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While it is known that sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the subtropical northeastern Pacific (SNEP) can be forced by wintertime atmospheric variability, the region over which atmospheric variability plays the significant driving role remains to be elucidated. Based on observational data during 1900–2014 and a first-order autoregressive model, we show that SNEP SST variability is dominantly forced by wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, slightly north of the SNEP. Atmospheric variability south of the SNEP, however, does not play the dominant driving role because of atmospheric barotropic response that partially offsets baroclinic Gill response over the ocean surface. Further, by decomposing North Pacific atmospheric variability into tropical Pacific (TP)-forced and non-TP-forced components using a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment, we find that the leading modes in the two components comparably contribute to forcing SNEP SST in the historical record. Further analyses show that their contribution is unstable on decadal timescales, with stronger forcing effect from TP-forced Aleutian Low (AL) variability before the 1930s and after the 1980s. Such non-stationary forcing effect is primarily attributed to the relative amplitude between TP-forced AL and non-TP-forced atmospheric variability, which would affect the predictability of SNEP SST variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dependence of the large-scale structure of oceanographic fields on short-term variations in atmospheric forcing (AF) at the ocean surface has been studied. Estimates of this dependence were obtained by comparing the results of two numerical experiments with the NEMO model in the ORCA1 configuration used as a computational core in the data assimilation system at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The experiments similar in all other respects differed only in the discreteness of the AF data: 3–24 hours in the main experiment and 1 month in the experiment with time-averaged AF. Large-scale characteristics were compared: kinetic energy averaged over large regions, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, meridional heat transport, mixed layer depth, and sea ice volume. It has been shown that neglecting high-frequency AF variability can significantly distort the long-term evolution of oceanographic fields reproduced by ocean models and thereby affect the quality of model forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The bidirectional mass exchange between the Marmara Sea and the Aegean Sea provides one part of the critical hydrodynamic links between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. In this study, we examined exchange in the Dardanelles based on a 3-D numerical model simulation covering an 11-year period under realistic atmospheric forcing. The model includes the Black Sea, the Marmara Sea, and a part of the Aegean Sea to include the remote effects of basin dynamics. The main features as one-, two-, and three-layered flow structures are successfully reproduced by the model in comparison to earlier observations. It is found that the strait is subject to submaximal exchange by only one control near the Nara Pass. According to long-term modeling results, most variability occurs on synoptic time scales, and wind stress has a dominant role in those variations. The seasonal and interannual variability of exchange flow is relatively low and displays a close relationship with freshwater input to the Black Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unprecedented North Pacific marine heatwave (known as the Blob) in 2013/14 winter has attracted many research interests, considering its dramatic impacts on the ecosystem and regional climate. Meanwhile, the summertime Blob events have also emerged in recent decades. In this study, we identified four Blob events in the summer of 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2020 during the Satellite Era. Here we show diversity existed in the formation of summer Blob events. The atmospheric forcing responsible for the Blob is the weakened North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), which contributes significantly to the Blob in 2019 via anomalous shortwave radiation. However, the atmospheric forcing alone cannot fully explain all the Blob events, especially the one in 2020 when the weakened NPSH is absent. Other than the weakened NPSH, the preceding spring sea surface temperature (SST) warm anomalies in the northeast Pacific can persist into the following summer due to anomalous mixed layer heat content and significantly contribute to the Blob. A binary linear regression model considering both the SST persistence and the NPSH is constructed, successfully reproducing the observed Blob variation for the period 1982–2020 (r = 0.76, p < 0.001). The model improves the ability to capture the warm peaks in all four summer Blob events, which either single factor cannot fully depict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction. For the effective use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), it is required to take into account the impact of atmospheric environmental factors. Based on the existing level of development of the research and methodological apparatus, it is impossible to determine the probability of damage to the UAV under the conditions of complex exposure to atmospheric environmental factors and to assess the feasibility of further performance of the flight task. Violation of the UAV operation process is caused by the influence of atmospheric precipitation, wind and temperature conditions of the environment. The work aims at the development of a methodology for determining the probability of damage to UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors, as well as to evaluate the performance of the software package implementing the developed algorithm using triangular, trapezoidal, pentagonal, and Gaussian membership functions.Materials and Methods. A technique is proposed that makes it possible, using the theory of fuzzy logic, to determine the probability of damage to the UAV with inaccuracies and uncertainties in the description of atmospheric effects of the environment. It takes into account possible atmospheric forcing and enables to determine the probability of damage to the UAV under various atmospheric influences. The computational complexity of the algorithm implementing the technique depends significantly on the number of qualitative assessments of atmospheric impacts on UAV.Results. A method for determining the probability of damage to UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors based on fuzzy sets (triangular, trapezoidal, pentagonal, Gaussian) was proposed and tested. The use of fuzzy sets for estimating the conditions of the UAV application environment was described. An algorithm was developed to determine the probability of damage to the UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors. A computational experiment was carried out to determine the complexity of calculating the probability of UAV damage as a result of atmospheric forcing under various environmental conditions: «moderate conditions» at a wind speed of 3 m/s, precipitation intensity of 0.8 mm/h, and air temperature of 5 °C; «very heavy conditions» of the external environment at a wind speed of 12 m/s, precipitation intensity 3.5 mm/h, and air temperature of –6 ºС. It was established that the use of triangular membership functions to calculate the probability of damage to the UAV as a result of atmospheric forcing provided higher performance compared to the rest ones (trapezoidal, pentagonal, Gaussian).Discussion and Conclusions. The values of the UAV damage probabilities obtained during the implementation of the methodology under atmospheric environmental influences can be used at the pre-flight preparation stage and during the flight to assess the feasibility of further performance of the flight task. Based on the analysis of the application of the considered forms of membership functions, recommendations for their application are given. The use of algorithms with triangular membership functions will provide high performance of UAV control systems (UAV CS).

A comparison of simulations of the global ocean circulation with the NEMO/SI3 model with two types of atmospheric forcing (DFS5.2 and CFSR/CDAS), as well as with two grid resolutions (1° and 0.25°) is presented. The objective of such comparison is to substantiate a choice of a source of data on atmospheric forcing and a grid resolution for use in an operational system for the ocean state diagnosing and forecasting. It is shown that all considered simulations reproduce main large-scale ocean characteristics. The CFSR/CDAS merged meteorological dataset, which provides better agreement with actual data, is quite suitable for specifying atmospheric forcing in retrospective and operational applications of the NEMO/SI3 model, including its use as a computational core in the data assimilation system within the framework of the analysis–forecast–analysis sequential assimilation scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America. Plain Language Summary: In addition to many rather slow processes such as the melting of glaciers, rapid mass redistribution related to the weather also measurably affect the Earth's gravity field. The ability of monitoring liquid freshwater changes within the Earth system from the satellite gravity missions GRACE (2002–2017) and GRACE‐FO (since 2018) relies on accurate background models of mass variability in atmosphere and oceans for both tidal and non‐tidal processes. Atmospheric tides are primarily excited in the middle atmosphere by solar energy absorption at periods of 24 hr and its overtones. We find additional tidal signatures in the atmosphere excited by periodic deformations of both crust and sea‐surface of the Earth. We thus introduce here a new data set for the atmospheric tides and their corresponding oceanic response that features both more waves and higher accuracy than other background models previously used for the processing of GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite gravimetry data. Key Points: Sixteen relevant tidal lines identified in hourly data from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysisDedicated simulations with a high‐resolution global hydrodynamic model to simulate ocean tides with atmospheric influenceNew tidal models reduce pre‐fit residuals in GRACE‐FO Laser Ranging Interferometer data [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America.

A regional, high-resolution reanalysis was analyzed to explore extreme heat loss events in the Northern Red Sea (NRS) and their links to specific regional atmospheric circulation patterns. Such events are determinant for the overturning circulation of the Red Sea and occur frequently between November and March, with maximum frequency during December and January. During these events, the most intense heat loss, often with daily-averaged values lower than -1000 W/m2, is found over the southern half of the Gulf of Aqaba and along the western coastline of the open NRS. Analyses of the spatial modes of variability of these events suggest that the majority of them extend over the entire NRS in an almost uniform way; however, secondary, nonuniform patterns related to regional adjustment in the wind field are also identified. The uniform cold outbursts are associated with distinct atmospheric circulation patterns, which favor the transfer of cold air masses from higher latitudes over the eastern Mediterranean Sea via a strong northwest wind field. Nonuniform events affect considerable parts of the NRS and occur when cold and dry air masses reach the NRS through the Middle East and the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula. The regional sea level pressure drives a clockwise rotation of the wind field that ultimately blows from the northeast/east direction. This rotation of the wind field favors local intensification and lee areas defined by the complex topography and characteristic gaps in the mountain chain along the eastern coastline of the NRS, reflecting the differentiations in the spatial distribution of the heat flux minima.

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events.

Characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) were investigated using the daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature for 37 years (1982–2018), focusing on seasonal changes and regional differences. The summer MHWs occur 54% more frequently (2.7 events/decade) in a relatively wide area than in other seasons. The strong (up to 3.7 °C) and long-lasting (up to 38 days/event) winter MHWs are concentrated along the subpolar front (SPF) in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) where the MHWs are 20% longer (2.2 days/event) than in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). The summer MHWs are primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation associated with reduced cloud cover and latent cooling from the weakened wind over the western flank of developing subtropical highs. Driving mechanisms of the winter MHWs differ by region. The YECS MHWs occur mainly due to the atmospheric processes associated with weakening continental highs, while the EJS MHWs are largely driven by the northward shift of the SPF. Although large-scale atmospheric processes primarily drive the summer MHWs occurring in a wide area in the EAMS, our findings suggest that ocean processes can be major contributors to intensified MHW generation in limited areas, especially in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we isolate groundwater responses to atmospheric forcing of surface water levels by relating anomalies in coastal aquifer hydraulic head time‐series to weather events. Our results demonstrate that atmospheric forcing has a greater effect on groundwater exchange and extended residence time over astronomical tidal pumping at times. During winter, atmospheric groundwater forcing was associated with winter storm passage and had a recurrence interval of approximately 7 days. During summer, atmospheric groundwater forcing was limited to weak diurnal atmospheric convection and infrequent tropical cyclone activity. Because winter storms and tropical cyclones commonly produce precipitation, atmospheric groundwater forcing can synergize with the timing of meteoric recharge producing periods of intense submarine groundwater discharge. Plain Language Summary: Groundwater discharges from the seafloor into coastal waters through a process known as submarine groundwater discharge. Submarine groundwater discharge is composed of fresh water from the land and recirculated seawater drawn into the seafloor by ocean processes. In this manuscript, we document the effect of shifting winds brought about by winter storms, tropical cyclones, and land/sea breezes on seawater recirculation through seafloor sediments. Strong onshore winds cause regional mounding of seawater against the shoreline and infiltration into coastal aquifers while offshore winds allow groundwater to drain from the seafloor back into coastal waters. This effect we term, atmospheric groundwater forcing, leads to periods of intense submarine groundwater discharge following tropical cyclones and winter storms. Key Points: Atmospheric groundwater forcing is a seawater recirculation process driven by wind forcing of coastal surface water levelsAtmospheric groundwater forcing is seasonally associated with winter storms, tropical cyclones, and atmospheric convection cyclesThe timing of atmospheric groundwater forcing can synergize with meteoric recharge leading to subterranean estuary flushing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water level measurements at four sub-basins of a highly dissipative coastal lagoon were used to study variability at tidal and subtidal scales and to determine whether atmospheric forcing influenced variations in water level at tidal scales. The amplitude of the main astronomic constituents, which were diurnal, attenuated quickly to <5% by the second sub-basin. The attenuation was represented well by an analytical solution that described a damped wave. The semidiurnal constituent with a period of 12 h (S2), however, decreased to 50% of the lagoon's entrance amplitude and then increased to 60% by the fourth sub-basin. Reproduction of this S2 behavior by the analytical model required unrealistically low signal attenuation, much lower than for the other semidiurnal constituent (12.42 h, M2). This behavior suggested that the S2 amplification was non-gravitational and related to semidiurnal atmospheric forcing, which was dominated by barometric pressure. Such suggestion was confirmed by coherence and wavelet coherence analysis and by the fact that the largest overtide was related to the interaction between S2, instead of M2, and the diurnal constituent. This study documents that a highly dissipative coastal lagoon becomes forced semidiurnally by barometric pressure toward its head. Subtidal water levels were studied with empirical orthogonal functions, revealing 2 modes that explained ~85% of the variance. Mode 1 was related to northerly winds ('Nortes') and mode 2 was linked to the Trade winds that dominate the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite being the largest High Nitrate Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region, the Southern Ocean sustains phytoplankton blooms through the summer, when presumably there is sufficient light, but nutrients in the euphotic zone have been depleted. Physical processes that can potentially supply nutrients from subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and promote phytoplankton growth in the summer, have not been fully explored at the large scale. By means of a correlation analysis, this study combines high-resolution satellite observations of ocean color, winds and sea surface temperature, surface heat fluxes from reanalysis and Argo mixed-layer depth (MLD) estimates to explore the role of the atmospheric forcing (i.e., winds and surface heat fluxes) on upper ocean processes that may help sustain high satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) through the summer. Two physical processes that can supply nutrients to the euphotic zone are: MLD deepening, caused by wind-mixing and/or surface cooling, and Ekman pumping driven by the wind stress curl. We find that high winds correlate with high Chl-a over broad open ocean areas, suggesting that transient MLD deepening through wind-mixing (i.e., wind-driven entrainment) helps sustain high Chl-a. Wind-driven entrainment plays a dominant role on time scales associated with atmospheric synoptic storms (i.e.,

Despite being the largest High Nitrate Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region, the Southern Ocean sustains phytoplankton blooms through the summer, when presumably there is sufficient light, but nutrients in the euphotic zone have been depleted. Physical processes that can potentially supply nutrients from subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and promote phytoplankton growth in the summer, have not been fully explored at the large scale. By means of a correlation analysis, this study combines high-resolution satellite observations of ocean color, winds and sea surface temperature, surface heat fluxes from reanalysis and Argo mixed-layer depth (MLD) estimates to explore the role of the atmospheric forcing (i.e., winds and surface heat fluxes) on upper ocean processes that may help sustain high satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) through the summer. Two physical processes that can supply nutrients to the euphotic zone are: MLD deepening, caused by wind-mixing and/or surface cooling, and Ekman pumping driven by the wind stress curl. We find that high winds correlate with high Chl-a over broad open ocean areas, suggesting that transient MLD deepening through wind-mixing (i.e., wind-driven entrainment) helps sustain high Chl-a. Wind-driven entrainment plays a dominant role on time scales associated with atmospheric synoptic storms (i.e.,

Daily means sea level has been computed from hourly observations at Aden and Djibouti for the period of 2011–2014 to study seasonal variability in sea level in the western Gulf of Aden. This variability is investigated against the following controlling factors: sea level pressure, wind, and steric sea level. Variability in sea level at Aden and Djibouti shows strong seasonality with higher sea level in winter and lower sea level in summer with a range up to about 35 cm. The high-frequency variability in sea level agrees with variability in pressure, especially during winter following normal inverse barometric relation. Cross-shore wind affects sea level variability in Djibouti more than that in Aden, while along-shore wind plays a significant role in sea level variability at Aden. Daily steric sea level for both stations play a significant role in seasonal sea level anomaly (SLA) variability. Both stations shows that strong signals are the annual and semiannual, while small frequencies are negligible in comparison. For Aden and Djibouti stations, steric sea level is the dominant factor with a determination coefficient (DC) of 0.73, and 0.71, respectively. Along-shore wind has the second higher contribution for Aden with (DC) of about 0.3. The cross-shore wind component has the second highest contribution on Djibouti SLA with a DC of about 0.3, while for Aden, this factor has no effect on SLA. Sea level pressure (SLP) contribution is clearly seen in short-period variability for both stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) were investigated using the daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature for 37 years (1982–2018), focusing on seasonal changes and regional differences. The summer MHWs occur 54% more frequently (2.7 events/decade) in a relatively wide area than in other seasons. The strong (up to 3.7 °C) and long-lasting (up to 38 days/event) winter MHWs are concentrated along the subpolar front (SPF) in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) where the MHWs are 20% longer (2.2 days/event) than in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). The summer MHWs are primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation associated with reduced cloud cover and latent cooling from the weakened wind over the western flank of developing subtropical highs. Driving mechanisms of the winter MHWs differ by region. The YECS MHWs occur mainly due to the atmospheric processes associated with weakening continental highs, while the EJS MHWs are largely driven by the northward shift of the SPF. Although large-scale atmospheric processes primarily drive the summer MHWs occurring in a wide area in the EAMS, our findings suggest that ocean processes can be major contributors to intensified MHW generation in limited areas, especially in winter.

Sinking particles are a critical conduit for the export of organic material from surface waters to the deep ocean. Despite their importance in oceanic carbon cycling, little is known about the biotic composition and seasonal variability of sinking particles reaching abyssal depths. Herein, sinking particle flux data, collected in the deep Ierapetra Basin for a three-year period (June 2010 to June 2013), have been examined at the light of atmospheric and oceanographic parameters and main mass components (lithogenic, opal, carbonates, nitrogen, and organic carbon), stable isotopes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and source-specific lipid biomarkers. Our aim is to improve the current understanding of the dynamics of particle fluxes and the linkages between atmospheric dynamics and ocean biogeochemistry shaping the export of organic matter in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Overall, particle fluxes showed seasonality and interannual variability over the studied period. POC fluxes peaked in spring April–May 2012 (12.2 mg m−2 d−1) related with extreme atmospheric forcing. Summer export was approximately fourfold higher than mean wintertime, fall and springtime (except for the episodic event of spring 2012), fueling efficient organic carbon sequestration. Lipid biomarkers indicate a high relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic, marine- and land-derived POC during both spring (April–May) and summer (June–July) reaching the deep-sea floor. Moreover, our results highlight that both seasonal and episodic pulses are crucial for POC export, while the coupling of extreme weather events and atmospheric deposition can trigger the influx of both marine labile carbon and anthropogenic compounds to the deep Levantine Sea. Finally, the comparison of time series data of sinking particulate flux with the corresponding biogeochemical parameters data previously reported for surface sediment samples from the deep-sea shed light on the benthic–pelagic coupling in the study area. Thus, this study underscores that accounting the seasonal and episodic pulses of organic carbon into the deep sea is critical in modeling the depth and intensity of natural and anthropogenic POC sequestration, and for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle.

Meteotsunamis are long waves generated by displacement of a water body due to atmospheric pressure disturbances that have similar spatial and temporal characteristics to landslide tsunamis. NAMI DANCE that solves the nonlinear shallow water equations is a widely used numerical model to simulate tsunami waves generated by seismic origin. Several validation studies showed that it is highly capable of representing the generation, propagation and nearshore amplification processes of tsunami waves, including inundation at complex topography and basin resonance. The new module of NAMI DANCE that uses the atmospheric pressure and wind forcing as the other inputs to simulate meteotsunami events is developed. In this paper, the analytical solution for the generation of ocean waves due to the propagating atmospheric pressure disturbance is obtained. The new version of the code called NAMI DANCE SUITE is validated by comparing its results with those from analytical solutions on the flat bathymetry. It is also shown that the governing equations for long wave generation by atmospheric pressure disturbances in narrow bays and channels can be written similar to the 1D case studied for tsunami generation and how it is integrated into the numerical model. The analytical solution of the linear shallow water model is defined, and results are compared with numerical solutions. A rectangular shaped flat bathymetry is used as the test domain to model the generation and propagation of ocean waves and the development of Proudman resonance due to moving atmospheric pressure disturbances. The simulation results with different ratios of pressure speed to ocean wave speed (Froude numbers) considering sub-critical, critical and super-critical conditions are presented. Fairly well agreements between analytical solutions and numerical solutions are obtained. Additionally, basins with triangular (lateral) and stepwise shelf (longitudinal) cross sections on different slopes are tested. The amplitudes of generated waves at different time steps in each simulation are presented with discussions considering the channel characteristics. These simulations present the capability of NAMI DANCE SUITE to model the effects of bathymetric conditions such as shelf slope and local bathymetry on wave amplification due to moving atmospheric pressure disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air temperature and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this variability and, in particular, whether it is internal to the ocean‐atmosphere system or is forced by external factors (natural and anthropogenic). Here we present a temperature record, obtained using the Sr/Ca ratio measured in a skeleton of a sclerosponge, that shows agreement with the instrumental record over the past 150 years as well as multidecadal temperature variability over the last 600 years. Comparison with climate simulations of the last millennium shows that large cooling events recorded, in the sclerosponge, are consistent with natural (primarily volcanic activity) and anthropogenic forcings. There are, however, multidecadal periods not connected to current estimates of external forcing over the last millennium allowing for alternative explanations, such as internally driven changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Key Points: A high‐resolution 600‐year proxy temperature record from the subtropical Atlantic shows multidecadal temperature variabilityIn both models and observations, surface temperatures at this site are reflective of basin‐wide multidecadal variabilityComparison with Last Millennium climate model simulations shows the fingerprint of volcanically induced cooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea, strategically situated across a dynamic frontier line that separates two regions with different climates (Europe and North Africa), has been the focus of attention of many studies dealing with its thermohaline circulation, deep water formation processes or heat and freshwater budgets. Large-scale atmospheric forcing has been found to play an important role in these topics and attention has been renewed in climatic indices that can be used as a proxy for atmospheric variability. Among them, the North Atlantic oscillation, the East Atlantic or the East Atlantic–West Russia patterns have been widely addressed but much less attention has been devoted to a Mediterranean mode, the Mediterranean oscillation. This overview summarizes the recent advances that have been achieved in the understanding of these climatic indices and their influence on the functioning of the Mediterranean from a physical point of view. The important role of the Mediterranean oscillation is emphasized and the most relevant aspects of the other indices are revisited and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the ability of different gridded rainfall datasets to plausibly represent the spatiotemporal patterns of multiple hydrological processes (i.e. streamflow, actual evaporation, soil moisture and terrestrial water storage) for large-scale hydrological modelling in the predominantly semi-arid Volta River Basin (VRB) in West Africa. Seventeen precipitation products based on satellite data (TAMSAT, CHIRPS, ARC, RFE, MSWEP, GSMaP, PERSIANN-CDR, CMORPH-CRT, TRMM 3B42, TRMM 3B42RT) and on reanalysis (JRA-55, EWEMBI, WFDEI-GPCC, WFDEI-CRU, MERRA-2, PGF and ERA5) are compared as input for the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). To assess the model sensitivity to meteorological forcing during rainfall partitioning into evaporation and runoff, six different temperature reanalysis datasets are used in combination with the precipitation datasets, which results in evaluating 102 combinations of rainfall-temperature input data. The model is recalibrated for each of the 102 input combinations, and the model responses are evaluated by using in-situ streamflow data and satellite remote sensing datasets from GLEAM evaporation, ESA CCI soil moisture, and GRACE terrestrial water storage. A bias-insensitive metric is used to assess the impact of meteorological forcing on the simulation of the spatial patterns of hydrological processes. The results of the process-based evaluation show that the rainfall datasets have contrasting performances across the four climatic zones present in the VRB, suggesting that, in general, basin-wide hydrological model performance might be misleading and invalid for a smaller spatial domain. No single rainfall or temperature dataset consistently ranks first in reproducing the spatiotemporal variability of all hydrological processes. A dataset that is best in reproducing the temporal dynamics is not necessarily the best for the spatial patterns. In addition, the results suggest that there is more uncertainty in representing the spatial patterns of hydrological processes than their temporal dynamics. Finally, some region-tailored datasets outperform the global datasets, thereby stressing the necessity and importance of regional evaluation studies for satellite and reanalysis meteorological datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the effects of climate change is the rise of sea level, which poses an important threat to coastal areas. Therefore, the protection and management of coastal ecosystems as well as human infrastructures and constructions require an accurate knowledge of those changes occurring at a local scale. In this study, long time series of sea level from tide gauges distributed along the southern (Atlantic) and eastern (Mediterranean) Spanish coasts were analyzed. Linear trends were calculated for two periods, from early 1940s to 2018 and from 1990 to 2018. Values for the former period ranged between 0.68 and 1.22 mm/year. These trends experienced a significant increase for the second period, when they ranged between 1.5 and 4.6 mm/year. Previous research analyzed the effect of atmospheric forcing in the Mediterranean Sea by means of 2D numerical models, and the steric contribution was directly evaluated by the integration of density along the water column. In this study, the effect of atmospheric forcing and the thermosteric and halosteric contributions on coastal sea level were empirically determined by means of statistical linear models that established which factors affected sea level at each location and what the numerical response of the observed sea level was to the contributing factors. Atmospheric pressure and the west–east component of the wind hada significant contribution to the sea level variability at most of the tide gauges. The thermosteric and halosteric components of sea level also contributed to the sea level variability at all the tide gauges, with the only exception of Alicante. Atmospheric forcing and the steric components of sea level experienced long-term trends. The combination of such trends, with the response of sea level to these factors, allowed us to estimate their contribution to the observed sea level trends. The part of these trends not explained by the atmospheric variables and the steric contributions was attributed to mass addition. Trends associated with mass addition ranged between 0.6 and 1.2 mm/year for the period 1948–2018 and between 1.0 and 4.5 mm/year for the period 1990–2018.

The accuracy of land surface hydrological simulations using an offline land surface model (LSM) depends largely on the quality of the atmospheric forcing data. In this study, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing data and the newly developed China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) forcing data are used to drive the Noah LSM with multiple parameterizations (Noah-MP) and to explore how the newly developed CLDAS forcing data improve land surface hydrological simulations over mainland China. The monthly soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulations are then compared and evaluated against observations. The results show that the Noah-MP driven by the CLDAS forcing data (referred to as CLDAS_Noah-MP) significantly improves the simulations in most cases over mainland China and its eight river basins. CLDAS_Noah-MP increases the correlation coefficient (R) values from 0.451 to 0.534 for the SM simulations at a depth range of 0–ss10 cm in mainland China, especially in the eastern monsoon area such as the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southern Yangtze River basin, and the Zhujiang River basin. Moreover, the root-mean-square error is reduced from 0.078 to 0.068 m3 m−3 for the SM simulations, and from 12.9 to 11.4 mm month−1 for the ET simulations over mainland China, especially in the southern Yangtze River basin and Zhujiang River basin. This study demonstrates that, by merging more in situ and remote sensing observations in regional atmospheric forcing data, offline LSM simulations can better simulate regional-scale land surface hydrological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variability of Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is intimately linked to ocean water mass changes. Water mass characteristics are imprinted at the ocean surface and are modulated by climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. In this study, we investigate the water mass change and their variability using an isopycnal decomposition of the OHC. For that purpose, we address the thickness and temperature changes of these water masses using both individual temperature‐salinity profiles and optimal interpolated products from Argo data. Isopycnal decomposition allows us to characterize the water mass interannual variability and decadal trends of volume and OHC. During the last decade (2006–2015), much of interannual and decadal warming is associated with Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Mode Water and Subantarctic Mode Water, particularly in the South Pacific Eastern Subtropical Mode Water, the Southeastern Indian Subantarctic Mode Water, and the Southern Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water. In contrast, Antarctic Intermediate Water in the Southern Hemisphere and North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water in the Northern Hemisphere have cooled. This OHC interannual variability is mainly explained by volume (or mass) changes of water masses related to the isopycnal heaving. The forcing mechanisms and interior dynamics of water masses are discussed in the context of the wind stress change and ocean adjustment occurring at interannual time scale. Key Points: Upper global ocean mode water are the hot spots of 2006–2015 ocean heat trendSouthern Hemisphere mode water gained volume and buoyancy over 2006–2015Wind forcing and oceanic adjustment may partly explain the interannual mode water volume change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Hudson Bay Complex is the outlet for many Canadian rivers, receiving roughly 900 km3/year of river runoff. Historically, studies found a consistent cyclonic flow year‐round in Hudson Bay, due to the geostrophic boundary current induced by river discharge and cyclonic wind forcing that was supported by available observations at that time. Using a high‐resolution ocean general circulation model, we show that in summer, the mean circulation is not cyclonic but consists of multiple small cyclonic and anticyclonic features, with the mean flow directed through the center of the bay. Absolute Dynamic Topography and velocity observations also show this seasonal flow pattern. We find that this summer circulation is driven by geostrophic currents, generated by steric height gradients, which are induced by increased river discharge during the spring freshet, and reinforced by anticyclonic seasonal wind patterns. Plain Language Summary: Knowing the direction of the currents, as well as speed, in Hudson Bay is important for understanding regional ocean flow patterns. Currents in Hudson Bay were historically thought to flow counterclockwise. We use a state‐of‐the‐art computer simulation to see if this flow pattern changes during the year. We found that in May and June, the flow pattern in eastern Hudson Bay reverses and the currents flow in a clockwise direction, while currents in western Hudson Bay still flow counterclockwise. Satellite measurements of ocean currents also show this switch in the current direction in eastern Hudson Bay. This reversal of the current direction occurs because of a change in the wind direction as well as the amount of river water entering the bay during spring (May–June). In spring, river water flowing into the bay increases because of snow melt. More river water enters southeastern Hudson Bay, in and around James Bay, causing higher sea levels in the east compared to the west. This water will flow from high to low (east to west), causing the clockwise flow pattern in summer. Key Points: The spring freshet increases the halosteric height in eastern Hudson Bay, generating a seasonal flowThis anticyclonic seasonal flow pattern is present in observations and the ocean model simulationGeostrophic flow that is reinforced by atmospheric forcing drives this springtime flow pattern [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are different in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay. Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations (E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass (<0.8 cpd) sea levels (SLSLs) at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is 65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind (SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original 36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea, strategically situated across a dynamic frontier line that separates two regions with different climates (Europe and North Africa), has been the focus of attention of many studies dealing with its thermohaline circulation, deep water formation processes or heat and freshwater budgets. Large-scale atmospheric forcing has been found to play an important role in these topics and attention has been renewed in climatic indices that can be used as a proxy for atmospheric variability. Among them, the North Atlantic oscillation, the East Atlantic or the East Atlantic–West Russia patterns have been widely addressed but much less attention has been devoted to a Mediterranean mode, the Mediterranean oscillation. This overview summarizes the recent advances that have been achieved in the understanding of these climatic indices and their influence on the functioning of the Mediterranean from a physical point of view. The important role of the Mediterranean oscillation is emphasized and the most relevant aspects of the other indices are revisited and discussed.

Abstract: Atlantic Water (AW) transported from the Nordic Seas is the major source of oceanic heat to the Arctic Ocean. Based on results from the TOPAZ reanalysis, a regional coupled ice‐ocean data assimilation system, we show that interannual variability of AW temperature in the Fram Strait (FS) is associated with the strength of the Greenland Sea gyre (GSG) circulation. The response of the GSG to the anomalous wind stress curl over the Nordic Seas modifies the AW inflow and thus influences the variability of AW temperature in the FS. A stronger (weaker) GSG circulation increases (decreases) the AW flow speed toward FS, leading to increased (decreased) oceanic heat content and higher (lower) AW temperature therein. This implies that the Nordic Seas circulation is not only a passive conduit of AW, but its response to overlying atmospheric variability can also largely influence the AW temperature in the FS by modifying the transport of AW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although atmospheric reanalyses are an extremely valuable tool to study the climate of polar regions, they suffer from large uncertainties in these data-poor areas. In this work, we examine how Antarctic sea ice biases in an ocean-sea ice model are related to these forcing uncertainties. Three experiments are conducted in which the NEMO-LIM model is driven by different atmospheric forcing sets. The minimum ice extent, the ice motion and the ice thickness are sensitive to the reanalysis chosen to drive the model, while the wintertime ice extent and inner pack concentrations are barely affected. The analysis of sea ice concentration budgets allows identifying the processes leading to differences between the experiments, and also indicates that large and similar errors compared to observations are present in all three cases. Our assessment of the influence of forcing inaccuracies on the simulated Antarctic sea ice allows disentangling two types of model biases: the ones that can be reduced thanks to better atmospheric forcings, and those that would require improvements of the physics of the ice or ocean model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Regularity and amplitude of solitons show a clear fortnightly cycle • Observed arrival times oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides) • Atmospheric forcing modulates important aspects of soliton propagation Internal waves are commonly observed in oceans and lakes where high stratification exists. In the present study in the Strait of Gibraltar, we analyse internal soliton signals recorded in different locations in their eastward propagation from their release point (Camarinal Sill) to the continental slope of the northwestern Alboran Sea. Moreover, the effect of subinertial forcing on the release of solitons is also explored. The internal soliton activity was assessed from different approaches: (i) in-situ data (i.e., current and temperature measurements or High-Frequency Radar), (ii) numerical modelling, and (iii) an analytical approach. The arrival of solitons over the continental slope of the north-western Alboran Sea showed fortnightly variability in both number (occurrence) and amplitude during spring tides when compared with during neap tides. The observed arrival times of the solitons oscillated between 14 (spring tides) and 20 h (neap tides). Nevertheless, to provide a comprehensive explanation for the fluctuations in travel times, it is necessary to consider the subinertial variability driven by atmospheric forcing, which impacts both the flow in the Strait of Gibraltar and the mesoscale patterns in the Alboran Sea (e.g., the Coastal Cyclonic Gyre). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration of peatlands after peat extraction could be a benefit to the climate system. However a multi-year ecosystem-scale assessment of net carbon (C) sequestration is needed. We investigate the climate impact of active peatland restoration (rewetting and revegetating) using a chronosequence of C gas exchange measurements across post-extraction Canadian peatlands. An atmospheric perturbation model computed the instantaneous change in radiative forcing of CO _2 and CH _4 emissions/uptake over 500 years. We found that using emission factors specific to an active restoration technique resulted in a radiative forcing reduction of 89% within 20 years compared to IPCC Tier 1 emission factors based on a wide range of rewetting activities. Immediate active restoration achieved a neutral climate impact (excluding C losses in the removed peat) about 155 years earlier than did a 20 year delay in restoration. A management plan that includes prompt active restoration is key to utilizing peatland restoration as a climate change mitigation strategy.

The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter-annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992–2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to estimate the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario for the period 2006-2100. For this estimation, the connection between the sea level variations in two selected representative locations--Stockholm and Warnemünde, and two atmospheric indices--the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is statistically analysed. Correlations of winter means between atmospheric indices, BANOS and NAO, and tide gauges are measured as 0.85 and 0.55 for Stockholm, and 0.55 and 0.17 forWarnemünde over the period 1900-2013. Assuming that the established connection remains unchanged, the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on future Baltic Sea level rise is estimated from the projections of atmospheric indices, which are constructed from the SLP outputs of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The main conclusion is that the contribution of those atmospheric modes to the Baltic Sea level rise is likely to remain small over the 21st century. Additionally, corresponding trend estimations of model realizations indicate the large influence of the internal climatic variability of the CMIP5 models on those future trends. One of the most important findings of this study is that anthropogenic forcing does not play a key role in the evolution of these atmospheric indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data for the period of 1982–2009 have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the main climatic oceanic frontal zones (OFZ; subpolar, subtropical and equatorial) associated with the large-scale atmospheric forcing. The seasonal variability of the OFZ is manifested in variations of their intensity (magnitude of the meridional gradient of SST) and latitudinal position of the cores (defined as areas of maximum SST gradient). The maximum intensity of the subpolar OFZ is observed in summer of the corresponding hemisphere, while subtropical OFZ are intensified synchronously in both hemispheres during boreal winter. Subtropical OFZ cores in both hemispheres shift synchronously to the south/north during the winter/summer of the Northern hemisphere, which is caused by the seasonal meridional migration of the areas of the maximum convergence of Ekman transport. All subpolar and subtropical OFZ reveal a pronounced quasi-decadal (7–10 years) variability, manifested in the variations of their intensity and latitudinal position of the zones’ cores. Strengthening of the SST gradient is accompanied by a displacement of the zones’ cores to the north in both hemispheres for subpolar OFZ, while subtropical OFZ cores migrate to the poles in this situation. Positive correlations between the maximum magnitude of the meridional gradient of zonally averaged SST and meridional shear of zonal wind (which is an estimate of the Ekman convergence intensity) were found for all subpolar and subtropical OFZ. Variability of the latitudinal position of subpolar OFZ cores is associated with the Ekman advection variability due to zonal wind variations (strengthening of zonal wind results in a shift of subpolar OFZ cores to the south/north in the Northern/Southern hemispheres). A period of the variability of the North Pacific equatorial OFZ is 4–5 years and is determined by the variability of the ENSO system. During the El Niño events, the sharp decrease of the intensity of the equatorial OFZ take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kim, H.; Kim, M.-S.; Kim, Y.-K.; Yoo, S.-H., and Lee, H.-J., 2017. Numerical weather prediction for mitigating the fatal loss by the meteo-tsunami incidence on the west coast of Korean Peninsula. In: Lee, J.L.; Griffiths, T.; Lotan, A.; Suh, K.-S., and Lee, J. (eds.), The 2nd International Water Safety Symposium. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 79, pp. 119-123. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The west coast of Korean Peninsula is an area where casualties and property damages by meteo-tsunamis from the Yellow Sea have been reported. A case in point is the event with an estimated maximum amplitude of 240 cm in Yeonggwang (YG) on 31 March 2007. Many studies have been carried out since then in Korea. These researches focused primarily on the oceanographic aspects ( e.g., the resonance between the atmosphere and ocean). They wanted to calculate the resonance effects by the propagation velocity and direction of meteo-tsunami. On the other hand, there were no sufficient atmospheric observation data on the sea, and it was inadequate to explain the various interactions between the atmosphere and ocean. Therefore, the weather research and forecast (WRF) model was used to predict the various detailed meteorological factors ( e.g., air pressure, wind vector) on the open sea. This was performed on representative meteo-tsunami events induced by four synoptic weather types. As a result, the numerical weather model, WRF, projected various gridded atmospheric information on the Yellow Sea, and the main atmospheric forcing ( e.g., pressure jump line, high pressure system) of the four meteo-tsunami events could be indicated. The numerical weather modeling showed the potential to predict the coastal disaster caused by the meteo-tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hatteras coastal ocean is centrally located along the east coast of the 48 contiguous United States, offshore of Cape Hatteras in a complex land/ocean/atmosphere region where major ocean currents of differing temperatures and salinities meet and interact, where the atmosphere fluctuates on a wide range of time scales, and where atmosphere-ocean interactions vary both spatially and temporally. The Gulf Stream current typically leaves its contact with the continental margin here. Continental shelf currents from the north and from the south converge here, resulting in a net shelf-to-ocean transport of shelf waters that carry important water properties and constituents. The two major drivers of these shelf currents and exchanges are the atmosphere and the oceanic Gulf Stream. Atmospheric driving of the Hatteras coastal ocean is through surface wind stress and heat flux across the air-sea interface. The complexity and importance of this region motivated the NSF-sponsored PEACH research program during 2017–2018 (PEACH: Processes driving Exchange At Cape Hatteras). In this paper, we utilize the substantial number of observations available during PEACH to describe the atmospheric forcing of the ocean then. Atmospheric conditions are described in terms of two seasons: the warm season (May to mid-September), with predominantly mild northeastward winds punctuated by occasional tropical cyclones (TCs); and the cool season (mid-September through April), with a nearly continuous, northeastward progression of energetic extratropical cyclones (ETCs) through the region. Cool season ETCs force the region with strong wind stress and ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux episodes, each with a time-scale of several days. Wind stress fluctuation magnitudes typically exceed mean stress magnitudes in each season by a factor of 3–5. These stresses account for just over 40% of the total current variability in the region, showing the wind to be a major driver of the ocean here. Atmosphere-ocean heat flux is typically into the ocean throughout the warm season (~100 W m-2); it is essentially always out of the ocean during the cool season (~500 W m-2 or more). New results herein include: southward intraseasonal oscillations of the jet stream's position drove the strongest ETCs (including one "bomb" cyclone); and during the 41 years leading up to and including PEACH, the season-averaged number and strength of atmospheric cyclones passing over the Hatteras coastal ocean have shown little long-term change. Looking ahead, the NSF Pioneer Array is scheduled to be relocated to the northern portion of the Hatteras coastal ocean in 2024, and the NASA SWOT satellite has begun its ocean topography mission, which has a ground-track cross-over here. • Wind stress and air-sea heat fluxes drive the Hatteras coastal ocean variability. • These forcing vary between the warm season and the cool season. • Cool season extratropical cyclones (ETCs) drive the strongest stresses and fluxes. • Newly discovered cascading events are a cool season shelf water export process. • Little change in ETC numbers & strength has been found in the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]