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The isolated sub-Antarctic islands are of major ecological interest because of their unique species diversity and long history of limited human disturbance. However, since the presence of Europeans, these islands and their sensitive biota have been under increasing pressure due to human activity and associated biological invasions. In such delicate ecosystems, biological invasions are an exceptional threat that may be further amplified by climate change. We examined the invasion trajectory of the blowfly Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy 1830). First introduced in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the 1970s, it is thought to have persisted only in sheltered microclimates for several decades. Here, we show that, in recent decades, C. vicina has been able to establish itself more widely. We combine experimental thermal developmental data with long-term ecological and meteorological monitoring to address whether warming conditions help explain its current success and dynamics in the eastern Kerguelen Islands. We found that warming temperatures and accumulated degree days could explain the species' phenological and long-term invasion dynamics, indicating that climate change has likely assisted its establishment. This study represents a unique long-term view of a polar invader and stresses the rapidly increasing susceptibility of cold regions to invasion under climate change.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The flightless beetle Merizodus soledadinus, native to the Falkland Islands and southern South America, was introduced to the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the early Twentieth Century. Using available literature data, in addition to collecting more than 2000 new survey (presence/absence) records of M. soledadinus over the 1991-2018 period, we confirmed the best estimate of the introduction date of M. soledadinus to the archipelago, and tracked subsequent changes in its abundance and geographical distribution. The range expansion of this flightless insect was initially slow, but has accelerated over the past 2 decades, in parallel with increased local abundance. Human activities may have facilitated further local colonization by M. soledadinus, which is now widespread in the eastern part of the archipelago. This predatory insect is a major threat to the native invertebrate fauna, in particular to the endemic wingless flies Anatalanta aptera and Calycopteryx moseleyi which can be locally eliminated by the beetle. Our distribution data also suggest an accelerating role of climate change in the range expansion of M. soledadinus, with populations now thriving in low altitude habitats. Considering that no control measures, let alone eradication, are practicable, it is essential to limit any further local range expansion of this aggressively invasive insect through human assistance. This study confirms the crucial importance of long term biosurveillance for the detection and monitoring of non-native species and the timely implementation of control measures.