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It is commonly argued that cities face unprecedented pressures and therefore must transform. To guide transformations, it is important to develop guiding visions. This paper reports on a futures thinking exercise in the context of cities. It employs a methodology based on a series of community workshops with a diverse mix of experts using a “strategic conversation”. The conversation was framed around the question: ‘How might your city build and maintain resilience in a range of plausible futures?’ Results of the process help to identify risks and opportunities, as well as urban transformation archetypes. Furthermore, these narratives are interpreted as city reorganization patterns similar to those theorized in resilience thinking through the notion of adaptive cycles. Finally, the possibility of developing a more functional transformation narrative for cities is outlined, which would enable the development of a collective vision for a desired urban future and how to avoid the adverse consequences of drivers of change in cities.

Integrated assessment of natural and human systems is regarded as a way to facilitate effective governance of complex environmental issues, and engagement of stakeholders is recognised as a key requirement of such an assessment. Place-based ecosystem service analysis is one framework for integrative research on understanding citizen values. By using the lens of place, participants can articulate values and perceptions. Advantages of this framework are particularly relevant in the urban setting, given that the population and functioning of cities create especially high pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity of the surrounding areas. This study reports on a place-based ecosystem service analysis study in Bogota, Colombia. It aimed to identify how urban citizens conceptualise the socio-ecological value of a nearby protected natural area, the Eastern Hills Protected Forest Area. The objective was to generate an integrated understanding of the services the Hills provide to Bogota. The study found that the services of fresh water and habitat provision, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, erosion control and climate and air quality were highly prioritised ecosystem services due to their fundamental importance for the maintenance of human life. The Hills also hold cultural value for Bogotans, such as a sense of belonging and identity, being the natural symbol of Bogota and inspiration for escapism. There is enthusiasm for greater stewardship and conservation of the Hills, and demand for a greater role in decision making. The place-based ecosystem service approach can be developed as a tool for developing an integrated understanding of citizen values for landscape management.

This chapter attempts to distil key messages and guidelines from the literature on futures-thinking in order to help researchers, policymakers and land managers decide when and how to apply futures-thinking when considering ecosystem services. Futures-thinking draws on a range of disciplines to acknowledge and address the psychological and other barriers to thinking openly and creatively about future possibilities and their implications for planning over multiple timeframes. The methods associated with futures-thinking explore how external forces have interacted with human thinking, values and behaviours to shape the past and present and how such interactions might shape the future. The chapter explores a large body of literature on futures-thinking and shows how it can contribute to ecosystem assessments. Like ecosystem assessments, critical and integral futures approaches aim to improve societies' ability to think more deeply about social as well as bio-physical futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment sought to make explicit the relationships between ecosystem services and human needs.

© 2015, The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis. A new approach was developed for Australia's 2011 national State of the Environment (SoE) report to integrate the assessment of biophysical and human elements of the environment. A Common Assessment and Reporting Framework (CARF) guided design and implementation, responding to jurisdictional complexity, outstanding natural diversity and ecosystem values, high levels of cultural and heritage diversity, and a paucity of national-scale data. The CARF provided a transparent response to the need for an independent, robust and evidence-based national SoE report. We conclude that this framework will be effective for subsequent national SoE assessments and other integrated national-scale assessments in data-poor regions.