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Lyme disease is an emerging health threat in Canada due to the continued northward expansion of the main tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. It is of particular concern to populations living in expanding peri-urban areas where residential development and municipal climate change response impact neighbourhood structure and composition. The objective of this study was to estimate associations of socio-ecological characteristics with residential Lyme disease risk at the neighbourhood scale. We used Lyme disease case data for 2017–2020 reported for Ottawa, Ontario to determine where patients’ residential property, or elsewhere within their neighbourhood, was the suspected site of tick exposure. Cases meeting this exposure definition (n = 118) were aggregated and linked to neighbourhood boundaries. We calculated landscape characteristics from composited and classified August 2018 PlanetScope satellite imagery. Negative binomial generalized linear models guided by a priori hypothesized relationships explored the association between hypothesized interactions of landscape structure and the outcome. Increases in median household income, the number of forest patches, the proportion of forested area, forest edge density, and mean forest patch size were associated with higher residential Lyme disease incidence at the neighbourhood scale, while increases in forest shape complexity and average distance to forest edge were associated with reduced incidence (P

Lichen mapping is vital for caribou management plans and sustainable land conservation. Previous studies have used random forest, dense neural network, and convolutional neural network models for mapping lichen coverage. However, to date, it is not clear how these models rank in this task. In this study, these machine learning models were evaluated on their ability to predict lichen percent coverage in Sentinel-2 imagery in Québec and Labrador, Canada. The models were trained on 10-m resolution lichen coverage (%) maps created from 20 drone surveys collected in July 2019 and 2022. The dense neural network achieved a higher accuracy than the other two, with a reported mean absolute error of 5.2% and an R2 of 0.76. By comparison, the random forest model returned a mean absolute error of 5.5% (R2: 0.74) and the convolutional neural network had a mean absolute error of 5.3% (R2: 0.74). A regional lichen map was created using the trained dense neural network and a Sentinel-2 imagery mosaic. There was greater uncertainty on land covers that the model was not exposed to in training, such as mines and deep lakes. While the dense neural network requires more computational effort to train than a random forest model, the 5.9% performance gain in the test pixel comparison renders it the most suitable for lichen mapping. This study represents progress toward determining the appropriate methodology for generating accurate lichen maps from satellite imagery for caribou conservation and sustainable land management.

Thaw slumps are one of the most dynamic features in permafrost terrain. Improved temporal and spatial resolution monitoring of slump activity is required to better characterize their dynamics over the thaw season. We assess how a ground-based stationary camera array in a time-lapse configuration can be integrated with unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based surveys and Structure-from-Motion processing to monitor the activity of thaw slumps at high temporal and spatial resolutions. We successfully constructed point-clouds and digital surface models of the headwall area of a thaw slump at 6- to 13-day intervals over the summer, significantly improving the decadal to annual temporal resolution of previous studies. The successfully modeled headwall portion of the slump revealed that headwall retreat rates were significantly correlated with mean daily air temperature, thawing degree-days, and average net short-wave radiation and suggest a two-phased slump activity. The main challenges were related to strong JPEG image compression, drifting camera clocks, and highly dynamic nature of the feature. Combined with annual UAV-based surveys, the proposed methodology can address temporal gaps in our understanding of factors driving thaw slump activity. Such insight could help predict how slumps could modify their behavior under changing climate.

Differencing of digital surface models derived from structure from motion (SfM) processing of airborne imagery has been used to produce snow depth (SD) maps with between ∼ 2 and ∼ 15 cm horizontal resolution and accuracies of ±10 cm over relatively flat surfaces with little or no vegetation and over alpine regions. This study builds on these findings by testing two hypotheses across a broader range of conditions: (i) that the vertical accuracy of SfM processing of imagery acquired by commercial low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems can be adequately modelled using conventional photogrammetric theory and (ii) that SD change can be more accurately estimated by differencing snow-covered elevation surfaces rather than differencing a snow-covered and snow-free surface. A total of 71 UAV missions were flown over five sites, ranging from short grass to a regenerating forest, with ephemeral snowpacks. Point cloud geolocation performance agreed with photogrammetric theory that predicts uncertainty is proportional to UAV altitude and linearly related to horizontal uncertainty. The root-mean-square difference (RMSD) over the observation period, in comparison to the average of in situ measurements along ∼ 50 m transects, ranged from 1.58 to 10.56 cm for weekly SD and from 2.54 to 8.68 cm for weekly SD change. RMSD was not related to microtopography as quantified by the snow-free surface roughness. SD change uncertainty was unrelated to vegetation cover but was dominated by outliers corresponding to rapid in situ melt or onset; the median absolute difference of SD change ranged from 0.65 to 2.71 cm. These results indicate that the accuracy of UAV-based estimates of weekly snow depth change was, excepting conditions with deep fresh snow, substantially better than for snow depth and was comparable to in situ methods.

Bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires are two of the most prevalent disturbances that influence tree mortality, regeneration, and successional trajectories in western North American forests. Subboreal forests have experienced broad overlaps in these disturbances, and recent wildfires have burned through landscapes with substantial tree mortality from prior outbreaks. This study investigated how fuel conditions associated with mountain pine beetle outbreaks influence the probability of high burn severity (i.e. stand-replacing fire) across a range of fire weather conditions in subboreal forests of central interior British Columbia, Canada. We focused on three large fires that occurred in 2012, 2013, and 2014. We characterized outbreak severity, outbreak-influenced prefire vegetation, and subsequent burn severity using Landsat spectral vegetation indices, high-resolution imagery, and field observations. Substantial portions of the prefire landscape contained mixtures of live and dead vegetation created by variable beetle damage and vegetation response—spatial patterns that are related to, but distinct from, peak outbreak severity. We evaluated drivers—fuels, weather, and topography—of high-severity fire under ‘extreme,’ ‘moderate,’ and ‘benign’ fire weather conditions (i.e. burning conditions) using Boosted Regression Trees. While fire weather was a primary driver in most cases, prefire vegetation was an influential predictor variable across all burning conditions, and the probability of high-severity fire was highest when prefire vegetation was a mixture of tree mortality from bark beetles and live vegetation. Thus, while weather and drought are important drivers of wildfires in subboreal forests, bottom-up drivers of elevation and vegetation, including the fuel legacies of bark beetle outbreaks, are crucial factors influencing high-severity burning. The legacy of recent bark beetle outbreaks will continue for decades on these landscapes, affecting fuel structures, future wildfires, forest dynamics, and the broader social-ecological systems of the region.

In recent years, geothermal energy use from low-temperature sandstone reservoirs has sharply increased. Nonetheless, the injection of heat-depleted geothermal fluids has not been an easy task because of well/formation damage and operational/economic issues. Sønderborg geothermal plant is a case example of heat-mining from a low-temperature reservoir. It is in the northeast of Sønderborg towards Augustenborg Fjord. The present work takes into consideration the regional and local geology of the Sønderborg area, construction of the wells, field experience and water chemistry. The main issues of the geothermal plant appear to be related to the construction of the wells and reinjection of the heat-depleted brine. Our water chemistry analysis and PHREEQC simulations indicate that geothermal brine was saturated with respect to carbonate and barite minerals. The excess of Ca2+ and SO42− ions could have led to the formation and precipitation of carbonate and sulfate scales. Moreover, the increment of iron concentration over time could suggest the ingress of oxygen and pitting corrosion due to the presence of halide ions.

The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is established in several regions of Ontario, Canada, and continues to spread into new geographic areas across the province at a rapid rate. This poses a significant public health risk since I. scapularis transmits the Lyme disease-causing bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, and other pathogens of potential public health concern. The objective of this study was to develop species distribution models for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi to predict and compare the potential distributions of the tick vector and the Lyme disease pathogen as well as the ecological factors most important for species establishment. Ticks were collected via tick dragging at 120 sites across southern, central, and eastern Ontario between 2015 and 2018 and tested for tick-borne pathogens. A maximum entropy (Maxent) approach was used to model the potential distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi. Two independent datasets derived from tick dragging at 25 new sites in 2019 and ticks submitted by the public to local health units between 2015 and 2017 were used to validate the predictive accuracy of the models. The model for I. scapularis showed high suitability for blacklegged ticks in eastern Ontario and some regions along the shorelines of the Great Lakes, and moderate suitability near Algonquin Provincial Park and the Georgian Bay with good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.898; ticks from public: AUC = 0.727). The model for B. burgdorferi showed a similar predicted distribution but was more constrained to eastern Ontario, particularly between Ottawa and Kingston, and along Lake Ontario, with similarly good predictive accuracy (tick dragging 2019: AUC = 0.958; ticks from public: AUC = 0.863. The ecological variables most important for predicting the distributions of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi included elevation, distance to deciduous and coniferous forest, proportions of agricultural land, water, and infrastructure, mean summer/spring temperature, and cumulative annual degree days above 0°C. Our study presents a novel application of species distribution modelling for I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi in Ontario, Canada, and provides an up to date projection of their potential distributions for public health knowledge users.