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Objectives: Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany like other countries lacked adaptive population-based panels to monitor the spread of epidemic diseases. Methods: To fill a gap in population-based estimates needed for winter 2022/23 we resampled in the German SARS-CoV-2 cohort study MuSPAD in mid-2022, including characterization of systemic cellular and humoral immune responses by interferon-γ-release assay (IGRA) and CLIA/IVN assay. We were able to confirm categorization of our study population into four groups with differing protection levels against severe COVID-19 courses based on literature synthesis. Using these estimates, we assessed potential healthcare burden for winter 2022/23 in different scenarios with varying assumptions on transmissibility, pathogenicity, new variants, and vaccine booster campaigns in ordinary differential equation models. Results: We included 9921 participants from eight German regions. While 85% of individuals were located in one of the two highest protection categories, hospitalization estimates from scenario modeling were highly dependent on viral variant characteristics ranging from 30-300% compared to the 02/2021 peak. Our results were openly communicated and published to an epidemic panel network and a newly established modeling network. Conclusions: We demonstrate feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel to provide complex immune protection levels for inclusion in dynamic disease burden modeling scenarios.

Abstract Lyme borreliosis (LB) is caused by the transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. from ticks to humans. Climate affects tick abundance, and climate change is projected to promote shifts in abundance in Europe, potentially increasing human exposure. We analyzed serum samples collected between the years 2014–2019 from German National Cohort (NAKO) participants at four study sites (Augsburg, Berlin, Hanover, Münster) for immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies using an enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and line blot immunoassay as confirmatory test for positive and equivocal ELISA samples. We reported crude and weighted seropositivity proportions for local estimates. We used mixed model analysis to investigate associated factors, such as age, sex, migration background, or animal contacts. We determined the serostatus of 14,207 participants. The weighted seropositivity proportions were 3.4% (IgG) and 0.4% (IgM) in Augsburg, 4.1% (IgG) and 0.6% (IgM) in northern Berlin, 3.0% (IgG) and 0.9% (IgM) in Hanover, and 2.7% (IgG) and 0.6% (IgM) in Münster. We found higher odds for IgG seropositivity with advancing age (p

Abstract Background Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne infectious disease in the northern hemisphere. The diagnosis of LB is usually made by clinical symptoms and subsequently supported by serology. In Europe, a two-step testing consisting of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and an immunoblot is recommended. However, due to the low sensitivity of the currently available tests, antibody detection is sometimes inaccurate, especially in the early phase of infection, leading to underdiagnoses. Methods To improve upon Borrelia diagnostics, we developed a multiplex Borrelia immunoassay (Borrelia multiplex), which utilizes the new INTELLIFLEX platform, enabling the simultaneous dual detection of IgG and IgM antibodies, saving further time and reducing the biosample material requirement. In order to enable correct classification, the Borrelia multiplex contains eight antigens from the five human pathogenic Borrelia species known in Europe. Six antigens are known to mainly induce an IgG response and two antigens are predominant for an IgM response. Results To validate the assay, we compared the Borrelia multiplex to a commercial bead-based immunoassay resulting in an overall assay sensitivity of 93.7% (95% CI 84.8–97.5%) and a specificity of 96.5% (95%CI 93.5–98.1%). To confirm the calculated sensitivity and specificity, a comparison with a conventional 2-step diagnostics was performed. With this comparison, we obtained a sensitivity of 95.2% (95% CI 84.2–99.2%) and a specificity of 93.0% (95% CI 90.6–94.7%). Conclusion Borrelia multiplex is a highly reproducible cost- and time-effective assay that enables the profiling of antibodies against several individual antigens simultaneously.

Abstract Background Lyme borreliosis is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in Europe, and numbers might increase due to climate change. However, borreliosis is not notifiable in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. Hence, little is known about the current human seroprevalence in NRW. However, the proportion of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato-infected ticks has increased in a NRW nature reserve. The literature suggests increasing age and male sex as risk factors for seropositivity, whereas the influence of socioeconomic status is controversial. Thus, we aimed to determine regional seropositivity for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi s.l.) and its risk factors in the Rhineland Study population in Bonn, NRW, and to compare it with previous surveys to evaluate potential effects of climate change. Methods We assessed seropositivity in 2865 Rhineland Study participants by determining immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies for B. burgdorferi s.l. using a two-step algorithm combining enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests and line immunoblots. We calculated the odds of being classified as IgG or IgM positive as a function of age, sex, and educational level using binomial logistic regression models. We applied varying seropositivity classifications and weights considering age, sex and education to compensate for differences between the sample and regional population characteristics. Results IgG antibodies for B. burgdorferi s.l. were present in 2.4% and IgM antibodies in 0.6% of the participants (weighted: 2.2% [IgG], 0.6% [IgM]). The likelihood of IgG seropositivity increased by 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–5.2%) per 1 year increase in age. Men had 1.65 times the odds for IgG seropositivity as women (95% CI 1.01–2.73), and highly educated participants had 1.83 times the odds (95% CI 1.10–3.14) as participants with an intermediate level of education. We found no statistically significant link between age, sex, or education and IgM seropositivity. Our weighted and age-standardized IgG seroprevalence was comparable to the preceding serosurvey German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS) for NRW. Conclusions We confirmed that increasing age and male sex are associated with increased odds for IgG seropositivity and provide evidence for increased seropositivity in the highly educated group. B. burgdorferi s.l. seropositivity remained constant over the past decade in this regional German population. Graphical abstract

Regional fertility forecasts are important for long-term planning in a variety of fields that include future birth numbers in their forecast, such as school or kindergarten planning. They are one of the major components of regional population forecasts as well. Therefore, it is important to construct reliable forecasts that are based on sophisticated models that cover the high complexity of future regional fertility. We suggest a novel forecast model for forecasting regional age-specific fertility rates that covers long-term trends by time series models, demographic and regional correlations by principal component analysis, and future uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulation. The model is applied to all German NUTS-3 regions (districts/Kreise) simultaneously, where we forecast all regional age-specific fertility rates through the period of 2022–2045. The results from the simulations are presented via median predictions with 75% prediction intervals of the regional total fertility rates. The simulation shows strong regional heterogeneities in long-term fertility trends that are associated with the historical background of Germany, housing supply for families, opportunities for education, and the strength of labor markets, inter alia.

IntroductionFamily history of depression and childhood maltreatment are established risk factors for depression. However, how these factors are interrelated and jointly influence depression risk is not well understood. The present study investigated (i) if childhood maltreatment is associated with a family history of depression (ii) if family history and childhood maltreatment are associated with increased lifetime and current depression, and whether both factors interact beyond their main effects, and (iii) if family history affects lifetime and current depression via childhood maltreatment.MethodsAnalyses were based on a subgroup of the first 100,000 participants of the German National Cohort (NAKO), with complete information (58,703 participants, mean age = 51.2 years, 53% female). Parental family history of depression was assessed via self-report, childhood maltreatment with the Childhood Trauma Screener (CTS), lifetime depression with self-reported physician's diagnosis and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), and current depressive symptoms with the depression scale of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Generalized linear models were used to test main and interaction effects. Mediation was tested using causal mediation analyses.ResultsHigher frequencies of the childhood maltreatment measures were found in subjects reporting a positive family history of depression. Family history and childhood maltreatment were independently associated with increased depression. No statistical interactions of family history and childhood maltreatment were found for the lifetime depression measures. For current depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 sum score), an interaction was found, with stronger associations of childhood maltreatment and depression in subjects with a positive family history. Childhood maltreatment was estimated to mediate 7%–12% of the effect of family history on depression, with higher mediated proportions in subjects whose parents had a depression onset below 40 years. Abuse showed stronger associations with family history and depression, and higher mediated proportions of family history effects on depression than neglect.DiscussionThe present study confirms the association of childhood maltreatment and family history with depression in a large population-based cohort. While analyses provide little evidence for the joint effects of both risk factors on depression beyond their individual effects, results are consistent with family history affecting depression via childhood maltreatment to a small extent.

Data Quality is, in essence, understood as the degree to which the data of interest satisfies the requirements, is free of flaws, and is suited for the intended purpose. Data Quality is usually measured utilizing several criteria, which may differ in terms of assigned importance, depending on, e.g., the data at hand, stakeholders, or the intended use.

Lyme borreliosis is the leading tick-related illness in Europe, caused by Borrelia Burgdorferi s.l. Lower Saxony, Germany, including its capital, Hanover, has a higher proportion of infected ticks than central European countries, justifying a research focus on the potential human consequences. The current knowledge gap on human incident infections, particularly in Western Germany, demands serological insights, especially regarding a potentially changing climate-related tick abundance and activity. We determined the immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) serostatuses for 8009 German National Cohort (NAKO) participants from Hanover, examined in 2014–2018. We used an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) as the screening and a line immunoblot as confirmation for the Borrelia Burgdorferi s.l. antibodies. We weighted the seropositivity proportions to estimate general population seropositivity and estimated the force of infection (FOI). Using logistic regression, we investigated risk factors for seropositivity. Seropositivity was 3.0% (IgG) and 0.9% (IgM). The FOI varied with age, sharply increasing in participants aged ≥40 years. We confirmed advancing age and male sex as risk factors. We reported reduced odds for seropositivity with increasing body mass index and depressive symptomatology, respectively, pointing to an impact of lifestyle-related behaviors. The local proportion of seropositive individuals is comparable to previous estimates for northern Germany, indicating a steady seroprevalence.