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Recent Arctic warming has fuelled interest in the weather and climate of the polar regions and how this interacts with lower latitudes. Several interesting theories of polar-midlatitude linkages involves Rossby wave propagation as a key process even though the meridional gradient in planetary vorticity, crucial for these waves, is weak at high latitudes. Here we review some basic theory and suggest that Rossby waves can indeed explain some features of polar variability, especially when relative vorticity gradients are present. We suggest that large-scale polar flow can be conceptualised as a mix of geostrophic turbulence and Rossby wave propagation, as in the mid-latitudes, but with the balance tipped further in favour of turbulent flow. Hence, isolated vortices often dominate but some wavelike features remain. As an example, quasi-stationary or weakly westward-propagating subpolar anomalies emerge from statistical analysis of observed data, and these are consistent with some role for wave propagation. The noted persistence of polar cyclones and anticyclones is attributed in part to the weakened effects of wave dispersion, the mechanism responsible for the decay of mid-latitude anomalies in downstream development. We also suggest that the vortex-dominated nature of polar dynamics encourages the emergence of annular mode structures in principal component analyses of extratropical circulation. Finally, we consider how Rossby waves may be triggered from high latitudes. The linear mechanisms known to balance localised heating at lower latitudes are shown to be less efficient in the polar regions. Instead, we suggest the direct response to sea ice loss often manifests as a heat low, with radiative cooling balancing the heating. If the relative vorticity gradient is favourable this does have the potential to trigger a Rossby wave response, although this will often be weak compared to waves forced from lower latitudes.

Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea-ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic-European region to future Arctic sea-ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea-ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic-European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic-European response to future Arctic sea-ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is a priority for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic-European precipitation response to future Arctic sea-ice loss.

The large amplitude of low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, often known as Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV), raises the question of what impact this phenomenon has on atmospheric circulation. However, the coupled nature of AMV, makes disentangling the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere and that of the atmosphere on the ocean, challenging. This problem is further confounded by the relatively short observational record, when considering decadal to multi-decadal timescales.To address this, we utilize information from both SSTs and ocean-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes, in a single index, to separate the influences that the ocean and atmosphere have on one another. This technique is then applied to both free-running coupled simulations and observations. This methodology will help further our understanding of North Atlantic variability on long timescales.

It has been demonstrated that decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be predicted by current forecast models. While Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been hypothesised as the source of this skill, the validity of this hypothesis and the pathways involved remain unclear. We show, using reanalysis and data from two forecast models, that the decadal predictability of the NAO can be entirely accounted for by the predictability of decadal variations in the speed of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, with no predictability of decadal variations in the jet latitude. The sub-polar North Atlantic (SPNA) is identified as the only potential source of an SST-based signal across the models and reanalysis, and the predictability of the jet speed is shown to be consistent with a forcing from the SPNA visible already within a single season. The pathway is argued to be tropospheric in nature, with the SPNA-induced heating extending up to the mid-troposphere, which alters the meridional temperature gradient around the climatological jet position. The link between SSTs and heatfluxes, which mediates the predictability, is shown to be underestimated in the forecast models by approximately a factor of two, with potential implications for the `signal-to-noise paradox'. The relative roles of anthropogenic aerosol emissions and the AMOC at generating predictable SPNA variability are also discussed. The analysis is extensively supported by the novel use of a set of seasonal hindcasts spanning the 20th century and forced with prescribed SSTs.

Climate model hindcasts are analyzed to reveal the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the North Atlantic subpolar ocean, which exhibits variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. The ocean response to a single winter NAO event is separated into fast and slow responses. The fast response persists over winter–spring seasons, during which wind stress and heat flux anomalies associated with the NAO rapidly modify ocean temperatures via changes in Ekman transport and ocean-atmosphere heat exchanges. The slow response persists for 3–4 years, during which overturning and gyre circulations redistribute opposing-signed surface temperature anomalies created by the NAO. This redistribution modifies east-west temperature contrasts altering the meridional heat transport associated with gyres and changing the strength of the overturning circulation. Hence, the fast and slow responses lead to opposing-signed subpolar temperature anomalies in time from the competing effects of local forcing and horizontal heat convergence.

Significant challenges in modelling clouds render observational data an important resource for quantifying cloud feedbacks. Here, we use data from satellite and reanalysis products to estimate tropical cloud feedbacks over a wide range of circulation regimes. We use two distinct methods, month-to-month variability and linear multi-decadal trends, to gain insight as to whether short-term feedbacks are representative of feedbacks associated with CO2-induced warming. We also investigate the extent to which cloud feedbacks are circulation-driven by decomposing the relative contributions of circulation versus thermodynamic changes to the feedbacks in each regime. The influence of thermodynamic processes on cloud feedbacks has been shown to be dominant at large spatial scales in global climate models (Byrne and Schneider, 2018), but it is unclear whether observed feedbacks are consistent with model behaviour. A particular focus of our analysis is the effect of circulation on the tropical anvil cloud area feedback in ascending regions, as this feedback constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the overall cloud feedback yet is relatively understudied (Sherwood et al. 2020). References:Byrne, M. P., & Schneider, T. (2018). Atmospheric dynamics feedback: Concept, simulations, and climate implications. Journal of Climate, 31(8), 3249-3264. Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., ... & Zelinka, M. D. (2020). An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4), e2019RG000678.

We employ multi-ensemble Met Office Decadal Prediction System hindcasts to analyse the impact of atmospheric winds and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases on the overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. A positive NAO phase is generally associated with an anomalously strong and/or northward shifted jet stream in the North Atlantic, and the vice-versa is true for a negative NAO phase. As a consequence of relatively strong winds, oceans tend to lose more heat to the atmosphere in winter in many parts of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. This process is expected to create negative anomalies in sea surface temperature and generate more dense water on the ocean surface at high latitudes resulting in a strengthening in the overturning circulation. Here, we examine the sensitivity of the overturning circulation to NAO phases in multi-ensemble decadal hindcasts to understand how the interior ocean responds to different NAO phases. For this purpose, we analyse the changes in east-west density contrasts, upper ocean heat content, mixed-layer depth, meridional heat and salt transport in different oceanic regions, i.e. Labrador Sea, Irminger Sea and Nordic Seas. In particular, we perform a linear regression analysis for the above-mentioned diagnostics and NAO indices to assess how sensitive the upper ocean is to changes in the atmospheric state. We further compare our results against reanalysis data and in-situ observations.

Multi-thousand member climate model simulations are highly valuable for showing characteristics of extreme weather events in historical and future climates. However, until now, studies using such a physically-based approach have been limited to using models with a resolution much coarser than the most modern systems. We have developed a global atmospheric model with ~60km resolution that can be run in the climateprediction.net distributed computing system to produce such large datasets. This resolution is finer than that of many current global climate models and sufficient for good simulation of extratropical synoptic features such as storms. It also allows many extratropical extreme weather events to be simulated without requiring regional downscaling. We will show that this model's simulation of extratropical winter weather is competitive with that in other state-of-the-art models. We will also present the first results generated by this system. One application has been the production of ~2000 member simulations based on sea surface temperatures in severe future winters produced in the UK Climate Projections 2018 dataset, generating large numbers of examples of plausible extreme wet and warm UK seasons. Another is showing the increasing spatial extent of precipitation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

What: Approximately 40 participants – with expertise spanning energy, computer science, weather and climate research -– joined a week-long Energy-Climate data “hackathon” in June 2021. It was hosted by the Universities of Oxford and Reading in partnership with the UK Met Office as part of a series of themed hackathons supported by the Met Office and held in the run-up to the UN COP26 conference. Six projects were initiated and developed by teams over the course of the week, supported by access to state-of-the-art computational resources on the UK’s CEDA-JASMIN service, and stimulated by keynote speakers from industry and academia. The hackathon concluded with teams presenting their outputs to a panel of invited experts. Several teams plan to build on their hackathon success in publications, ongoing collaborations and research funding proposals. When: 18th May (half-day “scoping” event) & 21st-25th June 2021 (main hackathon) Where: Online via Zoom and Gather.Town, supported by Slack communication channels Affiliations: Initiated by: University of Oxford Dr Sarah Sparrow, Professor David Wallom, Professor Tim Woollings, & University of Reading Professor David Brayshaw, Dr Hannah Bloomfield, In partnership with the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, and with support from the UK’s CEDA-JASMIN service and Gurobi optimization software.

In a free-running climate model, DJF tropical–extratropical teleconnections are assessed and compared to observed teleconnections in reanalysis data. From reanalysis, the leading mode of covariability between tropical outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and Northern Hemisphere extratropical geopotential height (Z500) is identified using maximum covariance analysis (MCA). This mode relates closely to the El Niño pattern. The GCM captures the tropical OLR well but the associated extratropical Z500 less well. The GCM climatology has an equatorward shifted North Pacific jet bias. We examine whether the difference in the teleconnection pattern is related to the GCM’s jet bias. In both a ray-tracing analysis and a barotropic model, this jet bias is shown to affect the Rossby wave propagation from the tropical Pacific into the North Pacific. These idealized model results suggest qualitatively that the MCA difference is largely consistent with linear Rossby wave dynamics. While the basic state has a larger effect on the North Pacific MCA, a Rossby wave source (RWS) bias in the Caribbean has a larger effect on the North Atlantic MCA. The North Pacific jet bias is also proposed to affect the downstream propagation of waves from North America into the Caribbean, where it affects tropical RWS and the triggering of secondary waves into the North Atlantic. We propose that climatological biases in the tropics are one underlying cause of the jet bias. Our study may also help understand the results of other climate models with similar jet biases.

From observations, we identify a wave‐like pattern associated with northwestern European seasonal precipitation events. These events are associated with tropical precipitation anomalies, prompting us to investigate if there are any tropical–extratropical teleconnections, in particular the role of tropical anomalies in driving extratropical dynamics through Rossby wave propagation. Using a hierarchy of models from ray tracing to barotropic and baroclinic models, we investigate the Rossby wave mechanism and test potential tropical drivers and yield qualitative results. Using a barotropic model, we identify potential Rossby wave source regions which are consistent between the observations and the model. These regions include the tropical western and eastern Atlantic, the subtropical eastern Atlantic and, to a smaller degree, the subtropical eastern Pacific. Zonal wavenumber 2 and 3 components of the barotropic model responses match well with the observations and ray tracing supports the importance of these components. We use a baroclinic model to investigate the link between the observed Rossby wave source anomalies and the observed tropical precipitation anomalies. The reduced precipitation observed in the tropical Atlantic just north of the Equator can generate some of the observed Rossby wave source anomalies in the tropical Atlantic, while the increased precipitation observed in the tropical eastern Pacific can generate some of the observed Rossby wave source anomalies in the subtropical eastern Pacific. Our results can also be applied to European drought events because of the qualitative linearity in the observations and in our linear methods.

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the interannual variability of the EASJ, less is known about variations on a decadal time-scale. This study investigates the relationship between decadal EASJ variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and thus the potential predictability that SSTs may provide. Given the relatively short observational record, we make use of the long pre-industrial control simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in addition to a large ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments, forced with random SST patterns. We then create an SST-based reconstruction of the dominant modes of EASJ variability in the CMIP6 models, finding a median EASJ–reconstruction correlation for the dominant mode of 0.43. Much of the skill in the reconstruction arises from variations in Pacific SSTs, however the tropical Atlantic also makes a significant contribution. These findings suggest the potential for multi-year predictions of the EASJ, provided that skilful SST forecasts are available.

Blockings are high-impact atmospheric systems of mid/high-latitudes and have been widely addressed in meteorological and climatological studies. However, the diversity of blocking definitions makes comparison across studies not straightforward. Here, we propose a conceptual model for the life-cycle of high-pressure systems that recognizes the multifaceted and transient characteristics of these events. A detection scheme identifies and classifies daily structures, discriminating between subtropical ridges and different types of well-established blocking patterns (omega and dipole-like Rex). This is complemented by a spatio-temporal tracking algorithm, which accounts for transitions between patterns, providing a global catalogue of events for 1950-2020. Criteria rely on simple metrics retrieved from one single-level field, and allow implementation in different datasets and climatic realms. Using reanalyses data, we provide illustrative examples, the first global and seasonal climatological assessment of the diversity of high-pressure events, their associated impacts and recent frequency changes.Results reveal that ridge and blocking events affect widespread regions from the subtropics to high-latitudes. We find remarkably distinct regional impacts among the considered types, which had been hindered in previous studies by restricted focus on Rex-like structures. This plethora of high-pressure systems is much less evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where activity is dominated by subtropical ridges and secluded blocking-like patterns. We report increasing frequencies of low-latitude systems, although with hemispheric and seasonal differences that can only be partially interpreted as a consequence of subtropical expansion. Blocking frequency trends exhibit more heterogeneous and complex spatial patterns, with no evidence of generalized significant changes.

Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from seasonal to multidecadal timescales. However, the extratropical circulation variability on multidecadal timescales is systematically weaker in coupled climate models. Here we show that projections of future extratropical climate from coupled model simulations significantly underestimate the projected uncertainty range originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Using observational datasets and large ensembles of coupled climate models, we produce synthetic ensemble projections constrained to have variability consistent with the large-scale atmospheric circulation in observations. Compared to the raw model projections, the synthetic observationally-constrained projections exhibit an increased uncertainty in projected 21st century temperature and precipitation changes across much of the Northern extratropics. This increased uncertainty is also associated with an increase of the projected occurrence of future extreme seasons. Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations substantially underestimate the uncertainty that originates from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, suggest synthetic ensemble projections constrained with observations.

The physical understanding and timely prediction of extreme weather events are of enormous importance to society regarding associated impacts. In this article, we highlight several types of weather extremes occurring in Europe in connection with a particular atmospheric flow pattern, known as atmospheric blocking. This flow pattern effectively blocks the prevailing westerly large-scale atmospheric flow, resulting in changing flow anomalies in the vicinity of the blocking system and persistent conditions in the immediate region of its occurrence. Blockings are long-lasting, quasi-stationary, self-sustaining systems that occur frequently over certain regions. Their presence and characteristics have an impact on the predictability of weather extremes and can thus be used as potential indicators. The phasing between the surface and the upper-level blocking anomalies is of major importance for the development of the extreme event. In summer, heat waves and droughts form below the blocking anticyclone primarily via large-scale subsidence that leads to cloud-free skies and thus, persistent longwave radiative warming of the ground. In winter, cold waves that occur during atmospheric blocking are normally observed downstream or south of these systems. Here, horizontal advection of cold air masses from higher latitudes plays a decisive role. Extreme snowfall can also occur with the lower temperatures, indicating a shift of the storm track due to the blocking system. Such a shift is also crucial in the connection of blocking with wind and precipitation anomalies in general. Due to this multifaceted linkages, compound events are often observed in conjunction with blocking conditions.

Stationary wave changes play a significant role in the regional climate change response in Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter. In particular, almost all CMIP5 models feature a substantial strengthening of the westerlies to the south of Australia and enhancement of the subtropical jet over the eastern Pacific in winter. In this study we investigate the mechanisms behind these changes, finding that the stationary wave response can largely be explained via reductions in the magnitude of the upper level Rossby wave source over the tropical / subtropical East Pacific. The Rossby wave source changes in this region are robust across the model ensemble and are strongly correlated with changes to low latitude circulation patterns, in particular, the projected southward migration of the Hadley cell and weakening of the Walker circulation. To confirm our mechanism of future changes, we employ a series of barotropic model experiments in which the barotropic model is given a background state identical to a particular CMIP5 model and an anomalous Rossby wave source is imposed. This simple approach is able to capture the primary features of the ensemble mean change, including the cyclonic anomaly south of Australia, and is also able to capture many of the inter-model differences. These findings will help to advance our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning SH extratropical circulation changes under climate change.

Blocking events are persistent weather systems that strongly impact daily weather and more importantly our societies. One reason behind their strong impact is their potential long duration, as blocking events can last from 5 days up to four-five weeks. However, the mechanisms explaining this difference of duration have not been properly studied yet. Here, we investigate the differences between short blocks, which last 5 days, and long blocks, which last at least 10 days. We take a broad hemispheric and annual approach to this question, while recognizing that other specific factors may play a role in particular region and seasons. We show that long blocks often involve cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, while short blocks are equally associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic wave breaking. This main result is reproduced in a coupled climate model ensemble. The lower number of long anticyclonic blocks might be due to three main reasons: One/the anticyclone is reinforced on the downstream side during anticyclonic blocks which is less conducive to persistence; two/positive synoptic eddy feedback tends to force the mean zonal wind toward a more northward position during anticyclonic blocks, whereas it forces the mean zonal wind to the south of the block during cyclonic blocks, which has been previously shown to be associated with more persistent weather patterns; three/particularly sustained eddy feedback is needed to maintain long anticyclonic blocks.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main driver of weather variability in parts of Eurasia, Greenland, North America, and North Africa on a range of time scales. Successful extended-range NAO predictions would equate to improved predictions of precipitation and temperature in these regions. It has become clear that the NAO is influenced by the stratosphere, but because this downward coupling is not fully reproduced by all forecast models the potential for improved NAO forecasts has not been fully realized. Here, an analysis of 21 winters of subseasonal forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts monthly forecasting system is presented. By dividing the forecasts into clusters according to their errors in North Atlantic Ocean sea level pressure 15-30 days into the forecasts, we identify relationships between these errors and the state of the stratospheric polar vortex when the forecasts were initialized. A key finding is that the model overestimates the persistence of both the negative NAO response following a weak polar vortex and the positive NAO response following a strong polar vortex. A case in point is the sudden stratospheric warming in early 2019, which was followed by five consecutive weeks of an overestimation of the negative NAO regime. A consequence on the ground was temperature predictions for northern Europe that were too cold. In this talk, we include a new analysis of the temperature prediction performance following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming. Another important finding is that the model appears to misrepresent the gradual downward impact of stratospheric vortex anomalies. This result suggests that an improved representation and prediction of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in models might yield substantial benefits for extended-range weather forecasting in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes.

In this study, we aim at identifying dynamical differences between short blocks, which last only five days, and long blocks, which last at least ten days, to better characterise long blocks. We show that long blocks often involve cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, while short blocks are equally associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic wave breaking. This main result is reproduced in several coupled climate models. We propose three mechanisms that might explain the lower number of long anticyclonic blocks: 1/ a downstream reinforcement of the anticyclone during anticyclonic blocks might be associated with a stronger downstream advection of the block; 2/ the mean zonal wind is reinforced by synoptic eddies towards a more northward position during anticyclonic blocks, whereas synoptic eddies force the mean zonal wind to the south of the block during cyclonic blocks, which has been previously shown to be associated with more persistent weather patterns; 3/ strong and/or sustained eddy feedback is needed to maintain long anticyclonic blocks. All these parameters combined might explain why blocks last longer and why anticyclonic blocks are less present at extreme durations.

Variability of the East Asian summer jet stream (EAJ) has a significant impact on the climate of East Asia, primarily through its modulation of East Asian precipitation. In recent decades the impact of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans on the EAJ have been studied in considerable detail, however much less is known about the drivers of EAJ variability on decadal or multi-decadal timescales. Investigating this problem is made more challenging by the temporal limitations of reanalysis datasets.In order to establish whether SSTs can provide a source of skill in predicting decadal variations of the EAJ, we analyse long pre-industrial control runs of the CMIP6 models. One issue with studying coupled model runs is that it is often unclear whether particular SST anomalies are forcing the atmosphere, and thus can provide a meaningful source of skill, or whether they are merely responding to local atmospheric anomalies. We address this issue by combining SST and turbulent heat flux information to indicate the direction of the forcing.

Strong rivers of westerly winds, known as jet streams, are driven primarily by temperature differences between low and high latitudes as well as the rotation of the Earth. The jet streams create and impact weather systems and steer them in the midlatitudes of both hemispheres. Often, these jet streams do not flow directly from west to east, but rather meander north and south in a wave pattern of alternating high- and low-pressure regions. These meanders are Rossby waves, which influence the jet streams via baroclinic instability caused by temperature gradients. Depending on their wavelength, latitude, and the background wind speed, these waves can move to the east or to the west and under certain conditions also be (quasi)stationary. Jet streams can locally increase the gradient of vorticity (atmospheric spin), so that atmospheric wave guides may be formed. These waveguides affect the propagation pathways of Rossby waves, often leading to more zonal propagation, and potentially amplification of waves. Rossby waves, jets, and waveguides affect atmospheric eddies, such as anticyclonic blocks, and can create prolonged weather conditions that lead to extreme weather impacts. Anthropogenic climate change is weakening the north–south temperature gradient. The rapid warming of the Arctic, known as Arctic amplification, is one factor affecting the poleward temperature gradient. It has been hypothesized that a weakened jet stream tends to be “wavier,” which may increase the probability of atmospheric blocking. On the other hand, anthropogenic climate change also cools the polar lower stratosphere and warms the tropical upper troposphere, which should act to strengthen the jet. Jet streams may therefore be experiencing a “tug-of-war” between these effects with opposing signs. Together, these changes tend to increase the vertical wind shear in midlatitudes, leading to increases in turbulence at the cruising altitude of aircraft. It is not yet clear which of these two effects of amplified warming will be dominant, nor how this will depend on season, region, and background state, but changes in the jet would have potential implications for the frequency of extreme weather in a future, warmer climate.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main driver of weather variability in parts of Eurasia, Greenland, North America, and North Africa on a range of time scales. Successful extended-range NAO predictions would equate to improved predictions of precipitation and temperature in these regions. It has become clear that the NAO is influenced by the stratosphere, but because this downward coupling is not fully reproduced by all forecast models the potential for improved NAO forecasts has not been fully realized. Here, an analysis of 21 winters of subseasonal forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts monthly forecasting system is presented. By dividing the forecasts into clusters according to their errors in North Atlantic Ocean sea level pressure 15–30 days into the forecasts, we identify relationships between these errors and the state of the stratospheric polar vortex when the forecasts were initialized. A key finding is that the model overestimates the persistence of both the negative NAO response following a weak polar vortex and the positive NAO response following a strong polar vortex. A case in point is the sudden stratospheric warming in early 2019, which was followed by five consecutive weeks of an overestimation of the negative NAO regime. A consequence on the ground was temperature predictions for northern Europe that were too cold. Another important finding is that the model appears to misrepresent the gradual downward impact of stratospheric vortex anomalies. This result suggests that an improved representation and prediction of stratosphere–troposphere coupling in models might yield substantial benefits for extended-range weather forecasting in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes.

The wintertime Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation exhibits considerable zonal asymmetries. We investigate the roles of various surface boundary conditions in shaping the mean state using a semi-realistic, atmosphere-only climate model. We find, in agreement with previous literature, that tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are an important contributor to the mean state, while midlatitude SSTs and sea ice extent play a smaller role. Our main finding is that Antarctic orography has a first-order effect on the structure of the midlatitude circulation. In the absence of Antarctic orography, equatorward eddy momentum fluxes associated with the orography are removed and hence convergence of eddy momentum in midlatitudes is reduced. This weakens the Indian Ocean jet, making Rossby wave propagation downstream to the South Pacific less favorable. Consequently, the flow stagnates over the mid- to high-latitude South Pacific and the characteristic split jet pattern is destroyed. Removing Antarctic orography also results in a substantial warming over East Antarctica partly because transient eddies are able to penetrate farther poleward, enhancing poleward heat transport. However, experiments in which a high-latitude cooling is applied indicate that these temperature changes are not the primary driver of circulation changes in the midlatitudes. Instead, we invoke a simple barotropic mechanism in which the orographic slope creates an effective potential vorticity gradient that alters the eddy momentum flux.

Multi-thousand member climate model simulations are highly valuable for showing how extreme weather events will change as the climate changes, using a physically-based approach. However, until now, studies using such an approach have been limited to using models with a resolution much coarser than the most modern systems. We have developed a global atmospheric model with 5/6°x5/9° resolution (~60km in middle latitudes) that can be run in the climateprediction.net distributed computing system to produce such large datasets. This resolution is finer than that of many current global climate models and sufficient for good simulation of extratropical synoptic features such as storms. It will also allow many extratropical extreme weather events to be simulated without requiring regional downscaling. We will show that this model's simulation of extratropical weather is competitive with that in other current models. We will also present results from the first multi-thousand member ensembles produced at this resolution, showing the impact of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming on extreme winter rainfall and extratropical cyclones in Europe.

The role of the atmospheric jet stream in driving patterns of surface heat flux, changes in sea surface temperature, and sea ice fraction is explored for the winter North Atlantic. Seasonal time-scale ensemble hindcasts from the Met Office Hadley Centre are analyzed for each winter from 1980 to 2014, which for each year includes 40 ensemble members initialized at the start of November. The spread between ensemble members that develops during a season is interpreted to represent the ocean response to stochastic atmospheric variability. The seasonal coupling between the winter atmosphere and the ocean over much of the North Atlantic reveals anomalies in surface heat loss driving anomalies in the tendency of sea surface temperature. The atmospheric jet, defined either by its speed or latitude, strongly controls the winter pattern of air–sea latent and sensible heat flux anomalies, and subsequent sea surface temperature anomalies. On time scales of several months, the effect of jet speed is more pronounced than that of jet latitude on the surface ocean response, although the effect of jet latitude is important in altering the extent of the ocean subtropical and subpolar gyres. A strong jet or high jet latitude increases sea ice fraction over the Labrador Sea due to the enhanced transport of cold air from west Greenland, while sea ice fraction decreases along the east side of Greenland due either to warm air advection or a strong northerly wind along the east Greenland coast blowing surface ice away from the Fram Strait.

European climate is influenced by a number of large-scale phenomena which are typically poorly represented by global climate models. A key motivation in generating a coupled perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) for use in the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18) was to exploit the significant improvements in regional dynamics that have been demonstrated at higher vertical and horizontal resolutions.The UKCP18 package includes a number of products, including a set of 28 global model ‘realizations’ comprising a 15-member PPE and a filtered sub-set of 13 CMIP5 members. These physically coherent, spatially and temporally complete scenarios of future change provide a flexible tool for exploring plausible future changes and their likely impacts.We present an assessment of the PPE’s ability to represent key aspects of the regional large-scale circulation and its implications for the realistic simulation of UK and European climate and its variability. These include the large-scale circulation climatology, frequencies of weather types determined by clustering of north Atlantic MSLP anomalies, latitude and strength of the north Atlantic jet, location and frequency of north Atlantic and European storms and the frequency of blocking events. We show that the PPE members perform at least at as well as, or better than, the filtered 13-member CMIP5 subset with respect to these circulation characteristics. This realistic behaviour offers a good basis for UK and European climate impacts studies, as well as the further development of ‘storylines’ approaches.

Eddy-driven jets are sustained through momentum transport by Rossby waves, which propagate along potential vorticity (PV) gradients. In the atmosphere, spatial variations in time-mean PV are mostly dominated by the variation of the Coriolis parameter with latitude. However, at high southern latitudes, a significant perturbation to the distribution and mixing of PV is provided by the Antarctic Plateau, which rises up to 4km above sea level. It is therefore possible that this orography affects Rossby wave propagation and hence affects the circulation in mid-latitudes.We show through a set of semi-realistic and idealised experiments, that Antarctic topography plays a fundamental role in shaping the structure of the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. In particular, we perform runs with and without the Antarctic Plateau and demonstrate that the Plateau alters Rossby wave structure and propagation, thereby changing the momentum fluxes. Removal of the Plateau weakens the Indian Ocean jet and has a substantial effect on the flow downstream over the South Pacific. Here, the characteristic split jet pattern is destroyed and the flow at high latitudes stagnates. This also illustrates the prevalence of downstream development in the Southern Hemisphere and the strong connections between the flow over the South Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of variability in the large scale circulation over the North Atlantic in winter, and strongly influences the weather and climate of Europe. On synoptic timescales, the negative phase of the NAO often corresponds to the occurrence of a blocking episode over Greenland. Hence, the dynamics and predictability of these blocking events is of interest for the prediction of the NAO and its related impacts over a wide region. Ensemble sensitivity analysis utilises the information contained in probabilistic forecast ensembles to calculate a statistical relationship between a forecast metric and some precursor condition. Here the method is applied to 15‐day forecasts of a set of 26 Greenland blocking events using the state‐of‐the‐art European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system. The ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that Greenland blocking does not develop in isolation in these forecasts, but instead the blocking is sensitive to remote precursors, such as 500 hPa and 50 hPa geopotential height, particularly in the low‐frequency flow. In general, there are more significant sensitivities to anomalies in the tropics than in the polar regions. Stratospheric sensitivities tend to emerge at later lead times than tropospheric sensitivities. The strongest and most robust sensitivities correspond to a Rossby wave precursor reaching from the Pacific basin across North America.

Major changes are occurring across the North Atlantic climate system, including in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, and many observed changes are unprecedented in instrumental records. As the changes in the North Atlantic directly affect the climate and air quality of the surrounding continents, it is important to fully understand how and why the changes are taking place, not least to predict how the region will change in the future. To this end, this article characterizes the recent observed changes in the North Atlantic region, especially in the period 2005–2016, across many different aspects of the system including: atmospheric circulation; atmospheric composition; clouds and aerosols; ocean circulation and properties; and the cryosphere. Recent changes include: an increase in the speed of the North Atlantic jet stream in winter; a southward shift in the North Atlantic jet stream in summer, associated with a weakening summer North Atlantic Oscillation; increases in ozone and methane; increases in net absorbed radiation in the mid‐latitude western Atlantic, linked to an increase in the abundance of high level clouds and a reduction in low level clouds; cooling of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, concomitant with increases in the western subtropical gyre, and a decline in the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation; a decline in Atlantic sector Arctic sea ice and rapid melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. There are many interactions between these changes, but these interactions are poorly understood. This article concludes by highlighting some of the key outstanding questions.