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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can be characterized as a 3D annular structure of elevated potential vorticity (PV). However, strong mature TCs often develop a secondary eyewall, leading to a 3D annular vortex with a double-eyewall structure. Using 2D linear stability analysis, it is shown that three types of barotropic instability (BI) are present for annular vortices with a double-eyewall structure: Type-1 BI across the secondary eyewall, Type-2 BI across the moat of the vortex, and Type-3 BI across the primary eyewall. The overall stability of these vortices (and the type of BI that develops) depends principally upon five vortex parameters: the thickness of the primary eyewall, the thickness of the secondary eyewall, the moat width, the vorticity ratio between the eye and the primary eyewall, and the vorticity ratio between the primary and secondary eyewall. The adiabatic evolution of 3D annular vortices with a double-eyewall structure is examined using a primitive equation model in normalized isobaric coordinates. It is shown that Type-2 BI is the most common type of BI for 3D annular vortices whose vortex parameters mimic TCs with a double-eyewall structure. During the onset of Type-2 BI, eddy kinetic energy budget analysis indicates that barotropic energy conversion from the mean azimuthal flow is the dominant energy source of the eddies, which produces a radial velocity field with a quadrupole structure. Absolute angular momentum budget analysis indicates that Type-2 BI generates azimuthally averaged radial outflow across the moat, and the eddies transport absolute angular momentum radially outward towards the secondary eyewall. The combination of these processes leads to the dissipation of the primary eyewall and the maintenance of the secondary eyewall for the vortex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study how cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices adapt their shape and orientation to a background shear flow in an effort to understand geophysical vortices. Here we use a balanced model that incorporates the effects of rotation and density stratification to model the case of an isolated vortex of uniform potential vorticity subjected to a background shear flow that mimics the effect of surrounding vortices. We find equilibrium states and analyze their linear stability to determine the vortex characteristics at the margin of stability. Differences are found between the cyclonic and anticyclonic equilibria depending on the background flow parameters. When there is only horizontal strain, the vertical aspect ratio of the vortex does not change, whereas increasing the imposed background strain rate causes a change in the horizontal cross section, with cyclones being more deformed than anticyclones for a given value of strain. Vertical shear not only causes changes in the vertical axis but also causes the vortex to tilt away from it upright position. Overall, anticyclonic equilibria tend to have a more circular horizontal cross section, a longer vertical axis, and a larger tilt angle with respect to cyclonic equilibria. The strongest asymmetry between the horizontal cross section of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices occurs for low values of vertical shear, while the strongest asymmetry in the vertical axes and tilt angle occurs for large vertical shear. Finally, by expanding the vortex shape and orientation in terms of the strain rate, we derive simple formulas that provide insights into how the vortex equilibria depend on the background flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents the first research that assimilates the ground-based NEXRAD observations-derived two-dimensional (2D), azimuthally averaged radar radial velocity and reflectivity within 60 km of radius from the hurricane center to examine their influence on the analysis and prediction of a hurricane near and after its landfall. The mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its four-dimensional variational (4D-VAR) data assimilation system are utilized to conduct data assimilation experiments for Hurricane Charley (2004). Results show that assimilation of the radar inner-core data leads to better forecasts of hurricane tracks, intensity, and precipitation. The improved forecast outcomes imply that the changes in dynamical, thermal, and moisture structures from data assimilations made more reasonable conditions for the hurricane development near and after its landfall. Overall results indicate that the assimilation of the radar-derived 2D inner-core structure could be a feasible way to utilize the radar data for improved hurricane prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review and extend the theory of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. The theory contains a solution to the 'dynamo problem', i.e., the problem of determining how a planetary or stellar body produces a global dipole magnetic field. We extend the theory to the case of ideal MHD turbulence with a mean magnetic field that is aligned with a rotation axis. The existing theory is also extended by developing the thermodynamics of ideal MHD turbulence based on entropy. A mathematical model is created by Fourier transforming the MHD equations and dynamical variables, resulting in a dynamical system consisting of the independent Fourier coefficients of the velocity and magnetic fields. This dynamical system has a large but finite-dimensional phase space in which the phase flow is divergenceless in the ideal case. There may be several constants of the motion, in addition to energy, which depend on the presence, or lack thereof, of a mean magnetic field or system rotation or both imposed on the magnetofluid; this leads to five different cases of MHD turbulence that must be considered. The constants of the motion (ideal invariants)—the most important being energy and magnetic helicity—are used to construct canonical probability densities and partition functions that enable ensemble predictions to be made. These predictions are compared with time averages from numerical simulations to test whether or not the system is ergodic. In the cases most pertinent to planets and stars, nonergodicity is observed at the largest length-scales and occurs when the components of the dipole field become quasi-stationary and dipole energy is directly proportional to magnetic helicity. This nonergodicity is evident in the thermodynamics, while dipole alignment with a rotation axis may be seen as the result of dynamical symmetry breaking, i.e., 'broken ergodicity'. The relevance of ideal theoretical results to real (forced, dissipative) MHD turbulence is shown through numerical simulation. Again, an important result is a statistical solution of the 'dynamo problem'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We continue our study of the transition of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence from non-equilibrium initial conditions to equilibrium using long-time numerical simulations on a 128 3 periodic grid. A Fourier spectral transform method is used to numerically integrate the dynamical equations forward in time. The six runs that previously went to near equilibrium are here extended into equilibrium. As before, we neglect dissipation as we are primarily concerned with behavior at the largest scale where this behavior has been shown to be essentially the same for ideal and real (forced and dissipative) MHD turbulence. These six runs have various combinations of imposed rotation and mean magnetic field and represent the five cases of ideal, homogeneous, incompressible, and MHD turbulence: Case I (Run 1), with no rotation or mean field; Case II (Runs 2a and 2b), where only rotation is imposed; Case III (Run 3), which has only a mean magnetic field; Case IV (Run 4), where rotation vector and mean magnetic field direction are aligned; and Case V (Run 5), which has non-aligned rotation vector and mean field directions. Statistical mechanics predicts that dynamic Fourier coefficients are zero-mean random variables, but largest-scale coherent magnetic structures emerge and manifest themselves as Fourier coefficients with very large, quasi-steady, mean values compared to their standard deviations, i.e., there is 'broken ergodicity.' These magnetic coherent structures appeared in all cases during transition to near equilibrium. Here, we report that, as the runs were continued, these coherent structures remained quasi-steady and energetic only in Cases I and II, while Case IV maintained its coherent structure but at comparatively low energy. The coherent structures that appeared in transition in Cases III and V were seen to collapse as their associated runs extended into equilibrium. The creation of largest-scale, coherent magnetic structure appears to be a dynamo process inherent in ideal MHD turbulence, particularly in Cases I and II, i.e., those cases most pertinent to planets and stars. Furthermore, the statistical theory of ideal MHD turbulence has proven to apply at the largest scale, even when dissipation and forcing are included. This, along with the discovery and explanation of dynamically broken ergodicity, is essentially a solution to the 'dynamo problem'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brightness temperature (TB) observations at an infrared channel (10.3 μ m ) of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on board the U. S. 16th Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-16) are used for determining tropical cyclone (TC) center positions and rainband sizes. Firstly, an azimuthal spectral analysis method is employed to obtain an azimuthally symmetric center of a TC. Then, inner and outer rainbands radii, denoted as RIR and ROR, respectively, are estimated based on radial gradients of TB observations at different azimuthal angles. The radius RIR describes the size of the TC inner-core region, and the radius ROR reflects the maximum radial extent of TC rainbands. Compared with the best track centers, the root mean square differences of ABI-determined centers for tropical storms and hurricanes, which totals 108 samples, are 45.35 and 29.06 km, respectively. The larger the average wavenumber-0 amplitude, the smaller the difference between the ABI-determined center and the best track center. The TB-determined RIR is close but not identical to the radius of the outermost closed isobar and usually coincides with the radius where the strongest wavenumber 1 asymmetry is located. The annulus defined by the two circles with radii of ROR and RIR is the asymmetric area of rainbands described by azimuthal wavenumbers 1–3. In general, amplitudes of wavenumber 0 component centered on the ABI-determined center are greater than or equal to those from the best track. For a case of a 60 km distance between the ABI-determined and the best track TC center, the innermost azimuthal waves of wavenumbers 1–3 are nicely distributed along or within the radial distance RIR that is determined based on the ABI-determined TC center. If RIR is determined based on the best track, the azimuthal waves of wavenumbers 1–3 are found at several radial distances that are smaller than RIR. The TC center positions, and rainband size radii are important for many applications, including specification of a bogus vortex for hurricane initialization and verification of propagation mechanism of vortex Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate inner-core thermodynamic (such as moist static energy) and dynamic secondary circulation structure evolutions associated with the rapid intensification (RI) of Super Typhoon Yutu (2007). The results show that the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) and the secondary circulation strength are significantly correlated to the typhoon intensity change. A rapid increase of the MSE during the RI period is primarily attributed to inner core temperature increase, due to enhanced subsidence within the eye and strengthened convective heating along the eyewall. The column-integrated MSE budget analysis shows that its rapid increase during the RI is mainly caused by surface latent heat flux. A further diagnosis of the Sawyer–Eliassen equation shows that the rapid strengthening of the secondary circulation during RI results from both the radially expanding positive diabatic heating over the eyewall and the occurrence of a second heating center outside the eyewall. While the radially expanding eyewall heating contributes about 70% of the secondary circulation change, the outer heating contributes about 30%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of the factors triggering continental environmental changes at the Permian–Triassic transition is of general interest as they allow a better understanding of the most controversial mass extinction of the Phanerozoic. This study investigates the environmental response to external forcings on continental successions at the south‐east‐margin of the Central European Basin System in Germany. Studies from this area are scarce, and its evolution is poorly understood. This work integrates high‐resolution core‐logging and quantitative sedimentary petrography of Middle Permian–Early Triassic successions recovered from the wells Obernsees‐1 and Lindau‐1. The sedimentological investigation reveals major vertical variations in the depositional settings marked by changes in grain‐size trends and facies associations: (i) the progradation of mass flow/fluvial fans over sandflat environments denotes the Guadalupian–Lopingian; (ii) sabkha to shallow‐marine conditions occur during the uppermost Permian; (iii) the onset of braided fluvial sequences marks the Permian–Triassic boundary; (iv) changes in fluvial style, reflecting increased river sinuosity, and aeolian deposition characterize the remaining Triassic. Environmental changes are accentuated by variations in sediment composition. Proximal deposits (for example, alluvial fan) are lithic arkoses, while more distal associations reveal arkosic composition. Detrital modes point to: (i) a high‐grade metamorphic source feeding the drainage of Lindau‐1 (metamorphic index, MI 441–500); and (ii) a mixed low‐grade and high‐grade metamorphic source (MI 277–395) feeding the Permian of Obernsees‐1, passing upward to high‐grade metamorphic (MI 441–500) and subordinate granitoid sources. Compositional signatures and environmental changes suggest distinct drainage evolutions regulated by upstream climate and tectonic controls. The higher plutonic clast content coeval to the onset of fluvial sedimentation and coarse‐grained influxes reflects local tectonic perturbations attributed to the Early Triassic reactivation of Variscan faults. The evidence of perennial fluvial systems during the lowermost Triassic reflects wetter climate conditions in the upstream catchment area, which contradicts the common view of increased aridity at the Permian–Triassic boundary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) intrinsic intensity variability on the large‐scale environment. Using idealized simulations with the Hurricane Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, the growth of TC intensity errors and the subsequent saturation of intensity errors at the mature stage are quantified for a range of environmental conditions. Among several factors, it is found that sea‐surface temperature (SST) and tropospheric static stability are the two main ones affecting the growth rate and saturation of TC intensity errors, with a larger error saturation at maximum intensity equilibrium and a faster error growth rate during rapid intensification for a warmer SST or less stable troposphere. Results from this study highlight the fundamental characteristics of TC intensity predictability, which appears to vary with environmental conditions, instead of being a universal measure for TCs in all ocean basins. These results also suggest a limit on TC intensity forecast accuracy that is governed by the large‐scale environment, which needs to be taken into consideration for future TC model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Upper Permian to Lower Triassic coastal plain successions of the Sydney Basin in eastern Australia have been investigated in outcrop and continuous drillcores. The purpose of the investigation is to provide an assessment of palaeoenvironmental change at high southern palaeolatitudes in a continental margin context for the late Permian (Lopingian), across the end‐Permian Extinction interval, and into the Early Triassic. These basins were affected by explosive volcanic eruptions during the late Permian and, to a much lesser extent, during the Early Triassic, allowing high‐resolution age determination on the numerous tuff horizons. Palaeobotanical and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the end‐Permian Extinction occurs at the top of the uppermost coal bed, and the Permo‐Triassic boundary either within an immediately overlying mudrock succession or within a succeeding channel sandstone body, depending on locality due to lateral variation. Late Permian depositional environments were initially (during the Wuchiapingian) shallow marine and deltaic, but coastal plain fluvial environments with extensive coal‐forming mires became progressively established during the early late Permian, reflected in numerous preserved coal seams. The fluvial style of coastal plain channel deposits varies geographically. However, apart from the loss of peat‐forming mires, no significant long‐term change in depositional style (grain size, sediment‐body architecture, or sediment dispersal direction) was noted across the end‐Permian Extinction (pinpointed by turnover of the palaeoflora). There is no evidence for immediate aridification across the boundary despite a loss of coal from these successions. Rather, the end‐Permian Extinction marks the base of a long‐term, progressive trend towards better‐drained alluvial conditions into the Early Triassic. Indeed, the floral turnover was immediately followed by a flooding event in basinal depocentres, following which fluvial systems similar to those active prior to the end‐Permian Extinction were re‐established. The age of the floral extinction is constrained to 252.54 ± 0.08 to 252.10 ± 0.06 Ma by a suite of new Chemical Abrasion Isotope Dilution Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry U‐Pb ages on zircon grains. Another new age indicates that the return to fluvial sedimentation similar to that before the end‐Permian Extinction occurred in the basal Triassic (prior to 251.51 ± 0.14 Ma). The character of the surface separating coal‐bearing pre‐end‐Permian Extinction from coal‐barren post‐end‐Permian Extinction strata varies across the basins. In basin‐central locations, the contact varies from disconformable, where a fluvial channel body has cut down to the level of the top coal, to conformable where the top coal is overlain by mudrocks and interbedded sandstone–siltstone facies. In basin‐marginal locations, however, the contact is a pronounced erosional disconformity with coarse‐grained alluvial facies overlying older Permian rocks. There is no evidence that the contact is everywhere a disconformity or unconformity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at understanding how deep convection is organized and contributes to the intensification of nine Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones which developed between 2005 and 2018. Through a multi‐satellite approach, a combination of infrared and microwave diagnostics provides insights into the temporal and spatial evolution of deep convection. ERA5 reanalysis complements the remote‐sensing observations and is used to compute the vertical wind shear and vortex tilt to investigate their interactions with deep convection. Results show that vertical wind shear and topography have an important impact on the organization of deep convection and the symmetry of the cyclones. Only a fraction of these cyclones experienced intense convective activity close to their centres and we show that persistent deep convection in the upshear quadrants led to intensification periods. Convective activity solely in the downshear quadrants was not linked to intensification periods, while short‐lived hurricane‐like structures develop only during symmetric convective activity, leading to cyclone intensification in some of the cases. Finally, a classification of the Mediterranean tropical‐like cyclones is proposed based on the evolution of deep convection and their intensification periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the interaction between two quasi-geostrophic vortices of height-to-width aspect ratio h/r, lying at two different vertical levels. We investigate whether such structures naturally align. In the case the vortices occupy distinct yet contiguous vertical levels, such an alignment can contribute to the growth in volume of oceanic mesoscale vortices. The other growth mechanism is the merger of vortices sharing common vertical levels. We show that there exist titled equilibrium states where vortices nearly align slantwise. Most equilibria for prolate vortices ( h / r > 1) are stable apart in a very narrow region of the parameter space. The instability is however normally non-destructive. Pairs of oblate vortices may also be in an unstable equilibria if they are moderately offset in the horizontal direction. In this case, the instability may result in the shedding of filamentary potentially vorticity away from the vortices. This shedding of potential vorticity may result in the further alignment of the main structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sedimentary successions provide direct evidence of climate and tectonics, and these give clues about the causes of the mass extinction around the Permian–Triassic boundary. Terrestrial Permian–Triassic boundary strata in the eastern Ordos Basin, North China, include the Late Permian Sunjiagou, Early Triassic Liujiagou and late Early Triassic Heshanggou formations in ascending order. The Sunjiagou Formation comprises cross‐bedded sandstones overlaid by mudstones, indicating meandering rivers with channel, point bar and floodplain deposits. The Liujiagou Formation was formed in braided rivers of arid sand bars interacting with some aeolian dune deposits, distinguished by abundant sandstones where diverse trough and planar cross‐bedding and aeolian structures (for example, inverse climbing‐ripple, translatent‐ripple lamination, grainfall and grainflow laminations) interchange vertically and laterally. The Heshanggou Formation is a rhythmic succession of mudstones interbedded with thin medium‐grained sandstones mainly deposited in a shallow lacustrine environment. Overall, the sharp meandering to braided to shallow lake sedimentary transition documents palaeoenvironmental changes from semi‐arid to arid and then to semi‐humid conditions across the Permian–Triassic boundary. The die‐off of tetrapods and plants, decreased bioturbation levels in the uppermost Sunjiagou Formation, and the bloom of microbially‐induced sedimentary structures in the Liujiagou Formation marks the mass extinction around the Permian–Triassic boundary. The disappearance of microbially‐induced sedimentary structures, increasingly intense bioturbation from bottom to top and the reoccurrence of reptile footprints in the Heshanggou Formation reveal gradual recovery of the ecosystem after the Permian–Triassic boundary extinction. This study is the first to identify the intensification of aeolian activity following the end‐Permian mass extinction in North China. Moreover, while northern North China continued to be uplifted tectonically from the Late Palaeozoic to Late Mesozoic, the switch of sedimentary patterns across the Permian–Triassic boundary in Shanxi is largely linked to the development of an arid and subsequently semi‐humid climate condition, which probably directly affected the collapse and delayed recovery in palaeoecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, potential impacts of monsoon gyres (MG) on the development of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated using idealized numerical simulations. When a TC is embedded in an MG, our results show that its development is slower, and its intensity is weaker compared with that evolved with no background flow. We identified three MG dynamic mechanisms that can affect TC development. First, the superposition of TC and MG circulations produce a larger outer size for the TC. A TC with a larger size develops slowly and has a reduced capacity to organize convection through vorticity segregation process. Deep convection is located mainly outside the radius of maximum wind, resulting in slower intensification rates. Secondly, when the TC is embedded on the eastern flank of the MG, its outer profile becomes barotropically unstable. The asymmetric perturbations exhibit an up‐shear tilting, which extracts kinetic energy from the primary vortex and thus hinders TC intensification. In the third mechanism, the vertical baroclinic nature of the MG imposes an ambient vertical wind shear on the TC, leading to a vertical tilting and increased asymmetric perturbation that hinders TC intensification. The MG relative humidity also impacts TC intensification, with negative impacts greater in drier environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean basin occasionally hosts tropical‐like cyclones named “Medicanes”. Medicanes may have intensity comparable to hurricanes in terms of wind speeds along with an axisymmetric cloud structure. Although these events can be particularly violent, very few studies so far have investigated the distribution and temporal evolution of deep convection within these cyclones. In this study, the characteristics and lifetime of deep convection and lightning activity surrounding the core of the longest‐lasting and probably the most intense Medicane ever recorded in terms of wind speed (Rolf, November 2011) are presented by all available means of microwave and infrared satellite retrievals and a lightning detection system. Results showed that deep convective clouds penetrated the lowest stratosphere and were wrapped around the cyclone centre during the intensification period. Lightning activity was mostly active about a day before the maximum strength of the cyclone studied and it was not temporarily correlated with the most intense deep convection activity. Overall, this study reveals that spatial and temporal distribution of deep convection and lightning activity around the centre of Rolf show more similarities with Tropical Cyclones than intense Mediterranean cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike modern mammalian communities, terrestrial Paleozoic and Mesozoic vertebrate systems were characterized by carnivore faunas that were as diverse as their herbivore faunas. The comparatively narrow food base available to carnivores in these paleosystems raises the possibility that predator-prey interactions contributed to unstable ecosystems by driving populations to extinction. Here, we develop a model of predator-prey interactions based on diversity, abundance and body size patterns observed in the Permo-Triassic vertebrate fossil record of the Karoo Basin, South Africa. Our simulations reflect empirical evidence that despite relatively high carnivore: herbivore species ratios, herbivore abundances were sufficient for carnivores to maintain required intake levels through most of the Karoo sequence. However, high mortality rates amongst herbivore populations, even accounting for birth rates of different-sized species, are predicted for assemblages immediately preceding the end-Guadalupian and end-Permian mass extinctions, as well as in the Middle Triassic when archosaurs replaced therapsids as the dominant terrestrial fauna. These results suggest that high rates of herbivore mortality could have played an important role in biodiversity declines leading up to each of these turnover events. Such declines would have made the systems especially vulnerable to subsequent stochastic events and environmental perturbations, culminating in large-scale extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives:Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. Method:1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible–Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. Results:417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. Conclusion:LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel tropical cyclone (TC) size estimation model (TC-SEM) in the western North Pacific was developed based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) using geostationary satellite infrared (IR) images. The proposed TC-SEM was tested using three CNN schemes: a single-task regression model that separately estimated the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and the radius of 34 kt wind (R34) of the TC, a multi-task regression model that estimated the RMW and R34 simultaneously, and a multi-task regression model using best-track TC intensity information. For model training, validation, and testing, 29,730, 2505, and 11,624 geostationary satellite images of the region around the center of the TC, respectively, were used, each containing four IR bands: short-wavelength IR (3.7 µm), water vapor (6.7 µm), IR1 (10.8 µm), and IR2 (12.0 µm). The results showed that the multi-task model performed better than the single-task model due to knowledge sharing and its ability to solve multiple interrelated tasks simultaneously. The inclusion of TC intensity information in the multi-task model further improved the performance of the RMW and R34 estimations, with correlations (mean absolute errors) of 0.95 (2.05 nmi) and 0.93 (9.77 nmi), respectively, which represent significant improvements over the performance of existing linear regression statistical methods. The results suggested that this CNN model using geostationary satellite images may be a powerful tool for estimating TC sizes in operational TC forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find the analytical form of inertial waves in an incompressible, rotating fluid constrained by concentric inner and outer spherical surfaces with homogeneous boundary conditions on the normal components of velocity and vorticity. These fields are represented by Galerkin expansions whose basis consists of toroidal and poloidal vector functions, i.e., products and curls of products of spherical Bessel functions and vector spherical harmonics. These vector basis functions also satisfy the Helmholtz equation and this has the benefit of providing each basis function with a well-defined wavenumber. Eigenmodes and associated eigenfrequencies are determined for both the ideal and dissipative cases. These eigenmodes are formed from linear combinations of the Galerkin expansion basis functions. The system is truncated to numerically study inertial wave structure, varying the number of eigenmodes. The largest system considered in detail is a 25 eigenmode system and a graphical depiction is presented of the five lowest dissipation eigenmodes, all of which are non-oscillatory. These results may be useful in understanding data produced by numerical simulations of fluid and magnetofluid turbulence in a spherical shell that use a Galerkin, toroidal–poloidal basis as well as qualitative features of liquids confined by a spherical shell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses where tropical cyclone (TC) surface winds can be measured as a function of footprint sizes and wavelengths (Ka- Ku- and C-band). During TCs, most high-resolution surface observations are impeded by considerable 'rain contamination.' Under these conditions, high-resolution surface observations typically come from operational aircraft. Other techniques that provide high-resolution surface observations through rain are also hindered somewhat by rain contamination and are very sparse in space and time. The impacts of rain are functions of the remotely sensed wavelength and rain–drop size. Therefore, relative long wavelengths have been used to observe the surface, but at the cost of a larger footprint. We examine how smaller footprint sizes could be used to observe through gaps between moderate to heavy rainbands that circulate around the main low-pressure center of a TC. Aircraft data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) WP-3D turboprop aircraft will be used to create realistic maps of rain. Our results provide information on the satellite instrument characteristics needed to see the surface through these gaps. This information is expected to aid in developing hurricane-related applications of new higher-resolution satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise center-detection of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical for dynamic analysis in high resolution model data. The existence of both smaller scale perturbations and larger scale circulations could reduce the accuracy of center positioning. In this study, an objective center-finding algorithm is developed based on a two-dimensional Fourier filter and a vorticity centroid algorithm. This proposed algorithm is able to automatically adjust its parameters according to the scale of the target vortex instead of using artificially prescribed parameters in previous research. What's more, this new algorithm has been optimized and validated by a hundred idealized vortexes with different sizes and small-scale perturbations. A high-resolution simulation of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) was used to evaluate the performance of the new algorithm, and the proposed objective center-finding algorithm was found able to detect a precise and reliable center. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the asymmetric distribution of hurricane boundary layer height scales in a storm-motion-relative framework using global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde observations. Data from a total of 1916 dropsondes collected within four times the radius of maximum wind speed of 37 named hurricanes over the Atlantic basin from 1998 to 2015 are analyzed in the composite framework. Motion-relative quadrant mean composite analyses show that both the kinematic and thermodynamic boundary layer height scales tend to increase with increasing radius in all four motion-relative quadrants. It is also found that the thermodynamic mixed layer depth and height of maximum tangential wind speed are within the inflow layer in all motion-relative quadrants. The inflow layer depth and height of the maximum tangential wind are both found to be deeper in the two front quadrants, and they are largest in the right-front quadrant. The difference in the thermodynamic mixed layer depth between the front and back quadrants is smaller than that in the kinematic boundary layer height. The thermodynamic mixed layer is shallowest in the right-rear quadrant, which may be due to the cold wake phenomena. The boundary layer height derived using the critical Richardson number ( R i c ) method shows a similar front-back asymmetry as the kinematic boundary layer height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in both symmetric wind components and asymmetric wave amplitudes of a tropical cyclone depend on the location of its center. Because the radial structure of asymmetries is critical to the wave–mean interaction, this study, under idealized conditions, examines the influences of a center location on the radial structure of the diagnosed asymmetries. It has been found that the amplitudes of aliasing asymmetries are mainly affected by the initial symmetric fields. Meanwhile, the radial structure of asymmetry is controlled by the aliasing direction. Sensitivity tests on the location of the center were employed to emphasize the importance of the aliasing direction using angular momentum equations. With a small displacement, the tendencies of azimuthal tangential wind are found to reverse completely when the center shifts to a different direction. This work concludes that the diagnostic results related to asymmetric decomposition should be treated rigorously, as they are prone to inaccuracies, which in turn affect cyclone prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]