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This paper studies the biomass–coal co-firing (BCC) production planning problem under the carbon emission quota allocation (CEQA) mechanism. However, carbon emission parameters are uncertain due to many factors, such as the type of power units and coal quality. To address this challenge issue, this paper proposes a new globalized robust bi-level optimization model, where the uncertain parameters are characterized by a pair of uncertainty sets. In the proposed model, the upper government as the leader decides the CEQA mechanism, while the lower power plants as the followers develop the production planning according to the given CEQA mechanism. Moreover, based on the Lagrange duality theory and Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions, the proposed model is equivalently converted into a computationally tractable single-level model. Finally, a practical case study in Shandong Province demonstrates that compared with the nominal bi-level and robust bi-level models, the proposed optimization model can not only effectively resist parameter uncertainty, but also be less conservative. [Display omitted] • A bi-level GRO model for BCC production planning problem under CEQA mechanism is proposed. • The uncertain carbon emission parameters are characterized by a pair of uncertainty sets. • The established globalized robust counterpart is transformed equivalently into a finite convex system. • The effectiveness of the developed GRO approach is verified via a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combined heat and power is an inevitable trend in the development of waste-to-power industry. Many waste incineration power generation projects that have already put into operation in China are waiting for transition and upgrading to combined heat and power projects. From a growth option perspective, this paper considers the irreversible process and uncertainty in economic benefits, introduces carbon emission trading mechanism and develops the growth option theory to design the expansion decision making model of waste-to-energy combined heat and power projects, so as to obtain the project value and find the optimal expansion timing. In this paper, a case study is carried out on the expansion decision making of a waste-to-energy combined heat and power project in Shandong Province in China. And two scenarios with specific and flexible expansion times are developed from European and American options separately, as European options require investors to expand at a certain time but American options not. The results indicate that 1) real option approach successfully improves the project value through considering uncertainty, and American option can achieve the optimal expansion time, 2) under the carbon emission trading mechanism, the carbon price affects the expansion index, which has a positive effect on the project value, 3) the linear nature of the income and cost expansion index can help investors make judgments on expansion investments. The effectiveness of the case study implies the practicality of the expansion option method for similar projects to reach dual carbon targets in cost and benefit analysis. • Real option approach is applied in energy transition in WTECHP projects. • European and American options are proposed for certain and flexible decision times. • Expansion time and triggers of WTECHP are incorporated into life cycle management. • CCER is introduced as an environmental element to evaluate expansion decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Carbon emissions are explored in China's building operations from provincial perspective. • GDIM is employed to factorize ten affecting factors of CO 2 emissions in building sub-sectors. • CO 2 emissions of building sub-sectors are predicted with dynamic simulation. • The contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed. Carbon emissions from building operations have a critical impact on achieving carbon peaking goal in China. However, the provincial emission performance in building operations are quite different and it is still unidentified how they affect the national emission change and peaking target, making national emission reduction target hard to implement at the provincial level. This paper explores the driving factors leading to emission changes and examines the prospective emission peaks in China and China's provinces by adopting generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) and the combination of scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the regional emission heterogeneity and the contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed to identify regions and provinces that should be focused on emission monitoring. Results show that in China and most Chinese provinces, energy consumption of commercial buildings, energy consumption and floor space of urban residential buildings besides income improvement, and the per capita CO 2 emissions of rural residential buildings contributed greatly to emission growth. Under current policies, commercial and urban residential buildings in most provinces would fail to reach their emission peaks ahead of schedule. The urban residential buildings in the northern region, commercial and rural residential buildings in the eastern region caused higher CO 2 emissions. At the provincial level, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei made the top contribution to total emissions of commercial, urban residential and rural residential buildings, respectively. Shandong and the provinces in north China of urban residential buildings and four provinces including Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Zhejiang of commercial and rural residential buildings had the significant impact on the uncertainty of the peaking time of CO 2 emissions. These findings provide a strong decision-making reference for Chinese government to formulate targeted regional emission reduction policies in building operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting the low-carbon development of the power sector is an important means for China to achieve the emissions peak and carbon neutralization targets, while the rational allocation of emission reduction responsibility is the prerequisite for low-carbon electricity. This paper proposes a two-level mechanism to allocate CO 2 emission reduction responsibilities based on the principles of fairness, efficiency and sustainability. First, a graph game model considering the distribution of regional resources and mutual cooperation is established to initially allocate national emission reduction responsibilities to 8 regions in 2019. Then, taking the inter-provincial transfer of CO 2 emissions into consideration, the Game-theory combination weighting method is used to allocate the regional responsibilities to corresponding provinces. The results show that the Southwest has the least responsibility (−0.24%), while the North and East are responsible for +28.66% and +26.64%, respectively. At provincial level, Inner Mongolia (+10.13%), Shandong (+8.56%), Jiangsu (+8.16%) and Hebei (+7.12%) have a greater responsibility for emission reduction, while the provinces with the least responsibility are Chongqing (−0.06%) and Sichuan (−0.18%). To further explore how the responsibility will change in the future and what can be improved for each province, three scenarios are set up to allocate the responsibility in 2025, 2035 and 2050, and highlight the changes during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. If the growth rate of power demand increases, the responsibility of Northwest (+0.89%) will increase most compared to BAU, among which Xinjiang (+0.26%) and Ningxia (+0.23%) with low efficiency and unclean power generation will significantly bear more responsibilities. If the non-fossil growth rate increases, the large-scale electricity consumers such as East (+0.27%) and North (+0.25%) will show the largest change, with Jiangsu and Shandong account for +0.09% and +0.08%, respectively. • Consider the actual transmission situation of China's power grid and the transfer of embodied CO 2 emission. • Propose a two-level mechanism to allocate CO 2 emission reduction responsibilities. • Set up three scenarios to explore how responsibility will change in the future and what can be improved for provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integrated energy system which coordinates natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy subsystems is an effective way to promote a low-carbon economy. An effective framework for system assessment and optimisation is a critical issue. This paper takes a natural gas-wind-photovoltaic integrated energy system as the research object and uses the simulation software to analyse its techno-enviro-economic feasibility. Firstly, a mathematical model is customised to optimise the system installation and operation plans. Renewable electricity replaces some natural gas, resulting in pipeline pressure fluctuation. Here, the Stoner Pipeline Simulator software is used to simulate pipeline network operation to quantify the aforementioned pressure fluctuations. The proportion of renewable energy is gradually reduced until the network pressure fluctuation is less than 20% to ensure the stability of pipeline operation. Then, the optimal operation scheme can be determined. Taking three cities in Shandong, China, as cases, the results show that the proposed system is beneficial for urban energy internet development: (i) the total net present cost is reduced by 19.7%, 19.8%, and 20.8%, (ii) annual CO 2 emission is reduced by 23.7%, 18.4%, and 12.2%; (iii) the levelised cost of energy is 0.142 $/kWh, 0.143$/kWh, and 0.153$/kWh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]