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• Hybrid bottom-up model to integrate geo-referenced and synthetic stock models. • Demonstrate multi-scale and long-term transitional workflow for commercial building stock. • Identify drivers and determinants of energy usage in the commercial building stock. • 32% cumulative performance gap if concurrent consideration of physical and technical factors is disregarded. • Introducing the unit block concept to determine minimum viable requirements. For energy modelling of commercial building stock (CBS), several methodologies were developed focusing on technology alternatives and retrofits for climate change mitigation, but they often have limitations to involve a differentiated description of practices and policies across a range of scales and sectors. This paper presents a novel hybrid model by integrating spatial and synthetic modelling approaches to facilitate the concurrent consideration of multiple building-oriented elements. The model is further implemented on Japanese building stock to demonstrate multi-scale and long-term framework for energy modelling of CBS. The results indicate the following findings: the scale choice introduces significant variability in energy consumption estimation with a relative error of 10–17% mainly depending on building geometry and plug loads; the long-term model exhibits a higher scale-bounded uncertainty in terms of energy saving potential that varies by 2–3 times when a non-representative scale is applied; disregarding physical and technical factors results in a cumulative performance gap of up to 32%; and the accuracy and extent of the model across the stock are more sensitive to technical factors, such as building system stock dynamics and the heterogeneity of HVAC systems, than physical factors. The model provides a multi-tier framework using spatial intelligence building stock approach to develop long-term energy efficiency monitoring strategies for CBS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Method was established to model building stock composition in adopted technologies. • Stock model can estimate the baseline development of building stock. • Building stock energy models can be constructed to use building stock data. • The Japanese technology deployment trend can significantly reduce CO 2 emissions. • Efficiency measures help avoid the increase in electricity demand by electrification. A significant improvement in the building stock energy efficiency is imperative to mitigate climate change. Building stock energy models (BSEMs) that employ reference building models are useful for mitigation analysis. However, most existing BSEMs developed for commercial building stock focus on limited building systems and energy conservation measures, and technology deployments are suggested based on simple vintage-driven scenarios. These approaches are insufficient, particularly for regions where improvements to building insulation performances can have a modest impact. This study aims to establish a BSEM framework to overcome this issue and to validate the framework via its application to the Japanese commercial building stock. The framework develops statistical models for estimating the selection probabilities of system alternatives and utilizes them to disaggregate building stocks. A reference building model is developed for each stock segment. The results show that this approach facilitates the use of multiple technological options considering various factors that affect technological deployments, and it also helps estimate the baseline development of building stocks. Furthermore, the developed model well represents the observed distributions in energy use intensity and estimates the aggregated energy consumption of building stocks with a reasonable accuracy. The baseline development was estimated to reduce the CO 2 emission by 18% by 2030 from 2013. Efficiency measures can help avoid the increase in electricity demand caused by electrifying the heat source of heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning and water heating systems. The framework could help extend the scope of BSEM application because BSEM development is not information intensive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many newly built, energy-efficient terraced houses are characterised by high indoor air temperatures and thermal comfort issues, because these state-of-the-art houses were designed and built without considering the warming climate conditions in the summer. As a result, many of these residential buildings are at risk of overheating and require careful implementation of passive cooling design systems when retrofitting. This study reviews the overheating risk and energy effectiveness of six passive design strategies tested and implemented in an innovative terraced house located in southeast London during the long-term heatwaves experienced in both the UK and continental Europe in the summer of 2018. A quantitative research methodology is employed based on an extensive monitoring campaign conducted to measure environmental conditions, including indoor air temperature, relative humidity and CO 2 of each occupied space in a prototype base-case building. In the subsequent phase of the research, retrofit strategies were investigated by modelling and simulation using the Integrated Environmental Solutions (IES) software suite for data validation. The preliminary results of the modelling and simulation confirmed the survey findings of high levels of occupant discomfort and relatively high cooling loads. The internal operating temperatures of the simulated rooms remained high throughout the day and night during the long-term heatwaves, ranging from a minimum of 24.7 °C to a maximum of 32.1 °C. The results highlight significant deviations in the estimated energy consumption of the base-case building as well as in the energetic and environmental indexes of the passive cooling design strategies. The study will contribute to the strategic design of retrofit interventions to effectively reduce cooling energy consumption by considering occupants' thermal comfort, thermal adaptation and energy use. Graphical abstract to this article can be found online at – The Graphical abstract illustrates the adopted and developed comprehensive methodological design approach for the study. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]