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Abstract We reconstruct the composite dynamics of Mt. Vesuvius volcano in the period 2012–2019 from the study of ground deformation, seismicity, and geofluid (groundwater and fumarolic fluids) circulation and recognize complex spatio-temporal variations in these observables at medium (years) and short (months) time-scales. We interpret the observed patterns as the combined effect of structural changes affecting the volcanic edifice and variations of the dynamics of the hydrothermal system. In particular, we identify a change in the activity state of Mt. Vesuvius. After the activity reached minimum levels in 2014, the centroid of the surface manifestations migrated towards the SE. Episodic variations of co-seismic and aseismic deformation and fluid release, if analysed separately, would likely have been interpreted as pseudo-random oscillations of the background geophysical and geochemical signals. When organised in a comprehensive, multiparametric fashion, they shed light on the evolution of the volcano in 4D (x,y,z, time) space. These inferences play a crucial role in the formulation of civil protection scenarios for Mt. Vesuvius, a high risk, densely urbanized volcanic area which has never experienced unrest episodes in the modern era of instrumental volcanology.

Volcanoes are complex systems whose dynamics is the result of the interplay between endogenous and exogenous processes. External forcing on volcanic activity by seasonal hydrological variations can influence the evolution of a volcanic system; yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In the present study, we analyse ground tilt, seismicity rates and rainfall amount recorded over 6 years (2015–2021) at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. The results indicate that at both volcanoes the ground deformation reflects the seasonality of the hydrological cycles, whereas seismicity shows a seasonal pattern only at Campi Flegrei. A correlation analysis on shorter time scales (days) indicates that at Vesuvius rain and ground tilt are poorly correlated, whereas rain and earthquakes are almost uncorrelated. Instead, at Campi Flegrei precipitations can affect not only ground deformation but also earthquake rate, through the combined action of water loading and diffusion processes in a fractured medium, likely fostered by the interaction with the shallow hydrothermal fluids. Our observations indicate a different behavior between the two volcanic systems: at Vesuvius, rain-induced hydrological variations poorly affect the normal background activity. On the contrary, such variations play a role in modulating the dynamics of those metastable volcanoes with significant hydrothermal system experiencing unrest, like Campi Flegrei.

One of the strategies to detect the precursors of an eruption is to define the background dynamical state of a volcano for a prompt recognition of deviations from the basic condition. Mt. Vesuvius (Italy), currently in a quiescent state, is one of the most monitored volcanoes in the world, inciting multidisciplinary advanced studies. Hence an understanding of the links among the different monitored parameters is mandatory. In recent decades the joint analyses of ground tilt and seismicity have added to the understanding of the volcano’s activity. In this paper, we outline the first steps towards a comprehension of the link between Mt. Vesuvius earthquakes and co-seismic ground tilt, after excluding the contribution of other external forces acting on the ground, such as tides, landslides or exceptional meteorological phenomena. We used the seismicity with a duration magnitude ≥ 2.0 recorded at Mt. Vesuvius in the period 2018–2020 to estimate the source parameters and to calculate the associated static displacement. Then, we compared the ground inclination retrieved from the estimated seismic deformation with the long-term ground motion trend measured by tiltmeters. We found that in most cases the two vectors have a comparable size and direction.

In the present paper, we analyse ground tilt and seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island, two volcanic areas located in the south of Italy. These areas have been well studied for many years from a petrological, volcanological and geophysical view point. Moreover, due to the high seismic and volcanic risk for the populations living there, they are continuously monitored by networks of geophysical and geochemical sensors. We summarize the most important results that we obtained so far, concerning the observations of relationships between seismic activity and ground tilt anomalies, focusing on the time interval 2015–2018. First, we present a detailed description of the tiltmeter and seismic networks in both the investigated areas, as well as their development and improvement over time that has enabled high quality data collection. From the joint analysis of the seismic and borehole tiltmeter signals, we often notice concurrence between tilt pattern variations and the occurrence of seismicity. Moreover, the major tilt anomalies appear to be linked with the rate and energy of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, as well as with exogenous phenomena like solid Earth tides and hydrological cycles. The analysis that we present has potential applicability to other volcanic systems. Our findings show how the joint use tilt and seismic data can contribute to better understanding of the dynamics of volcanoes.