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This study addresses the imperative transition towards renewable energy for the powering of desalination technologies, focusing particularly on island contexts. The Canary Archipelago serves as a unique wind energy-desalination laboratory, with numerous experimental projects conducted since the late 1980s. The lessons learnt that are identified in this paper highlight the critical factors influencing project success or failure, including the modernization of desalination plants, the optimal selection of wind farm sites and turbine technology, adequate resources for operating and maintenance tasks, and optimal battery sizing to minimize system shutdowns. In this context, reverse osmosis emerges as the most advantageous technology for variable operating conditions. System interfaces between wind turbines and desalination units are also discussed and it is identified that further research is needed for mechanical or hydrostatic interface systems, while electrical interface systems suit low-medium water demand areas. Recommendations are given for system design and maintenance with the aim of providing valuable information for other island communities grappling with the water-energy nexus and climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities face twin challenges of changing climate and urban heat island (UHI) effect, with the environmental implications of urbanization still unclear. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to examine the impacts of urbanization in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) during warm and cold seasons in past (2000) and near-future (2030) scenarios [i.e., under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP): SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85]. Datasets from the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) were incorporated into the WRF model to improve the representation of urbanization effects on weather patterns. Our findings indicate that urban expansion significantly increases urban temperatures and decreases wind speed across selected climate change scenarios. The spatially averaged urban temperatures in the fine resolution domain for 2030 could rise by 0.9 °C (warm season) and 2.4 °C (cold season), respectively, and urban wind speed decreases by ∼ 3 m/s under the SSP5-85 scenario. In cold season, the UHI effect could last over 20 h, while urban area may experience cooler nighttime temperatures than rural areas in warm season. Moreover, the future scenario predicts higher daytime O 3 levels due to the warming effects of climate change and urbanization, but lower nighttime levels in warm season, attributed to intensified south-easterly sea breeze and background winds, when compared to the past scenario. This study highlights the importance of incorporating urbanization and climate change in future urban atmospheric environment studies, and underscores that urban climate change adaptation and mitigation should consider extra impacts on built-environment caused by urbanization. • Climate change and urbanization impacts on meteorological and O 3 fields were explored in GBA. • Urbanization and climate change are expected to raised temperatures by 0.9 °C in warm season over the study area. • Urbanization and climate change are expected to raised temperatures by 2.4 °C in cold season over the study area. • Urbanization is expected to reduce wind speed by 3 m/s and intensify sea breeze penetration over the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union (EU) has consistently held a prominent global position in climate governance. This paper compiles 152 climate neutrality policies issued by the European Commission (EU Commission) and employs a systematic analytical framework including "Vertical Policy Hierarchy - Horizontal Policy Path – Systematic Policy instruments" to conduct an in-depth analysis of the EU's climate neutrality policy system. This study produces several findings as follows: First, the EU's climate neutrality policy hierarchy is characterized by a structure comprising "Long-Term Planning – Specific Measures - Financial Support". Second, the EU's policy formulation process for climate neutrality emphasizes the integration of a multi-party engagement mechanism involving "Nongovernmental Level - Regional Level - National Level - Transnational Level - Supranational Level", while extensively employing a "framework-content" policy-making methodology. Third, the EU's climate neutrality governance is guided by the dual objectives of achieving a "Cleaner Energy Structure" and "Recover Ecological Environment" pursuing a broad-ranging and multi-tiered policy pathway towards climate neutrality. Fourth, the EU leverages a combined approach of mandatory measures and guiding policies to propel the climate neutrality governance process, aspiring to achieve breakthroughs in new energy technology innovation through climate neutrality governance, thereby solidifying its international standing. Moreover, this study provides an outlook on the future of the EU's climate neutrality policy governance, positing that the EU's emphasis on climate neutrality governance will remain undiminished, with a heightened focus on guiding policies and an emphasis on the roles of enterprises and the public in advancing the realization of climate neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity demand is a crucial factor in energy system planning. Understanding future electricity demand is vital for developing effective energy and climate policies, as well as establishing a resilient and sustainable energy system. In light of these considerations, the escalating challenges posed by climate change are anticipated to have a substantial impact on electricity demand. This study, therefore, provides a comprehensive analysis delving into the dynamic nature of Temperature Response Functions (TRFs) of electricity demand across Europe. By examining various factors influencing electricity demand in residential buildings, such as thermal insulation, heating electrification, space cooling, and passive cooling, we aim to understand their collective impact on shaping future Temperature Response Functions. To project electricity demand, our study incorporates these factors into our scenario assumptions. Through a comprehensive investigation of these scenarios, our findings reveal distinctive regional influences of these factors. In regions where heating demand prevails, an initial increase in electricity demand is anticipated due to increased electrification rates. However, improved building thermal insulation is expected to substantially reduce winter electricity demand in the long run. Conversely, in regions with pronounced cooling demand, a notable escalation in electricity demand is foreseen due to increased space cooling penetration rate. Nevertheless, the application of effective passive cooling measurements is expected to mitigate and markedly diminish this increase. By highlighting the differential influences of these factors on electricity demand across Europe, our findings can offer valuable insights and guidelines first for energy system modelers for considering the change in Temperature Response Functions and second for policymakers to develop effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. • Examination of the dynamic characteristics of Temperature Response Functions (TRFs). • Space and passive cooling, electric heating, insulation effects on electricity demand. • Projection of TRFs and electricity demand for 36 European countries until 2100. • Thermal insulation and passive cooling are essential for reducing electricity demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy and market incentives are rapidly expanding to promote soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in global croplands. Evidence suggests that long-term increases in SOC can influence both crop yield and nitrogen (N) fertilizer requirements, with the potential to help address two important sustainability challenges. However, increases in SOC may also trigger higher soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, which would represent an important tradeoff for climate change mitigation. We tested the hypothesis that long-term increases in SOC are associated with higher crop yields and fertilizer N use efficiency (NUE), but at the cost of higher N 2 O emissions. Wheat was grown in two soils (SOC low and SOC high) under three N fertilizer rates (0, 100, and 200 kg N ha−1) in a mesocosm experiment. Soils were obtained (0–25 cm) from a 22-yr field experiment on no-till and cover cropping in California. Results indicate that total biomass and grain yield were higher for SOC low than SOC high at 100 kg N ha−1 but not the other N levels. Crop N uptake was also 28% greater for SOC low at 200 kg N ha−1, resulting in higher overall NUE. Soil N 2 O emissions increased for SOC high by 25–112% compared to SOC low , likely due to long-term changes in labile C and N pools, microbial activity, and soil structure influencing porosity and gas diffusion. While there are well-documented crop and environmental benefits from enhancing SOC in agricultural soils, results from this study suggest that changes in soil N 2 O emissions should be considered to accurately determine net GHG emission reductions. • Soil N 2 O emissions increased 25–112% with long-term soil carbon sequestration • Crop yields were not higher with increased SOC • Crop nitrogen uptake and nitrogen use efficiency decreased with increased SOC • Elevated N 2 O emissions presented a tradeoff for net GHG emission reductions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Localized socioeconomic and natural narratives are applied on the regional scale. • Propose ecological zoning management in mountainous agglomerations. • POP, GDP, DEM, and Slope have an inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon storage. • Urbanization expands into the western mountainous under the localized SSP5–8.5 narrative. Ecological carbon storage is critical to climate change mitigation by absorbing CO 2 from the atmosphere. Mountainous ecosystems, crucial carbon reservoirs, are experiencing persistent carbon storage declines, yet management mechanisms targeting such complex terrains remain challenging. Focusing on the Sichuan-Chongqing urban agglomeration, interwoven as mountains and basins, we employed the MPI-coupled (Improved Markov-PLUS-InVEST) model and localized "socio-economic-climatic" narratives to simulate the dynamic evolution of carbon storage over extended periods. Diverse impacts and gradient effects of social, economic, and natural (incl. terrain, climate) drivers on carbon storage are further examined. The findings revealed that: (1) The most carbon storage growth projected from 2030 to 2060 reaches 1.53 %, but of which localized SSP5–8.5 narrative the urbanization encroached upon the undeveloped mountainous, severely impairing carbon sequestration by 81.5Tg. (2) In addition to landscape types, carbon storage exhibits complex spatial responses to economic development, population size, and terrain with an inverted U-shaped relationship. The proposed methodology offers more accurate carbon storage estimates and assists policy-makers in similar terrains to effectively manage the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage. This study facilitates the implementation of tailored ecological conservation through urban zoning, thus contributing to enhanced subregional climate change mitigation efforts globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon tax is a policy instrument that facilitate the phase-out of coal as a chemical feedstock and help China achieve an early carbon peak. However, the policy design is challenged by the complex dynamics of global warming potentials (GWP) from upstream methane emissions, which have a short atmospheric lifetime but a high climate impact. In this study, we compared the life-cycle GWP of two propylene production routes in China: Coal-to-Olefin (CTO) and Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH). We also conducted a cost-profit analysis that incorporates the carbon tax, considering uncertainties in the dynamic radiative forcing of methane. We derived a range of optimal carbon tax rates that can enhance the economic competitiveness of low-carbon propylene routes PDH and discourage the expansion of coal-fed CTO propylene routes. Results show that, for the propylene sector in China, the carbon tax rate should be between 86 and 600 Chinese Yuan (CNY) or 12–84 US dollars (USD) per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which corresponds to 1–10% of the typical propylene price in the Chinese market. Our study provides spatiotemporal insights into the carbon tax for China's propylene sector to decarbonize and control upstream methane emissions. Since propylene is one of the key raw materials for chemical (e.g., plastic) productions, our analysis contributes to the climate benefits of global chemical trade. • Carbon tax contributes to controlling upstream methane emissions from coal-based chemical production. • Time-horizon is crucial for taxing carbon, especially as short-lived greenhouse gas emissions affect propylene producers' profits. • Carbon tax is necessary at provincial scale since the intensity of methane emissions from coal and propane feedstock supply chains vary regionally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate and compare two integrated processes (Plant A and B) for hydrocarbon production from CO 2. They involve proton exchange membrane water electrolysis for H 2 production, reverse water-gas shift reaction for syngas production, pressure swing adsorption for syngas purification, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for diesel-range hydrocarbons from CO 2 , and atmospheric distillation for product separation. Plant B additionally integrates a hydrocracking-based upgrading section. The simulations were performed using Aspen Plus® v10, Aspen Adsorption® v10, and Aspen Custom Modeler® v10. The evaluation covers technical, economic, environmental, and multi-criteria assessment (GREENSCOPE). The proposed processes demonstrate the potential to convert CO 2 to hydrocarbons, with carbon conversion rates of 75% and 71% for Plants A and B, respectively. Process energy intensity is 155 and 170 MJ/kg LP for Plants A and B, respectively. Environmental assessment reveals CO 2 reduction, resulting in negative global warming potentials of −2.20 and −0.84 kgCO 2-eq /kg LP for Plants A and B, respectively. The sustainability degree indices for Plants A and B are 1.00 and 0.06, respectively, indicating Plant A as the more sustainable process alternative based on both quantitative and qualitative metrics. Economic analysis shows project unviability in the Brazilian context due to reliance on H 2 production and prevailing pricing conditions. Economic viability requires a price increase of liquid products by 266% and 302% or CO 2-eq abatement costs ranging from 2.05 to 3.43 US$/kgCO 2-eq for Plants A and B, respectively. GREENSCOPE methodology indicates better performance for Plant A across all scores, highlighting a clear connection between the hydrocracking unit and performance indicators. The findings show that these processes align with sustainable development goals (SDGs) targets for climate action (SDG 13), clean energy (SDG 7), industry, innovation, and infrastructure (SDG 9), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), and responsible consumption and production (SDG 12). Overall, the research moves forward SDGs by offering solutions to cut carbon emissions and promote sustainable industrial practices. [Display omitted] • The overall carbon conversion achieved 71–75%. • The global warming potential is about −2.20 to −0.84 kg CO2-eq /kg LP. • The net present value is about −1066 to −1147 MMUS$. • An increase of 266–302% in liquid product prices is required for economic viability. • A CO 2-eq abatement cost of 2.05–3.43 US$/kg is required for economic viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Cerrado (Savanna biome) showed higher SOC in croplands compared to native vegetation. • Up to 38% of 1 m depth SOC stocks in the Cerrado biome are in shallow layers. • Random Forest predicted ≈65% of SOC variation for croplands and ≈56% for native vegetation. • Clay, precipitation, NPP and temperature are key predictors for SOC stocks. • The models predicted SOC variation better in deeper layers in native vegetation. Soils are the third largest carbon pool on Earth and play a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Therefore, understanding and predicting soil carbon sequestration is of major interest to mitigate climate change globally, especially in countries with strong agricultural backgrounds. In this study, we used a new database composed of 5029 samples collected up to 1-meter depth in three biomes that are most representative of agriculture, Pampas (Prairie), Cerrados (Savanna), and Atlantic Forest (Forest), to explore soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and its environmental drivers. The Cerrado (Savanna) biome was the only one where croplands presented higher SOC stocks than native vegetation (Native vegetation 121.23 Mg/ha and croplands 127.85 Mg/ha or 5 % higher). From the tested models, the Random Forest outperformed the others, achieving an R2 of 0.64 for croplands and 0.56 for native vegetation. The accuracy of the models varied with soil depth, showing better predictions in shallow layers for croplands and deeper layers for native vegetation. Our results highlight the importance of clay content, precipitation, net primary production (NPP), and temperature as key predictors for soil carbon stocks in the studied biomes. The findings emphasize the importance of protecting the surface layers, especially in the Cerrado biome, to enhance SOC stocks and promote sustainable land management practices. Moreover, the results provide valuable insights for the development of nature-based carbon markets and suggest potential strategies for climate change mitigation. Enhancing our understanding of SOC dynamics and adopting precise environmental predictors will contribute to the formulation of targeted soil management strategies and accelerate progress toward achieving climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Insights from transportation research used to improve comprehensive ESOM. • Capturing underlying heterogeneities by increasing contextual model resolution. • The setup underpins importance of tailoring climate strategies to specific settings. • Behavioural shifts have different implications depending on the contextual setting. • Failing to address key cost barriers delays car fleet electrification by five years. Meeting ambitious climate targets requires deep cuts in emissions from passenger transportation. Many studies point to electrification and behavioural shifts as key measures. Spatial, demographic, economic, and transport-sector-related factors shape the opportunities and preferences for change, thus setting the direction and pace of the transition. These factors typically differ between urban, suburban and low-population-density settings, a fact that is generally overlooked in comprehensive energy system optimisation models (ESOM). This study introduces a novel contextual representation of passenger transportation within a national ESOM (TIMES-Sweden). When testing the new approach, different cost barriers to electrification are found across various settings, signalling a need for different policy responses. Further, opportunities for – and impact from – shifts in travel behaviours vary significantly across settings. These results highlight the need for climate change mitigation strategies in passenger transportation which are better tailored to specific contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Climate change triggers shrub encroachment into alpine grasslands and snowbeds. • Back from the future aims restore the encroached vegetation through shrub removal. • A multicriteria research protocol is proposed to assess the experiment feasibility. • The data obtained assessed the full comparability of control and manipulation zones. • The protocol allows assess the experiment feasibility and its long-term monitoring. Climate change triggers changes of vegetation floristic composition, physiognomy and even the onset of new successional pathways, requiring adequate, robust and replicable methodological approaches to properly track these changes. In tundra ecosystems woody plants are encroaching into grasslands and snowbeds, inducing their gradual regression. "Back from the Future" is a pilot project performing selective shrub removal from grasslands and snowbeds in the Italian Central Alps to contrast climate-driven shrub encroachment and promote the recovery and active conservation of vegetation communities. Here we propose a multi-criteria research protocol providing a quantitative tool for: a) the set-up of the manipulation experiment; b) the assessment of the full comparability of manipulation and control areas; c) the long-term monitoring of the efficiency of the manipulation experiment. The experiment was carried out in three study sites (Braulio, Cedec, Sforzellina) across an elevation gradient from the subalpine to the nival belts in the Italian Central Alps. At each study site we identified a control and a manipulation zone to assess the efficiency of the manipulation experiment compared to the natural ecosystem dynamics. The multi-criteria research protocol integrates different sampling approaches: mapping and morphological characterization of trees and shrubs; phytosociological survey of permanent plots; grid-point intercept survey of permanent plots; line-intercept survey along transects; allometric shrub measurements along transects. Our data show that this protocol is applicable to different vegetation types, across different elevation belts, and is suitable to match different targets and/or bioindicators of change. Indeed, the limitations of each selected method when individually applied can be overcome by their combination. Our data demonstrate the full comparability of the control and manipulation zone at each of the three study sites in terms of species richness, floristic composition, species coverage, shrub characteristics and volume. Our results supported the feasibility of this protocol as tool for the set-up of the experiment, to assess the full comparability of control and manipulation zones, and perform a detailed monitoring of the effects and the feasibility of the restoration action and the success and efficiency of this pilot project. The protocol elaborated in the frame of this pilot project could be exported beyond the local context and applied to similar mountain regions, especially in the European Alps, for the planning, set up and monitoring of good land management practices aiming to climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Alpine study sites with a long close-to-nature forestry (CNF) history were studied. • Alternative climate change and CNF management scenarios were simulated. • CNF performs well in ensuring multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity. • Climate change requires adaptation of CNF by fostering climate-adapted tree species. • High multifunctionality, including biodiversity, needs diversified management. Close-to-nature forestry (CNF) has a long tradition in European Alpine forest management, playing a crucial role in ensuring the continuous provision of biodiversity and forest ecosystem services, including protection against natural hazards. However, climate change is causing huge uncertainties about the future applicability of CNF in the Alpine region. The question arises as to whether current CNF practices are still suitable for adapting forests to climate change impacts while also meeting the increasing societal demands regarding Alpine forests, including their potential contribution to climate change mitigation. To answer this question, we simulated forest development using the ForClim forest model at two Alpine study sites, together representing a large biogeographic gradient from high-elevation inner Alpine forests (Switzerland) to lower-elevation south-eastern Alpine forests (Slovenia). The simulations considered three climate scenarios (historical climate, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and six alternative management strategies, including both current CNF management practices and climate-adapted versions. Using an indicator based multi-criteria decision analysis framework, we assessed the joint impacts of climate and management on biodiversity and key ecosystem services of the investigated regions, including carbon sequestration (CS) inside and outside the forest ecosystem boundary. The joint effects of climate change and CNF varied, both among and within the study sites along the biogeographical gradient. While CS was more resistant to climate change under current CNF at the south-eastern Alpine site, it was more sensitive at the inner Alpine site, where CS potentials decreased at lower elevations. This adverse effect could be partly mitigated by fostering the use of climate-adapted tree species. However, current CNF and adaptations of it did not meet multiple management objectives equally well: while protection from gravitation hazards and timber production also benefited from this silvicultural practice, biodiversity benefited from CNF variants with low-intensity or no management. In conclusion, CNF has a high potential to continue fulfilling its crucial role in European Alpine forests. A differentiated approach will be needed in the future, however, to identify forest stands where adaptive measures are required, especially at sites particularly vulnerable to climate change. In combination with less intensively managed or unmanaged areas, CNF provides a management portfolio that will help European Alpine forests to meet the demands of future society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrated multi-objective optimization with wood price uncertainty. • Identified trade-offs and synergies, considering wood price uncertainty. • Optimal management allocations shift with spatial and harvest size constraints. • Spatial restrictions and wood price uncertainty impact NPV and carbon sequestration. • Results inform strategic decisions in forest management. Forest ecosystems deliver multiple services crucial for human wellbeing and welfare, with complex relationships among forest ecosystem services (FESs). Implementing sustainable forest management (SFM) policy requires insights into trade-offs, conflicts and synergies among key FESs, necessitating decision-support tools for multiple objectives. However, uncertainty in key parameters adds complexity. We formulated a tri-objective optimization problem concentrating on three vital ecosystem services in Nordic boreal forests: timber supply, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. Furthermore, future timber price uncertainty was integrated into the optimization model. Utilizing the TreeSim individual-tree growth and yield simulator, we simulated forest growth and yields, carbon stocks, and biodiversity values. Pareto-optimal solutions were found for four distinct management strategies using the epsilon-constrain method to solve the optimization problem. These management strategies differed in spatial restrictions on harvest location and timing, including considerations like harvest adjacency, green-up and maximum harvest opening area (MOA). The analysis revealed trade-offs among all three objectives, with variations influenced by management intensity. Furthermore, within the Pareto solutions for each strategy, a compromise solution was identified based on the knee-point method. The study demonstrated nuanced impacts of green-up constraints related to harvest practices, showing minor effects on harvesting, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation when MOA was restricted to 35 hectares or less. However, more substantial impacts were observed with a MOA limited to 60 hectares or in a strategy without spatial restrictions. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple objectives in forest management and policy under uncertain wood prices, preventing undesired effects from a singular or deterministic approach. This work provides insights into trade-offs and synergies, contributing to strategic planning and policy design. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• DAC donors use significantly different criteria to determine eligibility for, versus the amount of, climate finance allocated. • The same criteria which determine eligibility for access, tend to limit the amount of climate finance allocated by DAC donors. • Different types of donors utilize significantly different criteria to determine the amount of adaptation and mitigation finance allocated. • SIDS need dedicated loss and damage funds because long-term adaptation funds are often diverted to immediate post-disaster recovery. • Low-income SIDS with weak capacities are typically ineligible for climate finance, excluded by complex processes, or receive meagre allocations. Empirical studies of the determinants of access to climate finance have coalesced around a broad set of independent variables, including recipient need, merit and adaptive capacity, and donor interest. This paper provides comprehensive and nuanced insights into the allocation of the varied sources of climate finance by providing answers to the following questions: (i) Do the eligibility criteria used by donors to determine which countries receive climate finance differ from the criteria used to determine the amount of finance allocated? (ii) Do the eligibility criteria and determinants of amounts allocated for mitigation aid differ from those for adaptation aid? (iii) Do different kinds of donors determine eligibility for financing and amount of finance allocated in different ways? (iv) Do SIDS receive more (or less) climate finance than is justified by their relative vulnerability and adaptive capacity? The results provide a better understanding of the challenges faced by SIDS in accessing climate financing, highlight an underemphasized bifurcation within this group of countries, and underscore the need for further exploration of suitable types of support and modalities of delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the pursuit of sustainable development, accurate renewable energy demand forecasting holds great significance for climate change mitigation and promoting sustainability. However, renewable energy forecasting has been consistently challenged by seasonality and nonlinearity. Identifying the periodic and nonlinear characteristics concealed within renewable energy sources accurately is still an unexplored problem. Consequently, an innovative nonlinear discrete seasonal grey model is proposed for renewable energy forecasting, which incorporates seasonal dummy variables and a power exponent term for handling the seasonality and nonlinear patterns in time series. Furthermore, an intelligent algorithm matching framework is proposed to augment the flexibility of the newly developed model. For practical purposes, the new methodology is contrasted against a range of benchmarks encompassing statistical, machine-learning, and traditional grey models in forecasting the quarterly total renewable energy consumption in the United States. The proposed model exhibits over 27% improvement rates over its counterparts, achieving the most superior predictive accuracies of 1.45%, 39.27, and 0.79 in MAPEP , RMSEP , and MASEP metrics, respectively. Furthermore, the probability density and sample size analyses are conducted to validate the robustness of the new model, confirming its adaptability and stability towards algorithm randomness and historical information volume. Consequently, the novel model is employed to forecast the short-to-long-terms renewable energy consumption in the U.S., showcasing an upward trend and seasonal fluctuations of the consumption for the forthcoming 24 quarters from 2023Q4 to 2029Q3. These insights can offer valuable implications to the stakeholders such as energy suppliers, utility managers, and policy advocates, highlighting actionable strategies for optimizing renewable energy consumption forecasting and aiding sustainable development initiatives. • An innovative nonlinear discrete seasonal grey model is proposed for renewable energy forecasting. • The optimum algorithm matching the novel model is determined from five alternatives. • The Monte Carlo Simulation and parameter sensitivity analysis advance the robustness. • PSO with the optimal parameter group has been selected for searching coefficients. • The new model possesses higher accuracy and robustness than various competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We perform an ex-ante life cycle assessment, integrating cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas emissions into an off-grid energy system model. By applying a multi-objective optimization, minimizing both costs and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) emissions, we find the Pareto boundary between these two goals. As a case study, we chose the power supply to an astronomical observatory in Chile, using mostly solar power and energy storage in batteries and hydrogen. We compare the ex-ante study to a prior ex-post life cycle assessment, and furthermore dive into sensitivities of our model regarding component lifetimes and costs. We find (i) low-hanging fruit in lowering emissions with small cost increases, (ii) ex-ante life cycle assessments' possibility to find less CO 2 e intensive power systems compared to ex-post conducted studies, (iii) a pronounced sensitivity of the optimization model on assumed lifetimes of energy storage components. This study shows the importance of including life cycle CO 2 e emissions into the optimization objective of energy system models. This method uncovers the environmental and economic trade-offs associated with high shares of renewable energies in off-grid energy systems. • We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) into an off-grid energy system optimization. • The applied case study powers a remote astronomical telescope in Chile. • A multi-objective optimization finds Pareto curves at varying costs and lifetimes. • Low-hanging fruit shows low additional system costs to reduce CO 2 e impacts. • In contrast, a separate LCA did not find such trade-offs in costs and CO 2 e emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy transitions in Indigenous, Northern and remote communities in Canada promise benefits that go beyond reliable, clean and affordable energy services. The Federal and Provincial governments have committed funding to get remote communities off diesel, acknowledging energy transitions' global and local benefits. Besides climate change mitigation, other benefits, including job creation, income generation, community ownership and local economic growth, are fundamental components of the value proposition of renewable energy projects. However, despite the promises, little evidence of the impacts of renewable energy on communities' local conditions exists. This article looks at the relationship between renewable energy projects and community well-being in Canada. We construct a panel of Indigenous communities and well-being levels using Census data and information about renewable energy projects for the period 1981–2016. The findings suggest that renewable energy is associated with higher levels of well-being. Concretely, having access to renewable energy increases overall well-being by 1 to 5 points on the 0–100 well-being scale, depending on the component of the well-being index considered in the analysis. • Renewable energy and community wellbeing is an essential relationship for successful energy transitions. • The size of the renewable energy projects is strongly associated with higher community wellbeing. • Communities that hold majority ownership of renewable energy projects exhibit higher wellbeing levels. • Solar and wind energy projects are associated with higher wellbeing levels, whereas hydropower is associated with lower ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Virtual water trade (VWT) is the trade of water 'embodied' in a product. This paper explores the extent to which bilateral tariffs, World Trade Organization (WTO), and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) reshape the trade of water across nations and alleviate water scarcity issues. To achieve this goal, we built a panel database on blue (irrigation water) and green (rainwater) VWT among paired trading countries from 1998 to 2002. Using a standard gravity model, we study how the bilateral tariff and WTO/ RTA affect the intensity of blue and green VWT. The results indicate that, on average, a 1% tariff reduction increases the green virtual water trade by 0.219%. In most waterstressed countries, a 1% reduction in tariffs increased blue VWT by 0.416% and green VWT by 0.424%. By crops, we find that tariffs had a negative effect on VWT for the less water-intensive crops, but a positive effect or no effect on the more water-intensive crops. We further find in the most water-stressed countries, RTA facilitated VWT. As a climate mitigation strategy, water-scarce countries can increase VWT, thus reducing the production of water-intensive crops, by lowering tariff rates independently or through trade agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a crucial component for sustainable cities, as inefficient waste disposal contributes to the release of about a billion tons of CO 2 -eq in greenhouse gases (GHG) annually. With escalating global waste generation, there is an untapped opportunity to integrate carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies into existing MSW management processes. This review explores current research on utilizing MSW for CDR, emphasizing its potential for both energy generation and carbon sequestration. The investigation covers three waste management practices: landfilling, waste-to-energy (WtE), and biochar production, revealing two paths for carbon sequestration. First, MSW serves as a feedstock in bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), acting as a carbon-neutral resource that avoids fossil fuel and energy crop use, reducing GHG emissions and generating value through energy production. Second, direct storage of organic MSW and its derivatives, like biochar, in various carbon sinks allows for extended sequestration, offering a comprehensive approach to address the challenges of waste management and climate change mitigation. Moreover, this review advocates for an extended exploration into several subjects including in-depth analysis of waste, research on MSW-derived biochar recalcitrance across different carbon sinks, and understanding the symbiotic connections with GHG-emitting sectors like agriculture and energy. Finally, this review emphasizes the necessity of conducting life-cycle assessment studies to fully discern the benefits and assess the impacts of any future endeavors exploring the role of MSW in carbon sequestration. [Display omitted] • Municipal solid waste (MSW) is an untapped resource for carbon dioxide removal. • Three strategies to utilize MSW for CO 2 removal include landfilling, waste-to-energy, and biochar production. • Carbon sequestration is achieved through MSW-burial and energy recovery with CCS. • Auditing carbon emissions and LCA are necessary to illuminate the impacts of MSW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While cities have been widely considered to be key sites of ambitious and transformative climate action, it is time to question whether they have adequate tools and mandates to reach their goals in time. In this paper we provide a comprehensive assessment of planned measures in major cities, assessing the distribution of persuasive (soft) versus direct regulatory (hard) and material measures using an urban systems perspective. Examining 1079 climate measures of 19 cities in the global C40 network we find that the majority of measures can be considered as soft measures , focused on raising awareness, incentivising businesses, engaging citizens, and developing new plans. Our cases suggest that cities in the Global South are more focused on hard and material measures and less prone to voluntarism than cities in the Global North. Generally, showing that strategies for sustainability transformations in cities are heavily reliant on voluntarism and persuasion, the article expresses concern for the ability of cities to meet its ambitious targets. The research literature on urban climate governance should expand from its current focus on collaborative, network-based and experimental governance, to reconsider the roles of regulation and control in meeting climate targets. • Provides a comprehensive assessment of planned climate measures in 19 major cities • Analyses 1079 climate measures and categorises into soft, hard and material modes • We find that the majority of measures (more than half) can be considered as soft. • We critically discuss the viability of ambitious climate targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) fertilisation is critical for sugarcane crop production. Consequently, overuse of N fertiliser in sugarcane is widespread and it is most prevalent in China. Yet, a comprehensive analysis of sugarcane N balance accounting for different reactive N (Nr) loss pathways, crop N use and soil N retention using 15N labelled fertilisers under commercial high-input cropping conditions is lacking. A two-year field experiment with 5 N levels (0–560 kg N ha−1; N0, N210, N300, N390, N560) was conducted to quantify the effect of N rate on sugarcane yield, Nr loss through different loss pathways, crop N use and soil N retention, and to identify an optimal N rate that sustain high yield whilst reducing Nr loss in Southern China. The results showed that optimal N rate (N300) had similar yield compared with farmer practice (N560) for the plant crop and the ratoon crop. Nitrogen leaching and ammonia loss were increased significantly with increase in N rate, with farmer practice recording the highest Nr loss. Compared with farmer practice, under optimal N application, N leaching was reduced from 211 kg ha−1 to 107 kg ha−1 and from 244 kg ha−1 to 165 kg ha−1 for the plant and ratoon crops, respectively. The ammonia volatilization from the plant crop and the ratoon crop in the optimal N treatment was 24.8 kg ha−1 and 27.0 kg ha−1, respectively, which are considerably less compared with the emission from the farmer practice. There was no significant difference in nitrous oxide emission between optimal N rate and farmer practice. 15N labelling studies showed that crop N recovery, soil N residue and fertiliser N lost at the optimal N rate were 20.9%, 24.9% and 54.2%, respectively, as opposed to 12.5%, 14.8% and 72.7%. respectively, under farmer practice. To the best of our knowledge, this study forms the first comprehensive evaluation of sugarcane N balance accounting Nr loss, N use and native N soil stock covering a wide range of N supply simultaneously in the plant and ratoon crops under commercial crop production condition. This study thus provides very valuable new knowledge not only for crop N supply optimisation in high-input sugarcane production systems as in China but also for sugarcane greenhouse gas accounting studies particularly from climate change mitigation and bioenergy production context. [Display omitted] • First detailed sugarcane crop N balance (Nr loss, N use, soil N stock) estimated. • Current average sugarcane crop N input in China (560 kg N ha−1) very excessive. • Large reduction in N input and Nr loss without yield loss in multi-year field trials. • Leaching, the single largest N loss pathway in sugarcane crop. • Large crop N recovery, fertiliser N loss reduction with optimal N use (300 kg N ha−1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Case study of wetlands conservation for carbon sequestration in California, USA. • Defines framework for assessing justice of state investment in climate mitigation. • Most vulnerable communities received least funding for wetlands conservation. • Wetlands' climate adaptive co-benefits concentrated in least vulnerable communities. • "Just mitigation" requires producing adaptive co-benefits for most vulnerable. Using the case of wetlands in California, USA, this paper defines (and assesses strategies for advancing) an understudied corollary of maladaptation and "just adaptation": "just mitigation." Wetlands sequester carbon, making their conservation and restoration important for climate mitigation. They also offer co-benefits for climate adaptation, such as greenspace that mitigates the urban heat island and improves local environmental health. However, if such co-benefits are concentrated in the least vulnerable communities, the result would be "unjust mitigation." This analysis uses a distributive justice lens to compare environmental justice indicators between areas of past and potential investment in wetlands conservation and restoration. On average, areas with greater pollution burden and social vulnerability and less greenspace have received less investment in wetlands conservation and restoration and contain fewer wetlands that could receive investment earmarked for wetlands in the future. This begs the question of what degree of such inequality is acceptable in exchange for reducing overall carbon emissions. Advancing "just mitigation" requires prioritizing wetlands near environmentally burdened communities. However, if such wetlands have reduced sequestration potential due to ecological damage, the goals of mitigation, adaptation, and environmental justice may be in tension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 has been embraced by a variety of countries including South Korea. In South Korea, an increasingly vital neutrality strategy is enhancing carbon absorption through land use planning. A key consideration in these strategies is the comprehensive evaluation of carbon sinks present in various land cover categories. These carbon sinks—most notably forests, grasslands, and wetlands—play a critical role in mitigating the effects of climate change by locking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. However, forests and grasslands have long been prime avenues for new exurban development. This study analyzes the effects of large-scale development across several key carbon sinks for the Seoul Metropolitan Area of South Korea. Our findings indicate that the key carbon sinks increased from 2007 to 2021. Regardless, urban development has flourished where greenbelts were released, leading to significant depletion of forests, grasslands, and wetlands. However, converting farmland to New Town developments with massive park systems has contributed to an increase in carbon sinks in some parts of the region. In the perspective of South Korea's goals for carbon neutrality, absorption is insufficient. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the loss of sinks as a cost of sprawl and frame policies to expand storage through afforestation or reassessment of idle, undeveloped land. • A considerable amount of carbon sinks was lost from developing New Towns on greenbelt lands. • Converting farmland to New Towns with large park systems contributed may increase carbon sinks. • Preserving existing natural carbon sinks and creating large urban park systems in new developments could promote sustainable development and climate mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study investigates the relatively unexplored relationships between socio-economic factors and perceptions of climate change and their influence on household energy preferences in developing contexts, taking the case of Nepal. We aim to achieve two objectives: to create a robust model identifying key socio-economic and climate perception variables affecting household energy behaviour; and to compare the respective impacts of these factors. Applying a mixed-method approach, we surveyed 323 households across 49 districts and three physiographic regions (high hills, mid hills and Terai plains) of Nepal. We fixed the explanatory and response variables through literature review and evaluated three ordinal logistic regression models: one focused solely on socio-economic factors, the second only on climate perception and the third a composite model integrating both. Data statistics showed that 47 % of the respondents preferred no change to their existing energy status, 23 % opted to rely completely on grid-electricity, 14 % favoured switching to renewables, while 16 % preferred an optimal combination of grid-electricity and renewables for their household use. The Composite-model was found to be the best fit model for our dataset. The identified key socio-economic factors include urbanization, education levels, and the availability of energy alternatives indicating a wide disparity in the energy access and use across the different socio-economic categories of Nepal. Likewise, magnitude and timing of summer and winter rainfall, changes in the household energy demands and community level subsidies were found to be the significant climate change perception variables. Hence, our findings highlight the need for better access to modern energy and financial incentives, mostly to the rural remote areas, and community-awareness initiatives throughout the country supported by comprehensive energy policies for sustainable renewable energy transition at the household level as well as in mitigation of the impacts of climate change. By enhancing this policy-science-society interface, our research contributes valuable insights for developing effective strategies to promote renewable energy adoption in similar developing contexts. • People's energy preferences are impacted by multiple factors. • Composite model outperformed its counterparts. • Socio-economic and climate change perception parameters need to be dealt holistically. • A significant contribution to the policy-science-society interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Revealing regional differences in the drivers' contribution to global carbon sequestration and oxygen release is urgent. • Regional differences may cause drivers' contributions to carbon sequestration and oxygen release to offset each other. • Clarified the scale transmission of the drivers underlying carbon sequestration and oxygen release. • Provides a conceptual framework and decision-making aid to address the negative impacts of global climate change. • Climate change decision-making needs to consider both top-down and bottom-up scaling transmissions. Understanding the scale transmission of the drivers underlying carbon sequestration and oxygen release (CSOR) is essential for climate change mitigation. However, the regional differences in the global contribution of the drivers remain unknown, limiting the effectiveness of climate policies. Based on the United Nations' geographical divisions and data from 2000 to 2020, we show that vegetation, evapotranspiration, and temperature are the main contributors to CSOR in more than 70 % of the world and that there are spatial differences in their action direction (facilitating or inhibiting). Drivers show nonlinear effects on CSOR and have different thresholds in different regions. Significant interactions existed among the factors, either superimposed enhancement or mutual offset, depending on the regions. If regional differences in drivers' global contributions are neglected, attempts to address climate change in various regions may offset each other. Considering both top-down and bottom-up scale transmission can improve the effectiveness of policy objectives. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Energy & chemical inputs, biogenic emissions, and product substitutions dominate environmental performance of biorefineries. • More transparency needed for product substitution modelling to avoid misleading conclusions. • Biogenic carbon capture use/storage could enhance future climate mitigation efficacy of biorefineries. • Accurate representation of biogenic carbon cycling essential to identify role of biorefineries in net zero strategies. Anaerobic digestion (AD) has gained attention in the last decade as a strategic component of the circular bioeconomy (CBE), and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been used to explore the environmental performance of prospective AD-biorefineries. A detailed review of 76 studies underpinned systematic evaluation of environmental hotspots and LCA modelling challenges for AD-biorefinery configurations. Crops constitute the most frequently used feedstocks, while electricity, bioethanol, digestate, animal feed, additives, and platform chemicals represent the most reported products. Feedstock cultivation, energy and chemical inputs, biogenic emissions, and avoided burdens due to product substitution are the main drivers of environmental performance. However, modelling of product substitution, biogas upgrading, digestate management and biogenic carbon cycling is patchy, inconsistent, and often inadequately evidenced. Prospective and dynamic LCA coupled with transparent scenario analysis could address some of these shortcomings, and better represent, inter alia , the climate mitigation efficacy of carbon capture use and storage technologies integrated into AD-biorefineries. These findings provide a guide for LCA practitioners and researchers engaged in the study of biorefinery systems and other CBE measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With less than 6 years left to achieve the global sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030, there is a growing urgency to increase the effectiveness of policy actions by targeting multiple SDGs. Mathematical modeling tools facilitate sustainability assessment in support of integrated policymaking. This study examines the interlinkages between the SDGs with commonly used and broadly applicable energy system models (ESMs) using the 248 indicators defined by the United Nations. The SDGs are classified under the environment (SDGs 6, 7, 12, 13, 14, 15), economy (SDGs 8, 9, 10, 11, 17), and society (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 16) domains governing the sustainability framework. The results ascertain that current ESMs are conceived to prioritize energy-related environmental indicators related to SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and SDG13 (Climate Action) with limited focus on non-energy indicators of the environmental domain, along with little to no coverage of SDGs-indicators allocated within the economic and social domains, respectively. The findings call for expanding the frontiers of ESMs to incorporate emerging systemic interdependencies that extend beyond the traditional "energy-environmental" nexus considering the multi-dimensional facets of sustainable development. For this purpose, a conceptual integrated framework was developed underscoring procedural protocols and technical directives to advance the ESMs-SDGs modeling paradigm through the application of methodological improvement opportunities. Theoretical and practical implications driven by policy and managerial perspectives were also discussed. In closure, this study can inform stakeholders about the gaps (sustainability issues and corresponding targets-indicators) that are imperative to address in modeling the SDGs and how to leverage existing ESMs into integrating a broader range of SDGs beyond traditional considerations. The improved outcomes are expected to facilitate integrated sustainable policy planning and formulation in pursuit of operationalizing the SDGs for the timely attainment of the 2030 agenda. [Display omitted] • Shortlisted ten commonly used and broadly applicable energy system models (ESMs). • Systematic interlinkages mapping among ESMs and SDGs using 248 indicators. • Ranked SDGs-indicators coverage within ESMs using a customized scoring system. • ESMs focus on energy-environmental indicators followed by economic and then social. • Proposed conceptual integrated framework for advancing ESMs-SDGs modeling paradigm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethylene is one of the most important products in the emissions-intensive petrochemical industry. Decarbonizing the ethylene industry is thus important for achieving global carbon neutrality. This study is the first to explore future long-term zero-emissions production pathways for the ethylene industry in China, the world's biggest ethylene producer. An optimization model was built in the context of China's carbon neutrality target of 2060. Four scenarios were developed where the policy ambitions for climate mitigation and for plastic management including waste were varied. Based on this, authors assessed the cumulative total emissions, technology options, future geographical location of ethylene production, and policy challenges associated with each scenario. This is also the first time that scope 3 emissions from waste incineration are included, motivated by the short lifetime of most ethylene products. Results show the cumulative CO 2 emissions for the scenarios differ considerably, ranging from 4.3 to 7.8 Gt, even if carbon neutrality by 2060 is achieved in all scenarios. The results suggest that ambitious plastic focused policies can result in lower costs and less cumulative emissions compared to ambitious climate focused policies. The results demonstrate the importance of adopting CCS for waste incineration. This reduces cumulative CO 2 emissions by up to 2 Gt. However, reduced overall demand and increased recycling rates should be priority options due to CCS challenges. Results suggest Chinese ethylene industry should adopt a mixed portfolio of production technologies, where the share of emission-intensive coal-based methanol-to-olefins is limited. These findings on decarbonization pathways can contribute to achieving the Paris agreement. [Display omitted] • Ambitious plastic policies lead to 1.3 Gt less cumulative CO 2 than climate policies. • Cumulative CO 2 until 2060 can be reduced by 3.5 Gt compared to reference scenario. • Adopting CCS in incineration can reduce cumulative CO 2 emissions by 2 Gt. • Ethylene industry should adopt a mixed production portfolio due to uncertainties. • Coal-based MTO with CCS does not appear to be a cost-competitive option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere has crossed an unprecedented level of 420 ppm, causing catastrophic events like climate change. Climate change mitigation via carbon capture is crucial for reducing CO 2 emissions. Among various CO 2 capture technologies, adsorption is considered one of the most efficient and promising techniques. In recent times, substantial research has been conducted on producing cost-effective and efficient adsorbents for CO 2 capture via the thermal and chemical treatments of biomass. In this review, we discuss key scientific results to give broad insight into the recent progress in biomass conversion to activated porous carbon (APC). The effects of various chemical and thermal treatments on the textural properties and CO 2 adsorption capacity of APC are comprehensively discussed. CO 2 adsorption mechanism based on interaction with the surface functionality is thoroughly explained. The economic aspects of APC synthesis and post-combustion CO 2 capture using APC are systematically reviewed. [Display omitted] • Use of biomass based activate porous carbon (APC) for CO 2 capture is reviewed. • CO 2 adsorption mechanism on APC surface is thoroughly explained. • APC surface functionalization via metal doping and heteroatom doping is discussed. • Economics of APC synthesis & large-scale CO 2 capture on APC is critically reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the potential of utilizing carbon credits to finance innovative local energy communities in Europe, addressing a significant gap in academic literature. Despite the growing interest in voluntary carbon credits as a mechanism for offsetting carbon emissions, there is limited evidence connecting local energy systems to voluntary carbon markets. The study explores whether carbon credits could serve as a practical tool for funding the development of energy communities, contributing to sustainable energy transitions and climate mitigation strategies. The research employs a comprehensive methodology to assess the quality of carbon credit projects and examines ten innovative energy community projects in Europe. Key findings reveal there is potential for using carbon credits to finance energy community initiatives. However, challenges persist, particularly regarding financing barriers and the volatile nature of carbon markets. The study underscores the importance of policy support in establishing clear standards for voluntary markets and promoting the accessibility of carbon offsets. Furthermore, it suggests potential solutions such as pre-financing agreements and the utilization of carbon market derivatives to enhance project viability. Overall, the study offers insights into the intersection between voluntary carbon markets and local energy initiatives, providing a foundation for further research and policy development in the field of local sustainable development and climate change mitigation. [Display omitted] • Innovative local energy communities in Europe have significant carbon emissions reduction potential. • Carbon credit issuance could financially support the development of local energy initiatives. • Challenges persist in accessing financing and navigating volatile carbon markets. • Policy support is crucial in establishing clear standards for voluntary carbon markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to explore the current evidence on the sustainability of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage under a life cycle approach and to understand how research on this topic has evolved in the last decade. A systematic literature review was performed, and the main focus was identifying methodological shortcomings and analysing Global Warming Potential results. Forty-seven studies were selected for in-depth revision. Results show that the number of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies on BECCS has increased in the last couple of years and that most of these studies report near-carbon neutral or carbon-negative results for electricity, biofuel energy, and other products. However, in many cases, some aspects have been omitted from the discussion, such as proper accounting of land use impacts, impact allocation procedure, accounting of leakage from storage sites, and impacts related to carbon utilisation. Despite this methodological variability, Global Warming Potential results are mostly carbon-negative and carbon-neutral for both power BECCS and industrial BECCS systems. Consequently, current scientific evidence suggests climate change mitigation benefits from BECCS despite methodological variability. However, it is still insufficient to reach a consensus on the sustainability of this technology as a solution for a global energy transition. It is recommended that further LCA research deals carefully with methodological and product systems variability, which may affect environmental impact results. Moreover, carbon capture approaches with high potential benefits should be further analysed, and the most optimal BECCS typologies should be identified. Finally, additional life cycle impact categories should be reported, along with the assessment of the economic and social dimensions of BECCS. [Display omitted] • Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) was reviewed. • LCA methodology choices were discussed. • Global Warming Potential ranges between −3.873 and 0.366 kg CO 2 eq per MJ. • Current evidence is insufficient to confirm that BECCS is a sustainable solution for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves are under immense anthropogenic pressures globally which are further exacerbated by their accessibility to humans. To minimize human access hence pressures to the ecosystem, establishment of protected areas is often employed. However, the ecological effectiveness of protected areas, which influences their legal durability, is rarely assessed beyond curbing deforestation. Furthermore, little is known about whether protection could still provide a positive ecological impact if the sites are easily accessible, i.e., adjacent to urban areas, near roads, small in area and/or fragmented. To improve our understanding thereon, this study compares anthropogenic disturbance severity, forest structures and ecosystem carbon (C) stocks of protected and unprotected mangroves near Barranquilla, Colombia's largest coastal city. The outcomes suggest that accessible, yet protected mangrove has a mean disturbance index of 5.3, lower than unprotected mangrove (mean 11). Protected mangrove also has higher mean (± SD) tree basal area (26.5 ± 15.6 m2 ha−1), mean densities of tree, sapling and seedling (899 ± 398, 5155 ± 7860, and 68,837 ± 73,899 individual ha−1, respectively) and biomass C stock (mean 89.5 ± 39 Mg ha−1) than those of accessible unprotected mangrove (mean basal area 19.3 ± 5 m2 ha−1; mean tree, sapling and seedling densities 823 ± 215, 749 ± 94, and 33,727 ± 44,882 individual ha−1, respectively; mean biomass C stock 60.2 ± 14.5 Mg ha−1). Results suggest that the current sediment C stocks, that is higher in unprotected than protected mangroves (396.8 ± 552.6 and 142.4 ± 205.7 Mg ha−1, respectively), are not primarily driven by conservation status, but by long-term processes that likely pre-date the protected status designation. Mangrove protection, however, could help maintain carbon stocks in soils and biomass and the potential for further soil carbon sequestration, and thus are pivotal in determining future trajectories of mangrove climate mitigation potential. This study shows that even imperfect protection offers ecological benefits to highly accessible ecosystems. Hence, focus should be placed on optimizing these benefits and minimizing their vulnerability to downgrading, downsizing and degazettement. • influence of protection on mangroves is assessed beyond curbing deforestation. • protection effectively limit anthropogenic disturbance on mangroves. • protection promotes mangrove biomass C and regeneration potential. • mangrove sediment C stocks is largely influenced by sediment properties. • mangrove protection is ecologically beneficial even for highly accessible systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The dynamic rate of comprehensive LULC in tongzhou district was 0.93 %. • The average LST in summer increased by 8.85 K from 1990 to 2020. • The increase of impervious surface area showed a positive contribution to the LST. • Unit contribution of anthropogenic exploitation (0.17 K/km2) was more prominent. • Background climate was the main contributor to the total thermal environment change. Land urbanization is a prominent feature of China's rapid development. The dynamic evolution of land use/land cover (LULC) can be employed to clarify the response mechanisms of urban thermal environment changes to background climate/anthropogenic exploitation. This study emphasized on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LULC and land surface temperature (LST) during 1990–2020 in Tongzhou District. Combined with the partial derivative algorithm, the separate contributions of background climate (represented by LULC-LST change) and anthropogenic exploitation (represented by LULC-Area change) to thermal environment change were decomposed. The results showed that the contribution of LULC-Area change was dominated by the negative effect of cropland area change and the positive effect of impervious-area change, whereas, background climate was the main contributor to the total thermal environment change. The unit contribution of anthropogenic exploitation (0.172 K/km2) was higher than that of background climate (0.013 K/km2). Moreover, the eastward expansion of human exploitation led to a gradual increase in the unit contribution of the thermal environment in the eastern townships. This study provides a Chinese case for Climate Action and acts as a theoretical support for adopting nature-based solutions/human forces to improve human settlements and follow a new path to urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare organisations have a significant carbon footprint due to their substantial energy consumption and waste generation. The existing literature has mostly focused on examining the isolated impact of specific green organisational practices on individual dimensions of environmental performance. Hence, policy makers and practitioners still lack a holistic view of how combinations of green organisational practices can mitigate the impact on climate change of healthcare organisations. Drawing on the practice-based view (PBV) of strategy, the study first examines the extent to which the adoption of imitable, individual green organisational practices impacts on the whole climate change mitigation performance of publicly owned hospitals. Second, it explores possible combinations of green organisational practices that can lead to high levels of climate change mitigation performance. Focusing on the illustrative case of publicly owned acute care hospitals in the English National Health Service and employing a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis and a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the analysis shows that the adoption of the practice of green energy procurement can, in isolation, positively lead to high climate change mitigation outcomes. Moreover, high performance levels can be achieved through multiple configurations of green organisational practices. Therefore, the findings suggest that the effectiveness of green organisational practices on climate change mitigation performance of hospitals depends on how practices are combined, rather than on their single effects, and indicate the presence of a complementary as well as a substitution effect between practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality strategies have a significant role in climate mitigation efforts. As global concerns regarding climate change continue to increase, achieving carbon neutrality has emerged as a paramount objective for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting the adverse impacts of anthropogenic activities on the environment. This research investigates a wide range of scholarly works to conduct an in-depth analysis and synthesis of the relevant information about carbon neutrality strategies. The review introduces carbon neutrality principles and terminologies, highlighting their importance in climate mitigation. It then proceeds to explore the wide range of strategies employed across different sectors and industries, investigating their effectiveness, scalability, and potential challenges. A multidimensional analysis contrasts the United States Nationally Determined Contributions pathway 2023, China's Nationally Determined contributions 2023, and the EU Directive 2023/2413, assessing their economic, environmental, political, and social impacts. The study evaluates strategies' effectiveness, scalability, and innovation for transitioning to a sustainable, low-carbon future. It fills a gap by analyzing global approaches across the US, China, and the EU, which account for about 50% of the world's total GHG emissions. It evaluates the novel application of diverse strategies, from renewable energy transitions to innovative policy measures, highlighting their potential to mitigate climate change effectively. By providing a multidimensional analysis of these strategies' impacts, the research not only enhances understanding of effective carbon neutrality tactics but also underscores the importance of international cooperation in realizing a sustainable, low-carbon future. • Identifies and analyzes carbon neutrality strategies, emphasizing the need for diverse US, Chinese, and EU approaches. • Evaluate renewable energy, carbon capture, and policy tools for carbon reduction effectiveness, scalability, and innovation. • Highlights the study's novelty in synthesizing current knowledge on carbon neutrality, addressing a significant research gap. • Concludes with strategic ideas for international collaboration and policy development for low-carbon futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of patent ap plications for climate change mitigation technologies (CCMT) in China has shown a rapid development trend over the past decade. This study applies social network analysis (SNA) method and directed time-exponential random graph model(TERGM), while considering endogenous network structure variables, node variables and external network covariates, to analyze the Climate Change Mitigation Technology Innovation Cooperation Network (CCMTICN) formed in Chinese provinces, and analyzes the influencing factors and evolution of the CCMTICN from 2011 to 2021 using CCMT patent data from the Himmpat database. The results show that CCMTICN shows obvious core-edge structural characteristics; endogenous network structural variables have a non-negligible influence on the formation of the network, and other factors such as the information exchange network, industrialization level, knowledge level, and the degree of governmental intervention can promote the formation of CCMTICN; whereas, foreign direct investment, urbanization level, and carbon dioxide(CO 2) emissions can inhibit the formation of CCMTICN. When considering the 11-year time effect of CCMTICN, it is found that the CCMT cooperative relationship between provinces remains relatively stable. • Edge weights set by cooperative patents between provinces. • Examined CCMTICN factors over three periods using TERGM. • Added Baidu index to network variables; assessed CO2 impact. • Time effects in TERGM analyzed for network stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of green energy technologies to supply berthed ships in ports with the necessary power instead of using their diesel generators is considered an initiative towards sustainability and climate change mitigation. Therefore, the current paper investigates the implementation of solar panels, offshore wind turbines, and hydrogen fuel cell systems as green technologies to supply the berthed ships with power in three Egyptian ports. The power requirements are determined by analyzing the annual ship traffic data and estimating the energy demand for each ship type. As a relevant result, the annual energy demand for ships berthed in Alexandria, Damietta, and Safaga ports is about 44.2 × 103 MWh, 22 × 103 MWh, and 5.6 × 103 MWh, respectively. The analysis results reveal a potential annual carbon dioxide reduction of 31.7 k-tons, 15.7 k-tons, and 4.2 k-tons in Alexandria, Damietta, and Safaga ports, respectively. From an economic perspective, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar panels is estimated to be 80.7–90.1 $/MWh, while hydrogen fuel cells have a cost of 166.8–172 $/MWh. On the other hand, LCOE in the case of wind turbines is estimated to be 140.8 $/MWh for Alexandria ports, 178.3 $/MWh for Damietta port, and 103.9 $/MWh for Safaga port. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in basalt is being actively investigated as a scalable climate change mitigation option. Accurate geochemical modeling prediction of the extent and rate of CO 2 mineralization is a critical component in assessing the local and global feasibility and efficacy of this strategy. In this study, we review basalt-CO 2 -water interaction experimental studies conducted during the last two decades to determine whether they provide useable information for geochemical modeling. Most of the cited experiments generate data on the temporal evolution of water composition, and a few provide identification of secondary precipitates and their compositions, offering information about the reactivity of basalts and the likelihood of secondary carbonate mineralization at various temperatures, pHs, and p CO 2 conditions. However, most experiments provide insufficient information on the properties and quantity of secondary minerals formed, prohibiting accurate mass balance calculations and hence more quantitative geochemical modeling studies. Primary Ca, Mg, and Fe-bearing minerals in basalt control the availability of major ions released into aqueous solution for carbonate precipitation, and many secondary minerals, i.e., smectites, Ca-Mg-Fe carbonates, and zeolites, provide sinks for the same major ions, some of which are difficult to quantify experimentally. Thus, we have a "multi-source and multi-sink" inverse mass balance modeling problem with insufficient constraints on the bulk system in which the temporal evolution of major ions does not provide sufficient information on which mineral(s) dissolve or the sequence of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Going forward, this review highlights the need for providing better-constrained experimental data to calibrate basalt-CO 2 -water geochemical models. Hence, we propose that future experimental work should focus on trace elements and multiple isotopic tracers as well as emphasize the need for better characterization of the solid reaction products with modern analytical instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A widely used hydrological model is applied at the national scale to Spain. • Hydrological ecosystem services are evaluated under a business-as-usual land abandonment scenario. • Land abandonment increases water levels in wetter regions and decreases them in drier areas. • The tool can be easily applied to other countries or basins. This research demonstrates the opportunities and challenges for decision-makers in the use of satellite data driven hydrological model such as WaterWorld to assess current hydrological ecosystem services at the national scale and evaluate the impact of land use scenarios for the future. Spain has been selected as a case study in view of the negative consequences for hydrological ecosystem services caused by land abandonment over the last few decades, which, if action is not taken soon, will make Spain the European Union country most affected by this problem in the coming years. The results show that continued land abandonment will exacerbate the already geographically polarised situation of land abandonment of agricultural areas in the north of the country due to their low economic viability, in contrast to intensification of irrigated area in the most arid regions of Spain, leading to an increase in water balances in the already wet areas and a decrease in the arid areas. However, there is much to be gained from restoration of nature in Spain. Beyond the obvious benefits for biodiversity, climate change mitigation and recreation, abandonment of current agricultural land and its return to natural cover will lead to improvements in water quality ecosystem services. This model used, which is easily replicable to other countries given the availability of a user-friendly interface and embedded global data, can help analyse hydrological ecosystem services in any other country in the world. Like all models and measurements, WaterWorld has limitations so results should be viewed critically, but can still contribute to discussions on land management for sustainability, alongside other source of information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the use of biochar as a soil amendment has been widely studied as a promising strategy for climate change mitigation, to date, due to the extremely heterogeneous nature of this material, there is not a general agreement of the scientific community about its soil amendment potential. In the present paper, a comprehensive approach has been adopted to test the short-term effects of biochar alone or in combination with compost on soil biochemical properties related to C and N cycling functions, microbial community, and lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) yield in a Mediterranean environment. With this purpose, a randomized block field trial was set up within an experimental area of about 500 m2. The four treatments tested were: 1) Control (C), no treatment; 2) Compost (CMP); 3) Biochar (BIO); 4) Compost-Biochar mixture (CMP + BIO in the ratio 9:1 w /w). After 45 days of cultivation, the biomass of well-developed lettuce plants was increased from 2- to 2.5-fold in all amended soils with respect to the control one. The CMP amended soils showed a higher effect with respect to the BIO amended soils on enzymatic activities (increase in β-glucosidase, SEI, synthetic enzymatic index, and butyrate esterase) and microbial community structure evaluated by the Ester-linked Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (El-FAME) profiling (increase in G- bacteria, total fungi, and AMF). The increase in the activity and abundance of the microbial community in CMP amended soils could indicate that the organic matter provided by the compost is more readily mineralized than that added with the biochar. Moreover, the BIO amended soils showed the lowest qCO 2 and ecoenzymatic C:N ratio and the highest q MIC (1.4 %), indicating a C immobilization process into the microbial biomass and a greater limitation for N with respect to C, offset by an increase in N-cycling enzyme activity. In the short term, even if the number of well-developed plants increased in all treated soils, a boost of soil C and N cycling was evident with CMP and BIO amendments respectively. Conversely, the combination of CMP with BIO (CMP + BIO) did not provide any synergic effect, probably because requiring longer periods. For these reasons repeated combined treatments can be suggested to reach a cumulative effect on soil quality over time using a balanced C:N ratio in the mixture amendment. • The number of well-developed plants (Lettuce sativa L.) increased in all treated soils. • Microbial viable biomass and its enzymatic activity were increased by compost treatment. • Biochar treatment induced C immobilization into microbial biomass and promoted N cycling. • The combining of compost and biochar seems to have had no synergistic effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The arable-to-grassland conversion caused an annual SOC accrual of 0.30 Mg C/ha. • The accrual was unaffected by pre-conversion soil C level. • A steady state in SOC accrual was not observed during the 26 years of grassland. Converting arable land to permanent grassland may favor SOC sequestration and thus climate change mitigation. We studied a field experiment on coarse sand soil that during 1894–1997 was under arable rotation with various nutrient treatments (unfertilized, mineral fertilizer, animal manure), leading to topsoils with different SOC contents. In 1998, the treatments stopped, and a semi-natural grassland has been established with topsoil sampled seven times during the following 26 years. Introduction of grassland increased topsoil SOC content linearly at a rate of 0.30 ± 0.01 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, unaffected by pre-conversion SOC level and with no sign of steady state. By mitigating the loss of SOC associated with continued arable cropping, the overall benefit of this land conversion becomes 0.39 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1998 to 2023. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• CO 2 flows by forest dynamics and forest operations in one simulation tool. • Generic meta -model for plugging in any silvicultural concept of interest. • Freely available as an open source R-package on CRAN. Carbon stocks and flows in forest ecosystems play an important role in the context of climate change mitigation. Different aspects of the forest carbon balance, however, are often treated independently, leading to a fragmented, disciplinary knowledge. With the R-package care4cmodel we want to support a consolidated view of forest growth and forest operations with respect to carbon flows. The software is, in essence, a pragmatic simulation tool that allows juxtaposing the CO 2 uptake due to wood increment and the CO 2 emissions due to forest operations for given silvicultural concepts in an arbitrary area, over time. At the core, the approach is a dynamic forest area model where forest development stages are represented in a cyclical sequence, which can be broken by disturbances. The model scales up growth and yield information given per forest development stage and unit area to the dynamically simulated development stage areas. This allows to quantify the total forest area's CO 2 uptake, and to estimate the CO 2 emissions caused by forest operations. The forest operations in our implementation include the maintenance of the forest road network, felling trees, debranching and bucking the stems, and extracting the timber to a landing at a forest road. The transport from there to the industry is beyond the system boundary. For the CO 2 uptake of the forest system, the current model version focuses on the wood increment only. We use a practical example to demonstrate the basic features of the model and its plausible behaviour. Beyond the current focus of the model, we see a broad field of applications as a generic meta model, especially in the context of ecosystem service provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An integrated assessment model AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) has been used climate change mitigation studies and the core of AIM is a computable general equilibrium model, AIM/Hub. However, the energy representation in the AIM/Hub is abstract and to overcome that shortcoming, this study integrated AIM/Hub with the energy system model AIM/Technology. First, we assessed how the new integrated model differ from the original standalone AIM/Hub. Second, we conducted the exchange of model outputs iteratively and evaluated how the model results converged. Comparing previous and corresponding iteration, the data points with discrepancies greater than 5% at the third iteration were only 5 variables which were minor variables from the full energy system point of view. The macroeconomic implications of climate change mitigation differ between the standalone AIM/Hub and the new integrated model, and however, there was no systematic discrepancies. Overall, the new model is valid for exploring energy-economic scenarios. • The new global AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) is developed. • AIM/Hub is integrated with the energy system model. • The key indicators show similar trends in original and new models. • Most major variables converge well at the third iteration. • The new model is valid for exploring future global energy-economic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to reduce US emissions from transportation rely greatly on the Environmental Protection Agency's MOVES software to estimate pollutant emissions, a high-precision, computationally intensive tool with many required inputs. To compare numerous scenarios at scale, decision-makers need a faster, user-friendly, and credible emissions estimator. This study introduces MOVESLite, a framework for making fast, highly accurate predictions (with respect to MOVES) of emissions tailored to a user's county, with a limited, more user-friendly number of inputs. MOVESLite uses county- and pollutant-specific models trained on previous MOVES estimates to estimate transportation emissions immediately. While MOVES may take minutes-to-hours to estimate one county-year's emissions, MOVESLite takes approximately 1 ms, with acceptable accuracy. We test MOVESLite performance, comparing thousands of possible models' accuracy for random samples of US counties, and we implement a case study of public transportation planning in Tompkins County, NY. MOVESLite aims to help decision-makers compare and select effective climate action policies. [Display omitted] • We present a new method for swift emissions estimates for transportation policies. • MOVESLite makes predictions in milliseconds, compared to minutes or hours. • MOVESLite uses county-specific models trained on MOVES-estimated big datasets. • MOVESLite models show high accuracy among thousands of sampled use cases. • We demo MOVESLite's value-added in a case study of bus policies in Tompkins County. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreland basin tectonics along the eastern Palaeo-Tethys Ocean produced a complex and dynamic pattern of sediment delivery to adjacent basins. Environmental processes at the local scale significantly disrupt regional ones, making the analysis of sedimentary evolution difficult. This study investigated the Lower Permian Liangshan Formation black shale formed in such geological setting, rich in cherts with exceptionally high silica and fluctuating major and trace element concentrations, detected using XRD, XRF, and ICP-MS techniques. Different types of silica, including detrital quartz, recrystallised radiolaria, microcrystalline quartz, and quartz veins, were identified using SEM and SEM-CL imaging. Geochemical characterisation and enrichment pattern analyses indicated that the structural setting was characterised by proximity to the oceanic island arc, continental island arc, and passive margin, and the major zone of sediment accumulation was a semi-restricted back-arc basin under the subduction zone. The processes controlling sediment accumulation included hydrothermal activity, upwelling, biogenic silica, and terrestrial inputs. Although upwelling interfered with the mobility and migration of hydrothermal elements, it introduced abundant nutrients, and together with hydrothermal fluids, it contributed to the subsequent boom in siliceous organisms. Terrigenous inputs induced by land uplift significantly diluted the components from other sources. This multi-source proxies approach not only enables researchers to disentangle local from regional processes but also sheds light on how these diverse environmental forces interact within intricate earth systems, which enhance our comprehension of geologic history and inform ongoing studies focused on climate change mitigation strategies. • Excess silica in Liangshan Formation black shale is of siliceous radiolarian origin. • The Liangshan Formation reveals a semi-restricted back-arc basin environment. • Gallium correlates with terrestrial input, indicating the back-arc basin's constriction level. • Vertical variations and correlations analysis of multi-source proxies identify the local from regional processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green Infrastructure (GI) has gained recognition for its notable role in climate change mitigation and urban resilience. Meanwhile, there is a growing body of literature revealing the uneven distribution of GI from environmental justice perspective. Given the role of GI, the distribution should also be explored in a social vulnerability context and combining green and gray infrastructure. However, the distribution of GI, sewer pipelines, and their relationship with social vulnerability remain underexplored. This study fills this gap by assessing stormwater infrastructure in Washington, D.C., against a backdrop of historical discriminatory sewage practices. It investigates whether disparities exist in the distribution of sewer pipelines and green infrastructure among communities with differing social vulnerabilities, using a comprehensive approach that encompasses GI, underground pipelines, and social vulnerability. The analysis reveals significant insights into the relationships between stormwater infrastructure, social vulnerability, and urbanization, offering valuable implications for stormwater management planning. This research contributes to the field of environmental justice and urban planning by shedding light on the complex interplay between infrastructure allocation, community vulnerability, and the urgent need for equitable infrastructure management, especially stormwater and sewer systems, in the face of climate-related challenges. • The capacity of Washington, D.C.'s sewer system has not kept pace with the rapid urban development. • Statistically significant link between social vulnerability and stormwater infrastructure. • GI distribution in DC is misaligned with highest-need areas, worsening inequality with limited pipeline capacity. • Planning efforts need to address stormwater infrastructure disparities in DC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the factors that influence air passengers' intention to purchase the VCO program by applying the extended Theory of Planned Behavior. Furthermore, we examine how the influence of these factors on purchasing intention varies according to passengers' levels of environmental knowledge. We surveyed 319 individuals in Korea who have had air travel experience within the past three years and are planning future air travel. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS 25.0 and AMOS 25.0. To verify validity and reliability, we conducted confirmatory factor analysis and reliability analysis. Hypotheses were tested using a structural equation model, and the moderating effect of environmental knowledge was verified through multi-group analysis. Our findings revealed that personal norms, subjective norms, attitudes, and perceived behavioral control influence customers' intentions to purchase VCO program, in that order. Additionally, a critical aspect of our research is the multigroup analysis that demonstrates how environmental knowledge moderates the effects of attitudes and personal norms on purchase intentions. This indicates that the level of environmental awareness significantly shapes the decision-making process for participating in VCO program. Our study provides valuable insights for developing effective communication strategies to promote VCO program, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches based on individuals' environmental knowledge. This study is the first to analyze the intention to purchase voluntary carbon offset (VCO) program among Korean passengers. We conducted a comprehensive analysis based on the extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and investigated how the relative influence of each factor varies depending on the level of environmental knowledge. • This paper explores factors influencing airline passengers' intention to purchase VCO programs using the theory. • Personal norms, subjective norms, attitudes, and perceived behavioral control significantly affect purchse intentions. • The study also found that environmental knowledge moderates the impact of attitudes and personal norms on these intentions. • These findings indicate that communication tactics based on environmental awareness are critical for promoting VCO programs. • This study offers significant insights for improving airline passengers' participation in VCO activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Mediterranean forests, many species of fungi produce fruiting bodies every autumn, some of which are of great social and economic interest as NTFPs. In addition, these fungi are an essential part of the biodiversity network that ensures the proper functioning of natural ecosystems and that is currently in check due to global change. Therefore, understanding the biogeographic patterns of species-specific fungal productivity is fundamental to anticipate possible changes in the socioeconomic value of our forests and to understand the role they play in the functioning of ecosystems in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. In this study we estimate the future impact of climate change (in Catalonia region, between 2023 and 2100) on five fungal species with high socioeconomic interest in a broad bioclimatic gradient representative of the Mediterranean basin using high resolution at the landscape scale. To achieve this, we use predictive models based on machine learning algorithms and a fungal database resulting from the sampling of more than 100 permanent sampling plots over 20 years. We estimate that current and future productivity patterns differ among species, under different climate change scenarios and bioclimatic regions. Our results suggest that optimal productivity areas may be shifted to higher elevations, making those species with higher productivity at higher elevations the most affected by climate change. This would mean that some species with high socioeconomic value, such as Lactarius deliciosus and Boletus edulis , could be negatively affected in their total productivity in the study area. This study highlights the need to anticipate the potential effects of climate change on fungal productivity and in particular on high socioeconomic value species and to develop management policies oriented to maintain the important role of fungi in natural ecosystems. • We used random forest to assess biogeographical patterns in edible fungal species productivity. • Climate change will reduce annual productivity of high-elevation mushroom species. • Lower and mid-range elevation species may shift fruiting optima to higher elevations. • Climate change may reduce Lactarius deliciosus and Boletus edulis production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]