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BACKGROUND: Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking. METHODS: Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS. FINDINGS: Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history. CONCLUSIONS: Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation s

BACKGROUND: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. METHODS: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. RESULTS: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients wa

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Background: the prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. Objective: to determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. Methods: we redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. Results: people who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. Conclusion: this study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions., The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was financially supported by National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (fellowship nos.1140766 and 1080518, project grant nos. 1129189 and 1083539), the University of Melbourne (Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences research fellowship), National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) Advanced Fellowship (grant no. 301728; recipient JWLB) and Academic Clinical Fellowship (grant no. EAN/ACA-006/7488627/C; recipient CD). The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer Schering, Sanofi Genzyme, and Teva. Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the University of Melbourne and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK) had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS. METHOD(S): This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and >=1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. RESULT(S): 46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40degree, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (beta=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (be

Background: Our current understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of multiple sclerosis (MS) therapies is limited. Objective(s): To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in MS varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Method(s): Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models (MSMs) were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. MSMs were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23 687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMT experienced 20% greater chance of disability improvement [HR 1.20 (95% CI 1.0-1.5)], 47% lower risk of disability worsening [HR 0.53 (0.39-0.71)] and 51% reduction in relapses [HR 0.49 (0.43-0.55)]. The effect of DMT on relapses and EDSS worsening was attenuated with longer MS duration and higher prior relapse rate. The effect of DMT on EDSS improvement and relapses was more evident in low EDSS categories. DMT was associated with 51% EDSS improvement in patients without new MRI lesions [HR 1.51 (1.00-2.28)] compared to 4% in those with MRI activity [HR 1.04 (0.88-1.24)]. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMT was associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR 0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR 0.58 (CI 0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR 1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR 1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, pro

Objective: To assess whether patients' response to disease modifying therapies (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) varies by disease activity (annualised relapse rate, presence of new MRI lesions), disability, age, MS duration or disease phenotype. Background(s): Our understanding of demographic and clinical modifiers of the effectiveness of MS therapies is limited. Design/Methods: Using the international MSBase registry, we selected patients with MS followed for >=1 year, with >=3 visits, >=1 visit per year. Marginal structural models were used to compare the hazard ratios (HR) of 6-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability (EDSS), and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Models were continuously re-adjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability and MRI activity. Result(s): Among 23687 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence [HR=0.52 (0.44-0.61)], 48% lower risk of disability worsening [HR=0.52 (0.38-0.71)] and 33% greater chance of disability improvement [HR=1.33 (95%CI 1.0-1.5)]. The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The effect of DMTs on reducing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and in patients with prior cerebral MRI activity. Among 26329 participants with relapsing or progressive MS, DMTs were associated with 25% reduction in EDSS worsening and 42% reduction in relapses in patients with relapsing MS [HR=0.75 (0.65-0.86) and HR=0.58 (0.54-62), respectively], while evidence for such beneficial effects of treatment in patients with progressive MS was not found [HR=1.11 (0.91-1.46) and HR=1.16 (0.91-1.46), respectively]. Conclusion(s): DMTs are associated with reduction in relapse frequency, progression of disability, and increased chance of recovery from disability. The DMTs are most effective among patients with lower

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of multiple sclerosis (MS). Background(s): Severity of (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding of determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS in individual patients. Design/Methods: This observational study used the global MSBase registry. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS, a decile of disability relative to a normative cohort with similar disease duration). The latitude of each study center (stratified by hemisphere) and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS. Result(s): 46,128 patients (70% women, mean age 39+/-12, resident between latitudes 19degree35' and 56degree16', cumulative follow-up 351,196 patient-years) were included. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. Above 40degree of latitude, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (beta= 0.08, 95%CI: 0.04, 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40degree (beta= 0.02, 95%CI: 0.06, 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (beta= 0.5, 95%CI: 0.6, 0.4) and 18 years (beta= 0.6, 95%CI: 0.7, 0.4) as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (beta= 1.0, 95%CI: 1.1, 0.9). Conclusion(s): In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure. Thus, UVB exposure contributes to both MS susceptibility a

BACKGROUND: Delayed-release dimethyl fumarate (DMF) has demonstrated robust efficacy in treating patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Decreases in absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) are a well-known pharmacodynamic effect of DMF treatment, but lymphocyte recovery dynamics are not well characterized after discontinuation of DMF. METHODS: Data sources included the Biogen DMF integrated clinical trial data set, a retrospective US chart abstraction study, and data from MSBase. We assessed rate and time course of lymphocyte reconstitution after DMF discontinuation. RESULTS: The majority of patients who developed lymphopenia while treated with DMF and subsequently discontinued treatment experienced ALC reconstitution. The median time to reach ALC ≥0.8 × 109/L was 2-4 months after discontinuation for patients treated in real-world data sets; the median time to reach ALC ≥0.91 × 109/L was 2 months after discontinuation in DMF clinical trials. Severity of lymphopenia on treatment and decline in ALC within the first 6 months did not affect the ALC reconstitution rate after DMF discontinuation; rather, on-treatment lymphopenia duration influenced the reconstitution rate. In patients with severe, prolonged lymphopenia for ≥3 years, lymphocyte reconstitution to ≥0.91 × 109/L was 12-18 months vs 2-3 months in patients with lymphopenia persisting <6 months. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients who discontinued DMF due to lymphopenia experienced ALC reconstitution within 2-4 months following DMF discontinuation. This may help guide clinicians in managing patients who develop lymphopenia during DMF treatment. Prolonged lymphopenia on DMF treatment is associated with slow lymphocyte recovery after DMF discontinuation.

BACKGROUND: Alemtuzumab, an anti-CD52 antibody, is proven to be more efficacious than interferon beta-1a in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, but its efficacy relative to more potent immunotherapies is unknown. We compared the effectiveness of alemtuzumab with natalizumab, fingolimod, and interferon beta in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis treated for up to 5 years. METHODS: In this international cohort study, we used data from propensity-matched patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from the MSBase and six other cohorts. Longitudinal clinical data were obtained from 71 MSBase centres in 21 countries and from six non-MSBase centres in the UK and Germany between Nov 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. Key inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of definite relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, exposure to one of the study therapies (alemtuzumab, interferon beta, fingolimod, or natalizumab), age 65 years or younger, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6·5 or lower, and no more than 10 years since the first multiple sclerosis symptom. The primary endpoint was annualised relapse rate. The secondary endpoints were cumulative hazards of relapses, disability accumulation, and disability improvement events. We compared relapse rates with negative binomial models, and estimated cumulative hazards with conditional proportional hazards models. FINDINGS: Patients were treated between Aug 1, 1994, and June 30, 2016. The cohorts consisted of 189 patients given alemtuzumab, 2155 patients given interferon beta, 828 patients given fingolimod, and 1160 patients given natalizumab. Alemtuzumab was associated with a lower annualised relapse rate than interferon beta (0·19 [95% CI 0·14-0·23] vs 0·53 [0·46-0·61], p<0·0001) and fingolimod (0·15 [0·10-0·20] vs 0·34 [0·26-0·41], p<0·0001), and was associated with a similar annualised relapse rate as natalizumab (0·20 [0·14-0·26] vs 0·19 [0·15-0·23], p=0·78). For the disability outcome