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Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has caused ongoing disruptions to U.S. meat markets via demand and supply-side shocks. Abnormally high prices have been reported at retail outlets and meat packers have been accused of unfair business practices because of widening price spreads. Processing facilities have experienced COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in shutdowns. Using weekly data on wholesale and retail prices of beef, pork, and poultry, we characterize the time series behavior and dynamic linkages of U.S. meat prices before the COVID-19 pandemic. We model vertical price transmission using both linear and threshold autoregressive (AR) models and vector error correction (VEC) models. With the estimated models, we then compare price movements under COVID-19 to model predictions. All three meat markets are well-integrated and we observe unexpected, large price movements in April and May of 2020. Early COVID-19 related shocks appear to be transitory with prices returning to expected levels at a pace consistent with the speed of transmission prior to the pandemic. This well-functioning market process suggests a degree of resilience in U.S. meat supply chains. USDA-NIFAUnited States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Published version This research was supported by USDA-NIFA Project: COVID-19 Rapid Response: Coronavirus Disease 2019, Price Transmission, and the Farm-Retail Price Spread in U.S. Livestock. The views expressed here are those of the authors and cannot be attributed to the Economic Research Service or the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

This report addresses various aspects of the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on Virginia’s farm and agribusiness sector as of the beginning of May 2020. At the time of this writing (May 7, 2020) the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports approximately 1.2 million cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States, and over 70,000 deaths.1 Virginia’s Department of Public Health reports over 21,000 cases and over 700 deaths.2 33.5 million people have filed for unemployment claims in the United States since mid-March.3 The economic impacts of the disease have been felt much more broadly, as businesses have been forced to close or operate under different conditions, and as consumer spending power declines. As we look ahead, there is tremendous uncertainty about how the pandemic will end and how it will affect the global economy and our individual lives and livelihoods both in the short term and permanently. This report includes a general economic outlook, by Matthew Holt; overviews of the pandemic’s disruptions to the U.S. food supply chain and several major agricultural industries in Virginia, by John Bovay; an overview of agricultural policy under the pandemic, by Jennifer Friedel; a detailed analysis of effects of the pandemic on Virginia grain markets, by Olga Isengildina Massa and Patrick Kayser; an overview of results of a national survey of the impacts of the pandemic on aquaculture producers, with a focus on Virginia’s main aquaculture products, by Jonathan van Senten; and analysis of the current state of affairs for U.S.-China agricultural trade, by Jason Grant, David Orden, and Mary Marchant.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter titled ``U.S. Grass-fed Beef Price Premiums" examined monthly retail-level price premiums for grass-fed beef (relative to conventional grain-fed beef) in the U.S. from 2014 through 2021. We found that premiums were heterogeneous, with premium cuts (such as sirloin steak, tenderloin, ribeye, and filet mignon) enjoying the highest premiums. Premiums were not consistent with price levels, as the lowest premiums were observed for short ribs, skirt steak, and flank steak. Our findings suggest that grass-fed beef price premiums were negatively affected by the consumption of food away from home. Changes in income, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, revocation of the USDA grass-fed certification program in 2016 and COVID-19 pandemic, also affected premiums for several individual cuts. Premiums were not sensitive to changes in information about climate change. The second chapter, ``Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Meat Demand'', examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (AI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broilers in the U.S from 1997 to 2019. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from a Rotterdam model with animal disease cases, we found that BSE outbreaks reduced beef consumption by 0.64 percent and increased pork consumption by 2.34 percent, on average. While BSE outbreaks reduced beef demand, these effects were short lived and did not extend beyond one quarter. On the other hand, broiler consumption decreased during the HPAI outbreaks while beef and broiler consumption increased after such outbreaks. Our time-varying cross-price elasticities indicated that substitution between beef and broilers and beef and pork strengthened after Quarter 4 of 2003. The third chapter is titled ``Impact of North American Mad Cow Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Cattle Futures". Our study developed a distributional event response model (DERM) framework to show the duration and magnitude of market responses of the U.S. cattle futures market during episodes of mad cow disease (BSE) in North America between 2010 and 2019. Our results indicated that the 2017 U.S. BSE outbreak reduced the returns of live cattle futures. Additionally, the average duration of the BSE event response was about 8.5 days. Doctor of Philosophy This dissertation focused on the price analysis of the U.S. livestock market. The first chapter analysed the pattern of grass-fed beef price premiums measured as the difference between grass-fed beef price and conventional beef price. We mainly explored how the premiums were affected by consumers' income, food consumption away from home, and information on climate change, beef taste, and nutrition. We found that consumption of food away from home reduced the grass-fed beef price premiums. In addition, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, and COVID-19 pandemic, could also affected the grass-fed premiums for several individual cuts. The second chapter explored how mad cow diseases and bird flu diseases affected the demand for beef, pork, and chicken. We particularly investigated how each disease outbreak affected the meat demand. My result showed that in the presence of mad cow diseases in the U.S., people bought more pork. This result that retailers should have higher pork demand when mad cow diseases are detected. The third chapter explored how mad cow diseases in North America affected the U.S. live cattle futures. We showed that the U.S. mad cow disease in 2017 reduced the returns of U.S. cattle futures and this impact lasted about 8.5 days. Simultaneously, we found that mad cow disease outbreaks in Canada did not significantly affect the U.S. cattle futures.

Romaine lettuce and leafy greens have been at the center of food safety concerns over the last several years. More specifically, romaine lettuce has been directly linked to seven(7) foodborne illness outbreaks and resulted in five(5) recalls over the eight(8) years period of January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019. This paper estimates the effects that these food safety events have had on the price returns of romaine lettuce utilizing a series of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. Importantly, the GARCH models allowed us to capture the effects of the recall and illness outbreaks on both the returns and volatility of the romaine price series. We find that three (3) of the seven (7) illness outbreaks resulted in marked increases in the price returns - between 4.1% and 9.6%. Conversely, three (3) of the five (5) recalls reduced price returns - between 30% and 57%. However, the volatility is not found to be significantly nor to affect the price volatility significantly. We conclude that recalls serve as a market correction in the romaine lettuce market. Consequently, a continued focus on increasing traceability with in the romaine lettuce market will help to reduce price fluctuation and limit the number of illnesses resulting from outbreaks. Master of Science Romaine lettuce and leafy greens have been at the center of food safety concerns over the last several years. More specifically, romaine lettuce has been directly linked to 7 foodborne illness outbreaks and resulted in 5 recalls over the eight years, January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019. This paper estimates the effects that these food safety events have had on the price returns of romaine lettuce. It was found that 3 of the seven illness outbreaks resulted in marked increases in the price returns - between 4.1% and 9.6% while, 3 of the 5 recalls reduced price returns - between 30% and 57%. However, the volatility is not found to be significantly nor to affect the price volatility significantly. It is concluded that recalls serve as a market correction in the romaine lettuce market. A continued focus on increasing traceability with in the romaine lettuce market will help to reduce price fluctuation and limit the number of illnesses resulting from outbreaks.

This dissertation is composed of two manuscripts in Production Economics and two manuscripts in International Agricultural Development. The first two manuscripts focus on production economics, and both are an exploration of nitrogen use and its impact on continuous corn production and profitability in Colorado. The first manuscript titled "Switching Regression Stochastic Plateau Production Functions––A Comparison of Alternative Specifications" proposes an alternative approach for estimating crop yield response functions using a frequentist approach. The second manuscript titled "Profitability Effects of Different Tillage Systems in Continuous Corn Rotations" explores the interaction between different tillage systems and nitrogen fertilization in irrigated continuous corn production in northeastern Colorado. We find that strip tillage is better suited for continuous corn production under the agro-climatic conditions in northeastern Colorado. The third and fourth manuscripts focus on international agricultural development and analyze the role of factors that influence the agricultural development of small-holder farmers in Ecuador, namely, markets, food value chains, risk preferences, and risk perceptions. The third manuscript titled "Does the Use of Specialty Varieties and Post-Harvest Practices Benefit Farmers? Cocoa Value Chains in Ecuador" analyzes the impact of the use of specialty cocoa varieties on small-scale farmers' income. It finds that the use of specialty cocoa varieties has a low impact on small-scale cocoa producers' income, and that post-harvest practices may lead to substantial price responses irrespective of the type of cocoa grown. Finally, the fourth manuscript titled "Linking Risk Preferences and Risk Perceptions of Climate Change Using Prospect Theory" explores how farmers' risk preferences correlate with their perceptions of climate risk. It finds that farmers that behave in accordance to the assumptions of prospect theory are more likely to perceive greater risks from climate change, that is, they are more likely to perceive the risks associated with climate change as being more threatening at a personal level. Since risk perception is a necessary prerequisite for adaptation, the results presented in this manuscript, have important policy implications for process of adoption of new technologies aimed at mitigating effects of climate change. Doctor of Philosophy This dissertation focuses on Production Economics and International Agricultural Development. The first two manuscripts focus on production economics, and both are an exploration of nitrogen use and its impact on continuous corn production and profitability in Colorado. The first manuscript proposes an alternative approach for estimating crop yield response functions to a single input. The second manuscript explores the interaction between different tillage practices and nitrogen fertilization in irrigated continuous corn production. The third and fourth manuscripts focus on international agricultural development, and they analyze the role of different factors that influence the agricultural development of small-holder farmers in Ecuador. The third manuscript analyzes cocoa markets in Ecuador. It finds that the use of gourmet cocoa varieties has a low impact on small-scale cocoa producers' income, and that post-harvest practices may lead to substantial benefits. Finally, the fourth manuscript explores farmers' risk behavior. It finds that farmers that behave in accordance to the assumptions of prospect theory, are more likely to show a greater risk perception of climate change, that is, they are more likely to perceive the risks associated with climate change as being more threatening at a personal level. Since risk perception is a necessary prerequisite for adaptation, the results presented in this manuscript, have important policy implications for the adoption process of new technologies aimed at mitigating effects of climate change.