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ObjectivesTo evaluate the diagnostic performance of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) thresholds for acute heart failure and to develop and validate a decision support tool that combines NT-proBNP concentrations with clinical characteristics.DesignIndividual patient level data meta-analysis and modelling study.SettingFourteen studies from 13 countries, including randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies.ParticipantsIndividual patient level data for 10 369 patients with suspected acute heart failure were pooled for the meta-analysis to evaluate NT-proBNP thresholds. A decision support tool (Collaboration for the Diagnosis and Evaluation of Heart Failure (CoDE-HF)) that combines NT-proBNP with clinical variables to report the probability of acute heart failure for an individual patient was developed and validated.Main outcome measureAdjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure.ResultsOverall, 43.9% (4549/10 369) of patients had an adjudicated diagnosis of acute heart failure (73.3% (2286/3119) and 29.0% (1802/6208) in those with and without previous heart failure, respectively). The negative predictive value of the guideline recommended rule-out threshold of 300 pg/mL was 94.6% (95% confidence interval 91.9% to 96.4%); despite use of age specific rule-in thresholds, the positive predictive value varied at 61.0% (55.3% to 66.4%), 73.5% (62.3% to 82.3%), and 80.2% (70.9% to 87.1%), in patients aged 75 years, respectively. Performance varied in most subgroups, particularly patients with obesity, renal impairment, or previous heart failure. CoDE-HF was well calibrated, with excellent discrimination in patients with and without previous heart failure (area under the receiver operator curve 0.846 (0.830 to 0.862) and 0.925 (0.919 to 0.932) and Brier scores of 0.130 and 0.099, respectively). In patients without previous heart failure, the diagnostic performance was consistent across all subgroups, with 40.3% (2502/6208) identified at low probability (negative predictive value of 98.6%, 97.8% to 99.1%) and 28.0% (1737/6208) at high probability (positive predictive value of 75.0%, 65.7% to 82.5%) of having acute heart failure.ConclusionsIn an international, collaborative evaluation of the diagnostic performance of NT-proBNP, guideline recommended thresholds to diagnose acute heart failure varied substantially in important patient subgroups. The CoDE-HF decision support tool incorporating NT-proBNP as a continuous measure and other clinical variables provides a more consistent, accurate, and individualised approach.Study registrationPROSPERO CRD42019159407.

Aims We evaluated the impact of echocardiographic epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) on cardiovascular haemodynamics, metabolic profile and prognosis in heart failure (HF) using combined cardiopulmonary-echocardiography exercise stress. Methods and results We analysed EAT thickness of HF patients with reduced (HFrEF, n = 205) and preserved (HFpEF, n = 188) ejection fraction, including 44 controls. HFpEF patients displayed the highest EAT, while HFrEF patients had lower values than controls. EAT showed an inverse correlation with natriuretic peptides, troponin T and C-reactive protein in HFrEF, while having a direct association with troponin T and C-reactive protein in HFpEF. EAT was independently associated with peak oxygen consumption (VO2 ) and peripheral extraction (AVO2 diff), regardless of body mass index. EAT was inversely correlated with peak VO2 and AVO2 diff in HFpEF, while a direct association was observed in HFrEF, where lower EAT values were associated with worse left ventricular systolic dysfunction. In HFpEF, increased EAT was related to right ventriculo-arterial (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion/systolic pulmonary artery pressure) uncoupling. After 21 months of follow-up, 146 HF hospitalizations and 34 cardiovascular deaths were recorded in the HF population. Cox multivariable analysis supported an independent differential role of EAT in HF cohorts (interaction P = 0.01): higher risk of adverse events for increasing EAT in HFpEF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.37] and for decreasing EAT in HFrEF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.54-0.91). Conclusion In HFpEF, EAT accumulation is associated with worse haemodynamic and metabolic profile, also affecting survival. Conversely, lower EAT values imply higher left ventricular dysfunction, global functional impairment and adverse prognosis in HFrEF.