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Jennifer L St Sauver,1,2 Janet E Olson,1,3 Veronique L Roger,1,2,4 Wayne T Nicholson,5 John L Black III,3,6 Paul Y Takahashi,7 Pedro J Caraballo,7 Elizabeth J Bell,2 Debra J Jacobson,1,2 Nicholas B Larson,1 Suzette J Bielinski,1,3 1Department of Health Sciences Research, 2Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, 3Center for Individualized Medicine, 4Department of Cardiovascular Diseases, 5Department of Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, 6Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, 7Department of Primary Care Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Background: Variation in the CYP2D6 gene may affect response to opioids in both poor and ultrarapid metabolizers, but data demonstrating such associations have been mixed, and the impact of variants on toxicity-related symptoms (e.g., nausea) is unclear. Therefore, we examined the association between CYP2D6 phenotype and poor pain control or other adverse symptoms related to the use of opioids in a sample of primary care patients.Materials and methods: We identified all patients in the Mayo Clinic RIGHT Protocol who were prescribed an opioid medication between July 01, 2013 and June 30, 2015, and categorized patients into three phenotypes: poor, intermediate to extensive, or ultrarapid CYP2D6 metabolizers. We reviewed the electronic health record of these patients for indications of poor pain control or adverse symptoms related to medication use. Associations between phenotype and outcomes were assessed using Chi-square tests and logistic regression.Results: Overall, 257 (25% of RIGHT Protocol participants) patients received at least one opioid prescription; of these, 40 (15%) were poor metabolizers, 146 (57%) were intermediate to extensive metabolizers, and 71 (28%) were ultrarapid metabolizers. We removed patients that were prescribed a CYP2D6 inhibitor medication (n=38). After adjusting for age and sex, patients with a poor or ultrarapid phenotype were 2.7 times more likely to experience either poor pain control or an adverse symptom related to the prescription compared to patients with an intermediate to extensive phenotype (odds ratio: 2.68; 95% CI: 1.39, 5.17; p=0.003).Conclusion: Our results suggest that >30% of patients with a poor or ultrarapid CYP2D6 phenotype may experience an adverse outcome after being prescribed codeine, tramadol, oxycodone, or hydrocodone. These medications are frequently prescribed for pain relief, and ~39% of the US population is expected to carry one of these phenotypes, suggesting that the population-level impact of these gene–drug interactions could be substantial. Keywords: CYP2D6, opioid, phenotype, adverse effects

Lila J Finney Rutten,1,2 Megan A Morris,1,2 Lisa M Schrader,1 Sheila M Manemann,2 Jyotishman Pathak,1,2 Robert Dimler,3 Veronique L Roger1,2 1Robert D and Patricia E Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 2Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester MN, USA; 3The Rochester Coronary Club, Inc., Rochester MN, USA Abstract: Movement toward patient-centered health care must be supported by an evidence base informed by greater patient engagement in research. Efforts to better understand patients’ interest in and perspectives on involvement in the research process are fundamental to supporting movement of research programs toward greater patient engagement. We describe preliminary efforts to engage members of a community group of patients living with heart disease to better understand their interest and perspectives on involvement in research. A semi-structured focus group guide was developed to probe willingness to participate in the following three phases of research: preparation, execution, and translation. The focus group discussion, and our summary of key messages gleaned from said discussion, was organized around the phases of research that patients may be involved in, with the goal of delineating degrees of interest expressed for engagement in each phase. Consistent with what is known from the literature, a clear preference for engagement during the preparation and translation phase of the research process emerged. This preliminary conversation will guide our ongoing research efforts toward greater inclusion of patients throughout the research process. Keywords: patient engagement, phases of research, patient-centered care, research translation

Objectives. To determine the requirement and time to mechanical ventilation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU), hospitalization and hospitalization time, death and disability of the axonal variants of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) in comparison with the acute demyelinating variant in patients of all the ages. Materials and methods. The systematic review that included patients with GBS. The exposure variable was the axonal variants and the comparator was acute inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy (AIDP). The outcomes were the requirement and time on mechanical ventilation (MV), requirement and time in the ICU, hospitalization time, disability and death. The NewCasttle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to assess risk of bias. A meta-analysis was conducted to calculate mean differences and relative risks (RR) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) using inverse variances and random effects models. Results. Of the 3116 articles found, 46 met the selection criteria. The time on MV was 7.42 days (95% CI: 0.36 to 1.48) and the hospitalization time was 3.11 (95% CI: 0.73 to 5.49) days for the axonal variants. The axonal variants had a RR of 0.47 (95% CI: 0.24 to 0.92) for the requirement of MV in adults, but it was 1.68 (95% CI: 1.25 to 2.25) in children. There was a high statistical heterogeneity. Conclusions. Axonal variants showed, on average, longer MV and hospitalization time, overall and by subgroups. A high MV requirement was found for axonal variants in children; it was lower for adults.

Background: Although breast cancer survivors are at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) from treatment late effects, evidence to inform long-term and age-specific cardiovascular surveillance recommendations is lacking., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 10 211 women diagnosed with first primary unilateral breast cancer in Kaiser Permanente Washington or Colorado (aged 20 years and older, survived ≥1 year). We estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between initial chemotherapy regimen type (anthracycline and/or trastuzumab, other chemotherapies, no chemotherapy [referent]) and CVD risk, adjusted for patient characteristics, other treatments, and CVD risk factors. Cumulative incidence was calculated considering competing events., Results: After 5.79 median years, 14.67% of women developed CVD (cardiomyopathy and/or heart failure [HF], ischemic heart disease, stroke). Women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab had a higher risk of CVD compared with no chemotherapy (adjusted HR = 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.31 to 1.79), persisting at least 5 years postdiagnosis (adjusted HR5-<10 years = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.44 to 2.39; adjusted HR≥10 years = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.49). Cardiomyopathy and/or HF risks were elevated among women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab compared with no chemotherapy, especially for those aged younger than 65 years (adjusted HR20-54years = 2.97, 95% CI = 1.72 to 5.12; adjusted HR55-64years = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.52 to 3.21), differing for older women (adjusted HR≥65 years = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.78), and at least 5 years postdiagnosis (adjusted HR5-<10years = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.35 to 2.64; adjusted HR≥10 years = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.52 to 3.20). Anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab receipt was associated with increased ischemic heart disease risks after 5 or more years (adjusted HR5-<10years = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.14; adjusted HR≥10 years = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.18 to 2.93) with no clear age effects, and stroke risk (adjusted HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.69), which did not vary by time or age. There was some evidence of long-term cardiomyopathy and/or HF and ischemic heart disease risks with other chemotherapies. Among women aged younger than 65 treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab, up to 16% developed CVD by 10 years (20-54 years = 6.91%; 55-64 years = 16.00%), driven by cardiomyopathy and/or HF (20-54 years = 3.90%; 55-64 years = 9.78%)., Conclusions: We found increased long-term risks of cardiomyopathy and/or HF and ischemic heart disease among breast cancer survivors treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab and increased cardiomyopathy and/or HF risk among women aged younger than 65 years., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial., Methods: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics., Results: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic., Conclusions: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Background: Genetic susceptibility to various chronic diseases has been shown to influence heart failure (HF) risk. However, the underlying biological pathways, particularly the role of leukocyte telomere length (LTL), are largely unknown. We investigated the impact of genetic susceptibility to chronic diseases and various traits on HF risk, and whether LTL mediates or modifies the pathways., Methods: We conducted prospective cohort analyses on 404 883 European participants from the UK Biobank, including 9989 incident HF cases. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate associations between HF risk and 24 polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for various diseases or traits previously generated using a Bayesian approach. We assessed multiplicative interactions between the PRSs and LTL previously measured in the UK Biobank using quantitative PCR. Causal mediation analyses were conducted to estimate the proportion of the total effect of PRSs acting indirectly through LTL, an integrative marker of biological aging., Results: We identified 9 PRSs associated with HF risk, including those for various cardiovascular diseases or traits, rheumatoid arthritis (P = 1.3E-04), and asthma (P = 1.8E-08). Additionally, longer LTL was strongly associated with decreased HF risk (P-trend = 1.7E-08). Notably, LTL strengthened the asthma-HF relationship significantly (P-interaction = 2.8E-03). However, LTL mediated only 1.13% (P < 0.001) of the total effect of the asthma PRS on HF risk., Conclusions: Our findings shed light onto the shared genetic susceptibility between HF risk, asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, and other traits. Longer LTL strengthened the genetic effect of asthma in the pathway to HF. These results support consideration of LTL and PRSs in HF risk prediction., (Published by Oxford University Press 2024.)

Background: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Friedewald, Sampson, and Martin-Hopkins equations are used to calculate LDL-C. This study compares the impact of switching between these equations in a large geographically defined population., Materials and Methods: Data for individuals who had a lipid panel ordered clinically between 2010 and 2019 were included. Comparisons were made across groups using the two-sample t-test or chi-square test as appropriate. Discordances between LDL measures based on clinically actionable thresholds were summarized using contingency tables., Results: The cohort included 198,166 patients (mean age 54 years, 54% female). The equations perform similarly at the lower range of triglycerides but began to diverge at a triglyceride level of 125 mg/dL. However, at triglycerides of 175 mg/dL and higher, the Martin-Hopkins equation estimated higher LDL-C values than the Samson equation. This discordance was further exasperated at triglyceride values of 400 to 800 mg/dL. When comparing the Sampson and Friedewald equations, at triglycerides are below 175 mg/dL, 9% of patients were discordant at the 70 mg/dL cutpoint, whereas 42.4% were discordant when triglycerides are between 175 and 400 mg/dL. Discordance was observed at the clinically actionable LDL-C cutpoint of 190 mg/dL with the Friedewald equation estimating lower LDL-C than the other equations. In a high-risk subgroup (ASCVD risk score > 20%), 16.3% of patients were discordant at the clinical cutpoint of LDL-C < 70 mg/dL between the Sampson and Friedewald equations., Conclusions: Discordance at clinically significant LDL-C cutpoints in both the general population and high-risk subgroups were observed across the three equations. These results show that using different methods of LDL-C calculation or switching between different methods could have clinical implications for many patients., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation., Methods: We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of 6 lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality., Results: Among 1382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one-standard-deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89), suggesting that the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size., Conclusions: LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) risk is greater in rural versus urban regions in the United States (US), potentially due to differences in healthcare coverage and access. Whether this excess risk applies to countries with universal healthcare is unclear and the underlying biological mechanisms are unknown. In the prospective United Kingdom (UK) Biobank, we investigated urban-rural regional differences in HF risk and the mechanistic role of biological aging., Methods: Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident HF in relation to residential urban-rural region and a Biological Health Score (BHS) that reflects biological aging from environmental, social, or dietary stressors. We estimated the proportion of the total effect of urban-rural region on HF mediated through BHS., Results: Among 417,441 European participants, 10,332 incident HF cases were diagnosed during the follow-up. Compared to participants in large urban regions of Scotland, those in England/Wales had significantly increased HF risk (smaller urban: HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.64-2.03; suburban: HR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.56-2.01; very rural: HR = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.39-1.85). Additionally, we found a dose-response relationship between increased biological aging and HF risk (HR per 1 SD increase  = 1.14 (95%CI: 1.12-1.17). Increased biological aging mediated a notable 6.6% ( p  < 0.001) of the total effect of urban-rural region on HF., Conclusion: Despite universal healthcare in the UK, disparities in HF risk by region were observed and may be partly explained by environmental, social, or dietary factors related to biological aging. Our study contributes to precision public health by informing potential biological targets for intervention., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wong, Blechter, Rodriquez, Shearer, Breeze, Pérez-Stable and Roger.)

Background: Multimorbidity and functional limitation are associated with poor outcomes in heart failure (HF). However, the individual and combined effect of these on health-related quality of life in patients with HF is not well understood., Methods: Patients aged ≥30 years with two or more HF diagnostic codes and one or more HF-related prescription drugs from four U.S. institutions were mailed a survey to measure patient-centric factors including functional status (activities of daily living [ADLs]) and health-related quality of life (PROMIS-29 Health Profile). Patients with HF from January 1, 2013 to February 1, 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as ≥2 non-cardiovascular comorbidities; functional limitation as any limitation in at least one of eight ADLs. Patients were categorized into four groups by multimorbidity (Yes/No) and functional limitation (Yes/No). We dichotomized the PROMIS-29 sub-scale scores at the median and calculated odd ratios for the four multimorbidity/functional limitation groups., Results: A total of 3330 patients with HF returned the survey (response rate 31%); 3020 completed the questions of interest and were retained. Among these patients (45% female; mean age 73 [standard deviation: 12] years), 29% had neither multimorbidity nor functional limitation, 24% had multimorbidity only, 22% had functional limitation only, and 25% had both. After adjustment, having functional limitation only was associated with higher anxiety (odds ratio [OR]: 3.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.66-4.45), depression (OR: 3.11, 95% CI: 2.39-4.06), and fatigue (OR: 4.19, 95% CI: 3.25-5.40); worse sleep (OR: 2.14, 95% CI: 1.69-2.72) and pain (OR: 6.73, 95% CI: 5.15-8.78); and greater difficulty with social activities (OR: 9.40, 95% CI: 7.19-12.28) compared with having neither. Results were similar for having both multimorbidity and functional limitation., Conclusion: Patients with only functional limitation have similar poor health-related quality of life scores as those with both multimorbidity and functional limitation, underscoring the important role that physical functioning plays in the well-being of patients with HF., (© 2024 The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) and kidney disease frequently co-occur, increasing mortality risk. The cardiorenal syndrome results from damage to either the heart or kidney impacting the other organ. The epidemiology of cardiorenal syndrome among the general population is incompletely characterized and despite shared risk factors with HF, differences in mortality risk across key demographics have not been well described. Thus, the primary goal of this study was to analyze annual trends in cardiorenal-related mortality, evaluate if these trends differed by age, sex, and race or ethnicity, and describe these trends against a backdrop of HF mortality., Methods and Findings: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research database was used to examine cardiorenal- and HF-related mortality in the US between 2011and 2020. International Classification of Diseases, 10 Revision codes were used to classify cardiorenal-related deaths (I13.x) and HF-related deaths (I11.0, I13.0, I13.2, and I50.x), among decedents aged 15 years or older. Decedents were further stratified by age group, sex, race, or ethnicity. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 persons were calculated. A total of 97,135 cardiorenal-related deaths and 3,453,655 HF-related deaths occurred. Cardiorenal-related mortality (AAMR, 3.26; 95% CI: 3.23-3.28) was significantly lower than HF-related mortality (AAMR, 115.7; 95% CI: 115.6-115.8). The annual percent change (APC) was greater and increased over time for cardiorenal-related mortality (2011-2015: APC, 7.1%; 95% CI: 0.7-13.9%; 2015-2020: APC, 19.7%, 95% CI: 16.3-23.2%), whereas HF-related mortality also increased over that time period, but at a consistently lower rate (2011-2020: APC, 2.4%; 95% CI: 1.7-3.1%). Mortality was highest among older and male decedents for both causes. Cardiorenal-related deaths were more common in non-Hispanic or Latino Blacks compared to Whites, but similar rates were observed for HF-related mortality. A larger proportion of cardiorenal-related deaths, compared to HF-related deaths, listed cardiorenal syndrome as the underlying cause of death (67.0% vs. 1.2%)., Conclusions: HF-related deaths substantially outnumber cardiorenal-related deaths; however, cardiorenal-related deaths are increasing at an alarming rate with the highest burden among non-Hispanic or Latino Blacks. Continued surveillance of cardiorenal-related mortality trends is critical and future studies that contain detailed biomarker and social determinants of health information are needed to identify mechanisms underlying differences in mortality trends., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

Background: Most patients with heart failure (HF) have multimorbidity which may cause difficulties with self-management. Understanding the resources patients draw upon to effectively manage their health is fundamental to designing new practice models to improve outcomes in HF. We describe the rationale, conceptual framework, and implementation of a multi-center survey of HF patients, characterize differences between responders and non-responders, and summarize patient characteristics and responses to the survey constructs among responders., Methods: This was a multi-center cross-sectional survey study with linked electronic health record (EHR) data. Our survey was guided by the Chronic Care Model to understand the distribution of patient-centric factors, including health literacy, social support, self-management, and functional and mental status in patients with HF. Most questions were from existing validated questionnaires. The survey was administered to HF patients aged ≥ 30 years from 4 health systems in PCORnet® (the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network): Essentia Health, Intermountain Health, Mayo Clinic, and The Ohio State University. Each health system mapped their EHR data to a standardized PCORnet Common Data Model, which was used to extract demographic and clinical data on survey responders and non-responders., Results: Across the 4 sites, 10,662 patients with HF were invited to participate, and 3330 completed the survey (response rate: 31%). Responders were older (74 vs. 71 years; standardized difference (95% CI): 0.18 (0.13, 0.22)), less racially diverse (3% vs. 12% non-White; standardized difference (95% CI): -0.32 (-0.36, -0.28)), and had higher prevalence of many chronic conditions than non-responders, and thus may not be representative of all HF patients. The internal reliability of the validated questionnaires in our survey was good (range of Cronbach's alpha: 0.50-0.96). Responders reported their health was generally good or fair, they frequently had cardiovascular comorbidities, > 50% had difficulty climbing stairs, and > 10% reported difficulties with bathing, preparing meals, and using transportation. Nearly 80% of patients had family or friends sit with them during a doctor visit, and 54% managed their health by themselves. Patients reported generally low perceived support for self-management related to exercise and diet., Conclusions: More than half of patients with HF managed their health by themselves. Increased understanding of self-management resources may guide the development of interventions to improve HF outcomes., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Clinical risk scores are used to identify those at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Despite preventative efforts, residual risk remains for many individuals. Very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) and lipid discordance could be contributors to the residual risk of ASCVD., Methods and Results: Cardiovascular disease-free residents, aged ≥40 years, living in Olmsted County, Minnesota, were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and VLDL-C were estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels using the Sampson equation. Participants were categorized into concordant and discordant lipid pairings based on clinical cut points. Rates of incident ASCVD, including percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, or myocardial infarction, were calculated during follow-up. The association of LDL-C and VLDL-C with ASCVD was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was assessed. The study population (n=39 098) was primarily White race (94%) and female sex (57%), with a mean age of 54 years. VLDL-C (per 10-mg/dL increase) was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09]; P <0.001]) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was not statistically significant ( P =0.11). Discordant individuals with high VLDL-C and low LDL-C experienced the highest rate of incident ASCVD events, 16.9 per 1000 person-years, during follow-up., Conclusions: VLDL-C and lipid discordance are associated with a greater risk of ASCVD and can be estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels to improve ASCVD risk assessment.

Background: Frailty is common in heart failure (HF) and is associated with death but not routinely captured clinically. Frailty is linked with inflammation and malnutrition, which can be assessed by a novel plasma multimarker score: the metabolic vulnerability index (MVX). We sought to evaluate the associations between frailty and MVX and their prognostic impact., Methods and Results: In an HF community cohort (2003-2012), we measured frailty as a proportion of deficits present out of 32 physical limitations and comorbidities, MVX by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and collected extensive longitudinal clinical data. Patients were categorized by frailty score (≤0.14, >0.14 and ≤0.27, >0.27) and MVX score (≤50, >50 and ≤60, >60 and ≤70, >70). Cox models estimated associations of frailty and MVX with death, adjusted for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Uno's C-statistic measured the incremental value of MVX beyond frailty and clinical factors. Weibull's accelerated failure time regression assessed whether MVX mediated the association between frailty and death. We studied 985 patients (median age, 77; 48% women). Frailty and MVX were weakly correlated (Spearman's ρ=0.21). The highest frailty group experienced an increased rate of death, independent of MVX, MAGGIC score, and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 3.3 [95% CI, 2.5-4.2]). Frailty improved Uno's c-statistic beyond MAGGIC score and NT-proBNP (0.69-0.73). MVX only mediated 3.3% and 4.5% of the association between high and medium frailty groups and death, respectively., Conclusions: In this HF cohort, frailty and MVX are weakly correlated. Both independently contribute to stratifying the risk of death, suggesting that they capture distinct domains of vulnerability in HF.

Background: Heart failure is heterogeneous syndrome with persistently high mortality. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy enables high-throughput metabolomics, suitable for precision phenotyping. We aimed to use targeted metabolomics to derive a metabolic risk score (MRS) that improved mortality risk stratification in heart failure., Methods: Nuclear magnetic resonance was used to measure 21 metabolites (lipoprotein subspecies, branched-chain amino acids, alanine, GlycA (glycoprotein acetylation), ketone bodies, glucose, and citrate) in plasma collected from a heart failure community cohort. The MRS was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalized Cox regression and temporal validation. The association between the MRS and mortality and whether risk stratification was improved over the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure clinical risk score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels were assessed., Results: The study included 1382 patients (median age, 78 years, 52% men, 43% reduced ejection fraction) with a 5-year survival rate of 48% (95% CI, 46%-51%). The MRS included 9 metabolites measured. In the validation data set, a 1 standard deviation increase in the MRS was associated with a large increased rate of death (hazard ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.9-2.5]) that remained after adjustment for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]). These associations did not differ by ejection fraction. The integrated discrimination and net reclassification indices, and Uno's C statistic, indicated that the addition of the MRS improved discrimination over Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure and NT-proBNP., Conclusions: This MRS developed in a heart failure community cohort was associated with a large excess risk of death and improved risk stratification beyond an established risk score and clinical markers., Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr Connelly is an employee of and holds stock in Labcorp. Dr Otvos is a consultant, stockholder, and former employee of Labcorp. The other authors report no conflicts.

Aims: Serum sex hormones have been linked to cardiovascular disease risk. However, their roles in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF) in both men and women are unclear. We investigated the associations between free androgen, testosterone, and estradiol, and future risk of HF., Methods and Results: This prospective cohort study evaluated UK Biobank participants free of prevalent cardiovascular disease and HF at baseline. Unitless free androgen, testosterone, and estradiol indices were generated using serum concentrations of total testosterone (nmol/L), estradiol (pmol/L), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG, nmol/L), and albumin (g/L) in blood collected at enrolment. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident HF in relation to quartiles (Q) of free androgen (FAI), testosterone (FTI), estradiol (FEI) indices, and potential confounders. There were 180 712 men (including 5585 HF cases with FAI and 571 HF cases with FEI), and 177 324 women (including 2858 HF cases with FAI and 314 HF cases with FEI) with complete data. Increased FAI was associated with decreased HF risk in both men (HR Q4 vs. Q1 : 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94, p-trend continuous  < 0.0001) and post-menopausal women (HR Q4 vs. Q1 : 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95). Similar inverse associations were observed for FTI only in men (HR Q4 vs. Q1 : 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Higher FEI was significantly associated with decreased HF risk among men (HR Q4 vs. Q1 : 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98), but was positively associated among pre-menopausal women (HR Q4 vs. Q1 : 2.16, 95% CI 1.11-4.18)., Conclusions: Sex hormones potentially influence HF pathogenesis and may offer pathways for interventions., (Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

National or statewide estimates of excess deaths have limited value to understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic regionally. We assessed excess deaths in a 9-county geographically defined population that had low rates of COVID-19 and widescale availability of testing early in the pandemic, well-annotated clinical data, and coverage by 2 medical examiner's offices. We compared mortality rates (MRs) per 100,000 person-years in 2020 and 2021 with those in the 2019 reference period and MR ratios (MRRs). In 2020 and 2021, 177 and 219 deaths, respectively, were attributed to COVID-19 (MR = 52 and 66 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). COVID-19 MRs were highest in males, older persons, those living in rural areas, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. Compared with 2019, we observed a 10% excess death rate in 2020 (MRR = 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.15]), with excess deaths in females, older adults, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. In contrast, we did not observe excess deaths overall in 2021 compared with 2019 (MRR = 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.10]). However, those aged 18 to 39 years (MRR = 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.80) and those with 0 or 1 chronic condition (MRR = 1.28 [95% CI, 1.05 to 1.56]) or 7 or more chronic conditions (MRR = 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.15]) had increased mortality compared with 2019. This work highlights the value of leveraging regional populations that experienced a similar pandemic wave timeline, mitigation strategies, testing availability, and data quality., (Copyright © 2023 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Inflammation and protein energy malnutrition are associated with heart failure (HF) mortality. The metabolic vulnerability index (MVX) is derived from markers of inflammation and malnutrition and measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. MVX has not been examined in HF., Objectives: The authors sought to examine the prognostic value of MVX in patients with HF., Methods: The authors prospectively assembled a population-based cohort of patients with HF from 2003 to 2012 and measured MVX scores with a nuclear magnetic resonance scan from plasma collected at enrollment. Patients were divided into 4 MVX score groups and followed until March 31, 2021., Results: The authors studied 1,382 patients (median age: 78 years; 48% women). The median MVX score was 64.6. Patients with higher MVX were older, more likely to be male, have atrial fibrillation, have higher NYHA functional class, and have HF duration of >18 months. Higher MVX was associated with mortality independent of Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score, ejection fraction, and other prognostic biomarkers. Compared to those with the lowest MVX, the HRs for MVX groups 2, 3, and 4 were 1.2 (95% CI: 0.9-1.4), 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-2.0), and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.2), respectively (P trend  < 0.001). Measures of model improvement document the added value of MVX in HF for classifying the risk of death beyond the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and other biomarkers., Conclusions: In this HF community cohort, MVX was strongly associated with mortality independently of established clinical factors and improved mortality risk classification beyond clinically validated markers. These data underscore the potential of MVX to stratify risk in HF., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures The investigators were supported by the Intramural Research program of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health. This study also used in part the resources from the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records linkage system, which is supported by the National Institute on Aging (AG 058738), by the Mayo Clinic Research Committee, and by fees paid annually by Rochester Epidemiology Project users. The funding institution did not play a role in the design, conduct, analysis, or reporting or in the decision to submit this manuscript for publication. The study was approved by the Mayo Clinic and Olmsted Medical Center Institutional Review Boards. Dr Connelly is an employee of and holds stock in LabCorp. Dr Otvos is a consultant, stockholder, and former employee of LabCorp. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background and Aims: The incidence and outcomes of high bleeding risk (HBR) patients in a community cohort according to the Academic Research Consortium (ARC) criteria is not known. We hypothesized that HBR is common and associated with worse outcomes for all-comers with myocardial infarction., Methods: We prospectively collected all patients with cardiac troponin T > 99th percentile upper limit of normal (≥0.01 ng/mL) in Olmsted County between 2003 and 2012. Events were retrospectively classified as type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI), type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI), or myocardial injury. Patients were further classified as HBR based on the "ARC-HBR definition." Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, stroke, and major bleeding., Results: 2419 patients were included in the final study; 1365 were classified as T1MI and 1054 as T2MI. Patients were followed for a median of 5.5 years. ARC-HBR was more common in T2MI than T1MI (73% vs 46%, p < 0.001). Among patients with T1MI, HBR was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 3.7, 95% CI 3.2-4.5, p < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (4.7, 3.6-6.3, p < 0.001), recurrent MI (2.1, 1.6-2.7, p < 0.001), stroke (4.9, 2.9-8.4, p < 0.001), and major bleeding (6.5, 3.7-11.4, p < 0.001). For T2MI, HBR was similarly associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.5, p < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (2.7, 1.8-4.0, p < 0.001), recurrent MI (1.7, 1.1-2.6, p = 0.02) and major bleeding (HR 15.6, 3.8-63.8, p < 0.001)., Conclusion: HBR is common among unselected patients with T1MI and T2MI and is associated with increased overall and cardiovascular mortality, recurrent cardiovascular events, and major bleeding on long-term follow up., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with persistently high mortality. High-throughput proteomic technologies offer new opportunities to improve HF risk stratification, but their contribution remains to be clearly defined. We aimed to systematically review prognostic studies using high-throughput proteomics to identify protein signatures associated with HF mortality., Methods: We searched four databases and two clinical trial registries for articles published from 2012 to 2023. HF proteomics studies measuring high numbers of proteins using aptamer or antibody-based affinity platforms on human plasma or serum with outcomes of all-cause or cardiovascular death were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A third reviewer resolved conflicts. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure tool., Results: Out of 5131 unique articles identified, nine articles were included in the review. The nine studies were observational; three used the aptamer platform, and six used the antibody platform. We found considerable heterogeneity across studies in measurement panels, HF definitions, ejection fraction categorization, follow-up duration, and outcome definitions, and a lack of risk estimates for most protein associations. Hence, we proceeded with a systematic review rather than a meta-analysis. In two comparable aptamer studies in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, 21 proteins were identified in common for the association with all-cause death. Among these, one protein, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 was also reported in an antibody study on HFrEF and for the association with CV death. We proposed standardized reporting criteria to facilitate the interpretation of future studies., Conclusions: In this systematic review of nine studies evaluating the association of proteomics with mortality in HF, we identified a limited number of proteins common across several studies. Heterogeneity across studies compromised drawing broad inferences, underscoring the importance of standardized approaches to reporting., (© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.)

Background: The relationship between ketone bodies (KB) and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) syndrome has not been well established., Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the distribution of KB in HF, identify clinical correlates, and examine the associations between plasma KB and all-cause mortality in a population-based HF cohort., Methods: The plasma KB levels were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations between clinical correlates and KB levels. Proportional hazard regression was employed to examine associations between KB (represented as both continuous and categorical variables) and mortality, with adjustment for several clinical covariates., Results: Among the 1,382 HF patients with KB measurements, the median (IQR) age was 78 (68, 84) and 52% were men. The median (IQR) KB was found to be 180 (134, 308) μM. Higher KB levels were associated with advanced HF (NYHA class III-IV) and higher NT-proBNP levels (both P  < 0.001). The median follow-up was 13.9 years, and the 5-year mortality rate was 51.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 49.1%-54.4%]. The risk of death increased when KB levels were higher (HR high vs. low group 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05-1.44), independently of a validated clinical risk score. The association between higher KB and mortality differed by ejection fraction (EF) and was noticeably stronger among patients with preserved EF., Conclusions: Most patients with HF exhibited KB levels that were consistent with those found in healthy adults. Elevated levels of KB were observed in patients with advanced HF. Higher KB levels were found to be associated with an increased risk of death, particularly in patients with preserved EF., Competing Interests: MC is an employee of and holds stocks in LabCorp. JO is a consultant, stockholder, and former employee of LabCorp. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest, (© 2024 Oyetoro, Conners, Joo, Turecamo, Sampson, Wolska, Remaley, Otvos, Connelly, Larson, Bielinski, Hashemian, Shearer and Roger.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit., Objective: To develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF., Design: Community-based cohort., Setting: Southeast Minnesota., Participants: Patients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021., Measurements: A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and N -terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide., Results: The development ( n = 855; median age, 78 years; 50% women; 29% with ejection fraction <40%) and validation cohorts ( n = 496; median age, 76 years; 45% women; 33% with ejection fraction <40%) were mostly similar. In the development cohort, 38 unique proteins were selected for the protein risk score. Independent of ejection fraction, the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration, reclassified mortality risk particularly at the extremes of the risk distribution, and showed greater clinical utility compared with the clinical model., Limitation: Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations., Conclusion: Validation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score's performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions., Primary Funding Source: Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health., Competing Interests: Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M23-2328.

Background and Aims: Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is the most common congenital heart anomaly. Lifetime morbidity and whether long-term survival varies according to BAV patient-sub-groups are unknown. This study aimed to assess lifetime morbidity and long-term survival in BAV patients in the community., Methods: The authors retrospectively identified all Olmsted County (Minnesota) residents with an echocardiographic diagnosis of BAV from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2009, including patients with typical valvulo-aortopathy (BAV without accelerated valvulo-aortopathy or associated disorders), and those with complex valvulo-aortopathy (BAV with accelerated valvulo-aortopathy or associated disorders)., Results: 652 consecutive diagnosed BAV patients [median (IQR) age 37 (22-53) years; 525 (81%) adult and 127 (19%) paediatric] were followed for a median (IQR) of 19.1 (12.9-25.8) years. The total cumulative lifetime morbidity burden (from birth to age 90) was 86% (95% CI 82.5-89.7); cumulative lifetime progression to ≥ moderate aortic stenosis or regurgitation, aortic valve surgery, aortic aneurysm ≥45 mm or z-score ≥3, aorta surgery, infective endocarditis and aortic dissection was 80.3%, 68.5%, 75.4%, 27%, 6% and 1.6%, respectively. Survival of patients with typical valvulo-aortopathy [562 (86%), age 40 (28-55) years, 86% adults] was similar to age-sex-matched Minnesota population (P = .12). Conversely, survival of patients with complex valvulo-aortopathy [90 (14%), age 14 (3-26) years, 57% paediatric] was lower than expected, with a relative excess mortality risk of 2.25 (95% CI 1.21-4.19) (P = .01)., Conclusion: The BAV condition exhibits a high lifetime morbidity burden where valvulo-aortopathy is close to unavoidable by age 90. The lifetime incidence of infective endocarditis is higher than that of aortic dissection. The most common BAV clinical presentation is the typical valvulo-aortopathy with preserved expected long-term survival, while the complex valvulo-aortopathy presentation incurs higher mortality., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background Heart failure (HF) is a complex disease that contributes to a high number of hospitalizations, deaths, and economic health care costs each year. However, among patients with HF, there is a lack of awareness of their HF diagnosis that has not been fully examined. Methods and Results Residents from 3 counties of southeast Minnesota with a first-ever International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD-9 ) code 428 or Tenth Revision ( ICD-10 ) code I50 between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2016 (N=2461) were prospectively surveyed to measure HF self-awareness. A total of 1114 patients returned the survey (response rate, 45%), and 787 had validated HF upon medical record review. Among these 787 patients with HF (mean age, 76 years; 53% men), 37% (n=293) were aware of their HF diagnosis. After adjustment, being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.56 [95% CI, 1.10-2.22]), having HF with reduced ejection fraction (OR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.13-2.22]), attending the HF clinic (OR, 4.07 [95% CI, 2.25-7.36]), and having coronary artery disease (OR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.16-2.37]) were all associated with increased awareness of an HF diagnosis. Conversely, having diabetes was associated with decreased awareness of an HF diagnosis (adjusted OR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.95]). Conclusions Awareness of an HF diagnosis is low in a community population of patients with HF. Strategies to improve patient awareness of their diagnosis should be implemented to improve self-care behaviors and outcomes in patients with HF.

Background: Morbidity and mortality related to heart failure are increasing and disparities are widening. These alarming trends, often confounded by access to care, are poorly understood. This study evaluates the prevalence of all stages of heart failure by race and socioeconomic status in an environment with no access barrier to care., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study of adult beneficiaries aged 18 to 64 years of the Military Health System (MHS), a model for universal health care for fiscal years 2018-2019. We calculated prevalence of preclinical (stages A/B) or clinical (stages C/D) heart failure stages as defined by professional guidelines. Results were analyzed by age, race, and socioeconomic status (using military rank as a proxy)., Results: Among 5,440,761 MHS beneficiaries aged 18 to 64 years, prevalence of preclinical and clinical heart failure was 18.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Persons with preclinical heart failure were middle aged, with similar proportions of men and women, while those with heart failure were older, mainly men. After multivariable adjustment, male sex (1.35 odds ratio [OR] [preclinical]; 1.95 OR [clinical]), Black race (1.64 OR [preclinical]; 1.88 OR [clinical]) and lower socioeconomic status were significantly associated with large increases in the prevalence of all stages of heart failure., Conclusion: All stages of heart failure are highly prevalent among MHS beneficiaries of working age and, in an environment with no access barrier to care, there are striking disparities by race and socioeconomic status. The high prevalence of preclinical heart failure, particularly notable among Black beneficiaries, delineates a critical time window for prevention., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

To evaluate preconception health and adverse pregnancy outcome (APO) awareness in a large population-based registry. We examined data from the Fertility and Pregnancy Survey of the American Heart Association Research Goes Red Registry to questions regarding prenatal health care experiences, postpartum health, and awareness of the association of APOs with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Among postmenopausal individuals, 37% were unaware that APOs were associated with long-term CVD risk, significantly varying by race-ethnicity. Fifty-nine percent of participants were not educated regarding this association by their providers, and 37% reported providers not assessing pregnancy history during current visits, significantly varying by race-ethnicity, income, and access to care. Only 37.1% of respondents were aware that CVD was the leading cause of maternal mortality. There is an urgent, ongoing need for more education on APOs and CVD risk, to improve the health-care experiences and postpartum health outcomes of pregnant individuals., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: Prevention strategies for Alzheimer disease and Alzheimer disease-related dementias (AD/ADRDs) are urgently needed. Lipid variability, or fluctuations in blood lipid levels at different points in time, has not been examined extensively and may contribute to the risk of AD/ADRD. Lipid panels are a part of routine screening in clinical practice and routinely available in electronic health records (EHR). Thus, in a large geographically defined population-based cohort, we investigated the variation of multiple lipid types and their association to the development of AD/ADRD., Methods: All residents living in Olmsted County, Minnesota on the index date January 1, 2006, aged 60 years or older without an AD/ADRD diagnosis were identified. Persons with ≥3 lipid measurements including total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in the 5 years before index date were included. Lipid variation was defined as any change in individual's lipid levels over time regardless of direction and was measured using variability independent of the mean (VIM). Associations between lipid variation quintiles and incident AD/ADRD were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Participants were followed through 2018 for incident AD/ADRD., Results: The final analysis included 11,571 participants (mean age 71 years; 54% female). Median follow-up was 12.9 years with 2,473 incident AD/ADRD cases. After adjustment for confounding variables including sex, race, baseline lipid measurements, education, BMI, and lipid-lowering treatment, participants in the highest quintile of total cholesterol variability had a 19% increased risk of incident AD/ADRD, and those in highest quintile of triglycerides, variability had a 23% increased risk., Discussion: In a large EHR derived cohort, those in the highest quintile of variability for total cholesterol and triglyceride levels had an increased risk of incident AD/ADRD. Further studies to identify the mechanisms behind this association are needed., (Written work prepared by employees of the Federal Government as part of their official duties is, under the U.S. Copyright Act, a “work of the United States Government” for which copyright protection under Title 17 of the United States Code is not available. As such, copyright does not extend to the contributions of employees of the Federal Government.)

Background Among patients with heart failure (HF), social risk factors (SRFs) are associated with poor outcomes. However, less is known about how co-occurrence of SRFs affect all-cause health care utilization for patients with HF. The objective was to address this gap using a novel approach to classify co-occurrence of SRFs. Methods and Results This was a cohort study of residents living in an 11-county region of southeast Minnesota, aged ≥18 years with a first-ever diagnosis for HF between January 2013 and June 2017. SRFs, including education, health literacy, social isolation, and race and ethnicity, were obtained via surveys. Area-deprivation index and rural-urban commuting area codes were determined from patient addresses. Associations between SRFs and outcomes (emergency department visits and hospitalizations) were assessed using Andersen-Gill models. Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of SRFs; associations with outcomes were examined. A total of 3142 patients with HF (mean age, 73.4 years; 45% women) had SRF data available. The SRFs with the strongest association with hospitalizations were education, social isolation, and area-deprivation index. We identified 4 groups using latent class analysis, with group 3, characterized by more SRFs, at increased risk of emergency department visits (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 1.23-1.45]) and hospitalizations (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.28-1.58]). Conclusions Low educational attainment, high social isolation, and high area-deprivation index had the strongest associations. We identified meaningful subgroups with respect to SRFs, and these subgroups were associated with outcomes. These findings suggest that it is possible to apply latent class analysis to better understand the co-occurrence of SRFs among patients with HF.

Objective: To compare the 1-year health care utilization and mortality in persons living with heart failure (HF) before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic., Patients and Methods: Residents of a 9-county area in southeastern Minnesota aged 18 years or older with a HF diagnosis on January 1, 2019; January 1, 2020; and January 1, 2021, were identified and followed up for 1-year for vital status, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations., Results: We identified 5631 patients with HF (mean age, 76 years; 53% men) on January 1, 2019, 5996 patients (mean age, 76 years; 52% men) on January 1, 2020, and 6162 patients (mean age, 75 years; 54% men) on January 1, 2021. After adjustment for comorbidities and risk factors, patients with HF in 2020 and patients with HF in 2021 experienced similar risks of mortality compared with those in 2019. After adjustment, patients with HF in 2020 and 2021 were less likely to experience all-cause hospitalizations (2020: rate ratio [RR], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.81-0.95; 2021: RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.97) compared with patients in 2019. Patients with HF in 2020 were also less likely to experience ED visits (RR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80-0.92)., Conclusion: In this large population-based study in southeastern Minnesota, we observed an approximately 10% decrease in hospitalizations among patients with HF in 2020 and 2021 and a 15% decrease in ED visits in 2020 compared with those in 2019. Despite the change in health care utilization, we found no difference in the 1-year mortality between patients with HF in 2020 and those in 2021 compared with those in 2019. It is unknown whether any longer-term consequences will be observed., Competing Interests: Given his role as an Editorial Board Member, Dr Paul Takahashi, was not involved in the peer-review of this article and had no access to information regarding its peer-review. All other authors report no potential competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19 have included public space closures, mask usage, and quarantining. Studies regarding the impact of these measures on the psychosocial and behavioral health outcomes of the workforce have focused frequently on healthcare employees. To expand the literature base, we deployed a one-year longitudinal survey among mostly non-healthcare employees assessing changes in select psychosocial outcomes, health behaviors, and COVID-19-related transmission prevention behaviors and perceptions., Methods: We deployed the CAPTURE baseline survey across eight companies from November 20, 2020-February 8, 2021. The baseline survey included questions on psychosocial outcomes, health behaviors, and COVID-19 transmission prevention behaviors, with several questions containing a retrospective component to cover the time period prior to the pandemic. Additional questions on vaccination status and social support were subsequently added, and the updated survey deployed to the same baseline participants at three, six, and 12 months after baseline survey deployment. We analyzed data descriptively and performed Friedman's and subsequent Wilcoxon-signed rank tests, as appropriate, to compare data within and between time points., Results: A total of 3607, 1788, 1545, and 1687 employees completed the baseline, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month CAPTURE surveys, respectively, with 816 employees completing all four time points. Employees reported higher stress, anxiety, fatigue, and feelings of being unsafe across all time points compared to pre-pandemic. Time spent sleeping increased initially but returned to pre-pandemic levels at follow-up. Lower rates of physical activity and higher rates of non-work screen time and alcohol consumption relative to pre-pandemic were also reported. Over 90% of employees perceived wearing a mask, physical distancing, and receiving the COVID-19 vaccine as 'moderately' or 'very important' in preventing the spread of COVID-19 across all time points., Conclusions: Relative to pre-pandemic, poorer psychosocial outcomes and worsened health behaviors were observed across all time points, with values worse at the baseline and 12-month time points when COVID-19 surges were highest. While COVID-19 prevention behaviors were consistently deemed to be important by employees, the psychosocial outcome and health behavior data suggest the potential for harmful long-term effects of the pandemic on the well-being of non-healthcare employees., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background Larger within-patient variability of lipid levels has been associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, measures of lipid variability require ≥3 measurements and are not currently used clinically. We investigated the feasibility of calculating lipid variability within a large electronic health record-based population cohort and assessed associations with incident CVD. Methods and Results We identified all individuals ≥40 years of age who resided in Olmsted County, MN, on January 1, 2006 (index date), without prior CVD, defined as myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, percutaneous coronary intervention, or CVD death. Patients with ≥3 measurements of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or triglycerides during the 5 years before the index date were retained. Lipid variability was calculated using variability independent of the mean. Patients were followed through December 31, 2020 for incident CVD. We identified 19 652 individuals (mean age 61 years; 55% female), who were CVD-free and had variability independent of the mean calculated for at least 1 lipid type. After adjustment, those with highest total cholesterol variability had a 20% increased risk of CVD (Q5 versus Q1 hazard ratio, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.06-1.37]). Results were similar for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Conclusions In a large electronic health record-based population cohort, high variability in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with an increased risk of CVD, independent of traditional risk factors, suggesting it may be a possible risk marker and target for intervention. Lipid variability can be calculated in the electronic health record environment, but more research is needed to determine its clinical utility.

Importance: Rural populations experience an increased burden of heart failure (HF) mortality compared with urban populations. Whether HF incidence is greater among rural individuals is less known. Additionally, the intersection between racial and rural health inequities is understudied., Objective: To determine whether rurality is associated with increased risk of HF, independent of cardiovascular (CV) disease and socioeconomic status (SES), and whether rurality-associated HF risk varies by race and sex., Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study analyzed data for Black and White participants of the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) without HF at enrollment who receive care via Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). The SCCS is a population-based cohort of low-income, underserved participants from 12 states across the southeastern United States. Participants were enrolled between 2002 and 2009 and followed up until December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to November 2022., Exposures: Rurality as defined by Rural-Urban Commuting Area codes at the census-tract level., Main Outcomes and Measures: Heart failure was defined using diagnosis codes via CMS linkage through 2016. Incidence of HF was calculated by person-years of follow-up and age-standardized. Sequentially adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models tested the association between rurality and incident HF., Results: Among 27 115 participants, the median (IQR) age was 54 years (47-65), 18 647 (68.8%) were Black, and 8468 (32.3%) were White; 5556 participants (20%) resided in rural areas. Over a median 13-year follow-up, age-adjusted HF incidence was 29.6 (95% CI, 28.9-30.5) per 1000 person-years for urban participants and 36.5 (95% CI, 34.9-38.3) per 1000 person-years for rural participants (P < .001). After adjustment for demographic information, CV risk factors, health behaviors, and SES, rural participants had a 19% greater risk of incident HF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.26) compared with their urban counterparts. The rurality-associated risk of HF varied across race and sex and was greatest among Black men (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.19-1.51), followed by White women (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.07-1.39) and Black women (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.28). Among White men, rurality was not associated with greater risk of incident HF (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.81-1.16)., Conclusions and Relevance: Among predominantly low-income individuals in the southeastern United States, rurality was associated with an increased risk of HF among women and Black men, which persisted after adjustment for CV risk factors and SES. This inequity points to a need for additional emphasis on primary prevention of HF among rural populations.

Background: The Framingham Heart Study Dementia Risk Score (FDRS) was developed in a general population of older persons. It is unknown how the FDRS variables predict Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementias (AD/ADRD) in heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. We aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of the FDRS variables in population-based cohorts of heart failure and atrial fibrillation and to determine whether the addition of other comorbidities and risk factors improves risk prediction for AD/ADRD., Methods: Residents aged ≥50 years from 7 southeastern Minnesota counties with a first diagnosis of heart failure or atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2017, were identified. Patients with AD/ADRD before or within 6 months after index atrial fibrillation or heart failure and patients who died within 6 months after index were excluded. For both cohorts, models were constructed to predict AD/ADRD after index including the variables in the FDRS. Additional comorbidities and risk factors were added to the models. For all models, c-statistics using 5-fold cross-validation were calculated., Results: Among 3052 patients with heart failure (mean age 75 years, 53% male), 626 developed AD/ADRD; among 4107 patients with atrial fibrillation (mean age 74 years, 57% male), 736 developed AD/ADRD. Among patients with heart failure, the FDRS variables predicted AD/ADRD with c-statistic = 0.69. Adding comorbidities and risk factors improved the c-statistic slightly to 0.70. The FDRS variables also performed well (c-statistic = 0.73) in patients with atrial fibrillation; adding comorbidities and risk factors slightly improved performance (c-statistic = 0.75)., Conclusions: The variables from the FDRS predict AD/ADRD well in both heart failure and atrial fibrillation populations. The addition of comorbidities and risk factors only modestly improved prediction, indicating that the FDRS variables are appropriate to predict AD/ADRD in patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Heart failure (HF) with an ejection fraction (EF) of 41%-49% is recognized as HF with a mildly reduced EF (HFmrEF). However, existing knowledge of the HFmrEF phenotype is based on HF clinical trial and registry cohorts that may be limited by multiple forms of bias., Methods and Results: In a community-based, retrospective cohort study, adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with validated (Framingham criteria) incident HF from 2007 to 2015 were categorized by echocardiographic EF at first HF diagnosis. Among 2035 adults with incident HF, 12.5% had HFmrEF, 29.9% had HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), and 57.6% had HF with preserved EF (HFpEF). Mean age and sex varied by EF group, with HFmrEF (75.6 years, 45.3% female), HFrEF (70.9 years, 36.5% female), and HFpEF (76.9 years, 59.7% female). Most comorbid conditions were more common in HFmrEF vs HFrEF, but similar in HFmrEF and HFpEF. After a mean follow-up of 4.6 ± 3.5 years, adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the risks of hospitalization and cardiovascular mortality did not differ by EF category. Of patients who began as HFmrEF, 26.9% declined to an EF of 40% or less and 44.8% improved to an EF of 50% or greater., Conclusions: In this community cohort of incident HF, 12.5% have HFmrEF. Clinical characteristics in HFmrEF resemble HFpEF more than HFrEF. Adjusted hospitalization and mortality risks did not vary by EF group. Patients with incident HFmrEF usually transitioned to a different EF category on follow-up., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Functional debility is associated with worse outcomes in the general heart failure population, but the prevalence of difficulty with activities of daily living and clinical significance once patients develop advanced heart failure requires further examination., Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota adults with advanced heart failure from 2007-2018. Difficulty with 9 activities of daily living was assessed by questionnaire. Predictors of difficulty were assessed by a proportional odds model. Associations of difficulty with activities of daily living with mortality and hospitalization were examined using Cox and Andersen-Gill models., Results: Among 765 patients with advanced heart failure, 565 (73.9%) reported difficulty with activities of daily living at diagnosis. Of those, 257 (45%) had moderate and 148 (26%) had severe difficulty. Independent predictors of difficulty included female sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-2.36; P = .001), older age (OR per 10-year increase 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.31; P = .005), dementia (OR 1.85; 95% CI, 1.06-3.24; P = .031), depression (OR 1.75; 95% CI, 1.28-2.40; P = .001), and morbid obesity (OR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.04-2.13; P = .031). Estimated 2-year mortality was 61.5%, 64.2%, and 67.6% in patients with no/minimal, moderate, and severe difficulty, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for death were 1.08 (0.90-1.28) and 1.17 (0.95-1.43) for moderate and severe difficulty, respectively, vs no/minimal difficulty (P = .33). There were no statistically significant associations of difficulty with activities of daily living and hospitalization risks., Conclusions: Most patients with advanced heart failure have difficulty completing activities of daily living and are at high risk of mortality regardless of impairment in activities of daily living., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A task force composed of American Heart Association (AHA) Research Committee members established processes to measure the performance of the AHA's research portfolio and evaluated key outcomes that are fundamental to the overall success of the program. This report reviews progress that the AHA research program has had in achieving its goals relevant to the research programs in the AHA's research portfolio from 2008 to 2017. Comprehensive performance metrics were identified to assess the impact of AHA funding on researchers' career progress and research outcomes. Metrics included bibliometric analysis (ie, tracking of publications and their impact) and career development measures (ie, subsequent grant funding, intellectual property, faculty appointment/promotion, or industry position). Publication rates ranged from ≈0.5 to 4 publications per year, with a strong correlation between number of publications per year and later career stage. The Field-Weighted Citation Index, a metric of bibliometric impact, was between 1.5 and 3.0 for all programs, indicating that AHA awardee publications had a higher citation impact compared with similar publications. To gain insight into the career progression of AHA awardees, a 2-year postaward survey was distributed. Of the Postdoctoral Fellowship recipient respondents, 72% obtained academic research positions, with the remaining working in industry or government research settings; 72% of those in academic positions obtained additional funding. Among respondents who were Beginning Grant-in-Aid and Scientist Development Grant awardees, 45% received academic promotions and 83% obtained additional funding. Measuring performance of the AHA's research portfolio is critical to ensure that its strategic goals are met and to show the AHA's commitment to high-quality, impactful research.

Background: Guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) dramatically improves outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Our goal was to examine GDMT use in community patients with newly diagnosed HFrEF., Methods and Results: We performed a population-based, retrospective cohort study of all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with newly diagnosed HFrEF (EF ≤ 40%) 2007-2017. We excluded patients with contraindications to medication initiation. We examined the use of beta-blockers, HF beta-blockers (metoprolol succinate, carvedilol, bisoprolol), angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNIS), and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) in the first year after HFrEF diagnosis. We used Cox models to evaluate the association of being seen in an HF clinic with the initiation of GDMT. From 2007 to 2017, 1160 patients were diagnosed with HFrEF (mean age 69.7 years, 65.6% men). Most eligible patients received beta-blockers (92.6%) and ACEis/ARBs/ARNIs (87.0%) in the first year. However, only 63.8% of patients were treated with an HF beta-blocker, and few received MRAs (17.6%). In models accounting for the role of an HF clinic in initiation of these medications, being seen in an HF clinic was independently associated with initiation of new GDMT across all medication classes, with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.54 (1.15-2.06) for any beta-blocker, 2.49 (1.95-3.20) for HF beta-blockers, 1.97 (1.46-2.65) for ACEis/ARBs/ARNIs, and 2.14 (1.49-3.08) for MRAs., Conclusions: In this population-based study, most patients with newly diagnosed HFrEF received beta-blockers and ACEis/ARBs/ARNIs. GDMT use was higher in patients seen in an HF clinic, suggesting the potential benefit of referral to an HF clinic for patients with newly diagnosed HFrEF., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after noncardiac surgery confers increased risks for ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). How outcomes for postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery compare with those for AF occurring outside of the operative setting is unknown., Objective: To compare the risks for ischemic stroke or TIA and other outcomes in patients with postoperative AF versus those with incident AF not associated with surgery., Design: Cohort study., Setting: Olmsted County, Minnesota., Participants: Patients with incident AF between 2000 and 2013., Measurements: Patients were categorized as having AF occurring within 30 days of a noncardiac surgery (postoperative AF) or having AF unrelated to surgery (nonoperative AF)., Results: Of 4231 patients with incident AF, 550 (13%) had postoperative AF as their first-ever documented AF presentation. Over a mean follow-up of 6.3 years, 486 patients had an ischemic stroke or TIA and 2462 had subsequent AF; a total of 2565 deaths occurred. The risk for stroke or TIA was similar between those with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF (absolute risk difference [ARD] at 5 years, 0.1% [95% CI, -2.9% to 3.1%]; hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [CI, 0.77 to 1.32]). A lower risk for subsequent AF was seen for patients with postoperative AF (ARD at 5 years, -13.4% [CI, -17.8% to -9.0%]; HR, 0.68 [CI, 0.60 to 0.77]). Finally, no difference was seen for cardiovascular death or all-cause death between patients with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF., Limitation: The population consisted predominantly of White patients; caution should be used when extrapolating the results to more racially diverse populations., Conclusion: Postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery is associated with similar risk for thromboembolism compared with nonoperative AF. Our findings have potentially important implications for the early postsurgical and subsequent management of postoperative AF., Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Aging.

Objective: Variability of Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, including racial difference, is not fully accounted for by the variability of traditional CVD risk factors. We used a multiple biomarker model as a framework to explore known racial differences in CVD burden., Design: We measured associations between accelerated aging (AccA) measured by a combination of biomarkers, and cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study (CARDIA). AccA was defined as the difference between biological age, calculated using biomarkers with the Klemera and Doubal method, and chronological age. Using logistic regression, we assessed overall and race-specific associations between AccA, CVD, and all-cause mortality., Results: Among our cohort of 2959 Black or White middle-aged adults, after adjustment, a one-year increase in AccA was associated with increased odds of CVD (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06), stroke (OR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.17), and all-cause mortality (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08). We did not find significant overall racial differences, but we did find race by sex differences where Black men differed markedly from White men in the strength of association with CVD (OR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.12)., Conclusions: We provide evidence that AccA is associated with future CVD.

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults comprising 14 established US prospective cohort studies. Starting as early as 1971, investigators in the C4R cohort studies have collected data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R links this pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotyping to information on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and acute and postacute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the United States. C4R ascertains SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey conducted via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations and high-quality event surveillance. Extensive prepandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these data will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including postacute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term health trajectories., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health 2022. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Addressing the pervasive gaps in knowledge and care delivery to reduce sex-based disparities and achieve equity is fundamental to the American Heart Association's commitment to advancing cardiovascular health for all by 2024. This presidential advisory serves as a call to action for the American Heart Association and other stakeholders around the globe to identify and remove barriers to health care access and quality for women. A concise and current summary of existing data across the areas of risk and prevention, access and delivery of equitable care, and awareness and education provides a framework to consider knowledge gaps and research needs critical toward achieving significant progress for the health and well-being of all women.

Background: Cognitive function is essential to effective self-management of heart failure (HF). Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease-related dementias (AD/ADRD) can coexist with HF, but its exact prevalence and impact on health care utilization and death are not well defined., Methods: Residents from 7 southeast Minnesota counties with a first-ever diagnosis code for HF between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2018 were identified. Clinically diagnosed AD/ADRD was ascertained using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse algorithm. Patients were followed through March 31, 2020. Cox and Andersen-Gill models were used to examine associations between AD/ADRD (before and after HF) and death and hospitalizations, respectively., Results: Among 6336 patients with HF (mean age [SD] 75 years [14], 48% female), 644 (10%) carried a diagnosis of AD/ADRD at index HF diagnosis. The 3-year cumulative incidence of AD/ADRD after HF diagnosis was 17%. During follow-up (mean [SD] 3.2 [1.9] years), 2618 deaths and 15,475 hospitalizations occurred. After adjustment, patients with AD/ADRD before HF had nearly a 2.7 times increased risk of death, but no increased risk of hospitalization compared to those without AD/ADRD. When AD/ADRD was diagnosed after the index HF date, patients experienced a 3.7 times increased risk of death and a 73% increased risk of hospitalization compared to those who remain free of AD/ADRD., Conclusions: In a large, community cohort of patients with incident HF, the burden of AD/ADRD is quite high as more than one-fourth of patients with HF received a diagnosis of AD/ADRD either before or after HF diagnosis. AD/ADRD markedly increases the risk of adverse outcomes in HF underscoring the need for future studies focused on holistic approaches to improve outcomes., (© 2022 The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Some patients with heart failure (HF) will go on to develop advanced HF, characterized by severe HF symptoms despite attempts to optimize medical therapy. The goals of this study were to examine the risk of developing advanced HF in patients with newly diagnosed HF, identify risk factors for developing advanced HF, and evaluate the impact of advanced HF on outcomes., Methods: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with a new clinical diagnosis of HF between 2007 and 2017. Risk factors for the development of advanced HF (2018 European Society of Cardiology criteria) were examined using cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression models. The associations of development of advanced HF with risks of hospitalization and mortality were examined using the Andersen-Gill and Cox models, respectively., Results: There were 4597 residents with incident HF from 2007 to 2017. The cumulative incidence of advanced HF was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.5%-12.5%) at 6 years after incident HF diagnosis overall and was 14.4% (95% CI, 12.3%-16.9%), 11.4% (95% CI, 8.9%-14.6%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 10.3%-13.2%) in patients with incident HF with reduced, mildly reduced, and preserved ejection fraction, respectively. Key demographics, comorbidities, and echocardiographic characteristics were independently associated with the development of advanced HF. Development of advanced HF was associated with increased risks of all-cause hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.0 [95% CI, 2.7-3.4]; P <0.001), HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 10.2 [95% CI, 8.7-12.1]), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 5.0 [95% CI, 4.5-5.6]; P <0.001), and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 7.8 [95% CI, 6.7-9.1])., Conclusions: In this population-based study, development of advanced HF was common and was associated with markedly increased morbidity and mortality.

Cardiovascular disease surveillance involves quantifying the evolving population-level burden of cardiovascular outcomes and risk factors as a data-driven initial step followed by the implementation of interventional strategies designed to alleviate this burden in the target population. Despite widespread acknowledgement of its potential value, a national surveillance system dedicated specifically to cardiovascular disease does not currently exist in the United States. Routinely collected health care data such as from electronic health records (EHRs) are a possible means of achieving national surveillance. Accordingly, this article elaborates on some key strengths and limitations of using EHR data for establishing a national cardiovascular disease surveillance system. Key strengths discussed include the: (1) ubiquity of EHRs and consequent ability to create a more "national" surveillance system, (2) existence of a common data infrastructure underlying the health care enterprise with respect to data domains and the nomenclature by which these data are expressed, (3) longitudinal length and detail that define EHR data when individuals repeatedly patronize a health care organization, and (4) breadth of outcomes capable of being surveilled with EHRs. Key limitations discussed include the: (1) incomplete ascertainment of health information related to health care-seeking behavior and the disconnect of health care data generated at separate health care organizations, (2) suspect data quality resulting from the default information-gathering processes within the clinical enterprise, (3) questionable ability to surveil patients through EHRs in the absence of documented interactions, and (4) the challenge in interpreting temporal trends in health metrics, which can be obscured by changing clinical and administrative processes.

Background Electronic medical records are increasingly used to identify disease cohorts; however, computable phenotypes using electronic medical record data are often unable to distinguish between prevalent and incident cases. Methods and Results We identified all Olmsted County, Minnesota residents aged ≥18 with a first-ever International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnostic code for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter from 2000 to 2014 (N=6177), and a random sample with an International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code from 2016 to 2018 (N=200). Trained nurse abstractors reviewed all medical records to validate the events and ascertain the date of onset (incidence date). Various algorithms based on number and types of codes (inpatient/outpatient), medications, and procedures were evaluated. Positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of the algorithms were calculated. The lowest PPV was observed for 1 code (64.4%), and the highest PPV was observed for 2 codes (any type) >7 days apart but within 1 year (71.6%). Requiring either 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient codes separated by >7 days but within 1 year had the best balance between PPV (69.9%) and sensitivity (95.5%). PPVs were slightly higher using ICD-10 codes. Requiring an anticoagulant or antiarrhythmic prescription or electrical cardioversion in addition to diagnostic code(s) modestly improved the PPVs at the expense of large reductions in sensitivity. Conclusions We developed simple, exportable, computable phenotypes for atrial fibrillation using structured electronic medical record data. However, use of diagnostic codes to identify incident atrial fibrillation is prone to some misclassification. Further study is warranted to determine whether more complex phenotypes, including unstructured data sources or using machine learning techniques, may improve the accuracy of identifying incident atrial fibrillation.

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death in women. Given accumulating evidence on sex- and gender-based differences in cardiovascular disease development and outcomes, the need for more effective approaches to screening for risk factors and phenotypes in women is ever urgent. Public health surveillance and health care delivery systems now continuously generate massive amounts of data that could be leveraged to enable both screening of cardiovascular risk and implementation of tailored preventive interventions across a woman's life span. However, health care providers, clinical guidelines committees, and health policy experts are not yet sufficiently equipped to optimize the collection of data on women, use or interpret these data, or develop approaches to targeting interventions. Therefore, we provide a broad overview of the key opportunities for cardiovascular screening in women while highlighting the potential applications of artificial intelligence along with digital technologies and tools.