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OBJECTIVE:The Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced reforms to mitigate adverse selection into and within the individual insurance market. We examined the traits and predicted medical spending of enrollees in California post-ACA. DATA SOURCES:Survey of 2,103 enrollees in individual market plans, on- and off-exchange, in 2014. STUDY DESIGN:We compared actual versus potential participants using data from the 2014 California Health Interview Survey on respondents who were individually insured or uninsured. We predicted annual medical spending for each group using age, sex, self-rated health, body mass index, smoking status, and income. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Average predicted spending was similar for actual ($3,377, 95 percent CI [$3,280-$3,474]) and potential participants ($3,257 [$3,060-$3,454]); however, some vulnerable subgroups were underrepresented. On- versus off-exchange enrollees differed in sociodemographic and health traits with modest differences in spending ($3,448 [$3,330-$3,565] vs. $3,175 [$3,012-$3,338]). CONCLUSIONS:We did not find evidence of selection into the overall insurance pool in 2014; however, differences by exchange status reflect the importance of including off-exchange enrollees in analyses and the pool for risk adjustment. California's post-ACA individual market has been a relative success, highlighting the importance of state policies and outreach efforts to encourage participation in the market.

ObjectiveVital signs are critical markers of illness severity in the emergency department (ED). Providers need to understand the abnormal vital signs in older adults that are problematic. We hypothesized that in patients age > 65 years discharged from the ED, there are abnormal vital signs that are associated with an admission to an inpatient bed within 7 days of discharge.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a regional integrated health system of members age > 65 years during the years 2009 to 2010. We used univariate contingency tables to assess the relationship between hospital admission within 7 days of discharge and vital sign (including systolic blood pressure [sBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, and pulse oximetry [SpO2 ] values measured closest to discharge) using standard thresholds for abnormal and thresholds derived from the study data.ResultsOf 104,025 ED discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) were followed by inpatient admission within 7 days. Vital signs had a greater odds of admission beyond a single cutoff. The vital signs with at least twice the odds of admission were sBP  101 beats/min (OR = 2.00 95% CI = 1.75-2.29), body temperature > 37.3°C (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.90-2.41), and pulse oximetry

Background and objectiveWe directly compared sleep apnoea (SA) rates and risk of cardiovascular and mortality outcomes among SA patients with resistant hypertension (RH) and non-RH within a large diverse hypertension population.MethodsA retrospective cohort study between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2010 among hypertensive adults (age ≥ 18 years) was performed within an integrated health system. Rates of SA in RH and non-RH were determined. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to calculate OR for SA. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes between SA in RH versus SA in non-RH adjusting for age, gender, race, BMI, chronic kidney disease and other comorbidities.ResultsSA was identified in 33 682 (7.2%) from 470 386 hypertensive individuals. SA in RH accounted for 5806 (9.6%) compared to SA in non-RH 27 876 individuals (6.8%). Multivariable OR (95% CI) for SA was 1.16 (1.12, 1.19), 3.57 (3.47, 3.66) and 2.20 (2.15, 2.25) for RH versus non-RH, BMI ≥ 30, and males, respectively. Compared to SA in non-RH individuals, SA in RH had a multivariable adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.24 (1.13, 1.36), 1.43 (1.28, 1.61), 0.98 (0.85, 1.12) and 1.04 (0.95, 1.14) for ischaemic heart event (IHE), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and mortality, respectively.ConclusionWe observed a modest increase in likelihood for SA among RH compared to non-RH patients. Risks for IHE and CHF were higher for SA in RH compared to SA in non-RH patients; however, there were no differences in risk for stroke and mortality.

Objectives: We evaluated an alternative way to implement guidelines using an automated risk calculator and risk-based decision tool to calculate patients' risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and recommend therapies. We compared such an approach with traditional guidelines., Study Design: A retrospective cohort study of 1,506,109 Kaiser Permanente Southern California members 35 years or older., Methods: We estimated 3-year risks of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke using an independently developed risk calculator, then graphically compared risks with observed outcomes. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve to assess discrimination, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to test fit. We compared the characteristics and outcomes of populations identified for medication therapy by the risk-based decision tool and traditional guidelines using bivariate statistics., Results: A risk score was obtained in 72% (1,082,158) of members. The risk calculator was fairly good in discrimination: the area under the curve was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.770-0.779) for myocardial infarction and 0.805 (95% CI, 0.801-0.808) for stroke. Predictiveness and fit was good based on graphical analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow P < .0001. The risk-based decision tool identified high-risk patients for treatment who were not identified by traditional guidelines (3.80% of all those identified for statins, 3.04% for antihypertensives), as well as low-risk patients who were identified by guidelines (3.80% for statins, 2.51% for antihypertensives)., Conclusions: The risk calculator provided risk estimates in most patients and demonstrated fairly good discrimination and predictiveness. The risk-based decision tool identified high-risk patients for treatment not identified by traditional guidelines, as well as low-risk patients for whom treatment may be unnecessary.