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• Implementation costs are a more relevant constraint to afforestation than opportunity costs. • Financial incentives for afforestation are constrained by market access and market prices. • Carbon-neutral and food multi-oriented land policies need further exploration. • Collaboration among global carbon markets can enhance CO 2 removal efficiency. Afforestation is a promising nature-based climate solution for mitigating climate change, but it is subject to a complex web of biophysical, cost-benefit, market, and policy processes. Although its biophysical feasibility has been established, the cost, market, and policy constraints that affect climate change mitigation through afforestation are still unclear. Here, we estimate such cost, market, and policy constraints on the basis of biophysical feasibility. Our findings reveal that implementation costs are a more relevant constraint than opportunity costs on mitigating climate change through afforestation. The China Certified Emission Reduction market currently provides only a 0.308 % incentive for climate change mitigation through afforestation, due to market access constraints. The current market prices of China Certified Emission Reduction, China Carbon Emissions Trading Exchange, and Nature Based Carbon Offset in Voluntary Carbon Market constrain 88.15 %, 87.95 %, and 85.75 % of CO 2 removal actions through afforestation, compared to the carbon price scenario (US$62.97 tCO 2 -1) of the EU Emissions Trading System. Moreover, land policy under the scenarios of prohibiting conversion of cultivated land to forest and forest restoration in degraded areas exhibit 8.87–29.59 % and 65.16–74.10 % constraints, respectively, on mitigating climate change through afforestation compared to land-use freedom conversion scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Thus, enhancing the incentive price of CO 2 removal, addressing the market access barrier, strengthening cooperation between global carbon markets, and exploring carbon–neutral and food multi-oriented land policies can be valuable sources of mitigation efforts over the next 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-increasing challenges related to water security and climate mitigation underscore the pressing need for forward-thinking systems planning tools to drive urban sustainability transitions. In this study, we propose a novel city-level multi-objective planning framework that explores the nexus between carbon trading and water management, with the aim of facilitating water-efficient urban industrial restructuring. The framework integrates cap-and-trade mechanisms into a two-layered optimization model, creating an integrated approach to optimizing carbon emissions and generating economic opportunities for improving water efficiency. To illustrate the potential application of this framework, we conducted a case study focusing on Dongguan City, a water-stressed industrial metropolis in southern China. The results illustrate potential synergies between water planning strategies and carbon trading schemes, which could be harnessed to enable targeted reductions in water usage and carbon emissions. Furthermore, our findings identify the textile, apparel, and paper products manufacturing industries as primary candidates for strategic production scale reduction, emphasizing the importance of sustained support for the development of the computer and electronic manufacturing sector as a catalyst for urban sustainability transitions. By pioneering this new nexus-based perspective, our study offers valuable insights into long-term strategic planning for a low-carbon and resource-efficient urban economy. • Synergizing carbon trading and water management within a novel integrated planning framework. • Implementing resource-efficiency-driven optimization for water- and carbon-intensive manufacturing sectors. • Gaining insights into the specific roles of key manufacturing sectors in water management and carbon trading. • Introducing carbon trading systems may help in promoting water-efficient industrial restructuring. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-level concerns about climate change can not only affect individual low-carbon behaviors but also exert intense pressure on carbon emission reduction strategies and policy design. However, whether public concern about climate change can affect per capita carbon emission is still unclear. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China and 188,943 climate change-related blogs from 2012 to 2019, this research investigates the impact of public concern on per capita carbon emissions. Results show that, in general, public concern about climate change has a significant negative impact on per capita carbon emissions in China, indicating that climate crisis awareness has a supervisory effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the effects of different public concerns on per capita carbon emissions are different, with the topics of "low-carbon appeal" and "concern for future" have significant positive impacts on per capita carbon emissions, while the topics of "carbon governance performance" and "climate change mitigation strategies" have significant negative impacts on per capita carbon emissions. The findings yield new opportunities to delve into the relationship between the externality of people's will and governmental behaviors and provide in-depth insights for decision-makers to develop tailor-made solutions towards carbon reduction and sustainable development. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a key component in mitigating global warming and achieving sustainable development strategies, wind power has received widespread attention and support from governments around the world. Numerous countries are engineering ambitious programs to map and project the mitigation potential of wind energy expansion to combat future global warming. Here, using the global installed wind capacity data, we identity that a total of 837 GW of wind energy installed capacity (WEIC) in 31 countries generated about 2186 TWh of electricity, that is 1311 Mt of CO 2 mitigation, in 2021. Considering power mix transformation, wind power could account for more than 30% of total global electricity generation by the mid-21st century, when many countries expect to realize carbon neutrality, and could reduce CO 2 emission up to 14871 Mt by 2050 and 32864 Mt by 2100. Meanwhile, the global phenomenon of the future southward shift of wind energy resources makes the wind energy development in low-latitude countries, such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Central African, more confident. Combined with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), we find that the mitigation benefits of wind energy expansion are significant and will directly reduce global warming by up to 0.64 °C by the end of the century (NZE deployment scenario, SSP3-7.0). For China and the United States, the share of renewable energy will reach 78% and 84% by 2050 (APS scenario) and the cumulative climate mitigation by wind power will be 0.12 °C and 0.11 °C during 2020–2100, respectively. The findings strongly support the development and practice of global climate mitigation energy solutions. • This study quantifies wind energy's impact on CO 2 and temperatures reduction. • Global wind energy can currently mitigate 1311 Mt CO 2 , up to 32864 Mt by 2100. • Wind energy expansion could mitigate global warming by up to 0.64 °C in 2100. • China and the U.S. lead global CO 2 reductions in wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) to anthropogenic mercury and CO 2 emissions have become increasingly important over the past decade. This study developed an inventory of anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions during the period of 2014–2020, of MSWI process in China using a bottom-up inventory at the plant level. Overall, national MSWI anthropogenic mercury emissions increased from 2014 to 2020 by province. It was estimated that total 8321.09 kg of anthropogenic mercury emissions from 548 MSWI plants were scattered in 31 provinces of mainland China in 2020. The average intensity of mercury emission in China was 0.06 g·t−1 in 2020, which was much lower than the pre-2010 level. Furthermore, the increased CO 2 emission generated by MSWI from 2014 to 2020 is 1.97 times. Anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions were concentrated mainly in developed coastal provinces and cities. The general uncertainty of national mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions was estimated to be −123% to 323% and −130% to 335%, respectively. Furthermore, future emissions were predicted from 2030 to 2060 based on different scenarios of the independent and collaborative effects of control proposals, the results indicate that the enhancement of advanced air pollution control technologies and effective management of MSWI represent pivotal factors in realizing future reductions in CO 2 and mercury emissions. The findings will supplement those for mercury and CO 2 emissions, and be useful for relevant policy-making and to improve urban air quality, as well as human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clean vehicle fleet will greatly benefit air quality and climate change mitigation. Here, we employ an integrated model to systematically investigated the contribution of combined clean vehicle policies to "emissions, exposure, and health benefits" from a regional perspective 2019–2035 in China. We find that driven by clean vehicle polices, the national vehicle CO 2 will likely to peak around 2028 with about 1327 million tons, and then reduce by 7.8% from 2028 to 2035. The developed region will peak CO 2 before 2030, while the developing region probably peak after 2030. In general, most air pollutants emissions from vehicles will decrease, subsequently leading to obvious PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure decrease. About 68 thousand PM 2.5 related and 33 thousand O 3 related deaths will be avoided 2019–2035 nationwide. Note that the health benefits are unequal, with higher PM 2.5 -O 3 related excess deaths be avoided per 100000 in developed region than developing region. Besides, results show that emission standard upgrade contributes largest to emission reduction and related health benefits, followed by electric vehicles, road-to-railways and waterways, and fuel consumption regulation in general. This work is able to provide valuable information for policy makers to collaboratively reduce CO 2 , air pollutants and premature deaths in China and other developing countries. [Display omitted] • Emissions in CO 2 and air pollutants were both investigated based on a dataset with 27 vehicle categories from 338 cities. • The contribution of vehicle clean policies to abated PM 2.5 -O 3 exposure and related deaths was quantified and decomposed. • This work proposed region-specific clean vehicle pathways from a national and regional perspective 2019-2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle-class expansion has played a crucial role in driving the changes in embodied carbon emissions. However, its driving mechanisms still need to be clarified. In this paper, we compiled novel multiregional input-output tables to capture the rise of the middle class in China in terms of its expansion and consumption pattern changes. Structural path analysis was employed to investigate the critical paths of embodied carbon emissions from middle classes of different regions in China during 2012–2015. Structural path decomposition was further used to explore the driving factors along the paths, including changes in population size, consumption patterns, industrial structure, and carbon intensity. Our results show that, from 2012 to 2015, the role of the middle class in driving carbon emissions through the most critical paths was either enhanced or reduced depending on different factorial changes. Generally, the paths with enhanced roles of the middle class stemmed from the urban and rural middle classes in Central China, Southwestern Coastal, and Northern Coastal regions, and the changes in consumption patterns and population of the urban middle class were the main driving factors. The top 30 paths of carbon emissions growth driven by the urban and rural middle classes approximately increase 19.5 Mt and 8 Mt of carbon emissions, respectively. In contrast, most of the paths with the weakened role of the middle class were intraregional paths in the Southern Coastal and Eastern Coastal regions, and carbon intensity was the dominant factor governing the changes. Our analysis systematically revealed, for the first time, the heterogeneous impacts and driving factors of middle-class expansion in different regions of China on carbon emissions. Therefore, it provides new insights for climate mitigation in the context of China's plan to cultivate a majority middle-class society. • New multiregional input-output tables are compiled for the rise of the middle class in China. • Middle-class expansion has heterogeneous effects on regional carbon emissions. • Urban and rural middle class lead to an incease of 19.5 and 8 Mt CO2 for top 30 paths, respectively. • Four driving factors play different roles in supply chains affecting carbon emissions. • Consumption patterns and urban middle-class size changes were the main driving factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to contribute to climate change mitigation, China has committed to achieving its peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. However, reaching these goals will require a massive reduction in carbon emissions. The humans have to consume food to meet their survival needs. Furthermore, the society's demand for food is consistent with the development level of agricultural structures. At present, reducing environmental costs associated with food to adjust the agricultural structure has not received sufficient scientific attention. Because of this, the present study combines food consumption, climate change, and agricultural structure to design future scenarios based on the widely used SSP storyline. Moreover, in order for China to reach its carbon peak in 2030, this study applies a life-cycle approach to uncover the potential carbon reduction of Chinese residents under different dietary structures. From a demand perspective, this study puts forward recommendations for dietary restructuring and guides the direction of future agricultural restructuring in China. It also shows that a diet structure that replaces red meat with plant foods such as vegetables and fruits will have a more significant carbon reduction potential. The traditional agricultural structure consumes a large amount of food and produces a significant amount of greenhouse gases. Reducing meat and high-fat foods consumption may help reduce GHG emissions produced by food consumption. In addition, reducing the proportion of food used for feeding in the agricultural structure will also help achieve peak carbon targets. The shift in diet structure will advance China's agricultural structure and promote green agriculture development. • Food consumption and related carbon emissions within the 2030 scenario will continue to increase, with the highest share of rice consumption. • The carbon emissions of food consumption in the environmentally sustainable scenario will decrease. • Readjusting toward a more balanced diet could significantly contribute to the carbon peak goal. • A shift in dietary structure will promote agricultural restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study developed a climatic-economic-technological integrated assessment model named CIECIA-TD-F. Based on model, the implementation effects of low carbon technology financing on climate mitigation, technology promotion, and economic development in the context of climate change cooperation were studied. The results indicate that carbon reduction, under the current pledged climate financing scale, is limited. Global surface warming in 2100 is still around 2.38 °C even when the technologies are globally shared. Low carbon technology financing improves technology R&D and absorptive capacities of the least developed countries. Their carbon reduction rates reach 50 percent under the capacity principle. However, donations impair the R&D inputs of developed countries and delay their advanced technological progress, leading to 1 percent more carbon emissions. This limits the imitations of China and Russia in turn by decreasing their imitation numbers by 1–2 percent. Collecting 800 billion USD per year from 2030 to 2100 is a climatically effective means. It holds global warming to 1.99 °C. However, the donors suffer more than 1 percent of economic losses. That indicates the economic feasibility of this means is weak. On this basis, we proposed a Pareto-improvement scheme which combines financing with technology sharing and national R&D improvements. This policy mix both achieves the 2 °C goal and protect the economic benefits of all countries. Thus, policy mix combining different measures will be more suitable for improving reduction effects and achieving multiple goals. Compared with sole technology financing, it has more significant global carbon governance meanings and is noteworthy in future climate negotiations. • Nine combinations of typical collection and dispensation principles were assessed. • The current scale of climate financing pledge was insufficient. • 2 °C goal can be achieved by improving financing scale dramatically in short term. • Advanced technology innovation was delayed for the economic losses of the funding donors. • A Pareto improving scheme was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for global climate mitigation. To implement large-scale CCUS, decisions about where and how to build a CO 2 transportation network are urgently required. However, previous studies are limited in proposing the economical transportation network for CCUS that considered comprehensive risks from socio-economic, geographical and geological factors. Here, we develop a pipeline layout planning model to investigate the cost-effective and reliable transportation network for CCUS. Results show that to meet the annual CO 2 emission reduction target of 654 million tons for CCUS in the coal-fired power sector under China's carbon neutral goal, pipelines with a total length of 17,589 km need to be constructed. The emission sources can be transported in pipelines with an average radius of 58 km, and with diameters of 8, 12, and 16 inches. Northeast, north, and northwest China are the main areas suitable for pipeline construction. • Northeast, North, and Northwest in China are vital areas for capture, transport, and storage. • Five large-scale pipeline network groups can be constructed in China. • Pipeline construction is greatly affected by a variety of practical factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for global climate mitigation. To implement large-scale CCUS, decisions about where and how to build a CO 2 transportation network are urgently required. However, previous studies are limited in proposing the economical transportation network for CCUS that considered comprehensive risks from socio-economic, geographical and geological factors. Here, we develop a pipeline layout planning model to investigate the cost-effective and reliable transportation network for CCUS. Results show that to meet the annual CO 2 emission reduction target of 654 million tons for CCUS in the coal-fired power sector under China's carbon neutral goal, pipelines with a total length of 17,589 km need to be constructed. The emission sources can be transported in pipelines with an average radius of 58 km, and with diameters of 8, 12, and 16 inches. Northeast, north, and northwest China are the main areas suitable for pipeline construction. • Northeast, North, and Northwest in China are vital areas for capture, transport, and storage. • Five large-scale pipeline network groups can be constructed in China. • Pipeline construction is greatly affected by a variety of practical factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, the world's largest CO 2 emitter, is making every effort to transition to a low-carbon economy and fulfill its part of a concerted global commitment to combating climate change. In tandem with decarbonizing energy and industries, feasible supplementary measures are urgently needed to help remove anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. A burgeoning literature has emphasized the CO 2 removal capability of land re-naturalization (such as afforestation and wetland restoration), thereby regarding cognate land-use conversions as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and potential climate policy options. However, little empirical evidence exists concerning the effectiveness of different land re-naturalization pathways (such as converting wetlands to forests or agricultural lands to grasslands), and it also remains unclear how NbS alternatives (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in negative CO 2 emission) and non-NbS options (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in positive CO 2 emission) could affect the social cost of carbon (SCC), a conventional measurement for prescribing carbon mitigation approaches. This study aims to fill in this knowledge gap via embedding NbS into the dynamic integrated climate-economics (DICE) model to quantify their impacts on the SCC. Using the Pearl River Delta region (south China) as a case study for the temporal horizon during 2000–2020, we find that both positive and negative CO 2 fluxes have been brought by different natural/semi-natural land conversions, affecting the SCC correspondingly. A total of 7 out of 17 types of land-use conversions could be identified as feasible NbS interventions, including forest restoration, forest-to-wetland, grassland-to-forest, grassland-to-wetland, grassland-to-cropland, cropland-to-forest, and cropland-to-wetland conversions, which could reduce the SCC values (comparing 2020 base-year with 2000 base-year) by 0.0132, 0.0009, 0.0033, 0.0030, 0.0001, 0.0082, and 0.0001 (USD/tCO 2), respectively. While the SCC is mainly determined by energy and industrial structure, the overall effect of NbS is larger than the sum of land urbanization and non-NbS land-use conversions. Via embedding the real-world inter-dynamics of land-use conversions into the SCC quantification, this study presents a pioneer assessment of the impacts of NbS on the SCC in an integrated framework, sheds important insights into the effectiveness of NbS, and offers practical implications for policy-makers to devise comprehensive policies covering all feasible CO 2 abatement options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • TUEEC in 10 urban agglomerations in China are substantially different. • TUEEC within urban agglomeration have an impact on CO 2 emissions. • Ecological construction partially mitigated emissions growth. • Guarding against unsustainable development is vital to carbon neutral. Urban agglomerations are major generators of CO 2 emissions owing to human socioeconomic activities. Evaluating the trade-offs between urban expansion and ecological construction during rapid urbanization is a crucial step towards climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality. This study investigated the impacts of trade-offs between urban expansion and ecological construction on CO 2 emissions using multi-source data and spatial and statistical analysis. Ten urban agglomerations in China, with various development levels, were selected as study areas. The results indicated that (1) urban development in the 10 urban agglomerations expanded by 90%–288.9%, while ecological land changed by −28.1–2.3%. (2) CO 2 emissions grew by 154.2–291.2% in urban agglomerations, and the south and east of China emitted more CO 2. The high-value clusters of CO 2 inside of all urban agglomerations expanded outward from cities. (3) Urban expansion increased emissions, while ecological construction partially mitigated emissions growth. Moreover, ecological development within cities helps to reduce excessive urban emissions and should be given more attention. (4) It is as important to guard against unsustainable development as it is to reduce existing high emissions. Low-carbon development paths must continue to be supported in western China. On the basis of the results, we identify important implications for meeting China's target of carbon neutrality. These contribute to an understanding of future development modes for urban agglomerations and reveal the impact of trade-offs of land use on CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving the carbon neutral targets before year 2060 is one of the important commitments for mitigating global climate change by Chinese government. However, the manner in which one would maximize the carbon sequestration of the planted forests is still unclear. Estimating accurately the carbon balance in forestry depends highly on the dynamics of numerous delay-released carbon pools (e.g., harvest residues, wood products), thus the strategies used to account for the carbon emissions of these components may have great influences on the decision-making and profitability associated with planted forests. This study developed a tool that allows forest managers and policy makers to analyze the effects of alternative accounting strategies for recognizing carbon emissions on the optimal rotation lengths and profitability of planted forests. The considered carbon balance not only refers to the within-forest pools, e.g., living biomass, harvest residues, annually generated litters and dead trees, but also refers to the outside-forest pools that include wood products, biofuel, operating process and substitution effect. The obtained results indicated that the lengths of optimal forest rotation decreased significantly with increases in site index, planting density and discount rate, while they increased dramatically with increases of carbon price. The gaps in rotation lengths were as large as 13.5 years, 6.9 years, 27.6 years and 11.0 years, respectively for the ranges of site index (10–18 m), planting density (2500–4444 trees per hectare), discount rate (1%–5%), and carbon prices (0–880 CNY/ton CO 2) assumed. The effects of delay-released carbon pools on the optimal rotation lengths were not significant, when the substitution effects of wood products and biofuels were considered under the current carbon trading markets; however, some exceptions were observed when a very high carbon price (880 CNY/ton CO 2) was assumed. [Display omitted] • A management tool that considers carbon balance and wood production was developed. • The optimal rotations are sensitive to forest- and economic-based variables. • The delayed effects of carbon emissions on optimal rotations were offset by substitution effects. • Pricing CO 2 sequestrated in forests can increase optimal rotations and profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A bi-level joint-probabilistic programming approach is developed. • It can handle leader–follower issues and joint-probabilistic constraints. • The proposed approach is applied to China's multi-regional energy system model. • The optimal schemes during 2021–2050 under three mitigation scenarios are obtained. • Results are helpful to achieve low-carbon goals in multi-regional energy system. Climate change mitigation and renewable resources utilization are becoming particularly urgent for energy system management. In this study, a bi-level joint-probabilistic programming (BJPP) method is developed for planning multi-regional energy system under different mitigation policies and uncertainties. BJPP can handle leader–follower issues in decision-making process as well as examine the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Based on the BJPP method, a China's multi-regional energy system (named as BJPP_CMES) model is formulated to provide optimal scheme for energy system planning of China over a long-term horizon (2021–2050) by synergistically minimizing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission and system cost. A series of scenarios associated with different carbon capture and storage (CCS) levels and violation risks of energy-demand constraints are examined. Results reveal that: (i) the share of non-fossil energy in China's energy supply would keep increasing in 2021–2050, and the highest growth of the renewable supply would occur in Ningxia (rising 47.7%); (ii) Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu would be the top three suppliers of renewable electricity; (iii) the CO 2 emission of China would reach a peak of [44.3, 54.8] billion tonnes during the period of 2026–2030; Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi would be main contributors of CO 2 emission in the future; (iv) compared with the single-level model, the CO 2 emission from the BJPP_CMES model would reduce by [2.7, 5.7]%; (v) among developed regions, the individual probability level of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai is the most significant parameter for both CO 2 emission and system cost. The findings are helpful for decision makers to optimize multi-regional energy system (MES) with a low-carbon and cost-effective manner, as well as to provide useful information for renewable energy utilization and regional sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]