Search

Three deployment paths for electrified vehicles were analysed with the agent based vehicle market model VECTOR21 within the eMAP project: Business as Usual (BaU) as a reference up to 2030, Technology Driven (TeD) with higher efficiencies of electrified vehicles and Policy Driven (PoD and PoD-EU) with a stricter EU-wide CO2 regulation for passenger cars respectively and a more pronounced promotion of electrified vehicles, the latter with individual measures per country. VECTOR21 is simulating the competition between conventional and alternative powertrains for the new vehicle market, taking into account customer needs, automotive innovations and policy settings. 900 types of customers are modelled using relevant costs of ownership as a basis for their purchase decision, taking into account the political framework for CO2 emission targets. Scenario results give the number of new vehicles sold per segment, powertrain, year and market. Vehicle stock in the individual markets is modelled including energy consumption and well-to-wheel CO2 emission reductions in the stock over time. Within eMAP, an extended version of VECTOR21 was developed to cover Finland, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland in addition to Germany, now representing three quarters of the EU28 new passenger car market and thus enabling statements on EU28 as a whole. In the EU28 BaU scenario in 2030, computations result in 9% externally chargeable electric cars in stock. In combination with an increasing efficiency of conventional powertrains, the overall well-to-wheel CO2 emission reduction equals 29% compared to 2010. In the TeD scenario, the take-up of electric vehicles is accelerated already around 2020, resulting in an earlier market entry and 13% electric cars with a charging device in stock in 2030. The PoD scenario in turn suggests a consistent market growth in the share of electric drives as more and more stringent emission regulations come into effect, and a share of 11% externally chargeable electric cars in stock is seen by 2030. All scenario results showed that CO2 emission limits (EC 443/2009) for passenger cars are an important steering measure to oblige manufacturers to supply vehicle markets with cleaner vehicle technologies.

The European Commission has proposed an EU-level climate and energy target for the year 2030 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 40% compared to 1990 levels. The overall target is shared between a 43% reduction by sectors covered in the EU emission trading system (EU ETS) and a 30% reduction by non-ETS sectors (including transport) compared to 2005 levels. The latter target will be defined separately for each Member State. For Finland, an emissions reduction target up to 36% has been projected. This study examined energy efficiency measures of the transport sector in terms of transport relat-ed feasibility (changes in transport volumes, modal shares), economic feasibility (investment and exter-nal costs) and GHG reduction potential. The feasibility factors constitute the preconditions for transport emission reduction potential in Finland and consequently also for reaching the EU-level target. Second-ly, the study assessed the impacts of the measures on transport safety and public health. Finally, the roles and responsibilities of municipalities and the state in implementation and financing of the energy efficiency measures were analysed. Energy efficiency measures, identified in this context, include six categories of measures: (1) pro-motion of public transport in urban areas, (2) promotion of public transport over long distances, (3) pro-motion of walking and cycling, (4) measures related to the urban form development, (5) promotion of alternative propulsion for road transport and (6) promotion of low-emission passenger cars. The results of the study show that public transport, walking and cycling measures integrated in ur-ban transport plans of large and medium-sized cities in Finland hold approximately a 30% CO2 emission reduction potential between 2014 and 2030. This would indicate GHG emission reduction of approx. 0.6 million tons. The assessment covers both the impacts of modal shift and technological development of vehicles and fuels. Measures promoting public transport, walking and cycling are however not particularly cost-effective, if considered exclusively from the climate policy perspective. In fact, emission reductions of these measures are rather achieved as a positive by-product of essential transport system development (e.g. rail line or bicycle lane infrastructure investments). Based on the study, promotion of public transport would seem to reduce traffic accidents in urban areas, but an increase in walking and cycling to increase them. The safety of walking and cycling is strongly dependent on the types of routes the new transport volumes are directed to and the intensity of the growth. Public health benefits of walking and cycling are high and affect therefore significantly the economic efficiency of the planned measures and the costs of CO2 emission reductions. Long-distance public transport between the largest cities in Finland is currently undergoing signifi-cant changes both in pricing and supply as a result of changes in the legislation at national and EU-level. New operating models and services in public transport supply have emerged, and the development con-tinues. For the first time in decades the use of public transport is more affordable than the use of a pas-senger car. Between the major urban areas there is potential with modal and market shifts for the benefit of public transport. Assuming that about 1.5% of long-distance trips made by private car would shift to public transport, 0.5 million tons of GHG emissions could be reduced between 2014 and 2030. Also this estimate includes the technology development dimension. Urbanisation and population growth in growing urban regions reduce the average mobility need of the population in the future. Based on the zonal approach analysis, reductions in the average car-kilometres can be reached, if the new housing development will adhere to zones where daily trips can be made on foot, by bike or by public transport. Through the measures related to the urban form develop-ment, it is possible to reduce the amount of daily passenger-kilometres by approximately 6%, the impact of which is around 3 - 4% (ca. 0.2 million tons) on CO2 emissions of domestic passenger transport. Infill development is one of the most powerful measures related to urban form. It can affect both new housing locations and creation of conditions for improved public transport services. Economic in-struments (e.g. tax deductions on commuting and road pricing) can significantly affect the location decisions of residents and companies as well as their mobility behaviour. It is essential that urban form supports transport measures in reducing emissions by enabling sustainable mobility choices and services. On the basis of economic modelling, domestically produced biofuels are economically the most favourable option of the future alternative propulsion in road transport. Biofuels do not limit economic growth, their emission reduction potential is large and the economic value of emission reduction covers the incurred costs of subsidies to biofuel product development, production and distribution chain. The maximal CO2 reduction of biofuels is estimated up to more than 5 million tons (2015 to 2030), which makes them more cost-effective (if considered exclusively from the climate policy perspective) than measures promoting public transport, walking and cycling. CO2 limit values for new cars set by the EU legislation and national CO2-based vehicle taxes have also been cost-effective measures. Because of them, fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish car fleet have decreased since 2008. Planning and preparation of energy efficiency measures is often agreed between the state and mu-nicipalities e.g. through legislation, but challenges have been identified in their implementation. Exam-ples of these are national-level strategies, implementation of which requires shared funding. In case the other party lacks funding, or funding is delayed, the projects will be postponed or not realised at all. Also deficiencies in instructions to municipalities on the implementation of energy efficiency measures (e.g. directive on the procurement of clean vehicles) can slow down or even prevent the realisation of the pro-jects. The projected EU non-ETS sectors emissions reduction target (-36% by 2030) would mean a re-duction of CO2 emissions of transport by 4.6 million tonnes from the 2005 level in Finland. Based on the results above, measures promoting public transport, walking, cycling and urban form development could possibly cover approx. 28% (1.3 million tonnes, 2014-2030) of the total reduction target. The contribution is clearly less than the contribution of road traffic vehicle fleet and fuel technology measures (approx. 5 million tonnes reduction, 2014-2030), but its value should not be underestimated because of other benefits to be achieved. These include positive impacts on congestion, air quality, road safety and also to a significant extent on public health. Technology measures contribute to, through new fleet and fuel alternatives, the effectiveness of other energy efficiency measures, and consequently the different types of measures complement each other in achieving the goals of sustainable urban mobility.

The insights of the assessment of current EV recharging infrastructure and future development plans clearly show that the charging infrastructure deployments throughout the eMAP partner countries Finland, Germany and Poland currently are in the early stages. Regarding the scale of deployment, plug-in charging is the most important charging technology in contrast to wireless charging and battery swapping as further recharging solutions. Compared to the today's number of public charging points in Finland 5.6 %, in Germany 3.2 %, and in Poland 0.07 % of the minimum charging infrastructure requirements are reached. However, according to the approved directive “on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure” enacted in the end of 2014, minimum requires public accessible recharging points depending on the number of electric vehicles estimated to be registered by the end of 2020. Minimum required number of recharging points should be equivalent to one recharging point per ten cars. Common European standard connector is Type 2 for AC-charging and Combo 2 for DC-charging. In order to have appropriate number of publically accessible recharging points in urban/suburban and other densely populated areas available by the end of 2020, member states are forced to develop national policy frameworks until the end of 2016 and to report on its implementation until the end of 2019. Therefore, considerable progress in terms the market development of recharging points, the use of common technical specifications and the setup of appropriate user information is expected by early 2017. Up to now, the Partner Countries have not announced national policies yet. The future fuel and energy mix of the transport sector is likely to remain dependent on oil throughout the eMAP partner countries. All countries focus on the use of biofuels as most efficient way to fulfill renewable targets. In addition, all countries plan the expansion of renewable energy sources depending on country individual resources and possibilities. Nuclear power is seen as backbone of low carbon electricity production in Finland. Even Poland plans to build-up new nuclear power plans for reducing its carbon intensity. Therefore, only Germany reorganizes its energy supply by phasing out nuclear power and significantly expanding renewable energy sources especially wind power.