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Let F be the quotient of an analytic function with a product of linear functions. Working in the framework of analytic combinatorics in several variables, we compute asymptotic formulae for the Taylor coefficients of F using multivariate residues and saddle-point approximations. Because the singular set of F is the union of hyperplanes, we are able to make explicit the topological decompositions which arise in the multivariate singularity analysis. In addition to effective and explicit asymptotic results, we provide the first results on transitions between different asymptotic regimes, and provide the first software package to verify and compute asymptotics in non-smooth cases of analytic combinatorics in several variables. It is also our hope that this paper will serve as an entry to the more advanced corners of analytic combinatorics in several variables for combinatorialists.

We consider a spatial (line) model for invasion of a population by a single mutant with a stochastically selectively neutral fitness landscape, independent from the fitness landscape for non-mutants. This model is similar to those considered in Farhang-Sardroodi et al. [PLOS Comput. Biol., 13(11), 2017; J. R. Soc. Interface, 16(157), 2019]. We show that the probability of mutant fixation in a population of size $N$, starting from a single mutant, is greater than $1/N$, which would be the case if there were no variation in fitness whatsoever. In the small variation regime, we recover precise asymptotics for the success probability of the mutant. This demonstrates that the introduction of randomness provides an advantage to minority mutations in this model, and shows that the advantage increases with the system size. We further demonstrate that the mutants have an advantage in this setting only because they are better at exploiting unusually favorable environments when they arise, and not because they are any better at exploiting pockets of favorability in an environment that is selectively neutral overall., Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures

On complex algebraic varieties, height functions arising in combinatorial applications fail to be proper. This complicates the description and computation via Morse theory of key topological invariants. Here we establish checkable conditions under which the behavior at infinity may be ignored, and the usual theorems of classical and stratified Morse theory may be applied. This allows for simplified arguments in the field of analytic combinatorics in several variables, and forms the basis for new methods applying to problems beyond the reach of previous techniques., Comment: Updated and simplified presentation and statements of main results

We explain a discontinuous drop in the exponential growth rate for certain multivariate generating functions at a critical parameter value, in even dimensions d at least 4. This result depends on computations in the homology of the algebraic variety where the generating function has a pole. These computations are similar to, and inspired by, a thread of research in applications of complex algebraic geometry to hyperbolic PDEs, going back to Leray, Petrowski, Atiyah, Bott and Garding. As a consequence, we give a topological explanation for certain asymptotic phenomenon appearing in the combinatorics and number theory literature. Furthermore, we show how to combine topological methods with symbolic algebraic computation to determine explicitly the dominant asymptotics for such multivariate generating functions, giving a significant new tool to attack the so-called connection problem for asymptotics of P-recursive sequences. This in turn enables the rigorous determination of integer coefficients in the Morse-Smale complex, which are difficult to determine using direct geometric methods.

Continuous time branching models are used to create random fractals in a Euclidean space, whose Hausdorff dimension is controlled by an input parameter. Finite realizations are applied in modelling the set of sites visited in models of human and animal mobility., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures

We consider the number of partitions of $n$ whose Young diagrams fit inside an $m \times \ell$ rectangle; equivalently, we study the coefficients of the $q$-binomial coefficient $\binom{m+\ell}{m}_q$. We obtain sharp asymptotics throughout the regime $\ell = \Theta (m)$ and $n = \Theta (m^2)$. Previously, sharp asymptotics were derived by Tak\'acs only in the regime where $|n - \ell m /2| = O(\sqrt{\ell m (\ell + m)})$ using a local central limit theorem. Our approach is to solve a related large deviation problem: we describe the tilted measure that produces configurations whose bounding rectangle has the given aspect ratio and is filled to the given proportion. Our results are sufficiently sharp to yield the first asymptotic estimates on the consecutive differences of these numbers when $n$ is increased by one and $m, \ell$ remain the same, hence significantly refining Sylvester's unimodality theorem., Comment: Updated with additional references to existing literature, slightly different introductory exposition, and increased focus on connection to Kronecker coefficients

We explore the survival function for percolation on Galton-Watson trees. Letting $g(T,p)$ represent the probability a tree $T$ survives Bernoulli percolation with parameter $p$, we establish several results about the behavior of the random function $g(\mathbf{T} , \cdot)$, where $\mathbf{T}$ is drawn from the Galton-Watson distribution. These include almost sure smoothness in the supercritical region; an expression for the $k\text{th}$-order Taylor expansion of $g(\mathbf{T} , \cdot)$ at criticality in terms of limits of martingales defined from $\mathbf{T}$ (this requires a moment condition depending on $k$); and a proof that the $k\text{th}$ order derivative extends continuously to the critical value. Each of these results is shown to hold for almost every Galton-Watson tree., Comment: 38 pages

We consider asymptotics of power series coefficients of rational functions of the form $1/Q$ where $Q$ is a symmetric multilinear polynomial. We review a number of such cases from the literature, chiefly concerned either with positivity of coefficients or diagonal asymptotics. We then analyze coefficient asymptotics using ACSV (Analytic Combinatorics in Several Variables) methods. While ACSV sometimes requires considerable overhead and geometric computation, in the case of symmetric multilinear rational functions there are some reductions that streamline the analysis. Our results include diagonal asymptotics across entire classes of functions, for example the general 3-variable case and the Gillis-Reznick-Zeilberger (GRZ) case, where the denominator in terms of elementary symmetric functions is $1 - e_1 + c e_d$ in any number $d$ of variables. The ACSV analysis also explains a discontinuous drop in exponential growth rate for the GRZ class at the parameter value $c = (d-1)^{d-1}$, previously observed for $d=4$ only by separately computing diagonal recurrences for critical and noncritical values of $c$., Comment: To appear in LIPIcs Proceedings of Analysis of Algorithms 2018

The insertion-deletion channel takes as input a bit string ${\bf x}\in\{0,1\}^{n}$, and outputs a string where bits have been deleted and inserted independently at random. The trace reconstruction problem is to recover $\bf x$ from many independent outputs (called "traces") of the insertion-deletion channel applied to $\bf x$. We show that if $\bf x$ is chosen uniformly at random, then $\exp(O(\log^{1/3} n))$ traces suffice to reconstruct $\bf x$ with high probability. For the deletion channel with deletion probability $q < 1/2$ the earlier upper bound was $\exp(O(\log^{1/2} n))$. The case of $q\geq 1/2$ or the case where insertions are allowed has not been previously analyzed, and therefore the earlier upper bound was as for worst-case strings, i.e., $\exp(O( n^{1/3}))$. We also show that our reconstruction algorithm runs in $n^{1+o(1)}$ time. A key ingredient in our proof is a delicate two-step alignment procedure where we estimate the location in each trace corresponding to a given bit of $\bf x$. The alignment is done by viewing the strings as random walks and comparing the increments in the walk associated with the input string and the trace, respectively., Comment: Analysis of running time added and proof simplified. Alex Zhai added as author. 37 pages, 7 figures

We consider invasion percolation on Galton-Watson trees. On almost every Galton-Watson tree, the invasion cluster almost surely contains only one infinite path. This means that for almost every Galton-Watson tree, invasion percolation induces a probability measure on infinite paths from the root. We show that under certain conditions of the progeny distribution, this measure is absolutely continuous with respect to the limit uniform measure. This confirms that invasion percolation, an efficient self-tuning algorithm, may be used to sample approximately from the limit uniform distribution. Additionally, we analyze the forward maximal weights along the backbone of the invasion cluster and prove a limit law for the process., Comment: 35 pages, 1 figure

We generalize the results of \cite{SPU, SJPU} by showing how the Gaussian aggregator may be computed in a setting where parameter estimation is not required. We proceed to provide an explicit formula for a "one-shot" aggregation problem with two forecasters., Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures in Statistics and Probability Letters (2016)

Let $(X_1 , \ldots , X_d)$ be random variables taking nonnegative integer values and let $f(z_1, \ldots , z_d)$ be the probability generating function. Suppose that $f$ is real stable; equivalently, suppose that the polarization of this probability distribution is strong Rayleigh. In specific examples, such as occupation counts of disjoint sets by a determinantal point process, it is known~\cite{soshnikov02} that the joint distribution must approach a multivariate Gaussian distribution. We show that this conclusion follows already from stability of $f$.

The longest increasing subsequence of a random walk with mean zero and finite variance is known to be $n^{1/2 + o(1)}$. We show that this is not universal for symmetric random walks. In particular, the symmetric Ultra-fat tailed random walk has a longest increasing subsequence that is asymptotically at least $n^{0.690}$ and at most $n^{0.815}$. An exponent strictly greater than $1/2$ is also shown for the symmetric stable-$\alpha$ distribution when $\alpha$ is sufficiently small.

We study a coarsening process of one-dimensional cell complexes. We show that if cell boundaries move with velocities proportional to the difference in size of neighboring cells, then the average cell size grows at a prescribed exponential rate and the Poisson distribution is precisely invariant for the distribution of the whole process, rescaled in space by its average growth rate. We present numerical evidence toward the following universality conjecture: starting from any finite mean stationary renewal process, the system when rescaled by $e^{-2t}$ converges to a Poisson point process. For a limited case, this makes precise what has been observed previously in experiments and simulations, and lays the foundation for a theory of universal asymptotic states of dynamical cell complexes.

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically, randomness in scientific estimation has been generally assumed to arise from unmeasured factors which are viewed as measurement noise. However, when combining subjective estimates, heterogeneity stemming from differences in the participants' information is often more important than measurement noise. This paper formalizes information diversity as an alternative source of such heterogeneity and introduces a novel modeling framework that is particularly well-suited for prediction polls. A practical specification of this framework is proposed and applied to the task of aggregating probability and point estimates from two real-world prediction polls. In both cases our model outperforms standard measurement-error-based aggregators, hence providing evidence in favor of information diversity being the more important source of heterogeneity.

We consider the problem of distributed corruption detection in networks. In this model, each vertex of a directed graph is either truthful or corrupt. Each vertex reports the type (truthful or corrupt) of each of its outneighbors. If it is truthful, it reports the truth, whereas if it is corrupt, it reports adversarially. This model, first considered by Preparata, Metze, and Chien in 1967, motivated by the desire to identify the faulty components of a digital system by having the other components checking them, became known as the PMC model. The main known results for this model characterize networks in which \emph{all} corrupt (that is, faulty) vertices can be identified, when there is a known upper bound on their number. We are interested in networks in which the identity of a \emph{large fraction} of the vertices can be identified. It is known that in the PMC model, in order to identify all corrupt vertices when their number is $t$, all indegrees have to be at least $t$. In contrast, we show that in $d$ regular-graphs with strong expansion properties, a $1-O(1/d)$ fraction of the corrupt vertices, and a $1-O(1/d)$ fraction of the truthful vertices can be identified, whenever there is a majority of truthful vertices. We also observe that if the graph is very far from being a good expander, namely, if the deletion of a small set of vertices splits the graph into small components, then no corruption detection is possible even if most of the vertices are truthful. Finally, we discuss the algorithmic aspects and the computational hardness of the problem.

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is often more important than measurement noise. This paper presents a novel framework that uses partially overlapping information sources. A specific model is proposed within that framework and applied to the task of aggregating the probabilities given by a group of forecasters who predict whether an event will occur or not. Our model describes the distribution of information across forecasters in terms of easily interpretable parameters and shows how the optimal amount of extremizing of the average probability forecast (shifting it closer to its nearest extreme) varies as a function of the forecasters' information overlap. Our model thus gives a more principled understanding of the historically ad hoc practice of extremizing average forecasts., Comment: This paper has been withdrawn because it was meant to be a revision to arXiv:1406.2148, not an independent submission. This was discovered on 27 May, 2015, when preparing a replacement version to arXiv:1406.2148. This replacement will supersede both that version and the one withdrawn here

We prove a conjecture dating back to a 1978 paper of D.R.\ Musser~\cite{musserirred}, namely that four random permutations in the symmetric group $\mathcal{S}_n$ generate a transitive subgroup with probability $p_n > \epsilon$ for some $\epsilon > 0$ independent of $n$, even when an adversary is allowed to conjugate each of the four by a possibly different element of $\S_n$ (in other words, the cycle types already guarantee generation of $\mathcal{S}_n$). This is closely related to the following random set model. A random set $M \subseteq \mathbb{Z}^+$ is generated by including each $n \geq 1$ independently with probability $1/n$. The sumset $\text{sumset}(M)$ is formed. Then at most four independent copies of $\text{sumset}(M)$ are needed before their mutual intersection is no longer infinite., Comment: 19pages, 1 figure