Search

This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the Scandinavian countries namely Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over the period from 1980Q1 to 2018Q4 and searches for evidence of bubble migration among those countries. First, we apply the GSADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) on quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios to test for exuberance and episodic bubbles. Subsequently, we examine bubble migration between these markets using the non-parametric model with time-varying coefficients (NPM-TVC) developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016). We find evidence of episodic bubbles in all the Scandinavian real estate markets for the period 1980 to 2018. Our results also indicate that housing bubbles are contagious between these markets during several periods, and the market connection is stronger for geographically neighboring countries.

Using quarterly housing price-to-rent ratios from 1970 to 2020, this paper investigated the presence of real estate bubbles at a national level in six selected European countries, namely France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We applied the generalized sup ADF test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to detect explosive behavior in house prices. Subsequently, we implemented the nonparametric model with time varying coefficients developed by Greenaway-McGrevy and Phillips (2016) to estimate bubbles contagion among these real estate markets. We found evidence of housing prices exuberance in all these markets. Results suggest that Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands experienced a bubble during the COVID-19 pandemic period, pushing prices higher, suggesting that speculators anticipated capital gains. In terms of bubbles migration, we find that bubbles migrate between these real estate markets.

This study investigates the relationship among CO2 emissions, human development index, and fossil energy usage. Essentially, the study was informed by the Sustainable Development Goal 7, which stipulates universal access to renewable and contemporary energy technologies. We employed the novel dynamic autoregressive-distributed lag (DARDL) simulations with a dataset spanning between1980 and 2020 from East Africa Community (EAC). The study revealed that human development, access to electricity, and trade have a strong correlation with carbon emissions in the long term, whereas fossil energy usage and economic growth have a negative connection with carbon emission. On the other hand, in the short run, human development and fossil energy usage have a positive correlation with carbon emission, while economic growth and foreign direct investment have a negative correlation with carbon emission. Thus, policies that are tailored to enhance the political environment in East Africa are crucial to ensuring realistic access to clean and modern electricity.

This study investigates the relationship among CO

This paper provides new empirical evidence on housing bubble timing, volatility spillover, and bubble contagion between Japan and its economic partners, namely, the United States, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. First, we apply a generalized sup ADF (GSADF) test to the quarterly price-to-rent ratio from 1970Q1 to 2018Q4 to detect explosive behaviors in housing prices. Second, we analyze the volatility spillover in housing prices between Japan and its economic partners using the multivariate time-varying DCC-GARCH model. Third, we assess bubble contagion by estimating a non-parametric model of bubble migration with time-varying coefficients. We document two historical bubble episodes from 1970 to 2018 in Japan’s housing market. Moreover, we find evidence of volatility spillover effects and bubble contagion between Japan’s real estate market and its most important economic partners during several periods. In this context of market integration, countries need to develop coordinated real estate policies to address the risk of global real estate bubbles.

WOS: 000509819500058, Early childhood education (ECE) has received rising interest from researchers in recent years. However, its effect on child development is still unclear in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to shed light on the contribution of ECE in children's development, using robust econometric estimations. We exploit data from the 2011 round of the Ghana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), to build a multidimensional early child development index that accounts for children's ability to read, count, recognize numbers, interact with peers and other people, follow rules and be independent as well as their health outcomes and physical skills. Then, we estimate the effect of ECE on child development using an endogenous treatment effect model to account for children unequal access to ECE. Results indicate that attending to ECE program increases children early development indicators. We also found that mother's education, father's involvement and living in urban area increase child development. These findings are robust to several changes in the specifications. Policy makers and ECE program planners in Ghana should consider investing in preschool education, especially for underprivileged children, in order to build a strong foundation for Ghana's human resource development.

We consider a decision maker who is responsible for issuing flood warnings for the population. The population is uncertain about the credibility of the warnings and adjusts its beliefs following false alerts or missed events. We show that low credibility leads the decision maker to issue warnings for lower probabilities of flooding. In practice, those probabilities are provided by hydrological forecasts. We therefore use our model to compare welfare under alternative real-world hydro- logical forecasts. We find that when forecasts include non-realistic extreme scenarios, the economy may remain stuck in a state characterized by many false alerts and poor credibility.

Over the last decade, the use of foodstuffs such as corn, wheat and soybean in biofuels production has been growing sharply in the United States, Canada and Europe. This growth has increased total demand for agricultural commodities and stimulated agricultural prices. However, corn, rice, wheat and soybean are the most important sources of calorific energy for West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) member states’ population, and WAEMU countries are highly dependent on the imports of these products. Consequently, rising prices can have an important impact on imports and severe consequences on food security in these developing countries. This paper aims to investigate: (i) the short-term and long-term relationships between the prices of corn, rice, wheat, soybean and oil and their volatilities, and (ii) the effects of these agricultural commodities prices shocks on the imports of each WAEMU member states. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and the Granger causality test are used in this investigation. The results show that imports of agricultural commodities in WAEMU countries are highly and significantly sensitive to price changes in international market. In short term as well as in long term, there is a significant relationship between the prices of these products. We find a positive relationship in general between prices volatilities, and negative effects of price volatility on imports. Thus, distortions in world agricultural markets threaten considerably food security in WAEMU countries, especially access to food for vulnerable and low-income populations. Policy makers must adopt viable strategies to increase agricultural production and limit their dependence on imports.