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Background Precision in estimating placebo rates is important for clinical trial design. Aim To quantify placebo rates across relevant endpoints in Crohn's disease [CD] trials and identify the factors influencing these rates in a contemporary meta-analysis. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL from inception to March 2021. Eligible studies were placebo-controlled trials of pharmacological interventions for CD. Placebo response and remission rates for induction and maintenance trials were extracted and pooled by random-effects to quantify placebo rates across studies. Mixed-effects meta-regression was used to evaluate the effects of study-level characteristics on placebo rates. Results In 125 studies [91 induction, 46 maintenance], placebo clinical remission and response rates for induction studies were 18% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16, 21%], and 32% [95% CI 29, 35%], respectively, and for maintenance studies were 28% [95% CI 23, 34%] and 30% [95% CI 24, 37%], respectively. Endoscopic remission and response rates in induction studies were 8% [95% CI 4, 18%] and 16% [95% CI 11, 23%], respectively. Trials enrolling patients with prior biologic exposure, longer disease duration, and higher CD activity index scores were associated with lower placebo clinical remission rates. Increased duration of follow-up, more follow-up visits, and a greater proportion of patients with colonic disease distribution were associated with higher clinical placebo rates. Conclusions Placebo remission and response rates in CD trials vary according to the phase of the trial, endpoint assessed, and induction or maintenance design. These contemporary estimates will help to inform future CD trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Quantifying placebo rates and the factors influencing them are essential to inform trial design. We provide a contemporary summary of clinical, endoscopic, histological and safety placebo rates in induction and maintenance clinical trials of ulcerative colitis, and identify factors influencing them. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library were searched from April 2014 to April 2020, updating a prior meta-analysis that searched from inception to April 2014. We included placebo-controlled trials of aminosalicylates, corticosteroids, immunosuppressives, small-molecules and biologics in adults with ulcerative colitis. Placebo rates were pooled using random-effects and mixed-effects meta-regression models to assess the associated study-level. Results In 119 trials [92 induction, 27 maintenance] clinical, endoscopic and histological remission placebo rates for induction trials were 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9–13%), 19% [95% CI 15–23%] and 15% [95% CI 11–19%], respectively; for maintenance trials, clinical and endoscopic placebo remission rates were 18% [95% CI 12–25%] and 20% [95% CI 15–25%], respectively. Higher endoscopic subscore and a higher rate of exposure to prior biologic therapy at enrolment were associated with lower clinical and endoscopic placebo remission rates. Absence of central reading was associated with an increase in placebo endoscopic response and remission rates. More follow-up visits and increasing trial duration were associated with higher clinical placebo rates. Conclusions Placebo rates in ulcerative colitis trials vary according to the endpoint assessed, whether it is for assessment of response or remission, and whether the trial is designed for induction or maintenance. These contemporary rates across different endpoints and drug classes will help to inform trial design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patient-centred interventions to help patients with multimorbidity have had mixed results.Aim: To assess the effectiveness of a provider-created, patient-centred, multi-provider case conference with follow-up, and understand under what circumstances it worked, and did not work.Design and Setting: Mixed-methods design with a pragmatic randomised trial and qualitative study, involving nine urban primary care sites in Ontario, Canada.Method: Patients aged 18-80 years with ≥3 chronic conditions were referred to the Telemedicine IMPACT Plus intervention; a nurse and patient planned a multi-provider case conference during which a care plan could be created. The patients were randomised into an intervention or control group. Two subgroup analyses and a fidelity assessment were conducted, with the primary outcomes at 4 months being self-management and self-efficacy. Secondary outcomes were mental and physical health status, quality of life, and health behaviours. A thematic analysis explored the patients' experiences of the intervention.Results: A total of 86 patients in the intervention group and 77 in the control group showed no differences, except that the intervention improved mental health status in the subgroup with an annual income of ≥C$50 000 (β-coefficient 11.003, P = 0.006). More providers and follow-up hours were associated with poorer outcomes. Five themes were identified in the qualitative study: valuing the team, patients feeling supported, receiving a follow-up plan, being offered new and helpful additions to their treatment regimen, and experiencing positive outcomes.Conclusion: Overall, the intervention showed improvements only for patients who had an annual income of ≥C$50 000, implying a need to address the costs of intervention components not covered by existing health policies. Findings suggest a need to optimise team composition by revising the number and type of providers according to patient preferences and to enhance the hours of nurse follow-up to better support the patient in carrying out the case conference's recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and purpose: Cognitive enhancers are commonly prescribed to people with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias to improve cognition and function. However, their effectiveness for individuals in the pre‐stages of dementia, particularly in functional motor outcomes, remains unknown. We aimed to determine the efficacy of donepezil, a cognitive enhancer that improves cholinergic neurotransmission, on gait performance in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: This was a double‐blind, placebo‐controlled trial including 60 older adults with MCI, randomized to receive donepezil (10 mg/daily, maximal dose) or placebo. Primary outcome was gait speed (cm/s) under single and three dual‐task conditions (counting backwards by 1 or 7 and naming animals) measured using an electronic walkway. Dual‐task gait cost (DTC), a valid measure of motor–cognitive interaction, was calculated as the percentage change between single (S) and dual‐task (D) gait speeds: [(S − D)/S] × 100. Secondary outcomes included attention, executive function, balance and falls. Results: After 6 months, the donepezil group experienced an improvement in dual‐task gait speed (range 4–11 cm/s), although this was not statistically significant. The donepezil group showed a significant reduction in DTC (improvement) by counting backwards by 1 and 7 compared with placebo (10.25% vs. 1.75%, P = 0.048; 21.38% vs. 14.64%, P = 0.037, intention‐to‐treat analysis). Per‐protocol analyses showed that all three DTCs improved in the donepezil group, along with a non‐significant reduction of rate of falls. Conclusions: Donepezil treatment improved dual‐task gait speed and DTC in elderly patients with MCI. Our results support the concept of reducing falls in MCI by targeting the motor–cognitive interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Double-sampling schemes using one classifier assessing the whole sample and another classifier assessing a subset of the sample have been introduced for reducing classification errors when an infallible or gold standard classifier is unavailable or impractical. Inference procedures have previously been proposed for situations where an infallible classifier is available for validating a subset of the sample that has already been classified by a fallible classifier. Here, we consider the case where both classifiers are fallible, proposing and evaluating several confidence interval procedures for a proportion under two models, distinguished by the assumption regarding ascertainment of two classifiers. Simulation results suggest that the modified Wald-based confidence interval, Score-based confidence interval, two Bayesian credible intervals, and the percentile Bootstrap confidence interval performed reasonably well even for small binomial proportions and small validated sample under the model with the conditional independent assumption, and the confidence interval derived from the Wald test with nuisance parameters appropriately evaluated, likelihood ratio-based confidence interval, Score-based confidence interval, and the percentile Bootstrap confidence interval performed satisfactory in terms of coverage under the model without the conditional independent assumption. Moreover, confidence intervals based on log- and logit-transformations also performed well when the binomial proportion and the ratio of the validated sample are not very small under two models. Two examples were used to illustrate the procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study was conducted to determine effects of dietary Fe levels on growth performance, hepatic lipid metabolism and antioxidant response for juvenile yellow catfish Pelteobagrus fulvidraco. Yellow catfish were fed six isonitrogenous and isolipidic diets containing Fe levels of 16.20, 34.80, 54.50, 76.44, 100.42 and 118.25 mg/kg for 8 weeks. Weight gain ( WG) and specific growth rate ( SGR) increased with dietary Fe levels from 16.20 to 54.50 mg/kg diet and then plateaued over the level. Feed conversion rate ( FCR) was highest and protein efficiency rate ( PER) was lowest for fish fed the lowest Fe levels of diet. Fe contents in whole body and liver increased with increasing dietary Fe levels. Hepatic lipid content was lowest, but mRNA levels of carnitine palmitoyltransferase ( CPT-1) and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α ( PPARα) were highest for fish fed 54.50 mg Fe/kg diet. Fish fed adequate dietary Fe levels reduced hepatic malondialdehyde ( MDA) level and increased activities of antioxidant enzymes Superoxide dismutase ( SOD), Catalase ( CAT) and GS. Based on the broken-line regression analysis of WG against dietary Fe levels, optimal dietary Fe requirement for yellow catfish was 55.73 mg Fe/kg diets. Fe-induced changes in MDA levels and antioxidant enzymatic activities paralleled with the change in hepatic lipid content, suggesting the potential relationship between oxidative stress and hepatic lipid accumulation in yellow catfish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Although low infliximab trough concentrations and antibodies to infliximab (ATI) are associated with poor outcomes in patients with Crohn's disease (CD), the clinical relevance of ATI in patients with adequate infliximab concentrations is uncertain. We evaluated this question using an assay sensitive for identification of ATI in the presence of infliximab. Design: In an observational study, 1487 trough serum samples from 483 patients with CD who participated in four clinical studies of maintenance infliximab therapy were analysed using a fluid phase mobility shift assay. Infliximab and ATI concentrations most discriminant for remission, defined as a C-reactive protein concentration of ≤5 mg/L, were determined by receiver operating characteristic curves. A multivariable regression model evaluated these factors as independent predictors of remission. Results: Based upon analysis of 1487 samples, 77.1% of patients had detectable and 22.9% had undetectable infliximab concentrations, of which 9.5% and 71.8%, respectively, were positive for ATI. An infliximab concentration of >2.79 µg/mL (area under the curve (AUC)=0.681; 95% CI 0.632 to 0.731) and ATI concentration of <3.15 U/mL (AUC=0.632; 95% CI 0.589 to 0.676) were associated with remission. Multivariable analysis showed that concentrations of both infliximab trough (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3 to 2.5; p<0.001) and ATI (OR 0.57; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.81; p=0.002) were independent predictors of remission. Conclusions: The development of ATI increases the probability of active disease even at low concentrations and in the presence of a therapeutic concentration of drug during infliximab maintenance therapy. Evaluation of strategies to prevent ATI formation, including therapeutic drug monitoring with selective infliximab dose intensification, is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Phase 2 trials are fundamental to the rational and efficient design of phase 3 trials. We aimed to determine the relationship of treatment effect size estimates from phase 2 and phase 3 clinical trials on advanced therapeutics in inflammatory bowel disease., Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and the Cochrane library were searched from inception to December 19, 2022, to identify paired phase 2 and 3 placebo-controlled induction studies of advanced therapeutics for Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Treatment effect sizes were expressed as a risk ratio (RR) between the active arm and placebo arm. For the same therapeutics, RRs from phase 2 trials were divided by the RR from phase 3 trial to quantify the relationship of effect sizes between phases., Results: Twenty-two studies (9 phase 2 trials, 13 phase 3 trials) were included for CD and 30 studies (12 phase 2 trials, 18 phase 3 trials) for UC. In UC (pooled RR 0.72; 95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.86; RR <1 indicates smaller treatment effect sizes in phase 2 trials), but not CD (pooled RR 1.01; 95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.18), phase 2 trials systematically underestimated treatment effect sizes for the primary endpoint compared with phase 3 trials. The underestimation was observed for clinical, but not endoscopic, endpoints in UC., Discussion: Treatment effect sizes for the primary and clinical endpoints were similar across clinical trial phases in CD, but not UC, where only endoscopic endpoints were comparable. This will help inform clinical development plans and future trial design., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The American College of Gastroenterology.)

Objective: To explore the association between genetic variants of matrix metalloproteinase enzyme 2 (MMP2) gene and the blood pressure of children and adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed in 2016 and included 4 155 children and adolescents in the urban area of Guangzhou. Physical examinations (including body height, weight, and blood pressure), questionnaires (including general characteristics, physical exercise, parental educational level, household income, etc.), and blood sampling were performed. Multivariable linear regression models were used to investigate the associations of MMP2 genetic variations (rs243865, rs7201) and the genetic risk score (GRS) level with standardized blood pressure. Mediating effect of standardized body mass index (BMI) was further assessed by process analysis in the association between GRS level and blood pressure, and potential additive interaction between physical activity and GRS level was analyzed using the product term in the regression model. Results: A total of 4 155 primary and secondary schoolchildren were finally included in the analysis, consisting of 1 401 (33.7%) second grade pupils of primary school, 1 422 (34.2%) first grade pupils of middle school, and 1 332 (32.1%) first-grade students of senior high school. After adjusting for age, sex, parental educational level, and family income, as compared to the rs243865 TT genotype, the CC/CT genotype increased diastolic blood pressure (DBP) by 0.461 standard deviations ( SD ) ( β for dominant model=0.461, 95% CI 0.199-0.723). When compared to the rs7201 CC genotype, the AA/AC genotype showed 0.147 SD higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) ( β for recessive model=0.147, 95% CI 0.014-0.279) and 0.171 SD increased DBP ( β for recessive model=0.171, 95% CI 0.039-0.304). For each increment of GRS level, SBP and DBP increased by 0.151 SD ( β for dominant model=0.151, 95% CI 0.029-0.272) and 0.242 SD ( β =0.242, 95% CI 0.120-0.363), respectively. The mediating effect of BMI accounted for 28.3% and 12.6% of the total effect of GRS on SBP and DBP, respectively. After controlling BMI, the direct effect of GRS on DBP remained statistically significant ( P <0.001). The insufficient moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (<0.5 h/d) showed a significant interaction with GRS on SBP under additive scale ( β for interaction=0.518, 95% CI 0.088-0.949, P =0.018). Conclusions: rs243865 and rs7201 variants in MMP2 gene are associated with the elevated blood pressure of children and adolescents. Obesity may yield a mediation role in the associations, while insufficient physical activity may have a positively additive interaction with MMP2 genetic variants.

Background & Aims: As more treatment options for inflammatory bowel diseases become available, it is important to identify patients most likely to respond to different therapies. We created and validated a scoring system to identify patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who respond to vedolizumab., Methods: We collected data from the GEMINI 2 phase 3 trial of patients with active CD treated with vedolizumab for 26 weeks (n = 814) and performed logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with clinical, steroid-free, and durable remission (derivation set). We used these data to develop a clinical decision support tool, which we validated using data from 366 participants in a separate clinical practice observational cohort of patients with active CD treated with vedolizumab for 26 weeks (the VICTORY cohort). We evaluated the ability of this tool to identify patients in clinical remission or corticosteroid-free remission, or those with mucosal healing (MH), clinical remission with MH, or corticosteroid-free remission with MH after vedolizumab therapy using receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) analyses. The primary outcome was to develop and validate a list of factors associated with achieving remission by vedolizumab in patients with active CD., Results: In the derivation analysis, we identified absence of previous treatment with a tumor necrosis factor antagonist (+3 points), absence of prior bowel surgery (+2 points), absence of prior fistulizing disease (+2 points), baseline level of albumin (+0.4 points per g/L), and baseline concentration of C-reactive protein (reduction of 0.5 points for values between 3.0 and 10.0 mg/L and 3.0 points for values >10.0 mg/L) as factors associated with remission. In the validation set, our model identified patients in clinical remission with an AUC of 0.67, patients in corticosteroid-free remission with an AUC of 0.66, patients with MH with an AUC of 0.72, patients in clinical remission with MH with an AUC of 0.73, and patients in corticosteroid-free clinical remission with MH with an AUC of 0.75. A cutoff value of 13 points identified patients in clinical remission after vedolizumab therapy with 92% sensitivity, patients in corticosteroid-free remission with 94% sensitivity, patients with MH with 98% sensitivity, patients with clinical remission and MH with 100% sensitivity, and patients with corticosteroid-free clinical remission with MH with 100% sensitivity., Conclusions: We developed and validated a scoring system to identify patients with CD most likely to respond to 26 weeks of vedolizumab therapy. Further studies are needed to optimize its accuracy in select populations and determine its cost-effectiveness., (Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Double-sampling schemes using one classifier assessing the whole sample and another classifier assessing a subset of the sample have been introduced for reducing classification errors when an infallible or gold standard classifier is unavailable or impractical. Inference procedures have previously been proposed for situations where an infallible classifier is available for validating a subset of the sample that has already been classified by a fallible classifier. Here, we consider the case where both classifiers are fallible, proposing and evaluating several confidence interval procedures for a proportion under two models, distinguished by the assumption regarding ascertainment of two classifiers. Simulation results suggest that the modified Wald-based confidence interval, Score-based confidence interval, two Bayesian credible intervals, and the percentile Bootstrap confidence interval performed reasonably well even for small binomial proportions and small validated sample under the model with the conditional independent assumption, and the confidence interval derived from the Wald test with nuisance parameters appropriately evaluated, likelihood ratio-based confidence interval, Score-based confidence interval, and the percentile Bootstrap confidence interval performed satisfactory in terms of coverage under the model without the conditional independent assumption. Moreover, confidence intervals based on log- and logit-transformations also performed well when the binomial proportion and the ratio of the validated sample are not very small under two models. Two examples were used to illustrate the procedures.

Background: Endoscopic assessment of mucosal disease activity is routinely used to determine eligibility and response to therapy in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis. The operating properties of the existing endoscopic scoring indices are unclear., Objectives: A systematic review was undertaken to evaluate the development and operating characteristics of endoscopic scoring indices for the evaluation of ulcerative colitis., Search Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL from inception to 5 July 2016. We also searched references and conference proceedings (Digestive Disease Week, United European Gastroenterology Week, European Crohn's and Colitis Organization)., Selection Criteria: Any study design (e.g. randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case series) that evaluated endoscopic indices for evaluation of ulcerative colitis disease activity were considered for inclusion. Eligible participants were adult patients (> 16 years), diagnosed with ulcerative colitis using conventional clinical, radiologic and endoscopic criteria., Data Collection and Analysis: Two authors independently reviewed the studies identified from the literature search. These authors also independently extracted and recorded data on the number of patients enrolled; number of patients per treatment arm; patient characteristics including age and gender distribution; endoscopic index; and outcomes such as reliability (intra-rater and inter-rater), validity (content, construct, criterion), responsiveness and feasibility. Any disagreements regarding study inclusion or data extraction were resolved by discussion and consensus with a third author. Risk of bias was assessed by determining whether assessors were blinded to clinical information and whether assessors scored the endoscopic index independently. We also assessed the methodological quality of the validation studies using the COSMIN checklist MAIN RESULTS: A total of 23 reports of 20 studies met the pre-defined inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Of the 20 included validation studies, 19 endoscopic scoring indices were assessed, including the Azzolini Classification, Baron Score, Blackstone Endoscopic Interpretation, Chinese Grading System of Ulcerative Colitis, Endoscopic Activty Index, Jeroen Score, Magnifying Colonoscopy Grade, Matts Score, Mayo Clinic Endoscopic Subscore, Modified Baron Score, Modified Mayo Clinic Endoscopic Subscore, Osada Score, Rachmilewtiz Endoscopic Score, St. Mark's Index, Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Serverity (UCCIS), endoscopic component of the Ulcerative Colitis Disease Activity Index (UCDAI), Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS), Witts Sigmoidoscopic Score and Watson Grade. The individuals who performed the endoscopic scoring were blinded to clinical and/or histologic information in ten of the included studies, not blinded to clinical and/or histologic information in one of the included studies, and it was unclear whether blinding occurred in the remaining nine included studies. Independent observation was confirmed in four of the included studies, unclear in five of the included studies, and non-applicable (since inter-rater reliability was not assessed) in the remaining eleven included studies. The methodological quality (COSMIN checklist) of most of the included studies was rated as 'good' or 'excellent'. One study that assessed responsiveness was rated as 'fair'. The inter-rater reliability of nine endoscopic scoring indices including the Baron Score, Blackstone Endoscopic Interpretation, Endoscopic Activity Index, Matts Score, Mayo Clinic Endoscopic Subscore, Osada Score, UCCIS, UCEIS, Watson Grade was assessed in seven studies, with estimates of correlation, ƙ, ranging from 0.44 to 0.97. The iIntra-rater reliability of seven endoscopic scoring indices including the Baron Score, Blackstone Endoscopic Interpretation, Matts Score, Mayo Clinic Endoscopic Subscore, Osada Score, UCCIS and UCEIS was assessed in three studies, with estimates of correlation, ƙ, ranging from 0.41 to 0.86. No studies assessed content validity. Three studies evaluated the criterion validity of three endoscopic scoring indices including the Rachmilewitz Endoscopic Score, Magnifying Colonoscopy Grade and the UCCIS. These indices were correlated with objective markers of disease activity including albumin, blood leukocytes, C-reactive protein, fecal calprotectin, hemoglobin, mucosal interleukin-8 concentration and platelet count. Correlation estimates ranged from r = -0.19 to 0.83. Thirteen endoscopic scoring indices were tested for construct validity in 13 studies. Estimates of correlation between the endoscopic scoring indices and other measures of disease activity ranged from r = 0.27 to 0.93. Two studies explored the responsiveness of four endoscopic scoring indices including the Mayo Endoscopic Subscore, Modified Baron Score, Modified Mayo Endoscopic Subscore and UCEIS. One study concluded that the Modified Baron Score, Modified Mayo Endoscopic Subscore and UCEIS had similar responsiveness for detecting disease change in ulcerative colitis. The other included study concluded that the UCEIS may be the most accurate endoscopic scoring tool. None of the included studies formally assessed feasibility., Authors' Conclusions: While the UCEIS, UCCIS and Mayo Clinic Endoscopic Subscore have undergone extensive validation, none of these instruments have been fully validated and only two studies assessed responsiveness. Further research on the operating properties of these indices is needed given the lack of a fully-validated endoscopic scoring instrument for the evaluation of disease activity in ulcerative colitis.

Background and Aims: EUS is a potentially useful modality to assess severity of inflammation in ulcerative colitis (UC). We assessed the reliability of existing EUS indices and correlated them with endoscopic and histologic scores., Methods: Four blinded endosonographers assessed 58 endoscopic and EUS videos in triplicate, from patients with UC. Intrarater and interrater reliability of the hyperemia and Tsuga scores were estimated by using intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Correlation with the Mayo endoscopy score, modified Baron score (MBS), Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS), and Geboes histopathology score (GHS) were calculated by using bootstrapping methods. A RAND consensus process led to development of standardized definitions and a revised EUS-UC score., Results: ICCs for intrarater reliability were 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71-0.80) for the hyperemia score and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79-0.89) for the Tsuga score. Corresponding values for interrater reliability were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.25-0.42) and 0.36 (95% CI, 0.24-0.46). Correlation between hyperemia and Tsuga scores to Mayo scoring system, MBS, UCEIS, and the GHS were 0.39 (95% CI, 0.15-0.61) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.04-0.51), 0.38 (95% CI, 0.16-0.57) and 0.25 (95% CI, -0.01-0.48), 0.41 (95% CI, 0.16-0.62) and 0.27 (95% CI, 0.01-0.50), 0.37 (95% CI, -0.01-0.48) and 0.24 (95% CI, 0.13-0.57), respectively. The revised EUS-UC score included bowel wall thickening, depth of inflammation, and hyperemia., Conclusions: Although substantial to almost perfect intrarater agreement existed for EUS indices in UC, interrater agreement was fair. Standardization of item definitions with development of a revised evaluative instrument has potential application as an evaluative and prognostic tool for UC. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT01852760.)., (Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: It is important to minimize placebo rates in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to efficiently detect treatment differences between interventions. Historically, high placebo rates have been observed in clinical trials of ulcerative colitis (UC). A better understanding of factors influencing placebo rates may lead to more informed clinical trial design., Objectives: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate placebo response and remission rates in RCTs evaluating UC treatments in adult patients., Search Methods: Electronic databases (i.e. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) were searched from inception to 1 March 2017 with no language restrictions applied. Reference lists and conference proceedings of major gastroenterology meetings were also handsearched to identify additional studies., Selection Criteria: Placebo-controlled RCTs of adult patients with UC treated with corticosteroids, aminosalicylates, immunosuppressives or biologics were eligible, provided enrolment and outcome assessment was conducted using the Ulcerative Colitis Disease Activity Index (UCDAI) or the Mayo Clinic Score. The minimum trial duration was two weeks for induction trials and four months maintenance trials., Data Collection and Analysis: Pairs of authors independently determined study eligibility and extracted data with any disagreements resolved through consensus. Outcomes of interest included the proportion of patients with clinical response and remission. Trial characteristics such as the design, participant demographics and disease history, interventions, and enrolment and assessment criteria were also recorded. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Pooled placebo response and remission rates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a binomial normal model for proportions. Induction of remission and maintenance studies were pooled separately. The impact of study-level characteristics on placebo response and remission rates was investigated using mixed-effects meta-regression analyses with logits of event rates as the outcome variables. An assessment of pooled placebo rates over time was conducted using a cumulative meta-analysis based on date of publication. Publication bias was examined using funnel plots., Main Results: The screening process identified 61 included studies which encompass 58 induction phases (5111 patients randomised to placebo) and 12 maintenance phases (1579 patients randomised to placebo). For induction trials, the pooled estimate of placebo response was 33% (95% CI 30% to 36%) while the pooled estimate of placebo remission was 12% (95% CI 9% to 15%). For maintenance trials, the pooled estimate of placebo response was 23% (95% CI 19% to 28%) while the pooled estimate of placebo remission was 17% (95% CI 10% to 27%).Studies enrolling patients with more active disease confirmed objectively by endoscopy were associated with significantly lower placebo remission and response rates than trials enrolling patients with less active disease (27% versus 4%, OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.25 to 5.42, P = 0.01 for UCDAI endoscopy sub score ≥1 versus ≥ 2 for remission; and 27% versus 4%, OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.82, P = 0.02 for UCDAI endoscopy sub score greater than or equal to one versus greater than or equal to two for response). With respect to drug class, the lowest placebo response and remission rates were observed in trials evaluating corticosteroids (23%; 95% CI 19 to 29%, and 5%; 95% CI 2 to 11%, respectively). Trials of biologics had the highest placebo response rate (35%; 95% CI 30 to 41%), while trials evaluating aminosalicylates had the highest placebo remission rate (18%; 95% CI 12 to 24%). Disease duration of greater than five years prior to enrolment was associated with a significantly lower placebo response rate compared to disease duration of less than or equal to five years (29% versus 47%, respectively; OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.92, P = 0.02). The requirement of a minimum rectal bleeding score for study eligibility was associated with an increased placebo response rate compared to studies that did not use rectal bleeding for trial eligibility (37% versus 32%, respectively; OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.82, P = 0.02). Finally, the time point of primary outcome assessment was found to be significantly associated with placebo remission rates such that every one week increment in endpoint assessment was associated with a 6% increase in the placebo remission rate (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10, P = 0.01).Cumulative meta-analysis indicated a consistent increase in the placebo response rate from 1987 to 2007 (from 13% to 33%), although rates have remained constant from 2008 to 2015 (32% to 34%). Similarly, placebo remission rates increased from 1987 to 2007 (5% to 14%) but have remained constant from 2008 to 2015 (12 to 14%). On meta-regression, there were no statistically significant differences between the 1987-2007 and 2008-2015 point estimates for both response (P = 0.81) and remission (P = 0.32)., Authors' Conclusions: Placebo response and remission rates vary according to endoscopic disease severity and rectal bleeding score at trial entry, class of agent, disease duration, and the time point at which the primary outcome was measured. These observations have important implications for the design and conduct of future clinical trials in UC and will help researchers design trials, determine required sample sizes and also provide useful information about trial design features which should be considered when planning new trials.

Background: Disease activity can be determined using clinical, endoscopic or histologic criteria in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). Persistent disease activity is associated with poor outcomes. Histologic disease activity has been shown to be associated with relapse, colectomy and colorectal cancer. The ability to objectively evaluate microscopic disease activity using histology is important for both clinical practice and clinical trials. However, the operating properties of the currently available histologic indices remain unclear., Objectives: A systematic review was undertaken to identify and evaluate the development and operating characteristics of histologic disease activity indices used to assess disease activity in people with ulcerative colitis., Search Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane IBD Review Group Specialized Trials Register from inception to 2 December 2016 for applicable studies. There were no language or document type restrictions., Selection Criteria: Any study design (e.g. randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case series) that evaluated a histologic index in patients with UC were considered for inclusion. Eligible patients were adults (> 18 years), diagnosed with UC using conventional clinical, radiographic, endoscopic and histologic criteria., Data Collection and Analysis: Two authors (MHM and CEP) independently reviewed the titles and abstracts of the studies identified from the literature search. A standardized form was used to assess eligibility of trials for inclusion and for data extraction.Two authors (MHM and CEP) independently extracted and recorded data, which included the number of patients enrolled, number of patients per treatment arm, patient characteristics including age and gender distribution, and the name of the histologic index. Outcomes (i.e. intra-rater reliability, inter-rater reliability, internal consistency, content validity, criterion validity, construct validity, responsiveness, and feasibility) were recorded for each trial., Main Results: In total, 126 reports describing 30 scoring indices were identified through the screening process. Eleven of the 30 scoring indices have undergone some form of index validation. Intra-rater reliability was assessed for eight scoring indices. Inter-rater reliability was evaluated for all 11 of the scoring indices. Three of the indices underwent content validation. Two of the included scoring indices assessed criterion validity. Six of the included scoring indices explored content validity. Two of the included scoring indices were tested for responsiveness., Authors' Conclusions: The Nancy Index and the Robarts Histopathology Index have undergone the most validation in that four operating properties including reliability, content validity, construct validity (hypothesis testing) and criterion validity have been tested. However, none of the currently available histologic scoring indices have been fully validated. In order to determine the optimal endpoint for histologic healing in UC, more research is required. The optimal index would need to be fully validated.

Background: Endoscopic assessment of mucosal disease activity is widely used to determine eligibility and response to therapy in clinical trials of treatment for Crohn's disease. However, the operating properties of the currently available endoscopic indices remain unclear., Objectives: A systematic review was undertaken to evaluate the development and operating characteristics of the Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity (CDEIS) and Simple Endoscopic Scale for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD)., Search Methods: Electronic searches of the MEDLINE (1966 to December 2015), EMBASE (1980 to December 2015), and Cochrane CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials (Issue 12, 2015) databases were supplemented by manual reviews of reference listings and conference proceedings (Digestive Disease Week, United European Gastroenterology Week, European Crohn's and Colitis Organization)., Selection Criteria: Any study design (e.g. randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, case series) that evaluated either or both the CDEIS or SES-CD in patients with Crohn's disease was considered for inclusion. Eligible participants were adult patients (> 16 years), diagnosed with Crohn's disease using conventional clinical, radiographic, and endoscopic criteria., Data Collection and Analysis: Two authors (RK, JKM) independently reviewed the titles and abstracts of the studies identified from the literature search. The full texts of potentially relevant citations were reviewed for inclusion and the study investigators were contacted to clarify any unclear data. Any disagreements were resolved by discussion and consensus with a third author. A standardized form was used to assess eligibility of trials for inclusion in the study and for data extraction.Two authors independently extracted and recorded data (RK, SAN). The number of patients enrolled; number of patients per treatment arm; patient characteristics including age and gender distribution; endoscopic index; and outcomes such as intra-rater reliability, inter-rater reliability responsiveness, validity, feasibility, construct validity, and criterion validity were recorded for each trial., Main Results: Forty-three reports of 30 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria.For the SES-CD, inter-rater reliability was assessed in four studies. In the development study for the SES-CD (Daperno 2004), the overall ICC (0.9815, 95% CI 0.9705 to 0.9884) and the kappa for the regions is high; however the paired raters were in the same room which introduces the potential for bias.For the CDEIS, inter-rater reliability was assessed in six studies. Daperno 2014 reported that the ICC for the CDEIS was 0.985 (95% CI 0.939-1.000) for average measures of video score and was 0.835 (95% CI 0.540-0.995) for single measures of video score.With respect to validity, correlation between the CDEIS and clinical measures, including C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), was also reported. The estimates of correlation with CRP were r = 0.521 (Sipponen 2010b), r = 0.553 (Sipponen 2008a) and r = 0.608 (Sipponen 2008c). For the SES-CD, the corresponding values for correlation with CRP ranged from r = 0.46 (Jones 2008) to r = 0.68 (Green 2011).Responsiveness data for the CDEIS were available in nine studies. Seven studies demonstrated statistically significant decreases in the CDEIS score after administration of a treatment of known efficacy. Minimal responsiveness data were available for the SES-CD. Sipponen 2010a and Sipponen 2010b demonstrated statistically significant changes in the SES-CD score after subjects were administered a treatment of known efficacy.No studies were identified that explicitly evaluated the feasibility for either the SES-CD or the CDEIS. The SES-CD requires fewer calculations and may therefore be easier to use than the CDEIS., Authors' Conclusions: Although they are used in clinical trials, the CDEIS and SES-CD remain incompletely validated. Future research is required to determine the operating properties and to define the optimal index.