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In Phase 1 of the "Advancing Dental Education in the 21st Century" project, research was conducted and published on a number of serious challenges facing dental and allied dental education, both presently and projected to 2040. Those findings informed the strategic analysis and recommendations developed in Phase 2 of the project. This report provides an overview of the Phase 2 conclusions and presents recommendations to address the challenges identified. The recommendations propose ways to educate a workforce prepared to meet the oral health needs of the population; develop a sustainable economic model that allows schools to meet their education, research, and service missions; make dental and allied dental education and practice an integral part of the larger health education and delivery systems; and keep dentistry advancing as a "learned" profession. This report begins with an Executive Summary and then presents the strategic analysis of challenges facing dental schools and allied dental programs and provides a brief explanation of the rationale for each recommendation. Two appendices are included with the report: the first summarizes discussions held at the national conference to consider the recommendations; and the second provides additional documentation of calculations used to estimate the number of new dental graduates needed in 2040.

Background: Dentists increasingly are employed in large group practices that use financial incentive systems to influence provider performance. The authors describe the design and initial implementation of a pay-for-performance (P4P) incentive program for a large capitated Oregon group dental practice that cares primarily for patients receiving Medicaid. The authors do not assess the effectiveness of the incentive system on provider and staff member performance., Methods: The data come from use of care files and integrated electronic health records, provider and staff member surveys, and interviews and community surveys from 6 counties. Quarterly individual- and team-level incentives focused on 3 performance metrics., Results: The program was challenged by many complex administrative issues. The key issues included designing a P4P system for different types of providers and administrative staff members who were employed centrally and in different communities, setting realistic performance metrics, building information systems that provided timely information about performance, and educating and gaining the support of a diverse workforce. Adjustments are being made in the incentive scheme to meet these challenges., Conclusions: This is the first report of a P4P compensation system for dental care providers and supporting staff members. The complex administrative challenges will require several years to address., Practical Implications: Large, capitated dental practice organizations will employ more dental care providers and administrative staff members to care for patients who receive Medicaid and patients who are privately insured. It is critical to design and implement a P4P system that the workforce supports., (Copyright © 2018 American Dental Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This executive summary for Section 4 of the "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century" project examines the projected oral health care delivery system in 2040 and the likely impact of system changes on dental education. Dental care is at an early stage of major changes with the decline in solo practice and increase in large group practices. These groups are not consolidated at the state level, but further consolidation is expected as they try to increase their negotiating leverage with dental insurers. At this time, there is limited integration of medical and dental care in terms of financing, regulation, education, and delivery. This pattern may change as health maintenance organizations and integrated medical systems begin to offer dental care to their members. By 2040, it is expected that many dentists will be employed in large group practices and working with allied dental staff with expanded duties and other health professionals, and more dental graduates will seek formal postdoctoral training to obtain better positions in group practices.

This article examines dental school financial trends from 2004-05 to 2011-12, based on data from the American Dental Association (ADA) annual financial survey completed by all U.S. dental schools. For public schools, revenues from tuition and fees increased 68.6%, and state support declined 17.2% over the examined period. For private schools, revenues from tuition and fees increased 38.9%, and university indirect subsidies declined 77.9% over the same period. The major factors affecting dental school expenditures were the number of students and postdoctoral students, faculty practice, and research. The findings suggest that dental schools are now more dependent financially on tuition and fees than in the past. Schools have been able to pass on increases in operating costs to students and specialty postdoctoral students. Now that growth in dentists' incomes is slowing and student debt is at an all-time high, this financing strategy may not be sustainable in the long run. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

Numerous factors that underlie the need for dentists are undergoing significant changes. Three factors are especially important: 1) improvements in oral health; 2) lower expenditures per patient per year, giving dentists the incentive to treat more patients to maintain incomes that justify their investment in dental education and practice; and 3) dental schools' producing new dentists at a faster rate than the growth in the population. If these trends continue, there is likely to be a dentist surplus of between 32% and 110% by 2040. A major challenge for dental schools is to adjust the production of dentists before 2040 and not wait for market forces to reduce the surplus. Whether there will be a painful market-based solution to the problem, as there was in the 1980s, or whether a more orderly path can be found is one of the key challenges of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century," for which this article was written.

Five background articles in Section 2 of the "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century" project examined some of the factors likely to impact the number of dentists needed in 2040: 1) the oral health of the population, 2) changes in the utilization of dental services, 3) new technologies, 4) the growth of large capitated dental group practices, and 5) the demand for dental care. With this information, a sixth background article estimated the number of dentists needed in 2040 compared to the number expected if current trends continue. This executive summary provides an overview of findings from these six articles. The data indicate major improvements in oral health, especially in upper income groups that account for 65% of practice revenues. At the same time, per capita utilization of restorative and prosthetic services has declined dramatically. No major new technologies are likely to impact the need for dentists by 2040. In a large capitated group practice, full-time general dentists treated an average of 2,100 patients per year; solo general dentists averaged 1,350. Based on the examined factors, growth in demand for traditional forms of care may slow substantially, raising the potential for a surplus of dentists in 2040. If these trends continue, the key national policy issue then would be: should schools reduce the number of graduates before market forces require them to downsize or close, or are other alternatives available?

This article examines the current safety net activities of dental schools and reviews strategies by which schools could care for more poor and low-income patients. The primary data come from the annual Survey of Dental Education, a joint American Dental Education Association (ADEA) and American Dental Association (ADA) activity. The analyses use descriptive statistics and are intended to give ballpark estimates of patients treated under varying clinical scenarios. Some 107.4 million people are underserved in comparison to utilization rates for middle-income Americans. In 2013-14, pre- and postdoctoral students treated about 1,176,000 disadvantaged patients. This is an estimate; the actual value may be 25% above or below this number. The impact of potential strategies for schools to provide more care to poor and low-income patients are discussed; these are larger class size, more community-based education, a required one-year residency program, and schools' becoming part of publicly funded safety net clinics. While dental schools cannot solve the access problem, they could have a major impact if the payment and delivery strategies discussed were implemented. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

This study compared the number of patients treated per year by general dentists and dental hygienists in solo practice and by those employed by a large group practice. Information on the annual number of patient visits to solo general dental practitioners comes from the 2013 American Dental Association (ADA) Survey of Dental Practice. Patient visits were divided by 2.5 to estimate the number of patients treated annually. The data on group practices come from HealthPartners (HP) of Minnesota, a large not-for-profit medical and dental Health Maintenance Organization that accepts insurance contracts based on global budgets and is financially at risk. In 2013, solo general dentists averaged 1,350 patients, while the average HP general dentist treated 2,052 patients. HP general dentists thus treated over 700 more patients annually than did solo practitioners. This large difference has major implications for the future of the dental delivery system and dental education. This article was written as part of the project "Advancing Dental Education in the 21 st Century."

In 1926, the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching published a report prepared by William J. Gies, PhD, a professor of biochemistry and founder of the Columbia University College of Dental Medicine. The Gies report examined the current status of dental education in the United States and Canada and made recommendations for a new direction. This report led to major improvements in dental education and research and was a critical factor in making dentistry a learned profession. Dental and allied dental education are now challenged by a new set of issues related to financing education, improved oral health, more effective treatment technologies, and a rapidly changing delivery system. In an effort to meet these challenges, this strategic planning project first examined the current status and future trends that are likely to impact the dental profession over the next 25 years. The project was organized into six sections, and 50 authors were invited to prepare 38 articles to address these issues. The executive summaries for each section are being published in the August and September 2017 issues of the Journal of Dental Education, and the background articles are being published in online supplements to those issues. In the next phase of the project, information from the articles will be used to make strategic recommendations to assist dental schools and allied dental education programs in preparing graduates for practice in 2040 and to meet their institutions' missions for scholarship and service. This introduction presents the project rationale, provides a list of the published articles, and acknowledges the organizations that supported this effort., (© American Dental Education Association.)

Background: To improve the oral health of low-income children, innovations in dental delivery systems are needed, including community-based care, the use of expanded duty auxiliary dental personnel, capitation payments, and global budgets. This paper describes the protocol for PREDICT (Population-centered Risk- and Evidence-based Dental Interprofessional Care Team), an evaluation project to test the effectiveness of new delivery and payment systems for improving dental care and oral health., Methods/design: This is a parallel-group cluster randomized controlled trial. Fourteen rural Oregon counties with a publicly insured (Medicaid) population of 82,000 children (0 to 21 years old) and pregnant women served by a managed dental care organization are randomized into test and control counties. In the test intervention (PREDICT), allied dental personnel provide screening and preventive services in community settings and case managers serve as patient navigators to arrange referrals of children who need dentist services. The delivery system intervention is paired with a compensation system for high performance (pay-for-performance) with efficient performance monitoring. PREDICT focuses on the following: 1) identifying eligible children and gaining caregiver consent for services in community settings (for example, schools); 2) providing risk-based preventive and caries stabilization services efficiently at these settings; 3) providing curative care in dental clinics; and 4) incentivizing local delivery teams to meet performance benchmarks. In the control intervention, care is delivered in dental offices without performance incentives. The primary outcome is the prevalence of untreated dental caries. Other outcomes are related to process, structure and cost. Data are collected through patient and staff surveys, clinical examinations, and the review of health and administrative records., Discussion: If effective, PREDICT is expected to substantially reduce disparities in dental care and oral health. PREDICT can be disseminated to other care organizations as publicly insured clients are increasingly served by large practice organizations., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02312921 6 December 2014. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and Advantage Dental Services, LLC, are supporting the evaluation.