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Introduction Maintaining independence is a primary goal of community health and care services for older people, but there is currently insufficient guidance about which services to implement. Therefore, we aim to synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of community-based complex interventions to sustain independence for older people, including the effect of frailty, and group interventions to identify the best configurations.Methods and analysis Systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA). We will include randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster RCTs of community-based complex interventions to sustain independence for older people living at home (mean age ≥65 years), compared with usual care or another complex intervention. We will search MEDLINE (1946 to September 2020), Embase (1947 to September 2020), CINAHL (1981 to September 2020), PsycINFO (1806 to September 2020), CENTRAL and clinical trial registries from inception to September 2020, without date/language restrictions, and scan included papers’ reference lists. Main outcomes were: living at home, activities of daily living (basic/instrumental), home-care services usage, hospitalisation, care home admission, costs and cost effectiveness. Additional outcomes were: health status, depression, loneliness, falls and mortality. Interventions will be coded, summarised and grouped. An NMA using a multivariate random-effects model for each outcome separately will determine the relative effects of different complex interventions. For each outcome, we will produce summary effect estimates for each pair of treatments in the network, with 95% CI, ranking plots and measures, and the borrowing of strength statistic. Inconsistency will be examined using a ‘design-by-treatment interaction’ model. We will assess risk of bias (Cochrane tool V.2) and certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation for NMA approach.Ethics and dissemination This research will use aggregated, anonymised, published data. Findings will be reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidance. They will be disseminated to policy-makers, commissioners and providers, and via conferences and scientific journals.PROSPERO registration number CRD42019162195.

In an Essay, Andrew Jackson and colleagues discuss challenges in the diagnosis and management of older people with dementia and delirium in acute hospitals.

Abstract Background Pain and frailty are associated, but this relationship is insufficiently understood. We aimed to test whether there is a unidirectional or bidirectional relationship between joint pain and frailty. Methods Data were from Investigating Musculoskeletal Health and Wellbeing, a UK-based cohort. Average joint pain severity over the previous month was assessed using an 11-point numerical rating scale (NRS). Frailty was classified as present/absent using the FRAIL questionnaire. Multivariable regression assessed the association between joint pain and frailty, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI class. Two-wave cross-lagged path modelling permitted simultaneous exploration of plausible causal pathways between pain intensity and frailty at baseline and 1-year. Transitions were assessed using t-tests. Results One thousand one hundred seventy-nine participants were studied, 53% female, with a median age of 73 (range 60 to 95) years. FRAIL classified 176 (15%) participants as frail at baseline. Mean (SD) baseline pain score was 5.2 (2.5). Pain NRS ≥ 4 was observed in 172 (99%) of frail participants. Pain severity was associated with frailty at baseline (aOR 1.72 (95%CI 1.56 to 1.92)). In cross-lagged path analysis, higher baseline pain predicted 1-year frailty [β = 0.25, (95%CI 0.14 to 0.36), p

Abstract Background In an ageing population, pain, frailty and disability frequently coexist across a wide range of musculoskeletal diagnoses, but their associations remain incompletely understood. The Investigating Musculoskeletal Health and Wellbeing (IMH&W) study aims to measure and characterise the development and progression of pain, frailty and disability, and to identify discrete subgroups and their associations. The survey will form a longitudinal context for nested research, permitting targeted recruitment of participants for qualitative, observational and interventional studies; helping to understand recruitment bias in clinical studies; and providing a source cohort for cohort randomised controlled trials. Methods IMH&W will comprise a prospective cohort of 10,000 adults recruited through primary and secondary care, and through non-clinical settings. Data collection will be at baseline, and then through annual follow-ups for 4 years. Questionnaires will address demographic characteristics, pain severity (0–10 Numerical Rating Scale), pain distribution (reported on a body Manikin), pain quality (McGill Pain Questionnaire), central aspects of pain (CAP-Knee), frailty and disability (based on Fried criteria and the FRAIL questionnaire), and fracture risk. Baseline characteristics, progression and associations of frailty, pain and disability will be determined. Discrete subgroups and trajectories will be sought by latent class analysis. Recruitment bias will be explored by comparing participants in nested studies with the eligible IMH&W population. Discussion IMH&W will elucidate associations and progression of pain, frailty and disability. It will enable identification of people at risk of poor musculoskeletal health and wellbeing outcomes who might be suitable for specific interventions, and facilitate generalisation and comparison of research outcomes between target populations. The study will benefit from a large sample size and will recruit from diverse regions across the UK. Purposive recruitment will enrich the cohort with people with MSK problems with high representation of elderly and unwell people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03696134 . Date of Registration: 04 October 2018.

Abstract Background From late February 2020, English care homes rapidly adapted their practices in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to accommodating new guidelines and policies, staff had to adjust to rapid reconfiguration of services external to the home that they would normally depend upon for support. This study examined the complex interdependencies of support as staff responded to COVID-19. The aim was to inform more effective responses to the ongoing pandemic, and to improve understanding of how to work with care home staff and organisations after the pandemic has passed. Methods Ten managers of registered care homes in the East Midlands of England were interviewed by videoconference or phone about their experiences of the crisis from a structured organisational perspective. Analysis used an adapted organisational framework analysis approach with a focus on social ties and interdependencies between organisations and individuals. Results Three key groups of interdependencies were identified: care processes and practice; resources; and governance. Care home staff had to deliver care in innovative ways, making high stakes decisions in circumstances defined by: fluid ties to organisations outside the care home; multiple, sometimes conflicting, sources of expertise and information; and a sense of deprioritisation by authorities. Organisational responses to the pandemic by central government resulted in resource constraints and additional work, and sometimes impaired the ability of staff and managers to make decisions. Local communities, including businesses, third-sector organisations and individuals, were key in helping care homes overcome challenges. Care homes, rather than competing, were found to work together to provide mutual support. Resilience in the system was a consequence of dedicated and resourceful staff using existing local networks, or forging new ones, to overcome barriers to care. Conclusions This study identified how interdependency between care home organisations, the surrounding community, and key statutory and non-statutory organisations beyond their locality, shaped decision making and care delivery during the pandemic. Recognising these interdependencies, and the expertise shown by care home managers and staff as they navigate them, is key to providing effective healthcare in care homes as the pandemic progresses, and as the sector recovers afterwards.

Abstract Background In the inpatient rehabilitation of older patients, estimating to what extent the patient may functionally recover (functional prognosis), is important to plan the rehabilitation programme and aid discharge planning. Comorbidity is very common in older patients. However, the role of comorbidity in making a functional prognosis is not clearly defined. The aim of this study was to investigate a modified and weighted Functional Comorbidity Index (w-FCI) in relation to functional recovery and compare its predictive performance with that of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and the original Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI). Methods The COOPERATION study (Comorbidity and Outcomes of Older Patients Evaluated in RehabilitATION) is a prospective observational cohort study. Data of patients that were admitted in an inpatient geriatric rehabilitation facility in the UK between January and September 2017, were collected. The outcome measures were: the Elderly Mobility Scale (EMS) and Barthel index (BI) at discharge, EMS gain/day and BI gain/day. Baseline comorbidity was assessed using the CCI, the FCI and the w-FCI. Correlations, receiver operating curves (ROC), and multiple linear regression analyses were performed. The models were adjusted for age, gender and EMS or BI on admission. Results In total, 98 patients (mean age 82 years; 37% male) were included. The areas under the ROC curves of the w-FCI (EMS at discharge: 0.72, EMS gain/day: 0.72, BI at discharge: 0.66 and BI gain/day: 0.60) were higher than for the CCI (0.50, 0.53, 0.49, 0.44 respectively) and FCI (0.65, 0.55, 0.60, 0.49 respectively). The w-FCI was independently associated with EMS at discharge (20.7% of variance explained (PVE), p 0.05). Conclusions The w-FCI was predictive of mobility & function at discharge and mobility gain per day, and outperformed the original FCI and the CCI. The w-FCI could be useful in assessing comorbidity in a personalised way and aid functional prognosis at the start of rehabilitation.

Abstract Background People with dementia progressively lose abilities and are prone to falling. Exercise- and activity-based interventions hold the prospect of increasing abilities, reducing falls, and slowing decline in cognition. Current falls prevention approaches are poorly suited to people with dementia, however, and are of uncertain effectiveness. We used multiple sources, and a co-production approach, to develop a new intervention, which we will evaluate in a feasibility randomised controlled trial (RCT), with embedded adherence, process and economic analyses. Methods We will recruit people with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia from memory assessment clinics, and a family member or carer. We will randomise participants between a therapy programme with high intensity supervision over 12 months, a therapy programme with moderate intensity supervision over 3 months, and brief falls assessment and advice as a control intervention. The therapy programmes will be delivered at home by mental health specialist therapists and therapy assistants. We will measure activities of daily living, falls and a battery of intermediate and distal health status outcomes, including activity, balance, cognition, mood and quality of life. The main aim is to test recruitment and retention, intervention delivery, data collection and other trial processes in advance of a planned definitive RCT. We will also study motivation and adherence, and conduct a process evaluation to help understand why results occurred using mixed methods, including a qualitative interview study and scales measuring psychological, motivation and communication variables. We will undertake an economic study, including modelling of future impact and cost to end-of-life, and a social return on investment analysis. Discussion In this study, we aim to better understand the practicalities of both intervention and research delivery, and to generate substantial new knowledge on motivation, adherence and the approach to economic analysis. This will enable us to refine a novel intervention to promote activity and safety after a diagnosis of dementia, which will be evaluated in a definitive randomised controlled trial. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02874300; ISRCTN 10550694.