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In general, trains are referred to as environment-friendly transportation means when compared e.g. to cars, busses, or aircraft, being modern trains electrified systems. Unfortunately, the costs due to creation and maintenance of railway infrastructures, notably the overhead lines to power the trains, impose boundaries to their expansion potentials. In this respect, the advances in battery technologies are disclosing new opportunities, like serving partially electrified tracks. In particular, on board batteries can be used as backup energy where overhead lines are not available. In such scenarios, analysing battery requirements and evaluating possible solutions is of critical importance.This paper proposes a model-based systems engineering methodology for evaluating the feasibility of heterogeneous battery systems in the railway domain. The methodology leverages separation of concerns to reduce the complexity of the problem and abstracts the different railway system components by means of corresponding simulation models. The methodology is illustrated through a study performed at an industrial partner; in particular, the paper discusses how simulation models have been conceived, refined, validated, and integrated to analyse the properties of various battery configurations for several passenger trains operating on commercial lines in France. Interestingly, the results demonstrate that heterogeneous battery systems provide a suitable trade-off alternative when compared to homogeneous batteries.

Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in <1 year, n = 864), very aggressive (death in 1 to < 3 years, n = 1,390), moderately aggressive (death in 3 to < 5 years, n = 639), and less aggressive (lived 5+ years, n = 1,691). Using competing risks Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed heterogeneity of associations by tumor aggressiveness for all cases and among serous and endometrioid/clear cell tumors. Associations between parity (phet = 0.01), family history of ovarian cancer (phet = 0.02), body mass index (BMI; phet ≤ 0.04) and smoking (phet < 0.01) and ovarian cancer risk differed by aggressiveness. A first/single pregnancy, relative to nulliparity, was inversely associated with highly aggressive disease (HR: 0.72; 95% CI [0.58-0.88]), no association was observed for subsequent pregnancies (per pregnancy, 0.97 [0.92-1.02]). In contrast, first and subsequent pregnancies were similarly associated with less aggressive disease (0.87 for both). Family history of ovarian cancer was only associated with risk of less aggressive disease (1.94 [1.47-2.55]). High BMI (≥35 vs. 20 to < 25 kg/m2 , 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted.

Introduction/Background Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common gynaecological malignancy in Sweden. The disease has several prognostic factors. Still, the high amount of EC develops into more aggressive forms of cancer, even though being first considered to be non-aggressive. The LRIG proteins are a family of three integral surface proteins that have a similar domain organisation. The current study evaluated the role of LRIG proteins as prognostic biomarkers in EC. Methodology The cohort included 75 women who underwent a hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomydue to EC at the Department of Women's and Children's Health, Karolinska University Hospital Solna between 2007 and 2012. The expression of LRIG1, LRIG2, and LRIG3 in paraffin biopsies was analysed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) with applying specific polyclonal antibodies. Evaluation of immunostainings was performed by two senior pathologists without knowledge of the disease outcome. The percentage of positive cells was divided in two groups with median percentage as cut off to have two groups of equal size included in the statistical analysis. Then the groups were assessedin connection with different tumour characteristics and clinical outcomes of EC. Results The majority of women in the cohort had >50% LRIG1-, LRIG2-, and LRIG3-positive cells. Among 6047 person-months of follow-up a total, of 14 incident cases of relapsed EC were identified. A statistically significant association between high LRIG3 expression and superior overall survival was observed in the cohort (IRR=2.559, 95 CI=1.054–6.210, p=0.038). LRIG1 and LRIG2 expression did not significantly correlate with survival. Conclusion Our results support the hypothesis that LRIG3 expression may have a prognostic role in women with EC. The significance of LRIG1 and LRIG2 expression remains to be clarified., Supplement: 4Meeting Abstract: EP609

Background: Concurrent chemoradiotherapy is the mainstay treatment for NSCLC stage III disease, however, with a rather high probability of locoregional and metastatic recurrence further treatment optimization is warranted. Based on previous one-armed trials with dose escalated radiotherapy, showing feasibility, the Swedish Lung Cancer Study Group aimed to investigate whether dose escalation based on individual normal tissue constraints could improve outcome in this randomized phase II trial. Method: NSCLC patients with stage III disease, good performance status (0-1), adequate lung function (FEV1 > 1.0 L and CO diff. > 40%) received three cycles of cisplatin (75 mg/m2 day 1) and vinorelbine (25 mg/m2 day 1 and 8) every third week. The radiotherapy started concurrently with the second cycle, with either 2 Gy daily, 5 days a week, to a total dose of 68 Gy (standard arm A) or escalated therapy (B) based on constraints to the spinal cord, esophagus and lungs up to 84 Gy by adding an extra fraction of 2 Gy per week while keeping the total treatment time constant at seven weeks with the same dose to involved nodes and primary tumor. Result: A pre-planned safety analysis revealed excessive toxicity and decreased survival in the escalated arm, and the study was stopped. Thirty-six patients were included during 2011-2013 (56% male, 78% with adenocarcinoma, 64% with PS 0 and 53% with stage IIIB). The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 11 and 17 months in the dose escalated group compared to 28 and 45 months in the standard group. The 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 56%, 33% and 17% in the escalated arm and 72%, 61% and 34% in the standard arm. There were four toxicity-related deaths due to esophageal perforations (one in arm A and three in arm B) and three deaths due to pneumonitis (one in arm A and two in arm B). Conclusion: Dose-escalated concurrent chemoradiotherapy to 84 Gy to primary tumor and nodal disease is hazardous, wit, Supplement: SMeeting Abstract: MA05.07

CA125 is the best ovarian cancer early detection marker to date; however, sensitivity is limited and complementary markers are required to improve discrimination between ovarian cancer cases and non-cases. Anti-CA125 autoantibodies are observed in circulation. Our objective was to evaluate whether these antibodies (1) can serve as early detection markers, providing evidence of an immune response to a developing tumor, and (2) modify the discriminatory capacity of CA125 by either masking CA125 levels (resulting in lower discrimination) or acting synergistically to improve discrimination between cases and non-cases. We investigated these objectives using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC) including 250 cases diagnosed within 4 years of blood collection and up to four matched controls. Circulating CA125 antigen and antibody levels were quantified using an electrochemiluminescence assay. Adjusted areas under the curve (aAUCs) by 2-year lag-time intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression calibrated toward the absolute risk estimates from a pre-existing epidemiological risk model as an offset-variable. Anti-CA125 levels alone did not discriminate cases from controls. For cases diagnosed <2 years after blood collection, discrimination by CA125 antigen was suggestively higher with higher anti-CA125 levels (aAUC, highest antibody tertile: 0.84 [0.76-0.92]; lowest tertile: 0.76 [0.67-0.86]; phet = 0.06). We provide the first evidence of potentially synergistic discrimination effects of CA125 and anti-CA125 antibodies in ovarian early detection. If these findings are replicated, evaluating CA125 in the context of its antibody may improve ovarian cancer early detection.

Animal and experimental data suggest that anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) serves as a marker of ovarian reserve and inhibits the growth of ovarian tumors. However, few epidemiologic studies have examined the association between AMH and ovarian cancer risk. We conducted a nested case-control study of 302 ovarian cancer cases and 336 matched controls from nine cohorts. Prediagnostic blood samples of premenopausal women were assayed for AMH using a picoAMH enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. AMH concentration was not associated with overall ovarian cancer risk. The multivariable-adjusted OR (95% CI), comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of AMH, was 0.99 (0.59-1.67) (Ptrend : 0.91). The association did not differ by age at blood draw or oral contraceptive use (all Pheterogeneity : ≥0.26). There also was no evidence for heterogeneity of risk for tumors defined by histologic developmental pathway, stage, and grade, and by age at diagnosis and time between blood draw and diagnosis (all Pheterogeneity : ≥0.39). In conclusion, this analysis of mostly late premenopausal women from nine cohorts does not support the hypothesized inverse association between prediagnostic circulating levels of AMH and risk of ovarian cancer.

Endometrial cancer risk prediction models including lifestyle, anthropometric and reproductive factors have limited discrimination. Adding biomarker data to these models may improve predictive capacity; to our knowledge, this has not been investigated for endometrial cancer. Using a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we investigated the improvement in discrimination gained by adding serum biomarker concentrations to risk estimates derived from an existing risk prediction model based on epidemiologic factors. Serum concentrations of sex steroid hormones, metabolic markers, growth factors, adipokines and cytokines were evaluated in a step-wise backward selection process; biomarkers were retained at p < 0.157 indicating improvement in the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Improvement in discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic for all biomarkers alone, and change in C-statistic from addition of biomarkers to preexisting absolute risk estimates. We used internal validation with bootstrapping (1000-fold) to adjust for over-fitting. Adiponectin, estrone, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and triglycerides were selected into the model. After accounting for over-fitting, discrimination was improved by 2.0 percentage points when all evaluated biomarkers were included and 1.7 percentage points in the model including the selected biomarkers. Models including etiologic markers on independent pathways and genetic markers may further improve discrimination.

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Lakes play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle by burying C in sediments and emitting CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere. The strengths and control of these fundamentally different pathways are therefore of interest when assessing the continental C balance and its response to environmental change. In this study, based on new high-resolution estimates in combination with literature data, we show that annual emission: burial ratios are generally ten times higher in boreal compared to subarctic - arctic lakes. These results suggest major differences in lake C cycling between biomes, as lakes in warmer boreal regions emit more and store relatively less C than lakes in colder arctic regions. Such effects are of major importance for understanding climatic feedbacks on the continental C sink - source function at high latitudes. If predictions of global warming and northward expansion of the boreal biome are correct, it is likely that increasing C emissions from high latitude lakes will partly counteract the presumed increasing terrestrial C sink capacity at high latitudes., Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council [dnr. 621-385 2008-4390]

Background: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. Methods: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202 206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Conclusion: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

BACKGROUND: Prospective studies on insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk are inconclusive. Data suggest risk associations vary by tumour characteristics. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to evaluate IGF-I concentrations and EOC risk by tumour characteristics (n=565 cases). Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate associations. RESULTS: We observed no association between IGF-I and EOC overall or by tumour characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest prospective study to date was no association between IGF-I and EOC risk. Pre-diagnostic serum IGF-I concentrations may not influence EOC risk.