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Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

Atmospheric pollutants such as CFCs and NO$_{2}$ have been proposed as potential remotely detectable atmospheric technosignature gases. Here we investigate the potential for artificial greenhouse gases including CF$_{4}$, C$_{2}$F$_{6}$, C$_{3}$F$_{8}$, SF$_{6}$, and NF$_{3}$ to generate detectable atmospheric signatures. In contrast to passive incidental byproducts of industrial processes, artificial greenhouse gases would represent an intentional effort to change the climate of a planet with long-lived, low toxicity gases and would possess low false positive potential. An extraterrestrial civilization may be motivated to undertake such an effort to arrest a predicted snowball state on their home world or to terraform an otherwise uninhabitable terrestrial planet within their system. Because artificial greenhouse gases strongly absorb in the thermal mid-infrared window of temperate atmospheres, a terraformed planet will logically possess strong absorption features from these gases at mid-IR wavelengths ($\sim$8-12 $\mu$m), possibly accompanied by diagnostic features in the near-IR. As a proof of concept, we calculate the needed observation time to detect 1 [10](100) ppm of C$_{2}$F$_{6}$/C$_{3}$F$_{8}$/SF$_{6}$ on TRAPPIST-1f with JWST MIRI/LRS and NIRSpec. We find that a combination of 1[10](100) ppm each of C$_{2}$F$_{6}$, C$_{3}$F$_{8}$, and SF$_{6}$ can be detected with an S/N $\geq$ 5 in as few as 25[10](5) transits with MIRI/LRS. We further explore mid-infrared direct-imaging scenarios with the LIFE mission concept and find these gases are more detectable than standard biosignatures at these concentrations. Consequently, artificial greenhouse gases can be readily detected (or excluded) during normal planetary characterization observations with no additional overhead., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables; ApJ, 969, 20

The NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has returned petabytes of lunar high spatial resolution surface imagery over the past decade, impractical for humans to fully review manually. Here we develop an automated method using a deep generative visual model that rapidly retrieves scientifically interesting examples of LRO surface imagery representing the first planetary image anomaly detector. We give quantitative experimental evidence that our method preferentially retrieves anomalous samples such as notable geological features and known human landing and spacecraft crash sites. Our method addresses a major capability gap in planetary science and presents a novel way to unlock insights hidden in ever-increasing remote sensing data archives, with numerous applications to other science domains. We publish our code and data along with this paper., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures - JSTARS, accepted

Atmospheric retrievals (AR) characterize exoplanets by estimating atmospheric parameters from observed light spectra, typically by framing the task as a Bayesian inference problem. However, traditional approaches such as nested sampling are computationally expensive, thus sparking an interest in solutions based on machine learning (ML). In this ongoing work, we first explore flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML-based method for AR and find that, in our case, it is more accurate than neural posterior estimation (NPE), but less accurate than nested sampling. We then combine both FMPE and NPE with importance sampling, in which case both methods outperform nested sampling in terms of accuracy and simulation efficiency. Going forward, our analysis suggests that simulation-based inference with likelihood-based importance sampling provides a framework for accurate and efficient AR that may become a valuable tool not only for the analysis of observational data from existing telescopes, but also for the development of new missions and instruments., Comment: Accepted at the "AI to Accelerate Science and Engineering (AI2ASE)" workshop at AAAI 2024

Atmospheric retrievals (AR) of exoplanets typically rely on a combination of a Bayesian inference technique and a forward simulator to estimate atmospheric properties from an observed spectrum. A key component in simulating spectra is the pressure-temperature (PT) profile, which describes the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Current AR pipelines commonly use ad hoc fitting functions here that limit the retrieved PT profiles to simple approximations, but still use a relatively large number of parameters. In this work, we introduce a conceptually new, data-driven parameterization scheme for physically consistent PT profiles that does not require explicit assumptions about the functional form of the PT profiles and uses fewer parameters than existing methods. Our approach consists of a latent variable model (based on a neural network) that learns a distribution over functions (PT profiles). Each profile is represented by a low-dimensional vector that can be used to condition a decoder network that maps $P$ to $T$. When training and evaluating our method on two publicly available datasets of self-consistent PT profiles, we find that our method achieves, on average, better fit quality than existing baseline methods, despite using fewer parameters. In an AR based on existing literature, our model (using two parameters) produces a tighter, more accurate posterior for the PT profile than the five-parameter polynomial baseline, while also speeding up the retrieval by more than a factor of three. By providing parametric access to physically consistent PT profiles, and by reducing the number of parameters required to describe a PT profile (thereby reducing computational cost or freeing resources for additional parameters of interest), our method can help improve AR and thus our understanding of exoplanet atmospheres and their habitability., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

Cloud computing offers an opportunity to run compute-resource intensive climate models at scale by parallelising model runs such that datasets useful to the exoplanet community can be produced efficiently. To better understand the statistical distributions and properties of potentially habitable planetary atmospheres we implemented a parallelised climate modelling tool to scan a range of hypothetical atmospheres.Starting with a modern day Earth atmosphere, we iteratively and incrementally simulated a range of atmospheres to infer the landscape of the multi-parameter space, such as the abundances of biological mediated gases (\ce{O2}, \ce{CO2}, \ce{H2O}, \ce{CH4}, \ce{H2}, and \ce{N2}) that would yield `steady state' planetary atmospheres on Earth-like planets around solar-type stars. Our current datasets comprises of \numatmospheres simulated models of exoplanet atmospheres and is available publicly on the NASA Exoplanet Archive. Our scalable approach of analysing atmospheres could also help interpret future observations of planetary atmospheres by providing estimates of atmospheric gas fluxes and temperatures as a function of altitude. Such data could enable high-throughput first-order assessment of the potential habitability of exoplanetary surfaces and sepcan be a learning dataset for machine learning applications in the atmospheric and exoplanet science domain., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures

The next generation of space-based observatories will characterize the atmospheres of low-mass, temperate exoplanets with the direct-imaging technique. This will be a major step forward in our understanding of exoplanet diversity and the prevalence of potentially habitable conditions beyond the Earth. We compute a list of currently known exoplanets detectable with the mid-infrared Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) in thermal emission. We also compute the list of known exoplanets accessible to a notional design of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), observing in reflected starlight. With a pre-existing method, we processed the NASA Exoplanet Archive and computed orbital realizations for each known exoplanet. We derived their mass, radius, equilibrium temperature, and planet-star angular separation. We used the LIFEsim simulator to compute the integration time ($t_{int}$) required to detect each planet with LIFE. A planet is considered detectable if a broadband signal-to-noise ratio $S/N$=7 is achieved over the spectral range $4-18.5\mu$m in $t_{int}\leq$100 hours. We tested whether the planet is accessible to HWO in reflected starlight based on its notional inner and outer working angles, and minimum planet-to-star contrast. LIFE's reference configuration (four 2-m telescopes with 5% throughput and a nulling baseline between 10-100 m) can detect 212 known planets within 20 pc. Of these, 55 are also accessible to HWO in reflected starlight, offering a unique opportunity for synergies in atmospheric characterization. LIFE can also detect 32 known transiting exoplanets. Furthermore, 38 LIFE-detectable planets orbit in the habitable zone, of which 13 with $M_p<5M_\oplus$ and 8 with $5M_\oplus

Active comets have been detected in several exoplanetary systems, although so far only indirectly, when the dust or gas in the extended coma has transited in front of the stellar disk. The large optical surface and relatively high temperature of an active cometary coma also makes it suitable to study with direct imaging, but the angular separation is generally too small to be reachable with present-day facilities. However, future imaging facilities with the ability to detect terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of nearby systems will also be sensitive to exocomets in such systems. Here we examine several aspects of exocomet imaging, particularly in the context of the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE), which is a proposed space mission for infrared imaging and spectroscopy through nulling interferometry. We study what capabilities LIFE would have for acquiring imaging and spectroscopy of exocomets, based on simulations of the LIFE performance as well as statistical properties of exocomets that have recently been deduced from transit surveys. We find that for systems with extreme cometary activities such as beta Pictoris, sufficiently bright comets may be so abundant that they overcrowd the LIFE inner field of view. More nearby and moderately active systems such as epsilon Eridani or Fomalhaut may turn out to be optimal targets. If the exocomets have strong silicate emission features, such as in comet Hale-Bopp, it may become possible to study the mineralogy of individual exocometary bodies. We also discuss the possibility of exocomets as false positives for planets, with recent deep imaging of alpha Centauri as one hypothetical example. Such contaminants could be common, primarily among young debris disk stars, but should be rare among the main sequence population. We discuss strategies to mitigate the risk of any such false positives., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

Atmospheric retrieval studies are essential to determine the science requirements for future generation missions, such as the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE). The use of heterogeneous absorption cross-sections might be the cause of systematic effects in retrievals, which could bias a correct characterization of the atmosphere. In this contribution we quantified the impact of differences in line list provenance, broadening coefficients, and line wing cut-offs in the retrieval of an Earth twin exoplanet orbiting a Sun-like star at 10 pc from the observer, as it would be observed with LIFE. We ran four different retrievals on the same input spectrum, by varying the opacity tables that the Bayesian retrieval framework was allowed to use. We found that the systematics introduced by the opacity tables could bias the correct estimation of the atmospheric pressure at the surface level, as well as an accurate retrieval of the abundance of some species in the atmosphere (such as CO$_2$ and N$_2$O). We argue that differences in the line wing cut-off might be the major source of errors. We highlight the need for more laboratory and modeling efforts, as well as inter-model comparisons of the main radiative transfer models and Bayesian retrieval frameworks. This is especially relevant in the context of LIFE and future generation missions, to identify issues and critical points for the community to jointly work together to prepare for the analysis of the upcoming observations., Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures. Proceedings SPIE Volume 12180, Space Telescopes and Instrumentation 2022: Optical, Infrared, and Millimeter Wave; 121803L (2022)

Technosignatures refer to observational manifestations of technology that could be detected through astronomical means. Most previous searches for technosignatures have focused on searches for radio signals, but many current and future observing facilities could also constrain the prevalence of some non-radio technosignatures. This search could thus benefit from broader participation by the astronomical community, as contributions to technosignature science can also take the form of negative results that provide statistically meaningful quantitative upper limits on the presence of a signal. This paper provides a synthesis of the recommendations of the 2020 TechnoClimes workshop, which was an online event intended to develop a research agenda to prioritize and guide future theoretical and observational studies technosignatures. The paper provides a high-level overview of the use of current and future missions to detect exoplanetary technosignatures at ultraviolet, optical, or infrared wavelengths, which specifically focuses on the detectability of atmospheric technosignatures, artificial surface modifications, optical beacons, space engineering and megastructures, and interstellar flight. This overview does not derive any new quantitative detection limits but is intended to provide additional science justification for the use of current and planned observing facilities as well as to inspire astronomers conducting such observations to consider the relevance of their ongoing observations to technosignature science. This synthesis also identifies possible technology gaps with the ability of current and planned missions to search for technosignatures, which suggests the need to consider technosignature science cases in the design of future mission concepts., Comment: Accepted for publication in Acta Astronautica

An important future goal in exoplanetology is to detect and characterize potentially habitable planets. Using nulling interferometry, LIFE will allow us to constrain the radius and effective temperature of (terrestrial) exoplanets, as well as provide unique information about their atmospheric structure and composition. We explore the potential of LIFE in characterizing emission spectra of Earth at various stages of its evolution. We perform Bayesian retrievals on simulated spectra of 8 different scenarios, which correspond to cloud-free and cloudy spectra of four different epochs of the evolution of the Earth. Assuming a distance of 10 pc and a Sun-like host star, we simulate observations obtained with LIFE using its simulator LIFEsim, considering all major astrophysical noise sources. With the nominal spectral resolution (R=50) and signal-to-noise ratio (assumed to be S/N=10 at 11.2 $\mu$m), we can identify the main spectral features of all the analyzed scenarios (most notably CO$_2$, H$_2$O, O$_3$, CH$_4$). This allows us to distinguish between inhabited and lifeless scenarios. Results suggest that particularly O$_3$ and CH$_4$ yield an improved abundance estimate by doubling the S/N from 10 to 20. We conclude that the baseline requirements for R and S/N are sufficient for LIFE to detect O$_3$ and CH$_4$ in the atmosphere of an Earth-like planet with an abundance of O$_2$ of around 2% in volume mixing ratio. This information is relevant in terms of the LIFE mission planning. We also conclude that cloud-free retrievals of cloudy planets can be used to characterize the atmospheric composition of terrestrial habitable planets, but not the thermal structure of the atmosphere. From the inter-model comparison performed, we deduce that differences in the opacity tables (caused by e.g. a different line wing treatment) may be an important source of systematic errors., Comment: 18 pages (main text, incl. 11 figures) + appendix; submitted to A&A; comments are very welcome! Fifth paper of LIFE telescope series. First: arXiv:2101.07500v4, Second: arXiv:2203.00471, Third: arXiv:2112.02054, Sixth: arXiv:2201.04891

We investigate the atmospheric composition of the long period ($P_{\rm orb}=$ 10 days), eccentric exo-Saturn WASP-117b. WASP-117b could be in atmospheric temperature and chemistry similar to WASP-107b. In mass and radius WASP-117b is similar to WASP-39b, which allows a comparative study of these planets. We analyze a near-infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-117b taken with Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 G141, which was reduced with two independent pipelines. High resolution measurements were taken with VLT/ESPRESSO in the optical. We report the robust ($3\sigma$) detection of a water spectral feature. Using a 1D atmosphere model with isothermal temperature, uniform cloud deck and equilibrium chemistry, the Bayesian evidence of a retrieval analysis of the transmission spectrum indicates a preference for a high atmospheric metallicity ${\rm [Fe/H]}=2.58^{+0.26}_{-0.37}$ and clear skies. The data are also consistent with a lower-metallicity composition ${\rm [Fe/H]}<1.75$ and a cloud deck between $10^{-2.2} - 10^{-5.1}$ bar, but with weaker Bayesian preference. We retrieve a low CH$_4$ abundance of $<10^{-4}$ volume fraction within $1 \sigma$ and $<2\cdot 10^{-1}$ volume fraction within $3 \sigma$. We cannot constrain the equilibrium temperature between theoretically imposed limits of 700 and 1000~K. Further observations are needed to confirm quenching of CH$_4$ with $K_{zz}\geq 10^8$~cm$^2$/s. We report indications of Na and K in the VLT/ESPRESSO high resolution spectrum with substantial Bayesian evidence in combination with HST data., Comment: Accepted by A & A, 23 pages, 21 figures, + appendix (now transmission data appended)

We present an optical-to-infrared transmission spectrum of the inflated sub-Saturn KELT-11b measured with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 G141 spectroscopic grism, and the Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer) at 3.6 $\mu$m, in addition to a Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m secondary eclipse. The precise HST transmission spectrum notably reveals a low-amplitude water feature with an unusual shape. Based on free retrieval analyses with varying molecular abundances, we find strong evidence for water absorption. Depending on model assumptions, we also find tentative evidence for other absorbers (HCN, TiO, and AlO). The retrieved water abundance is generally $\lesssim 0.1\times$ solar (0.001--0.7$\times$ solar over a range of model assumptions), several orders of magnitude lower than expected from planet formation models based on the solar system metallicity trend. We also consider chemical equilibrium and self-consistent 1D radiative-convective equilibrium model fits and find they too prefer low metallicities ($[M/H] \lesssim -2$, consistent with the free retrieval results). However, all the retrievals should be interpreted with some caution since they either require additional absorbers that are far out of chemical equilibrium to explain the shape of the spectrum or are simply poor fits to the data. Finally, we find the Spitzer secondary eclipse is indicative of full heat redistribution from KELT-11b's dayside to nightside, assuming a clear dayside. These potentially unusual results for KELT-11b's composition are suggestive of new challenges on the horizon for atmosphere and formation models in the face of increasingly precise measurements of exoplanet spectra., Comment: Accepted to The Astronomical Journal. 31 pages, 20 figures, 7 tables

In this work we show that modern data-driven machine learning techniques can be successfully applied on lunar surface remote sensing data to learn, in an unsupervised way, sufficiently good representations of the data distribution to enable lunar technosignature and anomaly detection. In particular we train an unsupervised distribution learning neural network model to find the Apollo 15 landing module in a testing dataset, with no dataset specific model or hyperparameter tuning. Sufficiently good unsupervised data density estimation has the promise of enabling myriad useful downstream tasks, including locating lunar resources for future space flight and colonization, finding new impact craters or lunar surface reshaping, and algorithmically deciding the importance of unlabeled samples to send back from power- and bandwidth-constrained missions. We show in this work that such unsupervised learning can be successfully done in the lunar remote sensing and space science contexts., Comment: Second Workshop on Machine Learning and the Physical Sciences, NeurIPS 2019. Five pages, three figures

Exoplanet science is one of the most thriving fields of modern astrophysics. A major goal is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small, terrestrial exoplanets in order to search for signatures in their atmospheres that indicate biological activity, assess their ability to provide conditions for life as we know it, and investigate their expected atmospheric diversity. None of the currently adopted projects or missions, from ground or in space, can address these goals. In this White Paper we argue that a large space-based mission designed to detect and investigate thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets in the MIR wavelength range provides unique scientific potential to address these goals and surpasses the capabilities of other approaches. While NASA might be focusing on large missions that aim to detect terrestrial planets in reflected light, ESA has the opportunity to take leadership and spearhead the development of a large MIR exoplanet mission within the scope of the "Voyage 2050" long-term plan establishing Europe at the forefront of exoplanet science for decades to come. Given the ambitious science goals of such a mission, additional international partners might be interested in participating and contributing to a roadmap that, in the long run, leads to a successful implementation. A new, dedicated development program funded by ESA to help reduce development and implementation cost and further push some of the required key technologies would be a first important step in this direction. Ultimately, a large MIR exoplanet imaging mission will be needed to help answer one of mankind's most fundamental questions: "How unique is our Earth?", Comment: Accepted for publication in special issue of Experimental Astronomy together with other White Papers submitted to ESA in 2019 in the context of the "Voyage 2050" long-term planning of the Science Programme

Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, \texttt{plan-net}, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply \texttt{plan-net} to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

This paper outlines some of the possible advancements for the technosignatures searches using the new methods currently rapidly developing in computer science, such as machine learning and deep learning. It also showcases a couple of case studies of large research programs where such methods have been already successfully implemented with notable results. We consider that the availability of data from all sky, all the time observations paired with the latest developments in computational capabilities and algorithms currently used in artificial intelligence, including automation, will spur an unprecedented development of the technosignatures search efforts., Comment: Science white paper submitted in response to the the U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's call for community input to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey; 7 pages, 1 figure

Transmission spectra probe the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, but these observations are also subject to signals introduced by magnetic active regions on host stars. Here we outline scientific opportunities in the next decade for providing useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest ($R<4\,R_{\odot}$) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from $\textit{JWST}$. We make five recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee: (1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with $\textit{JWST}$., Comment: Science white paper submitted in response to the the U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's call for community input to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey; 9 pages, 3 figures

Accurately and rapidly classifying exoplanet candidates from transit surveys is a goal of growing importance as the data rates from space-based survey missions increases. This is especially true for NASA's TESS mission which generates thousands of new candidates each month. Here we created the first deep learning model capable of classifying TESS planet candidates. We adapted the neural network model of Ansdell et al. (2018) to TESS data. We then trained and tested this updated model on 4 sectors of high-fidelity, pixel-level simulations data created using the Lilith simulator and processed using the full TESS SPOC pipeline. We find our model performs very well on our simulated data, with 97% average precision and 92% accuracy on planets in the 2-class model. This accuracy is also boosted by another ~4% if planets found at the wrong periods are included. We also performed 3- and 4-class classification of planets, blended & target eclipsing binaries, and non-astrophysical false positives, which have slightly lower average precision and planet accuracies, but are useful for follow-up decisions. When applied to real TESS data, 61% of TCEs coincident with currently published TOIs are recovered as planets, 4% more are suggested to be EBs, and we propose a further 200 TCEs as planet candidates., Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, Submitted to A&A

Despite the existence of co-orbital bodies in the solar system, and the prediction of the formation of co-orbital planets by planetary system formation models, no co-orbital exoplanets (also called trojans) have been detected thus far. Here we study the signature of co-orbital exoplanets in transit surveys when two planet candidates in the system orbit the star with similar periods. Such pair of candidates could be discarded as false positives because they are not Hill-stable. However, horseshoe or long libration period tadpole co-orbital configurations can explain such period similarity. This degeneracy can be solved by considering the Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) of each planet. We then focus on the three planet candidates system TOI-178: the two outer candidates of that system have similar orbital period and had an angular separation near $\pi/3$ during the TESS observation of sector 2. Based on the announced orbits, the long-term stability of the system requires the two close-period planets to be co-orbitals. Our independent detrending and transit search recover and slightly favour the three orbits close to a 3:2:2 resonant chain found by the TESS pipeline, although we cannot exclude an alias that would put the system close to a 4:3:2 configuration. We then analyse in more detail the co-orbital scenario. We show that despite the influence of an inner planet just outside the 2:3 mean-motion resonance, this potential co-orbital system can be stable on the Giga-year time-scale for a variety of planetary masses, either on a trojan or a horseshoe orbit. We predict that large TTVs should arise in such configuration with a period of several hundred days. We then show how the mass of each planet can be retrieved from these TTVs.

Over the past decade, the study of extrasolar planets has evolved rapidly from plain detection and identification to comprehensive categorization and characterization of exoplanet systems and their atmospheres. Atmospheric retrieval, the inverse modeling technique used to determine an exoplanetary atmosphere's temperature structure and composition from an observed spectrum, is both time-consuming and compute-intensive, requiring complex algorithms that compare thousands to millions of atmospheric models to the observational data to find the most probable values and associated uncertainties for each model parameter. For rocky, terrestrial planets, the retrieved atmospheric composition can give insight into the surface fluxes of gaseous species necessary to maintain the stability of that atmosphere, which may in turn provide insight into the geological and/or biological processes active on the planet. These atmospheres contain many molecules, some of them biosignatures, spectral fingerprints indicative of biological activity, which will become observable with the next generation of telescopes. Runtimes of traditional retrieval models scale with the number of model parameters, so as more molecular species are considered, runtimes can become prohibitively long. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) and computer vision offer new ways to reduce the time to perform a retrieval by orders of magnitude, given a sufficient data set to train with. Here we present an ML-based retrieval framework called Intelligent exoplaNet Atmospheric RetrievAl (INARA) that consists of a Bayesian deep learning model for retrieval and a data set of 3,000,000 synthetic rocky exoplanetary spectra generated using the NASA Planetary Spectrum Generator. Our work represents the first ML retrieval model for rocky, terrestrial exoplanets and the first synthetic data set of terrestrial spectra generated at this scale., Comment: Third workshop on Bayesian Deep Learning (NeurIPS 2018), Montreal, Canada

Space-based missions such as Kepler, and soon TESS, provide large datasets that must be analyzed efficiently and systematically. Recent work by Shallue & Vanderburg (2018) successfully used state-of-the-art deep learning models to automatically classify Kepler transit signals as either exoplanets or false positives; our application of their model yielded 95.8% accuracy and 95.5% average precision. Here we expand upon that work by including additional scientific domain knowledge into the network architecture and input representations to significantly increase overall model performance to 97.5% accuracy and 98.0% average precision. Notably, we achieve 15-20% gains in recall for the lowest signal-to-noise transits that can correspond to rocky planets in the habitable zone. We input into the network centroid time-series information derived from Kepler data plus key stellar parameters taken from the Kepler DR25 catalogue. We also implement data augmentation techniques to alleviate model over-fitting. These improvements allow us to drastically reduce the size of the model, while still maintaining improved performance; smaller models are better for generalization, for example from Kepler to TESS data. This work illustrates the importance of including expert domain knowledge in even state-of-the-art deep learning models when applying them to scientific research problems that seek to identify weak signals in noisy data. This classification tool will be especially useful for upcoming space-based photometry missions focused on finding small planets, such as TESS and PLATO., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, accepted to ApJ Letters

Transmission spectroscopy during planetary transits is expected to be a major source of information on the atmospheres of small (approximately Earth-sized) exoplanets in the next two decades. This technique, however, is intrinsically affected by stellar spectral contamination caused by the fact that stellar photo- and chromospheres are not perfectly homogeneous. Such stellar contamination will often reach or exceed the signal introduced by the planetary spectral features. Finding effective methods to correct stellar contamination -- or at least to quantify its possible range -- for the most important exoplanets is a necessary step for our understanding of exoplanet atmospheres. This will require significantly deepening our understanding of stellar heterogeneity, which is currently limited by the available data., Comment: White paper submitted to the NAS Committee on Exoplanet Science Strategy

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) presents the opportunity to transform our understanding of planets and the origins of life by revealing the atmospheric compositions, structures, and dynamics of transiting exoplanets in unprecedented detail. However, the high-precision, time-series observations required for such investigations have unique technical challenges, and prior experience with other facilities indicates that there will be a steep learning curve when JWST becomes operational. In this paper we describe the science objectives and detailed plans of the Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science (ERS) Program, which is a recently approved program for JWST observations early in Cycle 1. The goal of this project, for which the obtained data will have no exclusive access period, is to accelerate the acquisition and diffusion of technical expertise for transiting exoplanet observations with JWST, while also providing a compelling set of representative datasets that will enable immediate scientific breakthroughs. The Transiting Exoplanet Community ERS Program will exercise the time-series modes of all four JWST instruments that have been identified as the consensus highest priorities, observe the full suite of transiting planet characterization geometries (transits, eclipses, and phase curves), and target planets with host stars that span an illustrative range of brightnesses. The observations in this program were defined through an inclusive and transparent process that had participation from JWST instrument experts and international leaders in transiting exoplanet studies. Community engagement in the project will be centered on a two-phase Data Challenge that culminates with the delivery of planetary spectra, time-series instrument performance reports, and open-source data analysis toolkits in time to inform the agenda for Cycle 2 of the JWST mission., Comment: PASP in press

For the first time in human history, we will soon be able to apply the scientific method to the question "Are We Alone?" The rapid advance of exoplanet discovery, planetary systems science, and telescope technology will soon allow scientists to search for life beyond our Solar System through direct observation of extrasolar planets. This endeavor will occur alongside searches for habitable environments and signs of life within our Solar System. While the searches are thematically related and will inform each other, they will require separate observational techniques. The search for life on exoplanets holds potential through the great diversity of worlds to be explored beyond our Solar System. However, there are also unique challenges related to the relatively limited data this search will obtain on any individual world. This white paper reviews the scientific community's ability to use data from future telescopes to search for life on exoplanets. This material summarizes products from the Exoplanet Biosignatures Workshop Without Walls (EBWWW). The EBWWW was constituted by a series of online and in person activities, with participation from the international exoplanet and astrobiology communities, to assess state of the science and future research needs for the remote detection of life on planets outside our Solar System., Comment: This is a white paper that was submitted to the National Academies of Sciences Study: Astrobiology Science Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe

The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits plan\'etaires) exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects., Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables. Presented at the 37th International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering (MaxEnt 2017) in Jarinu/SP Brasil

We present near infrared high-precision photometry for eight transiting hot Jupiters observed during their predicted secondary eclipses. Our observations were carried out using the staring mode of the WIRCam instrument on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT). We present the observing strategies and data reduction methods which delivered time series photometry with statistical photometric precisionas low as 0.11%. We performed a Bayesian analysis to model the eclipse parameters and systematics simultaneously. The measured planet-to-star flux ratios allowed us to constrain the thermal emission from the day side of these hot Jupiters, as we derived the planet brightness temperatures. Our results combined with previously observed eclipses reveal an excess in the brightness temperatures relative to the blackbody prediction for the equilibrium temperatures of the planets for a wide range of heat redistribution factors. We find a trend that this excess appears to be larger for planets with lower equilibrium temperatures. This may imply some additional sources of radiation, such as reflected light from the host star and/or thermal emission from residual internal heat from the formation of the planet., Comment: 17 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

When the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA) was conceived and its first science cases defined, exoplanets had not been detected. Later studies, however, showed that optical and near-infrared photometric and spectrophotometric follow-up observations during planetary transits and eclipses are feasible with SOFIA's instrumentation, in particular with the HIPO-FLITECAM and FPI+ optical and near infrared (NIR) instruments. Additionally, the airborne-based platform SOFIA has a number of unique advantages when compared to other ground- and space-based observatories in this field of research. Here we will outline these theoretical advantages, present some sample science cases and the results of two observations from SOFIA's first five observation cycles -- an observation of the Hot Jupiter HD 189733b with HIPO and an observation of the Super-Earth GJ 1214b with FLIPO and FPI+. Based on these early products available to this science case, we evaluate SOFIA's potential and future perspectives in the field of optical and infrared exoplanet spectrophotometry in the stratosphere., Comment: Invited review chapter, accepted for publication in "Handbook of Exoplanets" edited by H.J. Deeg and J.A. Belmonte, Springer Reference Works

We combine and calibrate publicly available data for Boyajian's star including photometry from ASAS (SN, V, I), Kepler, Gaia, SuperWASP, and citizen scientist observations (AAVSO, HAO and Burke-Gaffney). Precise (mmag) photometry covers the years 2006-2017. We show that the year-long flux variations with an amplitude of ~4% can not be explained with cyclical symmetric or asymmetric models with periods shorter than ten years. If the dips are transits, their period must exceed ten years, or their structure must evolve significantly during each 4-year long cycle., Comment: ApJL accepted

Secondary eclipses and phase curves reveal information about the reflectivity and heat distribution in exoplanet atmospheres. The phase curve is composed of a combination of reflected, and thermally emitted light from the planet, and for circular orbits the phase curve peaks during the secondary eclipse or at an orbital phase of 0.5. Physical mechanisms have been discovered which shift the phase curve maximum of tidally locked close in planets to the right, or left, of the secondary eclipse. These mechanisms include cloud formations, and atmospheric superrotation, both of which serve to shift the thermally bright hot-spot, or highly reflective bright spot, of the atmosphere away from the sub-stellar point. Here we present a methodology for optimizing observing strategies for both secondary eclipses and phase curves with the goal of maximizing the information gained about the planetary atmosphere while minimizing the (assumed) continuous observation time. We show that we can increase the duty cycle of observations aimed at the measurements of phase curve characteristics (Amplitude, Phase offset) by up to $50\%$ for future platforms such as CHEOPS and JWST. We apply this methodology to the test cases of the Spitzer phase curve of 55-Cancri-e, which displays an eastward shift in its phase curve maximum, as well as model-generated observations of an ultra-short period planet observed with CHEOPS., Comment: Accepted at The Astronomical Journal

Exoplanet hunting efforts have revealed the prevalence of exotic worlds with diverse properties, including Earth-sized bodies, which has fueled our endeavor to search for life beyond the Solar System. Accumulating experiences in astrophysical, chemical, and climatological characterization of uninhabitable planets are paving the way to characterization of potentially habitable planets. In this paper, we review our possibilities and limitations in characterizing temperate terrestrial planets with future observational capabilities through 2030s and beyond, as a basis of a broad range of discussions on how to advance "astrobiology" with exoplanets. We discuss the observability of not only the proposed biosignature candidates themselves, but also of more general planetary properties that provide circumstantial evidence, since the evaluation of any biosignature candidate relies on their context. Characterization of temperate Earth-size planets in the coming years will focus on those around nearby late-type stars. JWST and later 30 meter-class ground-based telescopes will empower their chemical investigations. Spectroscopic studies of potentially habitable planets around solar-type stars will likely require a designated spacecraft mission for direct imaging, leveraging technologies that are already being developed and tested as part of the WFIRST mission. Successful initial characterization of a few nearby targets will be an important touchstone toward a more detailed scrutiny and a larger survey that are envisioned beyond 2030. The broad outlook this paper presents may help develop new observational techniques to detect relevant features as well as frameworks to diagnose planets based on the observables., Comment: part of a series of 5 review manuscripts of the NExSS Exoplanet Biosgnatures Workshop

The F3 main sequence star KIC 8462852 (Boyajian's Star) showed deep (up to 20%) day-long brightness dips of unknown cause during the 4 years of the Kepler mission. A 0.164 mag (16%) dimming between 1890 and 1990 was claimed, based on the analysis of photographic plates from the Harvard Observatory. We have gathered an independent set of historic plates from Sonneberg Observatory, Germany, covering the years 1934-1995. With 861 magnitudes in B, and 397 magnitudes in V, we find the star to be of constant brightness within 0.03 mag per century (3%). Consistent outcomes are found using by-eye estimates of the best 119 plates. Results are supported by data from Sternberg Observatory, Moscow, which show the star as constant between 1895 and 1995. The previously claimed century-long dimming is inconsistent with our results at the 5-sigma level, however the recently reported modest dimming of 3% in the Kepler data is not inconsistent with our data. We find no periodicities or shorter trends within our limits of 5% per 5-year bin, but note a possible dimming event on 24 Oct 1978., Comment: ApJ accepted. Added by-eye estimates and data from Sternberg Observatory, Moscow

Distance estimates from Gaia parallax and expected luminosities are compared for KIC 8462852. Gaia DR1 yields a parallax of $2.55\pm0.31$mas, that is a distance of $391.4\substack{+53.6 \\ -42.0}$pc, or $391.4\substack{+122.1 \\ -75.2}$pc including systematic uncertainty. The distance estimate based on the absolute magnitude of an F3V star and measured reddening is $\sim454\pm35$pc. Both estimates agree within $<1\sigma$, which only excludes some of the most extreme theorized scenarios for KIC 8462852. Future Gaia data releases will determine the distance to within 1% and thus allow for the determination a precise absolute luminosity., Comment: Comments welcome

We announce the discovery of KELT-16b, a highly irradiated, ultra-short period hot Jupiter transiting the relatively bright ($V = 11.7$) star TYC 2688-1839-1. A global analysis of the system shows KELT-16 to be an F7V star with $T_\textrm{eff} = 6236\pm54$ K, $\log{g_\star} = 4.253_{-0.036}^{+0.031}$, [Fe/H] = -0.002$_{-0.085}^{+0.086}$, $M_\star = 1.211_{-0.046}^{+0.043} M_\odot$, and $R_\star = 1.360_{-0.053}^{+0.064} R_\odot$. The planet is a relatively high mass inflated gas giant with $M_\textrm{P} = 2.75_{-0.15}^{+0.16} M_\textrm{J}$, $R_\textrm{P} = 1.415_{-0.067}^{+0.084} R_\textrm{J}$, density $\rho_\textrm{P} = 1.20\pm0.18$ g cm$^{-3}$, surface gravity $\log{g_\textrm{P}} = 3.530_{-0.049}^{+0.042}$, and $T_\textrm{eq} = 2453_{-47}^{+55}$ K. The best-fitting linear ephemeris is $T_\textrm{C} = 2457247.24791\pm0.00019$ BJD$_{tdb}$ and $P = 0.9689951 \pm 0.0000024$ d. KELT-16b joins WASP-18b, -19b, -43b, -103b, and HATS-18b as the only giant transiting planets with $P < 1$ day. Its ultra-short period and high irradiation make it a benchmark target for atmospheric studies by HST, Spitzer, and eventually JWST. For example, as a hotter, higher mass analog of WASP-43b, KELT-16b may feature an atmospheric temperature-pressure inversion and day-to-night temperature swing extreme enough for TiO to rain out at the terminator. KELT-16b could also join WASP-43b in extending tests of the observed mass-metallicity relation of the Solar System gas giants to higher masses. KELT-16b currently orbits at a mere $\sim$ 1.7 Roche radii from its host star, and could be tidally disrupted in as little as a few $\times 10^{5}$ years (for a stellar tidal quality factor of $Q_*' = 10^5$). Finally, the likely existence of a widely separated bound stellar companion in the KELT-16 system makes it possible that Kozai-Lidov oscillations played a role in driving KELT-16b inward to its current precarious orbit., Comment: 16 pages, 18 Figures, 7 Tables, Accepted for publication in AJ

The century-long photometric record of the DASCH project provides a unique window into the variability of stars normally considered to be photometrically inactive. In this paper, we look for long-term trends in the brightness of F stars, with particular attention to KIC 8462852,an F3 main sequence star that has been identified as significant short-term variability according to Kepler observations. Although a simple search for variability suggests long-term dimming of a number of F stars, we find that such trends are artifacts of the 'Menzel Gap' in the DASCH data. That includes the behavior of KIC 8462852, which we believe is consistent with constant flux over the full duration of observations. We do, however, present a selection of F stars that do have significant photometric trends, even after systematics are taken into account., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, submitted to ApJ

We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moons, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures if the drift of the moons' pericenters is sufficiently slow. We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio. We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10% moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for exomoon discoveries around bright stars., Comment: published in A&A, text updated to journal version, note added in proofs, 10 Figs. in main text (5 col, 5 b/w), 4 Figs. in appendix (b/w), TTV-TDV simulator available at https://github.com/hippke/TTV-TDV-exomoons

The James Webb Space Telescope will revolutionize transiting exoplanet atmospheric science due to its capability for continuous, long-duration observations and its larger collecting area, spectral coverage, and spectral resolution compared to existing space-based facilities. However, it is unclear precisely how well JWST will perform and which of its myriad instruments and observing modes will be best suited for transiting exoplanet studies. In this article, we describe a prefatory JWST Early Release Science (ERS) program that focuses on testing specific observing modes to quickly give the community the data and experience it needs to plan more efficient and successful future transiting exoplanet characterization programs. We propose a multi-pronged approach wherein one aspect of the program focuses on observing transits of a single target with all of the recommended observing modes to identify and understand potential systematics, compare transmission spectra at overlapping and neighboring wavelength regions, confirm throughputs, and determine overall performances. In our search for transiting exoplanets that are well suited to achieving these goals, we identify 12 objects (dubbed "community targets") that meet our defined criteria. Currently, the most favorable target is WASP-62b because of its large predicted signal size, relatively bright host star, and location in JWST's continuous viewing zone. Since most of the community targets do not have well-characterized atmospheres, we recommend initiating preparatory observing programs to determine the presence of obscuring clouds/hazes within their atmospheres. Measurable spectroscopic features are needed to establish the optimal resolution and wavelength regions for exoplanet characterization. Other initiatives from our proposed ERS program include testing the instrument brightness limits and performing phase-curve observations.(Abridged), Comment: This is a white paper that originated from an open discussion at the Enabling Transiting Exoplanet Science with JWST workshop held November 16 - 18, 2015 at STScI (http://www.stsci.edu/jwst/science/exoplanets). Accepted for publication in PASP

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the time scale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median RMS scatter of lightcurves of order 0.15mag over the range B~9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of ~<=0.2mag per century (1889-1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16mag per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant., Comment: ApJ accepted

Presented here is an independent re-analysis of the Kepler light curve of Kepler-91 (KIC 8219268). Using the EXONEST software package, which provides both Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian model testing, we were able to re-confirm the planetary nature of Kepler-91b. In addition to the primary and secondary eclipses of Kepler-91b, a third dimming event appears to occur approximately $60^o$ away (in phase) from the secondary eclipse, leading to the hypothesis that a Trojan planet may be located at the L4 or L5 Lagrange points. Here, we present a comprehensive investigation of four possibilities to explain the observed dimming event using all available photometric data from the Kepler Space Telescope, recently obtained radial velocity measurements, and N-body simulations. We find that the photometric model describing Kepler-91b and a Trojan planet is highly favored over the model involving Kepler-91b alone. However, it predicts an unphysically high temperature for the Trojan companion, leading to the conclusion that the extra dimming event is likely a false-postive., Comment: Accepted at The Astrophysical Journal

Planets emit thermal radiation and reflect incident light that they recieve from their host stars. As a planet orbits it's host star the photometric variations associated with these two effects produce very similar phase curves. If observed through only a single bandpass this leads to a degeneracy between certain planetary parameters that hinder the precise characterization of such planets. However, observing the same planet through two different bandpasses gives one much more information about the planet. Here, we develop a Bayesian methodology for combining photometry from both \emph{Kepler} and the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). In addition, we demonstrate via simulations that one can disentangle the reflected and thermally emitted light from the atmosphere of a hot-Jupiter as well as more precisely constrain both the geometric albedo and dayside temperature of the planet. This methodology can further be employed using various combinations of photometry from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Characterizing ExOplanet Satellite (CHEOPS), or the PLATO mission., Comment: Submitted to PASP

Trojans are small bodies in planetary Lagrangian points. In our solar system, Jupiter has the largest number of such companions. Their existence is assumed for exoplanetary systems as well, but none has been found so far. We present an analysis by super-stacking $\sim4\times10^4$ Kepler planets with a total of $\sim9\times10^5$ transits, searching for an average trojan transit dip. Our result gives an upper limit to the average Trojan transiting area (per planet) corresponding to one body of radius $<460$km at $2\sigma$ confidence. We find a significant Trojan-like signal in a sub-sample for planets with more (or larger) Trojans for periods $>$60 days. Our tentative results can and should be checked with improved data from future missions like PLATO2.0, and can guide planetary formation theories., Comment: ApJ accepted

Here we report on the first successful exoplanet transit observation with the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA). We observed a single transit of the hot Jupiter HD 189733 b, obtaining two simultaneous primary transit lightcurves in the B and z' bands as a demonstration of SOFIA's capability to perform absolute transit photometry. We present a detailed description of our data reduction, in particular the correlation of photometric systematics with various in-flight parameters unique to the airborne observing environment. The derived transit depths at B and z' wavelengths confirm a previously reported slope in the optical transmission spectrum of HD 189733 b. Our results give new insights to the current discussion about the source of this Rayleigh scattering in the upper atmosphere and the question of fixed limb darkening coefficients in fitting routines., Comment: 40 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in JATIS

Time-series transit photometry from the Kepler space telescope has allowed for the discovery of thousands of exoplanets. We explore the potential of yet improved future missions such as PLATO 2.0 in detecting solar system analogues. We use real-world solar data and end-to-end simulations to explore the stellar and instrumental noise properties. By injecting and retrieving planets, rings and moons of our own solar system, we show that the discovery of Venus- and Earth-analogues transiting G-dwarfs like our Sun is feasible at high S/N after collecting 6yrs of data, but Mars and Mercury will be difficult to detect due to stellar noise. In the best cases, Saturn's rings and Jupiter's moons will be detectable even in single transit observations. Through the high number (>1 bn) of observed stars by PLATO 2.0, it will become possible to detect thousands of single-transit events by cold gas giants, analogue to our Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Our own solar system aside, we also show, through signal injection and retrieval, that PLATO 2.0-class photometry will allow for the secure detection of exomoons transiting quiet M-dwarfs. This is the first study analyzing in-depth the potential of future missions, and the ultimate limits of photometry, using realistic case examples., Comment: ApJ accepted