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In the context of prominent energy crisis, photovoltaic power (PV) generation has received increasing attention, then accurate PV generation forecasting is crucial for ensuring the smooth operation of power stations. However, existing research is insufficient in comprehensively analyzing the impact of PV generation volatility. To fill the gaps and enhance the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a new hybrid forecasting method. We first introduce the Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) method to process the data and enhance the data stability, and use Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and Random Forests (RF) for feature selection to improve the quality of input data. Then we use Attention mechanism and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) layer to optimize Bi-directional Gate Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) model and form a new hybrid model. Finally, based on the Bagging algorithm, we use ensemble learning to further optimize the hybrid BiGRU model to enhance the depth and performance. The proposed method is validated through case analysis results from two different locations, Xuhui District in Shanghai, China and the DKASC area in Alice Springs, Australia. The results demonstrate that, compared with other models, the developed method exhibits exceptional prediction performance and effectively enhances the accuracy of PV generation forecasting. Keywords : photovoltaic power generation; Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing; feature selection; ensemble learning; Bi-directional Gate Recurrent Unit. • LOWESS smoothing technology is used to reduce the variability of PV generation data. • Pearson correlation coefficient and Random Forest are used to for extract feature. • Attention mechanism and CNN layer are used to optimize BiGRU model. • Two BiGRU layers are stacked to improve the depth and prediction performance. • Ensemble learning is introduced to further optimize the hybrid BiGRU model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a powerful tool of Demand Response (DR) techniques in smart grid market, Real-time Pricing (RTP) may optimize the electricity consumption pattern of users and improve the efficiency of electricity market. In this paper, a multi-leader-follower Stackelberg Game (SG) based on RTP is established to model the strategic interaction behavior between multiple electricity retailers and multiple users while simultaneously considering the power load uncertainty of users and the price competition among electricity retailers. In the game model, electricity retailers aim to seek their revenue maximization while the optimal power consumption competition among the users is taken into account. Lagrange multiplier method is utilized to solve the Nash Equilibriums (NE) of two non-cooperative games, and the closed-form optimal solution is obtained, then the Stackelberg Equilibrium (SE) consisting of the optimal real-time prices of electricity retailers and the power consumption of users is given. Finally, the numerical analysis results verify that the proposed scheme can reduce the real-time electricity price and increase the users' satisfaction under feasible constraint, which shows the effectiveness and better performance of proposed RTP scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the worst-case regret portfolio optimization problem when the distributions of the asset returns are uncertain. In general, the solution to this problem is NP hard and approximation methods that minimise the difference between the maximum return and the sum of each portfolio return are often proposed. Applying the duality of semi-infinite programming, the worst-case regret portfolio optimization problem with uncertain distributions can be equivalently reformulated to a linear optimization problem, and the established solution approaches for linear optimization can then be applied. An example of a portfolio optimization problem is provided to show the efficiency of our method and the results demonstrate that our method can satisfy the portfolio risk diversification property under the uncertain distributions of the returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]