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Bioactive ingredients are part of the food chain and are responsible for numerous health benefits. Subcritical low temperature extraction has been employed to acquire bioactive ingredients because of its excellent properties, such as energy conservation, low temperature, elimination of residual solvent, and high extraction yield and quality. This review aims to provide a clear picture of the basics of subcritical-temperature extraction, its bioactive ingredient extraction efficiency, and possible applications in the agro-food industry. This review suggested that the extraction temperature, time, co-solvents, solid-fluid ratio, and pressure impacted the extraction efficiency of bioactive ingredients from foods and food by-products. Subcritical solvents are appropriate for extracting low polar ingredients, while the inclusion of co-solvents could extract medium and high polar substances. Bioactive ingredients from foods and food by-products can be used as antioxidants, colorants, and nutritional supplements. Additionally, this technology could remove pesticide residues in tea, concentrate edible proteins, and reduce cigarette tar. A new trend toward using subcritical low temperature extraction in extracting bioactive ingredients will acquire momentum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar 2D materials hold the emerging functionalities such as ferro‐, piezo‐, and pyro‐electric properties. On account of infrared‐active low bandgap and polar nature at reduced dimensionality, they served as an ideal choice of pyroelectric material. It can cover up a diverse range of applications, such as waste thermal energy harvesting, IR imaging, photodetector, temperature sensors, and several catalytic processes due to the abundance of dynamic thermal fluxes. Recently, 2D pyroelectric materials have manifested a substantial role in thermal energy harvesting. Consequently, it is realized that there are plenty of scopes available to diversify its applicability. Thus, the challenges are spotlighted in this perspective to envision the desired 2D pyroelectric materials to achieve the effective thermal energy harvesting, sensing, and catalytic efficacy. Particularly, the emphasis is given to elucidate the role of spontaneous polarization in 2D materials to ascertain the giant pyroelectricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents "K0.5Na0.5NbO3-based" Pb-free smart material 0.80(K0.5Na0.5NbO3)–0.20(Ba0.9Sr0.1TiO3) (KBST20) as exhibiting zero thermal expansion (ZTE) at low temperatures (T ≤ 100 K) with long-range cubic symmetry stable over a wide temperature range (9 K ≤ T ≤ 500 K). The linear coefficient of the thermal expansion (αl) obtained from temperature-dependent neutron diffraction data is in the range of 0.255–5.75 × 10−6 K–1 (9–500 K), which is rarely observed for Pb-free materials possessing long-range cubic symmetry. The temperature-dependent dielectric data of KBST20 exhibits a strong relaxational behavior with high frequency dispersion (Δ T ≈ 27 K), suggesting the presence of polar phased regions known as polar nano regions. The ZTE has been attributed to enhanced correlations among PNRs exhibiting ferroelectrostriction. Furthermore, temperature-dependent Raman scattering data reveal polar monoclinic distortion at short ranges rather than cubic symmetry at long ranges. In addition, the intensity of Raman modes increases with the decrease in temperature, suggesting enhancement of the polar phase at low temperatures, which consequently leads to zero thermal expansion in KBST20. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore the effect of acid rain corrosion on the cohesion performance of asphalt and its mechanism, graphene oxide (GO) was used to modify epoxy asphalt and 70# base asphalt, TAFPACK Super (TPS) high viscosity asphalt and epoxy asphalt were used as the control group, the periodic dry–wet cycle immersion test was used to simulate the acid rain environment to study the effect of acid rain on the physical properties, composition, cohesion and adhesion between different asphalt binders and aggregates. Furthermore, combined with aging test, the aging resistance of each asphalt after acid corrosion was investigated. The results show that acid rain corrosion can significantly decrease the adhesion between asphalt and aggregates and the cohesion of asphalt itself, resulting in serious moisture damage of asphalt. GO modified epoxy asphalt has better acid rain corrosion resistance than other asphalt. GO improves the cross-linking density between asphalt molecules. The polar groups and low shrinkage thermosetting resin of GO modified epoxy asphalt make it has excellent adhesion and high cohesion, which can effectively resist moisture erosion, peeling and temperature stress cracking, thus effectively resist the corrosion of acid rain. Aging deteriorates the performance of asphalt binder and decreases its acid corrosion resistance. GO modified epoxy asphalt can effectively inhibit the aging of asphalt binder, thus resisting the deterioration caused by aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are dramatic events in the polar winter stratosphere that are accompanied by atmospheric parameter anomalies in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Microwave Limb Sounder and Global Navigation Satellite System Occultation Sounder observations on board the Chinese FengYun 3 satellites indicate a rapid increase of over 50 % in the mesospheric density at high latitudes around the onset date during the 2021 major SSW event. The amplification of the zonal mean density around the onset is proportional to the latitude increase with a maximum increment of 83.3 % at 59 km above 80° N, which is more than 3 times larger than the climatological standard deviation (23.1 %). The horizontal density distributions are influenced by the changing polar vortex fields. A simulation using a specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model reproduces the global circulation and presents a severe change in the planetary wave forcing and residual meridional circulation mass flux followed by a change in the density tendency. These results demonstrate that the observed enhanced density is primarily attributed to the altered planetary waves and residual circulation during the SSW event. The observations and simulations also indicate that the density anomalies could extend to middle latitudes. Obvious density disturbances in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere were observed by the lidar deployed in Beijing (40.3° N, 116.2° E). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and the Semiannual Oscillation have been identified to be the leading modes of variability in the tropical middle atmosphere. With reanalysis data and independent rocket soundings from a low latitude site, we report the existence of yet another variability in the tropical lower mesosphere which is primarily evident as easterly bursts in zonal winds during the months of May‐July. It occurs with a variable interval of 2–5 yrs in the late 20th century and 7–9 yrs in the early 21st century. These Quasi‐Periodic Easterly Bursts are found to have remote influences on the Antarctic polar vortex as well as residual circulation in the lower mesosphere. We identify a potential causative mechanism for the easterly bursts that involve enhanced cross equatorial advection of momentum as well as gravity wave drag. A close association with Quasi Biennial Oscillation winds is observed, however, cause of the observed periodicity remains elusive. Plain Language Summary: Circulation in the tropical middle atmosphere is distinctively different from that of the higher latitudes in that there exists long‐period oscillations chiefly driven by a broad spectrum of atmospheric waves. These oscillations that dominate the wind variability here, include the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Semiannual Oscillation (SAO) with approximate periods of 28 and 6 months, respectively. With the help of reanalysis data sets and independent rocket soundings from a low latitude site, we identify the existence of a hitherto unrecognized variability in the tropical middle atmosphere. The newly identified variability seems to have association with the Southern Hemispheric polar vortex as well as the transport circulation in the lower mesosphere. Further, an attempt is made to identify the causative mechanism using the framework of interaction of large‐scale planetary waves with the mean flow. Key Points: A new pattern of variability in the tropical middle atmosphere is identifiedThe observed variability is associated with stronger polar vortex and an enhanced residual circulation in the Southern Hemispheric mesosphereA close connection with the presence of an extended layer of westerlies in the Quasi Biennial Oscillation regime is observed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While weakening of the boreal polar vortex may be caused by autumnal Arctic sea ice loss, less is known about the interannual influence of Antarctic sea ice on stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Identifying any relationship over the short satellite period is difficult due to sampling variability and anthropogenic modification of the austral polar vortex. To circumvent these issues, we use large ensembles of fixed boundary condition simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to assess if and how interannual fluctuations in winter Antarctic sea ice influence spring planetary‐scale waves and the coupled stratosphere‐troposphere circulation. Low Antarctic sea ice conditions are found to modulate tropospheric stationary waves to project constructively onto the climatological stationary wave, enhancing upward planetary wave propagation into the austral polar stratosphere. In WACCM, the resulting vortex weakening coincides with development of negative Southern Annular Mode conditions during September–November. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic sea ice concentrations vary from year to year, and the presence or lack of sea ice can change how the atmosphere above it responds. Here we use two specially designed experiments to understand how year to year variations in Antarctic sea ice affect the atmosphere from the surface to the stratosphere. We find that the winds in the stratosphere are slower than normal in years with less than normal sea ice. These changes in winds high up in the atmosphere may invoke changes in winds closer to the surface and in precipitation, but this result is model‐dependent. Key Points: Anomalously low Antarctic sea ice in austral winter amplifies upward planetary wave propagation in the spring, weakening the polar vortexTwo climate models show the polar vortex weakening though it's only robust in one. This model has a negative Southern Annular Mode responseLarge polar vortex variability in early spring can mask the tropospheric circulation response to sea ice anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on multi‐model large‐ensemble experiments provided by Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), we investigate the influence of the projected sea ice loss in Barents‐Kara Seas (BKS) and Sea of Okhotsk (SOK) on the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Results show that future BKS sea ice reduction leads to a weakened SPV during November‐February by enhancing the upward‐propagating planetary wave 1, which is more pronounced during Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) easterly than westerly phase. Through weakening the upward‐propagating planetary wave 2, future SOK sea ice reduction is favorable for a strengthened SPV during January‐April. Inter‐model spread in the magnitudes of SPV responses to BKS sea ice reduction can be largely explained by the divergent planetary wave responses, but less so for SOK sea ice reduction. Results from a linearized baroclinic model further validate the importance of the planetary‐scale wave responses in explaining the differing SPV responses to sea‐ice loss over the two regions. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice reduction influences the Northern Hemispheric weather and climate through modulating Arctic stratospheric polar vortex, which is a band of strong westerly encircling the pole during winter at ∼15–40 km above the Earth's surface. However, sea ice reduction over different regions could lead to different effects on the polar vortex. Here, we compare the effects of future sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas, in the far‐north Atlantic Ocean, and the Sea of Okhotsk, in the northwest Pacific Ocean. We use carefully designed numerical simulations to estimate the effects of sea ice reduction, separately in the above‐mentioned two regions, on the polar vortex. Sea ice reduction over the Barents‐Kara Seas weakens the polar vortex, whereas sea ice reduction over Sea of Okhotsk strengthens the polar vortex. These contrasting effects are explained by opposing changes in wave activity entering the stratosphere from below. Barents‐Kara sea ice reduction leads to the strengthened upward propagating planetary waves, which break in the stratosphere and slow the polar vortex. Conversely, Okhotsk sea ice loss reduces upward waves and strengthens the polar vortex. Key Points: Barents‐Kara and Sea of Okhotsk sea ice loss weakens and strengthens polar vortex, respectively, with attendant changes in SSW frequencyPlanetary wave responses to Barents‐Kara and Okhotsk sea ice loss interfere constructively and destructively with mean flow, respectivelyPolar vortex weakening induced by Barents‐Kara sea ice loss is greater during easterly than westerly Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term ground-based lidar observations are important in estimating the contribution of different sources (mostly volcanic eruptions and wildfires) to aerosol loading of the atmosphere and in developing and improving various climate models. In this paper, we carefully analyse aerosol scattering ratio profiles and aerosol layers, observed with 532-nm lidar measurements at the Siberian Lidar Station in Tomsk (56.48°N, 85.05°E) over the period 2018–2022, and identify the layers' potential sources. To compare aerosol loading over Tomsk for the last five years (2018–2022) with that for previous years, we also present and discuss time series of integrated aerosol backscatter coefficient (IABC) for three altitude ranges. The first range (15–30 km) reveals the pure stratospheric aerosol loading provided by volcanic eruptions, the second range (11–15 km) is responsible mainly for aftereffects of wildfire smoke plumes, and the third one (11–30 km) demonstrates aerosol contribution from both sources. In particular, we found for the period 2001–2022 that the annual average IABC reached its maximal values of 2.91 × 10−4 sr−1 (15–30 km) and 8.21 × 10−4 sr−1 (11–30 km) in 2022 due to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. The period 2020–2022 exhibited a significant increase in the relative aerosol content at altitudes of 11–15 km in the total aerosol loading at 11–30 km over Tomsk from 54.4% in 2020 to 64.8% in 2022, which indicates a shift of the main part of aerosol loading to altitudes of 11–15 km due to the increased wildfire activity in North America and north-eastern Asia. The Arctic polar vortex is also revealed to distort the real aerosol vertical distribution over Tomsk by replacing it with the aerosol distribution inside the vortex on measurement days when the vortex is over the lidar site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development. Significance Statement: Global warming is anticipated to impact cyclone systems worldwide. Polar lows (PLs), intense mesocyclones in polar regions with potential socioeconomic and human life implications, pose uncertainties regarding intensity changes in a warming climate. In this study, we aimed to better understand how PLs over the Barents Sea will respond to the environmental changes in future climate conditions [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0] by the end of the twenty-first century. Our results find that the intensity of PLs is expected to decrease in the future while there is an expected increase in precipitation associated with PLs in the warming climate. These findings aim to contribute valuable insights for disaster management strategies in the face of evolving climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nanomedicine is a discipline of medicine that applies all aspects of nanotechnology strategies and concepts for treatment and screening possibilities. Synthetic polymer nanostructures are among the many nanomedicine formulations frequently studied for their potential as vectors. Bioimaging is a valuable diagnostic tool, thus, there is always a demand for new excipients/nanocarriers. In this study, hydrophobic hyperbranched poly(lauryl methacrylate) (PLMA) homopolymers comprised of highly hydrophobic LMA moieties with –COOH polar end groups were synthesized by employing reversible addition-fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization. Ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) was utilized as the branching agent. End groups are incorporated through the RAFT agent utilized. The resulting amphiphilic hyperbranched polymer was molecularly characterized by size exclusion chromatography (SEC), Fourier transformation infrared spectroscopy (FT–IR), and 1H–NMR spectroscopy. Pyrene, curcumin, and IR-1048 dye were hydrophobic payload molecules successfully encapsulated to show how adaptable these homopolymer nanoparticles (prepared by nanoprecipitation in water) are as dye nanocarriers. This study demonstrates a simple way of producing excipients by generating polymeric nanoparticles from an amphiphilic, hyperbranched, hydrophobic homopolymer, with a low fraction of polar end groups, for bioimaging purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The migrating diurnal tide (DW1) is derived by fitting Hough Mode Extensions to the TIMED/TIDI near‐global wind measurements within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere between 85 and 100 km from 2004 to 2014. The tidal amplitude peaks around the equinoxes with a large interannual variability of up to 50%. The correlation coefficients between the tidal amplitude variability and the solar cycle as represented by F10.7, stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are calculated every 10 days revealing seasonal dependencies. The interannual variability is positively correlated with QBO from spring to fall, maximizing around the equinoxes; anti‐correlated to the solar cycle in early winter; and anti‐correlated to ENSO in early winter and slightly in March. Multivariate linear regressions are performed to quantitatively analyze the linear relationships between the DW1 amplitude and those factors. The fittings perform best with the QBO at 30 and 50 hPa both being considered. The contribution of QBO peaks around January and October may be related to the polar vortex modulated by QBO in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The correlation between the DW1 amplitude and ENSO is negative with time lags <∼5 months during early winter and spring. Key Points: Correlation coefficient is positive for Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) from spring to fall; negative for solar cycle in early winter; and negative for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in early winter and MarchQBO30 and QBO50 contribution peaks may be related to the modulated polar vortex in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectivelyThe DW1 amplitude and the Oceanic Niño Index are negatively correlated with time lags <∼5 months during early winter and spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so‐called subseasonal‐to‐seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow‐dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large‐scale flow using North Atlantic‐European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near‐surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy‐driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime‐uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe. Plain Language Summary: Weather is chaotic, and forecasts several weeks ahead are quite uncertain. Nevertheless, the degree of uncertainty varies, which can be relevant for long‐term planning in various sectors, including agriculture, energy supply, and public health. Here we show that the degree of uncertainty depends on the weather at the time of forecast start, which we categorize using eight characteristic weather patterns for the North Atlantic and Europe. We analyze a large set of forecasts during winter, with lead times up to 6 weeks. For example, persistent high‐pressure systems over Greenland are known to favor low temperatures over northern Europe. Our results indicate that, in addition, temperatures are highly variable in these cases, leading to unusually high forecast uncertainty. In contrast, uncertainty of near‐surface air pressure tends to decrease due to less frequent storms over the North Atlantic. Furthermore, we show that forecast uncertainty of the weather patterns themselves varies, which is useful when large‐scale flow conditions are more critical than local weather. We analyze forecasts under different circulation conditions in the Arctic stratosphere, as these can have long‐lasting impacts on surface weather. We find forecasts of weather patterns become less uncertain when the circumpolar winds in the Arctic stratosphere are weak. Key Points: Ensemble spread of near‐surface weather in subseasonal forecasts is sensitive to the prevailing North Atlantic‐European weather regimeGreenland blocking is linked to the smallest ensemble spread of geopotential but to the largest spread of temperature over northern EuropeWeak polar vortex states are followed by reduced forecast uncertainty of weather regimes but increased uncertainty of European temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geopotential height observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder show that the quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) events with westward zonal wavenumber 1 (W1) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during September 2013 and 2014 had a prolonged lifetime of ∼45–50 days and reached their maximum amplitudes after the September equinox, while the climatological Q6DW‐W1 is completely dissipated in the background atmosphere before the equinoxes. The Eliassen‐Palm flux diagnostic results indicate that Q6DW‐W1 during September 2013 and 2014 obtained an additional source at ∼60°‐80°S and ∼40–50 km as the September equinox approached, which is related to the baroclinic/barotropic instability in this region. Further investigation on the background atmosphere reveals that several stratospheric minor warming (SMW) events occurred in the Antarctic region during September 2013 and 2014 due to the enhancement of wavenumber 1 activities, accompanied by the increase in the stratospheric temperature, changes in the shape of the polar vortex and the reversal in the zonal mean circulation. The strong planetary wave breaking during the September 2013 and 2014 Antarctic SMW events significantly weakened the strength of the polar night jet (PNJ) and made its peak height descend below ∼35 km, which generated the baroclinic/barotropic instability at the new upper boundary of the PNJ (∼60°‐80°S and ∼40–50 km) by an anomalous double‐jet configuration in the background winds. This unusual instability provided additional wave source and energy for the trans‐equatorial propagation of Q6DW‐W1, which finally led to prolonged wave activities in the NH MLT region. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have suggested that sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) during wintertime can additionally trigger large‐amplitude traveling planetary waves (PWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region. However, due to the lower occurrence rate and intensity, there are few opportunities to study the impact of Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming on global PW behaviors, especially for the climatological event of the eigenmode in the Earth's atmosphere. The Aura satellite observations show that the third climatological event of quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 1 (W1) over one year had an exceptionally long duration in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) MLT region in 2013 and 2014, and abnormally peaked after the September equinox, which is not observed in other years since 2004. The reanalysis data confirms that the stratospheric minor warming (SMW) events occurred over the Antarctic region during September 2013 and 2014, which generated instability under an unusual double‐jet structure in the background winds to provide additional energy for the extension of Q6DW‐W1. The current results establish the relationship between the abnormal PW activities in the NH MLT region and the Antarctic SMW events and provide the first observational evidence that the double‐jet structure can influence the westward propagating PW. Key Points: The duration of the quasi‐6‐day wave (Q6DW) with s = 1 (W1) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) was greatly extended in September 2013 and 2014The Antarctic stratospheric minor warmings provided additional wave sources to disrupt the typical dissipation pattern of Q6DW‐W1 in the NHThe impact of the double‐jet structure in the Southern Hemisphere on the behavior of westward propagating planetary waves is first observed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar lows are small, high-latitude, intense maritime cyclones and frequently have severe impacts on the ocean such as strong winds, high waves and heavy rainfall. They are difficult to observe and forecast due to their short lifetime (<48 hours), small horizontal scales (200 ~ 1000 km), and the sparse synoptic observing network that exists in the subarctic and Arctic oceans. Previous studies have identified and monitored polar lows by visual analysis of visible and thermal infrared imagery from satellites. However, this manual inspection method is subjective, time-consuming and inevitably involves errors in polar low detections. In this study, we present an automatic objective procedure which we demonstrate by detecting polar lows using spaceborne active synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and passive microwave radiometer observations. Based on the marker-controlled watershed segmentation method and the morphological image thinning algorithm, the centre locations of polar lows are determined using RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1A high-resolution SAR images and total atmospheric water vapour content fields from radiometers (AMSR2, SSM/I, GMI, and WindSat). Furthermore, the trajectories of polar lows are constructed, using detected centres from multi-temporal SAR and radiometer observations. Polar low detections are confirmed by high surface wind speeds from SAR, scatterometer, and radiometer data, the presence of cloud vortex signatures visible in MODIS, AVHRR, and VIIRS thermal infrared imagery, as well as the difference between the sea surface temperature and the air temperature at 500 hPa. These results show that the proposed methods have potential to automatically detect and track polar lows from multisensor data. We also estimate the characteristic parameters of detected polar lows. The diameters, translation speeds, and distances travelled are 189 km and 225 km, 8 m/s and 4.9 m/s, and 318 km and 263 km, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cold surges have frequently attacked North America (NA) in recent decades, which has been tied to the diminished sea‐ice over the Bering Sea. However, we find that the contribution of sea‐ice loss to NA winter coldness is state‐dependent on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. Using observations and CAM6 model simulations, we find that the phase regulates the atmospheric response to Bering ice loss. During the negative PDO phase (PDO−), there is an apparent eastward‐propagating wave train, accompanied by a strengthened Alaskan ridge and NA cold high, resulting in a robust cold over Central NA. Meanwhile, enhanced upward‐propagating planetary waves weaken the stratospheric polar vortex over the Pacific‐NA regions. During the positive phase (PDO+), the NA temperature response to Bering ice loss is quite weak or even warm. We speculate that more NA cold extremes will appear as the PDO− continues and less as the PDO− shifts to PDO+. Plain Language Summary: Rapid Arctic warming has led to significant local changes in the Arctic and more uncertain remote changes in the Northern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes. However, the link between the Arctic and mid‐latitude North America is state‐dependent. Here, we show that the atmospheric responses to Bering sea ice (SIC) are significantly regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. A significant Central North American cooling associated with Bering SIC loss during PDO− is due to the North American anticyclone and a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. While during PDO+, the North American temperature anomalies associated with reduced sea ice are weak and even warm. The contrasting impacts of Bering SIC loss between distinct PDO phases are because the circulation response to PDO− further strengthens the atmospheric response to the reduced Bering SIC. These new findings can help us improve the prediction of the North American cold extremes during distinct PDO phases. Key Points: Central North American cooling in response to Bering Sea ice loss is greater during the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phaseThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase can modulate the impact of Bering Sea ice loss on North American temperatureThe response to Bering Sea ice loss is associated with a strengthened Alaskan ridge during the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinctive synoptic‐scale (∼1,500 km) flow features are identified within the core of the stratospheric polar‐night vortex at stratopause altitudes (∼50 km). Typically they comprise a train or a complex pattern of transient vortices, each characterized by enhanced values of potential vorticity (PV) and relative vorticity but with a weaker thermal signal. In the MERRA‐2 (and two other) reanalysis fields these cyclone‐like features persist for several days, occur episodically, and form essentially within the core of the polar‐night vortex itself. Their origin is plausibly linked to a form of barotropic instability associated with a radiatively‐induced annular ring of enhanced PV. Moreover, their ubiquity and dynamics carries possible implications for: ‐ the structure of the larger‐scale polar vortex and its preconditioning ahead of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event; the distribution of trace‐constituents within the core; and the features representation in extended range/seasonal prediction and climate models. Plain Language Summary: In wintertime the earth's stratospheric polar vortex extends from a height of around 15 km to well above 50 km and equatorward to around 30° from the pole. At its edge, winds can be significantly in excess of 100 m s−1 whilst the vortex's core has been viewed as an enclosed containment vessel partially insulated from exterior influences. In contrast it is shown that, within the core, spatially rich patterns of synoptic‐scale (∼1,500 km) cyclone‐like features occur at stratopause altitudes (∼50 km). Their scale and structure indicates that their origin is linked to the large latitudinal temperature gradient that can develop across the polar‐night twilight zone. Their ubiquity suggests that they:‐ could contribute to the well‐mixed distribution of chemical constituents within the vortex's core; influence the overall structure of the polar vortex itself; impact upon the breakdown of the vortex during events of Sudden Stratospheric Warming; and need to be adequately represented in seasonal prediction and climate models. Key Points: Distinctive synoptic‐scale cyclone‐like features are identified within the core of the polar‐night vortex at stratopause altitudesAn account is given of their space‐time character and dynamics, and evidence adduced of their presence in three Reanalysis schemesTheir existence carries possible ramifications for seasonal and climate models and for the structure of the polar vortex itself [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three‐dimensional winter (DJF) climatology of Lagrangian diffusivity characterizing eddy mixing and transport in the northern middle atmosphere is presented. To emphasize aspects other than zonal averages, we use the theory of Lagrangian diffusivity (κyy) hitherto not applied in stratospheric contexts to our knowledge. Our formulation of Lagrangian diffusivity requires the calculation of parcel trajectories, which is made on isentropic surfaces. A Lagrangian descriptor is used to estimate the boundary of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). To characterize quasi‐geostrophic motions and their influence on the SPV we apply the wave activity flux (W) and Local Wave Activity (A) $(\mathcal{A})$. Our data set is the ERA5 reanalysis for the period 1979–2013. Results for κyy show important zonal asymmetries. In the lower and middle stratosphere, κyy is highest at midlatitudes, particularly around the prime meridian. This location is surrounded by manifolds associated with hyperbolic trajectories emanating from the outer SPV boundary. κyy is also high within the SPV, and near the locations where the SPV boundary is open. Zonal asymmetries are also clear in W at midlatitudes. The larger values of A $\mathcal{A}$ are at high latitudes and upstream of the opening of the vortex boundary. The role of quasi‐geostrophic waves on the south‐north shift of the midlatitude westerlies is highlighted. In particular, the waves contribute to open the SPV boundary at around 90W. The interannual variability of κyy is explored by contrasting winters with positive‐negative Northern Annular Mode index, and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings of displacement‐split type. Plain Language Summary: This paper applies a novel approach to studying eddy mixing and transport in the northern middle atmosphere during winter (December–January–February). The approach is based on the concept of Lagrangian diffusivity, a measure of how quickly air parcels mix together. Unlike traditional diagnostics that rely on longitudinal or contour‐based averages, Lagrangian diffusivity provides a detailed three‐dimensional view of the mixing. This approach, hitherto restricted to oceanographic applications, is a significant contribution of the present work. We employ a Lagrangian descriptor, a tool based on parcel trajectory length, to locate the stratospheric polar vortex SPV boundary. Also, we investigate the influence of quasi‐geostrophic motions on the SPV using wave activity flux and local wave activity (LWA). The data set is the ERA5 reanalysis from 1979 to 2013. The results reveal pronounced zonal asymmetries in Lagrangian diffusivity and wave activity flux. Mixing is highest at midlatitudes around the prime meridian and at locations within the SPV. LWA is elevated at high latitudes and upstream of the climatological vortex boundary opening, highlighting the role of quasi‐geostrophic waves in the southward displacement of midlatitude westerlies. Comparisons are made of diffusivity during weak and strong vortex winters, as well as of during winters with and without Sudden Stratospheric Warmings. Key Points: Locally, the largest values of Lagrangian diffusivity around the vortex are along the prime meridian at all levels in the stratosphereThe location of maximum diffusivity is bounded by the edge of the climatological displaced vortex and a manifold emanating from the vortex edgeWhen the Northern Annular Mode is positive, the vortex boundary closes and diffusivity is much lower inside [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the sources for spread in the response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to global warming in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) model projections. About half of the intermodel spread in SPV projections by CMIP6 models, but less than a third in CMIP5 models, can be attributed to the intermodel spread in stationary planetary wave driving. In CMIP6, SPV weakening is mostly driven by increased upward wave flux from the troposphere, while SPV strengthening is associated with increased equatorward wave propagation away from the polar stratosphere. We test hypothesized factors contributing to changes in the upward and equatorward planetary wave fluxes and show that an across‐model regression using projected global warming rates, strengthening of the subtropical jet and basic state lower stratospheric wind biases as predictors can explain nearly the same fraction in the CMIP6 SPV spread as the planetary wave driving (r = 0.67). The dependence of the SPV spread on the model biases in the basic state winds offers a possible emergent constraint; however, a large uncertainty prevents a substantial reduction of the projected SPV spread. The lack of this dependence in CMIP5 further calls for better understanding of underlying causes. Our results improve understanding of projected SPV uncertainty; however, further narrowing of the uncertainty remains challenging. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies showed that changes in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex can affect near‐surface weather on various timescales. However, climate models do not agree on whether the polar vortex will weaken or strengthen during the 21st century. Here, we use Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments to better understand how the polar vortex will respond to future greenhouse gas emissions. We show that changes in the propagation of large‐scale atmospheric waves can explain nearly half of the spread in the vortex strength projections by the end of the 21st century by CMIP6 models. Increased upward propagation of the waves to the stratosphere leads to vortex weakening while increased equatorward propagation within the stratosphere leads to strengthening. We identify three factors associated with projected changes in the vortex strength across CMIP6 models: projected rates of global warming, projected rates of subtropical jet stream strengthening and model errors in lower stratospheric winds in the past climate. Stronger global warming rates and stronger past lower stratospheric winds are associated with vortex strengthening, while larger strengthening of the subtropical jet stream is associated with weakening. However, these relationships are weak in CMIP5 models. Key Points: About half of the projected stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) uncertainty in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) can be attributed to stationary planetary wave drivingProjected polar vortex weakening and strengthening are linked to increased upward and equatorward wave propagation respectivelyA relationship is found between past lower stratospheric wind biases and SPV projections across CMIP6 models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Arctic Cyclone 2012 (AC12) is used to understand the role of initial condition errors in the predictability at 2–3‐day forecast range of a high‐impact summer Arctic Cyclone (AC). Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is first performed to identify potentially sensitive regions of the cyclone evolution using an ensemble baseline forecast with conventional in situ observations assimilated. A pseudo‐observation method is then introduced to investigate impacts of hypothetical observations in these sensitive but unobserved regions. In the baseline experiments with in situ observations assimilated, the forecasted AC12 reaches its peak intensity 18 hr earlier than in the verifying Global Forecast System Analysis (GFS‐ANL) and the cyclone track is biased toward the southwest. Using ESA, the time of peak intensity and the cyclone track error are identified to be sensitive to the upstream trough, downstream ridge, and the tropopause polar vortex (TPV) to the northeast (NE TPV) of the AC12. These features were not observed by the in situ observation networks. To examine the impact of the observation gaps, pseudo‐observations drawn from GFS‐ANL are assimilated. Pseudo‐observations sample the three features separately to study the impact of the initial condition error on the predictability of AC12. The cyclone peak intensity timing error and track error are greatly reduced when the initial condition error is reduced near the NE TPV. A southward expansion of the NE TPV and the corresponding southward shifting low‐level front lead the forecasted AC12 to progress to the east, which better agrees with the verifying GFS‐ANL. Plain Language Summary: Accurate prediction of strong Arctic cyclones is critical to the scientific and economical activities in the Arctic. However, the sparse observation networks in the Arctic pose challenges to the data assimilation system to constrain the initial conditions in various features of the Arctic Cyclones. This paper used a case study approach to investigate the impact of initial condition errors in different features on the development of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone. Synoptic features that are sensitive to the track and timing of the cyclone were first identified using ensemble sensitivity analysis. Assimilating in situ conventional observations did not sufficiently constrain the initial conditions in the sensitive features. Hypothetical pseudo‐observations from an external analysis system were then designed and assimilated to study how each sensitive feature affects the prediction of the physical processes of cyclone development. The results showed that more observations inside the TPV to the northeast of the cyclone brought the most significant forecast improvements at a 2‐day forecast lead time. Key Points: Ensemble sensitivity analysis reveals track and deepening trend forecast biases of Arctic Cyclone 2012 are sensitive to unobserved synoptic scale featuresPseudo‐observation experiments show the northeast tropopause polar vortex (TPV) is the most impactful feature among sensitive featuresSouthward expansion of the northeast TPV impacts the cyclone evolution by shifting the low‐level front southward [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an analysis of Antarctic polar winters from 2005 to 2023 as observed by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE). The unique broad band infrared spectral features in ACE "residual" spectra are used to classify the spectra of polar aerosols by composition into polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) and sulfate aerosols. The spectra of PSCs are further classified into nitric acid trihydrate, supercooled ternary solutions, supercooled nitric acid, ice‐mix, and mixtures of PSCs. A breakdown of PSC composition is presented for each year. Antarctic winter seasons with unusual compositions are: 2011, in which volcanic ash mixed with PSCs was observed from July to August; 2019, which experienced a stratospheric warming event; 2020, the PSC season following the Australian Black Summer pyrocumulonimbus event; and 2023, which had unusually large sulfate aerosols following the Honga‐Tonga Honga Ha'apai eruption of 2022. Plain Language Summary: Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) are clouds that form during polar night when temperatures in the stratosphere drop to extreme lows. These clouds play a crucial role in the annual depletion of ozone (the Antarctic "ozone hole"). We present a summary of PSC observations made from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE), which is a satellite‐based mission that has been operational since 2004. Key Points: Antarctic polar stratospheric cloud composition distribution during August and September observed by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE)Polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) composition impacted by large scale stratospheric events such as Australian Black Summer pyrocumulonimbus event and volcanic eruptionsPSC composition distribution is mostly governed by temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on mid-latitude weather and climate in the Northern Hemisphere has attracted widespread attention. Here, using both observations and model simulations, the influence of early-winter Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) sea-ice loss on the winter surface air temperatures in China and the underlying mechanisms are investigated. The results showed that BKS sea-ice loss could induce cooling anomalies over Northeast China, North China, Central China, and Northwest China during winter, with significant increases in both the number of extreme cold days and the intensity of extreme low temperatures over these regions. Furthermore, the respective roles of tropospheric pathway and stratospheric pathway are investigated. For the tropospheric pathway, an eastward propagating wave train stimulated by sea-ice loss induces negative geopotential height anomalies over the western Pacific, favorable for the transport of cold airmass into China. In terms of the stratospheric pathway, sea-ice loss leads to the extension of stratospheric polar vortex edge toward North China by modulating upward propagating planetary waves, further enhancing the tropospheric cooling there. The quantitative analysis indicates that the impact of stratospheric pathway on surface cooling over Northeast China associated with BKS sea-ice loss is more important than that over other regions in China. These results could improve our understanding of the potential linkage between Arctic sea-ice loss and winter weather extremes over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea spray, originating from wave breaking under high wind conditions, can significantly affect turbulent heat fluxes at the air–sea interface. Even though polar lows (PLs) can become extreme weather features with gale‐force wind, the impact of sea spray on their development has rarely been investigated and is not considered in operational forecast models. In this study, the impact of sea spray on the development of two PLs over the Barents Sea is studied based on sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere–wave coupled model, where the spray‐mediated heat fluxes are parameterized. The results show that the impact of sea‐spray‐mediated heat fluxes on PL development is sensitive to the surface wind speed. In the case of the stronger PL, the higher surface wind speed results in significantly higher spray‐mediated heat fluxes. Consequently, these spray‐mediated heat fluxes intensify the convection and diabatic heating of the PL, resulting in its intensification. In comparison, the case with a weaker PL experiences less sea spray production and lower spray‐mediated heat fluxes due to its weaker surface wind speeds. Overall, we find that spray‐mediated sensible heat fluxes play an important role in the development of PLs, while the latent heat fluxes induced by sea spray have a relatively minor impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold‐air outbreaks have significant impacts on human health, energy consumption, agriculture, and overall well‐being. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) models in predicting cold conditions over northern Eurasia, defined here as the lower tercile of weekly mean 2‐metre temperature anomalies. To assess the predictability of these events we use ensemble hindcasts from five prediction systems from the S2S database. Our analysis focuses on identifying the conditions under which the models confidently predict cold temperatures with a high (>0.5) probability 3–4 weeks ahead, which potentially can represent windows of forecast opportunity. We compare the group of forecasts that correctly predicted the events to the group that forecasted events that did not occur in practice (false alarms). Most of the confident forecasts of cold spells, both correct and false alarms, have cold anomalies already in the initial conditions, often in conjunction with either a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or Scandinavian Blocking. We find that S2S models tend to overpredict cold temperatures, with false alarms occurring more likely when the forecasts are initialized during a weak polar vortex. Furthermore, most of the confident false alarms receive the signal from the stratosphere rather than following internal tropospheric dynamics. False alarms initialized during the weak polar vortex conditions are more common when the vortex is in a recovery stage and, subsequently, the downward ‐propagating signal is short‐lived in the troposphere. The analysis of forecasts during different Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases shows that nearly half of all confident correct cold‐temperature forecasts are initialized during an active MJO in phases 6–8. On the other hand, most false alarms occur during phase 3, which we suggest is due to the presence of the Scandinavian Blocking regime in the initial conditions for this phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are sparse opportunities for direct measurement of upper stratospheric winds, yet improving their representation in subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction models can have significant benefits. There is solid evidence from previous research that global atmospheric infrasound waves are sensitive to stratospheric dynamics. However, there is a lack of results providing a direct mapping between infrasound recordings and polar‐cap upper stratospheric winds. The global International Monitoring System (IMS), which monitors compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty, includes ground‐based stations that can be used to characterize the infrasound soundscape continuously. In this study, multi‐station IMS infrasound data were utilized along with a machine‐learning supported stochastic model, Delay‐SDE‐net, to demonstrate how a near‐real‐time estimate of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind at 1‐hPa pressure level can be found from infrasound data. The infrasound was filtered to a temporal low‐frequency regime dominated by microbaroms, which are ambient‐noise infrasonic waves continuously radiated into the atmosphere from nonlinear interaction between counter‐propagating ocean surface waves. Delay‐SDE‐net was trained on 5 years (2014–2018) of infrasound data from three stations and the ERA5 reanalysis 1‐hPa polar‐cap averaged zonal wind. Using infrasound in 2019–2020 for validation, we demonstrate a prediction of the polar‐cap averaged zonal wind, with an error standard deviation of around 12 m·s −1$$ {}^{-1} $$ compared with ERA5. These findings highlight the potential of using infrasound data for near‐real‐time measurements of upper stratospheric dynamics. A long‐term goal is to improve high‐top atmospheric model accuracy, which can have significant implications for weather and climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article delves into the cultural and meteorological significance of Groundhog Day, tracing its roots back to the Christian holiday of Candlemas and its connection to the pagan holiday Imbolc. It explores the folklore surrounding Groundhog Day and its supposed ability to predict the arrival of spring, emphasizing that these predictions are not scientifically accurate but can stimulate discussions about weather and climate. The article also discusses the historical and cultural origins of the Groundhog Day tradition and its diffusion from Europe to America. It raises questions about what constitutes a "fair" Candlemas and the paradox of global warming in relation to the Groundhog Day predictions, highlighting the role of atmospheric circulation and climate patterns in understanding the folklore. [Extracted from the article]

Using two case studies, we analyze the effects of explicitly resolving polar lows in a global climate model (ICON‐Sapphire) with a high resolution of 2.5 km on the upper ocean and sea ice. We aim to understand the mechanism of how polar lows form in a global coupled model and how they interact with the upper ocean and sea ice. When polar lows form at the sea ice edge, they induce marine cold air outbreaks that lead to large heat loss from the ocean. This heat loss contributes to dense water formation in the Iceland and Greenland Seas, which replenishes the climatically important Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW). The high wind speeds of polar lows open leads and polynyas in the sea ice cover, such as the Sirius Water Polynya in northeastern Greenland. Heat loss in polynyas is compensated for by the formation of new ice, and the rejected brine densifies the water on the Greenland shelf. In the Labrador Sea, polar lows intensify cold air outbreaks from the sea ice and rapidly deepen the ocean mixed layer. Resolving polar lows and kinematic features in the sea ice improves the realism of climate models, in particular the surface heat loss and the dense water formation in (sub)polar oceans. Plain Language Summary: We show for the first time that resolving polar lows (strong storms over polar oceans) in a global climate model, which has a high resolution of 2.5 km, leads to strong heat loss from the ocean near the sea ice edge and from leads and polynyas, which are open water areas in an otherwise closed ice cover. Heat loss and salt rejection during ice formation contributes to dense water formation along the sea ice margin and in polynyas above the Greenland shelf. Resolving polar lows and kinematic features in the sea ice improves the realism of climate models, in particular the surface heat loss and the dense water formation in (sub)polar oceans. Key Points: First explicit simulation of polar lows in a globally coupled climate simulation with kilometer‐scale (2.5 km) resolution in all componentsPolar lows lead to considerable heat loss from the ocean near the sea ice edge and from leads and polynyas in the sea ice coverPolar lows are important for water mass transformation in the western Iceland and Greenland Seas, in the Labrador Sea, and within polynyas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropopause-overshooting convection in the midlatitudes provides a rapid transport pathway for air from the lower troposphere to reach the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and can result in the formation of above-anvil cirrus plumes (AACPs) that significantly hydrate the stratosphere. Such UTLS composition changes alter the radiation budget and impact climate. Novel in situ observations from the NASA Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) field campaign are used in this study to examine UTLS impacts from AACP-generating overshooting convection. Namely, a research flight on 31 May 2022 sampled active convection over the state of Oklahoma for more than 3 h with the NASA ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft. An AACP was bisected during this flight, providing the first such extensive in situ sampling of this phenomenon. The convective observations reveal pronounced changes in air mass composition and stratospheric hydration up to altitudes of 2.3 km above the tropopause and concentrations more than double background levels. Unique dynamic and trace gas signatures were found within the AACP, including enhanced vertical mixing near the AACP edge and a positive correlation between water vapor and ozone. Moreover, the water vapor enhancement within the AACP was found to be limited to the saturation mixing ratio of the low temperature overshoot and AACP air. Comparison with all remaining DCOTSS flights demonstrates that the 31 May 2022 flight had some of the largest tropospheric tracer and water vapor perturbations in the stratosphere and within the AACP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of the Antarctic ozone hole in late winter and spring (September–November) is the most noticeable phenomenon in the polar stratosphere. It has appeared every season since the early 1980s within the stratospheric polar vortex, preventing air mass from mixing with middle latitudes and affecting the distribution of minor atmospheric constituents, including ozone. The ozone hole strongly depends on dynamic factors, mainly planetary wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere. This study aims to identify the total ozone longitudinal distribution for austral spring and individual months, September, October, and November, and consider the observed trends in detail. We provide an analysis to retrieve trends in total ozone during the development of the ozone hole. Time averaging of the total ozone longitudinal distribution was performed using the three-month ozone means in the austral spring. This procedure eliminates fluctuations and impacts of traveling waves. The latitudinal range of 55–80S was analyzed to characterize the total ozone distribution in the ozone hole edge and inner regions. Distributions for individual months (September, October, and November) were considered to describe the observed trends in detail. The analysis of the obtained results indicates a close-to-linear negative total ozone trend during the ozone hole intensification (the 1980s–early 1990s). This trend was determined at all the analyzed latitudes, with total ozone decreasing by 150 DU during 15 years in the zonal longitudinal minimum region. However, the analysis of the trends shows that ozone layer recovery is not observed in the Antarctic spring, taking into account low ozone levels in 2020–2023. No clear trends were noted after the period of decline, but the October values in zonal maximum have slightly decreased in the last decade. The zonal minimum has drifted eastward during the decline in total ozone, but the subsequent time range shows large interannual changes without any significant long-term tendency in both maximum and minimum longitudes.

Martian CO2 ice clouds are intriguing features, representing a rare occurrence of atmospheric condensation of a major component. These clouds play a crucial role due to their radiative properties, interactions with surface, and coupling with microphysical cycles of aerosols. Observations have been limited, prompting modeling studies to understand their formation and dynamics. Here, we present the first high‐resolution 3D simulations of CO2 ice clouds using a Large‐Eddy Simulation (LES) model incorporating CO2 microphysics. We investigate cloud formation in idealized temperature perturbations in the polar night. A reference simulation with a −2K perturbation demonstrates that the formed CO2 ice cloud possesses a convective potential, leading to its ascent in the troposphere. We determine the timescales and orders of magnitude of various phenomena involved in the lifecycle of a CO2 ice cloud. Sensitivity tests show that convection can be inhibited or intensified by the thermodynamic and microphysical conditions of the simulated environment. Plain Language Summary: CO2 ice clouds have been observed in the Martian polar nights in the lower atmosphere. These clouds are extremely challenging to observe due to the lack of sunlight. However, they play a significant role in Mars' climate, especially through interactions with the surface and other atmospheric species. To study the formation processes of these clouds, we use a high‐resolution model. Even a relatively weak cooling can lead to the formation of a CO2 ice cloud with convective potential, enabling it to move vertically upward. We determine the characteristic times and altitudes of this phenomenon and investigate how they respond when atmospheric parameters, such as cooling temperature, the presence of extra dust, or horizontal winds are varied. Our findings show that some of these parameters can either inhibit or enhance convection development. Key Points: Coupling a convection model with a CO2 microphysics scheme can simulate the formation of convective CO2 ice clouds triggered by realistic perturbationsThese is a strong coupling between CO2 ice cloud convection and dust cycle in the troposphereThe convective process intensity depends strongly on the number of available condensation nuclei and the temperature of the perturbation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong surface winds induced by polar lows (PLs) may affect the upper ocean. However, understanding of the oceanic responses and feedback processes associated with PLs remains insufficient, especially for observations. Using a combined analysis of satellite‐based sea surface temperature (SST) and PL tracking data, we investigated the oceanic response to 380 PL passages over the Nordic Sea occurring between 1999 and 2018. Consequently, two types of oceanic responses—warming and cooling—occurred in 32% and 40% of the total occurrences, respectively. The average magnitude of SST response was approximately ±0.2 K. Significant differences in upward surface turbulent heat flux (THF) between warming and cooling response cases were found, causing a significant difference in the decay rate after maximum PL development. By analyzing changes in the state variables of the THF, we identified two different feedback processes depending on the oceanic warming/cooling response. During a warming (cooling) response, the atmosphere near the surface becomes more unstable (stable), and the turbulence of the marine atmospheric boundary layer increases (decreases), which strengthens (weakens) the ocean surface wind and decreases (increases) temperature and specific humidity. These changes contribute to increasing (decreasing) the upward THF that influences PL development. The differences between these two responses may be caused by the state of the upper ocean layer, including temperature inversion. The analysis of the in situ observations of the upper ocean supports the hypothesis that a warming response occurs when inversion is strong. This study emphasizes the importance of feedback through oceanic responses for understanding and predicting PL. Plain Language Summary: Small but strong storms that occur at high latitudes often cause significant damage to society. When such a storm occurs, there is great interest in whether it develops or dissipates. In this study, we investigated the records of past storms in the Nordic Sea, focusing on changes in ocean surface temperatures measured by satellites. In certain cases, the water temperature decreased as the storm passed, whereas in others, the water temperature increased. We found that when the water temperature increased, more thermal energy was supplied to the storm from the ocean, and storm attenuation was smaller than when the water temperature decreased. Although the change in water temperature caused by the passage of a storm is small, at approximately 0.2°C, it has been revealed that, simultaneously, changes in near‐surface wind and air temperature occur, which cause thermal energy to be transferred to the storm. These results show that storms and the ocean are not unrelated and that ocean structure is crucial for predicting storms. Key Points: Satellite‐based data revealed two types of oceanic responses—surface warming and cooling—to the passage of polar lows (PLs) over the Nordic SeasOcean observation data suggest that the difference between the two responses is related to the vertical structure in the upper oceanResponses and feedback result in differences in the upward surface turbulent heat flux, which changes the characteristics of PLs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upper mesospheric wind data acquired by the medium frequency radar at Kolhapur (16.7°N, 74.2°E) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application version 2 (MERRA-2) temperature and wind reanalysis datasets are used to investigate the dynamical response of the low-latitude middle atmosphere to the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events that occurred during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 winters. When the amplitude of the high-latitude stratospheric planetary wave (PW) of zonal wavenumber one reduces considerably with the onset of the SSW event, the low-latitude mesospheric PW over Kolhapur also shows a considerable reduction in the PW activity. It is noteworthy that the upper mesospheric winds are eastward for approximately 3 weeks after the onset of SSW. The reduced PW activity is associated with the enhanced gravity wave activity in the meridional wind during the SSW 2018-19 event. The plane of propagation of gravity waves obtained from the perturbation ellipse method suggests that their predominant plane of propagation is in the north-south direction. The persistence of the eastward winds is suggested to be due to the interaction of the northward propagating gravity waves with the mean flow, leading to the eastward acceleration due to the Coriolis force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays a major role in the global sea level rise. The west coast of the GrIS has contributed 1,000 Gt of the 4,488 Gt GrIS mass loss between 2002 and 2021, making it a hotspot for GrIS mass loss. Surface melting is driven by changes in the radiative budget at the surface, which are modulated by clouds. Previous works have shown the impact of North Atlantic transport for influencing cloudiness over the GrIS. Here we used space‐based lidar cloud profile observations to show that a polar low circulation promotes the presence of low clouds over the GrIS west coast that warm radiatively the GrIS surface during the melt season. Polar low circulation transports moisture and low clouds from the sea to the west of Greenland up over the GrIS west coast through the melt season. The concomitance of the increasing presence of low cloud in fall over the Baffin Sea due to seasonal sea‐ice retreat and a maximum occurrence of Polar low circulation in September results in a maximum of low cloud fraction (∼14% at 2.5 km above sea level) over the GrIS west coast in September. These low clouds warm radiatively the GrIS west coast surface up to 80 W/m2 locally. This warming contributes to an average increase of 10 W/m2 of cloud surface warming in September compared to July on the GrIS west coast. Overall, this study suggests that regional atmospheric processes independent from North Atlantic transport may also influence the GrIS melt. Plain Language Summary: The melting of Greenland plays a major role in the global sea level rise. The west coast of Greenland has contributed to 22% of Greenland mass loss between 2002 and 2021, making it a hotspot for Greenland mass loss. Clouds modulate the energy that reaches the surface of Greenland and, therefore, might accelerate or decelerate surface melt. To explain what leads to cloud presence over Greenland, previous studies focused on the connection between the mid‐latitudes and the Greenland cloud cover. Using a combination of satellite cloud observation and models, we highlight that a low‐pressure system over the Arctic brings moisture and low clouds from the sea west of Greenland to the Greenland west coast. Then, we assess the strong surface warming effect of these low clouds. Overall, our study demonstrates that local Arctic processes lead to formation of low clouds where Greenland melts. Key Points: The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) west coast by itself represents 22% of the GrIS mass loss over the last two decadesA polar low promotes the presence of low clouds over the GrIS west coast during the melt seasonThe cloud surface radiative warming on the Greenland west coast is +10 W/m2 larger in September than July due to these low clouds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested possible connections between the decreasing Arctic sea‐ice and long‐duration (>5 days, LD) cold weather events in Eurasia and North America. Here we document the occurrences of weather regimes in winter by their durations, based on the empirical orthogonal function analyses of the daily geopotential height fields at 500 hPa (z500) for the months of November–March 1979–2019. Significant changes in the occurrence frequency and persistence of Ural ridge (UR) and weak stratospheric polar vortex (PV) were found between winters following high and low autumn sea‐ice covers (SIC) in the Barents and Kara seas. It is shown that a strengthening of the UR is accompanied with a weakening of the PV, and a weak PV favors Greenland ridge (GR). Cold spells in East Asia persist for 5 more days after an LDUR. Cold spells from Canada to the U.S. occur 2–5 days after an LD Ural trough (UT) and are associated with a z500 anomaly dipole centered over Alaska (+) and Hudson Bay (−). Cold spells in the eastern U.S. occur 1–4 days after an LDGR due to circulations resembling the Pacific‐North America pattern. Increased occurrences of UR in winter are associated with a decreased eastward propagation of synoptic waves from the North Atlantic to Japan and the North Pacific. Plain Language Summary: Analyses of observations show more frequent occurrences of long‐duration events of Ural ridge (UR), Greenland ridge (GR) and weak polar vortex (PV) in winter tend to follow low autumn sea ice cover (SIC) in the Barents and Kara Seas, and less frequent for Ural trough (UT) and strong PV. Long‐duration UR (GR or UT) events are followed by cold snaps in East Asia (the eastern US or Canada). Long‐term natural or anthropogenic warming in the Arctic and decreasing autumn SIC may cause more frequent cold air outbreaks in East Asia and the eastern US in winter, but less in Canada. Key Points: The Ural ridge regime and weak polar vortex are more frequent and persistent following low autumn sea ice in the Nordic seasThe long‐duration Ural and Greenland ridge regimes are followed by cold snaps in East Asia and the eastern USCold anomalies occur more frequently in Canada with increasing occurrences of the long‐duration Ural trough regimes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate directed translocation of ClO4− anions from cationic to neutral binding site along the synthetized BPym‐OH dye molecule that exhibits coupled excited‐state intramolecular proton‐transfer (ESIPT) and charge‐transfer (CT) reaction (PCCT). The results of steady‐state and time‐resolved spectroscopy together with computer simulation and modeling show that in low polar toluene the excited‐state redistribution of electronic charge enhanced by ESIPT generates the driving force, which is much stronger than by CT reaction itself and provides more informative gigantic shifts of fluorescence spectra signaling on ultrafast ion motion. The associated with ion translocation red‐shifted fluorescence band (at 750 nm, extending to near‐IR region) appears at the time ~83 ps as a result of electrochromic modulation of PCCT reaction. It occurs at substantial delay to PCCT that displayed fluorescence band at 640 nm and risetime of <200 fs. Thus, it becomes possible to visualize the manifestations of light‐triggered ion translocation and of its driving force by fluorescence techniques and to separate them in time and energy domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies have examined the influence of Arctic sea ice on the weather/climate of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the precursor signals of Arctic sea ice regarding East Asian winter low temperatures, which are important for climate prediction, have received little attention. This study identified an out‐of‐phase relationship between the autumn sea ice area of the Kara Sea (SICK) and subsequent winter minimum temperature in Northeast China (NEC) during 1979–2019, that is, diminished SICK facilitates cooling anomalies at NEC. Further results showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) acts as a bridge in the linkage between the autumn SICK and minimum temperature in NEC. Diminished autumn SICK leads to a weakened polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere in the subsequent winter through vertical propagation of planetary waves, contributing to a negative phase of the AO. Accordingly, the SICK is followed by anomalous Rossby wave train that originates from Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia. Thus, the SICK has substantially influences on the Mongolia cyclone and minimum temperature in NEC by modulation of the AO. Moreover, the shrinking SICK could lead to the upper‐level decelerated westerly anomalies at East Asia through altering the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and induce negative minimum temperature anomalies at NEC. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of low temperature anomalies over NEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Melting polar and alpine ice sheets in response to global warming pose ecological and societal risks but will also hamper our ability to reconstruct past climate and atmospheric composition across the globe. Since polar ice caps are crucial environmental archives but highly sensitive to ongoing climate warming, the Arctic and Antarctic research community is increasingly faced with melt-affected ice cores, which are already common in alpine settings of the lower latitudes. Here, we review the characteristics and effects of near-surface melting on ice-core records, focusing on a polar readership and making recommendations for melt-prone study regions. This review first covers melt layer formation, identification and quantification of melt, and structural characteristics of melt features. Subsequently, it discusses effects of melting on records of chemical impurities, i.e. major ions, trace elements, black carbon, and organic species as well as stable water isotopic signatures, gas records, and applications of melt layers as environmental proxies. Melting occurs during positive surface energy balance events, which are shaped by global to local meteorological forcing, regional orography, glacier surface conditions and subsurface characteristics. Meltwater flow ranges from homogeneous wetting to spatially heterogeneous preferential flow paths and is determined by temperature, thermal conductivity and stratigraphy of the snowpack. Melt layers and lenses are the most common consequent features in ice cores and are usually recorded manually or using line scanning. Chemical ice-core proxy records of water-soluble species are generally less preserved than insoluble particles such as black carbon or mineral dust due to their strong elution behaviour during percolation. However, high solubility in ice as observed for ions like F - , Cl - , NH 4+ or ultra-trace elements can counteract the high mobility of these species due to burial in the ice interior. Stable water isotope records like δ18 O are often preserved but appear smoothed if significant amounts of meltwater are involved. Melt-affected ice cores are further faced with questions about the permeability of the firn column for gas movement, and gas concentrations can be increased through dissolution and in situ production. Noble gas ratios can be useful tools for identifying melt-affected profile sections in deep ice. Despite challenges for ice-core climate reconstruction based on chemical records, melt layers are a proxy of warm temperatures above freezing, which is most sensitive in the dry snow and percolation zone. Bringing together insights from snow physics, firn hydrology, and ice-core proxy research, we aim to foster a more comprehensive understanding of ice cores as climate and environmental archives, provide a reference on how to approach melt-affected records, and raise awareness of the limitations and potential of melt layers in ice cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seeley and Wordsworth (2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586‐021‐03919‐z) showed that in small‐domain cloud‐resolving simulations the temporal pattern of precipitation transforms in extremely hot climates (≥320 K) from quasi‐steady to organized episodic deluges, with outbursts of heavy rain alternating with several dry days. They proposed a mechanism for this transition involving increased water vapor greenhouse effect and solar radiation absorption leading to net lower‐tropospheric radiative heating. This heating inhibits lower‐tropospheric convection and decouples the boundary layer from the upper troposphere during the dry phase, allowing lower‐tropospheric moist static energy to build until it discharges, resulting in a deluge. We perform cloud‐resolving simulations in polar night and show that the same transition occurs, implying that some revision of their mechanism is necessary. We perform further tests to show that episodic deluges can occur even if the lower‐tropospheric radiative heating rate is negative, as long as the magnitude of the upper‐tropospheric radiative cooling is about twice as large. We find that in the episodic deluge regime the period can be predicted from the time for radiation and reevaporation to cool the lower atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation plays an important role in Earth's climate and habitability, and also influences important weathering processes such as the carbonate‐silicate cycle. In the distant future, Earth may experience a very hot and wet "hothouse" climate, just like it may have in the Archean. Modeling results show that in a hothouse climate, precipitation transforms into an "episodic deluge" pattern, with outbursts of heavy rain alternating with several dry days. In this study, we find that positive lower‐tropospheric heating is not the necessary cause for episodic deluges. Instead, vertical radiative cooling contrast is critical in triggering the episodic deluges in small‐domain hothouse climates. We also try to understand the underlying mechanism of episodic deluges through CIN and CAPE analyses. Key Points: Episodic deluges can occur during polar nightLower‐tropospheric radiative heating is not necessary for the occurrence of episodic delugesA strong vertical gradient of radiative cooling is a key factor in triggering episodic deluges [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) to phase 6 (CMIP6) is evaluated in this study. On average, a wide coverage of warm biases appears in the Antarctic stratosphere, which is greatest in the early CMIP and is gradually diminished in the two later CMIPs with the number of models reproducing QBO increasing (0, 5, and 19). Four metrics of the Antarctic stratospheric polar vortex are assessed for three generations of CMIPs. Biases such as the overly weak strength, the overly large aspect ratio and the westward drifted vortex centroid are commonly shared across the CMIPs. While with improvements of the model resolution, model top, interactive chemistry and physical process, the intermodel spread narrows generation by generation, especially for high-top models than low-top models in the simulation of vortex area. Further, intermodel spread of Antarctic stratospheric vortex is obviously associated with the bias of austral winter sea surface temperature (SST). Specifically, as cold SST bias in the southern tropical Pacific Ocean and warm SST bias in the Southern Hemisphere Niño 1 + 2 region (Nino) improve, biases in the modelled vortex metrics also decrease, which can be partly attributed to the modifying of the upward propagations of planetary waves over tropical and extratropical oceans. The strengthened relationships in the focused regions further confirms the importance of the SST simulation for the stratosphere vortex simulation. In general, despite biases of the polar vortex existing across CMIPs, marked progresses have been achieved for most models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social scientists have argued that good communication around risks in climate hazards requires information to be presented in a user-relevant way, allowing people to better understand the factors controlling those risks. We present a potentially useful way of doing this by explaining future UK winter precipitation in terms of changes in the frequency, and associated average rainfall, of local pressure patterns that people are familiar with through their use in daily weather forecasts. We apply this approach to a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of coupled HadGEM3-GC3.05 simulations of the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, which formed part of the UK Climate Projections in 2018. The enhanced winter precipitation by 2050–99 is largely due to an increased tendency towards westerly and south-westerly conditions at the expense of northerly/easterly conditions. Daily precipitation is generally more intense, most notably for the south-westerlies. In turn, we show that the changes in the frequency of the pressure patterns are consistent with changes in larger scale drivers of winter circulation and our understanding of how they relate to each other; this should build user confidence in the projections. Across the PPE, these changes in pressure patterns are largely driven by changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex; for most members the vortex strengthens over the twenty-first century, some beyond the CMIP6 range. The PPE only explores a fraction of the CMIP6 range of tropical amplification, another key driver. These two factors explain why the PPE is skewed towards exploring the more westerly side of the CMIP6 range, so that the PPE's description of UK winter precipitation changes does not provide a full picture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, extreme weather events associated with atmospheric blocking in the northern extratropics have become more frequent. This study has revealed the impacts of the stratospheric polar vortex on the blockings over the North Atlantic sector, using both reanalysis data and large-ensemble experiments performed by general circulation model. It is found that a weak stratospheric polar vortex (WPV) can cause more blockings to be generated over Greenland and move more westward than normal, while a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can cause more blockings to be generated over the south of Greenland and Western Europe. The stratospheric polar vortex could influence blocking anomalies by modulating both synoptic-scale eddy and planetary wave activities. Under WPV conditions, the generation of synoptic-scale eddies is suppressed due to decreased upper-troposphere background baroclinicity, which is favorable for positive geopotential height anomalies and more blockings over Greenland. Additionally, WPV can suppress the planetary wave train that is accompanied with lower pressure center over Greenland, further contributing to the positive geopotential height anomalies and more blockings over Greenland. The abovementioned processes under SPV conditions are nearly opposite to those under WPV conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides a systematic analysis of extreme variability in winter Antarctic sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and its relationship with extratropical cyclones. We characterize sea‐ice variability and cyclone activity in different Southern Ocean sectors using atmospheric reanalyzes and a cyclone‐tracking algorithm, and then quantify the proportion of extreme sea‐ice variability engendered by cyclones of different intensities. The regions with relatively lower sea‐ice area (SIA) (the King Haakon VII, East Antarctic, and Bellingshausen sectors) have an even distribution of cyclones within all intensity ranges, while, in the sectors with higher SIA, the Ross/Amundsen displays a higher number of intense and weak cyclones, and the Weddell sector has the majority of weak cyclones. Our systematic analysis reveals a significant link between extreme variability in winter SIC and: (a) all cyclones in the Ross/Amundsen sector; (b) all but the weakest cyclones in the King Haakon VII, East Antarctic, and Bellingshausen sectors; and (c) all but the most intense cyclones in the Weddell sector. The latter result is explained by the fact that the Weddell sector experiences more frequent, weaker cyclones than the other sectors. Cumulatively, approximately 30%–40% of the extreme sea‐ice variability is caused by extratropical cyclones within all regions. Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic is surrounded by a vast region of ice‐covered ocean (sea‐ice). This ice is not a solid lid over the ocean, but rather an ever‐changing mosaic of ice, water, and air. The ice is affected and moved around by both the ocean and the atmosphere. A phenomenon which can have a particularly large impact on the sea‐ice is polar cyclones. Here, we analyze how cyclones can cause the amount of sea‐ice to change within a few days, and whether this depends on the strength of the cyclone. We looked separately at different regions of Antarctica and the surrounding ocean. Our results show that a total of 30%–40% of extreme changes in sea‐ice cover are associated to cyclones. In the Weddell sector, extreme sea‐ice changes are more closely connected to weaker cyclones, which are more frequent in this region. Key Points: There is a significant link between extreme variability in sea‐ice concentration (SIV) and all cyclones in the Ross/Amundsen sectorWithin the King Haakon VII, East Antarctic, and Bellinghausen sectors, all but the weakest cyclones have a significant link with extreme SIVThere is a significant link between extreme SIV and all but the most intense cyclones in the Weddell sector [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat transported in Circumpolar Deep Water is driving the break‐up of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica, that has been simulated to be unavoidable under all plausible greenhouse gas scenarios. However, Solar geoengineering scenarios remain largely unexplored. Solar geoengineering changes global thermal radiative balance, and atmospheric and oceanic transportation pathways. We simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) designed to reduce global mean temperatures from those under the unmitigated SSP5‐8.5 scenario to those under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario with six CMIP6‐class Earth System Models. These consistently show intensified Antarctic polar vortex and sub‐polar westerlies, which mitigates changes to easterly winds along the Amundsen Sea continental shelf compared with greenhouse gas scenarios. The models show significantly cooler Amundsen Sea waters and lower heat content at 300–600 m under SAI than with either solar dimming or the SSP5‐8.5 unmitigated greenhouse gas scenarios. However, the heat content increases under all scenarios compared with present day suggesting that although vulnerable ice shelves would continue to thin, the rate would be lower for SAI even with SSP5‐8.5 specified greenhouse gases, than for the moderate (SSP2‐4.5) scenario. The simulations here use solar geoengineering designed to meet global temperature targets; interventions targeted at preserving the frozen high latitudes have also been proposed that might be expected to produce bigger local effects, but potentially deleterious impacts elsewhere. Considering the huge disruptions to society of ice sheet collapse, more research on avoiding them by intervention technology is a moral imperative. Plain Language Summary: The Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica is important because major ice sheet outlet glaciers are at, or close to, the tipping point threshold when greenhouse gas concentrations become irrelevant to their fate. Multi‐meter sea level rises are essentially inevitable once past this tipping point, forcing hundreds of millions of people to relocate (mainly in the Global South), and costing around $40 billion per year per meter of sea level rise through the rest of the century in coastal defense systems. Hence any methods that may avoid ice sheet collapse should be researched. In this article we use 6 state of the art earth system models to simulate putting aerosols into the stratosphere (mimicking volcanic eruptions), might affect the heat carried by the oceans to the vulnerable glaciers in the Amundsen Sea. The stratospheric aerosols change the winds that drive warm deep water toward the glaciers, lowering the expected melting compared with the no greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, and even the lowered emissions pledged by the international community. This result contrasts with earlier work suggesting the ice sheets were doomed and encourages more sophisticated climate system interventions scenarios targeted toward to high latitudes. Key Points: We simulate the effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and greenhouse gas scenarios on ocean heat flow in the Amundsen SeaSAI impacts stratospheric winds that propagate into ocean circulation changes that reduce heat flow to the ice edgeResearching ideas, that can complement mitigation, may provide alternatives to avoid crossing damaging social tipping points [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of numerical experiments with a chemistry–climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere are presented to study the sensitivity of the polar stratosphere of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to sea surface temperature (SST) variability, both as a result of interannual variability associated with the Southern Oscillation, and because of long-term increases in SST under global warming. An analysis of the results of model experiments showed that for both scenarios of SST changes, the response of the polar stratosphere for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is very different. In the Arctic, during the El Niño phase, conditions are created for the polar vortex to become less stable, and in the Antarctic, on the contrary, for it to become more stable, which is expressed in a weakening of the zonal wind in the winter in the Arctic and its increase in the Antarctic, followed by a spring decrease in temperature and concentration of ozone in the Antarctic and their increase in the Arctic. Global warming creates a tendency for the polar vortex to weaken in winter in the Arctic and strengthen it in the Antarctic. As a result, in the Antarctic, the concentration of ozone in the polar stratosphere decreases both in winter (June–August) and, especially, in spring (September–November). Global warming may hinder ozone recovery which is expected as a result of the reduced emissions of ozone-depleting substances. The model results demonstrate the dominant influence of Brewer–Dobson circulation variability on temperature and ozone in the polar stratosphere compared with changes in wave activity, both with changes in SST in the Southern Oscillation and with increases in SST due to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide observational evidence that the stability of the stratospheric Polar vortex (PV) is a significant driver of sub‐seasonal variability in the thermosphere during geomagnetically quiet times when the PV is anomalously strong or weak. We find strong positive correlations between the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index and subseasonal (10–90 days) Global Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) O/N2 perturbations at low to mid‐northern latitudes, with a largest value of +0.55 at ∼30.0°N when anomalously strong or weak (NAM >2.5 or < −2.1) vortex times are considered. Strong agreement for O/N2 variability and O/N2‐NAM correlations is found between GOLD observations and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) simulations, which is then used to delineate the global distribution of O/N2‐NAM correlations. We find negative correlations between subseasonal variability in WACCM‐X O/N2 and NAM at high northern and southern latitudes (as large as −0.54 at ∼60.0°S during anomalous vortex times). These correlations suggest that PV driven upwelling at low latitudes is accompanied by corresponding downwelling at high latitudes in the lower thermosphere (∼80–120 km), which is confirmed using calculations of residual mean meridional circulation from WACCM‐X. Plain Language Summary: The stratospheric Polar vortex (PV) is a large‐scale circulation pattern that forms over the poles during the winter months, characterized by strong winds circulating in a counterclockwise direction in the Northern Hemisphere. It has previously been demonstrated that the breakup of the PV during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events has a large effect on the composition of the thermosphere. We demonstrate that the PV also influences thermospheric composition during non‐SSW times, including time periods in which the vortex is strong and times in which the vortex is inactive, by correlating observations of thermospheric O/N2 from the Global Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) instrument with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index, which tracks the strength of the PV. We also find strong anti‐correlations between O/N2 and tidal amplitudes from model simulations, which suggests that the PV influences thermospheric composition via changes in mean circulation induced by the dissipation of enhanced waves. We use model simulations to confirm that the NAM‐O/N2 correlations reflect PV induced changes in global circulation patterns. We find that the PV causes enhanced upwelling at low latitudes and corresponding downwelling at high latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Key Points: Polar vortex (PV) activity is correlated with sub‐seasonal O/N2 variability during low Kp winter times at all latitudesWe observe enhanced O/N2 at high southern latitudes and reduced O/N2 at low latitudes in response to northern hemisphere PV activityPV‐O/N2 correlations are shown to reflect PV induced modulations of the residual mean meridional circulation (MMC) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain waves are known sources of fluctuations in the upper atmosphere. However, their effects over the Continental United States (CONUS) are considered modest as compared to hot spots such as the Southern Andes. Here, we present an observation‐guided case study examining the dynamics of gravity waves (GWs) and their impacts on the ionosphere over the CONUS prior to the cold air outbreak in December 2022, which resulted from a significant distortion of the tropospheric polar vortex. The investigation relies on MERRA‐2 and ERA5 reanalysis data sets for the climatological contextualization, analysis of GWs based on National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aqua satellite's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, 557.7 and 630.0 nm airglow emission observations, and the measurements of ionospheric disturbances retrieved from Global Navigation Satellite System signal‐based total electron content (TEC) and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network observations. We demonstrate that the tropospheric polar jet stream shifted toward the Rocky Mountains, generated large amplitude GWs (up to 11 K of brightness temperature), which, aided by winter‐time winds over mid‐latitudes, could propagate to mesospheric heights. The breaking of GWs plausibly led to the generation of a plethora of secondary acoustic and GWs that eventually emerged as the sources of extensive ionospheric fluctuations of ∼3–30 min periods and up to 0.7 TECu, observed across the entire CONUS for several days. This case offers a valuable demonstration of the interplay between tropospheric circulation and the ionosphere over CONUS, pointing to the need for a better understanding of wave‐driven deep‐atmosphere coupled dynamics. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric waves generated by wind flows over the mountains (mountain waves, MWs) play an important role in the dynamics of the upper atmosphere and its ionized part, the ionosphere. The days preceding the December 2022 North American Winter Storm demonstrated unusually long‐living fluctuations in the ionosphere across the whole Continental United States (CONUS). The study of this event, reported in this manuscript, incorporates the analysis of climatological data sets, remote and satellite observations of wave‐related fluctuations in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and the ionosphere. We find that the variability of strong westward winds in the troposphere, flowing over northern part of CONUS (so‐called polar jet stream), led to the generation of MWs over the Rocky Mountains. MWs, supported by the winter‐time wind stratification in the northern hemisphere, likely propagated to altitudes up to ∼90 km and gave rise to secondary atmospheric waves, which in turn induced large amplitude fluctuations in the ionosphere at altitudes of ∼250–350 km observed in Global Navigation Satellite System total electron content and Super Dual Auroral Radar observations. This unique event serves as an important example of the interconnected dynamics between the lower and upper layers of the atmosphere over mid‐latitude regions. Key Points: Alaskan ridge circulation led to southward shifting of polar jetstream and the generation of large‐amplitude orographic gravity waves (GWs) over Rocky MountainsThe breaking of upward propagating GWs resulted in ionospheric disturbances from secondary waves across the entire Continental United States for several daysSuper Dual Auroral Radar Network observations are suitable for the detection of small‐scale and amplitude traveling ionospheric disturbances induced by atmospheric waves [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jupiter's South Polar Region (SPR) was observed by James Webb Space Telescope/Mid‐Infrared Instrument in December 2022. We used the Medium Resolution Spectrometer mode to provide new information about Jupiter's South Polar stratosphere. The southern auroral region was visible and influenced the atmosphere in several ways: (a) In the interior of the southern auroral oval, we retrieved peak temperatures at two distinct pressure levels near 0.01 and 1 mbar, with warmer temperatures with respect to non‐auroral regions of 12 ± 2 K and 37 ± 4 K respectively. A cold polar vortex is centered at 65°S at 10 mbar. (b) We found that the homopause is elevated to 590−118+25 ${590}_{-118}^{+25}$ km above the 1‐bar pressure level inside the auroral oval compared to 460−50+60 ${460}_{-50}^{+60}$ km at neighboring latitudes and with an upper altitude of 350 km in regions not affected by auroral precipitation. (c) The retrieved abundance of C2H2 shows an increase within the auroral oval, and it exhibits high abundances throughout the polar region. The retrieved abundance of C2H6 increases toward the pole, without being localized in the auroral oval, in contrast with previous analysis (Sinclair et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2017.09.016). We determined that the warming at 0.01 mbar and the elevated homopause might be caused by the flux of charged particles depositing their energy in the SPR. The 1‐mbar hotspot may arise from adiabatic heating resulting from auroral‐driven downwelling. The cold region at 10 mbar may be caused by radiative cooling by stratospheric aerosols. The differences in spatial distribution seem to indicate that the hydrocarbons analyzed are affected differently by auroral precipitation. Plain Language Summary: James Webb Space Telescope/Mid‐Infrared instrument observed Jupiter's south polar region in December 2022. The instrument acquired spectroscopic data in the mid‐infrared part of the spectrum, which is sensitive to the temperature of the atmosphere and the chemical abundances. These observations revealed that within the auroral oval there are two regions of high temperatures located at two different altitudes. These are presumably caused by two different phenomena: direct heating from the incoming charged particles in the aurora at a height of 0.01 mbar and adiabatic heating in downdrafts at lower levels. A decrease in temperature was also observed as we approached the South Pole, probably caused by a cold polar vortex associated with stratospheric hazes. We found that the altitude of the homopause (the limit between the well‐mixed part of the atmosphere and the part where molecules are separated according their specific weight) is altered by the auroras, being up to 100 km higher in the auroral region. The atmospheric abundances of acetylene and ethane showed an enrichment of acetylene within the auroral oval, and of ethane at the pole, which may indicate that these molecules are not affected in the same way by the energy input of the aurora. Key Points: The homopause is spatially variable within the polar region and highest within the auroral ovalThe atmosphere inside the Southern Auroral Oval at 1 and 0.01 mbar shows a warming compared with non‐auroral regionsThe C2H2 abundance is enhanced inside the Southern Auroral Oval at 0.1 and 7 mbar, and C2H6 shows an increase polewards [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is estimated to have warmed up to four times faster than the rest of the globe since the 1980s. There is significant interest in understanding the mechanisms by which such warming may impact weather and climate at lower latitudes. One such mechanism is the "stratospheric pathway"; Arctic warming is proposed to induce a wave‐driven weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which may subsequently impact large‐scale tropospheric circulation. However, recent comprehensive model studies have found systematic differences in both the magnitude and sign of the stratospheric response to Arctic warming. Using a series of idealized model simulations, we show that this response is sensitive to characteristics of the warming and mean polar vortex strength. In all simulations, imposed polar warming amplifies upward wave propagation from the troposphere, consistent with comprehensive models. However, as polar warming strength and depth increases, the region through which waves can propagate is narrowed, inducing wave breaking and deceleration of the flow in the lower stratosphere. Thus, the mid‐stratosphere is less affected, with reduced sudden stratospheric warming frequency for stronger and deeper warming compared to weaker and shallower warming. We also find that the sign of the stratospheric response depends on the mean strength of the vortex, and that the stratospheric response in turn plays a role in the magnitude of the tropospheric jet response. Our results help explain the spread across multimodel ensembles of comprehensive climate models. Plain Language Summary: In the last four decades, the Arctic has warmed significantly faster than the rest of the world. Such warming has been suggested to generate waves in the atmosphere that move up into the stratosphere, where they break. If this were particularly powerful, it could disrupt and slow the typically strong and stable band of stratospheric winds encircling the winter pole, with potential consequences for surface weather and climate. However, state‐of‐the‐art models disagree on how this "stratospheric polar vortex" responds to Arctic warming, even in terms of whether it will become weaker or stronger. In this study, our simplified climate model simulations indicate that the stratospheric response depends on certain characteristics of the Arctic warming. As it increases in strength and vertical extent, upward‐moving waves are confined and forced to break lower down, resulting in fewer disruptions of the vortex above. We also find that the state of the vortex influences whether it weakens or strengthens, with implications for near‐surface winds. Our results help explain the range of stratospheric responses simulated by more complex models. Key Points: In a simple GCM, the sign and magnitude of the stratospheric polar vortex response to Arctic warming is highly sensitive to the basic stateThe stratospheric response also depends on the strength and vertical extent of Arctic warming in the troposphereStronger/deeper warming narrows the lower stratospheric waveguide, slowing winds at lower levels than with weaker/shallower warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As well as strong upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere, the state of the stratospheric mean flow has been recognized as a key factor for the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs). The modification of the mean flow to a suitable state for an SSW occurrence is called "vortex preconditioning." Recently, increasing attention has been paid to the role of gravity waves (GWs) in the preconditioning mechanism. However, because of the limited availability of data sets covering the whole neutral atmosphere, much uncertainty still exists in the role of GWs in the preconditioning. The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism of modification of the mean flow in the stratosphere and mesosphere before SSWs from a climatological viewpoint and elucidate the role of GWs in it. We use two state‐of‐the‐art data sets covering the whole neutral atmosphere: a 17‐year medium‐resolution reanalysis data set and the output data from hindcast simulations performed with a GW‐permitting general circulation model. It is shown that the second principal component of the zonal‐mean zonal wind in the stratosphere and mesosphere tends to show a maximum prior to an SSW, characterizing preconditioning. GW forcing alters the structure of the upper part of the jet and contributes to the preconditioning along with planetary waves. Comparison of GW forcing between the reanalysis and GW‐permitting model suggests that the magnitude of parameterized GW forcing is approximately half that of the GW forcing in the polar upper stratosphere where the forcing is responsible for the preconditioning. Plain Language Summary: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are a rapid increase in temperature in the polar winter stratosphere in winter. SSWs are mainly attributed to strong westward forcing caused by planetary waves in the polar stratosphere. To extend the lead time for prediction of an SSW, enhancing our understanding of SSW precursors is of significant importance. One of the possible precursors is so‐called "vortex preconditioning," in which the zonal‐mean flow in the stratosphere gets tuned to a suitable state for strong planetary waves to converge in the polar stratosphere. In this study, using a 17‐year reanalysis data set and high‐resolution general circulation model, both of which cover from the surface to the lower thermosphere (∼110 km in altitude), a statistical analysis and a case study on vortex preconditioning are performed. It is shown that not only planetary waves but also gravity waves (GWs), small‐scale atmospheric waves, play critical roles in the preconditioning process by modifying the zonal winds in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. Results also suggest that parameterization schemes of GWs, which are used in most climate models to reproduce body force induced by GWs without resolving them explicitly, underestimate wave forcing responsible for vortex preconditioning. Key Points: Using high‐top data sets from 17‐year reanalysis and high‐resolution hindcasts, the mechanism of vortex preconditioning is examinedThe second empirical orthogonal function of the zonal‐mean zonal wind in the winter middle atmosphere characterizes preconditioningGravity waves quickly reach and decelerate the top of the eastward jet, helping planetary waves converge in the polar upper stratosphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]