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Cancer immunotherapy has led to significant therapeutic progress in the treatment of metastatic and formerly untreatable tumors. However, drug response rates are variable and often only a subgroup of patients will show durable response to a treatment. Biomarkers that help to select those patients that will benefit the most from immunotherapy are thus of crucial importance. Here, we aim to identify such biomarkers by investigating the tumor microenvironment, i.e., the interplay between different cell types like immune cells, stromal cells and malignant cells within the tumor and developed a computational method that determines spatial tumor infiltration phenotypes. Our method is based on spatial point pattern analysis of immunohistochemically stained colorectal cancer tumor tissue and accounts for the intra-tumor heterogeneity of immune infiltration. We show that, compared to base-line models, tumor infiltration phenotypes provide significant additional support for the prediction of established biomarkers in a colorectal cancer patient cohort (n = 80). Integration of tumor infiltration phenotypes with genetic and genomic data from the same patients furthermore revealed significant associations between spatial infiltration patterns and common mutations in colorectal cancer and gene expression signatures. Based on these associations, we computed novel gene signatures that allow one to predict spatial tumor infiltration patterns from gene expression data only and validated this approach in a separate dataset from the Cancer Genome Atlas.

Motivation Recent imaging technologies allow for high-throughput tracking of cells as they migrate, divide, express fluorescent markers and change their morphology. The interpretation of these data requires unbiased, efficient statistical methods that model the dynamics of cell phenotypes. Results We introduce treeHFM, a probabilistic model which generalizes the theory of hidden Markov models to tree structured data. While accounting for the entire genealogy of a cell, treeHFM categorizes cells according to their primary phenotypic features. It models all relevant events in a cell's life, including cell division, and thereby enables the analysis of event order and cell fate heterogeneity. Simulations show higher accuracy in predicting correct state labels when modeling the more complex, tree-shaped dependency of samples over standard HMM modeling. Applying treeHFM to time lapse images of hematopoietic progenitor cell differentiation, we demonstrate that progenitor cells undergo a well-ordered sequence of differentiation events. Availability and implementation The treeHFM is implemented in C++. We provide wrapper functions for the programming languages R (CRAN package, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=treeHFM) and Matlab (available at Mathworks Central, http://se.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/57575-treehfml).

Functionally distinct plasmacytoid and conventional dendritic cells (pDC and cDC) shape innate and adaptive immunity. They are derived from common dendritic cell progenitors (CDPs) in the murine bone marrow, which give rise to CD11c(+) MHCII- precursors with early commitment to DC subpopulations. In this study, we dissect pDC development from CDP into an ordered sequence of differentiation events by monitoring the expression of CD11c, MHC class II, Siglec H and CCR9 in CDP cultures by continuous single cell imaging and tracking. Analysis of CDP genealogies revealed a stepwise differentiation of CDPs into pDCs in a part of the CDP colonies. This developmental pathway involved an early CD11c(+) SiglecH(-) pre-DC stage and a Siglec H+ CCR9(low) precursor stage, which was followed rapidly by upregulation of CCR9 indicating final pDC differentiation. In the majority of the remaining CDP pedigrees however the Siglec H+ CCR9(low) precursor state was maintained for several generations. Thus, although a fraction of CDPs transits through precursor stages rapidly to give rise to a first wave of pDCs, the majority of CDP progeny differentiate more slowly and give rise to longer lived precursor cells which are poised to differentiate on demand.

Motivation: Cell fate decisions have a strong stochastic component. The identification of the underlying mechanisms therefore requires a rigorous statistical analysis of large ensembles of single cells that were tracked and phenotyped over time. Results: We introduce a probabilistic framework for testing elementary hypotheses on dynamic cell behavior using time-lapse cell-imaging data. Factor graphs, probabilistic graphical models, are used to properly account for cell lineage and cell phenotype information. Our model is applied to time-lapse movies of murine granulocyte-macrophage progenitor (GMP) cells. It decides between competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of their differentiation. Our results theoretically substantiate previous experimental observations that lineage instruction, not selection is the cause for the differentiation of GMP cells into mature monocytes or neutrophil granulocytes.