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【Objective】According to the demand of scientific layout of cotton planting for climate change, the study used the species distribution model to quantitatively simulate the suitable distribution of cotton in Manas River basin and its possible response to future climate change, which helps understand the ecological suitability and environmental driving mechanism of cotton planting in arid basin.【Method】The study integrated GIS spatial analysis and MaxEnt model, using 61 cotton planting records and a total of 8 environmental factors screened by R software, and analyzed the suitable distribution range and spatial distribution characteristics of cotton in Manas River basin during the period of reference climate（1970-2000） and 2040 period（SSP245 scenario）. The contribution value of environmental factors, replacement importance value and jackknife method were used to quantitatively analyze the key environmental factors affecting cotton distribution. 【Result】（i） Under the reference climate, the moderate and the most suitable distribution areas of cotton accounted for 9.64% and 12.19% of the total area of the basin, mainly distributed in oasis area of 44°-45° north latitude, including 132, 133, 141 and 144 regiments in Shawan county, 149 and 150 regiments in Manas county, Jiahezi Reservoir and Yuejin Reservoir, and 136 regiment in Shihezi city, southern Kuytun city, northern Wusu city and northeast Karamay city;（ii）Mean diurnal range of temperature, soil pH and solar radiation were key factors affecting the suitable distribution of cotton in the basin, with a cumulative contribution rate of 74.4%. The value ranges of the three factors in the suitable distribution areas were 0.50-13.0 ℃, 5.7-8.7 and 1377-1530 KJ/（m².day）;（iii） Compared with the reference climate, the cotton suitable areas showed a significant trend of decreasing and increasing fragmentation during 2040 period, but the overall decreasing area accounted for 1.5% of the total area of the basin, and decreased to the southern and northwestern of the oasis area of Shawan county, the northeastern Karamay city, Manas county and the south edge of the oasis area of Kuytun city.【Conclusion】The results have great significance for scientific layout of crop planting and stable development in arid basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]