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To assess changes in SARS-CoV-2 spike binding antibody prevalence in the Dominican Republic and implications for immunologic protection against variants of concern, we prospectively enrolled 2,300 patients with undifferentiated febrile illnesses in a study during March 2021-August 2022. We tested serum samples for spike antibodies and tested nasopharyngeal samples for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection using a reverse transcription PCR nucleic acid amplification test. Geometric mean spike antibody titers increased from 6.6 (95% CI 5.1-8.7) binding antibody units (BAU)/mL during March-June 2021 to 1,332 (95% CI 1,055-1,682) BAU/mL during May-August 2022. Multivariable binomial odds ratios for acute infection were 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.74), 0.38 (95% CI 0.27-0.55), and 0.27 (95% CI 0.18-0.40) for the second, third, and fourth versus the first anti-spike quartile; findings were similar by viral strain. Combining serologic and virologic screening might enable monitoring of discrete population immunologic markers and their implications for emergent variant transmission.

Background: Population-level SARS-CoV-2 immunological protection is poorly understood but can guide vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention priorities. Our objective was to characterise cumulative infections and immunological protection in the Dominican Republic., Methods: Household members ≥5 years were enrolled in a three-stage national household cluster serosurvey in the Dominican Republic. We measured pan-immunoglobulin antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S) and nucleocapsid glycoproteins, and pseudovirus neutralising activity against the ancestral and B.1.617.2 (Delta) strains. Seroprevalence and cumulative prior infections were weighted and adjusted for assay performance and seroreversion. Binary classification machine learning methods and pseudovirus neutralising correlates of protection were used to estimate 50% and 80% protection against symptomatic infection., Findings: Between 30 Jun and 12 Oct 2021 we enrolled 6683 individuals from 3832 households. We estimate that 85.0% (CI 82.1-88.0) of the ≥5 years population had been immunologically exposed and 77.5% (CI 71.3-83) had been previously infected. Protective immunity sufficient to provide at least 50% protection against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated in 78.1% (CI 74.3-82) and 66.3% (CI 62.8-70) of the population for the ancestral and Delta strains respectively. Younger (5-14 years, OR 0.47 [CI 0.36-0.61]) and older (≥75-years, 0.40 [CI 0.28-0.56]) age, working outdoors (0.53 [0.39-0.73]), smoking (0.66 [0.52-0.84]), urban setting (1.30 [1.14-1.49]), and three vs no vaccine doses (18.41 [10.69-35.04]) were associated with 50% protection against the ancestral strain., Interpretation: Cumulative infections substantially exceeded prior estimates and overall immunological exposure was high. After controlling for confounders, markedly lower immunological protection was observed to the ancestral and Delta strains across certain subgroups, findings that can guide public health interventions and may be generalisable to other settings and viral strains., Funding: This study was funded by the US CDC., Competing Interests: E.J.N. is the PI on a US CDC funded U01 award that funded the study, and C.L.L., A.K., D.D., M.d.S.A., A.C.R., H.M., S.G., M.C.E., W.D., N.I., G.A., B.H., K.D., M.B., E.F., and L.I. have received salaries, consultancy fees, or travel paid through this award. E.Z.G., B.L., and A.E.-B. are employees of the US CDC. B.H., C.T., L.C., F.P., and R.S.-R. are employees of the Ministry of Ministry of Health and Social Assistance, Dominican Republic, that was subcontracted with funds from the US CDC award. A.K. and E.F. are supported by the Welcome Trust, UK. D.B. had a patent for COVID-19 vaccine licensed to Janssen. We declare no other competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

This multiauthored communication gives a state-of-the-art global perspective on the increasing adoption of tele-critical care. Exponentially increasing sophistication in the deployment of Computers, Information, and Communication Technology has ensured extending the reach of limited intensivists virtually and reaching the unreached. Natural disasters, COVID-19 pandemic, and wars have made tele-intensive care a reality. Concerns and regulatory issues are being sorted out, cross-border cost-effective tele-critical care is steadily increasing Components to set up a tele-intensive care unit, and overcoming barriers is discussed. Importance of developing best practice guidelines and retraining is emphasized., Competing Interests: Disclosure The authors confirm that no competing financial interests exist and there are nil source(s) of support in the form of grants, equipment, etc., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To assess recent advances in interfacility critical care transport., Data Sources: PubMed English language publications plus chapters and professional organization publications., Study Selection: Manuscripts including practice manuals and standard (1990-2021) focused on interfacility transport of critically ill patients., Data Extraction: Review of society guidelines, legislative requirements, objective measures of outcomes, and transport practice standards occurred in work groups assessing definitions and foundations of interfacility transport, transport team composition, and transport specific considerations. Qualitative analysis was performed to characterize current science regarding interfacility transport., Data Synthesis: The Task Force conducted an integrative review of 496 manuscripts combined with 120 from the authors' collections including nonpeer reviewed publications. After title and abstract screening, 40 underwent full-text review, of which 21 remained for qualitative synthesis., Conclusions: Since 2004, there have been numerous advances in critical care interfacility transport. Clinical deterioration may be mitigated by appropriate patient selection, pretransport optimization, and transport by a well-resourced team and vehicle. There remains a dearth of high-quality controlled studies, but notable advances in monitoring, en route management, transport modality (air vs ground), as well as team composition and training serve as foundations for future inquiry. Guidance from professional organizations remains uncoupled from enforceable regulations, impeding standardization of transport program quality assessment and verification., Competing Interests: Drs. Wilcox, Cohen, and Frakes receive partial salary support from Boston MedFlight. Dr. Cohen disclosed that he serves as Chief Medical Officer for Boston MedFlight. Dr. Wax receives partial salary support from Ornge. Dr. Guyette receives partial salary support from STAT MedEvac. Dr. Kaplan received funding from the Society of Critical Care Medicine as President from February 2020 to February 2021. The remaining authors have disclosed that they do not have any potential conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2022 by the Society of Critical Care Medicine and Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

Introduction: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been a major health concern worldwide. This study aims to develop a Bayesian model to predict critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19., Methods: Sensitivity and specificity were obtained from previous meta-analysis studies. The complex vulnerability index (IVC-COV2 index for its abbreviation in Spanish) was used to set the pretest probability. Likelihood ratios were integrated into a Fagan nomogram for posttest probabilities, and IVC-COV2 + National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values and CURB-65 scores were generated. Absolute and relative diagnostic gains (RDGs) were calculated based on pretest and posttest differences., Results: The IVC-COV2 index was derived from a population of 1,055,746 individuals and was based on mortality in high-risk (71.97%), intermediate-risk (26.11%), and low-risk (1.91%) groups. The integration of models in which IVC-COV2 intermediate + NEWS ≥ 5 and CURB-65 > 2 led to a "number needed to (NNT) diagnose" that was slightly improved in the CURB-65 model (2 vs. 3). A comparison of diagnostic gains revealed that neither the positive likelihood ratio (P = 0.62) nor the negative likelihood ratio (P = 0.95) differed significantly between the IVC-COV2 NEWS model and the CURB-65 model., Conclusion: According to the proposed mathematical model, the combination of the IVC-COV2 intermediate score and NEWS or CURB-65 score yields superior results and a greater predictive value for the severity of illness. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based/mathematical model developed for use in COVID-19 critical care decision-making., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright © 2022, Baez et al.)

Airway emergencies and respiratory failure frequently occur in the prehospital setting. Patients undergoing advanced airway management customarily receive manual ventilations. However, manual ventilation is associated with hypo- and hyperventilation, variable tidal volumes, and barotrauma, among other potential complications. Portable mechanical ventilators offer an important strategy for optimizing ventilation and mitigating ventilatory complications.EMS clinicians, including those performing emergency response as well as interfacility transports, should consider using mechanical ventilation after advanced airway insertion.Prehospital mechanical ventilation techniques, strategies, and parameters should be disease-specific and should mirror in-hospital best practices.EMS clinicians must receive training in the general principles of mechanical ventilation as well as detailed training in the operation of the specific system(s) used by the EMS agency.Patients undergoing mechanical ventilation must receive appropriate sedation and analgesia.

Background: Dignitary medicine is an emerging field of training that involves the specialized care of diplomats, heads of state, and other high-ranking officials. In an effort to provide guidance on training in this nascent field, we convened a panel of experts in dignitary medicine and using the Delphi methodology, created a consensus curriculum for training in dignitary medicine., Methods: A three-round Delphi consensus process was performed with 42 experts in the field of dignitary medicine. Predetermined scores were required for an aspect of the curriculum to advance to the next round. The scores on the final round were used to determine the components of the curriculum. Scores below the threshold to advance were dropped in the subsequent round., Results: Our panel had a high degree of agreement on the required skills needed to practice dignitary medicine, with active practice in a provider's baseline specialty, current board certification, and skills in emergency care and resuscitation being the highest rated skills dignitary medicine physicians need. Skills related to vascular and emergency ultrasound and quality improvement were rated the lowest in the Delphi analysis. No skills were dropped from consideration., Conclusions: The results of our work can form the basis of formal fellowship training, continuing medical education, and publications in the field of dignitary medicine. It is clear that active medical practice and knowledge of resuscitation and emergency care are critical skills in this field, making emergency medicine physicians well suited to practicing dignitary medicine.

Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in the USA. Our objective was to assess the predictive value on critical illness and disposition of a sequential Bayesian Model that integrates Lactate and procalcitonin (PCT) for pneumonia., Methods: Sensitivity and specificity of lactate and PCT attained from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated and inserted in Bayesian/ Fagan nomogram to calculate posttest probabilities. Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) were analyzed comparing pre and post-test probability. To assess the value of integrating both PCT and Lactate in Severity of Illness Prediction we built a model that combined CURB65 with PCT as the Pre-Test markers and later integrated the Lactate Likelihood Ratio Values to generate a combined CURB 65 + Procalcitonin + Lactate Sequential value., Results: The BDG model integrated a CUBR65 Scores combined with Procalcitonin (LR+ and LR-) for Pre-Test Probability Intermediate and High with Lactate Positive Likelihood Ratios. This generated for the PCT LR+ Post-test Probability (POSITIVE TEST) Posterior probability: 93% (95% CI [91,96%]) and Post Test Probability (NEGATIVE TEST) of: 17% (95% CI [15-20%]) for the Intermediate subgroup and 97% for the high risk sub-group POSITIVE TEST: Post-Test probability:97% (95% CI [95,98%]) NEGATIVE TEST: Post-test probability: 33% (95% CI [31,36%]) . ANOVA analysis for CURB 65 (alone) vs CURB 65 and PCT (LR+) vs CURB 65 and PCT (LR+) and Lactate showed a statistically significant difference (P value = 0.013)., Conclusions: The sequential combination of CURB 65 plus PCT with Lactate yielded statistically significant results, demonstrating a greater predictive value for severity of illness thus ICU level care.

Natural disasters are extreme events generally caused by abrupt climate change and other environmental factors. Intensive care units (ICUs) need to be prepared, because in the event of a natural disaster, the number of patients that require service stresses an already occupied facility. It is critical that personnel be able to do a proper ICU triage. Efforts have been made to prepare the health care system to be ready for a disaster. A natural disaster can disrupt the daily routine of a hospital and ICU personal need to be equipped with the necessary tools to be able to respond appropriately., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Disasters burden on hospital emergency intensive care units (ICUs). This burden is increased in Latin America (LATAM) where hospital resources, intrahospital disaster simulations, and perceived level of preparedness vary greatly among different communities. The objective of the study was to assess LATAM ICU leaders' knowledge and attitudes regarding disaster preparedness., Methods: We developed a ten-item, web-based knowledge and attitude survey administered via LATAM ICU leaders online forums. Descriptive statistics were used. Epi Info™ software was used for analysis. Chi-square and Fisher's exact test with P < 0.05 were implemented for statistical significance, and odds ratio was used to measure the strength of association among variables., Results: There were 68 respondents in the survey. 13/68 respondents felt prepared for disasters. 16/68 worked at hospitals with 250+ beds and 52/68 represented hospitals with <250 beds. 23/68 participated in hospital committees for disaster, 24/68 participated in simulations or drills, and 22/68 participated in trainings or courses for disasters. Feeling prepared for disasters did not correlate with hospital size (odds ratio [OR] = 2.87 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83-9.92], P = 0.91), participation in hospital committees for disaster (OR = 3.10 [95% CI: 1.02-9.26], P = 0.08), and participation in simulations or drills (OR = 2.78 [95% CI: 0.93-8.29], P = 0.11), but participation in disaster trainings and courses appeared to directly correlate with the perception of being prepared (OR = 3.43 [95% CI: 1.13-10.41], P = 0.03)., Conclusion: Among the 68 centers represented, the majority did not feel their institution to be adequately prepared for disasters, but training appeared to change that perception. A small sample size represents the major limitation of this study., Competing Interests: There are no conflicts of interest., (Copyright: © 2019 International Journal of Critical Illness and Injury Science.)

Background: Barriers to EMS care can result in suboptimal outcomes and preventable morbidity and mortality. Large EMS databases such as the National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS) dataset provide valuable data on the relative incidence of such barriers to care., Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed using the NEMSIS database. Cases of violent trauma were collected based on gender and racial group. Each group was analyzed for the ratio of cases that involved an EMS barrier to care. Chi-square testing was used to assess associations, and the relative risk was used as the measure of strength of association. For all tests, statistical significance was set at the 0.05 level., Results: 719,812 cases of violent trauma were analyzed using the NEMSIS dataset. EMS encountered barriers to care for white and non-white patients was found to be 4.9% and 4.0% respectively. The difference between groups was found to be 0.9% (95% CI [0.7%, 1.1%] p < 0.0001). RR was 1.23 for white patients (95% CI [1.19, 1.26]), and 0.82 (95% CI [0.79, 0.84]) for non-white. EMS barriers to care for male and female patients was found to be 6.03% and 3.34%, respectively. The difference between groups was found to be 2.7% (95% CI [2.6%, 2.8%] p < 0.0001). RR for male patients was 1.80 (95% Cl [1.76, 1.84]) while RR for female patients was 0.55 (95% CI [0.54, 0.57])., Conclusions: Racially white patients and male patients have a statistically significant higher risk of encountering an EMS barrier to care in cases of violent trauma., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: We sought out to determine the correlation between the injury severity score (ISS) and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) between severely injured young adults (18-54 years) and elderly (>55 years) patients., Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional observational study. We included all adult cases (>18 years) diagnosed with trauma defined by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision. For significance testing, Chi-square test and odds ratio were used. Severe injuries were defined by an ISS >15. The presence of MODS was based on the definitions proposed by society for critical care medicine., Results: A total of 469 young and 173 elderly patients were included in the study. Among the 469 young adults, 193 had ISS >15, whereas out of the 173 elderly patients, 88 had an ISS >15. Severely injured young and elderly groups were more likely to develop MODS compared with those with an ISS <15 ( P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). The elderly had a higher likelihood of developing MODS ( P < 0.001; odds ratio: 5.17; 95% confidence interval: 2.74-9.80)., Conclusion: This study demonstrated a direct relationship between an ISS >15 and the development of MODS. We also observed a five-fold increase in the development of MODS among severely injured elderly patients., Competing Interests: There are no conflicts of interest.

Background: Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event.[1] We developed the Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) method as a simple tool for interpreting diagnostic impact.[234567]., Aim: We aimed to evaluate the clinical diagnostic impact of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) compared to traditional abdominal computed tomography (CT) and standard ultrasound (US) in a Bayesian Clinical Decision Scheme., Materials and Methods: Our mathematical method uses Bayesian Diagnostic Gains (BDG) model. For the purposes of our model, the EMTRAS was used as pretest probability and stratified as low risk (0-3 points = 10%), moderate risk (4-6 points = 42%), and high risk (7-12 points = 80%) based on mortality risk. Sensitivity and specificity for US, CT, and CEUS were obtained from pooled data and used to calculate LR- and LR+. Bayesian/Fagan nomogram was used to attain posttest probabilities using baseline probability of an event on the first axis (PRE), with LR on the second axis, and read off the pos-test probability (POST) on the third axis. For the nomogram analysis, the pretest probability (Pre) scoring for the EMTRAS score was obtained using the original EMTRAS data. Posttest probabilities were obtained based on the Bayes/Fagan Nomgram. Relative diagnostic gain (RDG) and absolute diagnostic gain (ADG) were calculated based on the differences deducted from pre- and post-test probabilities. IBM® SPSS® Statistics 20 was used for analysis and modeling. ANOVA was used for association between EMTRAS, CT scan, and CEUS, where P value set at 0.05., Results: Pooled data for Sensitivity (Se), Specificity (Sp), LR+, and LR- were obtained for US (Se = 45.7%, Sp = 91.8%, LR+ = 5.57, and LR- = 0.59), CEUS (Se 91.4%, Sp 100%, LR+ 91, and LR-0.09), and CT (Se = 94.8%, SP = 98.7%, LR+ = 73, and LR- =0.05). ANOVA analysis for LR+ and LR- showed no significant difference ( P < 0.8745 and P < 0.9841). Comparison of CT and CEUS did not yield statistically significant differences for LR+ ( P < 0.1)., Conclusion: In this Bayesian model, the diagnostic performance of CEUS was found to be similar to traditional abdominal CT. The greatest diagnostic gain was observed in low pretest positive LR groups., Competing Interests: There are no conflicts of interest.

Background: Accurate identification of patients at risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) places a substantial burden on emergency physicians (EPs). Bayesian nomogram for risk stratification in low- to intermediate-risk cardiovascular patients has not been investigated previously., Objective: The objective of this study was to develop a comparative diagnostic model using Bayesian statistics for exercise treadmill test (ETT) and stress echocardiogram (ECHO) to calculate post-test diagnostic risk of MACE using HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) risk score as predictor of pretest probability., Methods: Stratification was made by applying HEART scores for the prediction of MACE. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated using pooled sensitivity and specificity of ETT and ECHO from the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association systematic review. Post-test probabilities were obtained after inserting HEART score and LR into Bayesian nomogram. Analysis of variance was used to assess statistical association., Results: Positive LR (LR+) for ETT was 4.56 and negative LR (LR-) was 0.27; for ECHO, LR+ 5.65 and LR- 0.15. Bayesian statistical modeling post-test probabilities for LR+ and low HEART risk yielded a post-test probability for ETT of 7.75% and 9.09% for ECHO; intermediate risk gave 47.62% and 52.63%, respectively. For LR-, low HEART risk post-test probability for ETT was 0.46% and for ECHO 0.26%; intermediate risk probabilities were 4.48% and 2.49%, respectively. LR- was statistically significant in ruling out MACE with ECHO (p < 0.001), but no significant differences were seen for LR+ (p = 0.64)., Conclusions: This Bayesian analysis demonstrated slight superiority of stress ECHO over ETT in low- and intermediate-risk patients in ruling out MACE., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Study Objectives Traction splinting has been the prehospital treatment of midshaft femur fracture as early as the battlefield of the First World War (1914-1918). This study is the assessment of these injuries and the utilization of a traction splint (TS) in blunt and penetrating trauma, as well as intravenous (IV) analgesia utilization by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in Miami, Florida (USA)., Methods: This is a retrospective study of patients who sustained a midshaft femur fracture in the absence of multiple other severe injuries or severe physiologic derangement, as defined by an injury severity score (ISS) <20 and a triage revised trauma score (T-RTS)≥10, who presented to an urban, Level 1 trauma center between September 2008 and September 2013. The EMS patient care reports were assessed for physical exam findings and treatment modality. Data were analyzed descriptively and statistical differences were assessed using odds ratios and Z-score with significance set at P≤.05., Results: There were 170 patients studied in the cohort. The most common physical exam finding was a deformity +/- shortening and rotation in 136 patients (80.0%), followed by gunshot wound (GSW) in 22 patients (13.0%), pain or tenderness in four patients (2.4%), and no findings consistent with femur fracture in three patients (1.7%). The population was dichotomized between trauma type: blunt versus penetrating. Of 134 blunt trauma patients, 50 (37.0%) were immobilized in traction, and of the 36 penetrating trauma victims, one (2.7%) was immobilized in traction. Statistically significant differences were found in the application of a TS in blunt trauma when compared to penetrating trauma (OR=20.83; 95% CI, 2.77-156.8; P <.001). Intravenous analgesia was administered to treat pain in only 35 (22.0%) of the patients who had obtainable IV access. Of these patients, victims of blunt trauma were more likely to receive IV analgesia (OR=6.23; 95% CI, 1.42-27.41; P=.0067)., Conclusion: Although signs of femur fracture are recognized in the majority of cases of midshaft femur fracture, only 30% of patients were immobilized using a TS. Statistically significant differences were found in the utilization of a TS and IV analgesia administration in the setting of blunt trauma when compared to penetrating trauma. Nackenson J , Baez AA , Meizoso JP . A descriptive analysis of traction splint utilization and IV analgesia by Emergency Medical Services.Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):631-635.

Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic value of computed tomography angiography (CTA) and ventilation perfusion (V/Q) scan in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE) by means of a Bayesian statistical model., Methods: Wells criteria defined pretest probability. Sensitivity and specificity of CTA and V/Q scan for PE were derived from pooled meta-analysis data. Likelihood ratios calculated for CTA and V/Q were inserted in the nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were analyzed comparing post- and pretest probability. Comparative gain difference was calculated for CTA ADG over V/Q scan integrating ANOVA p value set at 0.05., Results: The sensitivity for CT was 86.0% (95% CI: 80.2%, 92.1%) and specificity of 93.7% (95% CI: 91.1%, 96.3%). The V/Q scan yielded a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI: 95%, 97%) and a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 96%, 98%). Bayes nomogram results for CTA were low risk and yielded a posttest probability of 71.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 374%, moderate-risk posttest probability was 85.1%, an ADG of 56.1%, and an RDG of 193.4%, and high-risk posttest probability was 95.2%, an ADG of 36.2%, and an RDG of 61.35%. The comparative gain difference for low-risk population was 46.1%; in moderate-risk 41.6%; and in high-risk a 22.1% superiority. ANOVA analysis for LR+ and LR- showed no significant difference (p = 0.8745, p = 0.9841 respectively)., Conclusions: This Bayesian model demonstrated a superiority of CTA when compared to V/Q scan for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. Low-risk patients are recognized to have a superior overall comparative gain favoring CTA.

Objective: To assess and compare the diagnostic value of lactate, procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in low, moderate, and high-risk stratified population applying Mortality in Emergency Department (MEDS) risk score using Bayesian statistical modeling., Methods: MEDS criteria was used to risk stratify into low, moderate and high risk. Each population was attributed a percentage risk, and used as pre-test probability in the Bayesian nomogram. Sensitivity and specificity lactate, PCT and CRP were attained from pooled meta-analysis data. Absolute and relative diagnostic gains were calculated., Results: Pooled diagnostic quality data obtained from a meta-analysis reflected sensitivity for PCT of 77% and specificity of 79%, for lactate sensitivity 49.1% and specificity 74.3% and CRP yielded a sensitivity of 75% and specificity 67%. likelihood ratios (LR) calculations for PCT were LR+ 3.67 and LR- 0.29; for lactate LR+ 1.88 and LR- 0.69; CRP LR+ 2.27 and LR- 0.37. When computed in Bayesian nomogram post-test probabilities for LR+ were as follows: for PCT low risk absolute gain of 11.7% and relative gain of 220%; moderate absolute gain 25.7% relative gain 148.5%; for high risk absolute gain 25.1% and relative gain 42.6%. Lactate LR+ results for low risk absolute gain of 4.7% and relative gain of 88.6%; moderate absolute gain 10.7% and relative gain 61.8%; high risk relative gain 14.1% and relative gain 23.9%. CRP results for low population and LR+ absolute gain 5.7% and relative gain 107.5%; moderate risk 14.7% absolute gain and 84.9% relative gain; high risk 77% post-test 18.1% absolute gain and 30.7% relative gain., Conclusion: Bayesian statistical model demonstrated the superior diagnostic quality of PCT. For ruling out severe disease, lactate yielded a higher benefit with increased relative gain with negative LR., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The objective of our study was to assess the diagnostic quality of low-dose computed tomography (CT) when compared to ultrasound (US) in diagnosis of urolithiasis using STONE score as a predictor of pre-test probability and the Bayesian statistical model to calculate post-test probabilities (POST) for both diagnostic tests., Methods: STONE score was used to form risk groups to obtain pre-test probabilities. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated from external data for low-dose CT and US. POST were obtained using pre-test probabilities and likelihood ratios with Bayesian nomogram. Absolute (ADG) and relative (RDG) gains in diagnostic value were calculated., Results: Calculated +LR for US was 12 and -LR was 0.32; for CT, +LR was 19 and -LR 0.04. +LR and low STONE for US yielded POST 57% and RDG 470%; intermediate STONE POST 92% and RDG 84%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. -LR and low STONE for US POST 3% and RDG -70%; intermediate POST 24% and RDG -52%; and high STONE POST 74% and RDG -17.7%. +LR and low STONE for CT POST 68% and RDG 580%; moderate STONE POST 95% and RDG 90%; and high STONE POST 99% and RDG 10%. -LR and low STONE for CT POST 0% and RDG -100%; intermediate POST 4% and RDG -92%; and high STONE POST 26% and RDG -71.1%. ANOVA calculations comparing CT vs US for +LR showed no statistical significance (P value = 0.9893; LR- P value = 0.5488)., Conclusion: Bayesian statistical analysis demonstrated slight superiority of CT scan over US on STONE score low- and moderate-risk stratified subtypes, whereas no significant advantage was seen when evaluating high-probability patients.

The objective of this study was to develop a Bayesian clinical decision support mathematical model that can assist in assessing a diagnostic utility integrating the aortic dissection detection risk score (ADD-RS) combined with the diagnostic quality of D-dimer testing., Methods: Our method uses the Bayes nomogram. Pretest probability scoring for the ADD-RS was obtained using their derived precalculated effects models. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) for D-dimer testing were obtained by meta-analysis. Posttest probability was obtained from Bayesian statistical modeling integrating low, intermediate, and high pretest for the ADD-RS and LRs for D-dimer testing. Relative (RDG) and absolute (AADG) diagnostic gains were calculated., Results: Pool meta-analysis of D-dimer data demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.99), specificity of 0.56 (95% CI, 0.51-0.60), negative LR of 0.06 (95% CI, 0.03-0.12), and positive LR of 2.43 (95% CI, 1.89-3.12). Bayesian modeling for negative LRs demonstrated posttest probabilities scores of 0.24% for low risk (AADG = 4.06% and RDG=94.42%), 3.4% for intermediate risk (AADG = 33.1% and RDG=90.68%), and 7.9% for high risk (AADG = 51.3% and RDG=86.65%)., Conclusion: The integration of the ADD-RS and D-dimer testing in a decision support scheme suggested rule-out diagnostic value and gains, mostly evidenced in the AADD-RS low and intermediate pretest probability categories. We propose further evaluating the use of this decision support scheme in a prospective model and as a potential triage tool for aortic dissection., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The objective of this study was to develop a comparative diagnostic model for computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound (US) in the assessment of acute appendicitis using Alvarado risk score as a predictor of pretest probability and Bayesian statistical model as a tool to calculate posttest probabilities for both diagnostic test. Stratification was made by applying the Alvarado score for the prediction of acute appendicitis. Likelihood ratios were calculated using sensitivity and specificity of both CT and US from a Meta-analysis. Posttest probabilities were obtained after inserting Alvarado score and likelihood ratios into Bayesian nomogram. Absolute and relative gains were calculated. ANOVA was used to assess statistical association. 4341 patients from 31 studies yielded a pooled sensitivity and specificity US of 83% (95% CI, 78%-87%) and 93% (95% CI, 90%-96%) and 94% (95% CI, 92%-95%) and 94% (95% CI, 94%-96%), respectively, for CT studies. Positive likelihood ratios (LR) for US were 12 and negative LR was 0.18; for CT +LR was 16 and -LR 0.06. Bayesian statistical modeling posttest probabilities for +LR and low Alvarado risk results yielded a posttest probability for US of 83.72% and 87.27% for CT, intermediate risk gave 95.88% and 96.88%, high risk 99.37% and 99.53 respectively. No statistical differences were found between Ultrasound and CT. This Bayesian analysis demonstrated slight superiority of CT scan over US low-risk patients, whereas no significant advantage was seen when evaluating intermediate and high risk patients. This study also favored elevated accuracy of the Alvarado score., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Unlabelled: Previous research demonstrated that shock index and respiratory rate are highly predictive of intensive care unit admissions., Objective: The objective of the study is to evaluate the integration of the prehospital sepsis project score (PSP-S) and point-of-care lactate in assisting prediction of severity of illness using Bayesian statistical modeling., Methods: The PSP-S incorporates fever (38°C [100.4°F]) allotted with 1 point, shock index greater than or equal to 0.7 given 2 points, and a respiratory rate greater than or equal to 22 breaths per minute given 1 point for a total maximum score of 4 points. The patient population was stratified based on the PSP-S: 1 point is low risk, 2 points is moderate risk, and 3 to 4 points is high risk. Percentage risk was obtained based on intensive care unit admissions and used as pretest probability. Prehospital lactate pooled data were obtained and used to calculate likelihood ratio (LR). Percentage risk used as pretest probability and LRs for prehospital lactate were charted into the Bayesian nomogram to obtain posttest probabilities. Absolute diagnostic gain (ADG) and relative diagnostic gains (RDG) were then calculated., Results: Pooled data for prehospital point of care lactate demonstrated a positive LR of 1.6 and negative LR of 0.44. Posttest probability for low risk was 16% with an ADG of 6% and RDG of 160%. Moderate risk population yielded a posttest probability of 47%, ADG of 12.5%, and RDG of 136.2%. High-risk population resulted in a posttest probability of 72%, ADG of 12%, and RDG of 120%., Conclusion: We found that PSP-S can be clinically complemented with the use of point-of-care lactate., (Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)