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Background Optimal risk stratification of unsuspected pulmonary embolism (UPE) in ambulatory cancer patients (ACPs) remains unclear. Existing clinical predictive rules (CPRs) are derived from retrospective databases and have limitations. The UPE registry is a prospective international registry with pre-specified characteristics of ACPs with a recent UPE. The aim of this study was to assess the utility of risk factors captured in the UPE registry in predicting proximate (30-, 90- and 180-day) mortality and how they performed when applied to an existing CPR. Objectives To evaluate risk factors for proximate mortality, overall survival, recurrent venous thromboembolism and major bleeding, in the patients enrolled in the UPE registry cohort. Methods Data from the 695 ACPs in this registry were subjected to multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify predictors independently associated with proximate mortality and overall survival. The most consistent predictors were applied to the Hull CPR, an existing 5-point prediction rule. Results The most consistent predictors of mortality were patient-reported respiratory symptoms within 14 days before, and ECOG performance status at the time of UPE. These predictors applied to the Hull-CPR produced a consistent correlation with proximate mortality and overall survival (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.70 [95% CI 0.63, 077], AUC = 0.65 [95% CI 0.60, 070], AUC = 0.64 [95% CI 0.59, 068], and AUC = 0.61, 95% CI 0.57, 0.65, respectively). Conclusion In ACPs with UPE, ECOG performance status logged contemporaneously to the UPE diagnosis and respiratory symptoms prior to UPE diagnosis can stratify mortality risk. When applied to the HULL-CPR these risk predictors confirmed the risk stratification clusters of low-intermediate and high-risk for proximate mortality as seen in the original derivation cohort.

PURPOSE Pulmonary embolism is incidentally diagnosed in up to 5% of patients with cancer on routine imaging scans. The clinical relevance and optimal therapy for incidental pulmonary embolism, particularly distal clots, is unclear. The aim of the current study was to assess current treatment strategies and the long-term clinical outcomes of incidentally detected pulmonary embolism in patients with cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS We conducted an international, prospective, observational cohort study between October 22, 2012, and December 31, 2017. Unselected adults with active cancer and a recent diagnosis of incidental pulmonary embolism were eligible. Outcomes were recurrent venous thromboembolism, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality during 12 months of follow-up. Outcome events were centrally adjudicated. RESULTS A total of 695 patients were included. Mean age was 66 years and 58% of patients were male. Most frequent cancer types were colorectal (21%) and lung cancer (15%). Anticoagulant therapy was initiated in 675 patients (97%), of whom 600 (89%) were treated with low-molecular-weight heparin. Recurrent venous thromboembolism occurred in 41 patients (12-month cumulative incidence, 6.0%; 95% CI, 4.4% to 8.1%), major bleeding in 39 patients (12-month cumulative incidence, 5.7%; 95% CI, 4.1% to 7.7%), and 283 patients died (12-month cumulative incidence, 43%; 95% CI, 39% to 46%). The 12-month incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism was 6.4% in those with subsegmental pulmonary embolism compared with 6.0% in those with more proximal pulmonary embolism (subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.37 to 2.9; P = .93). CONCLUSION In patients with cancer with incidental pulmonary embolism, risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism is significant despite anticoagulant treatment. Patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism seemed to have a risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism comparable to that of patients with more proximal clots.