Search

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation., Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.

National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years., 世界各国の2050年の温室効果ガス削減目標を分析するための国際的な研究フレームワークの提案. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-05-28., Pathways to global climate targets. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-06-01.

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.

Energy-intensive industries are difficult to decarbonize. They present a major challenge to the emerging countries that are currently in the midst of rapid industrialization and urbanization. This is also applicable to Japan, a developed economy, which retains a large presence in heavy industries compared to other developed economies. In this paper, the results obtained from four energy-economic and integrated assessment models were utilized to explore climate mitigation scenarios of Japan’s industries by 2050. The results reveal that: (i) Japan’s share of emissions from industries may increase by 2050, highlighting the difficulties in achieving industrial decarbonization under the prevailing industrial policies; (ii) the emission reduction in steelmaking will play a key role, which can be achieved by the implementation of carbon capture and expansion of hydrogen technologies after 2040; (iii) even under mitigation scenarios, electrification and the use of biomass use in Japan’s industries will continue to be limited in 2050, suggesting a low possibility of large-scale fuel switching or end-use decarbonization. After stocktaking of the current industry-sector modeling in integrated assessment models, we found that such limited uptake of cleaner fuels in the results may be related to the limited interests of both participating models and industry stakeholders in Japan, specifically the interests on the technologies that are still at the early stage of development but with high reduction potential. It is crucial to upgrade research and development activities to enable future industry-sector mitigation as well as to improve modeling capabilities of energy end-use technologies in integrated assessment models. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-00905-2.

This study evaluates the effect of climate uncertainties on the transformations in the global energy system needed for realizing mitigation targets in the long term. Climate uncertainties affect the amount of allowable emissions from human activities that are consistent with a given climate target, and, thus, the range of necessary energy transformations. A range of emission scenarios consistent with intermediate (RCP4.5) and stringent (RCP2.6) mitigation targets are analyzed with an integrated assessment model (IAM). Emission scenarios are generated with an earth system model of intermediate complexity, which evaluated the variability of allowable carbon emissions due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle and its feedbacks. The results showed that even when climate uncertainties are reflected at different scales across energy supply components, achieving mitigation targets needs partial decarbonization of supply, scale up of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and decreased energy consumption. The effect of climate uncertainties was largest for coal without CCS (up to 100% in 2100 compared to the central scenario) and bioenergy with CCS (up to 23% in 2100 compared to the central scenario). Land for bioenergy feedstocks, and the deployment of unmanaged lands for other purposes also had a considerable variation (10–20% in 2100). Compared to the uncertainty in socio-economic factors quantified in IAMs, the variation induced by the climate uncertainties was small. In contrast to previous IAM studies, the results herein explicitly described how climate-related uncertainties affect the global energy system, based on scenarios incorporating a robust approach for covering a wide scope of uncertainties from a climate model.

In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2.

Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 50%-85% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

The curtailment and storage associated with the fluctuation of electricity supplied by variable renewable energy (VRE) may limit its penetration into electricity systems. Therefore, these factors need to be explicitly treated in the integrated assessment models (IAMs). This study improves the representation of curtailment and storage of VRE in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. With the data generated from an hourly power sector model, curtailment and storage of VRE electricity are treated as a function of the shares of solar and wind in the electricity mix. This relationship is incorporated into a CGE model and we also updated the VRE costs and resource potential. The results show that with such improvement, by 2100, in a 450 ppm atmospheric CO 2 equivalent concentration (henceforth ppm) scenario, some electricity generated from VRE is either curtailed (2.1%) or needs to be stored (2.9%). In contrast, if VRE fluctuation is not considered, the long-term global economic cost of carbon mitigation is significantly underestimated (by 52%) in the same scenario. Conversely, updating the VRE costs and resource potential leads to a decrease in mitigation costs. Our simulation implies that the fluctuation of VRE cannot be ignored and needs to be incorporated into CGE models. Moreover, in addition to storage with batteries, many other options are available to reduce curtailment of VRE. The top-down type CGE model has limitations to fully incorporate all aspects due to its limited spatial, temporal, and technological resolution.

This study quantifies the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium). SSP3 (regional rivalry) forms the main focus of the study, which is supposed to face high challenges both in mitigation and adaptation. The AIM model has been selected as the model to quantify the SSP3 marker scenario, a representative case illustrating a particular narrative. Multiple parameter assumptions in AIM/CGE were differentiated across the SSPs for quantification. We confirm that SSP3 quantitative scenarios outcomes are consistent with its narrative. Moreover, four key features of SSP3 are observed. First, as SSP3 was originally designed to contain a high level of challenges to mitigation, mitigation costs in SSP3 were relatively high. This results from the combination of high greenhouse gas emissions in the baseline (no climate mitigation policy) scenario and low mitigative capacity. Second, the climate forcing level in 2100 for the baseline scenarios of SSP3 was similar to that of SSP2, whereas CO 2 emissions in SSP3 are higher than those in SSP2. This is mainly due to high aerosol emissions in SSP3. A third feature was the high air pollutant emissions associated with weak implementation of air quality legislation and a high level of coal dependency. Fourth, forest area steadily decreases with a large expansion of cropland and pasture land. These characteristics indicate at least four potential uses for SSP3. First, SSP3 is useful for both IAM and impact, adaptation, vulnerability (IAV) analyses to present the worst-case scenario. Second, by comparing SSP2 and SSP3, IAV analyses can clarify the influences of socioeconomic elements under similar climatic conditions. Third, the high air pollutant emissions would be of interest to atmospheric chemistry climate modelers. Finally, in addition to climate change studies, many other environmental studies could benefit from the meaningful insights available from the large-scale land use change resulting in SSP3.

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect. Key policy insightsFor Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline. For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS. The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power. Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

Synthesizing and communicating knowledge on climate change to policymakers and stakeholders is often difficult due to the complexity and diversity of underlying research. As a “translation” instrument, we present the mipplot tool, an open-source R package that can be used to visualize data of long-term climate mitigation scenarios. With simple commands and under a user-friendly language platform, this tool generates plots in multiple languages for any scenario dataset following the data submission format of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium. The plots can be generated both by function call in R environment and by an interactive interface in a web browser environment, which offers greater flexibility of inputs and suits both experts and non-experts. Moreover, its capability of specifying aggregation rules and different display languages extends its applicability to a broader range of users.

This study assessed global onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas in terms of transmission losses and costs, and visibility (landscape impact) restrictions. Including this factor decreased the economic potential considerably depending on the level of supply cost considered (at least 37% and 16% for an economic potential below 10 and 14 US cents/kWh, respectively). Its importance compared to other factors was secondary below 15 US cents/kWh. At higher costs it was secondary only to land use, and was more important than economic and technical factors. The impact of this factor was mixed across all regions of the world, given the heterogeneity of wind resources in remote and proximal areas. Regions where available resources decreased the most included the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The supply cost chosen to evaluate the economic potential and uncertainties influencing the estimation of distance to the closest urban area are critical for the assessment. Neglecting the restrictions associated with integration into energy systems and social acceptability resulted in an overestimation of global onshore wind resources. These outcomes are fundamental for global climate policies because they help to clarify the limits of wind energy resource availability.

We quantified key factors affecting the penetration of global onshore wind energy by 2050. We analyzed a large set of scenarios by combining a wind resource model and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Five factors, including onshore wind resource potential, investment cost, balancing cost, transmission cost and climate change mitigation policy, were considered to generate 96 scenarios and regression analysis was used to assess relevance among the factors. We found that the strongest factors were resource potential and climate target, followed by wind power technology investment cost. Other factors, such as balancing and transmission costs, had relatively smaller impacts. World total onshore wind power in 2050 increases by 13.2 and 15.5 (41% and 49% of 2005 total power generation, respectively) EJ/year if wind potential rises from low to medium and high levels, respectively. Furthermore, 5.9, 17.8, and 24.3 EJ/year of additional wind power could be generated under climate targets of 650, 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. Moreover, reducing wind power technology investment cost would increase global wind power by another 9.2 EJ/year. The methodology can be extended to assess other mitigation technologies if the related data is available.

An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching the 2 °C level: one stayed at the 2 °C level, and the other cooled to the 1.5 °C level. Unlike the internationally coordinated model intercomparison projects, the scenarios were developed for a specific climatic model with emissions and land use scenarios consistent with socioeconomic projections from an integrated assessment model. The ESM output resulted in delayed realization of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets expected for 2100. The cumulative CO2 emissions for 2010−2100 (2300) were 358 (−53) GtCO2 in the 2 °C scenario and −337 (−936) GtCO2 in the 1.5 °C scenario. We examined the effect of overshooting on commonly used indicators related to surface air temperature, sea surface temperature and total ocean heat uptake. Global vegetation productivity at 2100 showed around a 5% increase in the 2 °C scenario without overshooting compared with the 1.5 °C scenario with overshooting, considered to be caused by more precipitation and stronger CO2 fertilization. A considerable difference was found between the two scenarios in terms of Arctic sea ice, whereas both scenarios indicated few corals would survive past the 21st century. The difference in steric sea level rise, reflecting total cumulative ocean heat uptake, between the two scenarios was

The palm oil industry potentially can be environmentally sustainable through utilizing the vast availability of biomass residues from palm oil mills as renewable energy sources. This work addresses the optimal operation of a combined bioenergy and solar PV distributed energy generation system to meet the electricity and heat demands of an eco-community comprising a palm oil mill and its surrounding residential community. A multiperiod mixed-integer linear programming planning and scheduling model is formulated on an hourly basis that optimally selects the power generation mix from among available biomass, biogas, and solar energy resources with consideration for energy storage and load shifting. A multiscenario approach is employed that considers scenarios in the form of many possible weather conditions and various energy profiles under varying mill operation modes and residential electricity consumption. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a realistic case study for a palm oil mill in the Iskandar Malaysia economic development region. The computational results indicate that biomass-based resource is the preferred renewable energy to be implemented due to the high cost associated with solar PV. As well, load shifting and energy storage can be feasibly deployed for demand peak shaving particularly for solar PV systems.