AH news raised the value of political kidnappees through an agenda-setting-type mechanism. Our identification strategy draws on disaster deaths in countries favored by Colombian emigrants as an instrumental variable for AH news. Findings suggest AH coverage increased the number of political kidnappings, while decreasing the number of financial kidnappings. Overall, a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation implies AH news de-escalated the conflict in the short run. Author Affiliation: (a) University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, WA Australia (b) University of Western Australia, Centre for Business Data Analytics (UWA), IZA (Bonn), and CESifo (Munich), 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, WA Australia * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 20 November 2021; Revised 25 July 2022; Accepted 28 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] We are grateful to Camilo Jaramillo and Sebastian Sierra for excellent research assistance. We thank the editor Scott Adams and two anonymous referees for valuable comments that have greatly helped us to improve the paper. We are greatly indebted to Tushar Bharati, Marcel Garz, Christopher Parsons, and Francisco Pitthan for excellent conversations and comments. Seminar participants at the Universidad EAFIT, the University of Western Australia, the Applied Young Economist Webinar at Monash University, and the Bolivian Conference on Development Economics provided helpful comments and discussions. Juan P. Aparicio is thankful to the Australian Government and the University of Western Australia for funding from the Research Training Program (RTP) scholarship. Byline: Juan P. Aparicio [juposada93@gmail.com] (*,a), Michael Jetter [mjetter7@gmail.com] (b)

Keywords Information; Biased beliefs; Career preferences; Science; Higher education Abstract We investigate whether biased beliefs play a role in the persistent demand for postdoctoral training in science. We elicit the beliefs and career preferences of doctoral students at 56 U.S. chemistry departments through a survey combined with a field experiment, in which we randomize the provision of information to a subset of respondents on historical academic placements by department. We first show that respondents have excessively optimistic beliefs about their own and their peers' chances of obtaining a tenure track faculty position. Respondents who received the historical placement information treatment updated their beliefs about their own likelihood of obtaining a faculty position in a follow-up survey one year later, particularly those who had the most biased initial beliefs. However, we do not find an effect on the likelihood of doing a post-doc at four years post-intervention. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, United States (b) School of Economics, University of Bristol, United Kingdom (c) CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Science, Czech Republic * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 7 February 2022; Revised 2 July 2022; Accepted 21 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] We thank Sandro Ambuehl, Michal Bauer, Albert Bravo Biosca, Donna Ginther, Stepan Jurajda, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, Nikolas Mittag, Henry Sauermann, Paula Stephan, Hubert Wu, Basit Zafar and conference participants at the NBER Summer Institute, CERGE-EI, Max Planck Institute, the IGL Winter Research meeting, the Swiss Economists Abroad Association, CUNY Queens, and the University of Connecticut for helpful comments. We appreciate research assistance from Samantha Blaney. Gaulé and Vuletic Cugalj acknowledge financial support from the Czech Science Foundation (GACR grant no 16-05082S). Ganguli acknowledges support from the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. This study has been approved by the University of Massachusetts Amherst IRB and was pre-registered in the AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0003212). This paper uses confidential survey data collected by the authors, which they are unable to publicly share. The authors will provide an anonymized dataset and code to assist interested researchers with replication of the tables and figures in the paper. Byline: Ina Ganguli (a), Patrick Gaulé [pgaule@cerge-ei.cz] (b,*), Danijela Vuletic Cugalj (c)

Keywords Infrastructure; Firms; India; Microenterprises; Regression Discontinuity Design Highlights * We study the effects of a rural infrastructure maintenance and improvement scheme. * We find an increase in overall village-level employment and number of microenterprises. * There was a decline in the share of agricultural workers and a corresponding increase in the share of non-agricultural workers. * Wages, number of days worked, and monthly household consumption expenditure increased. * Rural electrification and connectivity were important mechanisms driving the results. Abstract We evaluate the impact of a rural infrastructure development and maintenance scheme, directed towards India's most 'backward' districts. Importantly, these infrastructure grants were spent on maintenance, improvements, and complementary investments to existing infrastructure. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design and multiple data sets covering the entire firm size distribution, as well as household employment surveys, we show evidence on the effectiveness of the program on local economic activity. In treated districts, the policy appears to have increased overall village-level employment, and the number of microenterprises, but there were no changes for formal firms. These increases were likely driven by a decline in the share of agricultural wage workers. At the individual-level, wages and the number of days worked also increased. There is suggestive evidence that both rural electrification and connectivity were important mechanisms driving our results. We find stronger impacts in electricity and road-intensive industries, and in villages that had paved roads and electricity prior to the program. Overall, our paper suggests that improving rural infrastructure conditions can boost economic activity, especially by stimulating microenterprises. Author Affiliation: (a) Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies and IZA, United States (b) The World Bank, United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 9 May 2021; Revised 27 May 2022; Accepted 2 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We would like to thank Ama Baafra Abeberese, Sam Asher, Siddharth Hari, Gaurav Khanna, Amit Khandelwal, Solomon Polachek, Martin Rotemberg, David Slichter, Eric Verhoogen, Susan Wolcott, and participants at the Young Economists Symposium (Yale 2017), Northeastern Association of Business, Economics & Technology (Penn State 2017), ACEGD ISI (New Delhi 2018), Eastern Economic Association (Boston 2018), George Mason Schar School of Policy and Government, EPED (Montreal 2018), Ce2 workshop (Warsaw 2019), UNU-WIDER Development Conference (2019), Florida International University, and Georgetown University for helpful comments. This paper subsumes earlier versions, 'Infrastructure Grants and the Performance of Microenterprises,' as well as 'Rural Infrastructure Development and Economic Activity.' All remaining errors are our own. Byline: Ritam Chaurey [rchaurey@jhu.edu] (a,*), Duong Trung Le [dle6@worldbank.org] (b)

Keywords Progressive taxation; Growth models; Inequality; Heterogeneous agents Abstract This paper examines the sensitivity of the growth-inequality tradeoff to the progressivity of the tax structure. Using an endogenous growth model calibrated to approximate the US tax structure, we simulate a 5% reduction in the economy-wide average tax rate attained by alternative combinations of a reduction in the base tax rate and an increase in progressivity. In all cases the dynamic responses across income classes are diverse. With fixed progressivity the tax benefits favor the poorer quintiles, but the richest quintile is the only group that increases its relative share of capital and income. The net long-run effect is a mild increase in the overall growth rate, accompanied by a substantial increase in inequality. Restructuring the tax cut by allowing a larger reduction in the base tax rate coupled with a large increase in progressivity, designed to maintain the tax burden on the richest quintile unchanged, the exact opposite responses emerge; growth and inequality both decline. By judicious choice of the crucial fiscal parameters, the tax cut can be structured so that the growth rate increases while inequality simultaneously declines. The required structural changes are small, highlighting the extreme sensitivity of the tradeoff to the degree of tax progressivity. Author Affiliation: (a) Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Brazil (b) University of Washington (UW), United States * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 30 March 2022; Revised 2 August 2022; Accepted 14 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] We gratefully acknowledge the constructive comments of two anonymous referees, the Associate Editor, and the Co-Editor B. Ravikumar. We also thank participants of the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society hosted by Universidad del Rosario in Colombia in October 2021, of the 42nd meeting of Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria held in December 2020, of the Association of Public Economic Theory Meeting, held in Marseille in June 2022, and of the North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, held in Miami in June 2022, for their comments on earlier versions of this paper. Fernando Carneiro acknowledges that this study was financed in part by a scholarship for doctoral studies abroad granted by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior -- Brasil (CAPES) of the Government of Brazil, and thanks the support provided by University of Washington during the period of his PhD visiting internship. Stephen Turnovsky acknowledges support from the Van Voorhis endowment at the University of Washington. Byline: Fernando Moraes Carneiro (a), Stephen J. Turnovsky [sturn@u.washington.edu] (b,*), Octavio Augusto Fontes Tourinho (a)

Keywords Occasionally binding constraints; Effective lower bound; Computational methods Abstract Structural estimation of macroeconomic models and new HANK-type models with extremely high dimensionality require fast and robust methods to efficiently deal with occasionally binding constraints (OBCs). This paper proposes a novel algorithm that solves for the perfect foresight path of piecewise-linear dynamic models. In terms of computation speed, the method outperforms its competitors by more than three orders of magnitude. I develop a closed-form solution for the full trajectory given the expected duration of the constraint. This allows to quickly iterate and validate guesses on the expected duration until a perfect-foresight equilibrium is found. A toolbox, featuring an efficient implementation, a model parser and various econometric tools, is provided in the Python programming language. Benchmarking results show that for medium-scale models with an occasionally binding interest rate lower bound, more than 150,000 periods can be simulated per second. Even simulating large HANK-type models with almost 1000 endogenous variables requires only 0.2 milliseconds per period. Author Affiliation: Institute for Macroeconomics and Econometrics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24--42, Bonn 53113, Germany Article History: Received 31 January 2022; Revised 6 July 2022; Accepted 6 September 2022 (footnote)[white star] I am grateful to Flora Budianto, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, Alexander Meyer-Gohde, Tom Holden, Kenneth Judd, Alexander Richter, Felix Strobel, two anonymous reviewers and participants of the 2018 Stanford MMCI Conference, the 2018 EEA Annual Congress and the 2018 VfS Jahrestagung for discussions and helpful comments on the contents of this paper. Part of the research leading to the results in this paper has received financial support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under the grant agreement G-2016-7176 for the Macroeconomic Model Comparison Initiative (MMCI) at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability. I gratefully acknowledge financial support by the DFG under CRC-TR 224 (projects C01 and C05) and under project number 441540692. Byline: Gregor Boehl [gboehl@uni-bonn.de]

Keywords Multiple credit constraints; Nonlinear estimation of DSGE models; State-dependent credit origination Abstract I explore the implications of borrowers facing both loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-service-to-income (DTI) limits, using an estimated DSGE model. I identify when each constraint dominated over the period 1985-2021: The LTV constraint initially dominates, due to loose DTI standards, as well as low house prices around recessions. From 2012, tighter DTI standards and growing house prices have kept the DTI constraint binding. Whether a constraint binds shapes macroeconomic outcomes and the effectiveness of macroprudential tools. Finally, county panel data attest to multiple credit constraints as a source of nonlinear dynamics. Author Affiliation: Economics and Monetary Policy, Danmarks Nationalbank, Langelinie Allé 47, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 2 December 2021; Revised 31 May 2022; Accepted 1 August 2022 (footnote)[white star] I am grateful to my thesis advisors, Emiliano Santoro and Søren Hove Ravn, for their guidance and support. I would moreover like to thank Martín Gonzalez-Eiras, Daniel Greenwald, Vincent Sterk, and Roman Sustek for their detailed and constructive reports on the paper, written with regard to my thesis defense and publication in Norges Bank's working paper series. The paper has benefited from conversations with David Arseneau, Jens H.E. Christensen, Thomas Drechsel, Jeppe Druedahl, Francesco Furlanetto, Paolo Gelain, Luca Guerrieri, Wouter den Haan, Matteo Iacoviello, Søren Leth-Petersen, Enrique Mendoza, Johannes Poeschl, Antonio Sanchez, Alessia De Stefani, Javier Suarez, Peter Norman Sørensen, Egon Zakrajsek, among many others, discussions by Simon Christiansen, Josef Hollmayr, Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen, Galo Nuño, and Michael O'Grady, and comments by seminar audiences and two referees. The views expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect the views of Danmarks Nationalbank. Declarations of interest: none. First version: December 2017. Byline: Marcus Mølbak Ingholt (*)

Keywords Predictive inference; State space models; Stochastic volatility; Time-varying parameters Abstract This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regressions (QRs) featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and develop an efficient sampling algorithm. Regularization of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via dynamic shrinkage priors. The merits of the proposed approach are illustrated in a simulation study, and a simple version of TVP-QR based on an unobserved components model is applied to dynamically trace the quantiles of inflation in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area. In an out-of-sample forecast exercise, I find the proposed model to be competitive and perform particularly well for higher-order and tail forecasts. A detailed analysis of the resulting predictive distributions reveals that they are sometimes skewed and occasionally feature heavy tails. Author Affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Salzburg, Mönchsberg 2a, 5020 Salzburg, Austria Article History: Received 13 April 2022; Revised 31 May 2022; Accepted 8 July 2022 (footnote)[white star] This paper was previously circulated as 'Tail forecasts of inflation using time-varying parameter quantile regressions' (arXiv:2103.03632). I gratefully acknowledge valuable comments and suggestions by Niko Hauzenberger, Paul Hofmarcher, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, James Mitchell, Christoph Pfarrhofer and Anna Stelzer, and financial support by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF, grant no. ZK 35). Codes and replication files are available at github.com/mpfarrho/tvp-qr. Byline: Michael Pfarrhofer [michael.pfarrhofer@plus.ac.at]

Keywords Markov chain approximation; Dynamic programming; Numerical methods; Financial frictions Abstract In this paper we explore some benefits of using the finite-state Markov chain approximation (MCA) method of Kushner and Dupuis (2001) to solve continuous-time optimal control problems in economics. We first show that the implicit finite-difference scheme of Achdou et al. (2022) amounts to a limiting form of the MCA method for a certain choice of approximating chains and policy function iteration for the resulting system of equations. We then illustrate that relative to the implicit finite-difference approach, using variations of modified policy function iteration to solve income fluctuation problems both with and without discrete choices can lead to an increase in the speed of convergence of more than an order of magnitude. Finally, we provide several consistent chain constructions for stationary portfolio problems with correlated state variables, and illustrate the flexibility of the MCA approach by using it to construct and compare two simple solution methods for a general equilibrium model with financial frictions. Author Affiliation: (a) Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, United States (b) Ryerson University, Canada * Corresponding author. Article History: Received 11 February 2021; Revised 25 April 2022; Accepted 13 May 2022 (footnote)[white star] The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System. We appreciate comments from Ben Craig, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron, Ben Moll, Sergio Ocampo, Guillaume Sublet and seminar participants at various conferences and universities. All remaining errors are our own. Replication materials may be found at https://github.com/tphelanECON/EslamiPhelan_MCA. Byline: Thomas Phelan (*,a), Keyvan Eslami (b)