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Since China implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in 2013, the aerosol emissions in East Asia have been greatly reduced, while emissions in South Asia have continued to increase. This has led to a dipole pattern of aerosol emissions between South Asia and East Asia. Here, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) responses to the dipole changes in aerosol emissions during 2013–17 are investigated using the atmosphere model of Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We show that decreases in East Asian emissions alone lead to a positive aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 1.59 (±0.97) W m−2 over central-eastern China (25°–40°N, 105°–122.5°E), along with a 0.09 (±0.07)°C warming in summer during 2013–17. The warming intensified the land–sea thermal contrast and increased the rainfall by 0.32 (±0.16) mm day−1. When considering both the emission reductions in East Asia and increases in South Asia, the ERF is increased to 3.39 (±0.89) W m−2, along with an enhanced warming of 0.20 (±0.08)°C over central-eastern China, while the rainfall insignificant decreased by 0.07 (±0.16) mm day−1. It is due to the westward shift of the strengthened western Pacific subtropical high, linked to the increase in black carbon in South Asia. Based on multiple EASM indices, the reductions in aerosol emissions from East Asia alone increased the EASM strength by almost 5%. Considering the effect of the westward shift of WPSH, the dipole changes in emissions together increased the EASM by 5%–15% during 2013–17, revealing an important role of South Asian aerosols in changing the East Asian climate.

The ocean surface temperature has warmed dramatically over most of the globe in recent decades, which shows the west warmed faster than the east (“La Niña–like” warming) in the equatorial Pacific. It differs from the simulated “El Niño–like” warming in existing studies that discussed the El Niño–induced teleconnection response to global warming. Some studies have indicated that El Niño teleconnections are sensitive to the ocean surface warming patterns, but the mechanisms are still elusive. Here, reanalysis data and numerical experiments were analyzed to investigate how winter El Niño atmospheric teleconnections respond to the historical ocean surface warming. We show that the inhibited effect of the El Niño on the North African winter climate through the suppressed Walker circulation over Atlantic–Africa–Indian Ocean sectors under the ocean surface warming matches the observed changes. Also, the model reproduces the observed weakening of the El Niño–induced Pacific–North American wave and its suppressed downstream propagation in the ocean surface warming scenario because of the reduction in contributions of the vortex stretching to the El Niño–induced wave sources in the subtropical jet streams. Our findings demonstrate the important role of ocean surface warming patterns in the projections of the El Niño–induced atmospheric teleconnection.

Soil moisture is a crucial component of the water cycle and plays an important role in regional weather and climate. However, owing to the lack of In Situ observations, an accurate understanding of the spatiotemporal variations of soil moisture (SM) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is still lacking. In this study, we used three gridded SM products to characterize the spatiotemporal features of SM on the TP during the warm season (May to August). We analyzed the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) datasets and used station observation data and triple collocation to quantify product accuracy and consistency. Results of the evaluation based on observation data show that both ERA5 and GLDAS overestimate SM, while the accuracy of SMAP is high. In terms of capturing the temporal variations of SM measured at stations, the performance of ERA5 and that of SMAP are superior to that of GLDAS. According to the evaluation based on triple collocation, SMAP exhibits the smallest random error over the TP and the highest temporal correlation with the unknown true SM in eastern TP. For SMAP, SM variability is the largest in the southern TP. For ERA5 and GLDAS, variability in the western TP is substantially larger than that for SMAP. Low-frequency (30–90 days) variations are the largest contributor to TP SM intraseasonal variability. Relative to SMAP, the contribution of high-frequency variations is low in ERA5 and GLDAS. Land-atmosphere coupling is stronger (weaker) in the western (southeastern) TP, which is relatively dry (wet). Our evaluation of SM product performance over the TP may facilitate the use of these products for disaster monitoring and climate and hydrological studies.

Datasets and plotting code for the paper.

The sensitivity of hourly precipitation to cumulus parameterization and radiation schemes is explored by using the tropical-belt configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The domain covers the entire tropical region from 45°S to 45°N with a grid spacing of about 45 km. A series of 5-yr simulations with four cumulus parameterization schemes [new Tiedtke (NT), Kain–Fritsch (KF), new SAS (NS), and Tiedtke (TK)] and two radiation schemes (RRTMG and CAM) are carried out. We focus on the frequencies of hourly precipitation above three thresholds (0.02 mm h−1 = light drizzle rate; 0.2 mm h−1 = moderate rate; and 2 mm h−1 = heavy rate) between the observed CMORPH products and simulations. The sensitivity is higher for precipitation frequency than amount, and frequency is dominated by the cumulus parameterization. Frequencies above the moderate rate are well reproduced, whereas frequencies above the other two rates present large deviations. No combination of physical schemes is found to perform best in reproducing the frequencies above all thresholds. Simulations using the NT and NS schemes show higher precipitation frequencies above the light drizzle rate and lower precipitation frequencies above the heavy rate than those simulations using the KF and TK schemes. Precipitation frequency is higher when reproduced by experiments using the RRTMG scheme than those using the CAM scheme, except for frequencies above the light rate over oceans. The overestimation of frequency is mainly caused by too-frequent convective rainfall. The results imply that the triggering based on the vertical velocity may increase the occurrence of a rain event and that CAPE-based closure may increase the heavy precipitation frequency in the cumulus parameterization.

Terrestrial water budget (TWB) data over large domains are of high interest for various hydrological applications. Spatiotemporally continuous and physically consistent estimations of TWB rely on land surface models (LSMs). As an augmentation of the operational North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS‑2) four-LSM ensemble, this study presents a 48-member perturbed-physics ensemble configured from the Noah LSM with multi-physics options (Noah‑MP). The 48 Noah‑MP physics configurations are selected to give a representative cross-section of commonly used LSMs for parameterizing runoff, atmospheric surface layer turbulence, soil moisture limitation on photosynthesis, and stomatal conductance. The ensemble simulated the 1980–2015 monthly TWB over the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a 1/8° spatial resolution. Simulation outputs include total evapotranspiration and its constituents (canopy evaporation, soil evaporation, and transpiration), runoff (the surface and subsurface components), as well as terrestrial water storage (snow water equivalent, four-layer soil water content from the surface down to 2 m, and the groundwater storage anomaly). This dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7109816 (Zheng et al., 2022). Evaluations carried out in this study and previous investigations show that the ensemble performs well in reproducing the observed terrestrial water storage, snow water equivalent, soil moisture, and runoff. Noah-MP complements the NLDAS models well, and adding Noah-MP consistently improves the NLDAS estimations of the above variables in most areas of CONUS. Besides, the perturbed-physics ensemble facilities the identification of model deficiencies. The parameterizations of shallow snow, lakes, and near-surface atmospheric turbulence should be improved in future model versions.

This study investigated the relationship between the pre-summer soil moisture (SM) over the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) and the summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLR-YRB) under different SST backgrounds. When spring soil over the ICP was dry (wet), summer precipitation in most parts of the MLR-YRB was significantly higher (lower) under normal SST backgrounds (in the inner-quartile years). However, the SM anomalies produced a limited influence on summer precipitation under strong SST conditions (in the outer-quartile years). Further analysis indicates that in the inner-quartile years, the thermal heating anomalies induced by abnormal SM evidently increased (decreased) the geopotential heights above the western tropical Pacific, and enhanced (weakened) the low-level anticyclonic circulation, thereby increasing (decreasing) the warm and moist southerly flow from the ICP and western Pacific regions to the MLR-YRB, which was conducive to more (less) precipitation in the MLR-YRB. In the outer-quartile years, thermal anomalies of the ICP had very weak effects on both the wind fields above the western Pacific and the water vapor flux to the MLR-YRB, thereby leading to a limited increase (decrease) in summer precipitation. The different responses of the local and surrounding atmospheric circulations to pre-summer SM anomalies over the ICP against different SST backgrounds produced distinct impacts on the distribution of summer precipitation in the MLR-YRB. The dry (wet) anomalies of spring SM in the ICP could also increase (decrease) the zonal thermal contrast between the ICP and the South China Sea (SCS) and impact the SCS summer monsoon differently in the inner-quartile and outer-quartile years. Based on numerical experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), this work further confirmed the observational results and explored the physical mechanism by which the ICP spring soil moisture affects the MLR-YRB summer precipitation under various SST backgrounds. The simulation results show that a dry (wet) ICP spring soil significantly increased (decreased) the MLR-YRB rainfall in the following summer. This negative correlation was stronger in the inner-quartile years. The atmospheric response to changes in the surface thermal conditions was more significant in the inner-quartile years. This surface heating anomaly over the ICP led to anomalous southwest wind over the SCS, which could enhance the Asian summer monsoon and increase summer precipitation in the MLR-YRB.

Previous studies detected significant negative correlations between the nonuniform land surface warming and the decadal weakened activities of the summer extratropical cyclones (ECs) over East Asia and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) after the early 1990s. Here such relationships are further examined and the possible mechanisms are explored via numerical sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model (RegCM4.5). The positive/negative sensible heat flux (SH) anomalies were added as a forcing to a key region near 50°N of East Asia in RegCM4.5 to simulate the observed ground surface temperature (GST) anomalies. The model results suggest that the nonuniform land surface warming over the Lake Baikal area (50°–60°N, 90°–120°E) can indeed cause the weakening of the extratropical cyclogenesis and affect the decadal weakening of the EASM. Warm (cold) GST forcing over the key GST region can lead to decreasing (increasing) atmospheric baroclinicity and related energy conversion of the EC activity over the key EC region (40°–50°N, 90°–120°E), resulting in an evidently weakening (enhancing) of the ECs over East Asia. Meanwhile, precipitation shows a dipole pattern with significantly suppressed (enhanced) precipitation in northern and northeastern China, and slightly enhanced (suppressed) rainfall south of 40°N of East Asia, mainly over the East China Sea. Lake Baikal and its adjacent areas are occupied by a strong anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation while the southeast coastal areas of China have a relatively weak cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation accompanied with an anomalous northeasterly (southwesterly) wind to the southeast of the anticyclonic circulation, which is opposite to (coincident with) the atmospheric circulation anomalies that are associated with the second mode of the EASM.

To evaluate and clarify the daily precipitation characteristics (i.e. amount, frequency and intensity) of the regional climate models (RCMs) in China, long-term simulations were carried out using RegCM4.5 and Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), which were nested within the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)’s 20th century reanalysis (ERA-20C) between 1901 and 2010. The 2 RCMs were initially run at a resolution of 50 km. Analyses mainly compared the model-simulated climatic means and interannual variations of precipitation characteristics with those of dense and high-quality station observations (STN) from 1961-2010. Both models satisfactorily reproduced the seasonal mean precipitation amount, but they overestimated its frequency and underestimated its intensity. Extreme rainfall frequency was also underestimated by both RCMs. In winter (DJF), the interannual variabilities in dry days, light precipitation and moderate precipitation were well represented by both models. However, they poorly reproduced the counterparts of extreme precipitation in winter. In summer (JJA), the 2 RCMs performed well in simulating the interannual variability of extreme precipitation. Comparably, RegCM outperformed WRF in reproducing the spatial patterns of precipitation amount, interannual variations in extreme precipitation and rain events. By contrast, WRF better represented precipitation frequency in different sub-regions overall. Moreover, when the horizontal resolution of RegCM was increased from 50 to 25 km, there was a slight improvement in the representation of precipitation amount and intensity. Our results show that RCMs perform well in reproducing actual climatic means and interannual variations of daily precipitation characteristics in China, and that high-resolution RCM simulations can produce improved results for precipitation amount and intensity.

Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) atmospheric forecasts and hydrological forecasts have considerable socioeconomic value. This study conducts a multimodel comparison of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) prediction skill using three models (ECMWF, NCEP and CMA) selected from the S2S project database to understand their performance in capturing TPSC variability during wintertime. S2S models can skillfully forecast TPSC within a lead time of 2 weeks but show limited skill beyond 3 weeks. Compared with the observational snow cover analysis, all three models tend to overestimate the area of TPSC. Another remarkable issue regarding the TPSC forecast is the increasing TPSC with forecast lead time, which further increases the systematic positive biases of TPSC in the S2S models at longer forecast lead times. All three S2S models consistently exaggerate the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. The exaggeration of precipitation is prominent and always exists throughout the model integration. Systematic bias of TPSC therefore occurs and accumulates with the model integration time. Such systematic biases of TPSC influence the forecasted surface air temperature in the S2S models. The surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau becomes colder with increasing forecast lead time in the S2S models. Numerical experiments further confirm the causality.

Soil moisture is a key variable of the land surface and its variations are an important issue in climate studies. In this study, we employed the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for 20 ensemble member simulations of the 50-year period from 1965 to 2014 and used canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and multiple regression to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture predictability. The effects of soil moisture persistence and sea surface temperature (SST) as an external forcing on its predictability were analyzed. Results show that the soil moisture predictability due to its persistence is 1–2 months and considering SST as an external forcing can significantly increase its predictability. Regions that exhibit a significant increase in predictability are mainly tropical regions, North America and Western Asia during winter and spring. In tropical regions, SST increases the predictability of soil moisture by influencing the local surface temperature and precipitation. In other regions, the effects of SST on wind speed, cloud cover, and surface evaporation also contribute significantly to the increase in soil moisture predictability. The results were validated through the analysis based on soil moisture data from land data assimilation system and observed precipitation.

Study region Xijiang River, South China. Study focus This paper discusses the application of WRF-Hydro, a distributed hydrological model, to a complicated watershed. The model performance on simulating streamflow, soil moisture, soil temperature and evapotranspiration is evaluated. Changes and characteristics of streamflow and related variables simulated by the model are analyzed. New hydrological insights for the region In this study, thirteen sensitive parameters used in this model are tested in large and small watersheds of the basin. It is found that large basins are more sensitive to base flow parameters than small basins. The WRF default soil type dataset is replaced by the Beijing Normal University (BNU) soil type dataset that is more accurate. The model can simulate temporal changes of streamflow as well as temporary variabilities of hydrological variables. The model can be applied in small and large watersheds. The trend of streamflow in the basin is spatially uneven with an increasing trend in the upper part and a decreasing trend in the lower part. The changes in streamflow are partly related to precipitation and evapotranspiration trends. The trends of 30-day maximum/minimum streamflow are not significant, but the reversals demonstrate significant changes during 1980–2018. This study is expected to serve as a reference for the application of the model in this basin and model calibration over different sizes of study area.

International audience; The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is one of the world's strongest monsoon systems that brings about eighty percent of the annual rainfall to the Indian subcontinent and impacts the livelihood of more than a quarter of the world's population. Meanwhile, Asia is the world's second largest dust source-with major deserts in the Middle East, Central and East Asia. The interactions between the Asian dust and the ISM have received increasing attention in recent decades. Dust particles can modulate the circulation and precipitation of the ISM through absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation when suspending in the atmosphere and when deposited in snow and ice at surface and by acting as nuclei of liquid and ice clouds. In turn, the ISM can affect dust emissions, transport, and deposition through atmospheric circulation and wet scavenging. This review provides a) an overview of several physical mechanisms behind the interactions between the ISM rainfall and the Asian dust particularly the Middle East dust, b) a new hypothesis to explain the observed positive correlation between the Middle East dust and the ISM rainfall, and c) a summary of current progress and challenges in dust simulation in climate models. Finally, we propose future research directions aimed at improving dust-monsoon simulations in terms of dust long-term variability, absorbing property, and anthropogenic contributions.

We develop a novel framework for rigorously evaluating land surface models (LSMs) against observations by recognizing the asymmetry between verification‐ and falsification‐oriented approaches. The former approach cannot completely verify LSMs even though it exhausts every case of consistency between the model predictions and observations, whereas the latter only requires a single case of inconsistency to reveal that there must be something wrong. We argue that it is such an inconsistency that stimulates further development of the models and enhancement of the observations. We therefore propose a falsification‐oriented signature‐based evaluation framework to identify cases of inconsistency between model predictions and observations by extracting signatures based on a set of key assumptions. We apply this framework to evaluate an ensemble of simulations from the Noah‐MP LSM against observations over the continental United States under the three assumptions of water mass conservation, no lateral water flow, and a sufficiently long period of time. Regions showing inconsistencies between the Noah‐MP ensemble simulations and the observations are located in the western mountainous areas, the Yellowstone river basin, the lower Floridan aquifer, the Niobrara river basin at the north tip of the Ogallala aquifer, and the basins downstream of the Balcones fault zones in Texas. These regions coincide with the sites where both advances in theoretical modeling and new observational data (e.g., from the Critical Zone Observatories) have emerged.

Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

North China is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. To its west, north, and northwest, the world's largest afforestation project has been going on for decades. At the same time, North China has been suffering from air pollution because of its large fossil fuel consumption. Here we show that the changes in land cover and aerosol concentration are coupled with the variations of land surface temperature, cloud cover, and surface solar radiation during the summer 2000–2013. Model experiments show that the interannual variation of aerosol concentration in North China is mainly a result of the varying atmospheric circulation. The increasing vegetation cover due to afforestation has enhanced surface evapotranspiration (ET) and cooled the local surface, and precipitation is observed to be increasing with ET. The model with prescribed increasing vegetation cover can simulate the increasing ET but cannot reproduce the increasing precipitation. Although this may be caused by model biases, the lack of aerosol processes in the model could also be a potential cause.

The seasonal responses of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to dust aerosols in local (the Thar Desert) and remote (the Middle East and western China) regions are studied using the WRF Model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Ensemble experiments are designed by perturbing model physical and chemical schemes to examine the uncertainties of model parameterizations. Model results show that the dust-induced increase in ISM total rainfall can be attributed to the remote dust in the Middle East, while the contributions from local and remote dust are very limited. Convective rainfall shows a spatially more homogeneous increase than stratiform rainfall, whose responses follow the topography. The magnitude of dust-induced increase in rainfall is comparable to that caused by anthropogenic aerosols. The Middle East dust aerosols tend to enhance the southwesterly monsoon flow, which can transport more water vapor to southern and northern India, while the anthropogenic aerosols tend to enhance the southeasterly monsoon flow, resulting in more water vapor and rainfall over northern India. Both dust and anthropogenic aerosol-induced rainfall responses can be attributed to their heating effect in the mid-to-upper troposphere, which enhances monsoon circulations. The heating effect of dust over the Iranian Plateau seems to play a bigger role than that over the Tibetan Plateau, while the heating of anthropogenic aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau is more important. Moreover, dust aerosols can decrease rainfall over the Arabian Sea through their indirect effect. This study addresses the relative roles of dust and anthropogenic aerosols in altering the ISM rainfall and provides insights into aerosol–ISM interactions.

Since winter 2011, a record-breaking drought has occurred in California. Studies found that the drought is mainly caused by a persistent high-pressure system off the U.S. West Coast, which is linked to Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The water cycles associated with the droughts and floods are still not clearly understood. Here we show that the atmospheric circulation off the West Coast not only controls the atmospheric convergence and formation of precipitation but also largely determines surface wind speed, which further affects the evaporation over the eastern North Pacific, the major evaporative moisture source for California precipitation. Because of this mechanism, the ocean evaporation over the eastern North Pacific has been reduced during the recent drought. However, the ocean evaporation anomalies have little direct influence on California precipitation, especially during dry years, mainly because of their weak amplitudes. The California droughts cannot be readily attributed to the reduced ocean evaporation. The association between increased Pacific evaporation and floods over California is somewhat stronger.

The responses of atmospheric variability to Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) at seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales have been extensively investigated. However, the atmospheric response to faster subseasonal variability of TPSC has been largely ignored. Here, we show that the subseasonal variability of TPSC, as revealed by daily data, is closely related to the subsequent East Asian atmospheric circulation at medium-range time scales (approximately 3–8 days later) during wintertime. TPSC acts as an elevated cooling source in the middle troposphere during wintertime and rapidly modulates the land surface thermal conditions over the TP. When TPSC is high, the upper-level geopotential height is lower, and the East Asia upper-level westerly jet stream is stronger. This finding improves our understanding of the influence of TPSC at multiple time scales. Furthermore, our work highlights the need to understand how atmospheric variability is rapidly modulated by fast snow cover changes., The atmospheric response to subseasonal variability of Tibetan Plateau snow cover has been largely ignored. Here the authors show that the fast subseasonal variability of Tibetan Plateau snow cover is closely related to the subsequent East Asian atmospheric circulation at medium-range time scales.