Carlijn A. M. Roumans, Pauline A. Zellenrath, Ewout W. Steyerberg, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Michael Doukas, Katharina Biermann, Joyce Alderliesten, Gert van Ingen, Wouter B. Nagengast, Arend Karrenbeld, Frank ter Borg, Mariska Hage, Pieter C. J. ter Borg, Michael A. den Bakker, Alaa Alkhalaf, Frank C. P. Moll, Lieke Brouwer-Hol, Joop van Baarlen, Rutger Quispel, Arjan van Tilburg, Jordy P. W. Burger, Antonie J. P. van Tilburg, Ariadne H. A. G. Ooms, Thjon J. Tang, Mariëlle J. L. Romberg-Camps, Danny Goudkade, Marco J. Bruno, Dimitris Rizopoulos, Manon C. W. Spaander, Guided Treatment in Optimal Selected Cancer Patients (GUTS), Public Health, Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Pathology, and Epidemiology
Simple Summary Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Endoscopic surveillance plays an important role in the timely detection of neoplastic progression. However, the cost-effectiveness of current surveillance strategies is debatable. Previous studies have shown that male Barrett's patients have lower neoplastic progression risk than females. However, these studies do not provide a more practical translation of these sex disparities into different surveillance intervals. The current multicenter prospective cohort study aimed to evaluate sex differences in 868 BE patients; not only with respect to neoplastic progression risk, but also concerning the difference in time to detection of high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/EAC: time to neoplastic progression was estimated to be almost twice as low in males than in females. In contrast, the stage of neoplasia appeared to be higher in females. Our results can guide future discussions for sex-specific guidelines, supporting the implementation of neoplastic risk stratification per individual patient in BE surveillance. Recommendations in Barrett's esophagus (BE) guidelines are mainly based on male patients. We aimed to evaluate sex differences in BE patients in (1) probability of and (2) time to neoplastic progression, and (3) differences in the stage distribution of neoplasia. We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study including 868 BE patients. Cox regression modeling and accelerated failure time modeling were used to estimate the sex differences. Neoplastic progression was defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Among the 639 (74%) males and 229 females that were included (median follow-up 7.1 years), 61 (7.0%) developed HGD/EAC. Neoplastic progression risk was estimated to be twice as high among males (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.11-4.62) than females. The risk of HGD was found to be higher in males (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.33-10.6). Time to HGD/EAC (AR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.95) and HGD (AR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19-0.86) was shorter in males. Females had proportionally more EAC than HGD and tended to have higher stages of neoplasia at diagnosis. In conclusion, both the risk of and time to neoplastic progression were higher in males. However, females were proportionally more often diagnosed with (advanced) EAC. We should strive for improved neoplastic risk stratification per individual BE patient, incorporating sex disparities into new prediction models.