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1. Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Haagsma, JA, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Lucchesi, LR, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Adebayo, OM, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alghnam, SA, Aljunid, SM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asayesh, H, Assadi, R, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Balalla, S, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Baernighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Brazinova, A, Rincon, JCC, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degenhardt, L, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Dessie, GA, deVeber, GA, Dharmaratne, SD, Linh, PD, Dolan, KA, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, Zaki, MES, Endries, AY, Eskandarieh, S, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Bidgoli, HH, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Maria Haro, J, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Hijar, M, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Ivers, RQ, Jacobsen, KH, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kalani, R, Kasaeian, A, Kelbore, AG, Kengne, AP, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khoja, AT, Kiadaliri, AA, Kim, Y-E, Kim, D, Kisa, A, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kumar, M, Lalloo, R, Lam, H, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Leasher, JL, Li, S, Linn, S, Lunevicius, R, Machado, FR, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, MA, Malta, DC, Manda, A-L, Mansournia, MA, Massenburg, BB, Maulik, PK, Meheretu, HAA, Mehndiratta, MM, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, MM, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadibakhsh, R, Mohammed, S, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Montero-Zamora, PA, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morawska, L, Moreno Velasquez, I, Morrison, SD, Moschos, MM, Mousavi, SM, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Long, HN, Huong, LTN, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Olivares, PR, Orpana, HM, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pakhale, S, Park, E-K, Patton, GC, Pesudovs, K, Phillips, MR, Polinder, S, Prakash, S, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi, S, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MA, Rai, RK, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaeian, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Sabde, YD, Saddik, B, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salz, I, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Riera, LS, Milicevic, MMS, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Sawyer, SM, Saxena, S, Saylan, M, Schneider, IJC, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sheikh, A, Shen, J, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Silva, JP, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soares Filho, AM, Soriano, JB, Soshnikov, S, Soyiri, IN, Starodubov, V, Stein, DJ, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sunshine, JE, Sykes, BL, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabb, KM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tessema, GA, Thakur, JS, Khanh, BT, Bach, XT, Car, LT, Uthman, OA, Uzochukwu, BSC, Valdez, PR, Varavikova, E, Nogales Vasconcelos, AM, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, AS, Yadav, P, Yano, Y, Yenesew, MA, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zafar, S, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhao, Y, Zodpey, S, Hay, S, Lopez, AD, Mokdad, AH, Vos, T, Haagsma, JA, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Lucchesi, LR, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Adebayo, OM, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, MTE, Alahdab, F, Alghnam, SA, Aljunid, SM, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Appiah, SCY, Aremu, O, Arora, A, Asayesh, H, Assadi, R, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Balalla, S, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Baernighausen, TW, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Benjet, C, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Bose, D, Boufous, S, Brazinova, A, Rincon, JCC, Cardenas, R, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Catala-Lopez, F, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Davitoiu, DV, Degenhardt, L, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Dessie, GA, deVeber, GA, Dharmaratne, SD, Linh, PD, Dolan, KA, Driscoll, TR, Dubey, M, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, Zaki, MES, Endries, AY, Eskandarieh, S, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Gezae, KE, Gill, TK, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Bidgoli, HH, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Maria Haro, J, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Hijar, M, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Ivers, RQ, Jacobsen, KH, Jahanmehr, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Jurisson, M, Kabir, A, Kalani, R, Kasaeian, A, Kelbore, AG, Kengne, AP, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khoja, AT, Kiadaliri, AA, Kim, Y-E, Kim, D, Kisa, A, Koyanagi, A, Defo, BK, Bicer, BK, Kumar, M, Lalloo, R, Lam, H, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Leasher, JL, Li, S, Linn, S, Lunevicius, R, Machado, FR, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malik, MA, Malta, DC, Manda, A-L, Mansournia, MA, Massenburg, BB, Maulik, PK, Meheretu, HAA, Mehndiratta, MM, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, MM, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadibakhsh, R, Mohammed, S, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Mondello, S, Montero-Zamora, PA, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Morawska, L, Moreno Velasquez, I, Morrison, SD, Moschos, MM, Mousavi, SM, Murthy, S, Musa, KI, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Long, HN, Huong, LTN, Ningrum, DNA, Nirayo, YL, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oh, I-H, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Olivares, PR, Orpana, HM, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pakhale, S, Park, E-K, Patton, GC, Pesudovs, K, Phillips, MR, Polinder, S, Prakash, S, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi, S, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MA, Rai, RK, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Renzaho, AMN, Resnikoff, S, Rezaeian, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Sabde, YD, Saddik, B, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salz, I, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Riera, LS, Milicevic, MMS, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Sawyer, SM, Saxena, S, Saylan, M, Schneider, IJC, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sheikh, A, Shen, J, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shiue, I, Silva, JP, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soares Filho, AM, Soriano, JB, Soshnikov, S, Soyiri, IN, Starodubov, V, Stein, DJ, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sunshine, JE, Sykes, BL, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabb, KM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tessema, GA, Thakur, JS, Khanh, BT, Bach, XT, Car, LT, Uthman, OA, Uzochukwu, BSC, Valdez, PR, Varavikova, E, Nogales Vasconcelos, AM, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wijeratne, T, Winkler, AS, Yadav, P, Yano, Y, Yenesew, MA, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yu, C, Zafar, S, Zaidi, Z, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhao, Y, Zodpey, S, Hay, S, Lopez, AD, Mokdad, AH, and Vos, T

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Published
2020

2. Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Author

James, SL, Lucchesi, LR, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Henry, NJ, McCracken, D, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Alahdab, F, Alipour, V, Andualem, Z, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Badiye, AD, Bagherzadeh, M, Banstola, A, Baernighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhaumik, S, Bijani, A, Bukhman, G, Carvalho, F, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Nasab, MD, Hoa, TD, Huyen, PD, Endries, AY, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gebremedhin, KBB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gilani, SA, Haagsma, JA, Hamidi, S, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jayatilleke, AU, Kahsay, A, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khazaee-Pool, M, Kokubo, Y, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Malekzadeh, R, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Mangalam, S, Massenburg, BB, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miazgowski, B, Miller, TR, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Morrison, SD, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Cuong, TN, Nixon, MR, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Padubidri, JR, Polinder, S, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roro, EM, Roy, N, Safari-Faramani, R, Salamati, P, Samy, AM, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Soheili, A, Stokes, MA, Tohidinik, HR, Bach, XT, Valdez, PR, Wijeratne, T, Yisma, E, Zaidi, Z, Zamani, M, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, Mokdad, AH, James, SL, Lucchesi, LR, Bisignano, C, Castle, CD, Dingels, Z, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Henry, NJ, McCracken, D, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Alahdab, F, Alipour, V, Andualem, Z, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Badiye, AD, Bagherzadeh, M, Banstola, A, Baernighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bhaumik, S, Bijani, A, Bukhman, G, Carvalho, F, Crowe, CS, Dalal, K, Daryani, A, Nasab, MD, Hoa, TD, Huyen, PD, Endries, AY, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Gebremedhin, KBB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gilani, SA, Haagsma, JA, Hamidi, S, Hostiuc, S, Househ, M, Igumbor, EU, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jayatilleke, AU, Kahsay, A, Kapoor, N, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khazaee-Pool, M, Kokubo, Y, Lopez, AD, Madadin, M, Majdan, M, Maled, V, Malekzadeh, R, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Mangalam, S, Massenburg, BB, Meles, HG, Menezes, RG, Meretoja, TJ, Miazgowski, B, Miller, TR, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Morrison, SD, Negoi, I, Trang, HN, Son, HN, Cuong, TN, Nixon, MR, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Padubidri, JR, Polinder, S, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rezapour, A, Rickard, J, Roro, EM, Roy, N, Safari-Faramani, R, Salamati, P, Samy, AM, Satpathy, M, Sawhney, M, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Sepanlou, SG, Shigematsu, M, Soheili, A, Stokes, MA, Tohidinik, HR, Bach, XT, Valdez, PR, Wijeratne, T, Yisma, E, Zaidi, Z, Zamani, M, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, S, and Mokdad, AH

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. RESULTS: Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Published
2020

3. Past, present, and future of global health financing: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050

Author

Chang, AY, Cowling, K, Micah, AE, Chapin, A, Chen, CS, Ikilezi, G, Sadat, N, Tsakalos, G, Wu, J, Younker, T, Zhao, Y, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Ahmed, AE, Alam, K, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ammar, W, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Bagherzadeh, M, Baernighausen, TW, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Belay, YB, Belay, YA, Belete, H, Berbada, DA, Berman, AE, Beuran, M, Bijani, A, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Alberto Camera, L, Catala-Lopez, F, Chauhan, BG, Constantin, M-M, Crowe, CS, Cucu, A, Dalal, K, De Neve, J-W, Deipatine, S, Demeke, FM, Huyen, PD, Dubey, M, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Fakhar, M, Fazaeli, AA, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Galan, A, Gamkrelidze, A, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Goginashvili, K, Haakenstad, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hassen, HY, Hay, S, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, James, SL, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kadel, R, Matin, BK, Kasaeian, A, Kasaye, HK, Kassaw, MW, Karyani, AK, Khabiri, R, Khan, J, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kohler, S, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Leung, R, Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansourian, M, Mantovani, LG, Massenburg, BB, Mckee, M, Mehta, V, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohajer, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mousavi, SM, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Nangia, V, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Son, HN, Nosratnejad, S, Oladimeji, O, Olgiati, S, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Pana, A, Pereira, DM, Piroozi, B, Prada, S, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Mcwaghar, V, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Ranta, A, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, S, Roro, EM, Rostami, A, Rubino, S, Salahshoor, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sao Jose, BP, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Sepanlou, SG, Sepehrimanesh, M, Sheikh, A, Shrime, MG, Sisay, S, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Srinivasan, V, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Torre, A, Tovani-Palone, MR, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, Van Boven, JFM, Vargas, V, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Giang, TV, Wolfe, CDA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Bin Zaman, S, Zangeneh, A, Zegeye, EA, Ziapour, A, Chew, A, Murray, CJL, Dieleman, JL, Chang, AY, Cowling, K, Micah, AE, Chapin, A, Chen, CS, Ikilezi, G, Sadat, N, Tsakalos, G, Wu, J, Younker, T, Zhao, Y, Zlavog, BS, Abbafati, C, Ahmed, AE, Alam, K, Alipour, V, Aljunid, SM, Almalki, MJ, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ammar, W, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Awasthi, A, Ayanore, MA, Azari, S, Azzopardi-Muscat, N, Bagherzadeh, M, Baernighausen, TW, Baune, BT, Bayati, M, Belay, YB, Belay, YA, Belete, H, Berbada, DA, Berman, AE, Beuran, M, Bijani, A, Busse, R, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Alberto Camera, L, Catala-Lopez, F, Chauhan, BG, Constantin, M-M, Crowe, CS, Cucu, A, Dalal, K, De Neve, J-W, Deipatine, S, Demeke, FM, Huyen, PD, Dubey, M, El Tantawi, M, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Fakhar, M, Fazaeli, AA, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Galan, A, Gamkrelidze, A, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Ghashghaee, A, Goginashvili, K, Haakenstad, A, Bidgoli, HH, Hamidi, S, Harb, HL, Hasanpoor, E, Hassen, HY, Hay, S, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Rad, EH, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Jakovljevic, M, Jalali, A, James, SL, Jonas, JB, Jurisson, M, Kadel, R, Matin, BK, Kasaeian, A, Kasaye, HK, Kassaw, MW, Karyani, AK, Khabiri, R, Khan, J, Khan, MN, Khang, Y-H, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kohler, S, Koyanagi, A, Krohn, KJ, Leung, R, Lim, L-L, Lorkowski, S, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansourian, M, Mantovani, LG, Massenburg, BB, Mckee, M, Mehta, V, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, TJ, Kostova, NM, Miller, TR, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mohajer, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Morrison, SD, Mousavi, SM, Muthupandian, S, Nagarajan, AJ, Nangia, V, Cuong, TN, Huong, LTN, Son, HN, Nosratnejad, S, Oladimeji, O, Olgiati, S, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Otstavnov, SS, Pana, A, Pereira, DM, Piroozi, B, Prada, S, Qorbani, M, Rabiee, M, Rabiee, N, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Mcwaghar, V, Ram, U, Ranabhat, CL, Ranta, A, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rezaei, S, Roro, EM, Rostami, A, Rubino, S, Salahshoor, M, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Santos, JV, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sao Jose, BP, Savic, M, Schwendicke, F, Sepanlou, SG, Sepehrimanesh, M, Sheikh, A, Shrime, MG, Sisay, S, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Srinivasan, V, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Torre, A, Tovani-Palone, MR, Bach, XT, Khanh, BT, Undurraga, EA, Valdez, PR, Van Boven, JFM, Vargas, V, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vladimirov, SK, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Giang, TV, Wolfe, CDA, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Bin Zaman, S, Zangeneh, A, Zegeye, EA, Ziapour, A, Chew, A, Murray, CJL, and Dieleman, JL

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more reso

Published
2019

4. Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Author

Zunt, JR, Kassebaum, NJ, Blake, N, Glennie, L, Wright, C, Nichols, E, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Adamu, AA, Adib, MG, Ahmadi, A, Ahmed, MB, Aichour, AN, Aichour, I, Aichour, MTE, Akseer, N, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alene, KA, Aljunid, SM, AlMazora, MA, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, N, Animut, MD, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, MG, Asghar, RJ, Avokpaho, EFGA, Awasthi, A, Badali, H, Barac, A, Baernighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Bedi, N, Belachew, AB, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Butt, ZA, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Chitheer, A, Choi, J-YJ, Christopher, DJ, Dang, AK, Daryani, A, Demoz, GT, Djalalinia, S, Huyen, PD, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, EE, Zaki, MES, Elyazar, IR, Fakhim, H, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Ganji, M, Gebre, AK, Gebremeskel, A, Gessner, BD, Gopalani, SV, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Hailu, GB, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hay, S, Henok, A, Irvani, SSN, Jha, RP, Jurisson, M, Kahsay, A, Karami, M, Karch, A, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, TD, Kefale, AT, Khader, YS, Khalil, IA, Khan, EA, Khang, Y-H, Khubchandani, J, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Lami, FH, Levi, M, Li, S, Loy, CT, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Mantovani, LG, Martins-Melo, FR, McAlinden, C, Mehta, V, Melese, A, Memish, ZA, Mengistu, G, Mestrovic, T, Mezgebe, HB, Miazgowski, B, Milosevic, B, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moradi, G, Moraga, P, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murthy, S, Mustafa, G, Naheed, A, Naik, G, Newton, CRJ, Nirayo, YL, Nixon, MR, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, TO, Olusanya, BO, Ortiz, JR, Owolabi, MO, Patel, S, Pinilla-Monsalve, GD, Postma, MJ, Qorbani, M, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Reiner, RC, Renzaho, AMN, Rezai, MS, Roba, KT, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Safari, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Samy, AM, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Shafieesabet, A, Shaikh, MA, Sharif, M, Shigematsu, M, Si, S, Skiadaresi, E, Smith, M, Somayaji, R, Sufiyan, MB, Tawye, NY, Temsah, M-H, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Khanh, BT, Ukwaja, KN, Ullah, I, Vujcic, IS, Wagnew, F, Waheed, Y, Weldegwergs, KG, Winkler, AS, Wiyeh, AB, Wiysonge, CS, Wyper, GMA, Yimer, EM, Yonemoto, N, Zaidi, Z, Zenebe, ZM, Feigin, VL, Vos, T, and Murray, CJL

Subjects
BACTERIAL-MENINGITIS, RISK, AFRICA, Science & Technology, Neurology & Neurosurgery, IMPACT, Clinical Neurology, UNITED-STATES, CHILDREN, 1103 Clinical Sciences, GBD 2016 Meningitis Collaborators, PNEUMOCOCCAL CONJUGATE VACCINE, HEALTH-CARE, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Neurosciences & Neurology, MENINGOCOCCAL DISEASE, 1109 Neurosciences, Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Abstract

Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426–458 514) to 318 400 (265 218–408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19–2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46–3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585–978 219) globally, but decreased the most (–49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076–533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358–221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682–178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06–1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787–839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04—1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20—28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world.

Published
2018

5. Rheumatic Heart Disease-Attributable Mortality at Ages 5-69 Years in Fiji: A Five-Year, National, Population-Based Record-Linkage Cohort Study

Author

Vinetz, JM, Parks, T, Kado, J, Miller, AE, Ward, B, Heenan, R, Colquhoun, SM, Baernighausen, TW, Mirabel, M, Bloom, DE, Bailey, RL, Tukana, IN, Steer, AC, Vinetz, JM, Parks, T, Kado, J, Miller, AE, Ward, B, Heenan, R, Colquhoun, SM, Baernighausen, TW, Mirabel, M, Bloom, DE, Bailey, RL, Tukana, IN, and Steer, AC

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is considered a major public health problem in developing countries, although scarce data are available to substantiate this. Here we quantify mortality from RHD in Fiji during 2008-2012 in people aged 5-69 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using 1,773,999 records derived from multiple sources of routine clinical and administrative data, we used probabilistic record-linkage to define a cohort of 2,619 persons diagnosed with RHD, observed for all-cause mortality over 11,538 person-years. Using relative survival methods, we estimated there were 378 RHD-attributable deaths, almost half of which occurred before age 40 years. Using census data as the denominator, we calculated there were 9.9 deaths (95% CI 9.8-10.0) and 331 years of life-lost (YLL, 95% CI 330.4-331.5) due to RHD per 100,000 person-years, standardised to the portion of the WHO World Standard Population aged 0-69 years. Valuing life using Fiji's per-capita gross domestic product, we estimated these deaths cost United States Dollar $6,077,431 annually. Compared to vital registration data for 2011-2012, we calculated there were 1.6-times more RHD-attributable deaths than the number reported, and found our estimate of RHD mortality exceeded all but the five leading reported causes of premature death, based on collapsed underlying cause-of-death diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Rheumatic heart disease is a leading cause of premature death as well as an important economic burden in this setting. Age-standardised death rates are more than twice those reported in current global estimates. Linkage of routine data provides an efficient tool to better define the epidemiology of neglected diseases.

Published
2015

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