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Background Kenya is 1 of 14 priority countries in Africa scaling up voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) for HIV prevention following the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. To inform VMMC target setting, we modeled the impact of circumcising specific client age groups across several Kenyan geographic areas. Methods The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool, Version 2 (DMPPT 2) was applied in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori counties. Initial modeling done in mid-2016 showed coverage estimates above 100% in age groups and geographic areas where demand for VMMC continued to be high. On the basis of information obtained from country policy makers and VMMC program implementers, we adjusted circumcision coverage for duplicate reporting, county-level population estimates, migration across county boundaries for VMMC services, and replacement of traditional circumcision with circumcisions in the VMMC program. To address residual inflated coverage following these adjustments we applied county-specific correction factors computed by triangulating model results with coverage estimates from population surveys. Results A program record review identified duplicate reporting in Homa Bay, Kisumu, and Siaya. Using county population estimates from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, we found that adjusting for migration and correcting for replacement of traditional circumcision with VMMC led to lower estimates of 2016 male circumcision coverage especially for Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Even after addressing these issues, overestimation of 2016 male circumcision coverage persisted, especially in Homa Bay. We estimated male circumcision coverage in 2016 by applying correction factors. Modeled estimates for 2016 circumcision coverage for the 10- to 14-year age group ranged from 50% in Homa Bay to approximately 90% in Kisumu. Results for the 15- to 19-year age group suggest almost complete coverage in Kisumu, Migori, and Siaya. Coverage for the 20- to 24-year age group ranged from about 80% in Siaya to about 90% in Homa Bay, coverage for those aged 25–29 years ranged from about 60% in Siaya to 80% in Migori, and coverage in those aged 30–34 years ranged from about 50% in Siaya to about 70% in Migori. Conclusions Our analysis points to solutions for some of the data issues encountered in Kenya. Kenya is the first country in which these data issues have been encountered because baseline circumcision rates were high. We anticipate that some of the modeling methods we developed for Kenya will be applicable in other countries.

Background: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) service delivery is complex and resource-intensive. In Kenya’s context there is still paucity of information on resource use vis-a -vis outputs as programs scale up. Knowledge of technical efficiency productivity and potential sources of constraints is desirable to improve decision-making. Objective: To evaluate technical efficiency and productivity of VMMC service delivery in Nyanza in 2011/2012 using data envelopment analysis. Design: Comparative process evaluation of facilities providing VMMC in Nyanza in 2011/2012 using output orientated data envelopment analysis. Results: Twenty one facilities were evaluated. Only 1 of 7 variables considered (total elapsed operation time) significantly improved from 32.8 minutes (SD 8.8) in 2011 to 30 minutes (SD 6.6) in 2012 (95%CI = 0.0350–5.2488; p = 0.047). Mean scale technical efficiency significantly improved from 91% (SD 19.8) in 2011 to 99% (SD 4.0) in 2012 particularly among outreach compared to fixed service delivery facilities (CI -31.47959–4.698508; p = 0.005). Increase in mean VRS technical efficiency from 84% (SD 25.3) in 2011 and 89% (SD 25.1) in 2012 was not statistically significant. Benchmark facilities were #119 and #125 in 2011 and #103 in 2012. Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) at fixed facilities declined by 2.5% but gained by 4.9% at outreach ones by 2012. Total factor productivity improved by 83% (p = 0.032) in 2012 largely due to progress in technological efficiency by 79% (p = 0.008). Conclusions: Significant improvement in scale technical efficiency among outreach facilities in 2012 was attributable to accelerated activities. However ongoing pure technical inefficiency requires concerted attention. Technological progress was the key driver of service productivity growth in Nyanza. Incorporating service-quality dimensions and using stepwise-multiple criteria in performance evaluation enhances comprehensiveness and validity. These findings highlight site-level resource use and sources of variations in VMMC service productivity which are important for program planning.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention has scaled up rapidly among young men in western Kenya since 2008. Whether the program has successfully reached uncircumcised men evenly across the region is largely unknown. Using data from two cluster randomized surveys from the 2008 and 2014 Kenyan Demographic Health Survey (KDHS), we mapped the continuous spatial distribution of circumcised men by age group across former Nyanza Province to identify geographic areas where local circumcision prevalence is lower than the overall, regional prevalence. The prevalence of self-reported circumcision among men 15 to 49 across six counties in former Nyanza Province increased from 45.6% (95% CI = 33.2–58.0%) in 2008 to 71.4% (95% CI = 67.4–75.0%) in 2014, with the greatest increase in men 15 to 24 years of age, from 40.4% (95% CI = 27.7–55.0%) in 2008 to 81.6% (95% CI = 77.2–85.0%) in 2014. Despite the dramatic scale-up of VMMC in western Kenya, circumcision coverage in parts of Kisumu, Siaya, and Homa Bay counties was lower than expected (P