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Understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on zoonotic disease risk is both a critical conservation objective and a public health priority. Here, we evaluate the effects of multiple forms of anthropogenic disturbance across a precipitation gradient on the abundance of pathogen-infected small mammal hosts in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system in central Kenya. Our results suggest that conversion to cropland and wildlife loss alone drive systematic increases in rodent-borne pathogen prevalence, but that pastoral conversion has no such systematic effects. The effects are most likely explained both by changes in total small mammal abundance, and by changes in relative abundance of a few high-competence species, although changes in vector assemblages may also be involved. Several pathogens responded to interactions between disturbance type and climatic conditions, suggesting the potential for synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on the distribution of disease risk. Overall, these results indicate that conservation can be an effective tool for reducing abundance of rodent-borne pathogens in some contexts (e.g. wildlife loss alone); however, given the strong variation in effects across disturbance types, pathogen taxa and environmental conditions, the use of conservation as public health interventions will need to be carefully tailored to specific pathogens and human contexts.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Small terrestrial mammals are major hosts of infectious agents responsible for zoonotic diseases. Astroviruses (AstVs)–the cause of non-bacterial gastroenteritis mainly affecting young children–have been detected in a wide array of mammalian and avian host species. However, understanding the factors that influence AstV infection within and across hosts is limited. Here, we investigated the impact of land use changes on AstVs in terrestrial small mammals in rural northeastern Madagascar. We sampled 515 small mammals, representing seven endemic and four introduced species. Twenty-two positive samples were identified, all but one of which were found in the introduced species Mus musculus and Rattus rattus (family Muridae), with a positivity rate of 7.7% (6/78) and 5.6% (15/266), respectively. The non-introduced rodent case was from an endemic shrew-tenrec (family Tenrecidae). We found the highest positivity rate of AstVs infection in brushy regrowth (17.5%, 7/40) as compared to flooded rice fields (4.60%, 8/174), secondary forest (4.1%, 3/74), agroforest (3.6%, 1/28), village (2.61%, 3/115), and semi-intact forest (0%, 0/84). A phylogenetic analysis revealed an association between AstVs and their rodent host species. None of the viruses were phylogenetically related to AstVs previously described in Malagasy bats. This study supports AstV circulation in synanthropic animals in agricultural habitats of Madagascar and highlights the need to assess the spillover risk to human populations in rural areas. Author summary: This article describes the diversity of Astroviruses (AstVs) shed by Malagasy terrestrial small mammals and explores the impact of habitat degradation on positivity rate in animal reservoirs. Using a sample of 515 terrestrial small mammals from northeastern Madagascar, we show that AstV infection is almost exclusively restricted to rats and mice, suggesting that AstVs from terrestrial mammals were introduced to Madagascar. A phylogenetic analysis including AstVs sequences from Malagasy small mammals reveals a strong structuring of AstV sequences within host species, indicating limited host switching of these viruses among small mammals. Finally, positivity rates show that some habitat types are particularly conducive to AstV infection in reservoirs, such as rice fields where mice exhibit maximal infection. Altogether, presented data encourage the need for assessing the actual exposure of the local human population to the AstVs in small mammals, especially rice-field farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic disturbances involving land use change, climate disruption, pollution and invasive species have been shown to impact immune function of wild animals. These immune changes have direct impacts on the fitness of impacted animals and, also, potentially indirect effects on other species and on ecological processes, notably involving the spread of infectious disease. Here, we investigate whether the selective loss of large wildlife can also drive changes in immune function of other consumer species. Using a long-standing large-scale exclosure experiment in East Africa, we investigated the effects of selective removal of large wildlife on multiple measures of immune function in the dominant small rodent in the system, the East African pouched mouse, Saccostomus mearnsi. We find support for a general increase in immune function in landscapes where large wildlife has been removed, but with some variation across immune parameters. These changes may be mediated in part by increased pathogen pressure in plots where large wildlife has been removed due to major increases in rodent density in such plots, but other factors such as changes in food resources are also likely involved. Overall, our research reveals that the elimination of large-bodied wildlife - now recognized as another major form of global anthropogenic change - may have cascading effects on immune health, with the potential for these effects to also impact disease dynamics in ecological communities. Lay Summary Functional Ecology

Objectives: The ongoing risk of emerging infectious disease has renewed calls for understanding the origins of zoonoses and identifying future zoonotic disease threats. Given their close phylogenetic relatedness and geographic overlap with humans, non‐human primates (NHPs) have been the source of many infectious diseases throughout human evolution. NHPs harbor diverse parasites, with some infecting only a single host species while others infect species from multiple families. Materials and Methods: We applied a novel link‐prediction method to predict undocumented instances of parasite sharing between humans and NHPs. Our model makes predictions based on phylogenetic distances and geographic overlap among NHPs and humans in six countries with high NHP diversity: Columbia, Brazil, Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, China, and Indonesia. Results: Of the 899 human parasites documented in the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) database for these countries, 12% were shared with at least one other NHP species. The link prediction model identified an additional 54 parasites that are likely to infect humans but were not reported in GIDEON. These parasites were mostly host generalists, yet their phylogenetic host breadth varied substantially. Discussion: As human activities and populations encroach on NHP habitats, opportunities for parasite sharing between human and NHPs will continue to increase. Our study identifies specific infectious organisms to monitor in countries with high NHP diversity, while the comparative analysis of host generalism, parasite taxonomy, and transmission mode provides insights to types of parasites that represent high zoonotic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Targeted surveillance allows public health authorities to implement testing and isolation strategies when diagnostic resources are limited, and can be implemented via the consideration of social network topologies. However, it remains unclear how to implement such surveillance and control when network data are unavailable. Methods We evaluated the ability of sociodemographic proxies of degree centrality to guide prioritized testing of infected individuals compared to known degree centrality. Proxies were estimated via readily available sociodemographic variables (age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, household size). We simulated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics via a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered individual-based model on 2 contact networks from rural Madagascar to test applicability of these findings to low-resource contexts. Results Targeted testing using sociodemographic proxies performed similarly to targeted testing using known degree centralities. At low testing capacity, using proxies reduced infection burden by 22%–33% while using 20% fewer tests, compared to random testing. By comparison, using known degree centrality reduced the infection burden by 31%–44% while using 26%–29% fewer tests. Conclusions We demonstrate that incorporating social network information into epidemic control strategies is an effective countermeasure to low testing capacity and can be implemented via sociodemographic proxies when social network data are unavailable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]