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Mineral dust plays an important role in Earth system models and is linked to many components, including atmospheric wind speed, precipitation and radiation, surface vegetation cover and soil properties and oceanic biogeochemical systems. In this paper, the dust scheme in the first configuration of the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1 is described, and simulations of dust and its radiative effects are presented and compared with results from the parallel coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) HadGEM3-GC3.1. Not only changes in the driving model fields but also changes in the dust size distribution are shown to lead to considerable differences to the present-day dust simulations and to projected future changes. UKESM1 simulations produce a present-day, top-of-the-atmosphere (ToA) dust direct radiative effect (DRE – defined as the change in downward net flux directly due to the presence of dust) of 0.086 W m−2 from a dust load of 19.5 Tg. Under climate change pathways these values decrease considerably. In the 2081–2100 mean of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5–8.45 ToA DRE reaches 0.048 W m−2 from a load of 15.1 Tg. In contrast, in HadGEM3-GC3.1 the present-day values of −0.296 W m−2 and 15.0 Tg are almost unchanged at −0.289 W m−2 and 14.5 Tg in the 2081–2100 mean. The primary mechanism causing the differences in future dust projections is shown to be the vegetation response, which dominates over the direct effects of warming in our models. Though there are considerable uncertainties associated with any such estimates, the results presented demonstrate both the importance of the size distribution for dust modelling and also the necessity of including Earth system processes such as interactive vegetation in dust simulations for climate change studies.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) widely modulates the global carbon cycle. More specifically, it alters the net uptake of carbon in the tropical ocean. Over the tropical Pacific, less carbon is released during El Niño, while the opposite is the case for La Niña. Here, the skill of Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the observed tropical Pacific CO2 flux variability in response to ENSO is assessed. The temporal amplitude and spatial extent of CO2 flux anomalies vary considerably among models, while the surface temperature signals of El Niño and La Niña phases are generally well represented. Under historical conditions followed by the high-warming Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, about half the ESMs simulate a reversal in ENSO–CO2 flux relationship. This gradual shift, which occurs as early as the first half of the 21st century, is associated with a high CO2-induced increase in the Revelle factor that leads to stronger sensitivity of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) to changes in surface temperature between ENSO phases. At the same time, uptake of anthropogenic CO2 substantially increases upper-ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations (reducing its vertical gradient in the thermocline) and weakens the ENSO-modulated surface DIC variability. The response of the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship to future climate change is sensitive to the contemporary mean state of the carbonate ion concentration in the tropics. We present an emergent constraint between the simulated contemporary carbonate concentration with the projected cumulated CO2 fluxes. Models that simulate shifts in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship simulate positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations.

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) has become a priority for many states wanting to develop national blue economy plans and meet international obligations in response to the increasing cumulative impacts of human activities and climate change. In areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), MSP is proposed as part of a package of solutions for multi-sectoral management at the ocean basin scale. To facilitate planning, maps showing the spatial distribution of marine biological diversity are required. In areas lacking data, like the South Atlantic, environmental proxies can be used to predict these distributions. We undertook broad-scale benthic habitat classification of the South Atlantic, employing two top-down approaches spanning from national waters to ABNJ. The first was non-hierarchical and clustered groups of environmental variables prior to combination; the second was hierarchical and clustered Principal Components of environmental variables. Areas of agreement between the two approaches were identified and results compared with existing national and global classifications and published biodiversity patterns. We highlight several habitat classes we can be cautiously confident represent variation in biological diversity, such as topographic features, frontal systems and some abyssal basins. We also identify critical gaps in our knowledge of regional biogeography and advocate for collaborative effort to compile benthic species records and promote further exploration of the region to address these gaps. These insights into the distribution of habitats have the potential to support sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction, enable transboundary and ocean basin scale management, and empower nations to make progress towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

The anthropogenic carbon distribution between the atmosphere, land surface and ocean varies significantly with the choice of scenario for identical changes in mean global surface temperature. Moving to a lower CO2 emissions scenario means that warming levels occur later, and with significantly less carbon in the three main carbon reservoirs. After 2 °C of warming, the multi-model mean ocean allocation can be up to 3 % different between scenarios, or 36 Pg in total with an even larger difference in some single model means. For the UKESM1 model, the difference between the minimum and maximum atmospheric fraction at the 2 °C Global Warming Level (GWL) is 3.6 %. This is equivalent to 50 Pg of additional carbon in the atmosphere, or the equivalent of five years of our current global total emissions. In the lower CO2 concentration scenarios, SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, the ocean fraction grows over time while the the land surface fraction remains constant. In the higher CO2 concentration scenarios, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, the ocean fraction remains constant over time while the the land surface fraction decreases over time. Higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) models reach the GWLs sooner, and with lower atmospheric CO2 than lower sensitivity models. However, the choice of scenario has a much larger impact on the percentage carbon allocation at a given warming level than the individual model's ECS.

Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon in surface waters and provides buffering capacity towards the associated acidification. However, unlike dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity is not directly impacted by anthropogenic carbon emissions. Within the context of projections of future ocean carbon uptake and potential ecosystem impacts, especially through Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the representation of alkalinity and the main driver of its distribution in the ocean interior, the calcium carbonate cycle, have often been overlooked. Here we track the changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6 with respect to the Earth system model (ESM) representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump which depletes the surface ocean in alkalinity through biological production of calcium carbonate and releases it at depth through export and dissolution. We report an improvement in the representation of alkalinity in CMIP6 ESMs relative to those in CMIP5, with CMIP6 ESMs simulating lower surface alkalinity concentrations, an increased meridional surface gradient and an enhanced global vertical gradient. This improvement can be explained in part by an increase in calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production for some ESMs, which redistributes alkalinity at the surface and strengthens its vertical gradient in the water column. We were able to constrain a particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) export estimate of 44–55 Tmol yr−1 at 100 m for the ESMs to match the observed vertical gradient of alkalinity. Reviewing the representation of the CaCO3 cycle across CMIP5/6, we find a substantial range of parameterizations. While all biogeochemical models currently represent pelagic calcification, they do so implicitly, and they do not represent benthic calcification. In addition, most models simulate marine calcite but not aragonite. In CMIP6, certain model groups have increased the complexity of simulated CaCO3 production, sinking, dissolution and sedimentation. However, this is insufficient to explain the overall improvement in the alkalinity representation, which is therefore likely a result of marine biogeochemistry model tuning or ad hoc parameterizations. Although modellers aim to balance the global alkalinity budget in ESMs in order to limit drift in ocean carbon uptake under pre-industrial conditions, varying assumptions related to the closure of the budget and/or the alkalinity initialization procedure have the potential to influence projections of future carbon uptake. For instance, in many models, carbonate production, dissolution and burial are independent of the seawater saturation state, and when considered, the range of sensitivities is substantial. As such, the future impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate pump, and in turn ocean carbon uptake, is potentially underestimated in current ESMs and is insufficiently constrained.

Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon in surface waters and provides buffering capacity towards associated acidification. However, unlike dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity is not directly impacted by anthropogenic carbon emissions. Within the context of projections of future ocean carbon uptake and potential ecosystem impacts, especially through Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), the representation of alkalinity and the main driver of its distribution in the ocean interior, the calcium carbonate cycle, have often been overlooked. Here we track the changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6 with respect to the Earth system model (ESM) representation of alkalinity and the carbonate pump which depletes the surface ocean in alkalinity through biological production of calcium carbonate, and releases it at depth through export and dissolution. We report a significant improvement in the representation of alkalinity in CMIP6 ESMs relative to those in CMIP5. This improvement can be explained in part by an increase in calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production for some ESMs, which redistributes alkalinity at the surface and strengthens its vertical gradient in the water column. We were able to constrain a PIC export estimate of 51–70 Tmol yr-1 at 100 m for the ESMs to match the observed vertical gradient of alkalinity. Biases in the vertical profile of DIC have also significantly decreased, especially with the enhancement of the carbonate pump, but the representation of the saturation horizons has slightly worsened in contrast. Reviewing the representation of the CaCO3 cycle across CMIP5/6, we find a substantial range of parameterizations. While all biogeochemical models currently represent pelagic calcification, they do so implicitly, and they do not represent benthic calcification. In addition, most models simulate marine calcite but not aragonite. In CMIP6 certain model groups have increased the complexity of simulated CaCO3 production, sinking, dissolution and sedimentation. However, this is insufficient to explain the overall improvement in the alkalinity representation, which is therefore likely a result of improved marine biogeochemistry model tuning or ad hoc parameterizations. We find differences in the way ocean alkalinity is initialized that lead to offsets of up to 1 % in the global alkalinity inventory of certain models. These initialization biases should be addressed in future CMIPs by adopting accurate unit conversions. Although modelers aim to balance the global alkalinity budget in ESMs in order to limit drift in ocean carbon uptake under preindustrial conditions, varying assumptions in the closure of the budget have the potential to influence projections of future carbon uptake. For instance, in many models, carbonate production, dissolution and burial are independent of the seawater saturation state, and when considered, the range of sensitivities is substantial. As such, the future impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate pump, and in turn ocean carbon uptake, is potentially underestimated in current ESMs and insufficiently constrained.

In response to an increasing demand for bespoke or tailored regional ocean modelling configurations, we outline fundamental principles and practices that can expedite the process to generate new configurations. The paper develops the principle of reproducibility and advocates adherence by presenting benefits to the community and user. The elements of this principle are reproducible workflows and standardised assessment, with additional effort over existing working practices being balanced against the added value generated. The paper then decomposes the complex build process, for a new regional ocean configuration, into stages and presents guidance, advice and insight for each component. This advice is compiled from across the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) user community and sets out principles and practises that encompass regional ocean modelling with any model. With detailed and region-specific worked examples in Sects. 3 and 4, the linked companion repositories and DOIs all target NEMOv4. The aim of this review and perspective paper is to broaden the user community skill base and to accelerate development of new configurations in order to increase the time available for exploiting the configurations.

The ocean absorbs approximately a quarter of the carbon dioxide currently released to the atmosphere by human activities (Canth). A disproportionately large fraction accumulates in the North Atlantic due to the combined effects of transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and air–sea exchange. However, discrepancies exist between modelled and observed estimates of the air–sea exchange due to unresolved ocean transport variability. Here we quantify the strength and variability of Canth transports across 26.5° N in the North Atlantic between 2004 and 2012 using circulation measurements from the RAPID mooring array and hydrographic observations. Over this period, decreasing circulation strength tended to decrease northward Canth transport, while increasing Canth concentrations (preferentially in the upper limb of the overturning circulation) tended to increase northward Canth transport. These two processes compensated each other over the 8.5-year period. While ocean transport and air–sea Canth fluxes are approximately equal in magnitude, the increasing accumulation rate of Canth in the North Atlantic combined with a stable ocean transport supply means we infer a growing contribution from air–sea Canth fluxes over the period. North Atlantic Canth accumulation is thus sensitive to AMOC strength, but growing atmospheric Canth uptake continues to significantly impact Canth transports. Slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from 2004 to 2012 led to a decrease in its relative contribution to North Atlantic carbon accumulation, while the supply from air–sea fluxes increased, according to an analysis of ocean mooring circulation observations.

The North Atlantic Ocean is a key region for carbon sequestration by the biological carbon pump (BCP). The quantity of organic carbon exported from the surface, the region and depth at which it is remineralized, and the subsequent timescale of ventilation (return of the remineralized carbon back into contact with the atmosphere), control the magnitude of BCP sequestration. Carbon stored in the ocean for >100 years is assumed to be sequestered for climate-relevant timescales. We apply Lagrangian tracking to an ocean circulation and marine biogeochemistry model to determine the fate of North Atlantic organic carbon export. Organic carbon assumed to undergo remineralization at each of three vertical horizons (500, 1,000, and 2,000 m) is tracked to determine how much remains out of contact with the atmosphere for 100 years. The fraction that remains below the mixed layer for 100 years is defined as the sequestration efficiency (SEff) of remineralized exported carbon. For exported carbon remineralized at the 500, 1,000 and 2,000 m horizons, the SEff is 28%, 66% and 94%, respectively. Calculating the amount of carbon sequestered using depths ≤1,000 m, and not accounting for downstream ventilation, overestimates 100-year carbon sequestration by at least 39%. This work has implications for the accuracy of future carbon sequestration estimates, which may be overstated, and for carbon management strategies (e.g., oceanic carbon dioxide removal and Blue Carbon schemes) that require long-term sequestration to be successful.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) widely modulates the global carbon cycle, in particular, by altering the net uptake of carbon in the tropical ocean. Indeed, over the tropics less carbon is released by oceans during El Niño while it is the opposite for La Niña. Here, the skill of Earth System Models (ESM) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the observed tropical Pacific CO2 flux variability in response to ENSO is assessed. The temporal amplitude and spatial extent of CO2 flux anomalies vary considerably among models, while the surface temperature signals of El Niño and La Niña phases are generally well represented. Under historical conditions followed by the high warming Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, about half the ESMs simulate a reversal in ENSO-CO2 flux relationship. This gradual shift, which occurs as early as the first half of the 21st century, is associated with a high CO2-induced increase in Revelle factor that leads to stronger sensitivity of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) to changes in surface temperature between ENSO phases. At the same time, uptake of anthropogenic CO2 substantially increases upper ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, reducing its vertical gradient in the thermocline, and weakening the ENSO-modulated surface DIC variability. The response of ENSO-CO2 flux relationship to future climate change is sensitive to the contemporary mean state of the carbonate ion concentration in the tropics. Models that simulate shift in ENSO-CO2 flux relationship simulate positive bias in surface carbonate concentration.

The fate of (micro)plastic particles in the open ocean is controlled by physical and biological processes. Here, we model the effects of biofouling on the subsurface vertical distribution of spherical, virtual plastic particles with radii of 0.01–1 mm. For the physics, four vertical velocity terms are included: advection, wind-driven mixing, tidally induced mixing, and the sinking velocity of the biofouled particle. For the biology, we simulate the attachment, growth and loss of algae on particles. We track 10,000 particles for one year in three different regions with distinct biological and physical properties: the low productivity region of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, the high productivity region of the Equatorial Pacific and the high mixing region of the Southern Ocean. The growth of biofilm mass in the euphotic zone and loss of mass below the euphotic zone result in the oscillatory behaviour of particles, where the larger (0.1–1.0 mm) particles have much shorter average oscillation lengths ( 5000 m). Our results show that the vertical movement of particles is mainly affected by physical (wind-induced mixing) processes within the mixed layer and biological (biofilm) dynamics below the mixed layer. Furthermore, positively buoyant particles with radii of 0.01–1.0 mm can sink far below the euphotic zone and mixed layer in regions with high near-surface mixing or high biological activity. This work can easily be coupled to other models to simulate open-ocean biofouling dynamics, in order to reach a better understanding of where ocean (micro)plastic ends up.

The Beaufort Gyre is a key feature of the Arctic Ocean, acting as a reservoir for freshwater in the region. Depending on whether the prevailing atmospheric circulation in the Arctic is anticyclonic or cyclonic, either a net accumulation or release of freshwater occurs. The sources of freshwater to the Arctic Ocean are well established and include contributions from the North American and Eurasian Rivers, the Bering Strait Pacific water inflow, sea ice meltwater, and precipitation, but their contribution to the Beaufort Gyre freshwater accumulation varies with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Here we use a Lagrangian backward tracking technique in conjunction with the 1/12‐degree resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean model to investigate how sources of freshwater to the Beaufort Gyre have changed in recent decades, focusing on increase in the Pacific water content in the gyre between the late 1980s and early 2000s. Using empirical orthogonal functions we analyze the change in the Arctic oceanic circulation that occurred between the 1980s and 2000s. We highlight a “waiting room” advective pathway that was present in the 1980s and provide evidence that this pathway was caused by a shift in the center of Ekman transport convergence in the Arctic. We discuss the role of these changes as a contributing factor to changes in the stratification, and hence potentially the biology, of the Beaufort Gyre region.

The UN General Assembly has made a unanimous decision to start negotiations to establish an international, legally-binding instrument for the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity within Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ). However, there has of yet been little discussion on the importance of this move to the ecosystem services provided by coastal zones in their downstream zone of influence. Here, we identify the ecological connectivity between ABNJ and coastal zones as critically important in the negotiation process and apply several approaches to identify some priority areas for protection from the perspective of coastal populations of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Initially, we review the scientific evidence that demonstrates ecological connectivity between ABNJ and the coastal zones with a focus on the LDCs. We then use ocean modelling to develop a number of metrics and spatial maps that serve to quantify the connectivity of the ABNJ to the coastal zone. We find that the level of exposure to the ABNJ influences varies strongly between countries. Similarly, not all areas of the ABNJ are equal in their impacts on the coastline. Using this method, we identify the areas of the ABNJ that are in the most urgent need of protection on the grounds of the strength of their potential downstream impacts on the coastal populations of LDCs. We argue that indirect negative impacts of the ABNJ fishing, industrialisation and pollution, communicated via oceanographic, cultural and ecological connectivity to the coastal waters of the developing countries should be of concern.

For the countries bordering the tropical Western Indian Ocean (TWIO), living marine resources are vital for food security. However, this region has largely escaped the attention of studies investigating potential impacts of future climate change on the marine environment. Understanding how marine ecosystems in coastal East Africa may respond to various climatic stressors is vital for the development of conservation and other ocean management policies that can help to adapt to climate change impacts on natural and associated human systems. Here, we use a high-resolution (1/4°) ocean model, run under a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) until the end of the 21st century, to identify key regionally important climate change stressors over the East African Coastal Current (EACC) that flows along the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania. We also discuss these stressors in the context of projections from lower resolution CMIP5 models. Our results indicate that the main drivers of dynamics and the associated ecosystem response in the TWIO are different between the two monsoon seasons. Our high resolution model projects weakening of the Northeast monsoon (December–February) winds and slight strengthening of the Southeast monsoon (May–September) winds throughout the course of the 21st century, consistent with CMIP5 models. The projected shallower mixed layers and weaker upwelling during the Northeast Monsoon considerably reduce the availability of surface nutrients and primary production. Meanwhile, primary production during the Southeast monsoon is projected to be relatively stable until the end of the century. In parallel, a widespread warming of up to 5 °C is projected year-round with extreme events such as marine heatwaves becoming more intense and prolonged, with the first year-long event projected to occur as early as the 2030s. This extreme warming will have significant consequences for both marine ecosystems and the coastal populations dependent on these marine resources. These region-specific stressors highlight the importance of dynamic ocean features such as the upwelling systems associated with key ocean currents. This indicates the need to develop and implement a regional system that monitors the anomalous behaviour of such regionally important features. Additionally, this study draws attention to the importance of investment in decadal prediction methods, including high resolution modelling, that can provide information at time and space scales that are more directly relevant to regional management and policy making.

This article is part of the Topical Collection on Advances and Future Directions in Earth System Modelling Purpose of Review Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity. HTH, EB, PM, PH, MJR, and MB acknowledge the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme. MJR, DP, and TA acknowledge PRIMAVERA funding received from the European Commission under Grant Agreement 641727 of the Horizon 2020 research programme. EP, TK, and AY were supported by the National Environmental Research Council (NERC) National Capability Science Multi-Centre funding for the UK Earth System Modelling project through grant NE/N018036/1 and the EU Horizon 2020 CRESCENDO project, grant number 641816. BFK is supported by ONR N00014-17-1-2963, NSF 1350795 and 1655221, and NOAA NA19OAR4310366. RB was supported by NSF’s Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) Project under NSF Award PLR-1425989. DPM is supported by NERC NE/R000999/1. TA acknowledges PRACE for awarding us access to MN4 supercomputer, hosted by BSC, Spain. The CESM1.3 simulations are completed through the International Laboratory for High Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)—a collaboration among QNLM, TAMU, and NCAR, from which QZ, BG, and FC acknowledge funding. LZ was supported by NSF‐GEO 1912357 and NOAA CVP NA19OAR4310364.

For simulations intended to study the influence of anthropogenic forcing on climate, temporal stability of the Earth's natural heat, freshwater, and biogeochemical budgets is critical. Achieving such coupled model equilibration is scientifically and computationally challenging. We describe the protocol used to spin‐up the UK Earth system model (UKESM1) with respect to preindustrial forcing for use in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Due to the high computational cost of UKESM1's atmospheric model, especially when running with interactive full chemistry and aerosols, spin‐up primarily used parallel configurations using only ocean/land components. For the ocean, the resulting spin‐up permitted the carbon and heat contents of the ocean's full volume to approach equilibrium over 5,000 years. On land, a spin‐up of 1,000 years brought UKESM1's dynamic vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs toward near‐equilibrium. The end‐states of these parallel ocean‐ and land‐only phases then initialized a multicentennial period of spin‐up with the full Earth system model, prior to this simulation continuing as the UKESM1 CMIP6 preindustrial control (piControl). The realism of the fully coupled spin‐up was assessed for a range of ocean and land properties, as was the degree of equilibration for key variables. Lessons drawn include the importance of consistent interface physics across ocean‐ and land‐only models and the coupled (parent) model, the extreme simulation duration required to approach equilibration targets, and the occurrence of significant regional land carbon drifts despite global‐scale equilibration. Overall, the UKESM1 spin‐up underscores the expense involved and argues in favor of future development of more efficient spin‐up techniques.

arge‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

With the ever-growing interest from the general public towards understanding climate science, it is becoming increasingly important that we present this information in ways accessible to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces and use them to explain the process of modelling the earth system and to engage with the wider community. Scientific data is almost always represented graphically either in figures or in videos. By adding audio to the visualisation of model data, the combination of music and imagery provides additional contextual clues to aid in the interpretation. Furthermore, the audiolisation of model data can be employed to generate interesting and captivating music, which can not only reach a wider audience, but also hold the attention of the listeners for extended periods of time.Each of the six pieces presented in this work was themed around either a scientific principle or a practical aspect of earth system modelling. These pieces demonstrate the concepts of a spin up, a pre-industrial control run, multiple historical experiments, and the use of several future climate scenarios to a wider audience. They also show the ocean acidification over the historical period, the changes in circulation, the natural variability of the pre-industrial simulations, and the expected rise in sea surface temperature over the 20th century. Each of these pieces were arranged using different musical progression, style and tempo. All six pieces were performed by the digital piano synthesizer, TiMidity++, and were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. The videos all show the progression of the data in time with the music and a brief description of the methodology is posted alongside the video. To disseminate these works, links to each piece were published on the lead author's personal and professional social media accounts. The reach of these works was also analysed using YouTube's channel monitoring toolkit for content creators, YouTube studio.

We present analysis of Arctic sea ice and ocean dynamics in the ensemble of the UK Earth System Model (UK ESM1) simulations completed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) protocol. The focus of the investigation is on the future changes in the Arctic sea ice and oceanic connections and on the impact of the nutrient advection on the Arctic marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems. Changes in the balance of the oceanic inflows from the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans are found to have a first order effect on the watermasses and nutrients balances in the central Arctic Ocean. The simulations show that the total primary production in the Arctic Ocean is increased by 100% in the 2090s as compared to the present climate. This is caused by higher nutrients availability in the Atlantic inflowing waters and prolonged ice- free season. The faster connections through the Arctic and milder oceanic environment allows species to survive through the winter and from the second half of the century the Arctic Ocean could become a key oceanic gateway connecting the global oceans. The study is supported from the project APEAR (NE/R012865/1) NERC-BMBF and from the NERC ACSIS Programme (NE/N018044/1).

Scientific data is almost always represented graphically either in figures or in videos. With the ever-growing interest from the general public towards understanding climate science, it is becoming increasingly important that we present this information in ways accessible to non-experts. In this pilot study, we use time series data from the first United Kingdom Earth System model (UKESM1) to create six procedurally generated musical pieces and use them to test whether we can use music to engage with the wider community. Each of these pieces is based around a unique part of UKESM1's ocean component model, either in terms of a scientific principle or a practical aspect of modelling. In addition, each piece is arranged using a different musical progression, style and tempo. These pieces were performed by the digital piano synthesizer, TiMidity++, and were published on the lead author's YouTube channel. The videos all show the time progression of the data in time with the music and a brief description of the methodology is posted below the video. To disseminate these works, a link to each piece was published on the lead authors personal and professional social media accounts. The reach of these works was analysed using YouTube's channel monitoring toolkit for content creators, YouTube studio. In the first ninety days after the first video was published, the six pieces reached at least 251 unique viewers, and have 553 total views. We found that most of the views occurred in the fourteen days immediately after each video was published. In effect, once the concept had been demonstrated to an audience, there was reduced enthusiasm from that audience to return to it immediately. This suggests that to use music effectively as an science outreach tool, the works needs to reach new audiences or new and unique content needs to be delivered to a returning audience.

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.

The ocean's ability to take up and store CO2 is a key factor for understanding past and future climate variability. However, qualitative and quantitative understanding of surface‐to‐interior pathways, and how the ocean circulation affects the CO2 uptake, is limited. Consequently, how changes in ocean circulation may influence carbon uptake and storage and therefore the future climate remains ambiguous. Here we quantify the roles played by ocean circulation and various water masses in the meridional redistribution of carbon. We do so by calculating streamfunctions defined in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and latitude coordinates, using output from a coupled biogeochemical‐physical model. By further separating DIC into components originating from the solubility pump and a residual including the biological pump, air‐sea disequilibrium, and anthropogenic CO2 , we are able to distinguish the dominant pathways of how carbon enters particular water masses. With this new tool, we show that the largest meridional carbon transport occurs in a pole‐to‐equator transport in the subtropical gyres in the upper ocean. We are able to show that this pole‐to‐equator DIC transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)‐related DIC transport are mainly driven by the solubility pump. By contrast, the DIC transport associated with deep circulation, including that in Antarctic bottom water and Pacific deep water, is mostly driven by the biological pump. As these two pumps, as well as ocean circulation, are widely expected to be impacted by anthropogenic changes, these findings have implications for the future role of the ocean as a climate‐buffering carbon reservoir.

Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

We document the development of the first version of the United Kingdom Earth System Model UKESM1. The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2‐ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include: a new core physical model with a well‐resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles and enhanced land management; tropospheric‐stratospheric chemistry allowing the holistic simulation of radiative forcing from ozone, methane and nitrous oxide; two‐moment, five‐species, modal aerosol; and ocean biogeochemistry with two‐way coupling to the carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols. The complexity of coupling between the ocean, land and atmosphere physical climate and biogeochemical cycles in UKESM1 is unprecedented for an Earth system model. We describe in detail the process by which the coupled model was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities, and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components. Overall the model performs well, with a stable pre‐industrial state, and good agreement with observations in the latter period of its historical simulations. However, global mean surface temperature exhibits stronger‐than‐observed cooling from 1950 to 1970, followed by rapid warming from 1980 to 2014. Metrics from idealised simulations show a high climate sensitivity relative to previous generations of models: equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 5.4 K, transient climate response (TCR) ranges from 2.68 K to 2.85 K, and transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) is 2.49 K/TtC to 2.66 K/TtC.

Deep-water benthic communities in the ocean are almost wholly dependent on near-surface pelagic ecosystems for their supply of energy and material resources. Primary production in sunlit surface waters is channelled through complex food webs that extensively recycle organic material, but lose a fraction as particulate organic carbon (POC) that sinks into the ocean interior. This exported production is further rarefied by microbial breakdown in the abyssal ocean, but a residual ultimately drives diverse assemblages of seafloor heterotrophs. Advances have led to an understanding of the importance of size (body mass) in structuring these communities. Here we force a size-resolved benthic biomass model, BORIS, using seafloor POC flux from a coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model, NEMO-MEDUSA, to investigate global patterns in benthic biomass. BORIS resolves 16 size classes of metazoans, successively doubling in mass from approximately 1 μg to 28 mg. Simulations find a wide range of seasonal responses to differing patterns of POC forcing, with both a decline in seasonal variability, and an increase in peak lag times with increasing body size. However, the dominant factor for modelled benthic communities is the integrated magnitude of POC reaching the seafloor rather than its seasonal pattern. Scenarios of POC forcing under climate change and ocean acidification are then applied to investigate how benthic communities may change under different future conditions. Against a backdrop of falling surface primary production (-6.1%), and driven by changes in pelagic remineralization with depth, results show that while benthic communities in shallow seas generally show higher biomass in a warmed world (+3.2%), deep-sea communities experience a substantial decline (-32%) under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Our results underscore the importance for benthic ecology of reducing uncertainty in the magnitude and seasonality of seafloor POC fluxes, as well as the importance of studying a broader range of seafloor environments for future model development.

Despite the plethora of studies on swallow-water invertebrates, almost nothing is known about the evolution and population structure of deep-sea species at the global scale. The aim of this study was to assess phylogeographic patterns of a common and cosmopolitan, predominantly abyssal sea cucumber, Psychropotes longicauda, based on samples from the Atlantic, Southern, Indian and Pacific oceans. Sequences of the mitochondrial COI and 16S genes were analysed for 128 specimens of P. longicauda. In addition, temporal genetic variation was investigated at one site, the Porcupine Abyssal Plain, NE Atlantic Ocean over a period of 34 years. Two distinct lineages within the global distribution were identified. The sister clades probably could be classified as separate species based on the observed genetic divergence (>5.0%) and phylogenetic reconstruction with indications of a Southern Hemisphere origin. Moreover, significant population differentiation was detected between the North Atlantic and localities in both the Pacific and Indian oceans. No bathymetric structuring was detected among lineages. Temporal genetic shifts were detected in a time series of samples from 1977 to 2011. Our data confirm the previously suspected cryptic species diversity throughout the wide distributional range previously attributed to the single species P. longicauda. The presence of sympatric species in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans has been underestimated by previous morphological analyses. The differentiation at the population level detected in the main lineages among the four oceans could suggest restricted gene flow despite wide-scale dispersal potential of the species.

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake in the Acknowledgements section.