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Summary: Background: Genetic variants in COL4A1 and COL4A2 (encoding collagen IV alpha chain 1/2) occur in genetic and sporadic forms of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD), a leading cause of stroke, dementia and intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). However, the molecular mechanisms of CSVD with ICH and COL4A1/COL4A2 variants remain obscure. Methods: Vascular function and molecular investigations in mice with a Col4a1 missense mutation and heterozygous Col4a2 knock-out mice were combined with analysis of human brain endothelial cells harboring COL4A1/COL4A2 mutations, and brain tissue of patients with sporadic CSVD with ICH. Findings: Col4a1 missense mutations cause early-onset CSVD independent of hypertension, with enhanced vasodilation of small arteries due to endothelial dysfunction, vascular wall thickening and reduced stiffness. Mechanistically, the early-onset dysregulated endothelium-dependent hyperpolarization (EDH) is due to reduced collagen IV levels with elevated activity and levels of endothelial Ca2+-sensitive K+ channels. This results in vasodilation via the Na/K pump in vascular smooth muscle cells. Our data support this endothelial dysfunction preceding development of CSVD-associated ICH is due to increased cytoplasmic Ca2+ levels in endothelial cells. Moreover, cerebral blood vessels of patients with sporadic CSVD show genotype-dependent mechanisms with wall thickening and lower collagen IV levels in those harboring common non-coding COL4A1/COL4A2 risk alleles. Interpretation: COL4A1/COL4A2 variants act in genetic and sporadic CSVD with ICH via dysregulated EDH, and altered vascular wall thickness and biomechanics due to lower collagen IV levels and/or mutant collagen IV secretion. These data highlight EDH and collagen IV levels as potential treatment targets. Funding: MRC, Wellcome Trust, BHF.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Evidence suggests that higher C‐reactive protein (CRP) is associated with lower risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Whether interleukin (IL)‐6 signaling, an active pharmacological target upstream of CRP, is associated with these amyloid‐related pathologies remains unknown. METHODS We used 26 CRP‐lowering variants near the IL‐6 receptor gene to perform Mendelian randomization analyses for AD (111,326 cases, 677,663 controls) and ICH (1545 cases, 1481 controls). We explored the effect of genetically proxied IL‐6 signaling on serum, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and brain proteome (971 individuals). RESULTS Genetically upregulated IL‐6 receptor‐mediated signaling was associated with lower risk of AD (OR per increment in serum logCRP levels: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79–0.95) and lobar ICH (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.09–0.89). We also found associations with 312, 77, and 79 brain, CSF, and plasma proteins, respectively, some of which were previously implicated in amyloid‐clearing mechanisms. DISCUSSION Genetic data support that CRP‐lowering through variation in the gene encoding IL‐6 receptor may be associated with amyloid‐related outcomes. Highlights Genetic variants proxying IL‐6 inhibition are associated with AD and lobar ICH risk. The variants are also associated with amyloid clearing‐related proteomic changes. Whether pharmacologic IL‐6 inhibition is linked to AD or lobar ICH merits further study.

IntroductionThe 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) is a novel tool designed to motivate individuals and care providers to take action to reduce the risk of stroke and dementia by encouraging lifestyle changes. Given that late-life depression is increasingly recognized to share risk factors with stroke and dementia, and is an important clinical endpoint for brain health, we tested the hypothesis that a higher BCS is associated with a reduced incidence of future depression. Additionally, we examined its association with a brain health composite outcome comprising stroke, dementia, and late-life depression.MethodsThe BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank baseline evaluation in participants with complete data on BCS items. Associations of BCS with the risk of subsequent incident late-life depression and the composite brain health outcome were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. These models were adjusted for age at baseline and sex assigned at birth.ResultsA total of 363,323 participants were included in this analysis, with a median BCS at baseline of 12 (IQR: 11-14). There were 6,628 incident cases of late-life depression during a median follow-up period of 13 years. Each five-point increase in baseline BCS was associated with a 33% lower risk of incident late-life depression (95% CI: 29%-36%) and a 27% lower risk of the incident composite outcome (95% CI: 24%-30%).DiscussionThese data further demonstrate the shared risk factors across depression, dementia, and stroke. The findings suggest that a higher BCS, indicative of healthier lifestyle choices, is significantly associated with a lower incidence of late-life depression and a composite brain health outcome. Additional validation of the BCS is warranted to assess the weighting of its components, its motivational aspects, and its acceptability and adaptability in routine clinical care worldwide.

Background Educational attainment is a critical social determinant of health that impacts the risk and severity of incident ischaemic stroke, but less is known of its impact on intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). The objective of this study is to determine whether educational attainment is associated with ICH severity and short-term prognosis.Methods Subjects were enrolled in a prospectively ascertained cohort with primary ICH from 1994 to 2020 at Massachusetts General Hospital. Educational attainment, medical history of ICH risk factors, ICH volume and ICH score were obtained on admission. The primary outcomes were ICH volume and the ICH score.Results Of 2539 eligible patients eligible, the median age of the sample was 74 (IQR 64–82) and 2159 (85%) had high school-only education. 1655 (65%) presented with an ICH volume less than or equal to 30 mL and 1744 (69%) presented with an ICH score less than 3. In multivariable logistic regression analyses controlling for age, income, employment history and prestroke diagnoses of hypertension and coronary artery disease, patients with high school-only education were more likely to have an ICH volume greater than 30 mL compared with college diplomates (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.08) and more likely to have an ICH score of 3 or greater compared with college diplomates (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.77 to 3.19).Discussion Prestroke educational attainment is independently associated with ICH severity and short-term prognosis, with lower educational attainment associated with larger ICH volumes and higher ICH scores. Future studies should examine how educational attainment impacts exposure to traditional clinical risk factors.

IntroductionThe 21-point Brain Care Score (BCS) was developed through a modified Delphi process in partnership with practitioners and patients to promote behavior changes and lifestyle choices in order to sustainably reduce the risk of dementia and stroke. We aimed to assess the associations of the BCS with risk of incident dementia and stroke.MethodsThe BCS was derived from the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) baseline evaluation for participants aged 40–69 years, recruited between 2006–2010. Associations of BCS and risk of subsequent incident dementia and stroke were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions, adjusted for sex assigned at birth and stratified by age groups at baseline.ResultsThe BCS (median: 12; IQR:11–14) was derived for 398,990 UKB participants (mean age: 57; females: 54%). There were 5,354 incident cases of dementia and 7,259 incident cases of stroke recorded during a median follow-up of 12.5 years. A five-point higher BCS at baseline was associated with a 59% (95%CI: 40-72%) lower risk of dementia among participants aged 59 years. A five-point higher BCS was associated with a 48% (95%CI: 39-56%) lower risk of stroke among participants aged 59.DiscussionThe BCS has clinically relevant and statistically significant associations with risk of dementia and stroke in approximately 0.4 million UK people. Future research includes investigating the feasibility, adaptability and implementation of the BCS for patients and providers worldwide.

Background Genetic and nongenetic factors account for the association of family history with disease risk. Comparing adopted and nonadopted individuals provides an opportunity to disentangle those factors. Methods and Results We examined associations between family history of stroke and heart disease with incident stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) in 495 640 UK Biobank participants (mean age, 56.5 years; 55% women) stratified by childhood adoption status (5747 adoptees). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) per affected family member, and for polygenic risk scores in Cox models adjusted for baseline age and sex. A total of 12 518 strokes and 23 923 MIs occurred over a 13‐year follow‐up. In nonadoptees, family history of stroke and heart disease was associated with increased stroke and MI risk, with the strongest association of family history of stroke for incident stroke (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12–1.19]) and family history of heart disease for incident MI (HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.45–1.50]). In adoptees, family history of stroke associated with incident stroke (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.06–1.86]), but family history of heart disease was not associated with incident MI (P>0.5). Polygenic risk scores showed strong disease‐specific associations in both groups. In nonadoptees, the stroke polygenic risk score mediated 6% risk between family history of stroke and incident stroke, and the MI polygenic risk score mediated 13% risk between family history of heart disease and incident MI. Conclusions Family history of stroke and heart disease increases risk for their respective conditions. Family history of stroke contains substantial potentially modifiable nongenetic risk, indicating a need for novel prevention strategies, whereas family history of heart disease represents predominantly genetic risk.

Abstract Background Interleukin 6 (IL-6) signaling is being investigated as a therapeutic target for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). While changes in circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) are used as a marker of IL-6 signaling, it is not known whether there is effect heterogeneity in relation to baseline hsCRP levels or other cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to explore the association of genetically predicted IL-6 signaling with CVD risk across populations stratified by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors. Methods Among 397,060 White British UK Biobank participants without known CVD at baseline, we calculated a genetic risk score for IL-6 receptor (IL-6R)-mediated signaling, composed of 26 variants at the IL6R gene locus. We then applied linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses exploring associations with a combined endpoint of incident coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease, aortic aneurysm, and cardiovascular death stratifying by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors. Results The study participants (median age 59 years, 53.9% females) were followed-up for a median of 8.8 years, over which time a total of 46,033 incident cardiovascular events occurred. Genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling activity was associated with higher CVD risk (hazard ratio per 1-mg/dL increment in absolute hsCRP levels: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06–1.17). The increase in CVD risk was linearly related to baseline absolute hsCRP levels. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association of genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling with CVD risk when stratifying the population by sex, age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, or systolic blood pressure, but there was evidence of greater associations in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dL. Conclusions Any benefit of inhibiting IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction is likely to be proportional to absolute reductions in hsCRP levels. Therapeutic inhibition of IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction should therefore prioritize those individuals with the highest baseline levels of hsCRP.

Cerebral small vessel disease is highly prevalent, particularly in marginalized communities, and its incidence is expected to increase given the aging global population. Cerebral small vessel disease contributes to risk for stroke, vascular cognitive impairment and dementia, late‐life depression, and gait disorders. A growing body of evidence suggests that adverse outcomes, including cerebral small vessel disease, caused by traditional cardiovascular risk factors are at least partly mediated by epigenetic changes, some of them already beginning during fetal development. Societal and health care access inequities, summarized under the umbrella term social determinants of health, put a higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors on marginalized populations and expose them to an increased risk for adverse outcomes. Social epigenetics has begun to deliver solid evidence that social determinants of health lead to distinct epigenetic signatures that potentially mediate the biological effect of environmental exposures on cardiovascular risk factors. Here, we provide a review of the most recent advances in the epigenetics of cerebral small vessel disease risk factors and social determinants of health and call for research efforts combining insights from both fields to reach a deeper understanding of the causal pathways, ultimately facilitating discovery of new treatment targets for a disease whose burden is magnified by existing health disparities.

BackgroundIntracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) disproportionally affects underserved populations, and coincides with risk factors for cardiovascular events and cognitive decline after ICH. We investigated associations between social determinants of health and management of blood pressure (BP), hyperlipidemia, diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), and hearing impairment before and after ICH hospitalization.MethodsSurvivors of the Massachusetts General Hospital longitudinal ICH study between 2016 and 2019 who received healthcare at least 6 months after ICH were analyzed. Measurements of BP, LDL and HbA1c and their management in the year surrounding ICH and referrals for sleep studies and audiology up to 6 months after ICH were gathered from electronic health records. The US-wide area deprivation index (ADI) was used as proxy for social determinants of health.ResultsThe study included 234 patients (mean 71 years, 42% female). BP measurements were performed in 109 (47%) before ICH, LDL measurements were performed in 165 (71%), and HbA1c measurements in 154 (66%) patients before or after ICH. 27/59 (46%) with off-target LDL and 3/12 (25%) with off-target HbA1c were managed appropriately. Of those without history of OSA or hearing impairment before ICH, 47/207 (23%) were referred for sleep studies and 16/212 (8%) to audiology. Higher ADI was associated with lower odds of BP, LDL, and HbA1c measurement prior to ICH [OR 0.94 (0.90–0.99), 0.96 (0.93–0.99), and 0.96 (0.93–0.99), respectively, per decile] but not with management during or after hospitalization.ConclusionSocial determinants of health are associated with pre-ICH management of cerebrovascular risk factors. More than 25% of patients were not assessed for hyperlipidemia and diabetes in the year surrounding ICH hospitalization, and less than half of those with off-target values received treatment intensification. Few patients were evaluated for OSA and hearing impairment, both common among ICH survivors. Future trials should evaluate whether using the ICH hospitalization to systematically address co-morbidities can improve long-term outcomes.

IntroductionLong-term cardiac monitoring studies have unveiled low-burden, occult atrial fibrillation (AF) in some patients with otherwise cryptogenic stroke (CS), but occult AF is also found in some individuals without a stroke history and in patients with stroke of a known cause (KS). Clinical management would be aided by estimates of how often occult AF in a patient with CS is causal vs. incidental.MethodsThrough a systematic search, we identified all case–control and cohort studies applying identical long-term monitoring techniques to both patients with CS and KS. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis across these studies to determine the best estimate of the differential frequency of occult AF in CS and KS among all patients and across age subgroups. We then applied Bayes' theorem to determine the probability that occult AF is causal or incidental.ResultsThe systematic search identified three case–control and cohort studies enrolling 560 patients (315 CS, 245 KS). Methods of long-term monitoring were implantable loop recorder in 31.0%, extended external monitoring in 67.9%, and both in 1.2%. Crude cumulative rates of AF detection were CS 47/315 (14.9%) vs. KS 23/246 (9.3%). In the formal meta-analysis, the summary odds ratio for occult AF in CS vs. KS in all patients was 1.80 (95% CI, 1.05–3.07), p = 0.03. With the application of Bayes' theorem, the corresponding probabilities indicated that, when present, occult AF in patients with CS is causal in 41.2% (95% CI, 15.5–77.7%) of patients. Analyses stratified by age suggested that detected occult AF in patients with CS was causal in 62.3% (95 CI, 0–87.1%) of patients under the age of 65 years and 28.5% (95 CI, 0–63.7%) of patients aged 65 years and older but estimates had limited precision.ConclusionCurrent evidence is preliminary, but it indicates that in cryptogenic stroke when occult AF is found, it is causal in about 41.2% of patients. These findings suggest that anticoagulation therapy may be beneficial to prevent recurrent stroke in a substantial proportion of patients with CS found to have occult AF.

Abstract Electronic health record (EHR) datasets are statistically powerful but are subject to ascertainment bias and missingness. Using the Mass General Brigham multi-institutional EHR, we approximated a community-based cohort by sampling patients receiving longitudinal primary care between 2001-2018 (Community Care Cohort Project [C3PO], n = 520,868). We utilized natural language processing (NLP) to recover vital signs from unstructured notes. We assessed the validity of C3PO by deploying established risk models for myocardial infarction/stroke and atrial fibrillation. We then compared C3PO to Convenience Samples including all individuals from the same EHR with complete data, but without a longitudinal primary care requirement. NLP reduced the missingness of vital signs by 31%. NLP-recovered vital signs were highly correlated with values derived from structured fields (Pearson r range 0.95–0.99). Atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction/stroke incidence were lower and risk models were better calibrated in C3PO as opposed to the Convenience Samples (calibration error range for myocardial infarction/stroke: 0.012–0.030 in C3PO vs. 0.028–0.046 in Convenience Samples; calibration error for atrial fibrillation 0.028 in C3PO vs. 0.036 in Convenience Samples). Sampling patients receiving regular primary care and using NLP to recover missing data may reduce bias and maximize generalizability of EHR research.

Abstract Background Cognitive impairment and depressive symptoms are highly prevalent after Intracerebral Hemorrhage (ICH). We leveraged Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) to identify profiles for cognitive decline and depression onset after ICH. We also investigated differences in clinical, genetic and neuroimaging characteristics across patients’ profiles. Methods We analyzed data from the ICH study conducted at Massachusetts General Hospital between January 1998 and December 2019. We collected information from electronical health records, follow-up interviews, CT and MRI imaging, and APOE genotype. We conducted LPA and multinomial logistic regression analyses to: 1) identify distinct profiles for cognitive decline and depression onset after ICH; 2) identify clinical, neuroimaging and genetic factors predicting individuals’ likelihood to express a specific profile. Results We followed 784 ICH survivors for a median of 45.8 months. We identified four distinct profiles in cognitive and depressive symptoms after ICH: low depression and dementia risk, early-onset depression and dementia, late-onset depression and dementia, high depression with low dementia risk. Cerebral small vessel disease severity and APOE genotype were specifically associated with the late-onset profile (both p

Background Models predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) risk, such as Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF (CHARGE‐AF), have not performed as well in electronic health records. Natural language processing (NLP) may improve models by using narrative electronic health record text. Methods and Results From a primary care network, we included patients aged ≥65 years with visits between 2003 and 2013 in development (n=32 960) and internal validation cohorts (n=13 992). An external validation cohort from a separate network from 2015 to 2020 included 39 051 patients. Model features were defined using electronic health record codified data and narrative data with NLP. We developed 2 models to predict 5‐year AF incidence using (1) codified+NLP data and (2) codified data only and evaluated model performance. The analysis included 2839 incident AF cases in the development cohort and 1057 and 2226 cases in internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. The C‐statistic was greater (P

Background: Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is the gold standard for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) diagnosis. CMR-derived LV mass can be estimated using proprietary algorithms (eg, InlineVF), but their accuracy and availability may be limited. Objective: To develop an open-source deep learning model to estimate CMR-derived LV mass. Methods: Within participants of the UK Biobank prospective cohort undergoing CMR, we trained 2 convolutional neural networks to estimate LV mass. The first (ML4Hreg) performed regression informed by manually labeled LV mass (available in 5065 individuals), while the second (ML4Hseg) performed LV segmentation informed by InlineVF (version D13A) contours. We compared ML4Hreg, ML4Hseg, and InlineVF against manually labeled LV mass within an independent holdout set using Pearson correlation and mean absolute error (MAE). We assessed associations between CMR-derived LVH and prevalent cardiovascular disease using logistic regression adjusted for age and sex. Results: We generated CMR-derived LV mass estimates within 38,574 individuals. Among 891 individuals in the holdout set, ML4Hseg reproduced manually labeled LV mass more accurately (r = 0.864, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.847–0.880; MAE 10.41 g, 95% CI 9.82–10.99) than ML4Hreg (r = 0.843, 95% CI 0.823–0.861; MAE 10.51, 95% CI 9.86–11.15, P = .01) and InlineVF (r = 0.795, 95% CI 0.770–0.818; MAE 14.30, 95% CI 13.46–11.01, P < .01). LVH defined using ML4Hseg demonstrated the strongest associations with hypertension (odds ratio 2.76, 95% CI 2.51–3.04), atrial fibrillation (1.75, 95% CI 1.37–2.20), and heart failure (4.67, 95% CI 3.28–6.49). Conclusions: ML4Hseg is an open-source deep learning model providing automated quantification of CMR-derived LV mass. Deep learning models characterizing cardiac structure may facilitate broad cardiovascular discovery.

Background and PurposeIndication of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in patients ≤60 years with brain ischemia is uncertain.MethodsThis prospective double-blinded study included patients with cryptogenic acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) ≥18 and ≤60 years. After routine diagnostics, all patients underwent patent foramen ovale (PFO) screening by transcranial Doppler (TCD) bubble test, carotid ultrasound for atherosclerosis screening (intima-media-thickness >0.90 mm or plaques), and TEE. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and negative predictive values (NPV) of the combined non-invasive ultrasound to predict therapy-relevant TEE findings.ResultsWe included 240 consecutive patients (median 51 years, 39% women) of which 68 (28.3%) had both a negative bubble test and no carotid atherosclerosis. Of these, 66 (97.1%) had unremarkable TEE findings; in one patient a small PFO was found and closed subsequently, in another patient a 4.9 mm thick aortic atheroma was found, and double platelet inhibition initiated. Of the other 172 (71.7%) patients, 93 (54%) had PFO and 9 (5.2%) complex aortic plaques. No other therapy-relevant findings were present in both groups. Non-invasive ultrasound had a sensitivity of 98.0%, specificity of 47.8%, NPV of 97.1%, and PPV of 58.1% for therapy-relevant TEE findings.ConclusionsBubble test and carotid ultrasound could be used for the individual decision for/against TEE in patients with cryptogenic stroke ≤60 years. If they are unremarkable, TEE can be omitted with high safety regarding secondary prevention. If bubble test is positive and/or carotid ultrasound shows atherosclerosis, TEE should be carried out if PFO or aortic atheroma are potentially relevant for further patient management.

Background Survivors of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) are at increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), in the form of recurrent stroke and myocardial Infarction. We investigated whether long‐term blood pressure (BP) variability represents a risk factor for MACCE after ICH, independent of average BP. Methods and Results We analyzed data from prospective ICH cohort studies at Massachusetts General Hospital and the University of Hong Kong. We captured long‐term (ie, visit‐to‐visit) BP variability, quantified as individual participants’ variation coefficient. We explored determinants of systolic and diastolic BP variability and generated survival analyses models to explore their association with MACCE. Among 1828 survivors of ICH followed for a median of 46.2 months we identified 166 with recurrent ICH, 68 with ischemic strokes, and 69 with myocardial infarction. Black (coefficient +3.8, SE 1.3) and Asian (coefficient +2.2, SE 0.4) participants displayed higher BP variability. Long‐term systolic BP variability was independently associated with recurrent ICH (subhazard ratio [SHR], 1.82; 95% CI, 1.19–2.79), ischemic stroke (SHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.06–2.47), and myocardial infarction (SHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05–2.24). Average BP during follow‐up did not modify the association between long‐term systolic BP variability and MACCE. Conclusions Long‐term BP variability is a potent risk factor for recurrent hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction after ICH, even among survivors with well‐controlled hypertension. Our findings support the hypothesis that combined control of average BP and its variability after ICH is required to minimize incidence of MACCE.

Summary: Background: Factors such as age, pre-injury health, and injury severity, account for less than 35% of outcome variability in traumatic brain injury (TBI). While some residual outcome variability may be attributable to genetic factors, published candidate gene association studies have often been underpowered and subject to publication bias. Methods: We performed the first genome- and transcriptome-wide association studies (GWAS, TWAS) of genetic effects on outcome in TBI. The study population consisted of 5268 patients from prospective European and US studies, who attended hospital within 24 h of TBI, and satisfied local protocols for computed tomography. Findings: The estimated heritability of TBI outcome was 0·26. GWAS revealed no genetic variants with genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10−8), but identified 83 variants in 13 independent loci which met a lower pre-specified sub-genomic statistical threshold (p < 10−5). Similarly, none of the genes tested in TWAS met tissue-wide significance. An exploratory analysis of 75 published candidate variants associated with 28 genes revealed one replicable variant (rs1800450 in the MBL2 gene) which retained significance after correction for multiple comparison (p = 5·24 × 10−4). Interpretation: While multiple novel loci reached less stringent thresholds, none achieved genome-wide significance. The overall heritability estimate, however, is consistent with the hypothesis that common genetic variation substantially contributes to inter-individual variability in TBI outcome. The meta-analytic approach to the GWAS and the availability of summary data allows for a continuous extension with additional cohorts as data becomes available. Funding: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section.

The kidney and the brain, as high-flow end organs relying on autoregulatory mechanisms, have unique anatomic and physiological hemodynamic properties. Similarly, the two organs share a common pattern of microvascular dysfunction as a result of aging and exposure to vascular risk factors (e.g., hypertension, diabetes and smoking) and therefore progress in parallel into a systemic condition known as small vessel disease (SVD). Many epidemiological studies have shown that even mild renal dysfunction is robustly associated with acute and chronic forms of cerebrovascular disease. Beyond ischemic SVD, kidney impairment increases the risk of acute cerebrovascular events related to different underlying pathologies, notably large artery stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. Other chronic cerebral manifestations of SVD are variably associated with kidney disease. Observational data have suggested the hypothesis that kidney function influences cerebrovascular disease independently and adjunctively to the effect of known vascular risk factors, which affect both renal and cerebral microvasculature. In addition to confirming this independent association, recent large-scale human genetic studies have contributed to disentangling potentially causal associations from shared genetic predisposition and resolving the uncertainty around the direction of causality between kidney and cerebrovascular disease. Accelerated atherosclerosis, impaired cerebral autoregulation, remodeling of the cerebral vasculature, chronic inflammation and endothelial dysfunction can be proposed to explain the additive mechanisms through which renal dysfunction leads to cerebral SVD and other cerebrovascular events. Genetic epidemiology also can help identify new pathological pathways which wire kidney dysfunction and cerebral vascular pathology together. The need for identifying additional pathological mechanisms underlying kidney and cerebrovascular disease is attested to by the limited effect of current therapeutic options in preventing cerebrovascular disease in patients with kidney impairment.

Background Performance of existing atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction models in poststroke populations is unclear. We evaluated predictive utility of an AF risk model in patients with acute stroke and assessed performance of a fully refitted model. Methods and Results Within an academic hospital, we included patients aged 46 to 94 years discharged for acute ischemic stroke between 2003 and 2018. We estimated 5‐year predicted probabilities of AF using the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology for Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE‐AF) model, by recalibrating CHARGE‐AF to the baseline risk of the sample, and by fully refitting a Cox proportional hazards model to the stroke sample (Re‐CHARGE‐AF) model. We compared discrimination and calibration between models and used 200 bootstrap samples for optimism‐adjusted measures. Among 551 patients with acute stroke, there were 70 incident AF events over 5 years (cumulative incidence, 15.2%; 95% CI, 10.6%–19.5%). Median predicted 5‐year risk from CHARGE‐AF was 4.8% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 2.0–12.6) and from Re‐CHARGE‐AF was 16.1% (quartile 1–quartile 3, 8.0–26.2). For CHARGE‐AF, discrimination was moderate (C statistic, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.57–0.70) and calibration was poor, underestimating AF risk (Greenwood‐Nam D’Agostino chi‐square, P

Background The relationship between COVID‐19 and ischemic stroke is poorly understood due to potential unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. We aimed to leverage genetic data to triangulate reported associations. Methods and Results Analyses primarily focused on critical COVID‐19, defined as hospitalization with COVID‐19 requiring respiratory support or resulting in death. Cross‐trait linkage disequilibrium score regression was used to estimate genetic correlations of critical COVID‐19 with ischemic stroke, other related cardiovascular outcomes, and risk factors common to both COVID‐19 and cardiovascular disease (body mass index, smoking and chronic inflammation, estimated using C‐reactive protein). Mendelian randomization analysis was performed to investigate whether liability to critical COVID‐19 was associated with increased risk of any cardiovascular outcome for which genetic correlation was identified. There was evidence of genetic correlation between critical COVID‐19 and ischemic stroke (rg=0.29, false discovery rate [FDR]=0.012), body mass index (rg=0.21, FDR=0.00002), and C‐reactive protein (rg=0.20, FDR=0.00035), but no other trait investigated. In Mendelian randomization, liability to critical COVID‐19 was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke (odds ratio [OR] per logOR increase in genetically predicted critical COVID‐19 liability 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06, P‐value=0.03). Similar estimates were obtained for ischemic stroke subtypes. Consistent estimates were also obtained when performing statistical sensitivity analyses more robust to the inclusion of pleiotropic variants, including multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses adjusting for potential genetic confounding through body mass index, smoking, and chronic inflammation. There was no evidence to suggest that genetic liability to ischemic stroke increased the risk of critical COVID‐19. Conclusions These data support that liability to critical COVID‐19 is associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. The host response predisposing to severe COVID‐19 is likely to increase the risk of ischemic stroke, independent of other potentially mitigating risk factors.

Background Survivors of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are at high risk for recurrent stroke, which is associated with blood pressure control. Because most recurrent stroke events occur within 12 to 18 months of the index ICH, rapid blood pressure control is likely to be crucial. We investigated the frequency and prognostic impact of uncontrolled short‐term hypertension after ICH. Methods and Results We analyzed data from Massachusetts General Hospital (n=1305) and the University of Hong Kong (n=523). We classified hypertension as controlled, undertreated, or treatment resistant at 3 months after ICH and determined the following: (1) the risk factors for uncontrolled hypertension and (2) whether hypertension control at 3 months is associated with stroke recurrence and mortality. We followed 1828 survivors of ICH for a median of 46.2 months. Only 9 of 234 (4%) recurrent strokes occurred before 3 months after ICH. At 3 months, 713 participants (39%) had controlled hypertension, 755 (41%) had undertreated hypertension, and 360 (20%) had treatment‐resistant hypertension. Black, Hispanic, and Asian race/ethnicity and higher blood pressure at time of ICH increased the risk of uncontrolled hypertension at 3 months (all P60% had uncontrolled hypertension at 3 months, with undertreatment accounting for the majority of cases. The 3‐month blood pressure measurements were associated with higher recurrent stroke risk and mortality. Black, Hispanic, and Asian survivors of ICH and those presenting with severe acute hypertensive response were at highest risk for uncontrolled hypertension.

Microarray patches (MAPs) have the potential to be a safer, more acceptable, easier to use and more cost-effective method for administration of vaccines when compared to the needle and syringe. Since MAPs deliver vaccine to the dermis and epidermis, a degree of local immune response at the site of application is expected. In a phase 1 clinical trial (ACTRN 12618000112268), the Vaxxas high-density MAP (HD-MAP) was used to deliver a monovalent, split inactivated influenza virus vaccine into the skin. HD-MAP immunisation led to significantly enhanced humoral responses on day 8, 22 and 61 compared with IM injection of a quadrivalent commercial seasonal influenza vaccine (Afluria Quadrivalent®). Here, the aim was to analyse cellular responses to HD-MAPs in the skin of trial subjects, using flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry. HD-MAPs were coated with a split inactivated influenza virus vaccine (A/Singapore/GP1908/2015 [H1N1]), to deliver 5 μg haemagglutinin (HA) per HD-MAP. Three HD-MAPs were applied to the volar forearm (FA) of five healthy volunteers (to achieve the required 15 μg HA dose), whilst five control subjects received three uncoated HD-MAPs (placebo). Local skin response was recorded for over 61 days and haemagglutination inhibition antibody titres (HAI) were assessed on days 1, 4, 8, 22, and 61. Skin biopsies were taken before (day 1), and three days after HD-MAP application (day 4) and analysed by flow-cytometry and immunohistochemistry to compare local immune subset infiltration. HD-MAP vaccination with 15 μg HA resulted in significant HAI antibody titres compared to the placebo group. Application of uncoated placebo HD-MAPs resulted in mild erythema and oedema in most subjects, that resolved by day 4 in 80% of subjects. Active, HA-coated HD-MAP application resulted in stronger erythema responses on day 4, which resolved between days 22-61. Overall, these erythema responses were accompanied by an influx of immune cells in all subjects. Increased cell infiltration of CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ T cells as well as myeloid CD11b+ CD11c+ and non-myeloid CD11b- dendritic cells were observed in all subjects, but more pronounced in active HD-MAP groups. In contrast, CD19+/CD20+ B cell counts remained unchanged. Key limitations include the use of an influenza vaccine, to which the subjects may have had previous exposure. Different results might have been obtained with HD-MAPs inducing a primary immune response. In conclusion, influenza vaccine administered to the forearm (FA) using the HD-MAP was well-tolerated and induced a mild to moderate skin response with lymphocytic infiltrate at the site of application.

Abstract Introduction In the Pacific Northwest of North America, research addressing lentic-breeding amphibian population vulnerability has emphasized aquatic habitats, frequently neglecting terrestrial habitats. Consequently, wetland protection and restoration often fails to preserve or restore adjacent uplands required by lentic-breeding amphibians. Inattention to the juxtaposition and connectivity of uplands to wetlands could locally extirpate lentic-breeding amphibians. The objective of this research is to identify the relative importance of juxtaposed terrestrial and aquatic habitats in a lentic-breeding amphibian, the northern red-legged frog (Rana aurora), by evaluating the relationship between its occurrence and abundance with its aquatic and terrestrial habitats. To accomplish this, egg mass counts were used to quantify R. aurora populations in 30 stillwater habitats across an urbanization gradient. Using a Geographic Information System, seven descriptors of aquatic and surrounding terrestrial habitats were measured to evaluate their relationships to R. aurora occurrence and abundance. Results Rana aurora occurrence and breeding abundance both reflect the forested area around wetland breeding sites and forest connectivity to those sites. Rana aurora breeding abundance also strongly reflects the percent of forested perimeter around wetland breeding sites. The forest habitat most important for R. aurora breeding abundance seems to be > 200 m from the breeding wetlands. The American bullfrog presence and the two aquatic parameters measured, wetland area and vegetated area, were unrelated to R. aurora occurrence and breeding abundance. Conclusions Area and connectivity of juxtaposed forested terrestrial habitat may represent a basic control on R. aurora presence and population size. Urban development policies should consider preservation and restoration of upland forest habitats beyond current fixed-width buffers and wetland habitat area at landscape scales.

Background Previous studies assessing the association between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) did not account for time‐varying covariates, which may be affected by previous BMI. We illustrate how the g‐formula can account for time‐varying confounding. Methods and Results We included 4392 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were AF free at ages 45 to 55 years, and followed them for up to 20 years. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing time‐varying nonobese versus obese with Cox models. We used the g‐formula to compare nonobese versus obese and 10% annual decrease in BMI (until normal weight is reached) versus natural course. We estimated HRs and differences in restricted mean survival times, the mean difference in time alive and AF free. We adjusted for sex, age, and time‐varying risk factors. Cox models indicated that nonobese participants had a decreased rate of AF versus obese participants (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72–0.97). G‐formula analyses comparing everyone had they been nonobese versus obese yielded stronger associations (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58–0.91). The restricted mean survival time was 19.22 years had everyone been nonobese and 19.03 years had everyone been obese (difference, 2.25 months; 95% CI, −0.66 to 5.16). When assessing a 10% annual decrease in BMI, the association was weaker (HR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86–1.08). Conclusions Decreased BMI was associated with a lower rate of AF after accounting for time‐varying covariates that depend on previous exposure using the g‐formula, which Cox models cannot accommodate. Absolute measures like the restricted mean survival time difference offer context to relative measures of association.

BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease for which (1) disease-causing pathways are incompletely understood and (2) subclassification may improve patient management. Unlike other biomarkers, germline genetic markers do not change with disease progression or treatment. In this paper, we test whether a germline genetic approach informed by physiology can be used to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. First, we aimed to categorize genetic loci into groups representing likely disease mechanistic pathways. Second, we asked whether the novel clusters of genetic loci we identified have any broad clinical consequence, as assessed in four separate subsets of individuals with T2D.Methods and findingsIn an effort to identify mechanistic pathways driven by established T2D genetic loci, we applied Bayesian nonnegative matrix factorization (bNMF) clustering to genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for 94 independent T2D genetic variants and 47 diabetes-related traits. We identified five robust clusters of T2D loci and traits, each with distinct tissue-specific enhancer enrichment based on analysis of epigenomic data from 28 cell types. Two clusters contained variant-trait associations indicative of reduced beta cell function, differing from each other by high versus low proinsulin levels. The three other clusters displayed features of insulin resistance: obesity mediated (high body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC]), "lipodystrophy-like" fat distribution (low BMI, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and high triglycerides), and disrupted liver lipid metabolism (low triglycerides). Increased cluster genetic risk scores were associated with distinct clinical outcomes, including increased blood pressure, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke. We evaluated the potential for clinical impact of these clusters in four studies containing individuals with T2D (Metabolic Syndrome in Men Study [METSIM], N = 487; Ashkenazi, N = 509; Partners Biobank, N = 2,065; UK Biobank [UKBB], N = 14,813). Individuals with T2D in the top genetic risk score decile for each cluster reproducibly exhibited the predicted cluster-associated phenotypes, with approximately 30% of all individuals assigned to just one cluster top decile. Limitations of this study include that the genetic variants used in the cluster analysis were restricted to those associated with T2D in populations of European ancestry.ConclusionOur approach identifies salient T2D genetically anchored and physiologically informed pathways, and supports the use of genetics to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. Classification of patients by these genetic pathways may offer a step toward genetically informed T2D patient management.

Background: We sought to determine whether a small pool of ancestry-informative DNA markers (AIMs) improves modeling of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk in heterogeneous populations, compared with self-identified race/ethnicity (SIRE) alone.Methods: We genotyped 15 preselected AIMs to perform principal component (PC) analysis in the ERICH study (a multi-center case-control study of ICH in whites, blacks, and Hispanics). We used multivariate logistic regression and tests for independent samples to compare associations for genetic ancestry and SIRE with ICH-associated vascular risk factors (VRFs). We then compared the performance of models for ICH risk that included AIMs and SIRE alone.Results: Among 4,935 subjects, 34.7% were non-Hispanic black, 35.1% non-Hispanic white, and 30.2% Hispanic by SIRE. In stratified analysis of these SIRE groups, AIM-defined ancestry was strongly associated with seven of the eight VRFs analyzed (p < 0.001). Within each SIRE group, regression of AIM-derived PCs against VRFs confirmed independent associations of AIMs across at least two race/ethnic groups for seven VRFs. Akaike information criterion (AIC) (6,294 vs. 6,286) and likelihood ratio test (p < 0.001) showed that genetic ancestry defined by AIMs achieved a better ICH risk modeling compared to SIRE alone.Conclusion: Genetically-defined ancestry provides valuable risk exposure information that is not captured by SIRE alone. Particularly among Hispanics and blacks, inclusion of AIMs adds value over self-reported ancestry in controlling for genetic and environmental exposures that influence risk of ICH. While differences are small, this modeling approach may be superior in highly heterogeneous clinical poulations. Additional studies across other ancestries and risk exposures are needed to confirm and extend these findings.