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In patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), surgical aortic valve replacement is associated with higher early and late mortality, and adverse outcomes compared with patients without renal disease. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) offers another alternative, but there are limited reported outcomes.The purpose of this study was to determine the outcomes of TAVR in patients with ESRD.Among the first 72,631 patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) treated with TAVR enrolled in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapies) registry, 3,053 (4.2%) patients had ESRD and were compared with patients who were not on dialysis for demographics, risk factors, and outcomes.Compared with the nondialysis patients, ESRD patients were younger (76 years vs. 83 years; p 0.01) and had higher rates of comorbidities leading to a higher STS predicted risk of mortality (median 13.5% vs. 6.2%; p 0.01). ESRD patients had a higher in-hospital mortality (5.1% vs. 3.4%; p 0.01), although the observed to expected ratio was lower (0.32 vs. 0.44; p 0.01). ESRD patients also had a similar rate of major vascular complications (4.5% vs. 4.6%; p = 0.86), but a higher rate of major bleeding (1.4% vs. 1.0%; p = 0.03). The 1-year mortality was significantly higher in dialysis patients (36.8% vs. 18.7%; p 0.01).Patients undergoing TAVR with ESRD are at higher risk and had higher in-hospital mortality and bleeding, but similar vascular complications, when compared with those who are not dialysis dependent. The 1-year survival raises concerns regarding diminished benefit in this population. TAVR should be used judiciously after full discussion of the risk-benefit ratio in patients on dialysis.

Background Stroke is a serious complication after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet predictive models are not available. A new risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed and used to estimate site-specific performance. Methods We included 97,600 TAVR procedures from 521 sites in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from July 2014 to June 2017. Association between baseline covariates and in-hospital stroke was estimated by logistic regression. Discrimination was evaluated by C-statistic. Calibration was tested internally via cross-validation. Hierarchical modeling was used to estimate risk-adjusted site-specific performance. Results Median age was 82 years, 44,926 (46.0%) were women, and 1,839 (1.9%) had in-hospital stroke. Covariates associated with stroke (odds ratio) included transapical access (1.44), access excluding transapical and transfemoral (1.77), prior stroke (1.57), prior transient ischemic attack (1.50), preprocedural shock, inotropes or mechanical assist device (1.48), smoking (1.28), porcelain aorta (1.23), peripheral arterial disease (1.21), age per 5 years (1.11), glomerular filtration rate per 5 mL/min (0.97), body surface area per m2 (0.55 male; 0.43 female), and prior aortic valve (0.78) and nonaortic valvular (0.42) procedures. The C-statistic was 0.622. Calibration curves demonstrated agreement between observed and expected stroke rates. Hierarchical modeling showed 10 (1.9%) centers with significantly higher odds ratios for in-hospital stroke than their peers. Conclusions A risk model for in-hospital stroke after TAVR was developed from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry and used to estimate site-specific stroke performance. This model can serve as a valuable resource for quality improvement, clinical decision making, and patient counseling.

Background: Patients with bicuspid aortic valve (AV) stenosis were excluded from the pivotal evaluations of transcatheter AV replacement (TAVR) devices. We sought to evaluate the outcomes of TAVR in patients with bicuspid AV stenosis in comparison with those with tricuspid AV stenosis. Methods: We used data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry (November 2011 through November 2018) to determine device success, procedural outcomes, post-TAVR valve performance, and in-hospital clinical outcomes (mortality, stroke, and major bleeding) according to valve morphology (bicuspid versus tricuspid). Results were stratified by older and current (Sapien 3 and Evolut R) generation valve prostheses. Medicare administrative claims were used to evaluate mortality and stroke to 1 year among eligible individuals (≥65 years). Results: After exclusions, there were 170 959 eligible procedures at 593 sites during the specified interval. Of these, 5412 TAVR procedures (3.2%) were performed in patients with bicuspid AV, including 3705 with current-generation devices. In comparison with patients with tricuspid valves, patients with bicuspid AV were younger and had a lower Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Operative Mortality score. When current-generation devices were used to treat patients with bicuspid AV, device success increased (93.5 versus 96.3; P =0.001) and the incidence of 2+ aortic insufficiency declined (14.0% versus 2.7%; P P =0.07), with a slightly higher incidence of residual moderate or severe aortic insufficiency among patients with bicuspid AV (2.7% versus 2.1%; P Conclusions: Using current-generation devices, procedural, postprocedural, and 1-year outcomes were comparable following TAVR for bicuspid AV versus tricuspid AV disease. With newer-generation devices, TAVR is a viable treatment option for patients with bicuspid AV disease.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses statistical models to create risk-adjusted performance metrics for Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) participants. Because of temporal changes in patient characteristics and outcomes, evolution of surgical practice, and additional risk factors available in recent ACSD versions, completely new risk models have been developed. Methods Using July 2011 to June 2014 ACSD data, risk models were developed for operative mortality, stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, reoperation, major morbidity or mortality composite, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay among patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 439,092), aortic or mitral valve surgery (n = 150,150), or combined valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 81,588). Separate models were developed for each procedure and endpoint except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which was analyzed in a combined model because of its infrequency. A surgeon panel selected predictors by assessing model performance and clinical face validity of full and progressively more parsimonious models. The ACSD data (July 2014 to December 2016) were used to assess model calibration and to compare discrimination with previous STS risk models. Results Calibration in the validation sample was excellent for all models except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which slightly underestimated risk and will be recalibrated in feedback reports. The c-indices of new models exceeded those of the last published STS models for all populations and endpoints except stroke in valve patients. Conclusions New STS ACSD risk models have generally excellent calibration and discrimination and are well suited for risk adjustment of STS performance metrics.

Objectives The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty. Background Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients. Methods Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test). Results Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups. Conclusions A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and to less experienced sites and will allow an objective comparison of short-term mortality rates across centers.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS CHSD) is the largest congenital and pediatric cardiac surgical clinical data registry in the world. It contains data pertaining to more than 435,000 total operations. The most recent biannual feedback report to participants (Spring 2017, Report of the Twenty-Sixth Harvest) included analysis of data submitted from 127 hospitals in North America. That represents nearly all centers performing pediatric and congenital heart operations in the United States and Canada. As an unparalleled platform for assessment of outcomes and for quality improvement activities in the subspecialty of surgery for pediatric and congenital heart disease, the STS CHSD continues to be a primary data source for clinical investigations and for research and innovations related to quality measurement. In 2016, several major original publications reported analyses of data in the CHSD pertaining to various processes of care, including assessment of variation across centers and associations between specific practices, patient characteristics, and outcomes. Additional publications reported the most recent development, evaluation, and application of metrics for quality measurement and reporting of pediatric and congenital heart operation outcomes and center level performance. Use of the STS CHSD for outcomes research and for quality measurement continues to expand as database participation has grown to include nearly all centers in North America, and the available wealth of data in the database continues to grow. This article reviews outcomes research and quality improvement articles published in 2016 that are based on STS CHSD data.

Background Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has been introduced into U.S. clinical practice with efforts to optimize outcomes and minimize the learning curve. Objectives The goal of this study was to assess the degree to which increasing experience during the introduction of this procedure, separated from other outcome determinants including patient and procedural characteristics, is associated with outcomes. Methods The authors evaluated the association of hospital TAVR volume and patient outcomes for TAVR by using data from 42,988 commercial procedures conducted at 395 hospitals submitting to the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry from 2011 through 2015. Outcomes assessed included adjusted and unadjusted in-hospital major adverse events. Results Increasing site volume was associated with lower in-hospital risk-adjusted outcomes, including mortality (p Conclusions The initial adoption of TAVR into practice in the United States showed that increasing experience was associated with better outcomes. This association, whether deemed a prolonged learning curve or a manifestation of a volume–outcome relationship, suggested that concentrating experience in higher volume heart valve centers might be a means of improving outcomes. (STS/ACC Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry [TVT Registry]; NCT01737528 )

Background Randomized trials support the use of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) for the treatment of aortic stenosis in high- and intermediate-risk patients, but the generalizability of those results in clinical practice has been challenged. Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the safety and effectiveness of TAVR versus surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), particularly in intermediate- and high-risk patients, in a nationally representative real-world cohort. Methods Using data from the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry and Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database linked to Medicare administrative claims for follow-up, 9,464 propensity-matched intermediate- and high-risk (Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score ≥3%) U.S. patients who underwent commercial TAVR or SAVR were examined. Death, stroke, and days alive and out of the hospital to 1 year were compared, as well as discharge home, with subgroup analyses by surgical risk, demographics, and comorbidities. Results In a propensity-matched cohort (median age 82 years, 48% women, median Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score 5.6%), TAVR and SAVR patients experienced no difference in 1-year rates of death (17.3% vs. 17.9%; hazard ratio: 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83 to 1.04) and stroke (4.2% vs. 3.3%; hazard ratio: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.47), and no difference was observed in the proportion of days alive and out of the hospital to 1 year (rate ratio: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.02). However, TAVR patients were more likely to be discharged home after treatment (69.9% vs. 41.2%; odds ratio: 3.19; 95% CI: 2.84 to 3.58). Results were consistent across most subgroups, including among intermediate- and high-risk patients. Conclusions Among unselected intermediate- and high-risk patients, TAVR and SAVR resulted in similar rates of death, stroke, and DAOH to 1 year, but TAVR patients were more likely to be discharged home.

Established in 1989, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is one of the most comprehensive clinical data registries in health care. It is widely regarded as the gold standard for benchmarking risk-adjusted outcomes in cardiac surgery and is the foundation for all quality measurement and improvement activities of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. This is the second in a series of annual reports that summarizes current aggregate national outcomes in cardiac surgery and reviews database-related activities in the areas of quality measurement and performance improvement during the past year.

The art and science of outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety continue to evolve, and cardiothoracic surgery leads many of these advances. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database is one of the principal reasons for this leadership role, as it provides a platform for the generation of knowledge in all of these domains. Understanding these topics is a professional responsibility of all cardiothoracic surgeons. Therefore, beginning in January 2016, The Annals of Thoracic Surgery began publishing a monthly series of scholarly articles on outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety. This article provides a summary of the status of the STS National Database as of October 2016 and summarizes the articles about the STS National Database that appeared in The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 2016 series, "Outcomes Analysis, Quality Improvement, and Patient Safety."

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database has grown to more than 500,000 case records. Clinical research supported by the database is increasingly used to advance patient outcomes. This research review from the General Thoracic Surgery Database in 2014 and 2015 discusses 6 recent publications and an ongoing study on longitudinal outcomes in lung cancer surgery from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Task Force for Linked Registries and Longitudinal Follow-up. A lack of database variables specific for certain uncommon procedures limits the ability to study these operations; inclusion of clinical descriptors for selected infrequent but clinically important thoracic disorders is suggested.

Background— The use of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) to treat aortic stenosis in the United States is growing, yet little is known about the variation in procedural outcomes in community practice. We developed a TAVR in-hospital mortality risk model and used it to quantify variation in mortality rates across United States (US) TAVR centers. Methods and Results— We analyzed data from 22 248 TAVR procedures performed at 318 sites participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry (November 2011 to October 2014). A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to estimate hospital-specific risk-adjusted mortality rates adjusting for 40 patient baseline factors. A total of 1130 in-hospital deaths (5.1%) were observed. Reliability-adjusted risk-adjusted mortality rate estimates ranged from 3.4% to 7.7% with an interquartile range of 4.8% to 5.4%. A patient’s predicted odds of dying was 80% higher if treated by a hospital 1 standard deviation above the mean compared with a hospital 1 standard deviation below the mean (odds ratio =1.8; 95% credible interval, 1.4%–2.2%). Conclusions— Risk modeling of TAVR in-hospital mortality revealed variation in risk-adjusted mortality rates during the US early commercial experience. Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry analyses using this model will support research, feedback reporting, and the identification of factors associated with quality.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS CHSD) is the largest congenital and pediatric cardiac surgical clinical data registry in the world. With more than 400,000 total operations from nearly all centers performing pediatric and congenital heart operations in North America, the STS CHSD is an unparalleled platform for clinical investigation, outcomes research, and quality improvement activities in this subspecialty. In 2015, several major original publications reported analyses of data in the CHSD pertaining to specific diagnostic and procedural groups, age-defined cohorts, or the entire population of patients in the database. Additional publications reported the most recent development, evaluation, and application of metrics for quality measurement and reporting of pediatric and congenital heart operation outcomes. This use of the STS CHSD for outcomes research and for quality measurement continues to expand as database participation and the available wealth of data in it continue to grow. This article reviews outcomes research and quality improvement articles published in 2015 based on STS CHSD data.

Background Failure to rescue (FTR) is increasingly recognized as an important quality indicator in surgery. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database was used to develop FTR metrics and a predictive FTR model for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Methods The study included 604,154 patients undergoing isolated CABG at 1,105 centers from January 2010 to January 2014. FTR was defined as death after four complications: stroke, renal failure, reoperation, and prolonged ventilation. FTR was determined for each complication and a composite of the four complications. A statistical model to predict FTR was developed. Results FTR rates were 22.3% for renal failure, 16.4% for stroke, 12.4% for reoperation, 12.1% for prolonged ventilation, and 10.5% for the composite. Mortality increased with multiple complications and with specific combinations of complications. The multivariate risk model for prediction of FTR demonstrated a C index of 0.792 and was well calibrated, with a 1.0% average difference between observed/expected (O/E) FTR rates. With centers grouped into mortality terciles, complication rates increased modestly (11.4% to 15.7%), but FTR rates more than doubled (6.8% to 13.9%) from the lowest to highest terciles. Centers in the lowest complication rate tercile had an FTR O/E of 1.14, whereas centers in the highest complication rate tercile had an FTR O/E of 0.91. Conclusions CABG mortality rates vary directly with FTR, but complication rates have little relation to death. FTR rates derived from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons data can serve as national benchmarks. Predicted FTR rates may facilitate patient counseling, and FTR O/E ratios have promise as valuable quality metrics.

Background In older adults undergoing cardiac surgery, prediction of downstream risk is critical. Our objective was to determine the association of 5‐m gait speed with 1‐year mortality and repeat hospitalization following cardiac surgery. Methods and Results In this prospective cohort of patients undergoing cardiac surgery at centers participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Database with gait speed recorded, we examined all‐cause mortality using a landmark analysis at 0 to 30, 30 to 365, and >365 days, as well as repeat hospitalization. The cohort consisted of 8287 patients (median age, 74 years; 32% females). At 1 year, survival was 90% in the slow (1.00 m/s) gait speed tertiles, and risk of hospitalization was 45%, 33%, and 27%, respectively (both P Conclusions Gait speed is a simple tool to screen for frailty and identify older adults at risk for adverse events in the early and midterm postoperative periods.

Patients undergoing post infarction ventricular septal defect repair are at high risk for early morbidity and mortality, but little is known about subsequent clinical events. This study uses short-term clinical data from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database linked with Medicare data to examine longer term outcomes in these patients.This was a retrospective review of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database to link with Medicare data all adults (≥65 years) who underwent ventricular septal defect repair after a myocardial infarction between 2008 and 2012. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. Risk factors for 1-year survival were modeled using a multivariable Cox regression.Five hundred thirty-seven patients were identified using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database and Medicare linkage. Median age was 74 years, and 277 patients (52%) were men. One hundred ninety-two patients (36%) were supported preoperatively with an intraaortic balloon pump. Surgical status was emergent or salvage in 138 (26%), and 158 patients (29%) died within 30 days and 207 (39%) within 1 year. Among patients who survived to hospital discharge, 44% were discharged to a facility and 172 (32%) experienced at least 1 all-cause readmission within 1 year. Unadjusted 1-year mortality rates were 13% for elective patients and 69% for emergency status (P.01). On multivariable analysis emergency/salvage status, older age, and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting were independently associated with worse 1-year survival.These data suggest the greatest mortality risk in this patient population occurs in the first 30 days. Emergency or salvage status strongly predicts 1-year mortality. Optimizing physiologic derangements before operative repair may be considered when possible in this subgroup of patients.

Background Among clinical trial patients at high surgical risk, a model has been developed and externally validated to estimate patient risk for poor outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). How this model performs in lower risk and unselected patients is not known. We sought to examine and optimize the performance of the TAVR poor outcome risk model among patients in the US Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry. Methods and Results Among 13 351 patients who underwent TAVR at 252 US sites between November 9, 2011 and June 30, 2015, the rate of poor outcome at 1 year after TAVR was 38.9%, which was because of death in 20.7% and poor quality of life or quality of life decline in 18.2%. The rate of poor outcome has decreased slightly over time, from 42.0% in 2012 to 37.8% in 2015 ( P for trend=0.076). The original TAVR poor outcome risk model did not calibrate well on this population. We then reestimated the intercept and coefficients in the model and retested model performance, after which it performed well (both overall and in subgroups), with a C index 0.65 and excellent calibration. Conclusions In a large cohort of unselected patients in the United States, we found that while a substantial minority of patients continue to have a poor outcome after TAVR, outcomes have slowly improved over time. After recalibration, the TAVR poor outcome risk model performed well. This model could potentially be used before TAVR to help patients have appropriate expectations of recovery.

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) that accounted for both standard clinical factors and pre-procedural health status and frailty.Assessment of risk for TAVR is important both for patient selection and provider comparisons. Prior efforts for risk adjustment have focused on in-hospital mortality, which is easily obtainable but can be biased because of early discharge of ill patients.Using data from patients who underwent TAVR as part of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology TVT (Transcatheter Valve Therapy) Registry (June 2013 to May 2016), a hierarchical logistic regression model to estimate risk for 30-day mortality after TAVR based only on pre-procedural factors and access site was developed and internally validated. The model included factors from the original TVT Registry in-hospital mortality model but added the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (health status) and gait speed (5-m walk test).Among 21,661 TAVR patients at 188 sites, 1,025 (4.7%) died within 30 days. Independent predictors of 30-day death included older age, low body weight, worse renal function, peripheral artery disease, home oxygen, prior myocardial infarction, left main coronary artery disease, tricuspid regurgitation, nonfemoral access, worse baseline health status, and inability to walk. The predicted 30-day mortality risk ranged from 1.1% (lowest decile of risk) to 13.8% (highest decile of risk). The model was able to stratify risk on the basis of patient factors with good discrimination (C = 0.71 [derivation], C = 0.70 [split-sample validation]) and excellent calibration, both overall and in key patient subgroups.A clinical risk model was developed for 30-day death after TAVR that included clinical data as well as health status and frailty. This model will facilitate tracking outcomes over time as TAVR expands to lower risk patients and to less experienced sites and will allow an objective comparison of short-term mortality rates across centers.

Background— Previous studies have reported that black patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery had worse outcomes than white patients, even after accounting for patient factors. The degree to which clinician, hospital, and care factors account for these outcome differences remains unclear. Methods and Results— We evaluated procedural outcomes in 11 697 blacks and 136 362 whites undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass surgery at 663 Society of Thoracic Surgery Database participating sites (January 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011) adjusted for patients’ clinical and socioeconomic features, hospital and surgeon effects, and care processes (internal mammary artery graft and perioperative medications use). Relative to whites, blacks undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were younger, yet had higher comorbidities and more adverse presenting features. Blacks were also more likely to be treated at hospitals with higher risk-adjusted mortality. The use of internal mammary artery was marginally lower in blacks than in whites (93.3% versus 92.2%, P P P Conclusions— The risks of procedural mortality and morbidity after coronary artery bypass surgery were higher among black patients than among white patients. These differences were in part accounted for by patient comorbidities, socioeconomic status, and surgeon, hospital, and care factors, as well, as suggested by the reduction in the strength of the race-outcomes association. However, black race remained an independent predictor of outcomes even after accounting for these differences.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) has been successfully linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) Medicare database, thereby facilitating comparative effectiveness research and providing information about long-term follow-up and cost. The present study uses this link to determine contemporary completeness, penetration, and representativeness of the STS ACSD. Methods Using variables common to both STS and CMS databases, STS operations were linked to CMS data for all CMS coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery hospitalizations discharged between 2000 and 2012, inclusive. For each CMS CABG hospitalization, it was determined whether a matching STS record existed. Results Center-level penetration (number of CMS sites with at least one matched STS participant divided by the total number of CMS CABG sites) increased from 45% in 2000 to 90% in 2012. In 2012, 973 of 1,081 CMS CABG sites (90%) were linked to an STS site. Patient-level penetration (number of CMS CABG hospitalizations done at STS sites divided by the total number of CMS CABG hospitalizations) increased from 51% in 2000 to 94% in 2012. In 2012, 71,634 of 76,072 CMS CABG hospitalizations (94%) occurred at an STS site. Completeness of case inclusion at STS sites (number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites linked to STS records divided by the total number of CMS CABG cases at STS sites) increased from 88% in 2000 to 98% in 2012. In 2012, 69,213 of 70,932 CMS CABG hospitalizations at STS sites (98%) were linked to an STS record. Conclusions Linkage of STS and CMS databases demonstrates high and increasing penetration and completeness of the STS database. Linking STS and CMS data facilitates studying long-term outcomes and costs of cardiothoracic surgery.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database is the foundation for most of the Society's quality, research, and patient safety activities. Beginning in January 2016 and repeating each year, The Annals of Thoracic Surgery will publish a monthly Database series of scholarly articles on outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety. Six articles will be directly derived from the STS National Database and will be published every other month: three articles on outcomes and quality (one each from the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database, the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database, and the STS General Thoracic Surgery Database), and three articles on research (one from each of these three specialty databases). These six articles will alternate with five additional articles on topics related to patient safety. The final article, to be published in December, will provide a summary of the prior 11 manuscripts. This series will allow STS and its Workforces on National Databases, Research Development, and Patient Safety to convey timely information aimed at improving the quality and safety of cardiothoracic surgery.

Background The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) Registry has been a joint initiative of the STS and the ACC in concert with multiple stakeholders. The TVT Registry has important information regarding patient selection, delivery of care, science, education, and research in the field of structural valvular heart disease. Objectives This report provides an overview on current U.S. TVT practice and trends. The emphasis is on demographics, in-hospital procedural characteristics, and outcomes of patients having transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) performed at 348 U.S. centers. Methods The TVT Registry captured 26,414 TAVR procedures as of December 31, 2014. Temporal trends between 2012 and 2013 versus 2014 were compared. Results Comparison of the 2 time periods reveals that TAVR patients remain elderly (mean age 82 years), with multiple comorbidities, reflected by a high mean STS predicted risk of mortality (STS PROM) for surgical valve replacement (8.34%), were highly symptomatic (New York Heart Association functional class III/IV in 82.5%), frail (slow 5-m walk test in 81.6%), and have poor self-reported health status (median baseline Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score of 39.1). Procedure performance is changing, with an increased use of moderate sedation (from 1.6% to 5.1%) and increase in femoral access using percutaneous techniques (66.8% in 2014). Vascular complication rates are decreasing (from 5.6% to 4.2%), whereas site-reported stroke rates remain stable at 2.2%. Conclusions The TVT Registry provides important information on characteristics and outcomes of TAVR in contemporary U.S. clinical practice. It can be used to identify trends in practice and opportunities for quality improvement.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Cost-effectiveness has become an increasingly important tool in assessing the value of healthcare. The principles of cost-effectiveness and the need to standardize the methodology are discussed. Documented variation could be used to adjust reimbursement. RECENT FINDINGS The US healthcare system continues to be under financial pressure. Although national health expenditures have slowed, growth rates continue to outpace gross domestic product. Spending in the coming years is expected to grow 7% annually. Treatment of cardiac disease, and in particular ischemic heart disease, is a significant portion of healthcare spending. A strategy to improve clinical and financial outcomes for revascularization procedures is essential. Recently, the SYNTAX trial and ASCERT have addressed cost-effectiveness as an outcome measure in revascularization for coronary artery disease. SUMMARY Cost-effectiveness is becoming an important part of healthcare provider performance and patient outcomes. Difficulties in obtaining cost, resource use, and quality of life data are not insurmountable as recently documented in randomized and observational trials. Reimbursement has already been linked to costs and resource use in current regulation. As the payment systems move toward disease management, cost-effectiveness will be the measure of choice. The prevalence of cardiac disease in the US population will mandate its use in adjusting payments to these providers.

To evaluate participant characteristics and outcomes during the first 4 years of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) public reporting program.This is the first detailed analysis of a national, voluntary, cardiac surgery public reporting program using STS clinical registry data and National Quality Forum-endorsed performance measures.The distributions of risk-adjusted mortality rates, multidimensional composite performance scores, star ratings, and volumes for public reporting versus nonreporting sites were studied during 9 consecutive semiannual reporting periods (2010-2014).Among 8929 unique observations (∼1000 STS participant centers, 9 reporting periods), 916 sites (10.3%) were classified low performing, 6801 (76.2%) were average, and 1212 (13.6%) were high performing. STS public reporting participation varied from 22.2% to 46.3% over the 9 reporting periods. Risk-adjusted, patient-level mortality rates for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were consistently lower in public reporting versus nonreporting sites (P value range:0.001-0.0077). Reporting centers had higher composite performance scores and star ratings (23.2% high performing and 4.5% low performing vs 7.6% high performing and 13.8% low performing for nonreporting sites). STS public reporting sites had higher mean annualized coronary artery bypass grafting volumes than nonreporting sites (169 vs 145, P0.0001); high-performing programs had higher mean coronary artery bypass grafting volumes (n = 241) than average (n = 139) or low-performing (n = 153) sites. Risk factor prevalence (except reoperation) and expected mortality rates were generally stable during the study period.STS programs that voluntarily participate in public reporting have significantly higher volumes and performance. No evidence of risk aversion was found.

Background Risk-adjusted mortality (RAM) models are increasingly used to evaluate hospital performance, but the validity of the RAM method has been questioned. Providers are concerned that these methods might not adequately account for the highest levels of risk and that treating high-risk cases will have a negative impact on RAM rankings. Methods Using cases of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) performed at 1002 sites in the United States participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database from 2008 to 2010 (N = 494,955), the STS CABG RAM model performance in high-risk patients was assessed. The ratios of observed to expected (O/E) perioperative mortality were compared among groups of hospitals with varying expected risks. Finally, RAM rates during the overall study period for each site were compared with its performance in a simulated "nightmare year" in which the site's highest risk cases over a 3-year period were concentrated into a 1-year period of exceptional risk. Results The average predicted mortality for center risk groups ranged from 1.46% for the lowest risk quintile to 2.87% for the highest. The O/E ratios for center risk quintiles 1 to 5 during the overall period were 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.96% to 1.06%), 1.00 (0.95% to 1.04%), 0.98 (0.94% to 1.03%), 0.97 (0.93% to 1.01%), and 0.80 (0.77% to 0.84%), respectively. The sites' risk-adjusted mortality rates were not increased when the centers' highest risk cases were concentrated into a single "nightmare year." Conclusions Our results show that the current risk-adjusted models accurately estimate CABG mortality and that hospitals accepting more high-risk CABG patients have equal or better outcomes than do those with predominately lower-risk patients.

The current system for postmarket surveillance of medical devices in the United States is limited. To help change this paradigm for transcatheter valve therapies (TVTs), starting with transcatheter aortic valve replacement, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons and the American College of Cardiology partnered to form the TVT Registry program in close collaboration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The goal of the TVT Registry is to measure and improve quality of care and patient outcomes in clinical practice and to have a pivotal role in the scientific evidence and surveillance for medical devices. Challenges were faced in the early experience of the registry included developing multistakeholder partnerships, data collection requirements, and the use of the registry for pre- and post-market device evaluations. In addressing these challenges, the TVT Registry demonstrates that it is feasible for professional societies to assume a pivotal role in pre- and/or post-market studies, leveraging a clinical registry infrastructure. Sharing the TVT Registry experience may help other professional societies and stakeholders better anticipate and plan for these challenges.

Background ASCERT (American College of Cardiology Foundation and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Collaboration on the Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies) was a large observational study designed to compare the long-term effectiveness of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat coronary artery disease (CAD) over 4 to 5 years. Objectives This study examined the cost-effectiveness of CABG versus PCI for stable ischemic heart disease. Methods The Society of Thoracic Surgeons and American College of Cardiology Foundation databases were linked to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims data. Costs for the index and observation period (2004 to 2008) hospitalizations were assessed by diagnosis-related group Medicare reimbursement rates; costs beyond the observation period were estimated from average Medicare participant per capita expenditure. Effectiveness was measured via mortality and life-expectancy data. Cost and effectiveness comparisons were adjusted using propensity score matching with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results CABG patients (n = 86,244) and PCI patients (n = 103,549) were at least 65 years old with 2- or 3-vessel coronary artery disease. Adjusted costs were higher for CABG for the index hospitalization, study period, and lifetime by $10,670, $8,145, and $11,575, respectively. Patients undergoing CABG gained an adjusted average of 0.2525 and 0.3801 life-years relative to PCI over the observation period and lifetime, respectively. The life-time incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CABG compared to PCI was $30,454/QALY gained. Conclusions Over a period of 4 years or longer, patients undergoing CABG had better outcomes but at higher costs than those undergoing PCI.

Containing more than 6 million cumulative operative records and accounting for 90% to 95% of adult cardiac surgery performed in the United States, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is an invaluable resource for performance assessment, quality improvement, and clinical research. This article reviews the seven major research efforts published in 2016 that utilized the Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. Two studies evaluated national trends in clinical practice, three assessed the effect of several risk factors on postoperative morbidity and mortality, and two developed new models to evaluate quality of care. The findings of these studies have enhanced clinical practice and delineated areas for future quality improvement research.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) Registry captures all procedures with Food and Drug Administration-approved transcatheter valve devices performed in the United States, and is mandated as a condition of reimbursement by the Centers for MedicaidMedicare Services.This annual report focuses on patient characteristics, trends, and outcomes of transcatheter aortic and mitral valve catheter-based valve procedures in the United States.We reviewed data for all patients receiving commercially approved devices from 2012 through December 31, 2015, that are entered in the TVT Registry.The 54,782 patients with transcatheter aortic valve replacement demonstrated decreases in expected risk of 30-day operative mortality (STS Predicted Risk of Mortality [PROM]) of 7% to 6% and transcatheter aortic valve replacement PROM (TVT PROM) of 4% to 3% (both p 0.0001) from 2012 to 2015. Observed in-hospital mortality decreased from 5.7% to 2.9%, and 1-year mortality decreased from 25.8% to 21.6%. However, 30-day post-procedure pacemaker insertion increased from 8.8% in 2013 to 12.0% in 2015. The 2,556 patients who underwent transcatheter mitral leaflet clip in 2015 were similar to patients from 2013 to 2014, with hospital mortality of 2% and with mitral regurgitation reduced to grade ≤2 in 87% of patients (p 0.0001). The 349 patients who underwent mitral valve-in-valve and mitral valve-in-ring procedures were high risk, with an STS PROM for mitral valve replacement of 11%. The observed hospital mortality was 7.2%, and 30-day post-procedure mortality was 8.5%.The TVT Registry is an innovative registry that that monitors quality, patient safety and trends for these rapidly evolving new technologies.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) Registry captures all procedures with Food and Drug Administration-approved transcatheter valve devices performed in the United States, and is mandated as a condition of reimbursement by the Centers for MedicaidMedicare Services.This annual report focuses on patient characteristics, trends, and outcomes of transcatheter aortic and mitral valve catheter-based valve procedures in the United States.We reviewed data for all patients receiving commercially approved devices from 2012 through December 31, 2015, that are entered in the TVT Registry.The 54,782 patients with transcatheter aortic valve replacement demonstrated decreases in expected risk of 30-day operative mortality (STS Predicted Risk of Mortality [PROM]) of 7% to 6% and transcatheter aortic valve replacement PROM (TVT PROM) of 4% to 3% (both p 0.0001) from 2012 to 2015. Observed in-hospital mortality decreased from 5.7% to 2.9%, and 1-year mortality decreased from 25.8% to 21.6%. However, 30-day post-procedure pacemaker insertion increased from 8.8% in 2013 to 12.0% in 2015. The 2,556 patients who underwent transcatheter mitral leaflet clip in 2015 were similar to patients from 2013 to 2014, with hospital mortality of 2% and with mitral regurgitation reduced to grade ≤2 in 87% of patients (p 0.0001). The 349 patients who underwent mitral valve-in-valve and mitral valve-in-ring procedures were high risk, with an STS PROM for mitral valve replacement of 11%. The observed hospital mortality was 7.2%, and 30-day post-procedure mortality was 8.5%.The TVT Registry is an innovative registry that that monitors quality, patient safety and trends for these rapidly evolving new technologies.

Importance Patient selection for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) should include assessment of the risks of TAVR compared with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Existing SAVR risk models accurately predict the risks for the population undergoing SAVR, but comparable models to predict risk for patients undergoing TAVR are currently not available and should be derived from a population that underwent TAVR. Objective To use a national population of patients undergoing TAVR to develop a statistical model that will predict in-hospital mortality after TAVR. Design, Setting, and Participants Patient data were obtained from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy (STS/ACC TVT) Registry. The model was developed from 13 718 consecutive US patients undergoing TAVR in centers participating in the STS/ACC TVT Registry from November 1, 2011, to February 28, 2014. Validation was conducted using 6868 records of consecutive patients undergoing TAVR from March 1 to October 8, 2014. Covariates were selected through a process of expert opinion and statistical analysis. The association between in-hospital mortality and baseline covariates was estimated using logistic regression. The final set of predictors was selected via stepwise variable selection. Data were collected and analyzed from November 1, 2011, to February 28, 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures In-hospital TAVR mortality. Results The development sample included 13 718 patient records from 265 participant sites (of 13 672 with data available, 6680 men [48.9%]; 6992 women [51.1%]; mean [SD] age, 82.1 [8.3] years). The final validation cohort included 6868 patients from 314 participating centers (3554 men [51.7%]; 3314 women [48.3%]; mean [SD] age, 81.6 [8.8] years). In-hospital mortality occurred in 730 patients (5.3%). The C statistic for discrimination was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.69) in the development group and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.69) in the validation group. The final model covariates (reported as odds ratios; 95% CIs) were age (1.13; 1.06-1.20), glomerular filtration rate per 5-U increments (0.93; 0.91-0.95), hemodialysis (3.25; 2.42-4.37), New York Heart Association functional class IV (1.25; 1.03-1.52), severe chronic lung disease (1.67; 1.35-2.05), nonfemoral access site (1.96; 1.65- 2.33), and procedural acuity categories 2 (1.57; 1.20-2.05), 3 (2.70; 2.05-3.55), and 4 (3.34; 1.59-7.02). Calibration analysis demonstrated no significant difference between the model (predicted vs observed) calibration line (−0.18 and 0.97 for intercept and slope, respectively) compared with the ideal calibration line. Conclusions and Relevance Data from the STS/ACC TVT Registry have been used to develop a predictive model of in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing TAVR. Validation based on a population of patient records not used in model development demonstrates discrimination and calibration indices that are more favorable than other models used in populations with TAVR. This model should be a valuable adjunct for patient counseling, local quality improvement, and national monitoring for appropriateness of selection of patients for TAVR.

Outcomes after TAVR have improved due to better patient selection, evolving technology, and provider experience. To fairly compare these outcomes across centers requires appropriate adjustment for patient risk. We sought to develop and validate a risk adjustment model that accounted for standard

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database is the foundation for most of the Society's quality, research, and patient safety activities. Beginning in January 2016 and repeating each year, The Annals of Thoracic Surgery will publish a monthly Database series of scholarly articles on outcomes analysis, quality improvement, and patient safety. Six articles will be directly derived from the STS National Database and will be published every other month: three articles on outcomes and quality (one each from the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database, the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database, and the STS General Thoracic Surgery Database), and three articles on research (one from each of these three specialty databases). These six articles will alternate with five additional articles on topics related to patient safety. The final article, to be published in December, will provide a summary of the prior 11 manuscripts. This series will allow STS and its Workforces on National Databases, Research Development, and Patient Safety to convey timely information aimed at improving the quality and safety of cardiothoracic surgery.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology (ACC) Transcatheter Valve Therapy (TVT) Registry has been a joint initiative of the STS and the ACC in concert with multiple stakeholders. The TVT Registry has important information regarding patient selection, delivery of care, science, education, and research in the field of structural valvular heart disease.This report provides an overview on current U.S. TVT practice and trends. The emphasis is on demographics, in-hospital procedural characteristics, and outcomes of patients having transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) performed at 348 U.S. centers.The TVT Registry captured 26,414 TAVR procedures as of December 31, 2014. Temporal trends between 2012 and 2013 versus 2014 were compared.Comparison of the 2 time periods reveals that TAVR patients remain elderly (mean age 82 years), with multiple comorbidities, reflected by a high mean STS predicted risk of mortality (STS PROM) for surgical valve replacement (8.34%), were highly symptomatic (New York Heart Association functional class III/IV in 82.5%), frail (slow 5-m walk test in 81.6%), and have poor self-reported health status (median baseline Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score of 39.1). Procedure performance is changing, with an increased use of moderate sedation (from 1.6% to 5.1%) and increase in femoral access using percutaneous techniques (66.8% in 2014). Vascular complication rates are decreasing (from 5.6% to 4.2%), whereas site-reported stroke rates remain stable at 2.2%.The TVT Registry provides important information on characteristics and outcomes of TAVR in contemporary U.S. clinical practice. It can be used to identify trends in practice and opportunities for quality improvement.

Introducing new medical devices into routine practice raises concerns because patients and outcomes may differ from those in randomized trials.To update the previous report of 30-day outcomes and present 1-year outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in the United States.Data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology (STS/ACC) Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry were linked with patient-specific Centers for MedicareMedicaid Services (CMS) administrative claims data. At 299 US hospitals, 12 182 patients linked with CMS data underwent TAVR procedures performed from November 2011 through June 30, 2013, and the end of the follow-up period was June 30, 2014.Transcatheter aortic valve replacement.One-year outcomes including mortality, stroke, and rehospitalization were evaluated using multivariate modeling.The median age of patients was 84 years and 52% were women, with a median STS Predicted Risk of Operative Mortality (STS PROM) score of 7.1%. Following the TAVR procedure, 59.8% were discharged to home and the 30-day mortality was 7.0% (95% CI, 6.5%-7.4%) (n = 847 deaths). In the first year after TAVR, patients were alive and out of the hospital for a median of 353 days (interquartile range, 312-359 days); 24.4% (n = 2074) of survivors were rehospitalized once and 12.5% (n = 1525) were rehospitalized twice. By 1 year, the overall mortality rate was 23.7% (95% CI, 22.8%-24.5%) (n = 2450 deaths), the stroke rate was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.7%-4.5%) (n = 455 stroke events), and the rate of the composite outcome of mortality and stroke was 26.0% (25.1%-26.8%) (n = 2719 events). Characteristics significantly associated with 1-year mortality included advanced age (hazard ratio [HR] for ≥95 vs75 years, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.09]; HR for 85-94 years vs75 years, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.18-1.55]; and HR for 75-84 years vs75 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]), male sex (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.31), end-stage renal disease (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.41-1.95), severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.25-1.55), nontransfemoral access (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48), STS PROM score greater than 15% vs less than 8% (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.60-2.06), and preoperative atrial fibrillation/flutter (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48). Compared with men, women had a higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.15-1.71).Among patients undergoing TAVR in US clinical practice, at 1-year follow-up, overall mortality was 23.7%, the stroke rate was 4.1%, and the rate of the composite outcome of death and stroke was 26.0%. These findings should be helpful in discussions with patients undergoing TAVR.

Heart valve diseases are increasingly prevalent, especially in people older than age seventy. Many of these elderly people have other comorbid conditions, making them poor candidates for surgical treatment of heart valve diseases. Since 2011 such patients have been eligible to receive new nonsurgical heart valve treatments approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and covered by Medicare. This article examines the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry, which captures clinical information on all US patients undergoing new nonsurgical heart valve treatments. The registry has patient-level data from more than 27,000 patients treated with the novel devices. Patient- and procedure-related data are gathered from hospitals, patient-reported outcomes are assessed pre- and postprocedure, and longer-term data on mortality and repeat hospitalization are provided by linking the registry's data to Medicare patient data. The registry is a model of collaboration among professional societies, the FDA, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, hospitals, patients, and the medical device industry. It has been used to support Medicare coverage decisions, expand device indications, provide comprehensive device surveillance, and establish national quality benchmarks. Beyond having it serve as a collaborative model, future goals for the registry include shortening the FDA-approval timeline for devices, providing data for decision-making tools for patients, and public reporting of hospital performance.

RESULTS Among the cohort of 15 171 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the median age was 71 years and 4622 were female (30.5%). Compared with patients in the fastest gait speed tertile (>1.00m/s), operative mortality was increased for those in themiddle tertile (0.83-1.00m/s; odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% CI, 1.34-2.34) and slowest tertile (

When transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) cannot be carried out through transfemoral access, alternative access TAVR is indicated. The purpose of this study was to explore inhospital and 1-year outcomes of patients undergoing alternative access TAVR through the transapical (TA) or transaortic (TAo) techniques in the United States.Clinical records of 4,953 patients undergoing TA (n = 4,085) or TAo (n = 868) TAVR from 2011 to 2014 in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS)/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry were linked to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services hospital claims. Inhospital and 1-year clinical outcomes were stratified by operative risk; and the risk-adjusted association between access route and mortality, stroke, and heart failure repeat hospitalization was explored.Mean age for all patients was 82.8 ± 6.8 years. The median STS predicted risk of mortality was significantly higher among patients undergoing TAo (8.8 versus 7.4, p0.001). When compared with TA, TAo was associated with an increased risk of unadjusted 30-day mortality (10.3% versus 8.8%) and 1-year mortality (30.3% versus 25.6%, p = 0.006). There were no significant differences between TAo and TA for inhospital stroke rate (2.2%), major vascular complications (0.3%), and 1-year heart failure rehospitalizations (15.7%). Examination of high-risk and inoperable subgroups showed that 1-year mortality was significantly higher for TAo patients classified as inoperable (p = 0.012).Patients undergoing TAo TAVR are older, more likely female, and have significantly higher STS predicted risk of mortality scores than patients operated on by TA access. There were no risk-adjusted differences between TA and TAo access in mortality, stroke, or readmission rates as long as 1 year after TAVR.

We applaud the recently published work of Hermiller et al. [(1)][1] in which they report a statistical risk model designed to predict mortality following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) using the CoreValve device (Medtronic, Edgewater, Maryland). The authors have appropriately

Prediction of operative risk is a critical step in decision making for cardiac surgery. Existing risk models may be improved by integrating a measure of frailty, such as 5-m gait speed, to better capture the heterogeneity of the older adult population.To determine the association of 5-m gait speed with operative mortality and morbidity in older adults undergoing cardiac surgery.A prospective cohort study was conducted from July 1, 2011, to March 31, 2014, at 109 centers participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database. The 5-m gait speed test was performed in 15 171 patients aged 60 years or older undergoing coronary artery bypass graft, aortic valve surgery, mitral valve surgery, or combined procedures.All-cause mortality during the first 30 days after surgery; secondarily, a composite outcome of mortality or major morbidity during the index hospitalization.Among the cohort of 15 171 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, the median age was 71 years and 4622 were female (30.5%). Compared with patients in the fastest gait speed tertile (1.00 m/s), operative mortality was increased for those in the middle tertile (0.83-1.00 m/s; odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% CI, 1.34-2.34) and slowest tertile (0.83 m/s; OR, 3.16; 95% CI, 2.31-4.33). After adjusting for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk of mortality and the surgical procedure, gait speed remained independently predictive of operative mortality (OR, 1.11 per 0.1-m/s decrease in gait speed; 95% CI, 1.07-1.16). Gait speed was also predictive of the composite outcome of mortality or major morbidity (OR, 1.03 per 0.1-m/s decrease in gait speed; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05). Addition of gait speed to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted risk resulted in a C statistic change of 0.005 and integrated discrimination improvement of 0.003.Gait speed is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes after cardiac surgery, with each 0.1-m/s decrease conferring an 11% relative increase in mortality. Gait speed can be used to refine estimates of operative risk, to support decision-making and, since incremental value is modest when used as a sole criterion for frailty, to screen older adults who could benefit from further assessment.